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PAPERBACK price:$156.00 add to cart Rights & Permissions Free PDF Access Sign in to download PDF book and chapters Free Resources PDF SUMMARY Display this book on your site! Related Titles Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years Understanding Earth's Deep Past:Lessons for Our Climate Future Other Related Titles Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales (1995) Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources (CGER) Citation Manager Export the bibliographic data for this book in your chosen format Web Search Builder Use this book's key terms to search within this book, across our collection, or across the Web. Skim This Chapter Skim this chapter and use this chapter's key terms to search within this book. Reference Finder Paste in your own text to find books that relate to your topic. Citation Manager . "INDEX." Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1995. Please select a format: Page 615   E-mail Share on facebook Facebook Share on delicious Delicious Share on stumbleupon Stumble Share on twitter Twitter More Sharing ServicesMore The following HTML text is provided to enhance online readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML. Please use the page image as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy. Index A Abiyata, Lake, 508, 509 Abrupt climate change, 8, 15, 21, 534-536, 540, 600, 603 Acoustic tomography, 238, 273 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 508, 509 Aerosols. See also Sulfate aerosols; other specific aerosols coral records of, 498 modeling, 166 volcanic, 193-194, 196 Africa. See also Sahel; other specific regions and countries droughts, 35 rainfall variability, 32-43 African Easterly Jet, 43, 47 Agadez, 35 Agassiz Ice Cap, 24, 554 Aghullas retroflection, 537 Agung, Mt., 194 Air temperature (land and marine). See also Land temperature; Ocean temperature; Sea surface temperature abrupt changes, 534-535 anomalies, 98-104, 106-109, 128, 202-203, 207 anthropogenic influences on, 92-94 and atmospheric circulation, 116, 124-128, 600 carbon dioxide and, 57, 90, 96, 97-99, 105-106, 167-168, 183, 195-196, 207, 493, 533, 573-574 century means, 26 cloud cover and, 15-16, 90-92, 93, 95 decadal-scale variability, 13, 23, 85-87, 97-110, 200, 201, 208, 209, 367, 516-517, 520, 523-532 dipole patterns, 124-125, 127 diurnal range (DTR), 81-96 dust generation and, 573 El Niño events and, 99, 103, 105-106, 115, 167, 202-204, 207, 208, 209 empirical orthogonal analysis of, 190, 200, 201, 203, 205, 272 globally averaged, 13, 57, 97-107, 121, 126, 195, 200, 204, 207, 600 gradual warming trend, 600-601 and Great Salinity Anomaly, 326 greenhouse gases and, 92-94, 95 greenhouse warming and, 54-55 and Gulf Stream, 125-126 hemispheric means, 514-516 interannual variability, 67, 103, 107-110, 203, 204, 219 latitude and, 54, 165, 200-202, 204-206, 207 marine, 105, 122-124, 514-516, 574 meridional advection, 137 microwave soundings, 200, 202, 203, 204, 206, 207, 208-209 models/modeling, 90-92, 164-165, 176 North Atlantic, 123, 125-128, 317, 434-436, 533, 534, 600, 601 North Pacific climate and, 473-474, 475-476 periodicity in, 13, 97-104 and plant microclimates, 577-579 and pressure, 124-127, 527-528 radiosonde data, 205-206, 208-209 and rainfall, 43 records, 24, 28, 131, 167, 199-200, 422, 492, 516-517 relative humidity and, 90-92 sea ice and, 189, 251 sea surface temperature and, 261 seasonal patterns, 200-202, 204-206, 210, 436, 516, 520 snow cover and, 50-55, 57, 79, 90-92 and snowfall, 73-74, 78-79 soil moisture and, 53, 57, 89-90 spectral analysis, 100-104, 105, 525-527 stratospheric (lower), 206-207 structure of, 200-202, 204-206 sulfate aerosols and, 94 sunspot cycles and, 90-92, 97-99, 178-179, 192-193, 529-530, 532, 600 surface albedo and, 51-52 and thermohaline circulation, 434-436 tree-ring reconstructions of, 25-27, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520, 523-532, 600 tropospheric, 53, 116, 200, 202-206, 207 urban heat-island effects, 14, 61, 88-89, 521, 526 volcanism and, 185-186, 195, 206-207, 208, 209 wind and, 90-92, 125-126 winter, 12, 312 Akkadian culture, 493 Page 615 FRONT MATTER (R1-R14) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (1-4) INTRODUCTION (5-8) THE ATMOSPHERE (9-232) THE OCEAN (233-412) COUPLED SYSTEMS (413-488) PROXY INDICATORS OF CLIMATE (489-598) CONCLUSIONS (599-604) RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE VARIABILITY RESEARCH PRIORITIES (605-608) LIST OF PARTICIPANTS (609-614) INDEX (615-630)

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Index A Abiyata, Lake, 508, 509 Abrupt climate change, 8, 15, 21, 534-536, 540, 600, 603 Acoustic tomography, 238, 273 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 508, 509 Aerosols. See also Sulfate aerosols; other specific aerosols coral records of, 498 modeling, 166 volcanic, 193-194, 196 Africa. See also Sahel; other specific regions and countries droughts, 35 rainfall variability, 32-43 African Easterly Jet, 43, 47 Agadez, 35 Agassiz Ice Cap, 24, 554 Aghullas retroflection, 537 Agung, Mt., 194 Air temperature (land and marine). See also Land temperature; Ocean temperature; Sea surface temperature abrupt changes, 534-535 anomalies, 98-104, 106-109, 128, 202-203, 207 anthropogenic influences on, 92-94 and atmospheric circulation, 116, 124-128, 600 carbon dioxide and, 57, 90, 96, 97-99, 105-106, 167-168, 183, 195-196, 207, 493, 533, 573-574 century means, 26 cloud cover and, 15-16, 90-92, 93, 95 decadal-scale variability, 13, 23, 85-87, 97-110, 200, 201, 208, 209, 367, 516-517, 520, 523-532 dipole patterns, 124-125, 127 diurnal range (DTR), 81-96 dust generation and, 573 El Niño events and, 99, 103, 105-106, 115, 167, 202-204, 207, 208, 209 empirical orthogonal analysis of, 190, 200, 201, 203, 205, 272 globally averaged, 13, 57, 97-107, 121, 126, 195, 200, 204, 207, 600 gradual warming trend, 600-601 and Great Salinity Anomaly, 326 greenhouse gases and, 92-94, 95 greenhouse warming and, 54-55 and Gulf Stream, 125-126 hemispheric means, 514-516 interannual variability, 67, 103, 107-110, 203, 204, 219 latitude and, 54, 165, 200-202, 204-206, 207 marine, 105, 122-124, 514-516, 574 meridional advection, 137 microwave soundings, 200, 202, 203, 204, 206, 207, 208-209 models/modeling, 90-92, 164-165, 176 North Atlantic, 123, 125-128, 317, 434-436, 533, 534, 600, 601 North Pacific climate and, 473-474, 475-476 periodicity in, 13, 97-104 and plant microclimates, 577-579 and pressure, 124-127, 527-528 radiosonde data, 205-206, 208-209 and rainfall, 43 records, 24, 28, 131, 167, 199-200, 422, 492, 516-517 relative humidity and, 90-92 sea ice and, 189, 251 sea surface temperature and, 261 seasonal patterns, 200-202, 204-206, 210, 436, 516, 520 snow cover and, 50-55, 57, 79, 90-92 and snowfall, 73-74, 78-79 soil moisture and, 53, 57, 89-90 spectral analysis, 100-104, 105, 525-527 stratospheric (lower), 206-207 structure of, 200-202, 204-206 sulfate aerosols and, 94 sunspot cycles and, 90-92, 97-99, 178-179, 192-193, 529-530, 532, 600 surface albedo and, 51-52 and thermohaline circulation, 434-436 tree-ring reconstructions of, 25-27, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520, 523-532, 600 tropospheric, 53, 116, 200, 202-206, 207 urban heat-island effects, 14, 61, 88-89, 521, 526 volcanism and, 185-186, 195, 206-207, 208, 209 wind and, 90-92, 125-126 winter, 12, 312 Akkadian culture, 493

