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Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium (1995)

Chapter: Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies

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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Suggested Citation:"Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies." National Research Council. 1995. Marshaling Technology for Development: Proceedings of a Symposium. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5022.
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Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies SIDNEY F. HEATH III Technology Planning Director, AT&T The global electronics market, which grew from $220 billion in 1980 to $654 billion in 1990, will reach an estimated $1.405 trillion in 2000.i Because of this tremendous growth in demand, electronics manufacturing is one of the main sources of advances in technology and innovation. Worldwide, electronics manu- facturing productivity has been a primary factor in sustaining and increasing national standards of living and economic growth by adding value to raw materi- als. Indeed, electronic manufacturing's economic pump, when it can generate growth in productivity, delivers a far larger percentage of added value to the economy than that of any other single sector. These benefits also are available to developing countries that are able to successfully nurture an electronics manufac- turing sector. But to do so, these countries need to understand the forces driving the rapid technological changes occurring in this sector and the basics of the manufacturing technology shifts. FORCES AFFECTING ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY Three main forces are driving innovation in electronics manufacturing tech- nology: information technology, globalization, and intensified competition. The major trends in information technologies-electronics photonics, speech process, video, computing, telecommunications, software, and terminals are described in "Information Technology for Development" by John S. Mayo. Pow- erful technological trends in silicon, photonics, and software development hav produced the technologies that are supporting the emerging multimedia commu 161

162 Marshaling Technology for Development nication revolution and the evolution of a national information superhighway. For example, the silicon components at the core of all electronics devices have been doubling in speed every two years; compression algorithms have allowed technologists to encode the same information in one-thirtieth the space every five years; lasers are doubling in speed every three to four years; data storage costs are being cut in half every other year; and software has generated a computer literacy requirement that affects most occupations. Overall, these trends will determine what can be manufactured and how manufacturing will operate. Most electronic assembly operations will use similar components, interconnection schemes, pack- aging, and power supplies. The need for reliable miniaturization processes in electronics manufacturing has driven such operations into suprahuman activities that require automation support to deliver a product that meets global quality and reliability standards. This in turn has meant a reduced role for unskilled labor and a greater dependence on a highly skilled work force. Effective manufacturing operations also require the seamless integration of the manufacturing technologies into a full-stream, high-velocity process. Individual technology steps and their facilities are readily available in the market. Thus full- stream integration and effective operation require either significant investments in technology transfer or a long, expensive internal development interval. Fortu- nately, as the cost of processing MIPS (million instructions per second) has dropped, the cost of computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) has dropped as well and provided for effective process control and concurrent engineering. Globalization, the second force affecting innovations in manufacturing tech- nology, has changed the context for manufacturing decisions in electronic assem- bly. Manufacturing operations can no longer exist effectively as stand-alone entities because they must depend heavily on their global supply base for compo- nents, manufacturing infrastructure, and the development of manufacturing pro- cesses. In the developing countries, policies and regulations on trade policies, soft financing, economic offset, and duties and taxes on the flow of these manu- facturing elements can significantly affect the climate for manufacturing. Fur- thermore, the competitive complexion of a manufacturing entity is becoming increasingly dependent on the successful utilization and leverage of its global production network. Without the support of the developing countries themselves, the manufacturing operations will not be globally competitive. Finally, the globalization of manufacturing has intensified the competitive- ness to be first to market, to be customer-responsive, and to have the highest productivity rates. Being first to market generally means higher profit margins and larger market shares. But such a focus on time-based processes requires the adoption of quality principles and total quality management. Thus to be globally competitive, manufacturing companies must master the basics of continuous learning and improving through a quality orientation. They then can take the next step, which is to drive time from their processes.

