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OCR for page 237
Sustainable Development:
Mirage or Achievable Goal?
ROBERT M. WHITE
President. National Academy of Engineering
Environmental issues are quintessential global problems that require policy
makers to consider all the options offered by science, technology, economics, and
social science if they are to address these issues wisely. Policy makers also must
ask themselves: Is environmentally sustainable economic growth a mirage or an
attainable goal? If such growth is attainable, where can intellectual and financial
investments make a substantial difference?
For many years the conventional wisdom, especially in much of the develop-
ing world, was that environmental protection and economic development were
largely incompatible. In 1987, however, the report of the United Nations' Brundt-
land Commission, Our Common Future, argued against this view. The idea that
the environment and development are not antithetical became the philosophical
framework for the UN Conference on Environment and Development, which
convened in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and it is now the overarching philosophy
guiding world actions. Indeed, the phrase "sustainable development" has become
the global environmental watchword, capturing the idea that economic develop-
ment can be environmentally sustainable. Moreover, this concept suggests that
sustainable development not only is a desirable goal, but also is necessary to
prevent eventual global, societal, and environmental collapse. Early adherents to
this view envisioned a sufficient transfer of resources from the industrialized to
developing nations to enable this grand global bargain to be consummated. The
Global Environmental Facility (GEF) of the World Bank was the result.
But now society is on the road from Rio to reality, and the road is riddled
with potholes political, economic, technological, scientific, and otherwise.
Charting the pathways to sustainable economic growth will require understand
237
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Marshaling Technology for Development
ing of the forces that lead to unsustainability: population growth, the drive for
economic and social equity, the need for adequate food and energy, and the
longtime trend toward increased industrialization to provide goods and services.
The complexity of this global dilemma stems from the lack of ways to
address the interconnections among these driving forces. A growing population
requires more land for human habitation and food production, which leads to soil
erosion and the degradation of virgin lands. Animal habitats are affected, which
leads in turn to the extinction of some species. The net result is an impoverished
resource base to sustain life. Or again, increased industrial and agricultural pro-
duction to achieve higher living standards requires more energy, thus increasing
greenhouse gas emissions and the production of other pollutants. The conse-
quences are climatic warming, urban air pollution, and degraded aquatic systems.
Approaches to environmental problems are rendered even more difficult
because many environmental problems are global, requiring action across na-
tions. Yet any action only can be taken locally in countries with different politi-
cal, social, and economic systems, cultures, levels of education, and capacities in
science and technology.
The dilemma is an ancient one. Two hundred years ago, Thomas Malthus
pointed out the expected long-term consequences of unrestrained population
growth in the face of a limited food supply. In more recent years, studies such as
those of the Club of Rome have addressed the consequences of unrestrained
growth in the face of limited resources. The Club of Rome's 1972 report Limits to
Growth foresaw nothing but a global apocalypse.2
But the apocalyptic nature of many of these analyses of global systems has
so far failed the test of reality. For example, Malthus could not foresee the
revolution in food production that science and technology would produce. The
green revolution has turned food-importing nations into food-exporting nations,
and the future promises continued quantum leaps in food production as genetic
engineering yields greater and more resilient crop strains and promises to multi-
ply key aspects of animal productivity. Energy supplies have systematically in-
creased despite predictions that reserves of fossil fuels will decline. Science and
technology have made possible the discovery of new energy sources even as they
have made nuclear and renewable sources technically practical. Technology itself
has been central to the processes of change that have made it possible to avert
predictions of environmental calamities by providing expanded options in infra-
structure, habitat, and lifestyles for what in the end is determined on socioeco-
nomic grounds through the political process.