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Alaska meteorological network, 88, 89 precipitation, 55, 73, 77-78 temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 88, 89, 475, 476 Albedo, planetary, See also Atmospheric albedo 94; Ice-albedo feedback; Surface albedo Alerce trees (Fitzroya cupressoides), 494 Aleutian Low System, 134, 137, 139, 146, 475, 476, 478, 479, 480, 481 Algal blooms, 568-569 Allerød-Bølling interstadial complex, 552 Along-Track Scanning Radiometer, 508 Analysis of Rapid and Recent Climate Change (ARRCC), 196, 198, 431 Antarctic Bottom Water, 366, 384, 385, 388, 396, 537 Antarctic Circumpolar Current, 119, 140, 351, 371, 388, 395, 397, 401-402, 403, 406, 527, 528 Antarctic Intermediate Water, 385, 537 Antarctica ice, 208, 272 ice cores, 55, 119, 493 meteorological network, 201 snow cover, 50, 59 Anthropogenic changes to climate distinguishing between natural changes and, 7, 562, 567 modeling, 421, 430 and precipitation changes, 15 Arabian Sea, 53 Arctic climate cycle, 121, 129, 130, 237, 254-257, 261 fresh-water transport from, 313, 379-380 sea-level pressure, 260 sea ice, 243, 258, 260, 367 temperatures, 219 Arctic Climate Change Program (ACCP), 423-425 Arctic Climate System (ACSYS), 55 Arctic Institute, 252 Arctic Intermediate Water, 263, 309, 316, 383 Arctic Ocean air temperature, 436 circulation, 289 Eurasian Basin, 286, 287 fresh-water, 311, 315 runoff into, 129, 254-255, 257, 258-259, 262, 312, 314 salinity, 322 sea ice, 254, 424 snow, 62 temperatures, 31 tracer studies, 286 Arctic Red River (city), 257 Assessment of climate change. See also Climate-signal detection; Instrumental record; Models/modeling difficulties, 6-7, 13 information sources, 2, 6 measures of change, 6 observational data plus models, 601-602 spatial dependency, 7, 30 statistical characterizations, 7 Atbara, 35 Atlantic Climate Change Program, 239, 421, 423-425 Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current, 236, 239, 283-285, 289, 424 Atlantic Ocean. See also North Atlantic Ocean deep water, 303 eastern subtropical, 130 heat transport, 191, 529 models, 140, 385-397 overturning, 532 salinity, 386, 402-403, 404 surface properties, 21 temperature, 246, 260, 386, 509-510 water-mass distribution, 385 water properties, 21 wind stress, 386 Atlantic Voluntary Observing Ships Special Observing Project, 424 Atmospheric (cloud) albedo, 93, 94, 165 Atmospheric circulation. See also Coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation systems; Winds; specific features anticyclones, 90, 116-118, 128, 132, 255, 475 biennial-scale fluctuations, 128 century-scale variations, 117-118 cyclonic, 127, 357, 360, 362 data sources, 112, 113, 117-118 decadal-scale fluctuations, 13, 116-117, 128, 189 double jet structure, 119 eddy vorticity fluxes, 478 equivalent-barotropic vertical structure, 112, 113, 116, 118 glacial-to-interglacial transition, 552, 553 Hadley cell, 41, 193, 194 and heat-flux anomalies, 119, 128, 136-139, 147-148 inherent variability in, 188-190 interannual variations, 111-116 mechanisms, 115-116 momentum flux, 115 and North Atlantic climate, 124-128, 424 North Pacific climate, 21, 347, 472-474, 476-477 Northern Hemisphere, 121 and oceanic circulation, 399 phase lags, 114 pressure and, 112, 116-117, 118, 128 proxy data on, 112, 117-118, 119 and rainfall, 41, 42, 117 and salinity, 294 and sea surface temperature, 124-128, 261, 327, 414, 424 snow cover and, 50-58, 414 Southern Hemisphere, 111-119 storm tracks, 115-116, 118, 119, 137, 473, 478 temperature and, 116, 117-118, 261 transient eddy activity, 115-116 upper-air data, 112-116 Walker circulation, 41, 356, 499 wave trains, 114-115, 116, 118 wind-stress curl, 272, 386 zonally symmetric modes, 113-114, 115-116, 118, 165 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, 399, 400 Atmospheric models/modeling. See also Coupled general-circulation models; General-circulation models applications, 164-168, 601 baroclinic flow, 166 cloud component, 430 constraints on, 426-427 detection of forced climate signals, 175-181 deterministic, 171-172 greenhouse effect, 169-174 natural climate variability, 169-174 one-dimensional, 165 optimal filters, 177-178, 179 paleoclimatic data interpretation, 167-174 primitive-equation, 399, 426-427 sensitivity, 601 tritium fluxes, 277 types, 11, 164-166, 354 U.K. Meteorological Office Unified Model, 250 validation, 166-168, 425-426 zero-dimensional, 164-165 Atmospheric temperature. See Air temperature Australia atmospheric circulation, 113, 116, 118, 119

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Bureau of Meteorology, 116 meteorological network, 88, 113 National Climate Centre, 81 rainfall, 117 temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 85, 88 B Baffin Bay, 130, 296 Baffin Island, 309 Baffin Island Current, 296 Bali, 500 Baltic Sea, 260, 265, 266, 267, 272 Banjul, 35 Barbados, 505 Barents Sea, 131, 254, 258, 287, 306, 325 Barium, in corals, 498 Barnes Ice Cap, 554 Barometric pressure. See Pressure Beaufort gyre, 255, 258, 312 Beaufort Sea, 255, 257, 258, 262, 312, 314 Beaufort shelf, 257 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, 297 Bering Sea, 473 Bermuda, 270, 272, 319, 324, 499 Bermuda High, 510-511 Bermuda rise, 542 Bilma, 35 Biogeochemical processes, 351, 555-571 Biomass burning, 94 Bodö, Norway, 366 Bombay, India mean sea level pressure, 461-463, 464, 465, 468 temperature, 462, 468 Bristlecone pines, 494 C Cadmium, in corals, 498 California coastal heat exchanges, 142-143, 144-145 El Niño, 565, 568, 582 fishery data, 560-561, 564-567 temperatures, 473 wind stress, 473 California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, 564-566 California Current, 130, 303, 457, 561, 564-565, 582 Camp Century, Greenland, 24 Canada cloud cover, 92 meteorological network, 69-71, 73, 88-89 precipitation, 55, 67-69, 71, 74, 75-76, 255, 600 rainfall, 71, 76 runoff, 254 snowfall, 73, 76, 79 streamflows, 76 temperatures, 24, 27, 28, 67, 81, 82, 84, 88-89, 200, 201, 202, 206 winds, 255 Canada basin, 258 Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 255 Canadian Climate Center, 119 Canadian high Arctic, 259 Caño, Costa Rica, 503 Cape Century, 367, 370 Cape Farewell, 295, 306 Cape Hope, 537 Carbon cycle, 8, 105, 557, 559-560 Carbon dioxide, atmospheric air temperature and, 57, 90, 92-93, 96, 97-99, 105-106, 167-168, 178, 183, 207, 493, 533-534, 573-574 carbon-14 values, 279 and climate-change detection, 209 doubling, 18, 56, 57, 90, 92-93, 96, 167-168, 178, 183, 188, 196 and ENSO events, 105 ice-core records, 194-195, 493 interannual variations, 105 periodicities, 97-99, 106 surface temperatures and, 195-196 Carbon-isotope studies, 276, 279, 388, 496 Carbon tetrachloride, 275, 276, 279, 282 Carbonaceous aerosols, 94 Caribbean islands, 498 Caspian Sea, 242 Cave deposits, 491 Cebu Island, 498 Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions (COLA), 46 Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, 131 Chad, Lake, 38, 493, 509-510 Charleston, South Carolina, 272, 312 Charlie-Gibbs fracture zone water, 282-283, 291, 297, 302 Chemical Manufacturers Association, 277 China cloud cover, 92 ice cores, 27-28, 29 meteorological network, 88, 89 rainfall, 45, 48 snowfall, 55, 58 temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 88, 89, 200, 201, 517 Chlorofluorocarbons, tracer studies, 275-276, 277-279, 281-282, 283 -286 Chlorophyll, 473 Chukchi Sea, 312 Circulation. See Atmospheric circulation; Ocean circulation Circumpolar Deep Water, 315, 385 CLIMAP program, 423, 536, 542 Climate Analysis Center, 522 Climate forcing and forcing agents aerosols, 94 anthropogenic, 13, 174, 602 of Arctic fluctuations, 260-261 atmospheric observations, 15-16 climate sensitivity to, 172, 176, 181-186, 192, 208 Milankovitch effect, 172 natural, 13, 15-16, 178-179 ocean response to, 182-184, 534 ozone, 59 Sahel drought, 45 stochastic, 337, 338, 360-362, 382, 398-406 tidal, 106, 524 white-noise, 171, 173, 178, 362 Climate monitoring deep ocean, 324 with corals, 495-505 issues, 15, 235 recommendations, 511, 606 tropical ocean, 495-505 systems, 15 Climate-signal detection carbon dioxide, 105 ''fingerprint" technique, 18 from glaciers, 55-56 greenhouse, 18, 530-531 models for, 178-180 signal-processing approach, 175-181, 201 Tasmanian temperatures and, 530-531 Climate System Modeling Program, 396 Cloud cover albedo, 93, 94 ceiling height, 90 global warming and, 93, 95 modeling, 430, 433 seasonal relationships, 92 sky cover, 90 snow cover and, 52, 54, 56 and temperature, 15-16, 90-92, 93, 95, 189 Cocos, Costa Rica, 503 Cod fisheries, 239, 306-309, 317 Colorado, temperatures, 20, 22 Columbia University, 423 Commonwealth of Independent States. See Soviet Union (former) Comprehensive Aerological Reference Data Set (CARDS), 119 Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), 14, 119, 121-128, 131, 135, 141, 142, 147, 234-35, 242, 247, 248, 252, 308, 321, 322 , 326, 357, 466, 514

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Conductivity-temperature-depth instruments/measurements, 238, 320 Coral records. See also specific regions chemical composition, 492, 496-497 dredging, 491 and ENSO activity, 190, 460, 471, 496, 498, 499-504, 505 environmental reconstructions, 496 growth rings, 118, 491 interpretation, 496-497 isotopic indicators, 497 and ocean circulation, 496, 498 and ocean surface chemistry, 496 paleoceanographic applications, 491, 496, 498-499, 504-505 and runoff, 498 and Southern Hemisphere climate, 118 temperature reconstructions, 496, 497, 498, 505 tracer studies, 279-280, 460, 496-498 tropical climate monitoring with, 495-505 and water-mass transport, 279-280, 498 Coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation systems. See also Coupled general-circulation models; El Niño/Southern Oscillation decadal-scale fluctuations, 128-129 decade-to-century scale variability, 419-431 imbalances in, 99 interannual variability, 420-421 meridional modes, 189 natural variability, 188, 190-191 North Pacific, 472-482 research programs, 423 and thermohaline circulation, 131 winter, 121 Coupled general-circulation models air temperature, 434-436 Antarctic Circumpolar Current response, 401-402 applications, 337 Atlantic Ocean, 420 atmospheric components, 399-400, 404-405, 433, 440, 444, 449 autoregressive analysis, 449-451, 453, 454, 457 boundary-layer processes, 417 cloud cover, 433 component parameterization, 399, 425-429 deep ocean in, 178 density (ocean) component, 399, 436-439 ENSO processes, 415-416, 416-417, 421, 429, 439, 442-457 flux corrections, 439, 440 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), 53, 353, 360, 380-381, 426, 429, 433-440, 529, 535 greenhouse effect, 416 gyre transports, 438-439 Hamburg, 119, 399, 406, 429 history, 415-416 interannual variability, 444 interdecadal variability, 337-338, 416, 432-441 intermediate-time-scale, 426-427 low-frequency variability, 251 Mikolajewicz-Maier-Reimer model, 399-401 mixed-layer processes, 417 North Atlantic, 337-338, 432-441 North Pacific, 416 oceanic components, 399, 433, 444 problems/issues, 251, 414, 416, 417, 419-431 research needs, 417-418 salinity component, 416, 434-436, 441 sea-ice component, 399, 433, 441 sea surface temperature, 417, 434-436, 444-445 solar forcing, 415 surface-flux adjustments, 433 thermohaline circulation, 130, 131, 171, 380-381, 399, 416, 417, 432-441 tropical Pacific Ocean, 1 validation, 425-429, 433 Zebiak-Cane, 443-457 Crosby, Nebraska, 63 Cryosphere. See also Sea ice; Snow cover influence on climate processes, 8 C.S.S. Hudson,297, 298 Cyclones, 52, 90, 91, 311, 313 D Dakar, 35 Danish Meteorological Institute, 254, 258 Dansgaard-Oeschger events, 543 Darwin, sea level pressure, 461, 464, 465, 501 Data archeology, 14 Davis Strait, 296 Denison, Iowa, 58, 61, 62 Denmark cloud cover, 92 temperatures, 87 Denmark Strait, 239, 282-283, 286, 289, 290, 295, 297, 300, 302, 303, 305-317, 537, 538 Denmark Strait Overflow Water, 282-283, 291, 317, 383 Density, ocean modeling, 399 North Atlantic, 436-439 salinity and, 291, 292, 293 thermohaline circulation and, 436-439 Desertification, 46, 48, 89-90 Devon Island Ice Cap, 24, 259, 554 Documenting climate variations. See also Instrumental record pre-instrumental period, 23-28 twentieth century vs. previous centuries, 17-31 Drake Passage, 402, 404, 405, 537 Droughts African, 35 causes, 45, 46, 500 Dust Bowl period, 6, 12, 19, 468, 469 paleolimnological record, 510-511 reversal, 47 Sahel, 12, 15, 19, 21. 37, 41, 42, 44-48, 468, 469 sea surface temperatures and, 41, 45 Dunde Ice Cap, 24, 27-28, 29, 549, 550, 554 Dupree, South Dakota, 61, 63 Dust generation and rainfall, 43, 47, 48 and temperature, 573 volcanic, 184-185 E Earth Observing System (EOS), 14-15 Earth Resources Satellite-1, 508 East Africa, rainfall, 34, 35, 38, 39, 41 East Australian Current. 528 East Greenland Current, 255, 258, 294, 295, 310, 311, 312, 325, 379 , 382 East Icelandic Current, 310 Ecological effects of climate change, 555-567, 572-582 Ecosystem changes, marine. See also Plants anthropogenic sources, 567 California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, 564-566 community structure and, 559-560 competition/predation theory, 558-559 continuous plankton recorder surveys, 563-564 direct measurement of, 562-567 fishery data, 239, 306-309, 318, 317, 473, 492, 560-562, 564-566 nitrogen-flow model, 351-352 perturbations and, 558-559 plankton, 457, 473, 492, 537-541, 556, 557, 563-564, 568-570 as proxy indicators of climate change, 239, 306-309, 317, 473, 491

