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A P P E N D I X H PROCEDURES USED TO ESTIMATE AWARDS, STIPENDS, AND COSTS ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT PROGRAM SIZE Table H-1 summarizes the distribution of awards by field and level and type of award for the fiscal years 1992-1999.~ Increases are concentrated in the behavioral sciences, oral health, nursing, and health services research and in the Medical Scientist Training Program (MSTP). In addition, some postdoctoral awards in the clinical sciences have been reallocated to the predoctoral MSTP program.2 The number of fiscal year 1993 awards by field was esti- mated from statistics provided by NIH. The number of awards for FY 1994-1996 were estimated in several steps. The FY 1996 awards were first scaled to reflect the committee's recommended changes. These are summarized in Table H-2.3 The awards for fiscal years 1997-1999 re- main unchanged at FY 1996 levels, reflecting the committee' s recommendations for stable award levels once their recommended award levels were reached. STIPENDS The committee also recommended steps to raise stipends to make them more competitive with other programs and to maintain the purchasing power of these stipends by adjust- ing them for inflation. Specifically, He committee recom- mended: raising the real value of stipends by FY 1996 to more competitive levels: approximately $12,000 per year in 1994 dollars for predoctoral awards and approximately $25,000 for new postdoctoral awardees with less than two years of research experience; and maintaining the real value of these stipends after FY 1996 through annual increases of three percent per year (the assumed annual rate of inflation). Table H-3 summarizes the results of implementing the 153 committee's recommendations with respect to stipend in- creases. The 1994 levels reflect NIH recommendations ~ an increase of $1,200 for the predoctoral awardees and $1,000 for the first two steps of the postdoctoral awardees. Using 1994 as a base and assuming an annual rate of infla- tion of 3 percent, the committee derived recommendations for 1996 stipend levels for predoctoral awardees ($12,731) and for postdoctoral awardees with less than 2 years of re- search experience ($26,523 and $27,623, respectively). The 1995 stipends were derived by linear interpolation between the 1994 and the 1996 levels. Stipends rise between 1994 and 1996 by about 12.5 percent per year for predoctoral awardees and by about 16.3 percent per year for postdoctoral awardees with less Han one year of research experience to bring their levels to the targets set by the committee. The rate of increase moderates after 1996 and reflects only He three percent per year inflation increase recommended by the committee. Because of the relatively low current level of stipends for postdoctoral awardees win less than two years experi- ence, the stipend levels of postdoctoral awardees with two or more years of experience remained unchanged in fiscal years 1994-1995. But after fiscal 1995 these stipend levels had to be adjusted in order to prevent "inversion" - i.e., a situation in which title stipend of less-experienced postdoctoral awardees is greater than He stipend of more- experienced postdoctoral awardees. This was accomplished by raising the stipend level of all postdoctoral awardees by the same amount. ESTIMATING INCREMENTAL STIPEND COSTS The committee has developed incremental cost estimates for these recommendations. These incremental costs reflect only He recommended changes in the number of awards and He stipend levels.

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APPENDIX H TABLE H-1 Committee Estimates of Trading Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel, by Field, Level and Type of Award, 1992 - 1999 Year Field and type of award19921993199419951996199719981999 Biomedical Sciences8,6879,0079,0079,0079,0079,0079,0079,007 Predoctoral awards4,7775,1715,1715,1715,1715,1715,1715,171 Fellows290360360360360360360360 Trainees4,4874,8114,8114,8114,8114,8114,8114,811 Postdoctoral awards3,9103,8363,8363,8363,8363,8363,8363,836 Fellows1,5501,5331,5331,5331,5331,5331,5331,533 Trainees2,3602,3032,3032,3032,3032,3032,3032,303 Behavioral8571,0211,1471,2741,4001,4001,4001,400 Predoctoral awards534672748824900900900900 Fellows5368768391919191 Trainees481604672741809809809809 Postdoctoral awards323349399450500500500500 Fellows65718192102102102102 Tramees258278318358398398398398 Clinical (non MSTP)3,0122,9742,9752,9182,8602,8602,8602,860 Predoctoral awards819855895895895895895895 Fellows1929202020202020 Trainees800826875875875875875875 Postdoctoral awards2,1932,1192,0802,0231,9651,9651,9651,965 Fellows646880110160160160160 Trainees2,1292,0512,0001,9051,8051,8051,8051,805 Clinical (MSTP) Predoctoral awards8068228899551,0221,0221,0221,022 Fellows00000000 Trainees8068228899551,0221,0221,0221,022 Postdoctoral awards00000000 Fellows00000000 Trainees00000000 154

