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tically integrated to coal, oil, and natural gas and have economic ties to the extraction of these fossil resources. Yet industries constantly transform themselves. For example, witness the Dow/Cargill joint venture to commercialize polylactic acid polymers (biomaterials) derived from corn starch. This venture represents the beginning of an important transformation in feedstocks and processing technologies for the chemical industry. In most cases, however, there is a lack of industrial experience in large-scale processing of complex plant materials. Volatility in petroleum prices continues to be a barrier to the development of these materials. If the government chooses to accelerate development of a biobased industry, well-established petroleum firms may need some incentive to invest in riskier precommercialization stages of development of biobased products.

There may be a compelling national interest to make a transition to a biobased industry. For example, policymakers may want to accelerate use of renewable biomass to mitigate impacts on the U.S. economy from a long-term disruption in world oil supplies or perhaps to reduce impacts on the environment created by possible global warming. However, the degree of public-sector involvement to encourage the growth of a biobased products industry will be a public policy decision. Federal support of research could be a way to make biobased products more competitive. This report makes some recommendations to facilitate research and development (R&D) and commercialization of biobased industrial products.

A Vision for the Future

The committee has described circumstances that it believes will accelerate the introduction of more sustainable approaches to the production of industrial chemicals, liquid fuels, and materials. In this vision a much larger competitively priced biobased products industry will eventually replace much of the petrochemicals industry. The committee proposes intermediate (2020) and long-term (end of century) targets for a future biobased industry. These are summarized below and in Table 5-1:

• by the year 2020, provide at least 25 percent of 1994 levels of organic carbon-based industrial feedstock chemicals and 10 percent of liquid fuels from a biobased products industry;

• eventually satisfy over 90 percent of U.S. organic chemical consumption and up to 50 percent of liquid fuel needs with biobased products; and

• form the basis for U.S. leadership of the global transition to biobased products with accompanying environmental benefits.

Tables 5-2, 5-3, and 5-4 outline the current status of biobased products