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Scripps pier data, 566-567 sediment records, 562 trophic structure and, 559-560 Ecuador, rainfall, 466 Ekman, V. W., 318 Ekman drift, 397 Ekman transport, 369-370 El Chichón, 59, 194, 196, 206-207 El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. See also Southern Oscillation; TOGA Program base-state forcings, 443, 445-448, 453, 457, 459, 463-465, 466, 468 , 469, 470 biological responses to, 457 century-scale variability, 416, 465-466, 469, 501-503 chaotic nonlinear dynamics, 449, 468 characteristics, 6-7, 53, 190, 499 and climate change, 197, 453 coral records, 496, 498, 499-504, 505 cycle, 355, 442-471, 499, 502-503, 509 historical records, 459, 460 instrument data, 460, 461-466 intensity, 465-466, 468, 469 interdecadal-scale variability, 416, 456 internal dynamics, 451-452 La Niña events, 473, 478, 481 and lake-level and surface-area changes, 508-509 mechanisms, 443-445, 459-460 models/modeling, 242, 246, 247, 400, 416-417, 418, 426, 429, 439, 442-457 natural "noise" and, 443, 448-451, 453, 456, 457 and North Pacific climate, 473, 478-481 and ocean circulation, 499, 500 origin of, 99 prediction, 2, 181, 235, 448 proxy data, 453-454, 459, 460-461, 471, 496, 498, 550 and rainfall patterns, 39, 41, 48, 442-443, 453, 460, 461, 464, 466 , 468-469, 470, 499, 500, 501-502 regional recurrence, 466, 469 research needs, 471 and sea level changes, 230, 271, 499 and sea level pressure, 459, 460, 461-466, 468, 479-480, 501 seasonal variations, 448 secular variability, 458-471 snow cover and, 53-54, 55 spatial patterns, 209, 500 sunspot activity and, 193, 443, 509 temperature and, 31, 53, 99, 103, 105-106, 115, 167, 190, 202-204, 207, 208, 209, 246, 355-356, 444-448, 450, 454, 459, 460, 461-462, 464-468, 470-471, 478, 499, 500, 502, 515-516 and thermohaline circulation, 470 tracer studies, 500-501 underwater tectonic activity and, 443 volcanic eruptions and, 443, 471 wind forcing, 452, 499 Eliassen-Palm theorems, 341 Energy-balance models, 165, 176, 178, 181-182, 364 England central, temperature changes, 24, 28, 131, 167, 259, 517, 532 fossil records, 534, 535 English Channel, 563 EPOCS program, 421, 423 ERICA program, 423 Erika Dan, 297 Espiritu Santo Island, 498 Eurasia runoff, 262 snow cover, 51-53, 54, 64, 66 temperatures, 19-20, 22, 28, 191 Eurasian Basin Bottom Water, 287 Eurasian Basin Deep Water, 287 Eurasian shelf, 257, 258 Eurocore project, 550 Europe aerosol forcing, 94 cloud cover, 92 cyclones, 52 polar seas, 286-288 precipitation, 191 re-analysis modeling projects, 16 temperatures, 81, 86, 123, 191, 516-517, 520, 522 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 53, 113, 114, 115, 119, 141 Evaporation, 93, 368, 478 F Faeroe Bank Channel, 293, 297 Faeroe Ridge, 304, 538 Faeroe-Shetland Channel, 292, 294, 306, 309, 325, 537 Fennoscandia, temperature reconstructions, 518-519, 522 Fickian relationships, 340, 341, 344 Filcher ice shelf, 262 Finland, temperatures, 85 Fisheries, 239, 306-309, 318, 317, 473, 492, 560-562, 564-566 Floods, African river, 37 Florida, temperatures, 473, 475 Florida Bay, 498 Florida State University, 141 Food webs, 559-560 Fossil record coleoptera assemblages, 534, 535, 545 plankton assemblages, 537-541 Fram Strait, 259, 316, 424 Fylla Bank, 300 G Galapagos archipelago, corals, 498, 500, 501, 503-504, 505 GATE program, 423 General-circulation models. See also Atmospheric models; Coupled general-circulation models; Ocean models assessment of, 56-57 CO2 doubling, 90, 92-93, 96 COLA model, 46 diurnal temperature range, 90, 92-94, 96 GISS, 189-197, 535 greenhouse-warming projections, 18 land masks, 59 mixed-layer ocean, 189 polar amplification of climate perturbations, 165 ramp warming, 174 runoff in, 56 Sahel drought, 45, 46-47 signal-to-noise ratios, 59 soil moisture in, 56 snow feedbacks, 52-54, 56-57, 58, 59 Southern Hemisphere atmospheric, 115-116, 119 sunspot cycles in, 191-193 of surface temperature, 176 three-dimensional, 166 two-dimensional, 165-166 volcanic eruptions in, 184-185 Geochemical Ocean Sections (GEOSECS) program, 290, 291 Geopotential, anomalies, 112, 113-114, 115, 426 German Bight, 567, 568 Glacial-to-interglacial transition, 545, 552-553 Glaciers, 16, 27, 55-56, 191, 259 Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 15, 336 Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) Program, 336, 423 Global Ocean Observing System, 239, 288, 336 Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) data set assessment of, 227-228, 246-247 creation, 242 modeling with, 250, 535-536

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales quality control, 242-246 revisions to, 247-248 Global Telecommunications System (GTS), 68, 81 Global Weather Experiment, 115 Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 54 Grand Banks (Newfoundland), 291, 293, 294, 296 Great Barrier Reef, 498-499 Great Lakes, 358 Great Ocean Conveyor loop, 537 Great Salinity Anomaly Arctic climate cycle and, 121, 254-255, 259 biological effects, 309-310 causes, 191, 239 chronology, 309-310 convection, 288-289, 383 and deep-water formation, 121, 190, 239, 382 defined, 254, 291 ice and salinity anomalies, 255-261, 311-312 Iceland Sea freshening, 383 path, 299-300, 302, 309, 317, 325 periodicity, 313-314, 315, 322 pressures and, 310-311, 316 sea ice and, 131, 239, 255, 311-312 and temperature, 190, 255, 326 and thermohaline circulation, 316 time span, 21, 326 tree-ring reconstructions, 326-327 Great Salt Lake, 358 Greenhouse effect detection of, 169-174, 179, 530-531 ENSO phenomenon and, 453 modeling, 416 paleoclimatic record, 172-174 temperatures, 18, 512, 576-577 tropospheric water vapor and, 15 Greenhouse gases. See also specific gases counteracting factors, 18 models/modeling, 166 and natural climate variability, 188, 194-196, 198 and precipitation, 15 sensitivity of climate to, 208 and soil moisture, 93 and temperature, 92-94, 95 Greenland biological exchanges between Iceland and, 306-309 cod fishery, 306, 317 cyclones, 52 ice cores, 194, 259, 367, 534, 535, 540, 550-553, 600 ice sheet, 272, 363, 492-493, 521, 540 Ice Core Project (GRIP), 550 Ice Sheet Project (GISP), 55, 543, 545, 546, 548, 550 pressures, 310-311, 316 snow cover, 64 temperatures, 24, 27, 28, 59, 600 Greenland High, 311, 313 Greenland Ridge, 311 Greenland-Scotland Ridge, 315, 383 Greenland Sea chlorofluorocarbons, 278 convection, 259-260, 315, 316, 317, 382 deep-water formation, 286, 287, 303, 366, 382 density, 438 freshening, 311 model, 131 overturning, 378 salinity, 255, 258-259, 289, 293, 294, 309, 310, 312, 325, 382 sea ice, 189, 254, 255, 256, 257, 258-259, 260, 261, 262, 312, 314 temperatures, 316 tracer studies, 286-288 warming trend, 130 Greenland Sea Deep Water, 286, 287, 316 Greenland Sea Surface Water, 287 Guinea Coast, rainfall, 34, 38 Gulf of Alaska, 144, 473, 476 California, 503 Chiriquí, 503 Mexico, 137, 139, 403 Panama, 498, 503 Gulf Stream and air temperature, 207 models/modeling, 353-354 North Atlantic winter patterns, 125-128 recirculation, 319 separation structure, 343, 345 temperatures, 122, 123, 125-126, 130, 132, 272 transport changes, 130 Guliya ice caps, 554 H Haline catastrophe theory, 315. See also Polar halocline catastrophe Halocarbons, tracer studies, 275-276, 277-279. See also Carbon tetrachloride; Chlorofluorocarbons Healy, Kansas, 63 Heat exchange. See also Evaporation air-sea, 19, 121, 134-139 data sources, 134-135, 423 modeling, 381, 430 North Atlantic conveyor belt, 533, 534-535, 536-537 Pacific basin, 134-139, 142-144, 478 parameterizations, 134, 135-136, 147 poleward heat transport, 366-367, 371, 375-376, 379 standing-eddy poleward transport, 261 thermohaline circulation and, 19, 366-367, 369-370, 375-376, 384, 391, 394, 427, 528-529 Heat fluxes anomalies, 136-139, 141 Atlantic conveyor, 536-537 atmospheric circulation and, 119, 128, 136-139, 147-148, 165, 440 errors in, 135-136 calculations, 135-136, 142, 219 interior of the earth, 95 latent, 119, 128 monthly variability, 134 Pacific Ocean, 134, 473, 474, 476 sea surface temperature and, 134, 137-139, 141, 143, 147, 219-221 total surface, 141 vertical distribution, 165 Historical documents, climate reconstructions from, 420, 460, 492, 493, 516, 517, 602 Hobart, sea level pressure, 527-528 Holocene epoch, 259, 363, 550-551, 552, 553 Huaynaputina eruption, 549 Human activities, and Sahel drought, 46, 48 Humidity, 90-92 Hurricanes, 367 Hydrological cycle, 8, 74, 261, 362 Hydrological model, 277 Hydrology, surface, snow cover and, 53 I Ice. See Sea ice Ice Age, 315, 317, 362 Ice-albedo feedback, 1, 8, 15, 57, 165 Ice cores. See also Oxygen-isotope records applications, 492 and atmospheric carbon dioxide, 167, 194-195, 493 century-to-millennial-scale climate variability, 366 decade-to-century-scale climate variability, 544-554 electroconductivity, 543, 548, 552, 554 ENSO cycles, 454, 461, 550 as environmental archives. 545-547 interpretation, 547, 551 limitations, 31, 493, 521 nonpolar, 547-550 North Atlantic climate, 367, 492-493, 534 ocean circulation data, 370

