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B
STATISTICS ON GRADUATE EDUCATION OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Michael McGeary
Study Director, Committee on Science,
Engineering, and Public Policy

Contents

OVERVIEW

100

THE GRADUATE STUDENTS

100

Tables:

B-1

Distribution of Science and Engineering Graduate Students, by Field, 1992

101

B-2

Distribution of US and Non-US Students, by Broad Field, 1992

102

B-3

Female Science and Engineering Graduate Students, by Broad Field, 1992

103

B-4

Members of Underrepresented Minorities, by Broad Field, 1992

104

B-5

Increase in Full-Time Graduate Enrollment, by Field and Citizenship, 1982-1992

105

B-6

Trends in First-Year and Beyond-First-Year Full-Time Enrollments in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, 1982-1992

106

B-7

Sources of Major Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students in All Institutions, by Field, 1992

107

B-8

Sources of Major Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students, 1982 and 1992

108

B-9

Federal Sources of Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students in All Institutions, by Field and Agency, 1992

109



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Page 97 B STATISTICS ON GRADUATE EDUCATION OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS Michael McGeary Study Director, Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy Contents OVERVIEW 100 THE GRADUATE STUDENTS 100 Tables: B-1 Distribution of Science and Engineering Graduate Students, by Field, 1992 101 B-2 Distribution of US and Non-US Students, by Broad Field, 1992 102 B-3 Female Science and Engineering Graduate Students, by Broad Field, 1992 103 B-4 Members of Underrepresented Minorities, by Broad Field, 1992 104 B-5 Increase in Full-Time Graduate Enrollment, by Field and Citizenship, 1982-1992 105 B-6 Trends in First-Year and Beyond-First-Year Full-Time Enrollments in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, 1982-1992 106 B-7 Sources of Major Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students in All Institutions, by Field, 1992 107 B-8 Sources of Major Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students, 1982 and 1992 108 B-9 Federal Sources of Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students in All Institutions, by Field and Agency, 1992 109

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Page 98 B-10 Mechanisms of Major Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, 1991 110 B-11 Science and Engineering Graduate Students in Master's Degree Institutions and Doctorate Institutions, by Enrollment Status and Field, 1992 111 THE INSTITUTIONS 112 Tables: B-12 Number of Academic Institutions with Science and Engineering Programs, by Highest Degree Level, 1991 112 B-13 Concentration of Science and Engineering Degree Awards by Type of Institution, 1991 113 B-14 Concentration of 80 Percent of Science and Engineering PhD Production in the 105 Research Universities, by Field, 1991 114 B-15 Number of Institutions by Highest Degree Level Since 1961, by Decade 114 SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING MASTER'S DEGREES 115 Tables: B-16 Science and Engineering Master's Degrees, Awarded by Field, 1966-1991 115 B-17 Women as Percentage of Science and Engineering Master's Degree Recipients, by Field, 1991 116 B-18 Members of Underrepresented Minorities as Percentage of Science and Engineering Master's Degree Recipients, by Field, 1977-1991 117 B-19 Science and Engineering Master's Degrees Earned by Students Who Were Not US Citizens, by Field, 1977, 1985, and 1991 118 SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING DOCTORAL DEGREES 119 Tables: B-20 Science and Engineering Doctorates Awarded, by Field, 1983-1993 119 B-21 Increases in Number of Science and Engineering Doctorates Awarded, by Field, 1988-1993 120 B-22 Women as a Percentage of Science and Engineering Doctorate Recipients, by Field, 1983-1993 121 B-23 Science and Engineering Doctorates Awarded to Women, by Field, 1983 and 1993 122 B-24 Members of Underrepresented Minorities as a Percentage of Science and Engineering Doctorate Recipients, by Field, 1983, 1988, and 1993 123

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Page 99 B-25 Share of Science and Engineering Doctorates Earned by Students Who Were Not US Citizens, by Field, 1983 and 1993 124 B-26 Increase in Science and Engineering Doctorates Awarded to Non-US Citizens with Temporary Visas, by Field, 1983 and 1993 125 B-27 Science and Engineering Doctorates Awarded to Non-US Citizens with Temporary Visas, by Field, 1983 and 1993 126 B-28 Region and Country of Origin of Foreign Citizens with Temporary Visas Earning Science and Engineering PhDs, 1983 and 1993 127 B-29 Median Total Time-to-Degree for Doctorate Recipients, 1962-1993 128 B-30 Primary Sources of Support for Science and Engineering Doctorate Recipients, by Broad Field, 1993 131 POSTDOCTORATE EMPLOYMENT PLANS 131 Table: B-31 Science and Engineering PhD Recipients with Definite Postgraduation Commitments in the United States, by Field and Type of Employer, 1970-1991 132 POSTDOCTORAL STUDY TRENDS 133 Tables: B-32 Postdoctoral Study Plans of Recipients of Science and Engineering Doctorates from US Universities, 1985-1992 133 B-33 Postdoctoral Study Plans of Recipients of Science and Engineering Doctorates from US Universities, by Field, 1992 133 B-34 Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointees in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982-1992 134 B-35 Trends in Net Growth of Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointee Positions in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982 and 1992 135 B-36 Appointments of Postdoctoral Scientists and Engineers Who Were Not US Citizens in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982 and 1992 136 B-37 Federally Supported Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointees in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982 and 1992 137 B-38 Sources of Support for Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointees in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1992 138

