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Tracking the Flows of Energy and Materials INTRODUCTION Consumption becomes environmentally important because of the manner or extent to which it transforms materials and energy. Therefore, to understand the environmental impacts of consumption, one must un- derstand anthropogenic changes in the flows of materials and energy. This chapter presents four brief reports, taken from presentations at the workshop, that track flows of energy and environmentally important materials or propose methods for tracking them. These reports suggest what can be learned by following materials and energy flows. Their bibliographies point to other related work. Iddo Wernick analyzes aggregate and per-dollar materials flows within the United States, using weight and volume as indicators. A1- though these units are not always good proxies for environmental im- pacts, the analysis provides a first approximation to importance by show- ing which human-environment interactions are the largest; by identifying trends, it highlights the materials that are likely to be increasing or de- creasing as environmental problems. For instance, many materials used in bulk, such as steel and wood, are becoming less important aspects of economic activity, and special-purpose materials used in lesser quantity, such as special alloys, plastics, and coated papers, are becoming more important (see Larson et al., 1986~. The new materials have quite different environmental impacts from one another. The use of paper, despite the information revolution, has continued to increase in absolute terms and 26

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS 27 has held steady on a per-gross-national-product (GNP) basis throughout this century. This sort of analysis, combined with information on the per- unit environmental impacts of the production and consumption of par- ticular materials, can suggest which kinds of consumption are likely to remain, or to become, environmentally important. David Allen's report focuses on wastes, including air pollutants as well as solid wastes. Allen identifies the sources of these wastes by type of industry. He also illustrates, with an analysis of the inputs and wastes associated with producing a kilogram of polyethylene, how the environ- mental impacts of particular materials or energy transformations can be examined. Data like these can be combined with production data and estimates of the toxicity of each type of emission to yield comparative quantitative assessments of the environmental significance of each prod- uct of the chemical industry or some other segment of the economy. This sort of analysis can clarify the relative environmental importance of dif- ferent kinds of economic activity. David Allen's approach is similar to one that has been used in energy analysis since the 1970s. Applying the approach to materials is more difficult, however, because materials differ qualitatively to the extent that it is not always meaningful to convert them to a common unit such as joules or kilograms. In addition, unlike energy, which dissipates as waste heat, many materials need to be tracked even after they are "used," be- cause they continue to be transported through the environment and may reappear in environmentally significant ways. Lee Schipper's report disaggregates one class of environmentally im- portant consumption. Schipper looks in detail at travel, a significant and growing factor in fossil energy use and associated climatic change and pollution. He disaggregates changes over time in carbon emissions from motor vehicles in wealthy countries into those attributable to levels of activity (passenger-kilometers traveled), energy intensity (fuel per pas- senger-kilometer), and the fuel-use characteristics of the vehicles, and then to finer levels of detail. For instance, he examines activity levels as a function of such variables as numbers of vehicles, load factors, and num- ber and average distance of trips. He finds that while fuel consumption for travel was leveling off in the United States, largely because of de- creases in fuel used per vehicle-kilometer between 1973 and 1991 (but not thereafter), this trend was not observed in other Organization for Eco- nomic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries: in all the countries studied, levels of activity have continued to increase since the 1970s with no sign of saturation in any country. The higher level of automobile travel in the United States is attributable to a greater number of trips of about the same average length as in other OECD countries. Schipper also examines such factors as sex and age of drivers. This sort of

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28 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION analysis is useful for separating technological influences on environmen- tally significant consumption from behavioral ones; projecting the likely environmental impacts of travel as a function of changes in incomes, age distribution, household composition, labor force participation, and other variables; and estimating the effects of policies to reduce emissions, such as fuel taxes, on different kinds of drivers. Faye Duchin explores the possibility of developing a classification system for households, akin to the Standard Industrial Classification sys- tem, as a way to facilitate disaggregating consumption by household type and by activities within these types, and to make possible systematic study of issues of consumption and "lifestyle" such as those raised in Schipper's work. Noting that various market research firms have devel- oped household classifications for short-term marketing purposes, Duchin suggests that a similar form of classification might be useful for detailed analysis of household consumption, including environmentally signifi- cant consumption. She notes that developing classification schemes for different countries may help illuminate the kinds of broad changes in household consumption patterns occurring in developing countries. All four reports illustrate the potential value of tracking and disag- gregating environmentally significant human activities. Such efforts ad- vance understanding by clarifying which actions and which actors are most responsible for particular environmental changes and which make little difference. The results of such classifications could suggest where the greatest potential lies for reducing the environmental impact of hu- man activity. In addition, by identifying some of the immediate purposes for which people undertake activities that cause environmental damage (e.g., travel to work), this sort of research can identify sources of resis- tance to policy interventions and thus alert policy makers to challenges facing their efforts to reduce the environmental impacts of consumption. REFERENCE Larson, E.D., M.H. Ross, and R.H. Williams 1986 Beyond the era of materials. Scientific American 254 Qune):3441.