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales polar, 530-553 precipitation reconstructions, 55, 259, 550 properties measured in, 548, 551 research literature, 546 seasonal cycles, 31 sensitivity, 521 source of records, 24, 27-28, 259 Southern Hemisphere climate, 118, 119 sunspot cycles, 192 temperature reconstructions, 29, 167, 493, 517, 521, 534, 535, 574-575, 581, 600 time span, 554 Ice sheets, 61, 398, 521 Iceland, 127, 131, 167, 306-309, 312, 314, 517 Iceland low, 311 Iceland-Scotland Overflow, 291, 383 Iceland Sea convection, 315, 316, 383 deep-water formation, 366, 537 overturning, 378 salinity anomalies, 254, 289, 294, 312-313, 314, 325, 379 sea ice, 255, 256, 257, 258-259, 260, 551, 552 temperatures, 314, 551, 552 tritium/krypton ratios, 282 India cloud cover, 92 rainfall, 45, 48, 51-52, 53, 442-443, 453, 468-469 Indian Ocean, 113, 246, 260, 404, 493, 509, 510 Indonesian Low, 499, 500, 501 Indo-Pacific Deep Water, 315 Infrared imagery, 238 Institute of Hydrology, 509 Instrumental record ENSO phenomenon, 460, 461-466 limitations, 421-423 literature review, 461 ocean hydrographic and current structure, 423 operational data, 602-603 representativeness, 2, 6, 600 singular spectrum analysis, 462-463 span, 10, 12, 13-14, 429, 516 temperature, 18-23, 421-423, 516 time-series analysis, 461-462 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, 319 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 56-57, 81, 89, 119, 167-168, 184, 209, 475, 573, 576, 581 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, 318 International Geophysical Year, 237 International Satellite Cloud Cover Project (ISCCP), 14, 15, 95, 96 Intertropical Convergence Zone, 277, 366 Ireland, rainfall, 327 Irminger Current, 296, 306, 308, 309, 316 Irminger Sea, 239, 254, 255, 258, 291, 296, 297, 303, 305-317 Irrigation, 14, 89 J Japan cloud cover, 92 marine observations, 247 meteorological network, 88, 89 temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 85, 88, 89, 95 Japanese Meteorological Institute, 53 K Kalahari region, rainfall, 34, 38, 39, 42 Kansas, snow cover, 61 Kanton Island, 504, 505 Katmai eruption, 185, 207 Kelvin waves, 351, 443 Kenya, rainfall, 35, 40 Khartoum, 35 Klementinum Observatory, 85-87 Koch ice index, 131, 167, 259, 312, 313, 314 Krakatoa eruption, 184, 185 Krypton, 276, 279, 282-283 Ksudach eruption, 207 L Labrador Basin, 302 Labrador Current, 295, 296, 297, 325 Labrador Sea circulation, 291, 295-296, 297, 326 cod-larvae drift, 309 convection, 283, 302, 313, 376, 378-379, 438 deep-water formation, 121, 291, 319, 375, 379, 381, 536-537, 538 density anomalies, 438 meridional geostrophic flow, 376-377 model, 380, 382 overturning, 375, 376-377, 379 pressure, 379 salinity, 293, 294, 295-304, 325 sea-ice extent, 121, 129, 130, 131, 189, 258-259, 314 temperature, 298, 301 and thermohaline circulation, 263, 384, 395 topography, 380 Labrador Sea Water chlorofluorocarbons, 278 convection, 299 density, 298-299 freshening, 383 properties, 296-297 salinity, 239, 291, 297, 299, 300, 302 transports, 262, 302, 303 Lake levels and surface area and decade-to-century variability, 506-511 and drought, 510-511 and ENSO phenomenon, 508-509 evidence for past fluctuations, 508 monitoring recommendations, 511 and ocean-atmosphere interactions, 493 and precipitation, 492 satellite imaging, 508, 509 sea surface temperatures and, 509-510 and surface water balance, 507-508 temperature reconstructions from, 118 and tropical climate, 506-511 Land-surface feedback and rainfall variability, 41-43, 46 Sahelian, 15, 41-43, 45-46 snow and, 53-54 temperature and, 54 Land temperature (surface air). See also Air temperature anomalies, 19-21, 85, 87, 202-203, 356 area-mean indices, 18-21 atmospheric circulation and, 117-118 daily, 81, 82-85 data quality, 81, 87-88 decadal-scale variability, 18-21, 25-27, 209 desertification and, 89-90 ENSO signal and, 202, 203-204 globally averaged, 82, 89, 204 hemispheric means, 513-514 interannual variability, 12, 18-19, 21-23, 26-27, 29, 82-87 irrigation and, 14, 89 mean maximum and minimum, 81, 82-88 measurement, 14, 88-89, 513 monthly means, 82, 84 oxygen isotope record, 24, 27-28 seasonal patterns, 18-19, 25, 27, 28, 29, 82-85, 87, 201, 513-514, 600 spatial patterns, 19-20, 21-23, 29, 82-85, 600 sunspot cycle and, 15 urban heat islands and, 14, 88-89, 95 variability indexes, 27, 31, 124-128 volcanic eruptions and, 195 zonally averaged, 356 Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, 61 Larson ice shelf, 262

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Little Ice Age, 6, 28, 29, 37, 38, 55, 191, 192, 194, 195-196, 198, 272, 420, 466, 492, 524, 527, 530, 532, 547, 552, 574, 581-582 Logan, Mt., 354 M Mackenzie River, 257, 262, 312 Madras, India, pressure, 464 Malawi, Lake, 493, 507, 510 Manganese, in corals, 498 Marshes, 491 Measurement. See also Networks, meteorological accuracies, 238 of chlorofluorocarbons, 275, 276, 278 measurement, 515 of precipitation, 68-70, 76 of salinity, 238 sea level, 237-238, 270 ship-based observations, 14, 119, 121, 134, 234-235 of snow cover, 14, 54, 64 of temperature, 14, 121, 200, 206, 242, 238, 273, 319-320 of water velocity, 238 Medieval Warm Period, 38, 524, 527, 530, 551, 552 Mediterranean area, winter, 420 Mediterranean Outflow, 303 Mediterranean Water, 302, 385 Meteor, 237 Meteorological Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature (MOHSST) Data Set, 222-226, 242, 247, 251, 252 Methane, 195 Methodologies averaging processes, 30, 33, 176-178 empirical-orthogonal-function analysis, 121, 122-124, 132, 136-139, 142, 148-149, 167, 176, 177-178, 180, 181, 190, 200, 201, 203, 260 maximum entropy, 100-104 mean-square-error formalism, 176-177 multi-taper method, 166-167 principal-component analysis, 112-114 rainfall averaging, 33 signal-processing approach, 175-181 singular spectrum analysis, 167, 181, 462-463 temperature averaging, 30, 99-100, 121-124, 176-178 theoretical-orthogonal-function analysis, 178-179, 180, 181 tracer studies, 274-289 tree growth, conversion to temperature, 24-25 validation, 166-168, 602 Microwave radiation snow charting, 14, 62-63 temperature soundings, 200, 202, 204, 206, 238 Milcent, Greenland, 24 Ministerial North Sea Conference, 568 Minnesota, temperatures, 517 Miragoane, Lake, 510 Models/modeling. See also Atmospheric models; Coupled general-circulation models; General-circulation models; Ocean models; Radiative-convective models adjustments to data, 14 applications, 601 averaging artifacts, 59 diurnal temperature range, 90-92 importance, 2, 7 needs, 603 numerical, 374-375, 425-429, 431 re-analysis projects, 16 recommendations, 2, 606-607 sea ice, 140 stochastic, 355-364 target phenomena, 425-426, 429 temperature projections, 575-576 thermodynamic, 138, 165-166, 203, 210 Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, 347 Monitoring. See Climate monitoring; Networks Monsoons African-Asian, 45 Asian, 51-52, 53, 442-443, 453, 496 ENSO and, 442-443, 453, 464, 468-469, 470 snow cover and, 51-52, 53 Southeast Asia, 53 Monthly Climatic Data of the World, 81 Mt. Pinatubo, 59 Mullard Space Science Laboratory, 508, 511 N Nansen casts, 320 Napoleon, North Dakota, 78 Nashville, Tennessee, 312 National Aeronautics and Space Administration GISS model, 227-228, 242-247, 535 snow charts, 14, 64 National Center for Atmospheric Research, 57, 95, 119, 181 National Climatic Data Center, 20, 22 National Meteorological Center, 64, 205, 206, 400, 404-405 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlantic Climate Change Program, 239, 421, 423-425, 431 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, 278-279 data archeology, 14 data digitization, 326 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, 53, 353, 360, 380-381, 426, 429, 433-440, 529 sea surface temperatures, 247-248 snow charts, 14, 58, 61, 63-64 National Oceanographic Data Center, 319 National Science Foundation, data archeology, 14 National Snow and Ice Data Center (U.S. NSIDC), 61 National Weather Service (U.S.) stations, 68 Natural climate variability Arctic cycle and, 259-260 biosphere and, 8 causes, 7, 187-198 century-to-millennial scale, 366-367 climate change distinguished from, 6-7, 18, 19, 167-174, 461, 602 climate sensitivity and, 172 cryosphere and, 8 data needs, 602-603 decade-to-century scale, 398-406, 419-431 decadal-to-interdecadal scale, 367 defined, 1 geographic distribution, 196 inherent, 188-190, 198 issues, 6, 15, 606 land-surface processes and, 8 modeling, 167-168, 171-172, 187-198 ocean's role in, 234-235 passive internal, 171-172 quantifying, 170-172 types of variations, 6 variances, 21, 601 volcanic aerosols and, 188, 193-194 Nebraska, snow cover. 61, 63 Nedre Sodertälje, 266, 268 Nema, 35 Networks, meteorological/climatological automated surface-observing systems, 77, 88 Canadian, 69-71, 73, 88-89 deep-water station, 237, 284 elevation of stations, 72, 76 global acoustic, 273 hydrographic-geochemical, 291 precipitation, 48, 61, 69-70 reference stations, 86 sea-level records, 268, 269 selection for studies, 69-70, 76 snowfall, 69 Southern Hemisphere, 112