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APPEND H TABLE H-1 (continued) Field and tvDe of award1992199319534195351990l>> /l>:~olet,' . ._, ~ ., if_ hi. ~..~.~ Nursing257236340420500500500500 Predoctoral awards217188290360430430430430 Fellows142112195240285285285285 Trainees757695120145145145145 Postdoctoral awards4048506070707070 Fellows1212152020202020 Trainees2836354050505050 Oral Health213224260345430430430430 Predoctoral awards7797125210290290290290 Fellows012580130130130130 Trainees7796100130160160160160 Postdoctoral awards136127135135140140140140 Fellows3522353535353535 Trainees101105100100105105105105 Health Services9496115240360360360360 Predoctoral awards353055180300300300300 Fellows001085160160160160 Trainees35304595140140140140 Postdoctoral awards5966606060606060 Fellows1217101010101010 Trainees4749505050505050 Total13,92614,38014,73315,15115,57915,57915,57915,579 Predoctoral awards7,2657,8358,1738,5959,0089,0089,0089,008 Fellows5045706868681,0461,0461,0461,046 Trainees6,7617,2657,4877,7277,9627,9627,9627,962 Postdoctoral awards6,6616,5456,5606,5556,5716,5716,5716,571 Fellows1,7381,7231,7541,8001,8601,8601,8601,860 Trainees4,9234,8224,8064,7564,7114,7114,7114,711 155

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APPENDIX H TABLE H-2 Recommended Award Levels for FY 1996, by Field Field Number of awards Biomedical Behavioral Cl~n~cal non-MSTP MSTP Nursing Oral Health Health Services 9,007 1,400 3,994 2,972 1,022 500 426 360 Table H-4 summarizes the budgetary implications of these recommendations. The budget increases by $116 mil- lion between 1993 and 1999, a rise of 33 percent, or an annual rate of increase of 5.4 percent per year. The cost increase associated with the committee's recommendation to raise the number of awards is roughly one percent per year; the remainder, roughly 4.4 percent per year, is gener- ated from the committee's recommendation to increase sti- pend levels to more competitive levels and to maintain this competitiveness through automatic annual cost of living in- creases. The costs associated with the recommended increases in the number of awards and the stipend levels are also dis- played in Table H-4. The estimated are displayed annually for the period 1993-1999 by type of award (i.e., predoctoral vs. postdoctoral, and fellowship vs. traineeship). Columns (5) and (6) summarize the effects of increasing the number of awards on the training budget. These esti- mates hold average training costs constant at 1993 levels. Thus, the cost changes reflect only changes in the number of awards recommended. Total training costs rise by roughly $22 million, or 6 percent between 1993 and 1999. The aver- age annual rate of increase is less than one percent. All of the increases are concentrated in the years 1994-1996, the period over which the committee's recommendations are imple- mented. Practically all of He cost increase occurs in predoctoral awards, reflecting the committee's recommen dation for reallocation from postdoctoral to predoctoral awards. The incremental costs associated with both the recom- mended increases in awards and stipends are displayed in columns (14) and (15~. Incremental costs, summarized in columns (8~-~10), are derived by multiplying the recom- mended stipend increases by the number of awards affected by these increases. Recall that, for the years 1994 and 1995, the recommended stipend increases were awarded only to postdoctoral awardees with two or less years of research experience. The average fraction of postdoctoral awarders with two years or less in 1993 and 1994 was used to esti- mate He number of awards affected by He recommended stipend increase for fiscal year 1995.4 For subsequent years it was assumed Hat all postdoctorates were affected. These incremental costs are cumulated in columns (11~-~13~. The costs of He recommended stipend increases are sum- marized in Table H-5. These increases will cost an esti- mated $94 million-roughly 26 percent of He 1993 ~ain- ing budget and 81 percent of He $116 million cost increment associated with all of He committee's recom- mendations. On an annual basis, these increases will aver- age out to be roughly 4.4 percent of He 1993 budget, con- cen~ated mainly in the years 1994-1996. The annual increases for He years 1997-1999 are roughly 2.5 percent per year. NOTES 1. These numbers exclude NRSA support for research training through Me MARC program and training in Primary Care Research. 2. In particular, 200 postdoctoral traineeships in Me non-MSTP clini- cal sciences programs are reallocated to predoctoral traineeships in the MSTP program. 3. The scaling-up was accomplished by linear interpolation in the be- havioral and MSTP programs. The rate of increase for the other fields reflected the Committees judgment about Me capability of the training system to absorb these increases. The increases by type of award within fields also reflects the Comm~ttee's wish to increase the relative impor- tance of predoctoral awards in the clinical sciences and in oral health and health services research. 4. Individuals with more than two years of research experience con- stituted about 37 percent of Me postdoctoral fellows and roughly 30 per- cent of the postdoctoral trainees in BY 1992. TABLE H-3 Recommended Stipend Levels, 1993-1999 Predoctoral Year Awards 1993 $8,800 1994 $10,000 1995 $11,365 1996 $12,731 1997 $13,113 1998 $13,506 1999 $13 911 $18,600 $19,600 $23,061 $26,523 $27,318 $28,138 $28,982 $19,700 $20,700 $24,161 $27,623 $28,418 $29,238 $30,082 . $25,600 $26,900 $25,600 $26,900 $25,600 $26,900 $29,062 $30,362 $29,857 $31,157 $30,677 $31,977 $31,521 $32,821 $28,200 $29,500 $30,800 $28,200 $29,500 $30,800 $28,200 $29,500 $30,800 $31,662 $32,962 $34,262 $32,457 $33,757 $35,057 $33,277 $34,577 $35,877 $34,121 $35,421 $36,721 $32,300 $32,300 $32,300 $35,762 $36,557 $37,377 $38,221 156

