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Causes and Effects of
Stratospheric Ozone Reduction:
An Update
A report preparer! by the
Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion
and the
Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar
Ultraviolet Radiation
Environmental Studies Board
Commission on Natural Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1982
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report
was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the
councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine. The members of the committees responsible for
the report were chosen for their special competences and
with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than
the authors according to procedures approved by a Report
Review Committee consisting of members of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering,
and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the
National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the
Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of
advising the federal government. The Council operates in
accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy under the authority of its congressional charter
of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private,
nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The
Council has become the principal operating agency of both
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy
of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and
engineering communities. It is administered jointly by
both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The
National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of
Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences.
This study was supported by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency under Contract No. 68-02-3701.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 82-81229
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03248-2
Available from
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS OF OZONE DEPLETION
CHARLES H. KRUGER, JR. (Chairman), Stanford University
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, National Center for Atmospheric
Research
JAMES P. FRIEND, Drexel University
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona
MICHAEL B. McELROY, Harvard University
COMMITTEE ON BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF
INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION
RICHARD B. SETLOW (Chairman), Brookhaven National
Laboratory
JAMES P. FRIEND, Drexel University
MAUREEN M. HENDERSON, University of Washington
JOHN JAGGER, University of Texas at Dallas
RICHARD M. KLEIN, University of Vermont
JOHN A. PARRISH, Massachusetts General Hospital/Harvard
University
HOWARD H. SELIGER, Johns Hopkins University
WILLIAM B. SISSON, U.S. Department of Agriculture/New
Mexico State University
Staff
ADELE KING MALONE, Staff Officer
ELIZABETH G. PANGS, Administrative Assistant
MYRON F. UMAN, Senior Staff Officer
. . .
111
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ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES BOARD
DAVID PIMENTEL (Chairman), Cornell University
DANIEL A. OKUN (Vice-Chairman), University of North
Carolina
ALVIN L. ALM, Harvard University
RALPH C. D'ARGE, University of Wyoming
ALFRED M. BEETON, University of Michigan
JOHN CAIRNS, JR., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and
State University
JAMES A. FAY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MARGARET HITCHCOCK, Yale University School of Medicine
JULIUS E. JOHNSON, Dow Chemical Company
CHARLES H. KRUGER, JR., Stanford University
KAI N. LEE, University of Washington
CARL M. SHY, University of North Carolina
EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center
RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Secretary
MYRON F. UMAN, Associate Executive Secretary
1V
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COMMISSION ON NATURAL RESOURCES
ROBERT M. WHITE (Chairman), University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research
TIMOTHY ATKESON, Steptoe & Johnson
STANLEY I. AUERBACH, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
NEVILLE P. CLARK, Texas A&M University
NORMAN A. COPELAND, E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company
Inc., retired
GEORGE K. DAVIS, University of Florida, retired
JOSEPH L. FISHER, Virginia Office of Human Resources
EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
KONRAD B. KRAUSKOPF, Stanford University
CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey
NORTON NELSON, New York University Medical Center
DANIEL A. OKUN, University of North Carolina
DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University
JOHN E. TILTON, Pennsylvania State University
WALLACE D. BOWMAN, Executive Director
THEODORE M. SCHAD, Deputy Executive Director
v
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CONTENTS
PREFACE
SUMMARY
Introduction, 1
Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Reduction, 1
Biological Effects of Increased Solar Ultraviolet
Radiation, 4
PART I:
CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS OF OZONE REDUCTION
1 CURRENT STATUS
Introduction, 15
Processes Determining Ozone Concentrations, 15
Current Status of Models of the Stratosphere, 24
Monitoring and Assessment of Trends, 26
The Question of Early Detection, 27
Uncertainty, 28
Findings, 30
Recommendations, 32
PART II: BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF INCREASED SOLAR
ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION
2 INTRODUCTION
The Problem, 39
The Underlying Biological Questions, 42
3 MOLECULAR AND CELLULAR STUDIES
Summary, 47
Introduction, 49
Advances in Knowledge, 51
Research Recommendations, 60
4 ECOSYSTEMS AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Summary, 62
Introduction, 64
vii
ix
1
15
37
47
62
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Effects on Plants, 64
Effects on Domestic Animals, 69
Effects on Aquatic Organisms, 69
Research Recommendations, 72
5 DIRECT HUMAN HEALTH HAZARDS
Summary, 75
Anatomical and Optical Properties of Skin and
Blood, 76
Effects Other Than Cancer, 80
Cancer Effects, 85
Protection Against Damage from Sunlight, 112
Research Reco~Tunendations, 114
REFERENCES
GLOSSARY
LIST OF CHEMICAL SYMBOLS
APPENDIXES
A PERTURBATIONS OF THE STRATOSPHERE AND OZONE
DEPLETION
B STRATOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS--THE ROLE OF DYNAMICS,
TRANSPORT, AND CLIMATE CHANGE
C RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN STRATOSPHERIC
PHOTOCHEMISTRY
D THE MEASUREMENT OF TRACE REACTIVE SPECIES IN THE
STRATOSPHERE: A REVIEW OF RECENT RESULTS
E TREND ANALYSIS OF TOTAL OZONE
F DETECTION OF TRENDS IN THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION
OF OZONE
G THE ASSOCIATION OF DNA DAMAGE WITH CANCER-INITIATING
EVENTS
H PARTICIPANTS IN THE WORKSHOP ON BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
OF INCREASED SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION
I BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND
CONSULTANTS
viii
75
116
134
142
145
159
167
206
306
315
331
333
335
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PREFACE
The Clean Air Act, as amended in August 1977 (Part B.