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Page 100 OVERVIEW About 1,500 institutions of higher learning in the United States have programs leading to degrees in science and engineering. Of those, nearly 300 offer doctoral-degree programs in science and engineering. They also offer master's degrees, and more than 400 nondoctoral academic institutions offer master's-degree programs in science and engineering. In 1992, about 430,000 graduate students were in science and engineering programs; 87% of them were at the 300 doctorate-granting institutions. In 1992, about 80,000 master's degrees and 25,000 doctoral degrees were earned in science and engineering fields. About one-fourth of the doctorates were awarded in each broad field of science and engineering: physical/mathematical sciences, life sciences, social sciences, and engineering. The median time from the bachelor's degree to the PhD was 9.2 years. More than half of the master's degrees and 90% of the PhDs are awarded by the 150 universities that receive 90% of federal academic R&D funding. About 5% of all science and engineering doctorate recipients in 1993 (14% of life-sciences PhDs) were supported by federal fellowships and traineeships. Another 61 % (including 78% of physical scientists and 69% of engineers) received external support, primarily research assistantships and teaching assistantships. Many of the research assistantships were funded by federal grants. About one-quarter of the science and engineering doctoral recipients (including one-half the social scientists) were self-supporting (including federally guaranteed loans). More than one-third more doctorates in science and engineering were awarded in 1993 than in 1983. Seven-tenths of the net increase in doctorate awards went to foreign citizens with temporary visas, and most of the remaining increase was to US women. In 1993, nearly 30% of the doctorates were earned by women, up from about 25% in 1983. In 1992, 5.7% of PhDs were earned by members of underrepresented minorities in 1992, up from 4.1 % in 1983; most of the increase was earned by Hispanics. Foreign citizens with temporary visas greatly increased their share of US doctorates, earning 18.5% in 1983 and 32% in 1993; almost all the net increase was accounted for by citizens of Asian countries. Nearly half of the engineering PhDs went to foreign citizens with temporary visas. THE GRADUATE STUDENTS In 1992, the National Science Foundation (NSF) estimated that about 431,600 students were enrolled in graduate science and engineering degree programs (NSF, 1994a:Table 1). Most (87%) were enrolled in doctorate-granting institutions, a proportion that has varied only slightly since the NSF survey began in 1975. Most (67%) were full-time students (this proportion was 72% in doctorate-granting institutions).

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Page 101 It is not possible to tell which of these graduate students were enrolled in master's degree programs and which in doctoral programs, although many PhD recipients have master's degrees (72% in 1993) (NRC, 1995:Appendix Table A-3). Table B-1, a comparison of the distribution of science and engineering graduate students among fields by type of institution and enrollment status shows that life-sciences graduate students were somewhat more likely than science and engineering graduate students overall to be at doctorate institutions and to be enrolled full-time. Social sciences and behavioral-science graduate students had the opposite pattern: they were somewhat more likely to be part-time and at master's institutions. Engineering graduate students were slightly more likely to be at doctorate institutions but more likely to be enrolled part-time. TABLE B-1 Distribution of Science and Engineering Graduate Students, by Field, 1992 Field All Institutions, All Students Doctorate-Granting Institutions     All Students Full-Time Students TOTAL 431,613 (100%) 374,781 (100%) 270,984 (100%) Physical/ mathematical sciences 106,548 (25.0%) 93,429 (25.2%) 69,053 (25.8%) Astronomy 869 869 840 Physics 14,264 13,734 12,432 Chemistry 19,904 18,799 16,611 Physical sciences n.e.c. 459 209 128 Mathematical sciences 20,375 17,890 13,889 Environmental sciences 15,609 13,964 10,567 Computer sciences 36,396 29,042 15,554 Life sciences 66,046 (15.3%) 61,114 (16.3%) 51,676 (19.1%) Agricultural sciences 11,609 10,891 8,907 Biological sciences 54,437 50,223 42,769 Social/behavioral sciences 139,644 (32.4%) 110,868 (29.6%) 77,464 (28.6%) Social sciences 85,824 73,170 50,272 Psychology 53,820 37,698 27,192 Engineering 118,047 (27.3%) 108,292 (28.9%) 71,823 (26.5%) SOURCE: Calculated from Table 1 in NSF, 1994a.