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales station sites/siting, 48, 61, 77, 88-89, 119, 268 U.S. Historical Climatology Network, 69-70, 72, 77, 90 WMO/IAEA, 277 New Brunswick, New Jersey, 78-79 New Haven, Connecticut, temperatures, 517 New Orleans, Louisiana, 312 New Zealand, rainfall, 117 Newfoundland sea ice, 255 temperatures, 123, 124, 125, 126, 128, 129, 139, 255 Niger Delta, 37 Niger River, 37 Nile River, 37, 38 Nome, Alaska, 366 NORPAX program, 237 North America. See also Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern; individual countries cyclones, 52 droughts, 6, 12, 19, 52, 82, 85, 468-469, 470 precipitation, 14, 67-71, 73, 74-76, 255 runoff, 254-255, 258-259, 312, 314 snow cover, 52, 54-55, 61, 64, 66 snowfall, 53, 71-74, 76 streamflows, 76 temperatures, 19-20, 22, 24, 25, 28, 54, 81, 88, 134, 209, 473, 477, 516, 517, 522 North Atlantic Central Water, 306 North Atlantic Current, 295, 296, 319 North Atlantic Deep Water circulation, 291, 319, 367, 385, 402-403 density, 301 fluxes, 304 formation, 263, 304, 319, 366, 367, 536-537, 538 glaciations and, 366 interruption of production, 303 millennial-scale changes, 315, 367 modeling, 396 net export, 537 salinity changes, 293, 299 sources, 239, 258, 291 Sverdrup transport, 262 thermohaline circulation and, 384 Younger Dryas cooling event and, 190-191, 538, 540 North Atlantic Drift, 294 North Atlantic Ocean air-sea interactions, 121, 356-357, 359 air temperatures, 123, 125-128, 317, 533, 534, 600, 601 atmospheric circulation influences, 124-128, 424 century-scale variability, 366-367 climate variability, 355-364, 533-534, 571, 600 deep convection, 420 deep-water production, 198, 236, 239, 290, 302, 314-316, 327, 366 density variations, 324, 347, 421, 436-439 dipole pattern, 124-125 fishery data, 571 fresh-water flux, 366, 367, 371, 379-389 Gulf Stream pattern, 125-128, 07 heat transport, 533, 534-535, 536-537 interannual variability, 318-319, 420-421 interdecadal variability, 318-327, 374-380, 421, 424, 432-441 models, 337-338, 355-364, 374-380, 432-441 ocean temperature, 319-323 overturning, 337-338, 358-359, 372, 375, 376, 433-434 plankton surveys, 563-564, 571 poleward heat transport, 356, 379 pressures, 424 proxy records, 537-541 salinity, 21, 121, 131, 190, 191, 207, 239, 254, 290-294, 302, 309-314, 319-326, 359, 367, 434-436, 534-535, 600 sea level pressures, 260, 420 structural changes, 420, 533-543 surface circulation, 537-541 surface temperatures, 122-128, 131, 139, 191, 260, 321-322, 420, 424, 433-436, 510, 533, 581 topography, 380 thermohaline circulation, 261, 337-338, 359-360, 366-383, 375-379, 380-381, 433-434, 534 ventilation, 291 winds, 249-250, 366, 424, 600 winter climate, 120-132, 424 Younger Dryas cooling event, 190-191, 367 North Atlantic Oscillation, 126-127, 130, 311, 312, 314, 317 North Dakota, snow cover, 61 North Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation, 21, 347, 472-474, 475, 476-478 climate shifts, 14, 15, 21, 146-147, 148, 600 decadal-scale variability, 416, 472-482 ecosystem changes, 473 ENSO effects, 473, 478-481 heat exchanges, 142-143, 478, 478 mixed-layer depth, 140, 142-143 model, 347-349, 426 North American teleconnections, 472, 474, 475-477 ocean circulation, 475 pressure anomalies, 137, 139, 473, 474-476 salinity, 302 seasonal considerations, 475-476, 477-478 subarctic gyre, 276 subtropical gyre, 134 Sverdrup transport, 473, 475, 480, 481 temperature, 14, 78, 134, 138, 141, 142-144, 145-146, 206, 246, 426, 473-474, 475-476, 478 Tropical Pacific climate and, 473, 478-480 wind stresses, 472, 474, 475, 476, 482 North Sea, 267, 538-539, 559, 563, 564, 568-569 Northeast Atlantic Deep Water (NEADW), 297, 298, 300, 301, 302 Northern Gyre, 309 Northern Hemisphere aerosol forcings, 94, 208 atmospheric circulation, 121 decadal-scale climate variations, 356 halocarbons, 277, 278, 279, 281, 282 heat transport, 261 instrumental record for, 422-423 krypton concentrations, 279 Little Ice Age, 38 pressure, 479 snow cover, 50, 54, 58, 62, 63, 64-65, 79 snowfall, 73-74 temperatures, 18-21, 73-74, 79, 82, 200-202, 204-207, 208, 209, 356, 513-514, 515, 518-519, 520, 535 Northern Oscillation, 459 Northwest Atlantic Bottom Water (NWABW), 297, 298, 301, 302 Norwegian Atlantic Current, 309 Norwegian Sea, 198, 232, 286-288, 294, 297, 310, 315, 366, 378, 379, 438, 538, 539 Norwegian Sea Deep Water, 286, 287 Norwegian Sea Surface Water, 287 Nouakchott, 35 Novaya Zemlya, 554

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales O Ocean circulation. See also Coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation system; Gulf Stream; Thermohaline circulation; and specific currents, gyres, and other features abrupt changes in, 534-536 advection, 134, 143, 145-146, 147, 220, 371, 403-404 advectively dominated boundary currents, 283 and biological exchanges, 306-309 boundary conditions, 367-368, 381 buoyancy, 348 convection, 304 core method, 237, 238 current velocities, 286 deep water, 2, 121, 198, 237, 238, 289, 290-294, 304 diffusion processes, 141, 143, 146, 313, 368-370, 383 equatorial downwelling, 368 horizontal structure, 403-404 intermediate-water component, 430 internal-wave breaking, 348, 350 isopycnals, 283 material-property mixing, 351 meridional structure, 261, 402-403 mesoscale eddies, 337, 341-344 mixed-layer depth, 140, 142-143, 145-146, 150, 182, 189, 196 overturning, 261, 289, 348, 368, 370, 371 paleoclimatic records, 196 planetary boundary-layer turbulence, 344-348, 353 salinity and, 534-535 shear, 348 sunspot activity and, 503 Sverdrup transport, 294, 473, 475, 480, 481 topographical form stress, 350-351 tracer studies, 274-289, 340, 384-385, 496 upwelling changes, 209, 496, 498, 499, 500, 503 ventilation, 281, 291 vertical mixing/entrainment, 128, 140, 142-143, 144, 145, 147, 148, 220, 303, 304, 348-350, 498 VHR radiometer imaging, 232 water-mass age indicators, 280-281, 283, 285 western boundary currents, 370-371 wind-driven, 341-344 Ocean models/modeling. See also Coupled general-circulation models Barents-Greenland Sea, 131 biogeochemical processes, 351 Boolean delay equation, 255 boundary conditions, 337, 367-368, 381, 385-386, 391, 392, 393 boundary wave guide, 351 Bryan-Cox OGCM, 374, 385 century time scales, 370 cloudiness, 141 constraints, 380, 426 current velocities, 389-390 data sources, 134-135, 140-141 decadal-to-interdecadal variability, 370-373 diffusive time-scale variability, 368-370 ecosystem, 351-352 forcing agents, 15, 140, 141, 148 fresh-water fluxes, 368, 369, 370, 373, 380 Hasselmann's model, 336, 357-358, 361, 363, 364, 430 heat-flux parameterization, 135-136, 141, 381, 391 ICE-3G, 235 interior vertical mixing, 348-350 intermediate-water formation, 382-383 internal ocean variability, 365-383 marine-weather-data adjustments, 141-142 material property mixing, 351 meridional overturning, 340 mesoscale eddies, 341-344, 380 mixed-layer depth, 140, 142-143, 145-146, 150 Modular Ocean Model, 385-386 North Atlantic circulation, 366, 373, 374-380 North Pacific basin, 15, 134-135, 140-147 numerical models, 374-375, 384 Oberhuber isopycnic ocean, 133-135, 140-147 overturning variability, 370-372 planetary boundary layers, 344-348, 353 planetary geostrophic model, 370 principles, 340-341 runoff component, 380, 406 salinity, 140, 141, 149, 358, 374, 386, 391, 392-393 sectoral, 427, 428 sea-ice parameterization, 351 semi-Lagrangian approaches, 354 spin-up period, 140-141, 368 stochastic forcing, 398-406 Stommel's model, 324, 337, 356-357, 358-359, 360, 363 stratification of layers, 363 sub-grid-scale parameterizations, 339-354 temperatures, 141, 374, 386-388, 390-391 thermally dominated regimes, 360-362 thermocline maintenance, 426 thermohaline circulation, 121, 355-364, 366, 367-374, 385-397, 399, 427, 433, 601 topography component, 350-351, 374, 380, 382, 430 turbulent kinetic energy, 140, 141 two-hemisphere sector, 385-397 types and applications, 336-338 vertical diffusivity, 340, 346-347, 389-390 wind stresses, 140, 141, 374, 380, 386, 399 wind/temperature relationships, 124 zonally symmetric forcing, 382 Ocean Polar Front, 319, 322 Ocean temperature. See also Sea surface temperature annual mean, 319-323 atmospheric circulation and, 119 averaging, 320-321 deep-water, 322-324, 327 interdecadal variability, 239, 318-323 Labrador Sea, 300-301 North Atlantic Ocean, 319-324 and plankton abundance, 563, 565, 566 and salinity, 285, 294, 319-324, 402 speed-of-sound measurements of, 238, 273 tides and, 106 time series, 237 upper ocean, 319-322 Ocean Weather Ship/Station Bravo, 297, 299, 313, 325, 326 Charlie, 319-323, 325, 326, 327 India, 433, 434 Papa, 347 S, 319, 323, 324 Oceanographic data. See also Ocean temperature; Salinity; Sea surface temperature; Winds bathythermographs, 237, 319-320, 321 history of observations, 237-238 hydrographic, 237, 319-320 instrument technology, 238-239 record, 12-13 surface marine, 241-252 Oregon Graduate Center, 278-279 Oshkosh, Nebraska, 61, 63 Oxygen-isotope records. 24, 27-28, 29, 259, 367, 420, 496, 500-503, 517, 521, 534, 535, 540. 545, 550, 574