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS CONSUMING MATERIALS: THE AMERICAN WAY Iddo K. Wernick 29 I focus in this paper on characterizing consumption by providing an account of all the physical materials consumed in the United States and a framework for assessing the relative scales and environmental relevance of that consumption. Assessing the materials consumption of a nation requires viewing (a) the total volume of materials consumed, (b) the com- position of that total, (c) how these change with time, (d) forces driving those changes, (e) foreign trade in raw materials, and (f) the prospects for large-scale materials recovery. Together, these allow us to view materials consumption comprehensively and place particular instances and anec- dotes in proper perspective. Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s many have studied energy consumption at the national level, examining consumption trends over time, the mix of fuels used, and alternatives for the future (United Na- tions, 1978; World Energy Conference, 1974~. Such studies provide the analytic tools that have documented the slowing growth of primary en- ergy consumption and its decoupling from U.S. economic development (Nakicenovic, 1996~. Although the analogy is imperfect, materials would similarly benefit from this approach but have not yet enjoyed the same scrutiny for several reasons. The same fear of imminent shortages that focused attention on energy never gathered momentum with respect to materials, as the proven reserve base for most material resources has actually grown in the last decades (U.S. Congress, 1952; Goeller and Weinberg, 1976; World Resources Institute, 1994~. Although exhausting materials resources may, in fact, not be a priority concern with the no- table exception of high-grade energy fuels the environmental degrada- tion resulting from extracting, processing, consuming, and disposing materials is. tJ tat' 1 tat' The heterogeneity of materials consumed in modern society presents a further barrier to comprehensive analysis. Materials possess numerous and diverse properties that make them attractive to consumers and deter- mine their environmental impacts, thus weakening generalizations. While the energy from firewood, coal, or gas is readily reduced to common units such as joules or British thermal units, the utility of the gravel, ore, and fertilizer materials we consume cannot be. Although less than an ideal measuring stick, mass will serve here as HA longer version of this paper appeared in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1996, 53:111-122. Printed with permission of the journal.

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30 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION the common currency for describing materials. Using mass alone ob- scures environmentally important features of materials use, such as the growing volume of plastics in U.S. waste streams, the high toxicity of relatively trivial masses of industrial effluent, and the acreage disturbed in extracting both renewable and nonrenewable resources. Nonetheless, kilograms and tons provide objective measures for grasping the sheer quantities of bulk materials mobilized to serve society and the relative sizes of different materials classes. Moreover, most of the available data on materials are either given directly in mass or can be converted to it. CURRENT NATIONAL MATERIALS CONSUMPTION AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS In 1990, the average American consumed over 50 kg of material per day, excluding water (Wernick and Ausubel, 1995~. Consumer goods compose a small fraction of this total; the materials required for their production and distribution, as well as the auxiliary materials used in their manufacture, contribute a far greater amount. To gain some per- spective on the ratio of direct to indirect consumption, the mass of mu- nicipal waste that Americans directly dispose of each day accounts for less than 5 percent of the daily quantity (Franklin Associates, Ltd., 1992~. Figure 3-1 shows the total as a sum of the six major classes of materials. Almost 90 percent of total inputs go to providing energy, structures, and food. Inputs of water, if included, would raise the total many fold. Min- ing wastes (particularly for coal) are huge and represent another conse- quence of consumption mostly hidden from the public eye. The daily 50- kg quantity may be common to highly industrialized societies. In 1990, Japanese consumption also summed to a little over 50 kg per capita per day (Gotoh, 1994~. The mix of materials consumed changes over time. For example, per capita U.S. lumber consumption has declined markedly in this century. At the turn of the century wood provided building materials for homes and factories, ties and rolling stock for railroads, utility poles for tele- phone and power lines, and fuel. Today a large fraction of harvested wood (approximately 40 percent including residues) goes to paper mills (Ince, 1994~. Although drastic reductions in consumption are more the exception than the rule, wood is not unique in that both the level of consumption and how it is used in the economy have changed. A more aggregated account of consumption reveals wholesale changes in the amount of physical structure materials Americans con- sume. Figure 3-2 shows that in total tonnage per capita, reported con- sumution appears to rise over long cycles of economic growth and then to fluctuate during times of economic upheaval.

