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1
Introduction
Census data collection involves four key steps: (1) the construction of an
address frame; (2) an initial process to obtain responses that can be linked to the
address frame; (3) a follow-up process to obtain responses from those not cov-
ered in the initial process; and (4) a coverage assessment process that estimates
the size of the population not covered through the initial and follow-up processes.
The design of a census data collection process in essence amounts to decid-
ing which methods of identification, enumeration, response, and coverage im-
provement should be applied at each of the steps; whether sampling methods (and
the corresponding estimation methods) should be used at any of the four steps;
and, if sampling methods are used, which methods and at which steps.
The two strongest criticisms leveled against the 1990 census are that unit
costs increased significantly, continuing a trend that began with the 1970 census,
and that the problem of differential undercount by race persisted and possibly
worsened, despite a large investment in programs that were intended to improve
coverage (see, e.g., U.S. General Accounting Office, 1992~. These criticisms
have contributed to the growing momentum and advocacy for fundamental change
in census operations. In response to these criticisms, the Census Bureau is
considering an unprecedented level of innovation for the 2000 census. As part of
that effort, officials at the Department of Commerce and the Census Bureau
requested a panel study by the National Research Council's Committee on
National Statistics to provide independent technical evaluations of candidate
methodologies.
15
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6
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
THE ROLE OF THE PANEL
The Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methods studied feasible methods
for the census not only for 2000, but also for 2010 and beyond. We have a
mandate to make recommendations for features of census design that should be
investigated and developed for censuses after the next one. Some features of
these future designs could and should be tested in the near term and further
developed in conjunction with the 2000 census, even though they might not be
fully implemented until subsequent censuses. Our deliberations led us to con-
sider all demographic data systems, including current estimates, sample surveys,
and tabulations of administrative records.
The panel had four basic tasks: (1) identify designs to be investigated for the
2000 census; (2) evaluate proposed research on alternative census designs; (3)
evaluate the results of the research and the selection of census designs for further
consideration, in particular for the series of census tests that begin in 1995; and
(4) recommend census designs to be explored for 2010 and succeeding years.
The determination of methods for conducting the decennial census must take
into account the information requirements placed on the census in its role as a key
component of the federal statistical system. Data collected by the statistical
system can be classified according to one of three levels of population coverage:
(1) basic information-age, race, and ethnic origin to satisfy the requirements
of the Constitution and the Voting Rights Act is collected from 100 percent of the
population on the decennial census short form; (2) information that must be
reliable for small geographic areas and subpopulations-e.g., education, occupa-
tion, income- is currently collected from a large sample of the national popula-
tion on the decennial census long form; (3) information for which timeliness is
more important than geographic detail, such as unemployment rates and statistics
on participation in federal entitlement programs, is now gathered by smaller
sample surveys.
Throughout our study, the panel has recognized the link between require-
ments and methods, although thorough examination of census requirements is
beyond the scope of this panel. Our cognate panel, the Panel on Census Require-
ments in the Year 2000 and Beyond, is charged with assessing the needs for data
currently collected in the decennial census. Both studies address issues of meth-
odology but approach these issues from different perspectives. In considering
alternative methods, the Panel on Census Requirements has been primarily con-
cerned with implications for content and possible effects on public acceptance of
results. That panel has also undertaken a more intensive review of the current
census cost structure. Our primary attention has been given to technical issues of
implementation and evaluation of promising methodologies.
Our evaluations of alternative census methods emphasize the implications
for differential coverage and census costs, but not to the exclusion of other
considerations. For example, measures of gross census error are important in
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INTRODUCTION
17
evaluating the effectiveness of proposed methods for increasing census response,
such as distributing unaddressed questionnaires, offering the option of telephone
response, and using special "tool-kit" enumeration methods in certain small geo-
graphic areas. We believe that census methodology should strive to minimize not
only omissions (that produce undercounts) but also erroneous enumerations (that
produce overcounts). All undercounts and overcounts complicate the task of
accurately measuring census net coverage. Undercounts and overcounts that
arise from definitional problems c.g., a person is erroneously counted in one
block and omitted from the correct adjacent block essentially balance and are
not of much additional concern. But undercounts and overcounts that are non-
uniformly distributed among particular areas or types of people lead to mis-
distribution of the estimated population, even when such errors balance at larger
levels of aggregation.