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Page 102 Non-US Citizens Nearly 110,000 (25.3%) science and engineering graduate students were not US citizens in 1992. About 93,000 of them were enrolled full-time. Their distribution among fields differed from that of US-citizen science and engineering graduate students. Table B-2 shows the distribution of full-time science and engineering graduate students by citizenship and broad field in 1992. Those who were not US citizens were more likely to be studying engineering or the physical sciences and less likely to be in life-science or social/behavioral-sciences programs. As a result, those who were not US citizens constituted relatively high proportions in some fields—46% of all full-time graduate students in engineering and 39% of those in the physical/mathematic sciences—but low proportions in other fields—27 % of all full-time graduate students in the life sciences and 17% of those in the social/behavioral sciences or psychology. TABLE B-2 Distribution of US and Non-US Citizens, by Broad Field, 1992 Field Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Student, All Institutions   US Citizen Non-US Citizen TOTAL 198,198 (100.0%) 92,795 (100.0%) Physical/ mathematical sciences 45,177 (22.8%) 28,983 (31.2%) Life sciences 39,146 (19.7%) 14,652 (15.8%) Social/behavioral sciences 73,661 (37.2%) 14,908 (16.1%) Engineering 40,214 (20.3%) 34,252 (36.9%) SOURCE: Calculated from Tables 13 and 14 in NSF, 1994a.

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Page 103 Female Graduate Students In 1992, more than 150,000 (35%) science and engineering graduate students were women (up from 25% in 1977). As Table B-3 shows, they were more likely to be enrolled in the life sciences or the social/behavioral sciences and less likely to be in the physical sciences or engineering. In fact, half of all female science and engineering graduate students were in social sciences and psychology programs. As a result, the majority (54%) of graduate students in the social/behavioral sciences were women, as were 44% of those in the life sciences. Only 15% of engineering graduate students and 27% of those in the natural (physical, environmental, mathematical, and computer) sciences were female. TABLE B-3 Female Science and Engineering Graduate Students, by Broad Field, 1992 Field Number Percentage Distribution Across Fields Percentage of All Graduate Students TOTAL 150,411 100.0 34.8 Physical/ mathematical sciences 28,719 19.1 26.6 Life sciences 29,223 19.4 44.2 Social/behavioral sciences 75,311 50.1 53.9 Engineering 17,158 11.4 14.5 SOURCE: Calculated from Table 8 in NSF, 1994a.

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Page 104 Members of Underrepresented Minorities Fewer than 29,000 (9%) of science and engineering graduate students who were US citizens were members of underrepresented minorities—black, Hispanic, or American Indian. Compared with all US-citizen graduate students, they were much more likely to be studying social/behavioral sciences (53 versus 37%) and substantially less likely to be in the life sciences (13% versus 20%). Members of underrepresented minorities constituted 13% of US citizens in the social/behavioral sciences and about 7% of those in the other broad fields (see Table B-4). TABLE B-4 Members of Underrepresented Minorities, by Broad Field, 1992 Field Number Percentage Distribution Across Fields Percentage of All US-Citizen Graduate Students TOTAL 28,866 100.0% 9.0 Physical/math sciences 4,917 17.0% 6.7 Life sciences 3,615 12.5% 7.2 Social/behavioral sciences 15,335 53.1% 12.6 Engineering 4,999 17.3% 6.5 SOURCE: Calculated from Table 2 in NSF, 1994a. Growth Trends in Full-Time Graduate Enrollment Since 1982 In 1992, there were nearly 291,000 full-time science and engineering graduate students, 30.6% more than in 1982. The growth by field is presented in the first column of Table B-5. Much of the net growth came from foreign citizens; as overall enrollment was increasing by almost 2% a year, foreign enrollment was growing by more than 5% a year (NSB, 1993:50). The second and third columns of Table B-5 compare the increases in full-time science and engineering graduate students who were foreign citizens with those who were US citizens in 1982-1992, by field. Enrollment increases were also driven by the increased participation of women—3 % a year, compared with 1 % among men, during the 1980s. There were absolute decreases in the number of male graduate students in the life, environmental, and social sciences and psychology (NSB, 1993:53).