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS Inputs 21.5 Energy l 21.1 Construction Minerals' ~ 2.7 Industrial Minerals _ 1.2 Metals ~ 2.9 Forestry /' 6.9 Agriculture 6.9 Imports / 56.3 1,425 Water (consumptive use) 31 ~_ Outputs 2.7 Recycled - ` 19.0 Air Emissions - - 20.6 Domestic Stock _ 6.1 Wastes 1.6 Dissipation 4.5 Exports >loo Extractive Wastes (mostly waste rock) FIGURE 3-1 Daily per capita materials flow by mass (all values in kg): United States about 1990. Materials are here classed as energy fuels (i.e., coal, oil, gas), construction minerals, industrial minerals, metals, forestry products, and agricul- tural products. Data from Wernick and Ausubel (1995~. Reprinted with permis- sion. 12 10 8 Metric Tons 6 4 2 o Oft,,' ,\~ 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 FIGURE 3-2 Annual per capita consumption of physical structure materials: United States 1900-1991. Physical structure materials are here defined as con- struction minerals, industrial minerals, forestry products. Data from Rogich et al. (1993~; U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975~. Reprinted with permission.

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32 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION Are industrialized societies constrained to follow this path indefi- nitely? Do improvements in the standard of living necessarily translate to greater material consumption? Intensity of use (IOU) measures address this question directly. IOU measures show the evolution of individual materials used in the national economy by indexing primary, as well as finished, materials to gross domestic product (Malenbaum, 1978~. Begin- ning with studies done in the late 1970s, researchers noted several com- mon patterns in the course of consumption of a material in the economy (Williams et al., 1987~. Initially, the consumption of a particular material exceeds general economic growth. Growing markets and newly discov- ered uses for the material stimulate further growth. This rapid growth eventually saturates, and consumption of that material then tracks or lags the rest of the economy. Figure 3-3 illustrates this phenomenon at different stages for a variety of materials in the United States. One clear conclusion from the figure is that more dollars in the economy do not always mean more tons. Heavy materials such as steel, copper, lead, and lumber, all materials used for infrastructure, became less critical to economic growth over the course of this century. Paper seems to track economic activity in lockstep, conserv 100 10 kg/$ GNP 1 Plastic Lu WE Pb,Cu,P I, ~ ~ Aluminum I= if_ ~ A~ I/ \~ Phosphates Potash ~_.~ ~ ;=~~- Paper Paper St Plastic Al ^ \.t 0.1 Potash, 1 900 S ~Lumber Steel Lead Copper 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 FIGURE 3-3 Materials intensity of use: United States 1900-1990. Annual con- sumption data are divided by GNP in constant 1987 dollars and normalized to unity in the year 1940. Data for plastics are production data. NOTE: St: Steel; Lu: Lumber. Data from U.S. Bureau of the Census (1993-1994 and 1975~; Modern Plastics 136~5~:71-72~1959~; plastics data from personal communication with Joel Broyhill, Statistics Department, Society of the Plastics Industry, Washington, D.C., August 20, 1993. Reprinted with permission.