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Ozone, 59 Ozone depletion, 165 P Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, 137, 139, 146, 200-201, 205, 416, 472, 473, 474, 475-477, 480 Pacific Ocean. See also North Pacific Ocean; Tropical Pacific Ocean air-sea heat exchange, 134-139 atmospheric-circulation anomalies, 115, 118, 140-141 circulation, 327, 404 heat balances, 202, 529 mixed-layer depth, 140 model, 140-147 salinity, 140, 402 seasonal-to-interannual fluctuations, 133-150 surface temperatures, 137-139, 203, 246, 260 surface variability, 134 turbulent kinetic energy, 140 wind stresses, 140-141 Pakistan, temperatures, 87 Paleoclimatic record. See also Proxy records and ENSO phenomenon, 453-454, 460-461 and greenhouse effect, 172-174 interpretation, 23, 24-25, 172-174, 196 models applied to, 166, 167 needs, 602 usefulness, 19 Paleo-ENSO International Symposium, 460 Panama Basin, 503 Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, 579 Past Global Changes project (PAGES), 425, 427 Patagonia, Argentina, temperatures, 24, 518-519 Pátzcuaro, Lake, 493, 510 Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, 265, 267 Peru ice cores, 24, 27-28, 29 rainfall, 466, 469 Phase lags, 105, 114, 174, 202-203, 248, 258-259, 300, 312, 314, 367 Philippines, 498 Pic du Midi de Bigorre Observatory, 87, 92 Pilot balloon data, 48 Pinatubo, Mt., 184-185, 194, 206-207 Planetary Upper-air Frontal Zone, 51 Planetary waves, 475, 477 Plankton, 457, 473, 492, 537-541, 556, 557, 563-566, 568-570 Plants effects of short-scale climate fluctuations, 577 microclimatic requirements, 576-577 spatial variations in microclimate, 577-578 Point Barrow, Alaska, 276 Polar Deep Water, 316 Polar Front, 385, 537-538 Polar gyres, 481 Polar halocline catastrophe, 361, 368, 370, 380 Polar Water, 312 Pollen assemblages, climate change reconstructions, 545 POLYMODE program, 423 Prague, Czech Republic, 85 Precipitation. See also Rainfall; Snowfall area averaging, 71, 72-75, 76 century-scale changes, 69, 74-75, 76 data processing, 70-71 decade-scale changes, 74 gauges, 68, 71, 77 global, 195 greenhouse warming and, 18 instrument record, 10 interannual variability, 12, 69, 73-74, 75, 76 land, 195 mean annual, 69 measurement, 68-71, 74-76, 77 networks, 69-70, 76 North America, 14, 67-71, 74-76 proxy records, 521, 551 quality of data, 14 regional shifts or jumps, 600 sea surface temperature and, 191, 255, 261 snow cover and, 50 soil moisture and, 414 streamflow and, 74-75 topography and, 68 volcanic eruptions and, 195 Pressure anomalies, 255, 310-311 and atmospheric circulation, 116, 117, 118 ENSO phenomenon and, 459, 460, 462-466, 479-480 and heat fluxes, 137 North Atlantic, 420, 424 North Pacific, 473, 474-476 and salinity, 310-311, 316 sea level, 112, 116, 124-127, 137, 202, 248, 255, 260, 308, 367, 420, 424, 459, 460, 462-466, 473, 474-476, 479-480, 527-528, 532 sea surface temperature and, 124-128, 191 and storm tracks, 137 surface, 116, 117, 118 and Tasmanian climate, 527-528, 432 teleconnections, 260, 261 and winds, 119, 124-127, 248, 308 zonally asymmetric fields, 117 Projections of climate change, 18, 74 Proxy records. See also Ice cores; Paleoclimatic record; Tree-ring records atmospheric, 492-493 defined, 7 ENSO phenomenon, 453-454, 459, 460-461, 471 future of, 494 history of, 490-491 integration of information from, 31 interpretation, 420, 490 limitations, 31, 420, 425, 453, 493-494 model validation with, 427, 429, 493 needs, 602 North Atlantic circulation, 537-541 oceanic, 491-492, 537-541 for rainfall, 37, 43 recommendations, 607 span, 18 temperature reconstructions from, 7, 18, 23-27, 31, 117-118 types and applications, 420, 490 Puget Sound, 473 Puerto Chicama, Peru, 500-501 Puerto Rico, 499 Punta Pitt, Isla San Cristobal, 500-501 Q Quelccaya Ice Cap, 24, 27-28, 29, 31, 454, 461, 547, 549-550, 554 R Radar altimeters, 238 Radiation balance, modeling, 165 Radiative-convective models, 92, 165, 347, 348 Radiative transfer heat fluxes and, 136 ice-albedo feedback and, 1, 165 Rainfall. See also Precipitation Africa, 32-43, 45, 46, 48 Aleutian Low and, 476 anomalies, 33-36, 38-39, 44, 45 atmospheric circulation and, 41, 42, 117 averaging methods, 33 causes of variability, 41-43 century-scale fluctuations, 37-38 decadal-scale variations, 32, 33-38, 43 ENSO phenomenon and, 39, 41, 48, 442-443, 453, 460, 461, 464, 466, 468-469, 499, 500, 501-502

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales gauges, 71, 76 interannual variability, 34, 38-41, 117 land-surface feedback and, 41-43 latitude and, 33 North Pacific climate changes and, 473, 476 periodicities, 39 proxy data, 37, 43, 499, 500, 501 research needs, 43 sea surface temperature and, 39, 41, 45, 46, 48, 327, 509 seasonal fluctuations, 39-41, 117 teleconnections, 35-37, 41, 42, 43 Recommendations, 2-3, 16, 606-607 Reforestation, 46 Research needs African rainfall fluctuations, 43 for coupled modeling, 417-418, 429 data collection, 603 ENSO phenomenon, 471 identification of key variables, 606 modeling, 606-607 proxy data, 607 snow cover, 65-66 temperature, 95 Reykjanes Peninsula, 307-308 Rift Valley, 35 Rio Alerce, Argentina, temperatures, 24 River flows, temperature reconstructions from, 118 Rockall Channel, 325, 326 Ronne ice shelf, 262 Ross Sea, 384 Rossby waves, 53, 91, 116, 443 Runoff and Arctic climate cycle, 129, 254-255, 257, 258-259, 262, 312, 314, 315 coral records, 498 and deep-water production, 315, 367 modeling, 380 from snow melt, 55 and salinity, 257, 406 sea surface temperature and, 255, 261 Russian Academy of Sciences, 61 Rutgers University, 61, 64 S Sahel drought, 12, 15, 19, 21, 37, 41, 44-48, 468, 469, 470 land-surface feedback, 15, 41-43, 45-46 limnological records, 509-510 rainfall variability, 32, 33, 35-37, 38-39, 41, 44, 45, 48, 260, 367, 510, 600 topography, 45 Salinity, oceanic. See also Great Salinity Anomaly annual mean, 319-320 anomalies, 21, 121, 131, 190, 191, 207, 239, 254, 255-261, 295-304, 309-314, 370, 377-378, 397, 403 atmospheric circulation and, 294 boundary conditions on, 368 deep-ocean, 290-294, 322-324 and deep-water formation, 289 density and, 291, 292, 293 empirical-orthogonal-function analysis, 400, 402, 403 interdecadal variability, 239, 261 Labrador Sea, 239, 295-304 model characterization, 140-141, 149, 358, 363, 368, 416 North Atlantic, 319-324, 322, 434-436, 534-535 and ocean circulation, 534-535 periodicity, 313-314 and plankton abundance, 563, 565, 566 pressure and, 310-311 runoff and, 257, 406 sea ice and, 131, 255-261, 311-312, 441 sea surface, 294, 325, 368, 377-378, 379-380, 434-436 spatial distribution, 404 and temperature, 207, 285, 294, 314, 402 and thermohaline circulation, 207-208, 357-361, 362, 370, 434-436 time series, 299-300 San Francisco, 266, 267, 268, 269 Santa Barbara basin, 561, 562 Sargasso Sea, 351, 352 Satellite observations altimetry, 270, 508, 509 lake levels and surface area, 508, 509 needs, 603 of sea-level changes, 270 snow cover, 14, 54, 61-65 temperatures, 200, 238, 247-248, 539 usefulness of, 14 Scandinavia, temperatures, 24, 25 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), 62, 64 Scatterometers, 238 Scotland-Iceland Ridge, 283 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 561, 566-567 Sea-air feedbacks, 134, 362 Sea ice and air temperatures, 189, 251, 551 anomalies, 254, 255, 257, 258 Arctic climate cycle and, 129, 254-255, 424 boundary areas, 244-245 data sources, 243, 247, 251, 252, 254, 258 decadal-scale fluctuations, 13, 189, 254 drift speeds, 258, 314 extent, 121, 130, 231, 254, 255-256, 258-259, 367 formation, 289 GISST data set, 227-228, 242-247 great ice and salinity anomalies (GISAs), 255-261, 311-312 index, 131, 167 interannual variability, 254 models/modeling, 140, 351, 399, 426, 433 and North Atlantic Oscillation, 130 North Pacific climate and, 473 runoff and, 257-259 and salinity, 131, 255-261, 262, 311-312, 441 and sea level, 272 and sea surface temperature, 129, 223, 224, 226, 231, 244-245, 248, 260 snow cover on, 61, 62 and surface albedo, 260 wind and, 258, 262 Sea level acceleration of change, 267-270 and ENSO signal, 230, 271 low-frequency variations, 267, 270, 272 models, 265 post-glacial rebound. 265 pressure, 112, 116, 124-127, 137, 202, 248, 255, 308, 367, 420, 424, 459, 460, 462-466, 527-528 quasi-biennial oscillation, 229-230, 270-271, 426 records, 237, 265-266 sea ice and, 272 seasonal variation, 272 vertical crust movements and, 265 and wind-stress curl. 272 Sea surface temperature (SST) . See also Temperature; Ocean temperature absolute values, 243 and African rainfall patterns, 39, 41, 45, 46, 48 air-sea heat exchanges, 134-139, 147 anomalies, 21, 45, 124-128, 131, 137-140, 142-147, 202-203, 221-226, 241, 242, 243, 251, 260, 306, 314, 367, 377-378, 424, 439, 444-448, 450, 454, 454, 455, 459, 461-462, 464-467, 501 Arctic, 31 and atmospheric circulation, 124- 128, 261, 327, 414, 424, 478