SIDNEY F. HEATH III 163 Given the pace of technological change and the increasing competitiveness of the global marketplace, rates of productivity improvement are a critical deter- minant of financial success. Over the long term, successful manufacturing com- panies can realize productivity rates twice as high as those of their competitors or even higher.2 Indeed, operations that focus on productivity, create an innovative environment, and drive for results can actually outperform average operations two to one. This capability then becomes a long-term differentiator that is diffi- cult to duplicate because the requisite skills have been deeply imbedded in the work force. Furthermore, because the advantages of proprietary technologies have been disappearing, and the returns on sales, revenue growth, and product life cycles have been declining at double-digit rates,3 successful global manufac- turing operations must leverage their learning and integration across their entire production network where capabilities and learning are done globally. This in turn implies that each location will depend heavily on the skills and resources at other locations. Developing countries that can establish a climate conducive to building systematic, comprehensive approaches to continuous innovation and productivity will find that manufacturing sectors are better able to thrive. TRENDS IN MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY Any understanding of the shifts in electronics manufacturing requires an in- depth look at the trends affecting the five major manufacturing processes: manu- facturing assembly, designer interfaces, supplier interfaces, order realization, and distribution. This paper, however, will focus only on the first three processes, as well as the people who carry them out (Figure 1~. People The organizational structure of manufacturing and people's roles and re- sponsibilities in that structure are evolving from an environment geared toward managing people to one directed at coaching people and managing processes. Leading-edge manufacturers have been eliminating layers of management and developing effective communication capabilities for flatter organizations. Man- agement is no longer in the loop for all decisions; in its coaching role it now primarily sets direction, establishes commitment, and marshals resources. In the 1970s and early 1980s, employees at all levels were given relatively narrow job descriptions for specific, well-defined tasks because it was assumed that processes would remain stable. But in the 1980s, the realization dawned that processes evolve and therefore so should tasks. This notion called for pushing decision making down to the lowest possible level where the employees could add value by improving the process. Indeed, differential advantages could be obtained through empowered production associates who could identify and solve problems.

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SIDNEY F. HEATH III 165 This is one of the most misunderstood issues when evaluating the transfer of manufacturing technology. Facilities and buildings can be established in a rela- tively short period of time, but the development of the human capital is fairly invisible, expensive, difficult to assess, and the most time-consuming yet it is by far the most important aspect of technology transfer. Government policies that do not encourage a long-term bond between employer and employee further complicate this process. For example, if retirement programs are maintained by the government, employees are more apt to transfer to new employers after they have been trained by their present one. Where self-directed teams are implemented, improvements in all areas of manufacturing such as quality, productivity, cycle time, worker safety, and customer satisfaction are realized. In addition, layers of bureaucracy and many manufacturing costs can be eliminated. Yet, perhaps more important, workers are better able to adapt to the fast pace of technology change, thereby producing a more agile organization seeking to continually improve its ability to thrive in a competitive environment of continuous and unanticipated change while nimbly responding to rapidly changing, customer-driven markets. This process of lever- aging intellectual capital is key to the new manufacturing paradigms because this is where the wealth of the manufacturing competencies resides, not in the manu- facturing facilities. When this process is carried out properly, performance may improve by an order of magnitude over that of companies not at the leading edge.4 It must be remembered, however, that the effective utilization of high- performance teams will erode the advantages of low-cost labor unless the latter are similarly trained and empowered. When high-performance teams are in place, manufacturing management will have the time and energy to tackle the kinds of important strategic and financial issues facing any operation seeking to continually improve its operations. But what kind of management can provide the leadership and direction required? They are manufacturing professionals who are well versed in finance and who have social skills in addition to their knowledge of manufacturing. Fledgling manufacturing operations in developing countries may rely on costly expatriates to provide these qualities, but over the long run this is no substitute for the development and training of national manufacturing managers in order to be competitive and to harmonize the manufacturing operation to local environments. Such development and training will require the longest lead time of all the devel- opmental processes. Manufacturing Assembly In the early 1920s, manufacturing quality consisted primarily of product inspection for conformance. Statistical process control (SPC) was introduced in the 1940s to separate out assignable causes from natural variation and to monitor processes. But in the 40 years that followed, the management approach to SPC

