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The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
A Potential Solution for the Disposal of Transuranic Waste
Committee on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
Board on Radioactive Waste Management
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1996
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Support for this study on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, under Grant No. DE-FC01-94EW54069. All opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Energy.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 96-68944
International Standard Book Number 0-309-05491-5
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) http://www.nap.edu
Cover: Federal regulations require calculations to show that the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), if certified as a transuranic radioactive waste repository, is expected to isolate waste from the environment for the next ten millennia. Current plans call for the erection on site of permanent markers containing signs and symbols, intended as decipherable messages to warn future generations of the dangers to nature and to human health of digging into a filled and sealed repository below the surface.
Coincidentally, ten millennia is also the approximate age of the earliest known pottery from Asia. One millennium ago, a now-extinct Indian tribe, the Mimbres, lived in Arizona and New Mexico. The cover shows a Mimbres pottery design, perhaps representing the delicate balance of nature, using a man and two animals in a mobile arrangement. The Mimbres design is used by permission from Art of a Vanished Race: The Mimbres Classic Black-On-White, by Victor M. Giammattei and Nanci Greer Reichert, Published by Dillon Tyler, Publishers, P.O. Box 645, Calistoga, CA 94515.
The background photograph, provided by the Department of Energy Carlsbad Area Office, shows a close-up of a sample of Permian age salt crystals taken from the WIPP excavations. The permanence of the geologic salt formation (over 200 million years old) is an attractive feature of the WIPP site and illustrates the exceptional time scales of concern in nuclear repository design, time scales that extend well beyond the typical duration of most engineering projects, languages, and civilizations.
Copyright 1996 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT
CHARLES FAIRHURST, Chair,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
HOWARD ADLER,
Oxyrase, Incorporated, Knoxville, Tennessee
JOHN O. BLOMEKE,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired), Tennessee
SUE B. CLARK,
Washington State University, Pullman
FRED ERNSBERGER,
University of Florida, Gainesville
RODNEY C. EWING,
University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
B. JOHN GARRICK,
PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California
LEONARD F. KONIKOW,
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia
KONRAD B. KRAUSKOPF,
Stanford University (emeritus), California
DELLA ROY,
Pennsylvania State University (emerita), University Park
DAVID A. WAITE,
CH2M Hill, Bellevue, Washington
CHRIS G. WHIPPLE,
ICF Kaiser Engineers, Oakland, California
THOMAS A. ZORDAN,
Zordan Associates, Murrysville, Pennsylvania
Staff
INA B. ALTERMAN, Senior Staff Officer
ROBERT S. ANDREWS, Senior Staff Officer and Study Director (through December 1995)
THOMAS KIESS, Staff Officer and Study Director (beginning December 1995)
REBECCA BURKA, Senior Project Assistant
DENNIS DUPREE, Senior Project Assistant
ANGELA R. TAYLOR, Project Assistant
ERIKA L. WILLIAMS, Project Assistant
DONNA J. AHRENS, Consultant
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BOARD ON RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH, Chair,
ENVIRON Corporation, Emeryville, California
B. JOHN GARRICK, Vice-Chair,
PLG, Incorporated, Newport Beach, California
JOHN F. AHEARNE,
Sigma Xi and Duke University, The Scientific Research Society, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
JEAN M. BAHR,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
SOL BURSTEIN,
Wisconsin Electric Power (retired), Milwaukee
ANDREW P. CAPUTO,
Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.
MELVIN W. CARTER,
Georgia Institute of Technology (emeritus), Atlanta
PAUL P. CRAIG,
University of California (emeritus), Davis
MARY R. ENGLISH,
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
ROBERT D. HATCHER, JR.,
University of Tennessee/Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville
DARLEANE C. HOFFMAN,
Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California
JAMES JOHNSON,
Howard University, Washington, D.C.
CHARLES McCOMBIE,
National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste, Wettingen, Switzerland
H. ROBERT MEYER,
Keystone Scientific, Inc., Fort Collins, Colorado
PRISCILLA P. NELSON,
University of Texas, Austin
D. KIRK NORDSTROM,
U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, Colorado
D. WARNER NORTH,
Decision Focus, Incorporated, Mountain View, California
PAUL SLOVIC,
Decision Research, Eugene, Oregon
BENJAMIN L. SMITH, Independent Consultant,
Columbia, Tennessee
Staff
KEVIN D. CROWLEY, Director
ROBERT S. ANDREWS, Senior Staff Officer
KARYANIL T. THOMAS, Senior Staff Officer
THOMAS KIESS, Staff Officer
SUSAN B. MOCKLER, Research Associate
LISA J. CLENDENING, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN L. ALLEN, Senior Project Assistant
REBECCA BURKA, Senior Project Assistant
DENNIS L. DUPREE, Senior Project Assistant
PATRICIA A. JONES, Project Assistant
ANGELA R. TAYLOR, Project Assistant
ERIKA L. WILLIAMS, Project Assistant
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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chairman),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JAMES P. BRUCE,
Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario
WILLIAM L. FISHER,
University of Texas, Austin
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
PERRY L. MCCARTY,
Stanford University, California
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
S. GEORGE PHILANDER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
ELLEN SILBERGELD,
University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore
STEVEN M. STANLEY,
The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
Staff
STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director
MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Reports Officer
JAMES MALLORY, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, PC Analyst & Project Assistant
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering, research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Acknowledgments
The committee has spent countless hours over the more than ten years since its last full report on WIPP, in discussions with staff from DOE and its contractors, EPA, officials of the State of New Mexico, the Environmental Evaluation Group, community leaders from Carlsbad, and concerned citizens. In open meetings held several times a year for more than a decade, the committee has heard a wide diversity of views on WIPP.