Title I), is intended, in part, to foster understanding
of how human activities may affect the stratosphere, in
particular the ozone layer, and how changes in the
stratosphere, especially changes in ozone concentrations,
may affect public health and welfare. The act requires
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other
agencies to conduct studies to increase our knowledge on
these topics. The agencies must report to Congress
biennially on the results of relevant research.
In the spring of 1981, EPA asked the National Research
Council (NRC) for assistance in carrying out its responsi-
bilities under the act. The NRC was asked to provide an
assessment of the state of knowledge on ozone depletion
and its effects, to be used by EPA in preparing its
biennial report to Congress, due in January 1982.
The NRC had prepared earlier reports on these topics,
Environmental Impact of Stratospheric Flight: Biological
and Climatic Effects of Aircraft Emissions in the
Stratosphere (1975), Halocarbons: Environmental Effects
of Chlorofluoromethane Release (1976a), Halocarbons:
Effects on Stratospheric Ozone (1976b), Nitrates: An
Environmental Assessment (1978), Protection Against
Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons
(1979a), and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halocarbons:
Chemistry and Transport (1979b). The purpose of the
current study was to update these previous reports by
assessing the most recent scientific information. The
study was assigned to the Environmental Studies Board
within the Commission on Natural Resources of the NRC.
The study was divided into two parts: first, an
assessment of changes in understanding of the atmospheric
chemistry and physics of ozone depletion, and, second, an
1X
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examination of current knowledge about environmental and
human health effects of the increased intensities of
solar ultraviolet radiation that would result from
reductions in stratospheric ozone. EPA asked that the
study emphasize the assessment of biological effects.
In May 1981, the Committee on Chemistry and Physics of
Ozone Depletion and the Committee on Biological Effects
of Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation were established
under the auspices of the Environmental Studies Board.
(Biographical data on the members of the committees appear
in Appendix I.) In October 1981, EPA requested that the
committees take whatever additional time may be necessary
beyond the original contract deadline of December 21,
1981, to ensure that sufficient time was available for
consideration of the report of an international workshop
held in May 1981 under the auspices of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the U.S. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Federal
Aviation Administration, and National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (Hudson et al. 1982).
Accordingly, the period of study was extended through
March 1982.
The two committees approached their tasks in different
ways. The Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone
Depletion commissioned six consultants to review current
developments in three areas: (1) laboratory measurements
and modeling, (2) measurements in the stratosphere, and
(3) understanding of stratospheric perturbations and
trends. The consultants' papers were reviewed by
independent peer reviewers. The commissioned papers and
peer reviews along with successive drafts of the report
of the NASA/WMO workshop provided the base of information
from which the committee's report was developed. The
commissioned papers are included as Appendixes A through
F.
The Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar
Ultraviolet Radiation organized a workshop that was held
on July 30-31, 1981, at the National Academy of Sciences
in Washington, D.C. Approximately 30 scientists who were
active in research or familiar with the current literature
participated, including the committee. Participants
presented and assessed the information that had become
available since the NRC (1979a) report, covering three
topics: (1) molecular and cellular studies, (2) ecosystem
effects, and (3) human health effects. The committee
members drew on the presentations and discussions at the
workshop, the work of the Panel to Review Statistics-on
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Skin Cancer (funded by the Department of Energy and the
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences) of
the NRC Committee on National Statistics, and their own
knowledge to develop their report. Workshop participants
and several additional scientists active in the field
were asked to review the report.
pants are listed in Appendix H.
The workshop partici
The report consists of a joint summary followed by
Part I and Part II, which are from the Committee on
Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion and the
Committee on Biological Effects of Increased Solar
Ultraviolet Radiation, respectively. Of the material
included in this volume, only the summary and Parts I and
II have been critically reviewed by the NRC. Views
expressed in the commissioned papers in the appendixes
are not necessarily those of the committees.
The two committees wish to express their appreciation
to Adele King Malone, Elizabeth G. Panos, and Myron F.
Uman of the National Research Council for their
contributions in managing our study and preparing this
report. Other staff members providing assistance include
Raphael Kasper, Estelle Miller, Roseanne Price, Robert
Rooney, and Christina Shipman. We also want to thank the
members of our two committees and consultants for the
diligence and enthusiasm with which they approached our
task. We are grateful, too, for the cheerful cooperation
of personnel from EPA and NASA and for the helpful
critiques provided by those who reviewed drafts of our
consultants' papers and our report.
Our report is, as were the ones that preceded it, an
attempt to describe the current state of knowledge in
fields that are rapidly developing. The goal is to give
policy makers an independent and objective assessment of
what we know now, what we do not know, and the Prospects
for resolving current uncertainties.
will prove useful.
We hope our efforts
Charles H. Kruger, Jr., Chairman
Committee on Chemistry and Physics of Ozone Depletion
Richard B. Setlow, Chairman
Committee on Biological Effects of
Increased Solar Ultraviolet Radiation
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