166 Marshaling Technology for Development was misplaced, with the exception of Japan. In the mid-1980s, the responsibility for product quality was shifted from a staff organization of a few to everyone, the basis of total quality management (TQM). Juran's philosophy that most quality problems are related to the management systems and Deming's 14 points of quality management revitalized quality through the basics; such simple problem- solving tools as Pareto charts, histograms, and fishbone charts produced amazing results. Quality became a strategic issue so much so that many companies documented their processes and became ISO 9000 registered in the late 1980s. Today, this emphasis on quality is extending into programs that provide customer feedback on the competitors' performances. In fact, customer surveys have become a key source of customer data for directing quality improvements. Customer value-added (CVA) analysis (a way of looking at oneself through the eyes of one's customers) further refines customer feedback and serves as a basis for proactive improvement programs. One important aspect of the customer focus is the notion of competing through time and understanding the entire customer relationship. In the early 1990s, the availability of personal computers allowed SPC calcu- lations to be figured in real time, cost-effectively. Many factories have continu- ous automated data collection and process control chart monitoring, allowing the ongoing analysis of feedback data. As trends are discovered and analyzed, pro- cesses are optimized. Two major developments in this area are, first, a move toward designing a process right the first time and including sufficient robust parameters so that data collection and charting are not necessary, and, second, the implementation of new hearty data collection systems that will accommodate product flexibility and early ramp-up of new designs. During the last five years, the science of environmental stress testing has matured, improving the reliability of the product as seen by the customer. This was carried out first in the manufacturing process and has now moved upstream into the concurrent design process during the early prototype stage. In the current environmental stress testing, new designs are functionally tested to establish upper and lower temperature bounds with voltage variations. Emerging technolo- gies include clock variations, faster temperature fluctuations, shock, mechanical vibrations, electrostatic discharge (ESD), and artificial lightning. The next phase of process control is off-line real-time video monitoring of manufacturing processes to strengthen the understanding of the underlying manu- facturing science. The thrust is beyond six sigma expectations (quality levels) for manufacturing operations to six sigma goals for entire manufacturing lines. Lead- ing-edge manufacturing operations will have performance levels that qualify for recognition by government and international quality awards for example, the Deming Prize, European Quality Award, and Baldrige Award. Their manufac- turing operations will perform at these levels regardless of their country of Operation. Customer requirements and competitive pressures will demand a manufac

SIDNEY F. HEATH III 167 luring management discipline that concentrates on continuous improvement in product and process quality. Without this passion, the manufacturing operations will not be able to compete globally. Developing countries can foster this climate by offering quality recognition awards that require the very highest levels of quality excellence, encourage quality training, and sponsor quality registration programs. In packaging, electronics manufacturing technology is evolving quickly to keep pace with the silicon density revolution. The trend toward finer pitch and denser electronic assemblies has enabled moves toward densification to provide more functionality in the same space and miniaturization to produce a product that is smaller than similar products of the recent past. During the early 1980s, electronic assembly focused primarily on leaded devices that were placed in holes on printed wiring boards (PWBs) and then wave soldered. In the mid-1980s, surface mount began replacing through-hole assem- bly; the main advantage of surface mount: it enables double-sided assembly and more interconnect and thus higher density. It also uses the stencil print, place, and reflow process, which is more consistent and allows finer pitch than through- hole. In the late 1980s, surface mount pitch was reduced from 0.100 inch to 0.050 inch and in the l990s to 0.025 inch and 0.020 inch. The trend continues to push the limits further to 0.015 inch and 0.012 inch, but probably will not extend beyond without additional technology. As the pitch becomes finer, the leads are more susceptible to damage during handling and the coplanarity of PWBs affects the soldering consistency. Because the trend to surface mount designs is well under way, it is now becoming difficult to procure the older through-hole pack- ages. This trend has contributed to a trend toward hiring fewer, but more highly skilled, employees (Figure 21. Another package technology, the ball grid array (BOA), does not have a peripherally leaded interconnect; the input/output (I/O) are distributed over the area of the package face in an array. The main advantages of this approach are that the fragile leads are replaced with solder balls and the pitch for the same I/O is greater, thus making device to PWB assembly easier. A major benefit is that the existing surface mount assembly equipment is reusable. The next industry step toward smaller packages, called direct chip attach (DCA), is to eliminate the package altogether and attach the silicon chip directly to the substrate. The method of attaching the chip directly with conductive adhe- sive, electrically interconnected with wirebonding, is called chip-on-board. An important approach, known as chip-scale packaging, puts an interlayer on the chip for protection during handling and also provides compliance. When the chip is placed on glass substrate (as in displays), the arrangement is called chip-on- glass. When the chip is placed face down, directly on the substrate or glass, it is called flip-chip. In the cases of direct chip attach, the packages are more suscep- tible to damage from electrostatic discharge and require other than conventional surface mount assembly equipment.