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Page 105 TABLE B-5 Increases in Full-Time Graduate Enrollment, by Field and Citizenship, 1982-1992 (percentages)   Citizenship Field All Non-US US TOTAL +30.6 +68.1 +18.4 Physical/ mathematical sciences +33.7 +90.6 +12.2 Physical sciences +27.8 +83.9 +7.1 Mathematical sciences +35.5 +47.8 +28.6 Environmental sciences -2.5 +63.3 -13.6 Computer sciences +92.1 +170.3 +50.4 Life sciences +14.8 +97.6 -0.8 Agricultural sciences -6.2 +17.3 -14.1 Biological sciences +20.4 +136.3 +2.3 Social/behavioral sciences +26.2 +32.4 +25.1 Social sciences +22.1 +30.1 +19.8 Psychology +33.2 +53.9 +32.3 Engineering +48.2 +60.6 +39.6 SOURCES: Calculated from Tables 13 and 14 in NSF, 1994a for 1992; Table B-5 in NSF, 1993a for 1982. Growth in First-Year and Beyond-First-Year Enrollments, 1982-1992 The NSF survey of graduate students and postdoctorates in science and engineering fields began to collect information on the number of first-year full-time enrollments in 1982. The data indicate that first-year enrollments increased at a lower rate than total full-time enrollments until about 1989, after which they increased more rapidly for several years. During 1982-1992, first-year enrollments increased by 17% and beyond-first-year enrollments by 37% (Table B-6). It is difficult to interpret those data. Are the recent large increases in first-year enrollments the result of reports in the middle to late 1980s of impending shortfalls in the number of PhDs or the tendency of more college graduates to go to graduate school when economic conditions are poor? Also, how much of the higher rate of growth among beyond-first-year graduate students until recently was simply the manifestation of the steadily increasing degree requirements among science and engineering PhDs, and how much was due to graduate students' deliberately delaying completion of their degrees as short-term responses to poor job-market prospects?

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Page 106 TABLE B-6 Trends in First-Year and Beyond-First-Year Full-Time Enrollments in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, 1982-1992 Year First Year Beyond First Year 1982 70,351 152,419 1983 72,152 (2.6%) 157,786 (3.5%) 1984 70,604 (-1.8%) 160,986 (2.0%) 1985 71,395 (1.1%) 163,100 (1.3%) 1986 73,167 (2.5%) 169,941 (4.2%) 1987 71,255 (-2.6%) 176,265 (3.7%) 1988 70,930 (-0.5%) 180,036 (2.1%) 1989 74,478 (5.0%) 182,677 (1.5%) 1990 76,405 (2.6%) 189,355 (3.7%) 1991 81,140 (6.2%) 196,211 (3.6%) 1992 82,481 (1.7%) 208,512 (6.3%) SOURCES: Calculated from Tables B-34 and B-35 in NSF, 1992a for 1982; Tables B-24 and B-25 in NSF, 1993a for 1983-1994; unpublished NSF Tables for 1985-1992. Sources and Mechanisms of Financial Support In 1992, science and engineering graduate students were supported in a number of ways by a variety of sources. For each full-time student, the NSF survey asks for the ''major" (i.e., largest) source of support (e.g., federal, institutional, and self) and the type (e.g., fellowship, and/or research assistantship). Table B-7 shows that the sources of support vary considerably from field to field. Although on the average 20% of full-time science and engineering graduate students received their major support from a federal source, this was the largest source of support for 32% of graduate students in biology and nearly 36% of graduate students in the physical sciences. Only 7% of graduate students in the social or behavioral sciences and 10% of those in the mathematical sciences were supported primarily by federal funds. Nearly twothirds of mathematical scientists and half of those in the physical sciences received their major support from their institutions (mostly in the form of research and teaching assistantships), but institutional funds were also an important source of graduate support in the other disciplines—between 32 and 45%. "Own funds" (including, however, federally guaranteed loans) were the major source of support for large fractions of graduate students in some fields—46% of those in computer science and 40% of those in the social and behavioral sciences—but for relatively few in physics, astronomy, and chemistry (6%) or the biological sciences (13%). Only a few percent received foreign support (although those completing the

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Page 107 survey might not always have known whether those funding their own way—thus classified as self-supporting—were receiving foreign support). Finally, about 7% overall were receiving support from industry and domestic sources other than federal and institutional. About 11% of students in engineering and agricultural science were receiving such support. TABLE B-7 Sources of Major Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering Graduate Students in All Institutions, by Field, 1992 Field Total No. Federal Institu- tional Other US Foreign Self               TOTAL 290,993 20.0% 41.3% 6.9% 2.1% 29.7% Physical/ mathematical sciences 74,160 25.0% 47.0% 5.8% 1.6% 20.6% Physical sciences 30,730 35.7% 50.0% 7.0% 1.1% 6.4% Mathematical sciences 14,663 10.2% 65.1% 2.4% 2.0% 20.3% Environmental sciences 11,150 30.9% 39.2% 7.1% 2.2% 20.6% Computer sciences 17,617 15.0% 31.7% 5.9% 1.8% 45.6% Life sciences 53,798 31.8% 43.4% 7.9% 2.3% 14.5% Agricultural sciences 9,280 21.1% 38.7% 11.5% 6.2% 22.5% Biological sciences 44,518 34.0% 44.4% 7.2% 1.5% 12.9% Social/behavioral sciences 88,569 7.0% 42.0% 3.5% 1.7% 45.7% Social sciences 54,183 6.3% 45.0% 3.7% 2.7% 42.3% Psychology 34,386 8.1% 37.4% 3.2% 0.2% 51.1% Engineering 74,466 22.1% 33.3% 11.4% 2.7% 30.5% SOURCE: Calculated from Table 11 in NSF, 1994a.