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APPENDIX H to^ I i_, I ~ I ~ ~1~1 ~ ~ ~ l o 321 ~ ~ ~] ~ 5 ~ tt_ He ~ UP ~ loo a a loo V~ V~ V~ ~ ~ ~_' _ OY ~ oo _ ~ ~ _ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ e ~ e e e ~ ~ _ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ _ _ _ ~ ~ ~_ u) O _ 0\ ~b ~U' e - t- -~ U~ ~00 - C~ CQ O - ~ \0 ~ ~ ~00 m] ~ ~ _ - ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~- , ~_ ~ d 1^ ~ oo O ~- - ~t ~_ _ _ _ ~ ~ C~ ~O d ~ 3 o ~ ~ ~ _ ~D oo ~ oo C~ oo ~ _ ~ ~ Q ~Ei ~ o _ ~ 5 ,- _ Og ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ _ Ch ~) ~ ~, d . ~ ~ 00 ~ O ~ \0 ~_ ~ _ _ - , = O C~ ~ 8 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~' ~ ~ - o~ ~ _ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Z ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o o ~ ~ ~ _ C~ _ ~C,) ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ^ ^ ^ ~ . ~ oo o o ~ ~ ~_ _ _ -~- ~ ~ ~ o ~ u) ~ ~ - ~ ~ o oo - ~ ~ ~]. ~ 8 ~ ~ ~ ~ o d _ _ ^ _ _1 = U) ~ dR dR bE bE UR b ~ ~co 3 a, ~ 0 0 0 ~ ~ _ ~ ~ o o oe ~ ~ ~ ~: ~ ~ ~ O O O ~ ~ ~ ~ aa a~ _ ^ _ O t - ) _ 00 00 00 00 e~ ~U) ~ ~ ~ U~ t~ ~ ~ t- ~ C~ ~ C~ ~ C ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~_ _ _4 _ - _' _ ~ e 1_ ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ $ _ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ _ _ _ ~ _ 1^0 e4' ~ ~ ~_ _ ~~ U} 1^ ~_, U, _ _I _ _. _ _ O C) ~ 00 ~00 C~ ~ ~ C ~0\ o o oo oo oo oo oo ~ _ 3 0\~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ O _ _ ~ oo oo oo oo [- '- qi; - _ _ _ ~ _ o~ o~ _ C~ C~ ~- , ~ ~D oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ ] ~te t_ C~\ 0\ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~_I ~ t~ t~ ~ ~ ~ ~ E _ oe ~c`. ~ -~ .~ 3 ~ ~ _ _~__- aa w ~ ~ e~e ~ ~ t_ 00 < ~ 0\ 0\ ~ 0\ ~ 0\ 0\ ~kl e cr o~ o, o, ox o~ o~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 157 aa aa ae a~ ~ a ~ oo ~ ox - oo ~ ~ C~ C~ - _ ~ o C~ ~ ~ _, _ ~ ~ oo ~ o ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ _ oo co ~ ax o o - C~ ~ C~ ~ - o oo ~ C~ oo ~ ~ _ c~ 0 ~ oo ~ a~ o oo ~ oo ~ o ~ ~ ~ _ oo ~ ~ e~ - ~ ~ ~ - ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ - ~ t- - ' n N ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ o, o c~ ~ - - ~ - O ~ d cr, O ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ o oo ~ - oN ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ oo cr, - ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ - ~ o ~ 0 ~ oo ~ r~ ~ ~ _ e~ C~ ~ - ~ _. O O - - ~ O O ~ ~ CS, O ~t ~ t~ 00 00 ~ _ ~ _ ~ ~ %9 - 0 00 %9 - 0 - 0 U) ~ O O O O ~ O O O - O Ol O O O O d. ~ ~ 0\ 0\ ~aa aa 00 00 00 00 00 00 _ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0\ 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ^ . ~ O O O O O O O C~1 ~ ~ C~ ~ C~ C~ Yo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ a, oN ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ - - - - ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ c~ ~ a~ o, oo ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o - - - - c~ u~ ~n O O ~ o ~ - - - ~ - oo oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~t da ~ ~t de ~ ~ 8 ~ = ~ ~ oo co oo oo oo oo o~ C~ C~ ~ ~ o~ _ _ ~ _ _ _ _ v os ~ . ~ ~ aa ~ _ 73 os ae ~