The concept of total information error over a decennial period is a useful
criterion against which to evaluate alternative methods for collecting small-area
data that have traditionally been collected for a sample of respondents during the
decennial census using a longer questionnaire. Proposals for a large, continuous
survey of households and for other methods to improve intercensal estimates
(e.g., expanded use of administrative records) should be evaluated by considering
the needs for information with cross-sectional versus temporal accuracy. This
criterion is driven by information requirements and, once established, can be used
to judge alternative methods intended to address these requirements.
The panel has had regular contact with several official advisory groups that
are reviewing the planning for the 2000 census. Early in 1991, the Department of
Commerce established a Task Force on the Year 2000 Census to provide an
organizational structure for the examination of issues regarding the 2000 census.
The task force comprises a technical committee, a policy committee, and an
advisory committee. The technical committee consists primarily of experienced
professional staff from the Census Bureau. The policy committee includes repre-
sentatives from other federal statistical agencies. The advisory committee mem-
bership includes representatives of state and local government, minority, and
other interested professional organizations.
Initially, the technical committee of the task force worked with the Census
Bureau to construct a set of 14 census design alternatives. Each alternative was
characterized by one or more unique design components; each was also judged to
have the potential to meet the current demands of the decennial census. Of the 14
designs, 6 built on the basic structure of the 1990 census, adding different provi-
sions: multiple ways of responding to the census, varying degrees of sampling
and statistical estimation, and targeted methods to overcome barriers to enumera-
tion. Two designs relied entirely or to a very significant extent on administrative
records. Four designs would have collected data on fewer topics than have been
covered in recent decennial censuses. Two designs proposed collecting census
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8
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
data in two stages or through continuous measurement in the decade following
the census year.
The panel's first report to the Census Bureau in December 1992 raised
questions about the 14-design approach. Subsequently, the Census Bureau de-
cided to remove its original set of 14 alternative census designs from further
consideration. Instead, the 1995 census test will evaluate promising components
of the original alternative designs. The panel's September 1993 interim report
strongly supported this reorientation of the 2000 census planning process. The
interim report contained 35 recommendations, many of which suggested design
components for inclusion in the 1995 census test (in response to the first element
of our charge). We gave particular attention to methods with potential to reduce
either census costs or differentials in coverage.
Since the preparation of the panel's interim report, the Census Bureau has
released two key documents (discussed below) the 1995 Census Test Design
Recommendation and the Test Design Plan that identify census design compo-
nents to be examined in 1995 and discuss plans for testing and evaluating these
components. In this report, we review the progress in 2000 census research and
development and, in keeping with our third task, evaluate the selection of design
components for inclusion in the 1995 census test. We also study and comment on
procedures being developed to implement and evaluate the 1995 census test. We
continue to recognize the important considerations of cost and differential cover-
age, yet we also discuss issues related to other factors, such as data quality and
gross census error. Finally, we comment further on the broader research program
beyond the 1995 census test that will inform planning not only for the 2000
census but also for subsequent censuses and for other demographic data systems.
Many of our evaluations proceed with the assumption that the content of the
census short form in 2000 will not be significantly changed from its 1990 version.
We further assume that the primary instrument for collecting short-form informa-
tion in the 2000 census will remain the mail questionnaire, the primary mode of
data collection for the past four censuses (Goldfield, 1992~.
Recent reviews of the statutory requirements for census data (Bureau of the
Census, 1994a: appendix 2) indicate that legislative mandates exist for collection
of most of the items currently gathered on the decennial long form, although the
legislation typically does not mandate the vehicle for data collection. Later
chapters of this report discuss nontraditional methods i.e., an administrative
records census, a large-scale continuous measurement survey- for collecting
information that may be comparable to what is gathered on the decennial census
short or long forms. We also discuss, from a technical perspective, the pros and
cons of dividing the current long form into a series of intermediate-length ques-
tionnaires.
