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The Effects A her of a Major Nuclear Exchange Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL. ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1985

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE., NW WASHINGTON, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine,were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. This project was supported by contract DNA001-83-C-0137 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Defense Nuclear Agency, Department of Defense. The Defense Nuclear Agency neither confirms nor denies data cited in this report. Library of Congress Catalog Number 84-62739 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03528-7 Printed in the United States of America

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N ATI O N AL RES E ARC H COUNCI L 2101 CONSTITUTION AVENUE WASHINGTON, D. C. 20418 OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN In early 1983, _ the Department of Defense asked us to assess information on the possible atmospheric effects of nuclear war. We formed a com- mittee of specialists from relevant fields to conduct the assessment. This is the committee's final report. Nuclear war would have catastrophic effects beyond those that might degrade the earth's atmosphere; thus our committee examined only one part of a large and complex issue. And even within this part the committee was asked to focus only on effects on the atmosphere and not to carry the analysis to the next logical step: the consequences of changes in the atmosphere for life on earth. This is an issue that should and will be addressed. The committee has admirably performed a task that proved even more difficult than we had anticipated. We had appreciated the difficulty of examining the scientific aspects of a subject that--for understand- able reasons--provokes strong emotional reactions. An equally formidable task, however, was that of coping with profound gaps in existing knowledge. The unfortunate but unavoidable fact is that, even though we are 40 years into the nuclear age, much of the basic information needed to assess the likelihood and extent of global atmospheric consequences of a nuclear exchange simply does not exist. As a result, the committee has been unable to provide the simple, unqualified finding that we all might wish to have in order to assure that any nation's decisions about nuclear forces are not made in ignorance of their true consequences. Under these conditions the committee determined it could best serve by summarizing existing knowledge, by drawing the partial conclusions {with necessary qualifications) that are supported by data, by clearly describing the nature and extent of uncertainties, and by indicating where those uncertainties might be reduced through further research. Because additional knowledge might well alter our current under- standing, the report can only be viewed as an interim statement. Nevertheless, we believe it can help world's governments advance the time question of surpassing international importance. the scientific community and the when we can adequately answer a Frank Press Chairman 1HE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL IS THE PRINCIPAL OPERATING AGENCY OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING TO SERVE GOVERNMENT AND OlHER ORGANI~:1 IONS .

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Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions GEORGE F. CARRIER, Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Chairman WILLIAM J. MORAN, Vice Admiral USN (Ret.), Los Altos, California; Vice Chairman JOHN W. BIRKS, Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT W. DECKER, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California DOUGLAS M. EARDLEY, Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, California JAMES P. FRIEND, Department of Chemistry, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania ERIC M. JONES, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JONATHAN I. KATZ, Department of Physics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. CONWAY B. LEOVY, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Graduate Program in Geophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington CONRAD L. LONGMIRE, Mission Research Corporation, Santa Barbara, California MICHAEL B. McELROY, Harvard Center for Earth and Planetary Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts WILLIAM PRESS, Department of Astronomy, Harvard College Observatory, Cambridge, Massachusetts JACK P. RUINA, Department of Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts EUGENE M. SHOEMAKER, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, Arizona LEVERING SMITH, Vice Admiral USN (Ret.), San Diego, California 0. BRIAN TOON, Ames Research Center, NASA, Moffett Field, California RICHARD P. TURCO, R&D Associates, Marina del Rey, California Staff LAWRENCE E. McCRAY PEGGY POWERS v

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Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Chairman THOMAS BARROW, Standard Oil Company ELKAN R. BLOUT, Harvard Medical School WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University HERMAN CHERNOFF, Massachusetts Institute of Technology CHARLES L. DRAKE, Dartmouth College MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOSEPH L. FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia JAMES C. FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh WILLIAM A. FOWLER, California Institute of Technology GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Science Applications, Inc. EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography MARY L. GOOD, UOP, Inc. THOMAS F. MALONE, Saint Joseph College CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey WALTER H. MUNK, University of California, San Diego GEORGE E. PAKE, Xerox Research Center ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado HOWARD E. SIMMONS, JR., E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc. ISADORE M. SINGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN D. SPENGLER, Harvard School of Public Health HATTEN S. YODER, JR., Carnegie Institution of Washington RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Associate Executive Director V1

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Acknowledgments The committee expresses its appreciation for the contributions of the following individuals: Thomas Ackerman, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marcia Baker, University of Washington Robert Cess, State University of New York, Stony Brook Robert Charlson, University of Washington Anthony Clarke, University of Washington Peter Connell, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Curt Covey, National Center for Atmospheric Research John De Ris, Factory Mutual Corporation Robert Dickinson, National Center for Atmospheric Research Frank Fendell, TRW, Inc. Paul Guthals, Los Alamos National Laboratory Robert Haberle, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lee Hunt, National Research Council Jerry Mahlman, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Robert Malone, Los Alamos National Laboratory Michael MacCracken, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Elizabeth Panos, National Research Council Joyce Penner, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory James Pollack, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Roseanne Price, National Research Council S.J. Pyne, University of Iowa Lawrence Radke, University of Washington V. Ramanathan, National Center for Atmospheric Research Stephen Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research Donald Shapero, National Research Council Renee St. Pierre, National Research Council Starley Thompson, National Center for Atmospheric Research Stephen Warren, University of Washington Barbara Yoon, R&D Associates . . V11

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Contents 1 Summary and Conclusions 2 Recommendations for Research 3 4 Dust 5 Fires 6 Chemistry The Baseline Nuclear Exchange 10 13 17 36 107 7 Atmospheric Effects and Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 8 Use of Climatic Effects of VoIcanic Eruptions and Extraterrestrial Impacts on the Earth as Analogs Appendix: Evolution of Knowledge About Long-Term Nuclear Effects . . Index 1X 174 185 189

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