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APPENDIX H Z ~ _ ~- _ ~ ~ _ ~^} ~ of 8.e }~ if.! } ~] of 8 ~ i'' I I U. e ~ 8 g 8 fig U] CQ e ~ - ~ ~ ~ Vat ~ ~ o ~ to ~ ~ ID 0\ 0\ e e e e e ~ ~ O - ~ _ 0\ C`1 ~ 00 ~ ~- O ~ O ~ - 00 ~ _ t- ~ Cat O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e" ~ u) ~ o ~ ~ No ~ o ~ Q ~ ~ ~ ~ oo o o~ - ~ C~ ~ ~D - ~ ~D ~ oo ~ o C~ ~ oo o' o o o, ~ U' ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ U) _ C~ ~ ~o o - - ~ ~ ~ ~o ~D ~ O ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~o _ ~ `~ e. ~ 00 _ _ _ _ ~ O O _ _ ! ~ - _ c~ _ 5 Z~ ~^ 0D ed. 3 O _ ~i; ~ O ~ \0 ~ _ 00 ~ ~ - O ~D 0\ - c~ O ~ 00 00 _ c~ ~ O O1 \0 ~ - - O 0\ ~ O \0 - O `0 ~ ~ \0 _ _ O - O ~ O 0\ ~ oo ~ o~ oo oo 0\ Ch - ~ t- _ _ _ ~ V~ ~ V~ ~ ~ ~ O O O oo O - O O O e e e e e e _ ~ ~ O O O 0\ 00 o0 ~ ~ c~ 0\ ~ _ u' _ ~ 0 o0 00 00 _ 0\ 0 0 0\ ~ ~D ., ~ O u) \0 00 o0 00 00 0~ 0\ 0\ ~ e~ ~ ~ O O O O 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0\ ~ c~ ~~ 3 ~ ~ oo _ _ C~ C~ oo _~ _~ _ _ _4 _4 _ C~ C~ ~ C~ oo cr, oo o ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ C~ _______ 158 "o V~ ~e ~Q 00 - o e e _ ~ 04 _' c~ _ ~ _ 00 ~ 0 a~ ~

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APPENDIX H TABLE H-5 Costs of Recommended Stipend Increases, 1994-1999 Year Predoctoral Postdoctoral Total Percent . . 1994 $9,806 $2,427 $12,233 3.44% 1995 $11,732 $8,394 $20,126 5.66% 1996 $12,296 $22,739 $35,035 9.85% 1997 $3,441 $5,230 $8,671 2.44% 1998 $3,540 $5,387 $8,927 2.51 % 1999 $3,648 $5,545 $9,193 2.58% 1994-1999 $44,463 $49,722 $94,185 26.47 % ; __ a As a percent of 1993 training budget. 159

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