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS 33 ing its role through the national shift from manufacturing to information and services. The rapid growth of materials used as fertilizers shows the "green" revolution that has raised agricultural yields. Finally, low-den- sity materials, such as aluminum, have outpaced economic activity in the second half of the twentieth century. This is spectacularly true with re- spect to plastics, a class of materials that, in addition to being lightweight, possess a host of properties that make them the material of choice for the manufacturer and the consumer alike. The types of material flows can be separated into the categories of elephants and fleas. Some of the bulk materials we have seen may be called the elephants. These high-volume material flows may cause little environmental impact per unit mass but can have profound long-range environmental consequences. Pumping oil, quarrying stone, and har- vesting feed each contributes to chronic global environmental problems, affecting atmospheric composition and land use. The fleas, materials generated in small quantities often as by-products of large-scale commer- cial production, can have more acute harmful effects. Consider that total annual U.S. dioxin releases are under 500 kg (Thomas and Spiro, 1994~. Despite the small quantity released, environmental concerns about the effects of dioxin continue to demand the attention of both government and industry. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's inclusive definition of Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) production-related wastes, toxic chemicals totaled about 17 million metric tons in 1992, 0.3 percent of all materials consumption (INFORM, 1995~. Concerns over this relatively small mass fraction dominate much of the current public environmental debate. Foreign trade in raw materials accounts for about 10 percent of U.S. materials flows. Table 3-1 shows that a few bulk commodities dominate trade. On a mass basis, agricultural products, coal, and chemicals domi- nate U.S. exports, whereas oil, oil products, and metals and ores dominate imports. The plentiful carbon that enters America, of course, exits as CO2 emissions. Agricultural trade surpluses require domestic land, chemi- cals, and minerals but feed many elsewhere. For many minerals the United States shall continue to rely on foreign sources. FORCES AFFECTING MATERIALS CONSUMPTION The simple arithmetic of a U.S. population of 400 million or more in 2100 will draw more materials into the economy (United Nations, 1992~. Efficiency improvements might be able to maintain a constant total for the collective whole, in theory. However, in the United States more people means more individual consumers acting on their own. The average number of residents per American occupied housing unit halved since

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34 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION TABLE 3-1 Major Materials Flows in U.S. Foreign Trade ExportsImportsNet Flow (million(millionper Capita Categorymetric tons)metric tons)(kg) Agricultural products135.514.9(482.6) Coal96.02.4(374.5) Minerals47.854.225.6 Metals and ores27.076.4197.8 Chemical and allied products41.314.4(107.6) Petroleum products34.196.9251.3 Timber products16.418.48.0 Paper and board6.211.922.8 Oil (crude)5.6307.41207.6 Natural gas1.731.0117.2 Automobilesa1.25.918.8 TOTAL412.7633.8884.4 Air transport1.51.70.8 Waterborne transport406.9524.9472.0 Trucks Other industrial and consumer products? 151,000 (units) 766,000 (units) N.A. ? NOTE: N.A. indicates not applicable. Numbers in parentheses indicate net exports. abased on an estimated average vehicle mass of 1.5 metric tons. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1975~. the beginning of the century (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1975, 1993, 1994~. Besides the materials needed for additional structures, appliances and furniture enter these dwellings irrespective of the number of inhabitants. Thus the relationship of number of persons to materials consumed is not simply proportional, reflecting settlement patterns as well. This same relation holds true for energy consumption: the same number of people living in a larger number of residences consume more (Schipper, 1996~. While American behavior drives expansion, historical development and technical innovations offer hope for contraction. The United States is a postindustrial country. The service sector continues to claim more of national economic activity, and the physical infrastructure of the country is largely in place. For instance, during the period 1970-1992, the surfaced road network in the United States expanded at only a third of the rate for the century (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1975, 1993, 1994~. Because of the

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 35 -1 O 1960 1965 1970 1975 -1 1980 1985 1990 FIGURE 3-4 Volume ratio of pipe manufactured from plastic over all other mate- rials. Data from Hurdelbrink (1989~. Repinted with permission. massive quantities consumed constructing roads and highways, slowing the rate is consequential to national consumption of materials like steel, asphalt, sand, and rock. Substituting lighter for heavier materials also puts downward pres- sure on national materials use. Replacing heavy copper cable with light fiber optics not only reduces the amount of mass consumed but also reduces the need for mining copper ore. Lightweight plastics now pro- vide the primary material for pipes, formerly made of steel and lead (Figure 3-4~. The quantity of carbon steel in American automobiles fell drastically during the 1970s, while high strength steel alloys, plastics, composites, and aluminum continue to make up more of our cars (Figure 3-5~. For some products the same utility can be supplied with less mass of product. Metallurgical advances allow for steel beams with smaller cross-sectional areas to support loads. Sweetening foods with high-fruc- tose corn syrup uses only a fifth the mass of sugar to produce the same result to our palate. The ubiquitous aluminum beverage can is today 25 percent lighter than in 1973 (personal communication, Jenny Day, Direc- tor of Recycling, Can Manufacturers Institute). In addition to smaller mass, the aluminum beverage can provide a model of a highly successful recycling system with a recycling rate exceeding 70 percent.