The effects of advances in science and technology historically have been
hard to predict. For example, the following scientific and technological discover-
ies and developments took place less than 50 years ago, yet they already have had
profound impacts the way we live, think, and conduct business and our everyday
lives. The first commercial jet aircraft flew only in 1949, although the first
experimental jet was introduced in 1939. The power of the atom, when harnessed,
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ROBERT M. WHITE
239
was unfortunately demonstrated in the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in
1945. In 1953, Watson and Crick unraveled the secret of the double helix and the
DNA molecule, opening the era of molecular biology and genetic engineering
and technology. Earth-orbiting satellites were not introduced until 1957 by the
Russians, and the transistor and its progeny the microchip, the personal com-
puter, and modern communications did not make their debut until 1948. Fiber
optics and the laser are only 30 years old. And the birth-control pill arrived in
1957. Any attempts to predict future scientific discoveries or technological devel-
opments will be uncertain at best. Indeed, one cannot extrapolate the future
assuming a dumb world in which intellectual power and humanity's capacity to
choose is straitjacketed. Predictions of the future that assume an unchanging
response by society are doomed to apocalyptic conclusions.
Historically, scientific discoveries and technological developments have
serendipitously ameliorated environmental deterioration or have produced unan-
ticipated deleterious effects. For example, gas from oil wells was flared as a
useless byproduct of oil production until technology provided ways to use it eco-
nomically. The use of creosote to preserve wooden railroad ties effectively protected
forests by reducing the number of trees harvested. The internal combustion en-
gine changed the face of society, rescuing it from the pollution of horse-drawn
carriages and exposing it to pollution from auto exhausts. In more recent times,
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were introduced as a safety measure in refrigeration
systems to replace ammonia. But their very desirable inert character enabled
these chemicals to reach the stratosphere (unaffected by lower atmospheric pro-
cessesJ, where their decomposition in the presence of sunlight released the chlo-
rine atoms that are thought to trigger the depletion of stratospheric ozone.
Until recently, technological innovations, with some notable exceptions such
as the development of sanitary water supply systems, were motivated by eco-
nomic interests. Their environmental implications, good or bad, anticipated or
unanticipated, were considered side effects. Today, by contrast, environmental
benefits are often explicit objectives of technological innovation. For example,
the remarkable degree to which digital information technologies can control in-
dustrial processes is now minimizing effluents and emissions in ways that were
not possible earlier. Modern-day engineering design concepts (for automobiles,
for example) take into account the reuse and recyclability of products. And mate-
rial substitution is minimizing environmental problems and dematerializing prod-
ucts. Outstanding examples are the new chemicals developed to replace chloro-
fluorocarbons in refrigeration systems and as solvents. Finally, modern human
reproduction technologies such as the birth-control pill and RU 486 give men and
women more control over the size of their families and the spacing of their
children. In short, none of the forces causing global environmental unsustain-
ability is immune from the effects of developments in science and technology,
although the adoption of various technologies is sometimes painfully slowed by
cultural and social practices and the lack of political will.
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Marshaling Technology for Development
Environmental technologies, or better technologies for the environment
, _ ~1_ _ _ 1 _ _ ~.. . .
cover a wide spectrum of engineering activities that embrace, among other things,
the technologies for avoiding pollution or other kinds of environmental deteriora-
tion; the technologies for monitoring and assessing environmental conditions or
the release of pollutants and effluents; the approaches to controlling industrial
processes in order to minimize pollutants entering the environment; and the ap-
proaches to restoring environmental ecosystems. Markets in the developed world
for environmental technologies are large, and export markets in the developing
world can be expected to follow in the years ahead. The market today for environ-
mental technologies is about $300 billion a year and may reach $425 billion in a
few years.
DEFINING THE PROBLEMS
As World Bank and other reports point out, perhaps the most pressing global
environmental problem is the lack of clean water. People in developing countries
suffer from a disproportionate amount of water-borne diseases. For example, the
United Nations Children's Fund estimates that about 40,000 children die every
day, mainly from preventable water-borne diseases. But to solve this problem
there is no need to develop new technologies: it has been known for many
decades how to devise sanitary water supply systems.