The next section of this chapter reviews work done by the Census Bureau as
part of its 2000 census research and development program, and the chapter con-
cludes with some observations about census planning for the year 2000 and
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INTRODUCTION
19
beyond. Chapter 2 discusses some important issues related to the first step of the
collection process, the creation of an address frame, as well as legal and opera-
tional issues. Chapter 3 considers methods with potential for improving response
and coverage at various stages of the collection process. Chapter 4 addresses the
possible use of sampling and estimation at each stage of the census data collec-
tion process particularly in following up households that do not return the mail
questionnaire and in measuring census coverage. Chapter 5 discusses the pos-
sible use of administrative records in the four collection steps, as well as for
current estimates and other demographic programs outside the decennial census.
Chapter 6 addresses issues related to alternative schemes that would spread the
collection of sample information for small areas and subpopulations over a de-
cade, rather than concentrating efforts in a single year, or would involve the use
of multiple sample forms in the decennial census.
CENSUS BUREAU RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
The Census Bureau has responded to the challenges of counting people in the
information age by undertaking an ambitious research and development program
that reflects an imaginative rethinking of census methodology. This program will
lead to the large-scale field testing in 1995 of design components that represent
fundamental change from current census practice. The two main areas in which
innovation in census design is taking place are: (1) response and coverage
improvement and (2) expanded use of sampling and estimation. Research on
response and coverage improvement has led to potentially important changes in
questionnaire design and implementation. Sampling and statistical estimation
methods are being explored to close the remaining differentials in census cover-
age while controlling, or even reducing, overall cost.
The Census Bureau will test a variety of innovative design features in the
1995 census test. Collection of reliable information in the 1995 census test about
the costs and effectiveness of census design components will be essential for their
proper evaluation particularly to inform decisions about allocating resources
between efforts to improve primary response and efforts to use sampling and
estimation methods to correct the counting operation.
Evaluation Criteria for the 2000 Census
The Census Bureau developed a set of mandatory and desirable criteria for
assessing design alternatives, and it has specified that any design being consid-
ered for the 2000 census must satisfy all mandatory criteria. Any design that
meets the mandatory criteria will then be assessed according to the set of desir-
able criteria. Six criteria are specified as mandatory by the Census Bureau for the
2000 census design:
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20
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
1. not require a constitutional amendment;
2. meet data needs for reapportionment;
3. provide data defined by law and past practice for state redistricting;
4. provide age and race/ethnic data defined by law to meet the requirements
of enforcing the Voting Rights Act;
5. protect the confidentiality of respondents; and
6. possess the ability to reduce the differential undercount.
Ten criteria are specified as desirable by the Census Bureau for the 2000
census design:
i. result in comparative cost-effectiveness with respect to other alternatives
under consideration in real terms on a per unit basis;
2. provide small-area data that the census is uniquely capable of providing;
3. provide a single, best set of census results produced by legal deadlines for
reapportionment and redistricting;
4. provide an overall high level of coverage;
5. increase the primary response rate to the census;
6. reduce the level of respondent burden;
7. minimize the degree and type of changes needed in federal or state law;
8. consider the reliance on new or unproven methods or capabilities;
9. permit full development and testing of its major design features; and
10. provide opportunities to involve the U.S. Postal Service, state and local
governments, national organizations, and other private, nonprofit, and
commercial enterprises.
We have already identified cost and differential coverage as important con-
siderations in the panel's evaluations of alternative census methods. (Later, we
describe some basic assumptions about the costs of census-taking that have guided
the panel's deliberations.) Reduction of the differential undercount appears in
the above list of mandatory criteria, along with constitutional and other legal
requirements, underscoring the importance assigned by the Census Bureau and
other interested parties to this objective of census reform.