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Page 128 Those figures are for all PhDs in all fields, including humanities, education, and the professional (which have had the highest TTDs historically). The patterns vary widely by field, even within the sciences and engineering. Engineering and physical sciences have always had shorter than average completion times; social sciences, longer. The increase in TTD has slowed considerably since about 1987, even though the recession of the early 1990s might have increased the incentive to stay in school a year or two longer. TABLE B-29 Median Total Time-to-Degree for Doctorate Recipients, 1962-1993 (selected years) Field 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1993 All fields (including humanities) Registered 5.4 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.1 Total 8.8 8.1 8.2 8.7 9.6 10.4 10.5 10.5 All Science and Engineering Registered         6.4 6.7 6.7   Total         8.6 9.1 9.2   Physical sciences Registered 5.1 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.5 6.5 Total 6.5 6.0 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.3 Life sciences Registered 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.8 Total 7.8 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.8 9.4 9.4 Social sciences Registered 5.4 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.7 7.2 7.5 7.4 Total 9.0 7.7 7.5 8.0 9.2 10.4 10.6 10.4 Engineering Registered 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.3 Total 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.1 8.7 8.8 SOURCE: Calculated from Table 6 in NRC, 1995. In conducting the research for their recent book In Pursuit of the PhD, Bowen and Rudenstine (1992:113-119), noticed that TTD figures were lower for their sample of 10 schools. They consulted demographers who suggested a different method for determining TTD that should be more accurate. The method used by the Office of Scientific and Engineering

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Page 129 Personnel (OSEP) and others determines the median number of TTD years for all those receiving their doctorates in a particular year. The demographers pointed out that this permits a bias if the cohorts entering graduate school are increasing or decreasing in size over time. Each entering class of PhD candidates has some fast finishers and some slow finishers. In a period such as the late 1950s and 1960s, when the number entering PhD programs was growing every year, the proportion of fast finishers showing up for their degrees a few years later increased and made the decreases in TTD larger than they would have been if cohorts had been steady. Similarly, when cohort sizes decrease, as they did in 1974-1984, the proportion of fast finishers getting their degrees a few years later goes down, increasing the apparent TTD. More recently, enrollments have gone up again, and that accounts for at least part of the decrease in TTD medians in the past several years. Bowen and Rudenstine corrected for that bias by calculating average TTD of entering cohort, rather than graduating cohort. They asked, how long on the average, did it take those entering a PhD program (or getting their bachelor's degrees in year X to get their doctorates? They found that use of the entering-cohort method gave an increase in TTD of about 10% over the preceding 15-20 years, not 30%. They admitted that any lengthening in the already-long TTD is a serious problem but said that its magnitude and newness had been exaggerated. A study of TTD by staff of OSEP reviewed the literature on the causes of increasing TTD (Tuckman, et al., 1990). They found that earlier studies had looked at sociological, demographic, economic, and institutional factors, although few had looked at them all and undertaken a causal analysis. They developed a model of TTD with five vectors of variables: family background characteristics, individual abilities and interests, tuition and financial aid, institutional environment and policies, and economic and social forces. They tested the model in 11 fields using data from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and found a variety of factors that affected registered time-to-degree (RTTD) or total time-to-degree (TTTD), including the availability and form of student support, labor-market conditions, sociodemographic characteristics of the doctorate recipients, and characteristics of the undergraduate and graduate institutions. Yet no factor or set of factors consistently explained the general upward trend in TTD. That might be because TTD is poorly measured (the study was based on the graduating, rather than the entering, cohort), or because the data are inadequate. They are aggregate data, and some measure the variables of interest only indirectly; other variables, such as increasing complexity of subject matter or the incentive for faculty to keep students longer as cheap labor on research projects, are not measured at all. As for negative consequences, the following have been mentioned (Tuckman, et al., 1990): · The increasing time spent in graduate school increases the time it takes for the supply of PhDs to respond to shifts in market demand, and that has both social and individual costs (if demand goes up, there are not enough qualified people; if it falls, highly capable people cannot be employed in their field of training).