The second most pervasive environmental problem is urban air pollution.
Here again much is known about the technologies for controlling this problem,
but as populations continue to concentrate in large cities, this problem will only
grow worse. In fact, the number of cities with populations of over 10 million is
expected to grow from the present 13 to over 25 in the next 15 years. These
megacities will give new urgency to the need to address urban air pollution and
other urban environmental problems.
At an even more fundamental level is soil erosion. Soil quantity and quality
are being rapidly depleted in many countries of the world. As the pressure to
increase food production continues, lands that are more marginal will be brought
into use. Just as for water sanitation, however, the technologies to improve soil
conservation are well known; they only need to be adopted worldwide.
Finally, there are the truly global environmental problems whose causes and
effects are widely dispersed and whose resolution will require international ac-
tion. These problems include but are not restricted to acid deposition, climatic
warming, ocean oil spills, and loss of biodiversity.
PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
The present great wave of new technologies and technological concepts
collectively represents a new environmental technological offensive. Properly
directed and financed, this offensive could open pathways to an environmentally
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241
sustainable future as well as restore damaged environments. Technological inno-
vation by itself is a necessary, but insufficient, means to that end. Wise socioeco-
nomic and political choices also must be made as society comes to grips with the
inevitable trade-offs between environment, population size and distribution, life-
style, and economic resources, to form the basis for guiding useful technological
development.
Take, for example, the progress that has been made in energy technologies.
The production, distribution, and use of energy have widespread, diverse envi-
ronmental consequences. But advances in energy production, storage, and use
now make the entire energy supply and demand system more efficient and less
demanding of fossil and other fuels. Combined-cycle gas turbines, new emission-
control systems, improved technologies for suppressing auto emissions, increased
use of less-polluting fossil fuels such as natural gas, increased use of renewable
energy sources, as well as a host of new demand-side energy technologies such as
more efficient lighting, appliances, and insulation are conscious attempts to mini
. . .
maze environmental Impacts.
What is taking place is encouraging. In fact, the entire industrial approach to
producing goods and services is being viewed in a new way as a living system.
Just as in biological systems, industrial metabolism is measured by the inputs of
energy and resources and by the outputs of useful products and "wastes" of
various kinds-emissions to the atmosphere, effluents into rivers, solid wastes
into landfills. Useful products also become wastes as soon as they are consumed
and discarded. Although some of these discards and wastes can be used in other
production processes, others, unfortunately, are widely dispersed and are irre-
trievably dissipated into the environment.
But one company's or person's waste can be another's valuable input an
industrial analogy to natural ecosystems and the concept of industrial ecosys-
tems is now taking hold. Natural ecosystems usually are sustainable or slowly
changing except for external forces. The primary energy and resource inputs
result in a food chain and the behavior patterns of living organisms that sustain
themselves and their systems. There are few wastes in natural ecosystems. Wastes
are generally inputs to other parts of the system, thereby sustaining the diversity
of life and plant forms.
Can technology help humans to mimic such natural systems? Could the
wastes in one part of an industrial ecosystem become inputs to other parts of the
system? Using technology, researchers should soon come close to providing
acceptable systems for social choice. The present crude attempts to mimic natural
ecosystems are but the first halting steps toward sustainable economic growth-
the environmental Holy Grail. The practices needed are just beginning to be
formulated and introduced. Recycling mimics some aspects of natural ecosys-
tems, and a variety of recycling practices are now taking hold. For example, scrap
iron has long been recycled to produce iron and steel, and attempts are being
made to recycle aluminum, copper, and gold.
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The incentives to recycle are largely economic in a free-market system.