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales averaging techniques, 30, 227-228, 245-246, 466 biennial-scale, 122-125 cloud cover and, 189 convection and, 262 coral reconstructions, 496, 497, 498, 499, 500, 501, 502 decadal-scale variations, 118, 122-125, 128, 189, 327 dipole patterns, 124-125, 127 empirical orthogonal function analysis, 122-124, 132, 136-139, 142, 148-149, 260, 402, 445-446, 469, 474 ENSO phenomenon and, 202, 444-448, 450, 454, 455, 459, 461-462, 464-467, 479-480, 499, 500 and entrainment, 220 and equatorial upwelling, 209 forcing agents, 14, 142-144 and fresh-water fluxes, 399 GISST data set, 227-228, 242-247 global mean, 241 and Gulf Stream, 125-126 and heat-flux anomalies, 134, 137-139, 141, 145, 147, 148, 219-221 and horizontal advection, 220 Indian Ocean, 509 interannual fluctuations, 121, 210, 261, 322 Labrador Sea, 296 and lake-level and surface-area changes, 509 Levitus data sets, 366, 368, 379-380 mapping, 238 MOHSST data set, 222-226, 242, 247, 251 modeling, 144-146, 251, 478 North Atlantic Ocean, 122-124, 131, 139, 191, 321-322, 326, 420, 422, 424, 433-436, 439, 510, 539, 581 North Pacific Ocean, 14, 141, 142-144, 426, 473-474, 476-477 phase lags, 367 and precipitation, 191, 255, 261, 327, 510 and pressure, 124-128, 191 records, 14, 119, 121, 134, 242, 247, 422, 454, 455, 496 and runoff, 255, 261 satellite-based, 247-248 sea ice and, 129, 223, 224, 226, 244-245, 247, 260 Southern Hemisphere, 118, 510 tropical Pacific, 29, 448, 496 and upper-air temperatures, 209 verification of, 239 wind and, 121, 124-125, 128, 145, 307 winter, 221 Seasons and seasonal cycles. See also Summer; Winter aerosol forcing, 94 atmospheric variability, 112-113 cloud cover, 92 ENSO and, 448 heat-flux anomalies, 136-139 monthly means converted to, 121-122 North Pacific climate variations, 475-476, 477-478 precipitation trends, 79 rainfall fluctuations, 39-41 sea level, 272 snow cover, 54, 59, 62, 63, 64, 66 temperature trends, 79, 82, 84-85, 92, 94, 136-139, 146-147, 221, 436, 516, 520 wind-stress curl, 272 Seasonal Ice Zone Experiment (SIZEX), 231 Seawater density changes, 300-301 speed-of-sound measurements in, 238, 273 UNESCO equations of state, 399 Sediments/sedimentation anthropogenic influences on fish populations, 562 bioturbation, 538 deep-sea, 314-315, 381, 425, 491, 536, 538, 574 ice-volume changes, 574 lakes, 491, 510, 534 ocean-circulation reconstructions, 535 rates, 491-492 and thermohaline circulation, 314-315 time scales for, 235 varve chronologies, 43, 492, 493 Severnaya Zemlya Ice Cap, 554 Siberia runoff, 255, 257, 262 temperatures, 200, 201, 206 Siberian River, 255 Signal detection. See Climate-signal detection Snow cover albedo and, 50, 53, 54, 57 annual variability, 61, 64, 65 and atmospheric circulation, 50-58, 414 century time scales, 54-57 and climate change, 54, 60 and cloud cover, 52, 54, 56 and cyclones, 52 decadal variations, 49, 54-57, 60-66 depth, 61, 62, 65 distribution, 50, 52, 62 duration, 61, 64, 65 ENSO link, 53-54 feedback effects, 15, 52 historic in situ data, 61, 65 on ice, 61, 64 interannual variations, 51 marginal snow zone, 55 measurement problems, 14, 54, 61, 78 microwave charting, 62-63, 64 modeling studies, 52-54, 56-57, 58 NASA microwave files, 14, 61-62, 64 and natural climate variability, 49-59 NOAA weekly charts, 14, 58, 61, 63-64, 65, 79 observational studies, 50-52, 54-56, 61-65 and precipitation forecasts, 50 and rainfall, 51-52, 53 and runoff, 55 satellite data. 14, 54, 61-65 and seasonal cycles, 54, 59, 62, 63, 64, 66 short-wave charting, 61, 62 and soil moisture, 53, 54 span of records, 55 and temperature, 52, 53, 54-55, 57, 79, 90-92 and upper-air geopotential, 53 water equivalent, 61, 62, 68 Snow gauges, 54, 69, 71 Snow melt/melting, 50, 55 Snow products, 61, 63-64, 65-66 Snowfall area averaging, 71-72, 73, 76 data processing, 70-71 decade-scale changes, 73-74, 77-78 and ENSO events, 55 interannual, 72, 76, 78-79 measurement, 68, 69, 71-73, 78 rates, 53 scale corrections, 71-73 temperature and, 73-74, 78-79 water equivalent, 69, 71 Soil moisture greenhouse gases and, 93 and precipitation, 43, 414 snow cover and, 54, 57 and temperature, 53, 57, 89-90, 93 Solar radiation and temperature, 90-92 top of the atmosphere, 90-92 Sondankylä, Finland, 86, 87 Soudano-Guinean Zone, rainfall, 34, 38 Sound-fixing and ranging (SOFAR) channel, 273 South Africa meteorological network, 88

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales pressure, 116 rainfall, 39, 42, 117 temperatures, 82, 84, 85, 88 Weather Bureau, 116 South America rainfall, 117 temperatures, 27 South Atlantic region, temperature anomalies, 21, 260 South Pacific anticyclone high, 116-117 models, 145 South Pacific Convergence Zone, 119, 457 South Pole, 55 Southern California Bight, 567 Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, 13, 111-119 climate records, 423, 523 halocarbons, 277 krypton concentrations, 279 low-frequency variability, 251 meteorological network, 201 rainfall, 35, 42 sea ice, 251, 260 snow, 50, 59, 62 storm tracks, 115-116, 118, 119 temperatures, 81, 82, 201, 202, 204, 206, 207, 208, 513-514, 518-519, 523-532 Southern Ocean, 243, 246, 247, 248, 261, 315, 386 Southern Oscillation. See also El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and atmospheric-circulation anomalies, 117, 118 characteristics, 402-403, 459, 499, 503, 504 decadal variability, 117 Index (SOI), 117, 202, 461, 478, 479, 501-502, 509, 515-516, 574 South Pacific anticyclones, 117 and temperature, 573-574 Walker circulation and, 356 Soviet Union (former) cloud cover, 92 meteorological network, 88, 89 North Atlantic data, 320, 322 snow-cover data, 61 snowfall, 55, 58 temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89 Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), 62, 65 St. Petersburg, 517 Stockholm, Sweden, 266, 268, 269, 517 Storm tracks, 115-116, 118, 119, 137, 327, 473, 478 Straits of Indonesia, 537 Stratosphere temperature, 206-207 ozone depletion, 165 UV radiation absorption, 193 Streamflows, 74-75, 76, 473, 476 Strontium, in corals, 498 Subarctic gyre, 276, 324, 358, 359, 361, 362, 363 Sub-Arctic Intermediate Water, 385 Subpolar gyre, 121, 129, 131, 239, 254, 260, 299-300, 306, 309, 310, 313, 314, 325, 370, 371 Subsurface floats, 238 Subtropical Convergence Zone, 385 Subtropical gyre, 129, 131, 134, 239, 272, 322, 324, 370, 371, 383, 481-542 Subtropical High, 128, 528 Sudan meteorological network, 88 temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 87, 88 Sulawesi, 504 Sulfate aerosols fallout rate, 94 and greenhouse warming, 18 and precipitation, 15 residence times, 94 and temperature, 94-95, 208 Sulfur emissions, 94 Summer. See also Seasons and seasonal cycles continent-ocean contrasts, 112, 114-115 precipitation, 12, 46 temperatures, 25, 27, 28, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520 wave trains, 114 Sunspot cycles and carbon dioxide, 97-99 decadal-scale variations, 98 and ENSO phenomenon, 193, 443, 509 Gleisberg, 192, 529, 532 Hale, 192 Maunder Minimum, 192, 196, 529-530 Medieval Solar Maximum, 529, 530 and natural climate variability, 188, 191-193, 197, 198 and ocean circulation, 503 periodicities, 192 proxy records, 192, 491, 529 response detection, 176, 178-179 Spörer Minimum, 529-530 and temperatures, 15, 97-99, 178-179, 192-193, 529-530, 532, 600 and ultraviolet radiation, 193, 194, 197 Surface albedo. See also Snow cover and rainfall, 46, 47 sea ice and, 260 snow and, 50, 53, 54, 57, 62 and temperatures, 51-52, 93 Surface drifters, 238 Surface temperature. See Air temperature; Land temperature; Sea surface temperature; specific regions and countries Svalbard Ice Cap, 554 Swiss Alps, 55 Switzerland, temperatures, 517, 535 Synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 238 T Tahiti, mean sea level pressure, 461-462, 464, 465, 466, 479 Tanzania, rainfall, 40 Tarawa coral records, 500, 501, 502, 503, 504 Tasman Sea, 527 Tasmania, Australia links to climate system of, 527-530 temperature reconstructions, 24, 25, 167, 518-519, 523-532, 600 Temperatures, general or combined. See also Air temperature; Land surface temperature; Surface air temperature; Sea surface temperature adjustments to data, 14 global mean, 13, 14, 18, 170-174, 184, 210, 520, 572-582 greenhouse warming and, 18, 572-582 instrument record, 10, 199-200 interannual variability measures, 21 natural variability in, 187 periodicity, 600 phase lags, 202-203 quality of data, 81 reconstructions from proxy data, 7, 18, 23-27, 31, 117-118 sources of data, 81, 199-200 subsurface, 79, 95 volcanic eruptions and, 184 Thermal-ionization mass spectrometry, 498, 505 Thermohaline circulation advection, 392, 393 Arctic fresh-water forcing and topography, 379-380 Atlantic, 384-397, 399 atmospheric forcing. 239, 294, 399 boundary conditions, 129, 367-368, 385, 391, 392, 393, 427 buoyancy flux and, 366 century-scale variability, 370 and climate change, 190, 315-316, 366 collapse of, 369-370 convection and, 315 -316, 392-393 cryosphere and, 8, 239 currents, 389