The prominence of cost reduction as the first desirable criterion above is also
suggestive of the significant efforts being expended to achieve a more cost-
effective census design in 2000. The Census Bureau has a very detailed cost
model (Bureau of the Census, 1992b) that is used for operational planning. This
model has been used to estimate costs associated with several design components
being considered for the 2000 census, including conducting follow-up of mail
nonrespondents over a truncated period of time or on a sample basis. The cost-
effectiveness of other design components, such as the use of special enumeration
methods, has yet to be determined. The 1995 census test should produce better
information about costs and benefits for such components. Cost estimates for the
continuous measurement option should become firmer when the product is more
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INTRODUCTION
21
clearly defined and a small-scale prototype survey is in operation. Similarly,
further experience with the statistical use of records from administrative data
systems should lead to more reliable estimates of the cost of an administrative
records census.
Some relevant criteria are not explicitly identified in the above lists: in
considering proposed design innovations, the Census Bureau must address poten-
tial problems with erroneous enumerations. The 1990 census had approximately
11 million erroneous enumerations (the largest number recorded to date). As
noted earlier, many of these errors result from minor definitional problems and
essentially balance at larger geographic areas of interest, but errors that are
nonuniformly distributed across the population can reduce the accuracy of census
results. Without careful implementation, such innovations as the use of multiple
response modes and new fostering procedures could exacerbate the problem of
gross census errors. Aggressive research will be needed to develop techniques to
prevent erroneous or duplicate enumerations during a census with multiple re-
sponse modes or new fostering procedures.
One-Number Census
With regard to the third desirable criterion above, the Census Bureau has
developed the concept of a "one-number census" that would provide "the best
possible single set of results by legal deadlines, . . . based on an appropriate
combination of counting, assignment, and statistical techniques" (Miskura, 1993~.
In this definition, counting refers to the full array of methods used for direct
contact with respondents, including mail questionnaires, personal visits, and tele-
phone calls. Assignment refers to the use of evidence from administrative records
to add people to the count for a specific geographic location without field verifi-
cation. Statistical techniques for estimation include imputation procedures, sam-
pling during follow-up of nonrespondents, and methods for measuring census
coverage.
The Census Bureau has expressed its commitment to pursue a one-number
census for the year 2000, based on the integration of specific counting, assign-
ment, and estimation methods to be determined by the 2000 census research and
development program. This commitment is reflected in the decision not to adopt
a dual-strategy approach for the 1995 census test. The one-number approach thus
represents a departure from the methodology of the 1990 census, in which two
sets of population totals were produced, with and without corrections based on
coverage measurement, and an ex post facto decision was made about whether to
accept the corrected totals. This decision proved to be controversial because it
occurred in a highly politicized environment in which interested parties per-
ceived themselves as winners or losers, depending on which set of numbers was
chosen.
Associated with the one-number census is the principle of integrated cover
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22
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
age measurement, the premise of which is that the three components of a one-
number census are designed to complement one another in order to produce
accurate results by legal deadlines. That is, the results from measurement of
coverage will be fully integrated into the official census estimates (Miskura,
1993).
The definition of the one-number census does not imply a relaxation of the
standards for census documentation, nor does it preclude the release or use of
partial or preliminary data that is, intermediate calculations in the process of
combining information obtained from counting, assignment, and estimation meth-
ods. The fundamental change is that an appropriate methodology for integrated
coverage measurement is established before the census is earned out, with the
recognition that results at intermediate stages (e.g., before incorporating results
from the coverage measurement program) cannot be regarded on scientific
grounds as viable alternatives to the final, best set of official population totals.
(Chapter 4 provides further discussion of the one-number census and includes
several recommendations regarding documentation requirements for the 2000
census.)
In our interim report (Committee on National Statistics, 1993b:3 1), the panel
expressed strong approval of the one-number census concept. We reiterate that
approval by including below the text of the recommendation that appeared in the
interim report:
· We endorse the Census Bureau's stated goal of achieving a one-number
census in 2000 that incorporates the results from coverage measurement pro-
grams, including programs involving sampling and statistical estimation, into the
official population totals. We recommend that research on alternative method-
ologies continue in pursuit of this goal.