When free-market economic incentives are lacking, they have been created artifi-
cially through legislated regulatory measures or taxes remedies for market fail-
ures that cannot and do not reflect the costs of externalities. Some countries now
mandate recycling through "take back" legislation in which the manufacturer
takes responsibility for the reuse of product materials at the end of the product's
useful life. Recycling of paper, glass, and other kinds of wastes also is now
mandated in many communities. Certain mixtures of gasoline and oxidants, such
as methanol or ethanol, are mandated as well to reduce auto emissions. In short,
it is now possible to choose among economic costs and possibilities in order to
elicit the desired environmental results. Even though people frequently lack the
political will to accept the trade-offs in cost and lifestyles, technology can help to
make these trade-offs more acceptable.
Kalundborg, Denmark, is a particularly pertinent and successful example of
the application of industrial ecological principles and the degree to which it is
presently possible to mimic natural ecosystems. This small industrial city is home
to a Statoil Corporation oil refinery; Denmark's largest power plant, Asnaes-
verket; a plaster board manufacturing plant, Gyproc; and Novo Nordisk, a bio-
technology plant that produces 45 percent of the world's insulin and 50 per-
cent of the world's enzymes. In this city, which is surrounded by a farming
community: refinery wastewater is used for power plant cooling; excess refinery
gas and sulphur recovered by the refinery is used by Gyproc to produce plaster
board; biological sludge from the pharmaceutical plant is used by farmers; steam
from the power plant is used by the pharmaceutical company; fly ash from the
power plant is used by cement manufacturers in a different town; and waste heat
from the power plant is used by the municipality for its heating distribution
system, as well as for fish farming. As a result, resource use is reduced: oil by
19,000 tons a year, coal by 30,000 tons a year, and water by 1.2 million tons a
year. Emissions are reduced as well: carbon dioxide by 130,000 tons a year and
sulphur oxide by 25,000 tons a year. Kalundborg is a very clean industrial town.
Such examples are encouraging, but by themselves they will fall short of the
goal of sustainable economic growth. It is in humanity's power, however, by
investing its intellectual and financial resources in promising new technologies,
to change population growth rates, the modes of food and energy production, and
its industrial and agricultural processes. It is also possible to reverse and restore
natural environmental systems that through neglect and misuse have deteriorated,
notwithstanding the formidable cultural, religious, and social obstacles that must
be overcome.
The World Bank and others could invest in both the intellectual framework
for advancing the concepts of industrial ecology and the actual demonstration in
developing nations of new environmentally sound industrial practices. Also prom-
ising as an area of focus for the World Bank is technological capacity-building.
Scientists speak frequently of science capacity-building. In fact, the START pro
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243
gram proposed by the International Council of Scientific Unions would educate
and train scientists in order to create an indigenous understanding of environmen-
tal science. And the United States and other Western Hemisphere nations have
agreed to an inter-American network of such environmental training centers.
Another fruitful area is in the support of systems studies, not for prediction of
the course of future events but to indicate possible areas of research at the inter-
face between the forces that drive unsustainability: population, economics, envi-
ronment, and technology. An overarching framework is needed for considering
the complexity of the issue. Groups around the world that already are considering
pathways to sustainability could progress much faster with additional support.
Finally, improved ways of communicating and demonstrating best environ-
mental practices in various industrial sectors are needed, as well as international
support for promising environmental technologies.
Sustainability is not a new concept; traditionally it has been applied in the
management of renewable resources for example, fisheries and forestry. It is
now time to enhance industry's ability to mimic natural ecosystems, thereby
helping today's complex industrial society reach an acceptable level of
sustainability.
A vision of the environmental future essential to the survival of humanity is
now emerging, and it is within society's power to make the choices and marshal
the efforts necessary to travel this road. This is a task for global collaboration, and
nothing could be more worthy of humanity than such a crusade. As humanitarian
and environmentalist Rene Dubos has said, "Trends are not destiny."
NOTES
1. World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future: A Report of the
World Commission on Environment and Development (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987).
2. Donella H. Meadows et al., The Limits of Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project
on the Predicament of Mankind (London: Earth Island Limited, 1972).
OCR for page 244
Representative terms from entire chapter:
power plant
