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- ACTIVE Surly
great deal of of} lies beneath Alaska's North Slope and the adjacent
oceans. Some of this of} approximately 12 billion barrels recovered to
date-has been produced from the supergiant Pru~hoe Bay field and nearby
areas. However, despite evidence of large of} deposits beneath the outer
continental shelf (OCS) off Alaska's North Slope, no of] has yet been
produced from it. The Bering Sea off Alaska' s west coast also has received
attention from the of} industry, but no significant evidence of commercial
deposits has been found there.
Producing of} from beneath the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Bering seas is
difficult. The areas are remote from major industrial centers, transporta-
tion, and refinery facilities (except those close to Pru~hoe Bay). The
weather is harsh; ice covers Be areas and threatens human structures for
varying amounts of time during the year, and the area is dark for long
periods in winter. Although engineering and technology have overcome
many of these obstacles, increased awareness of the environmental and
socioeconomic effects of oil and gas activities has resulted in increased
environmental regulation of those activities and controversies over whether
and how Hey should occur.
To help provide a scientific basis for evaluating these concerns, the U.S.
House of Representatives, in its fiscal-year 1991 appropriations report for
the Department of the Interior, requested Hat He Minerals Management
Service (MMS) seek advice from He National Research Council (NRC)
about the adequacy of scientific and technical information relevant to the
potential environmental consequences of three Alaskan lease sales planned
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2 OCSDECISlONS: ALASKA
for 1991 and 1992: Sale 126 (Chukchi Sea), Sale 124 (Beautort Sea), and
Sale 107 (Navarin Basin in the Bering Sea). MMS also asked the NRC to
consider options other than conducting additional studies in case Me
information was inadequate in any respect. In response, the NRC convened
the Committee to Review Alaskan Outer Continental Shelf Environmental
Information, which has prepared this report.
The committee considered the adequacy of scientific information relevant
to decisions concerning all phases of the OCS oil and gas process: leasing,
exploration, development, production, and decommissioning. It also took
seriously MMS's request for a review of options other Man conducting
additional studies. The committee was not asked and did not consider whe-
ther any of! and gas activities shout be undertaken in Alaska.
It soon became clear to the committee that industry interest-and hence
the potential for any effects of OCS activities-was much lower in the
Navarin Basin than in the Chukchi and Beautort seas. Indeed, after Me
committee began its work, Sale 107 was deferred for further review until
1996. Therefore, this report focuses much more on the Chukchi and Beau-
fort seas than it does on He Bering Sea.
To obtain information for its review, the committee read environmental
impact statements for the three lease sales, technical reports obtained from
MMS's Alaska Region; synthesis reports; peer-reviewed publications;
several relevant NRC reports; and documents obtained from Be Norm
Slope Borough, the oil industry, and other organizations. In addition, the
committee received briefings from MMS in Washington, D.C., and
Anchorage, Alaska. In Alaska, the committee visited Barrow and Prudhoe
Bay and adjacent oil fields. It received briefings in close places and held
discussions with residents and elected officials of Barrow and Be Norm
Slope Borough and with officials of ARCO, British Petroleum, and Alaska
Clean Seas. In Anchorage, Be committee received briefings from state
officials and representatives of environmental organizations, consulting
firms, Be University of Alaska, and others. It also received briefings from
officials of ARCO, Mobil, and Shell at its meeting in Irvine, California.
The committee's major conclusions and its discussion of possible
alternatives to additdonal studies are summarized below. Chapter ~ presents
detailed recommendations for additional studies Mat would be useful for
OCS decisions, particularly those concerning development, production, and
· . .
decommissioning.
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ADEQUACY OF I~FO~T10
I ON OCS DECISIONS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
The committee concluded that the environmental information currently
available for Be Chukchi, Navarin, and Beautort OCS areas is generally
adequate for leasing and exploration decisions, except with regard to effects
on the human environment (i.e., socioeconomic effects, as defined in the
OCS Lands Act). Prelease and lease-stage effects on the human environ-
ment which can begin even before any physical or biological changes take
place-are a special category of effects discussed in Chapter 6. In general,
the information available for resource geology, the physical environment,
biotic resources, spills, and mitigation and remediation activities adequately
reflects the differences between Arctic OCS areas and other U.S. OCS
areas where development and production have already occurred.
In making this determination, the committee recognized that OCS of! and
gas activities present a variety of risks to the biological and human environ-
ment, and that even with sometimes sketchy knowledge, bounds could be
put on the extent of those risks. Whether or not to accept He risks is a
policy issue, not a scientific question. MMS's Environmental Studies
Program (ESP) and of! and gas resources assessment efforts have yielded
information that is credible and useful in establishing a general characteriza-
tion of the living resources, physical conditions, social and economic
setting, and likely of! and gas resources in the Arctic OCS. Although Be
geological characterizations are sound, the resource estimates appear
conservative; this might affect any estimates of impacts and Be ability to
plan for the future.