The panel's position on this issue is similar to the view expressed by the
National Research Council's Panel on Decennial Census Methodology convened
prior to the 1990 census (Citro and Cohen, 1985:17~:
Most important, the panel argues for balance between efforts to achieve a com-
plete enumeration and efforts to improve the accuracy of census figures through
adjustment procedures. The panel believes that adjustment cannot be viewed as
an alternative to obtaining as complete a count as possible through cost-effec-
tive means. The United States has a long tradition of a census as a complete
enumeration in which it is a civic responsibility to participate in the census
process. The panel believes that it is important to continue this tradition and
important that census methodology strive for a complete enumeration via count-
ing procedures, including the use of cost-effective special coverage improve-
ment programs. However, the panel also believes that the ultimate goal of the
census should be the accuracy of the census figures. The evidence is over-
whelming that no counting process, however diligent, will in fact enumerate
everyone.
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INTRODUCTION
23
A key design issue in achieving a well-balanced census in 2000 will be the
allocation of resources between four major steps in census data collection: con-
struction of the address frame, the initial counting operation, nonresponse follow-
up, and integrated coverage measurement. The allocation decision will be a
critical point in development of the 2000 census design, and information obtained
from the 1995 census test should provide a stronger basis for that decision.
Plans for the 1995 Census Test
The 1995 census test represents the culmination of the Census Bureau's
research and development program for the 2000 census, although research activ-
ity will continue throughout the decade. Plans for the 1995 census test have been
laid out with increasing specificity in a series of Census Bureau documents-
including the Design Alternative Recommendations (DARs) released in May
1993, the 1995 Census Test Design Recommendation (TDR) released in August
1993, and the 1995 Census Test Design Plan released in February 1994. The Test
Design Plan is a refinement of the TDR that reflects more technical work and
comments offered during critical review of the August 1993 document. Further
details of the 1995 census test plans are being laid out in a series of operational
requirements documents (ORDs) and evaluation requirements documents (ERDs)
that will eventually lead to detailed operating specifications.
The 1995 census test will be carried out at four sites: Oakland, California;
Paterson, New Jersey; New Haven, Connecticut; and six rural parishes in north-
western Louisiana. The following methods are scheduled to be examined in the
1995 census test.
1. The Use of Sampling and Statistical Estimation to Reduce the Differential
Undercount and Census Costs. Follow-up of nonrespondents to the mail ques-
tionnaire will be conducted on a sample basis. Two different sample designs will
be tested: (1) a unit design, in which a sample of the nonresponse cases in each
block is visited and (2) a block design, in which all nonresponse cases for a
sample of blocks are visited. In addition, the Census Bureau will test a new
method for integrated coverage measurement that separately estimates the num-
ber of persons missed because their housing unit was not enumerated, the number
of persons missed within enumerated housing units, and the number of erroneous
enumerations.
2. Coverage Questions for Complete Listing of Household Members. The
Census Bureau is engaged in ongoing research on household roster questions and
analysis of results from the Living Situation Survey and related cognitive re-
search on residence rules. To the extent possible, findings from these studies will
be incorporated into the development of questionnaires and procedures for the
1995 census test, including the reinterview for integrated coverage measurement.
3. Making Census Questionnaires Widely Available. The Census Bureau
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24
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
proposes to place unaddressed questionnaires in accessible locations (e.g., post
offices, convenience stores), particularly in areas inhabited or frequented by his-
torically undercounted populations.
4. Real-Time Automated Matching to Improve Census Coverage. To sup-
port the new census design proposed for the 1995 census test, the Census Bureau
will develop, to the extent possible, an automated, interactive, and real-time
record linkage and matching system.
5. Targeted Methods to Count Historically Undercounted Populations and
Geographic Areas. The Census Bureau will develop a planning database to
identify small geographic areas in which there are major enumeration barriers
and to support other census operations. Special enumeration (tool-kit) methods
will be developed and applied during the 1995 census test.