Genuine concerns have been expressed without rancor or polemics, but with conviction and unfailing courtesy. This is a tribute to the community involved in and concerned about WIPP. For the committee, and particularly the chair, it has been a privilege to have participated in these discussions. We sincerely appreciate all of the information and insights gained and hope that our report will be of value in arriving at an appropriate decision on the proposal to establish a TRU waste site at WIPP.
The committee thanks the many anonymous reviewers who painstakingly read and criticized our report, which has benefitted considerably from their efforts.
Finally, we wish to express our appreciation to staff colleagues of the National Research Council's Board on Radioactive Waste Management, both past and present, who have done much to assist the committee in its task. Particular thanks are due to Tom Kiess, Angela Taylor, and Erika Williams, without whose efforts the report would not have been completed.
Charles Fairhurst, Chair
October 1996
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
General Conclusions and Recommendations
3
Summary
6
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
7
Transuranic Waste: What it is, Where it Comes From, Where it Must Go
7
Geologic Disposal of Radioactive Waste in Salt
8
History of WIPP
10
The WIPP Underground Facility Today
10
The Disposal Plan
10
Regulation and Licensing of WIPP
10
Framework for the Report
12
CHAPTER 2
REGULATORY COMPLIANCE AND REPOSITORY PERFORMANCE
15
EPA Standards for Radioactive Waste
15
Performance Assessment
18
Radionuclide Release Scenarios
24
Discussion of PA Modeling Efforts
27
Discussion of Repository Performance
29
General Quality of WIPP Performance Assessment Activities
32
Other Long-Term Radiological Compliance Issues
32
Conclusions
35
CHAPTER 3
SALADO HYDROGEOLOGY, GAS PRESSURE, AND ROOM CLOSURE
37
Salado Hydrogeology
37
Gas Pressure
39
Room Closure
41
The Combined Effects of Brine Inflow, Gas Generation and Room Closure
44
Summary and Conclusions
45
CHAPTER 4
ENGINEERING TO IMPROVE PREDICTED REPOSITORY PERFORMANCE
47
Repository Design and Excavation Alternatives
47
Sealing of Shafts and Boreholes
50
Sealing of Rooms and Panels
57
Conclusions
57
CHAPTER 5
ACTINIDE SOURCE TERM
58
Actinide Source Term Model
59
Schedule
62
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Summary and Discussion
62
Conclusion and Recommendations
63
CHAPTER 6
NON-SALADO HYDROLOGY
65
Regional Hydrogeologic Modeling
65
Flow and Transport Modeling
66
WIPP 1992 PA Model Analysis
68
Discussion and Summary of Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations
73
Perspective Based on International Repository Siting Efforts
75
CHAPTER 7
PERSPECTIVES
77
Integrity of the Waste Isolation System
77
Human Intrusion
78
Role of Performance Assessment
78
The Nature and Frequency of Human Intrusion
79
Retrospective
80
REFERENCES
82
APPENDIXES
A.NATURAL SETTING AND RESOURCES
95
Geologic Framework
95
Hydrologic Setting of WIPP
99
Natural Resources
103
B.THE COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION: THE RISK CURVE
110
C.BRINE INFLOW TO EXCAVATIONS IN THE SALADO
116
Permeability of WIPP Salado Anhydrite and Interbeds
116
One-Dimensional Flow in Anhydrite interbeds in Impermeable Salt
117
Radial Flow into Excavations in Permeable Salt
118
Bredehoeft Calculation
119
Shaft Seals—Approximate Check on PA Flow Calculations
120
D.CREEP BEHAVIOR OF WIPP SALT
123
E.ACTINIDE SOURCE TERM
129
Experimental Work on Actinide Solubilities
129
Experiments on Colloids
132
Retardation Experiments
132
F.REGIONAL HYDROGEOLOGY
134
Approaches to Studying Regional Aquifer Systems
134
Ground-Water Models
134
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G.AN OVERVIEW OF WIPP COMPLIANCE ISSUES
143
Deep Geologic Disposal
143
Project Administration and Regulation
143
Certification Criteria
143
Certification of WIPP
144
Chemistry, Biology, and Geotechnology
145
The Actinide Source Term
146
Hydrology Above the Salado Formation
146
Repository Design Using Compartmentation
147
Summary, Conclusions, and Perspective
148
H.BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS
149
I.GLOSSARY
152
J.LIST OF ACRONYMS AND SYMBOLS
158
K.BIBLIOGRAPHY
159
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