168 Pin Count 1 ,000- 500- 128- 64- 32 16- A_ Marshaling Technology fo' Development 1980 1 985 ... .. PGA ~ .. . . ... I,. .. . .. ... .. .. . 1990 199 1 1992 1993 1994 1995 2000 ., . ... .. .~ ::: i. ..~ ., . - ,, EIG: ~ ~ ed~ _~ ~ ~ A, 3 Memory ~ ... O-~ Through Hole Surface Mount Fine Pitch /Thin PIN PGA DIPS PLCC QFP SOJ Small outline J-shaped leads package SSOP Shrink small outline package TSOP Thin small outline package Electrical interconnect points Pin grid array Dual in-line packages Plastic leaded chip carrier Quad flat pack (Type 1) Memory MOP Multichip package BGA Ball grid array UTSOP Ultra-thin small outline package PCMCIA Personal computer memory card international association TSSOP Thin shrink small outline package MOM Multichip module TAB Tape automated bonding FIGURE 2 The evolution of packaging. Traditionally, electronic products have been tested, first, for structural integ- rity (presence of parts, orientation, continuity) and then for function. The struc- tural test used a "bed of nails" and sophisticated test computers to test continuity on many circuit paths through small probes ("nails"~. Functional testing checked the overall PWB function through its I/O connectorts). As packaging technology leaned toward finer pitch and more functionality in less space, space for the bed- of-nails testing became limited. Probe pitch in the 1980s was typically 0.100 inch. It improved to 0.050 inch and in some cases to 0.025 inch, but most circuits were much denser and probe points on circuits were using space on the PWBs that components could use. Thus test coverage was dramatically limited. The new methods are the boundary scan, to overcome probe density limita- tions in the structural test, and the built-in self-test (BIST) for chip-level func- tional testing of digital devices. Use of BIST requires that a portion of the silicon chip be set aside for self-test the test probes are etched in silicon when the device is made, and several LO are reserved for initiating and accessing the result of the self-test. This technology is being implemented first in processors and memory devices. The boundary scan method checks the interconnect between devices. The combination of boundary scan and BIST may someday replace bed

SIDNEY F. HEATH III 169 of-nails and functional testing for many products and enable high reliability of even more complex electronic devices. The basic interconnect material between components and the PWB is tin- lead solder, used in various proportions to achieve different melting temperatures for a variety of applications. In the 1980s and early 1990s, much progress was made toward developing water-soluble fluxes and lead-free solders, and the fu- ture will see less use of hazardous materials such as lead and some fluxes. leading to "greener" manufacturing processes. Computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) has progressed to the point where most manufacturing lines producing a diversity of electronic products use auto- matic product identifiers and download programs for assembly sequencing and process recipes. Operations without this capability have a much higher setup time and cost and cannot compete as effectively. The integration of multiple software systems allows the seamless electronic transfer of manufacturing information all the way from schematic design to building the materials lists for the material resource planning (MRP) systems. Capabilities now exist for global CIM so that designers and manufacturing locations can be effectively linked independent of their country of origin. Electronic data transfer systems can be expensive, how- ever, if facilities have to be installed specifically for CIM data transfers. In these cases, speed and response time requirements will typically determine the commu . . nlcatlon mode. Generally, most of the individual facilities required for manufacturing steps are available globally to all manufacturers. Support for such facilities, however, may require the availability of trained technicians on the premises and experts on call for emergency support. Technical information is readily available at trade shows and training centers and through various associations such as the Society of Manufacturing Engineers, Surface Mount Equipment Manufacturers Associa- tion, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and NEPCON electronics exhibitions. Significant improvements in processes become well known and avail- able relatively quickly, yet the performance of a manufacturing operation is driven primarily by the effective integration of many processes and operating procedures, for which the integration capabilities or recipes generally are not readily available and, in reality, are dependent on the competencies in the manu- facturing operation. Access to these capabilities or recipes is best obtained through technology transfer agreements such as joint ventures or licensing. Without an effective technology transfer program, developing countries can easily choose the wrong equipment (which may be right for other applications) or not integrate the equipment correctly. Design Interfaces In a competitive environment that is global, intense, and dynamic, the devel- opment of new products and processes is becoming the focal point of competi