6. Mailout of Spanish-Language Questionnaires. Based on results of the
Spanish Forms Availability Test, the Census Bureau will mail Spanish-language
forms to linguistically isolated Spanish-speaking communities. Also, census
questionnaires and promotional materials will be translated into predominant
Asian languages if appropriate in the 1995 census test sites.
7. Counting Persons with No Usual Residence. The Census Bureau will
implement a new daytime enumeration method that involves visits to service
providers (e.g., shelters, soup kitchens). This method is being tested as a replace-
ment for the nighttime street enumeration procedures used on "S-Night" in the
1990 census.
8. Respondent-Friendly Questionnaire Design and Implementation Meth-
ods. The census forms used in the 1995 census test will have a format designed
for ease of response rather than ease of processing. The Census Bureau will test
a full mail implementation strategy, including a prenotice letter, an initial ques-
tionnaire, a reminder card, and a replacement questionnaire for those who have
not replied by a predetermined date. The envelopes used for some questionnaire
mailings may bear a message indicating that response is required by law.
9. Automation of Data Collection. The 1995 census test will include a
telephone network to support questionnaire assistance and the use of touch-tone
menu selections with voice recognition and voice recording options. Computer-
assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) will be used as a primary response option
and as a mode for nonresponse follow-up. Pen computers will be used during
address list and map updating.
10. Using the Postal Service to Identify Vacant and Nonexistent Housing
Units. Vacant units and nonexisting addresses will be identified earlier in census
operations using information supplied by postal carriers from their experience
with delivery of prenotice or questionnaire mailings. Adopting this procedure
will eliminate one of the two enumerator visits conducted in past censuses by the
Census Bureau, and the remaining visit can occur earlier in the process-during
the check-in of mail returns and prior to nonresponse follow-up.
11. Data Capture System for the 2000 Census Using Electronic Imaging.
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INTRODUCTION
25
The Census Bureau plans to develop electronic imaging technology capable of
scanning respondent-friendly census forms, using optical mark sensing and pos-
sibly optical character recognition software. A production prototype will be built
to capture data from at least one of the questionnaire form types used in the 1995
census test.
12. Cooperative Ventures. The Census Bureau will explore limited joint
venture options in the course of operational planning for the 1995 census test.
The Census Bureau and the Postal Service are working to reach an agreement for
continuous updating of the Master Address File and for identification of vacant
and nonexistent housing units. There may also be opportunities to work coopera-
tively with local governments to improve the address list and to obtain adminis-
trative records for coverage improvement.
13. Collecting Sample Data Using Multiple Sample Forms. The Census
Bureau plans to test a prototype matrix sampling design in the 1995 census test.
Matrix sampling involves the use of two or more sample forms in which most
respondents will be asked only a subset of all the sample questions that are asked.
The Census Bureau also considered experimenting with delayed sample-
form follow-up in the 1995 census test. Under such a procedure, only short-form
information would be gathered during nonresponse follow-up, after which
sample-form data would be obtained via telephone or personal visit for a sub-
sample of households that had initially received a sample long form. Because of
the operational complexities involved in developing multiple CATI instruments
and coordinating this effort with integrated coverage measurement, the Census
Bureau has decided not to introduce delayed sample-form follow-up into the
1995 census test design, although the concept will be examined further to deter-
mine its merit for future testing.
The operational constraints on the 1995 census test underscore the impor-
tance of learning as much as possible from other research. For example, simula-
tion studies using 1990 census data can investigate the effects of truncating
nonresponse follow-up operations at different points in time, using different rates
of sampling nonrespondents for follow-up, and applying different coverage
measurement methods (see Chapter 4 for further discussion). Similarly, not all
methods need to be tested in large-scale field settings. To ease experimental
complexity, certain methods might be excluded from large-scale field testing in
1995, when such an exclusion would not disrupt the research and development
program or if smaller experiments (e.g., questionnaire research, discussed in
Chapter 3) conducted simultaneously with the 1995 census test will provide
useful information.