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Page 130 · Increasing TTD will discourage some highly qualified candidates from staying in science (perhaps some of the most qualified students, who can more easily find attractive alternatives). · Delayed start of career reduces the total years of productivity for society and the return on investment for the individual. Bowen and Rudenstine (1992) also studied the effects of financial support in some detail in their 10-school sample. They found that it mattered. Students who received financial aid had much higher completion rates and shorter TTD than students who relied on their own resources. In the sciences, the form of the aid had an effect on completion and TTD; research assistantships had the best effect, fellowships a close second, and teaching assistantships the worst effect. They also found that the NSF fellowship program had been very successful in reducing median TTD (4.9 years versus 5.6 years for those who were not NSF fellows in an eight-university group). Interpreting such findings is problematic, however. Did the NSF fellows finish earlier because of the fellowship form of support itself or because they were selected through a rigorous process that selected more-motivated students? In conclusion, both RTTD and TTTD have been increasing for a long time, with the exception of the 1960s. Presumably, the increases are caused in part by the increasing complexity of knowledge and techniques to be mastered in doctorate programs and in part by less-desirable or less-excusable reasons (e.g., an increase in tuition costs and a decrease in federal aid, which force students to work more during graduate school, or a desire of faculty to keep students working on research projects). They are also caused in part by the increasing participation of women and minority-group members, who generally have longer TTDs. According to Bowen and Rudenstine, having outside aid does improve completion and TTD rates. The form of the aid—fellowships, research assistantships, or teaching assistantships—might have little independent effect. Source of Support The Survey of Earned Doctorates (SED) administered yearly by OSEP for NSF asks new PhDs to list their primary source of support during graduate school. The data for 1993 are displayed in Table B-30. It should be noted, however, that the nonresponse rate to this question was 34%, for unknown reasons (it was 23% in 1991, and 30% in 1992). It also should be noted that federally funded research assistantships are listed with other research assistantships under ''university" because students often do not know the source of support for their research assistantships. Federal loans are listed under "personal." "Other" includes national fellowships, employer funds, and support from foreign governments, state governments, and other nonspecified sources. The "life sciences" include "health science" PhDs as well as the biological and agricultural scientists listed in the other tables in this appendix.

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Page 131 A brief analysis of the table shows that a relatively large percentage of the PhD recipients in social sciences are self-supporting—nearly half, compared with 10-15% of those in the physical sciences and engineering and a fifth of those in the life sciences. PhDs in the life sciences receive the most direct federal support, probably resulting from the large fellowship and traineeship programs of the National Institutes of Health. Most PhDs in the physical sciences and engineering, and to a lesser extent the life sciences, receive their primary support from their universities. That includes federally funded research assistantships, as well as other research and teaching assistantships. TABLE B-30 Primary Sources of Support for Science and Engineering Doctorate Recipients, by Broad Field, 1993 (percentages) Field Personal University Federal Other TOTAL 23.8 61.4 7.5 7.3 Physical sciences 12.1 77.9 4.5 5.4 Life sciences 21.4 56.8 14.4 7.4 Social sciences 47.8 41.6 5.0 5.6 Engineering 14.7 69.3 4.9 11.1 SOURCE: Calculated from Table 11 in NRC, 1995. POSTDOCTORATE EMPLOYMENT PLANS According to the SED, among new science and engineering PhDs who had definite postgraduation plans, the percentage planning to work in academe (college or university) was 48% in the early 1960s (NRC, 1978:Table 30). That figure increased to 57.0% in 1970 before falling steadily to 44.1% in 1980 (NSF, 1993b:Table 15) and 40.4% in 1993 (NSF, 1994f:Table 7). Meanwhile, the proportion of new science and engineering PhDs going to business and industry grew from about 22% in the 1960s to 26.5% in 1970 and 36.2% in 1993. Note that Table B-31 does not include those with definite plans for postdoctoral study in the United States, almost all at universities. These numbered 2,789 in 1970, 3,571 in 1980, 4,676 in 1990, and 5,739 in 1993 (NSF, 1993b:Table 15, 1994f:Table 7). It also should be noted that the percentage of science and engineering PhDs who had definite plans at the time of the SED survey fell from 76.6% in 1970 to 72.0% in 1980, 64.0% in 1990, and 60.1% in 1993 (NSF, 1993b:Table 15, 1994f:Table 7).

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Page 132 TABLE B-31 Science and Engineering PhD Recipients with Definite Postgraduation Commitments in the United States, by Field and Type of Employer, 1970-1991   1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1991 Field No. Percentage   No. Percentage TOTAL 9,216 100.0 8,187 7,285 6,614 7,175 7,403 100.0 College/university 5,263 57.1 4,287 3,228 2,851 2,952 3,099 41.9 Elementary/ secondary school 44 0.5 99 113 95 81 111 1.5 Government 1,015 11.0 1,365 1,142 885 871 890 12.0 Nonprofit organization 408 4.4 443 537 502 493 492 6.6 Industry/business 2,399 26.0 1,886 2,139 2,099 2,452 2,488 33.6 Self-employed 48 0.5 71 101 145 240 229 3.1 Other and unknown 39 0.4 36 25 37 86 94 1.3 SOURCE: Calculated from Table 5 in NSF, 1993b.