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36 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION 1,000 900 my 800 700 600 120 1 1 1 1 Plastics and Composites ,_~ Carbon Steel (right scaled,,, (left scale) ~-~ High-Strength ~ Steel \ ~(right scale) \~ ~ . 1 1 11 20 1970 1 975 1980- 1985 1990 100 80 60 40 In ye FIGURE 3-5 Mass of carbon steel, high-strength steel, composite materials, and plastics in the average U.S. automobile: 1969-1989. Data from Ward's Automotive Yearbook (1970-1989~. Reprinted with permission. The combination of forces to reduce materials use in the industrial- ized countries drives a process that researchers have dubbed "dematerial- ization," or aggregate reductions in the amount of material needed to serve economic functions (Wernick et al., 1996~. Substitution of materials that require less mass to deliver a unit of a given service, a phenomenon formally named "transmaterialization," represents a central component of the proposed shift to lowered consumption. Developing nations can benefit from the knowledge-based shift to lower materials requirements. The dematerialization hypothesis main- tains that as nations launch into development later, their initial growth rates may be sharper, but consumption saturates at lower levels, as they can avoid the materials-intensive process of trial and error experienced by the earlier starters (Grubler, 1990~. The potential for reducing materi- als use through recycling, or "materials recovery," can also be studied in terms of mass transformations (Rogich, 1993; Wernick, 1994; Wernick et al., 1996; Allen, this chapter).

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62 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION Sheinbaum, C., and L. Schipper 1993 Residential sector carbon dioxide emissions in OECD countries 1973-1989: A comparative analysis. Pp. 255-268 in The Energy Efficiency Challenge for Europe: Proceedings of the ECEEE Summer Study, Vol. II. Oslo, Norway: European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS: A STRATEGY FOR ANALYZING THE IMPLICATIONS OF CONSUMPTION Faye Duchin LIFESTYLES AND THE ENVIRONMENT 63 Interest in personal consumption is of long standing in economics, and many related aspects of household behavior have been addressed in all the social sciences. Consumption can be viewed as the motor propel- ling an economy in that producers will fabricate only the goods and ser- vices that consumers want to buy. Very recently, environmental concerns have reinvigorated social scientists' interest in consumption. Most envi- ronmental degradation can be traced to the extraction of fuels and other materials and their transformation to produce, both directly and indi- rectly, the goods and services valued by consumers. Clearly, changes surrounding consumption would alter, and could alleviate, pressures on the environment. There are basically two ways in which such changes could be achieved. First, the technologies used to extract and transform materials could be improved in various ways. Second, consumption patterns could change. There are many efforts under way to develop technologies that are more efficient in their use of energy and materials and that generate less environmental damage than current practices. In this paper our con- cern is especially with consumption patterns. This paper describes a con- ceptual and methodological approach for situating consumption activi- ties within a broad socioeconomic framework. It brings together various pieces of work that I have carried out over the past few years and fills in the missing pieces to make a relatively complete and coherent frame- work. A book-length manuscript that elaborates the major aspects of this approach has recently been completed (Duchin, 1996~. Economists are concerned with consumption by individuals, but there are two compelling reasons to think in somewhat broader terms. First, an individual's consumption behavior is tightly linked with his or her em- ployment, in that earned income has to cover outlays for purchased goods and services. Consumption behavior is also related to other people's employment and consumption: if everyone stopped buying cars, auto workers (and, by a domino effect, many other workers) would soon be without jobs and income. Second, people live in households (including, of course, one-person households) that generally contain one or more paid workers. At least a portion of the income they earn is pooled, based