Other Activities
Two activities related to 2000 census planning are being conducted indepen-
dently from the 1995 census test. First, through the policy committee of the Task
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26
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
Force on the Year 2000 Census, the Census Bureau has undertaken a review of
the statutory requirements for census data collection. Current findings from that
review (Bureau of the Census, 1994a) suggest that only 6 of 59 topics that were
included in the 1990 census lack a legislative mandate for collection. Based on
this review, the panel's deliberations have not assumed dramatic reductions in the
content requirements currently being met by the decennial census.
The Census Bureau is also continuing its development of a prototype system
for continuous data collection involving a large, monthly, national survey to
produce frequent estimates based on moving averages. Such a system for con-
tinuous measurement could potentially meet many needs for timely and accurate
information about small areas and small groups within the national population.
Current development plans call for a prototype survey to begin in fall 1994 at
several geographic sites. Chapter 6 of this report contains a thorough review of
Census Bureau research on continuous measurement and considers the extent to
which a continuous measurement survey might satisfy the legal requirements for
the data noted above.
PLANNING FOR THE 2000 AND FUTURE CENSUSES
The Costs of Census-Taking
The panel's consideration of census costs in this report and in its interim
report have been guided by a number of assumptions about the relative costs of
alternative methods. First, nonresponse follow-up, particularly in its later stages,
is clearly one of the most expensive parts of the census. Second, coverage
improvement programs also add significantly to census costs. A previous Na-
tional Research Council report (Citro and Cohen, 1985) documented the cost per
case of coverage improvement programs used in the 1980 census. Eliminating
inefficient coverage improvement programs and redesigning nonresponse fol-
low-up-for example, to incorporate use of the telephone or sampling methods-
should achieve cost savings.
Another general principle is that gathering information by mail is cheaper
than doing so by telephone, and gathering information by telephone is cheaper
than doing so by sending an enumerator to conduct a personal visit. One implica-
tion of this principle is that innovations in questionnaire design and implementa-
tion that improve mail response will save money. Similarly, the growing cost
advantages of the computer over human labor suggest that further automation of
census operations, such as record matching, should also produce cost savings.
Because of the panel's charge and the nature of our study, we did not attempt
to conduct more precise cost-benefit analyses of current or proposed methods.
We expect that the 1995 census test will provide more current and reliable infor-
mation on which to base cost-benefit judgments. New cost information will be
particularly useful in assessing the value of tool-kit enumeration methods, non
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INTRODUCTION
27
response follow-up sampling, MAF/TIGER updating, new uses of administrative
records, and the continuous measurement prototype. The cost information ob-
tained from the 1995 census test, plus improved cost modeling capabilities, should
permit cost-benefit analysis as recommended by the earlier panel on census meth-
odology (Citro and Cohen, 1985~.
Goals for the 1995 Census Test
The 1995 census test is of critical importance to the goal of an improved and
more efficient census in the year 2000. Because of the extensive operational
planning that must occur prior to 2000, the 1995 census test represents the major
opportunity to investigate fundamental reform without jeopardizing the integrity
of the 2000 census. It is essential that adequate resources are invested in planning
and executing this mid-decade test. Otherwise, the 2000 census will have a
design very similar to that of the 1990 census, with the risk of continually rising
unit costs or an inadequately tested design that risks lost demographic informa-
tion and population counts of unknown or inferior quality.
The 1995 census test should be structured to provide specific information to
answer a limited and well-defined set of questions about alternative census meth-
ods To the extent feasible, controlled experiments should be carried out, al-
though the panel recognizes that operational pressures will limit the experimental
complexity of the 1995 census test. In particular, the test should include evalua-
tion components that provide a basis for assessing cost-effectiveness.
Recommendation 1.1: In assessing.the design innovations included in
the 1995 census test or other research and development, the Census
Bureau should place great emphasis on cost-benefit analysis as part of
the overall evaluation leading to implementation decisions for the 2000
census. Requirements for evaluating new data collection methodologies
in the 1995 census test should include information on such characteris-
tics as cost, yield, and gross error that are needed to inform cost-benefit
judgments.