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Page 133 POSTDOCTORAL STUDY TRENDS TABLE B-32 Postdoctoral Study Plans of Recipients of Science and Engineering Doctorates from US Universities, 1985-1992 PhD Recipients 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 TOTAL 19,164 20,203 21,411 22,294 23,440 24,543 25,248 Postdoctoral plans 5,941 6,728 7,216 7,268 8,087 8,811 9,316 Fellowship 49.0% 48.0% 48.7% 49.7% 49.0% 49.9% 50.7% Research associate 41.3% 42.9% 43.0% 40.5% 41.7% 41.5% 41.2% Traineeship 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.3% Other 5.2% 5.1% 4.4% 5.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% SOURCE: Calculated from Appendix Table A-3 in NRC, 1993. TABLE B-33 Postdoctoral Study Plans of Recipients of Science and Engineering Doctorates from US Universities, by Field, 1992 PhD Recipients Physical Sciences Engineering Life Sciences Social Sciences Total Science and Engineering TOTAL 6,498 5,437 7,108 6,205 25,248 Postdoctoral plans 3,022 1,202 4,066 1,036 9,316 Fellowship 53.1% 34.4% 57.5% 64.7% 50.7% Research associate 42.8% 58.8% 32.3% 19.2% 41.2% Traineeship 2.2% 4.1% 2.6% 9.6% 3.3% Other 1.9% 3.2% 7.7% 6.6% 5.1% SOURCE: Calculated from Appendix Table A-3 in NRC, 1993.

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Page 134 TABLE B-34 Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointees in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982-1992 Field 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 All Science and Engineering 14,672 15,657 16,168 16,920 17,901 18,760 19,759 20,962 21,604 23,018 24,024 Science, Total 13,694 14,556 14,974 15,573 16,505 17,319 18,075 19,054 19,661 20,781 21,680 Physical sciences 4,281 4,444 4,386 4,517 4,843 4,953 5,187 5,355 5,507 5,623 5,772 Physics 1,326 1,350 1,320 1,342 1,527 1,548 1,578 1,678 1,715 1,763 1,954 Chemistry 2,805 2,973 2,906 2,995 3,151 3,246 3,429 3,462 3,580 3,627 3,573 Environmental Sciences 335 415 488 375 417 420 499 459 605 645 709 Mathematical Sciences 194 170 203 226 201 228 280 223 247 206 201 Computer Sciences 46 82 63 74 74 100 91 78 71 157 149 Agricultural Sciences 279 307 375 373 409 441 454 512 529 574 634 Biological sciences 7,756 8,355 8,707 9,164 9,722 10,346 10,752 11,518 11,799 12,648 13,287 Psychology 520 435 422 495 517 454 493 535 457 503 521 Social sciences 283 348 330 349 322 377 319 374 446 425 407 Engineering, Total 978 1,101 1,194 1,347 1,396 1,441 1,684 1,908 1,943 2,237 2,344 Chemical engineering 174 198 245 273 295 309 423 466 551 578 554 Materials 166 204 168 245 250 283 325 323 370 401 458 Mechanical 130 182 196 207 239 216 216 302 218 329 355 Electrical 176 174 171 176 172 175 186 193 241 300 307 SOURCE: Calculated from Table C-25 in NSF, 1992a; and, for 1991 and 1992, NSF, unpublished tables.

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Page 135 TABLE B-35 Trends in Net Growth of Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointee Positions in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982 and 1992   Growth, 1982-1992 Percentage Distribution of Postdoctoral Positions Among All Fields Field 1982 1992 Difference Percentage 1982 1992 All Science and Engineering 14,672 24,024 9,352 63.7 100.0 100.0 Science, Total 13,694 21,680 7,986 58.3 93.3 90.2 Physical sciences 4,281 5,772 1,491 34.8 29.2 24.0 Physics 1,326 1,954 628 47.4 9.0 8.1 Chemistry 2,805 3,573 768 27.4 19.1 14.9 Environmental Sciences 335 709 374 111.6 2.3 3.0 Mathematical Sciences 194 201 7 3.6 1.3 0.8 Computer Sciences 46 149 103 223.9 0.3 0.6 Agricultural Sciences 279 634 355 127.2 1.9 2.6 Biological sciences 7,756 13,287 5,531 71.3 52.9 55.3 Psychology 520 521 1 0.2 3.5 2.2 Social sciences 283 407 124 43.8 1.9 1.7 Engineering, Total 978 2,344 1,366 139.7 6.7 9.8 Chemical engineering 174 554 380 218.4 1.2 2.3 Materials 166 458 292 175.9 1.1 1.9 Mechanical 130 355 225 173.1 0.9 1.5 Electrical 176 307 124 74.4 1.2 1.3 SOURCE: Calculated from Table C-25 in NSF, 1992a; and, for 1991 and 1992, NSF, unpublished tables.