In contrast, Be committee concluded Cat the information is often not
sufficient to support decisions about development, production, transporta-
don, and siting of onshore facilities. Much of this information, of course,
can only be obtain after exploration has identified a proposed development
site. MMS should concentrate on fewer, longer-term studies of Be living
resources, social and economic conditions, and physical processes to
develop Be additional information needed. The studies' design and results
should be peer-reviewed.
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4 OCS DECISIONS: ALASKA
~JOI I~FO~T10~ GAPS
The major information gaps concern certain aspects of He potential social
and economic impacts of OCS oil and gas activities, the extent and temporal
distribution of ice gouging, and physical oceanography and its relation to
important ecological processes. The greatest perceived and feared conse-
quences of OCS development in the Arctic OCS concern of] spills and
interference with marine mammals-especially bowhead whales Mat are
critical to the subsistence economy of Me Alaskan Natives. These fears
have been exacerbated by a lack of mutual trust among Be parties involved
and by limited public confidence in the motives of MMS, Me of! industry,
and those who oppose development. It is clear Cat substantial involvement
of all potentially affected parties, including Alaska Natives, is a prerequisite
for a successful approach to the development of Arctic OCS oil and gas
resources. It is not clear to the committee whether any additional studies
could provide enough information to satisfy all parties.
A major information need is to determine the extent and temporal
distribution of ice gouging. Gouges in the seafloor caused by the grounding
of large ice masses have been detected to water depths of more than 50
meters, and the gouges are abundant nearer the shore. However, there is
insufficient information to determine He frequency of these events, which
obviously can affect structures on the seafloor.
The model of ocean circulation that has been used is elaborate but
inevitably inaccurate because of limited spatial resolution and major
uncertainties about the physical processes and the mathematical conditions
applied to model boundaries in die water. Neverdleless, the model's output
is still a useful rough guide to the paw and fate of spilled oil, although a
simpler mode} might have been just as useful and credible. Another NRC
committee recently reviewed He information available for oil and gas
leasing in over OCS areas and concluded that trajectory estimates have
relied too heavily on general circulation models (GCMs). This committee
believes He same conclusion holds for He three lease areas involved here.
With the relative lack of observations available, MMS's initial reliance on
model predictions is understandable, but as previous NRC reviews noted,
trajectory predictions must be tied more closely to field observations Han
Hey have been. For developing models, the committee concluded that He
existing "botto~up" approach of trying to produce the best possible mode}
should be replaced with a "top down" or targeted approach driven by
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
specific concerns about key ecological species and processes; this would
give better focus to mode} development. For example, oceanographic mo-
dels should be driven by a need to understand formation of leads (Ion",
narrow passage of open-water passing through a region of sea ice that is
navigable by surface vessels and air-breathing mammals) in spring, which
in turn influence the migration and distribution of whales and birds.
Modeling the fate of spilled oil in ice, however, is not very refined and
requires improvement.
The MMS Environmental Studies Program (ESP) in Alaska is extensive,
substantive, and high quality. It has established a credible characterization
of social and economic conditions in Northern Alaska, and it has addressed
several important questions. The program has carried out some studies that
analyze potential changes associated wig OCS development-particularly
economic impacts. However, Hat work has failed to deal adequately with
other issues that are critical to predicting and managing impacts on the
human environment during all phases of He OCS development process,
ranging from leas~ng-stage activities to the longer-term impacts of develop-
ment and production. There is a particular need for attention to the social
and cultural effects of leasing, exploration, development and pro-
duction-including He gradual or long-term changes that can be expected to
take place even in the absence of spills-as well as the broader range of
sociocultural disruptions that can result from a spill and persist for years.
As a result of omissions in the program to date, a sigruficant fraction of the
social and economic information Hat would be necessary for informed
decisions about leasing, development, production, and termination is
unavailable. As a corollary, not enough effort has been devoted to He
pragmatic questions of what steps, if any, could be taken to avoid or lessen
harmful consequences.
Finally, He committee is concerned Hat recent reductions in He budget
and staff of MMS's ESP in Alaska~specially but not exclusively in social
science disciplines-will limit He quality and quantity of future work.