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales Deacon Cell, 388 decade-to-century-scale variability, 373-374, 380, 396 decadal-to-interdecadal variability, 130, 131, 167, 190, 262, 316, 370-373, 375-376, 424, 432-441 and deep-water production, 121, 393 density (ocean) and, 361, 366, 436-439 diffusion processes, 368-370 ENSO phenomenon and, 470-471 Great Salinity Anomaly and, 316 and heat exchanges, 19, 366-367, 369-370, 375-376, 384, 391, 394, 427, 528-529 hemispheric variability, 391-395 intensity, 434-436, 438 intermediate-water formation, 393 measurement of, 385 mechanisms in, 263, 371-372, 376-379, 384 models/modeling, 2, 130, 131, 171, 172, 316, 336-338, 356-359, 366, 367-374, 385-397, 416, 417, 420, 427, 432-441, 528-529, 601 North Atlantic, 130, 360, 366, 375-379, 380-381, 432-441, 534 North Atlantic Deep Water and, 314-316 oscillations, 2, 129, 174, 260-261, 357, 391-395 overturning, 261, 366, 367, 369, 370, 393 response time, 417 salinity and, 207-208, 357-361, 362, 366, 370, 391, 394, 434-436, 438 sinking regions, 366, 384, 388, 391, 395, 433-434, 437-438 stable regimes, 262, 315, 367, 386-391, 399, 420 subtropical gyre sensitivity to, 542 symmetric restoring temperatures, 386-388, 389 and temperature, 327, 356-359, 361, 362, 366, 386-388, 390-391, 434-436, 438, 439 trans-equatorial, 121 velocities, 387, 390, 393, 395 Thermometers, 88, 321 Timbuktu, 35, 37 Titicaca, Lake, 461, 508, 509 TOGA Program, 239, 303, 336, 421, 423 TOPEX/POSEIDON data, 270 Toronto, Ontario, Canada, temperatures, 516, 517, 521 Tracer studies. See also Transient tracers cod/haddock eggs and larvae, 306-309 coral reefs, 460, 496-595 ENSO phenomenon, 460 geochemical data, 602 mesoscale eddies and, 341-342 model validation, 426 Transpolar Drift Stream, 255, 258, 312 Trans-Polar Index, 117 Transient tracers Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current, 283-285 boundary conditions, 276-280 carbon-14, 238, 276, 279-280, 381 data sets, 288 European polar seas, 286-287 evaluation of data, 283 halocarbons, 238, 275-276, 277-279, 281-282, 283, 381 krypton-85, 276, 279, 282-283 meridional overturning and, 340 properties, 238-239, 275-276 ratios, 280-283 time-series examples, 283-287 tritium/3He, 238, 275, 276-277, 280-281, 282-283 Transient Tracers in the Ocean/North Atlantic Study (TTO/NAS), 291, 294, 297 Tree-ring records. See also specific locations alerce trees (Fitzroya cupressoides), 494 applications, 43, 492 ENSO cycle, 460-461 Great Salinity Anomaly, 326-327 growth-trend adjustments, 532 history of use, 490-491 Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii C.J. Quinn), 524 interpretation of, 23-25, 491, 519 precipitation reconstructions from, 521 sensitivity of, 521 singular spectrum analysis, 525-527 spectral analyses, 525, 532 sunspot cycles, 192, 491 temperature reconstructions, 25-27, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520, 523-532 time span, 31, 551-552 Tritium, 275, 276-277, 282-283, 286, 287, 290 Tropical climates. See also individual oceans and regions coral records, 495-505 lake levels and surface areas and, 506-511 monitoring, 495-505 Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program, 239, 303, 336, 421, 423 Tropical Pacific Ocean climate shifts, 21 coral records of changes in, 496-505 interannual variability, 1, 502 models, 140 and North Pacific climate, 478-480 and sea level variations, 270-271 temperature, 145, 246, 247, 448 Tropical storms/disturbances African rainfall and, 47 tracks, 115-116, 118, 119, 137, 473, 478 U.S. East Coast, 12 Troposphere aerosols, 94-95, 194, 196 temperature, 27-28 water vapor, 15, 28 Turkana, Lake, 508 U Uganda, rainfall, 40 Ultraviolet radiation, 191, 193, 197 United Kingdom Meteorological Office, 90, 248, 250, 356, 314. See also England United States (contiguous). See also North America; individual states aerosol forcing, 94 Clean Air Act, 94 climate fluctuations, 12 cloud cover, 92 drought, 19 eastern seaboard, 139, 293 greenhouse warming, 18 Historical Climatology Network, 69-70, 72, 77, 85, 88, 90 precipitation, 12, 13, 55, 67-69, 73-75, 76, 600 rainfall, 76 re-analysis modeling projects, 16 snow cover, 58, 61, 63, 65 snowfall, 73, 76 storm patterns, 12, 52, 311, 317, 367 sulfur emissions, 94 temperatures, 12, 13, 19-20, 22, 24, 29, 67, 82, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88-89, 91, 123, 128, 191, 314 United States/People's Republic of China bilateral agreement, 81 University College London, 508, 511 University of Colorado, 61 East Anglia, 475, 528 Wisconsin, 322 Urals, temperatures, 24, 518-519, 520, 522 Urban heat islands, 14, 61, 88-89 Urvina Bay, coral records, 503-504

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Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales U.S. Air Force, snow-depth product, 61 U.S. Coast Guard, 319, 322 U.S. Department of Energy data archeology, 14 temperature data, 201, 202, 204, 205 U.S. Geological Survey Satellite Image Atlas of the World, 16 U.S. Ice Patrol Standard Section, 306 US/USSR Bi-Lateral Environmental Data Exchange Agreement, 61, 81 V Victoria, British Columbia, 366 Victoria, Lake, levels, 35, 493, 509 Volcanic eruptions and aerosol forcing, 188, 193-194, 195, 196, 197, 198 atmospheric response to dust, 184-186 and ENSO activity, 443, 471 ice-core data, 198, 549, 551 modeling, 184-185 and precipitation, 195, 524 and temperature, 59, 171, 183, 185-186, 188, 194, 195, 206-207, 208, 209, 524 Vostok ice cores, 167, 493, 575 W Wajir, Kenya, 35 Walker, Gilbert, 459 Wallywash, Great Pond, Jamaica, 510 Water quality, 567 Water-vapor feedback, 93, 505 Wave trains regional meridional, 113, 114-115, 118 zonal, 113, 114-115, 118 Weddell Sea, 262, 283, 384, 521 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin charts, 61, 71 West Greenland Banks, 306, 317 West Greenland Current, 295-296, 306, 309 West Greenland shelf, 300 West Wind Drift, 528 Western Boundary Undercurrent, 288, 291 Winnipeg, Manitoba, 366 Winds. See also Atmospheric circulation anomalies, 112-113, 249 balanced frictional flow, 248 calculation, 119 curl, 475 easterlies, 127 ENSO forcing, 452, 500 equatorial zonal, 191 geostrophic, 248 and heat fluxes, 136, 190, 440 marine, 119, 248-250 North Atlantic, 249-250 North Pacific, 474, 475, 476 northerlies, 310, 313, 474, 476 pressure and, 119, 124, 125-126, 248 and sea ice, 258, 262 speeds, 249-250 sunspot cycles and, 191 and temperature, 90-92, 121, 124-125, 127, 128, 140-141, 142, 147-148, 307, 600 trade, 124, 202, 499, 503 upper-level, 41, 112-113 westerlies, 116-117, 124, 127, 508, 571 zonal, 124-125, 386 Winter atmospheric circulation, 112, 113, 114, 118 cyclones, 311 Little Ice Age, 420 North Atlantic Ocean climate, 120-132, 291, 311 precipitation, 12 pressure, 310-311, 312 rainfall, 117 temperatures, 12, 28, 221, 312 World Climate Research Program (WCRP), 55, 319, 336 World Glacier Monitoring Service, 16, 55-56 World Meteorological Organization, 81, 277 World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), 239, 296, 297, 336 World Water Balance studies, 68 World Weather Records, 81 Wüst, Georg, 237, 238 Y Younger Dryas cooling event, 190-191, 367, 538, 540, 552, 553, 575

Representative terms from entire chapter:

snow cover