170 Marshaling Technology for Development lion. Manufacturing companies that can get to market faster and more efficiently with products that are well matched to the needs and expectations of the customer create significant market leverage in both market share and margin. In the 1960s, design and manufacturing had separate departments of special- ists. Designers converted marketing's features requirements into a set of draw- ings and other documentation that specified a product for manufacturing to build. Design was further subdivided into process and product design. Working within these organizational dividers ("walls"), marketing threw requests over the wall to product design; in turn, process designers and product designers threw their specifications over the wall to manufacturing. As a result, manufacturing built products without a deep understanding of the customers' needs. In the 1 970s, it was recognized that if designers had a better understanding of how a product is built, they would design products that were easier and cheaper to manufacture. Soon, then, design-for-assembly (DFA) analysis tools were devel- oped and applied. These tools stressed the importance of minimizing part counts by expanding the functionality of design elements and minimizing handling and orientation changes. From the DFA push evolved a more general look at design- for-manufacturability (DFM) and then design-for-X (DFX), where X has come to mean any downstream process such as design-for-logistics, design-for-test, de- sign-for-installation, or design-for-environment. In the electronics industry, the increase in silicon density and consequently the ability to provide more features and functionality in the same space also have contributed to closer ties between manufacturing and design. Competition to provide advanced consumer electronics products to the marketplace has led com- panies to capitalize on the advantages of closer manufacturing and design organi- zations and the breaking down of the former walls. Design has evolved from a serial-design/build/test work mode to a model-and-simulate/test-build/verify con- current engineering approach. Trends in information technology have decreased the costs of design work- station platforms by 10 percent a year and increased their computing power by 30 percent a year. The development of information systems has become more effi- cient because of database independence foundations and object-oriented design methodologies. Global movements of product design data, facilitated by im- provements in local area and wide area networks, have enabled designs to be simulated at the circuit pack and system level before any prototypes are built. Although the capability to use simulation of firmware and diagnostic software exists, cost-effective computing power is still a bottleneck for the aggressive projects. Many of the DFX rules are built into the CAD (computer-aided design) tools. Now cross-functional teams address and overcome issues in the early stages of a new product, allowing manufacturing to participate early in the product development cycle and resulting in more manufacturable, quicker-to-market, cost- effective products. Information technology has provided the capability to elec

SIDNEY F. HEATH III 171 tropically carry out concurrent design and reviews at different geographic loca- tions. Because many electronic product life cycles are now measured in months instead of years, the initial design must be correct the first time. There is no longer time to cycle through iterations of design. Since as much as 75-90 percent of manufacturing costs are determined in the design stage, effective concurrent design in product and process is paramount to bringing new products with superior performance to market. Often the design architectures are determined by global technology trends (for example, micropro- cessors or memories) that basically determine how costs are distributed between materials and labor and load (overhead) costs. Even the options between different manufacturing operations (such as providing for more or less labor) are becoming more limited. The percentage of manufacturing costs assigned to material has stayed relatively flat over the last 10 years for any particular product family, but more products are like consumer products, with a lower percentage of labor and load. In addition, the labor and load content has shifted from the workers directly assembling the product to the support personnel, and this shift is particularly acute in small factories. For developing countries, these trends make the transition to manufacturing more challenging and reduce the global advantage of having low-cost labor in an unskilled work force. These challenges can be addressed by fostering a climate in which local manufacturing can leverage off a global production network for the initial development and shake-out of new products and processes. The leveraging requires effective global communication networks, efficient import/export poli- cies, unrestricted travel, joint ventures with greater than 50 percent ownership by foreigners, and localization expectations consistent with realistic economic as- sessments. The developing countries also can foster the development of a skilled work force, well trained in the quality basics along with the basic sciences. Sponsorships of trade shows, professional associations, and training centers also will foster the right learning environment. Supplier Interfaces Because 75-90 percent of the value of typical electronic products is deter- mined by the suppliers of the components, the relationship between component suppliers and the assembly operations has changed significantly over the last 10- 15 years. Material resources planning (MRP) enabled organizations to plan and execute production and material requirements effectively in complex environ- ments. It thereby introduced discipline and structure to the relationship between the manufacturing operation and the supplier. In the mid-1980s, just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing focused attention on reductions in waste and lead times as well as throughput improvements. In the push to minimize inventory, suppliers were asked to ship in smaller and smaller lot sizes with higher frequency. This shift to just-in-time inventory drove suppliers and producers closer together.