~LT[~TIV[S TO ADDITIONAL STUDII S
MMS's ESP is based on He sensible premise Hat if Were is enough
information, sour decisions can be made about balancing He negative and
positive effects of development. Sometimes that is true, but in over cases
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6 OCS DECISIONS: ALASKA
it appears Cat additional studies are not cost-effective or even likely to
resolve controversies over He effects of development, no matter how much
dine and money are spent on them. Because the committee was specifically
asked to consider alternatives to additional studies, it has done so in many
places in Be report. Three examples are summarized here.
Towhead Whales
One area of great controversy concerns the effects of OCS of} and gas
development on the migration patterns of marine mammals, especially
bowhead whales. Because hunting bowheads is so important to Norm Slope
communities, Were have been many studies of the effects of noise on
bowhead behavior and migration. Despite Lose studies, the effects of noise
are not resolved, and it is not clear whether further study can provide
resolution. For this reason, the committee believes a reasonable solution is
for MMS, Be industry, and Norm Slope residents to attempt to reach
agreement on the controversial matters-such as specific times and places
Cat various activities occur- and how they should be adjusted, remedied, or
mitigated in lieu of or concurrent wig additional studies. Parties should not
have to give up rights to other remedies as a precondition to begin Be
negotiation, although a mutual agreement would imply that the agreed-on
course of action would be adhered to unless additional information showed
to everyone's satisfaction that the course of action should be modified. If
additional studies are conducted, they should be designed, implemented, and
shared by all three parties.
There is no guarantee that this approach would be successful, but it
seems unlikely Mat it could be less successful or more costly Man the
current system of dueling studies and reviews and their accompanying
delays and recriminations. The approach might also work for many other
controversial questions in Alaska and elsewhere (such as Be effectiveness
of causeway breaches for allowing fish migration). Several practitioners
have developed considerable skill in this kind of dispute resolution.
It is of the utmost importance to build effective and mutually agreeable
monitoring programs into any settlement. Monitoring is essential to
evaluate an agreement's success and to provide a basis for facilitating
similar agreements elsewhere.
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011 SPIllS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7
Although the largest spills are usually the result of marine transportation
accidents, the frequency of such accidents has declined. Blowout frequency
associated with petroleum drilling is 0.03% of wells drilled; the risk of
"significant" oil loss-more than 50,000 barrels is even more remote, at
0.01% of wells drilled. Even though large of} spills are rare, they are a
major concern in the Arctic because of the perceived inability to clean them
up or control them. It seems likely that no amount of additional study of
biotic responses to oil, of the viscosity and flammability of of} under various
conditions, or other laboratory studies or simulations of of} spills and
cleanup technology win completely allay public concern about the effects of
spills and the ability to clean them up or mitigate them. Experience with
very large marine spills indicates that current cleanup technology and
procedures need improvement and further study, especially in situ burning,
which is the only current technique wig the potential for recovering much
of the oil Tom very large spills. Nonetheless, very few experimental spills
have been performed in cold waters-or, indeed, in any OCS waters of the
United States.
The very limited experience with cold-water spills does not allow
scientists to predict confidently the effectiveness of cold-water spill counter-
measures. There are few pre-spill data from habitats affected by accidental
spills, and during a real spill, it has been difficult to set aside enough
control or reference sites to detect He effects of the spill and Be control and
cleanup methods used. Experimental spills can be planned and controlled;
pre-impact data can be collected to allow proper evaluation of spill and
control and cleanup impacts.
In addition, Be performance of spill-response teams cannot be optimum
if Hey are never permitted to practice using real oil. Perhaps more
important, Be sponges and weaknesses of spill responses cannot be
evaluated in the absence of practical experience, so sensible and appropriate
protection, mitigation, and compensation plans cannot be designed.
Mitigating Lono-Term
Socioeconomic Affects
Among He long-term nonspill socioeconomic impacts Hat need to be
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8 OCSDECISlONS: ALASKA
dealt with are the potential for cultural erosion and for socioeconomic
overadaptation (overadaptation refers to the difficulty of transferring
specialized activities and facilities to other forms of economic production).
The potential for overadaptation is exacerbated by He region's remoteness
and the limited likelihood of successful economic diversification. Among
the obvious possibilities for mitigating those foreseeable effects (as well as
for helping to create more positive effects) would be the creation of trust
funds. Working cooperatively with Me state and affected local governments
(including the Northwest Arctic Borough, as well as the North Slope
Borough), MMS could explore the potential for mitigating longer-term
effects Trough revenue sharing, as well as through other steps that could
help mitigate the coming "bust" by building up locally controlled trust
funds. If such funds were sufficiently large, they could even help cushion
the impending end of Be Pru~hoe Bay revenues, with the principal being
left intact and the annual proceeds being used to fund a significant fraction
of the boroughs' current employment and ocher costs.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
norm slope