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64 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION on various kinds of negotiations, to pay for both common purchases and those of financially dependent individuals. A household's lifestyle refers to the jointly determined work and consumption practices of its mem- bers. THE LOGIC OF STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS There is a vast amount of literature indicating that consumer demand for specific goods levels off at higher incomes. However, prospects for overall saturation are far more ambiguous. Following I S Mill, a number of economists have expressed the view that once population levels off in affluent societies, other forms of satisfaction might be preferred to further purchases of goods and services (Mishap, 1967; Scitovsky, 1976; Hirsch, 1977), especially when people become aware of the environmental impli- cations (Boulding, 1973; Daly, 1977~. None of these authors, however, was able to provide an analytic framework for integrating these phenom- ena with other economic activities. The "new home economics" initiated by the work of Gary Becker, on the other hand, established the impor- tance of the household as a decision-making unit within the analytic framework of neoclassical economics. Household decisions are portrayed as maximizing the household's "utility" subject to budget constraints; the treatment is analogous to that of business firms concerned only with maxi- mizing their short-term profit (Becker, 1981~. Input-output economics provides a foundation for the description and analysis of household lifestyles that is both firmer and richer than neoclassical economics. However, this approach needs to be substantially extended in its coverage of both households and the physical environ- ment. Structural Economics provides this extended framework. Input-output economics describes the structure of an economy in terms of the interdependence among its different parts (Leontief, 1986~. In the dynamic formulation, changes in structure result from technologi- cal changes, the accumulation of stocks of physical capital, and the deple- tion of stocks of resources. The framework consists of two simple but extremely flexible mathematical models a model of physical intercon- nectedness and a corresponding representation of costs and prices and a highly structured database. In neoclassical economics, a money price needs to be associated with every variable, a network of parameters called elasticities govern auto- matic substitutions among inputs whenever prices change, economic ac- tions are limited to the operations of competitive markets, and a solution requires that all markets are simultaneously in "equilibrium." The power of these assumptions is that they assure unique, optimal solutions to com- plex problems. However, the problems that are solved are arguably not

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS 1 n 1 o 1 r I N D U S T R Y ( Capital ) H O U S E H O L D S E N V I R O N M E N T 65 FIGURE 3-17 A structural table of an economy. NOTE: A structural table incor- porates elements of an input-output table (n sectors), social accounting matrix to occupations; h categories of household), and natural resource accounts (r re- sources, w categories of wastes). See text. SOURCE: Duchin (1995~. the most useful representation of actual situations. An input-output solu- tion has the important advantages that it is not restricted to money val- ues: substitutions of one technology for another are governed by sce- narios rather than by formal mathematical expressions, and scenarios can reflect competitive behavior or behavior that is strategic, civic, or ethically motivated. Because many fewer kinds of assumptions are built into the formal framework, more burden falls on the development of scenarios and the interpretation of alternative outcomes. Structural Economics situates the detailed inter-industry relationships within a broader social context of household activities, which in turn are entirely contained within the physical environment. Figure 3-17 shows the way in which a structural table extends an input-output table. The household and environmental portions of the table draw on social ac- counting (Stone, 1986; Keuning and de Ruijter, 1988) and natural resource accounting (Central Bureau of Statistics of Norway, 1992; de Haan et al., 1993; Lange and Duchin, 1994), respectively. Mathematical relationships that deal with these extensions in a realistic way have been developed in a number of recent studies. A structural analysis starts by defining the questions that will be