172 Marshaling Technology for Development Thus relationships with suppliers have evolved from arm's-length customer-sup- plier ones to long-term, almost coproducer ones. Multiple suppliers no longer compete on price for the same part; now the best suppliers are sought out and retained as a primary source that will provide the lowest world-class total cost of ownership. Price continues to be important, but other criteria (delivery, quality, . ~ . . . proximity) are given appropriate consideration. In this closer relationship, which allows producer and supplier to work to- gether, producers help to improve supplier quality and suppliers participate in plans for new designs. As a result, component defect levels have dropped drasti- cally. Multiple-level, two-way contacts allow broad sharing of process, quality, and schedule information. To facilitate the process improvements, many manu- facturers now have formal quality review procedures in place. To facilitate shar- ing of information, corporations with larger stakes in each other's mutual success have linked key material databases and synchronized schedules. Producers and suppliers are typically located in geographical clusters to facilitate JIT. As the distances between suppliers and assembly decrease, so does the inventory as a percentage of sales. Leading-edge procurement (LEP) arrange- ments, techniques, or processes are established to streamline transactions, elimi- nate purchase orders or manual intervention, and add valued services. As a result of such steps, suppliers are able to provide their clients with the benefits of inventory reduction, supply assurance, and on-site support through such pro- cesses as consignment of materials, dock-to-stock shipments, breadman and de- mand pull. LEP transactional provisioning converts the previous manual transac- tions into electronic data interchange using such systems as Conversant (voice messages) or EDI/EFT/EDS (electronic data interchange/electronic funds trans- fer/electronic data systems). This trend of supplier and manufacturer working together to eliminate wasted costs and time is likely to continue (Figure 3~. Localization of suppliers for any manufacturing operation is a significant concern when establishing operations in a developing country. BuLky, low-tech- nology parts such as plastic and metalware are usually the first to be localized, although even this effort is often underestimated because these components often require unique properties and high quality. The value of these products will vary by product family, but the low-technology parts are typically less than 10 percent of the material cost of the final electronic product. The next level of localization requires significantly more technology transfer for such technologies as printed wiring boards and passive components. The final localization steps into the high- technology areas of integrated circuits and displays will probably be taken only if there are significant market opportunities to justify the large capital investments. Given these considerations, it is important that developing countries have an effective infrastructure and transportation system that can handle the importation of the components for assembly during these countries' initial thrust into a manu- facturing economy. With intense competition driving suppliers toward thinner margins (less

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174 Marshaling Technology for Development margin or profitability), the inventory costs of finished goods in-transit also become a more significant factor in establishing global manufacturing locations. In fact, inventory carrying costs can offset some or all of the advantages obtained from lower labor rates. As a result, manufacturing companies will be driven to seek manufacturing locations closer to their ultimate customer even if it means higher labor costs. When electronic manufacturing is established in developing countries, the supporting infrastructure and supply base will be motivated to move with it but at a slightly offset scale. The lack of a developed supplier base can significantly impact the competitiveness of a manufacturing operation when the lead times are lengthened and the inventories are increased to accommodate the need to import components not available in the local economy. The situation is further exacer- bated when the physical and institutional infrastructures do not support consistent transportation intervals. In the global arena, competition occurs among full-stream production networks, sometimes called "value chains," and not simply between manufacturing locations. Consequently, developing countries need to understand the potential for the entire production network, not just the assembly operations in their country. Steps to foster a climate and infrastructure for suppliers-such as establishing industrial parks with the appropriate facilities, duty-free zones, simple import/duty regulations, and transportation will make the transition to manufacturing more effective. SUMMARY In summary, rich information technology, globalization, and ever-increasing global competition are the key forces driving manufacturing technology trends. Recent improvements in manufacturing operations, supplier relationships, con- current design tools and methodology, and the capabilities of the people who make it all happen should provide insight into the approaches to nurturing manu- facturing in any country. If developing countries can foster an environment in which their manufacturing operations can realize the benefits of this changing landscape, they will be able to enjoy the economic effects of a viable manufactur- ing operation. NOTES 1. Francis Stewart, "A Look at the Ups and Down," Circuits Assembly (September 1992): 25. 2. Arthur P. Cimento, Jurgen Luge, and Lothar Stein, "Excellence in Electronics," McKinsey Quarterly 3 (1993). 3. Ibid. 4. Jeffrey H. Dyer, "Dedicated Assets: Japan's Manufacturing Edge," [Iarvard Business Review (November-December 1994).

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Recent technological advances, particularly in microelectronics and telecommunications, biotechnology, and advanced materials, pose critical challenges and opportunities for developing countries, and for the development banks and other organizations that serve them. Those countries that fail to adapt to the transformations driven by new technologies in industry, agriculture, health, environment, energy, education, and other sectors may find it difficult to avoid falling behind. This book represents a joint effort by the World Bank and the National Research Council to survey the status and effect of technology change in key sectors and to recommend action by the development organizations, government, private sector and the scientific and technological community.

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