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Page 136 TABLE B-36 Appointments of Postdoctoral Scientists and Engineers Who Were Not US Citizens in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982 and 1992   Growth, 1982-1992 Percentage of All Postdocs within Field Percentage of All Non-US Science and Engineering Postdocs Field 1982 1992 Difference Percentage 1982 1992 1982 1992 All Science and Engineering 5,961 12,627 6,666 111.8 40.6 52.6 100.0 100.0 Science, Total 5,304 11,053 5,749 108.4 38.7 51.0 89.0 87.5 Physical sciences 2,367 3,506 1,139 48.1 55.3 60.7 39.7 27.8 Physics 673 1,099 426 63.3 50.8 56.2 11.3 8.7 Chemistry 1,661 2,311 650 39.1 59.2 64.7 27.9 18.3 Environmental Sciences 121 276 155 128.1 36.1 38.9 2.0 2.2 Mathematical Sciences 126 109 -17 -13.5 64.9 54.2 2.1 0.9 Computer Sciences 12 50 38 316.7 26.1 33.6 0.2 0.4 Agricultural Sciences 116 275 159 137.1 41.6 43.4 1.9 2.2 Biological sciences 2,397 6,574 4,177 174.3 30.9 49.5 40.2 52.1 Psychology 65 127 62 95.4 12.5 24.4 1.1 1.0 Social sciences 100 136 36 36.0 35.3 33.4 1.7 1.1 Engineering, Total 657 1,574 917 139.6 67.2 67.2 11.0 12.5 Chemical engineering 133 415 282 212.0 76.4 74.9 2.2 3.3 Materials 138 331 193 139.9 83.1 72.3 2.3 2.6 Mechanical 100 211 111 111.0 76.9 59.4 1.7 1.7 Electrical 94 186 92 97.9 53.4 60.6 1.6 1.5 NOTE: Includes permanent residents and those with temporary visas. SOURCE: Calculated from Table C-30 in NSF, 1992a; and, for 1991 and 1992, NSF, unpublished tables.

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Page 137 TABLE B-37 Federally Supported Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointees in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1982 and 1992 Field Growth, 1982-1992 Percentage of All Postdocs within Field Percentage of All Federally Supported Postdocs   1982 1992 Difference Percent 1982 1992 1982 1992 All Science and Engineering 11,119 17,660 6,541 58.8 75.8 73.5 100.0 100.0 Science, Total 10,447 16,050 5,603 53.6 74.8 74.0 94.0 90.9 Physical sciences 3,600 4,589 989 27.5 64.1 79.5 32.4 26.0 Physics 1,156 1,641 485 42.0 87.2 84.0 10.4 9.3 Chemistry 2,307 2,730 423 18.3 82.2 76.4 20.7 15.5 Environmental Sciences 255 556 301 118.0 76.1 78.4 2.3 3.1 Mathematical Sciences 46 143 97 210.9 23.7 71.1 0.4 0.8 Computer Sciences 25 113 88 352.0 54.3 75.8 0.2 0.6 Agricultural Sciences 166 417 251 151.2 59.5 65.8 1.5 2.4 Biological sciences 5,825 9,695 3,870 66.4 75.1 73.0 52.4 54.9 Psychology 392 358 -34 -8.7 75.4 68.7 3.5 2.0 Social sciences 138 179 41 29.7 48.8 44.0 1.2 1.0 Engineering, Total 672 1,610 938 139.6 68.7 68.7 6.0 9.1 Chemical engineering 100 340 240 240.0 57.5 61.4 0.9 1.9 Materials 121 284 163 134.7 72.9 62.0 1.1 1.6 Mechanical 94 250 156 166.0 72.3 70.4 0.8 1.4 Electrical 118 229 111 94.1 67.0 74.6 1.1 1.3 NOTE: These are postdoctoral appointees for whom federal agencies and programs are "the source of the largest amount of their support" (those supported by federal loans are not included). SOURCE: Calculated from Table C-27 in NSF, 1992a; and, for 1991 and 1992, NSF, unpublished tables.

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Page 138 TABLE B-38 Sources of Support for Science and Engineering Postdoctoral Appointees in Doctorate-Granting Institutions, by Field, 1992   Federal Sources   Field Total Total Fellowships (%) Traineeships(%) Research Grants(%) Non Federal Sources All Science and Engineering 24,024 17,660 11.1 7.6 81.3 6,364 Science, Total 21,680 16,050 11.8 8.2 80.0 5,630 Physical sciences 5,772 4,589 7.5 0.8 91.7 1,183 Physics 1,954 1,641 4.4 0.2 95.4 313 Chemistry 3,573 2,730 8.5 1.2 90.3 843 Environmental Sciences 709 556 7.9 1.1 91.0 153 Mathematical Sciences 201 143 16.1 4.2 79.7 58 Computer Sciences 149 113 1.8 0.9 97.3 36 Agricultural Sciences 634 417 9.8 0.5 89.7 217 Biological sciences 13,287 9,695 13.9 11.9 74.2 3,592 Psychology 521 358 14.2 23.5 62.3 163 Social Sciences 407 179 27.4 14.5 58.1 228 Engineering, Total 2,344 1,610 3.7 1.1 95.2 734 Chemical engineering 554 340 0.9 0.9 98.2 214 Materials 458 284 1.1 0.0 98.9 174 Mechanical 355 250 4.4 2.4 93.2 105 Electrical 307 229 3.5 0.0 96.5 78 SOURCE: Calculated from NSF unpublished data.