We note that the year 2000 research and development staff became part of
the decennial management division in summer 1994. It will be particularly
important during this transition to ensure the continuity of the 2000 census plan-
ning process, so that the research, development, and evaluation activities proceed
in an integrated, coherent, and effective manner.
We also believe it is important to maintain perspective on the role of the
large-scale, mid-decade test in the decennial census research and development
program. Previous panel studies by the Committee on National Statistics (Citro
and Cohen 1985:21) have criticized the Census Bureau's program for placing too
much emphasis on field testing over other kinds of research, including further
analysis and simulation studies based on existing data. The 1995 census test, the
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28
COUNTING PEOPLE IN THE INFORMATION AGE
1990 census, and other recent Census Bureau operations are rich bodies of infor-
mation that may yield answers to key research questions in the coming years if
these resources are acknowledged and fully examined.
Milestones for 2000 Census Planning
The Census Bureau's current schedule calls for a final decision in December
1995 on the fundamental design of the 2000 census. Further operational develop-
ment and refinement of the design will continue with a variety of small-scale
special purpose tests in 1996 and 1997 and will conclude with a census dress
rehearsal in 1998, the results of which will inform plans for the 2000 census
operation.
As noted above, simultaneously with methodological development, the Cen-
sus Bureau is engaged in a process to determine the content of the 2000 census-
i.e., what information should be collected and specifically how should questions
be phrased to collect this information. A test of census content is scheduled for
fall 1996, and the Census Bureau will submit its proposed content for the 2000
census to Congress in spring 1997.
A third activity with implications for both census methodology and content
is the Census Bureau's program to develop a prototype continuous measurement
survey (see Chapter 6~. The current schedule for this program calls for a decision
in September 1997 about whether to retain the decennial long form for the 2000
census or replace it with a continuous measurement survey. The requirement that
the Census Bureau submit in early 1997 proposed content for congressional
review and approval may complicate the reaching of this decision point. At
present, it is unclear whether this requirement would be met by furnishing a list of
topics to be included in the 2000 census or whether the means of collecting data
on these topics must also be determined by early 1997.
Longer-Term Census Research and Development
The panel's letter report (Committee on National Statistics, 1992) included
the following two recommendations:
The Census Bureau should initiate a separate program of research on
administrative records, focusing primarily on the 2010 census and on current
estimates programs. The research program should be funded separately from the
2000 census research and development activities, but there should be close liai-
son between them.
· The Census Bureau should undertake a planning study, in collaboration
with other agencies and contract support as needed, that would develop one or
more detailed design options for a 2010 administrative records census. The study
would have two major goals: to identify the steps that would need to be taken,
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INTRODUCTION
29
early in this decade, to make a 2010 administrative records census possible and to
set the stage for a national debate on the desirability of an administrative records
census. The study, or at least its initial phases, should be completed during the
current fiscal year.
In the fiscal 1995 budget currently before Congress, the Census Bureau has
included an item titled "Research for 2001 and Beyond," and the item also ap-
pears in the fiscal 1996 budget at this time. We believe these are positive steps.
However, we caution that the budget for a long-term staff should be independent
of the funding cycle for short-term research and development work on the next
decennial census (see Bradburn, 19933. Consideration should be given to revis-
ing organizational structures to minimize the extent to which short-term and
long-term research divisions would compete for personnel and other resources.
Chapter 5 includes a discussion of the long-term research that is needed to
develop new, potentially cost-effective uses of administrative records for statisti-
cal purposes in the decennial census and other demographic programs. We note
in Chapter 6 that the Census Bureau has established a continuous measurement
development staff to pursue the research agenda for creating a system of continu-
ous data collection. Perhaps this newly created staff will serve as a model for
mobilizing resources to pursue longer-term decennial census research projects at
the Census Bureau.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
census test