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66 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION addressed and selecting or developing the mathematical model. A de- scription of various input-output models can be found in Duchin (1988~. Then classifications for industries, households, and resources are es- tablished, and the "transactions" among them are quantified for one or more historical years. National Accounts can provide the bulk of this information. The base year data are expressed as stocks or flows e.g., tons of coal absorbed by the steel industry. The model is formulated in terms of both variables (representing the stocks and flows) and parameters; the latter quantify the relationships among variables. An example of a parameter is the tons of coal required, on average, to make a ton of steel in the United States in 1992, given the mix of technologies in use at that time and the relative importance of each. The mathematical equations specify the kinds of parameters that are required. One or more scenarios are built for each of the questions to be ex- plored. An example will demonstrate how a scenario translates the ques- tion into variables and parameters. As part of an analysis of development strategies for Indonesia, we were asked what changes would be needed in agricultural technology for Indonesia to remain self-sufficient in food over the next several decades, while upgrading the quality of the diet for a growing population and being obliged to take some of the most fertile land out of food production (Duchin et al. 1993~. This scenario required assumptions about changes in diet (i.e., consumption parameters) and in the yields of new agricultural technologies (i.e., parameters for the agricultural sectors). The computa- tion would determine how much land would be required (i.e., endog- enous variables) to support these assumptions. Input-output case study methodology has been developed for struc- turing the data projections (Duchin and Lange, 1994~. Case studies for Indonesia, focused on the use of land, water, and energy, were carried out for households, forestry, rice, other food crops, estate crops, livestock, pulp and paper, cement, chemicals, food processing, textiles and apparel, and basic iron and steel. The computations showed that even the most optimistic assumptions about the adoption of advanced agricultural tech- nologies could not satisfy the land constraints and other requirements; food will need to be imported. CATEGORIES OF HOUSEHOLDS Standardized Industrial Classification (SIC) schemes for goods and services produced on farms and in factories and offices are in wide use. These classification schemes have made it possible to share data, compare across studies and across countries, and cumulate results. Standard Occu

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS 67 pational Classifications also exist, although they are less widely used. Classification schemes for households are more fundamental than those for occupations but are at a much earlier stage of development. Anthropologists and sociologists have provided detailed, qualitative description of specific categories of households; see Wilk and Lutzen- heiser (Chapter 4, this volume) for recent developments. Economists have established classifications that cover the entire society, but they are usually in terms of income categories only. An exception is the work done within the social accounting framework. Most Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) have been constructed to examine the distribution of income in developing countries. A particularly detailed SAM (a flow table similar in structure to the industry and household portions of Figure 3-17) is the one for Indonesia, where households are classified according to urban or rural location, ag- ricultural or nonagricultural nature of the work of the "head" of the house- hold, and economic status, for a total of ten categories. This SAM also distinguishes four occupations and whether or not the workers are paid (Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia, 1990~. The most promising kind of household classification scheme is one developed for consumer research and marketing based on a direct exami- nation of detailed data (by Jonathan Robbin; described in Weiss, 1988~. Observing that people who share a "zip code" tend to have similar life- styles, Robbin built a database about U.S. household practices in each of these small areas; he included detailed information from the Census of Households, automobile purchase lists, credit card information, voting records, social values from surveys carried out at the Stanford Research Institute, and a host of specialized, private surveys. Robbin discovered that 34 variables accounted for almost 90 percent of the variation among neighborhoods. Each zip code was rated on these variables and assigned to one of 40 clusters, for which Robbin created a descriptive name. The resulting classification, which is widely used by corporations and politi- cal candidates to customize their messages for specific markets, is shown in Table 3-5. Research scientists may well be able to improve on these categories for the kinds of purposes envisaged in this paper. At the present time, my colleagues and I are designing classification schemes and building structural tables for several developing countries (Indonesia, the Dominican Republic, and Namibia) in collaboration with local researchers and the national statistical offices. The classification schemes are obviously very different from that shown for the United States in Table 3-5 but have been stimulated by its example. After this type of work has been done in several countries with attention to using similar nomenclature for similar lifestyles some categories are likely to emerge that are common to a variety of societies. The most important

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68 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION TABLE 3-5 Household Classifications and Characteristics for the United States in 1987 ZQ Cluster Description % U.S. Househo 1 Blue Blood Estates America's wealthiest neighborhoods includes 1.1 suburban homes and one in ten millionaires 2 4 5 6 Money & Brains 3 Furs & Station Wagons Urban Gold Coast Pools & Patios Two More Rungs 7 Young Influentials 8 9 0 11 12 13 14 Young Suburbia God's Country Blue-Chip Blues Bohemian Mix Levittown, USA Gray Power Black Enterprise 15 New Beginnings 16 Blue-Collar Nursery 17 New Homesteaders 18 New Melting Pot 19 Towns & Gowns 20 Rank & File 21 Middle America 22 Old Yankee Rows 23 Coalburg & Corntown 24 Shotguns & Pickups 25 26 Posh big-city enclaves of townhouses, condos and apartments New money in metropolitan bedroom suburbs Upscale urban high-rise districts Older, upper-middle-class, suburban communities Comfortable multi-ethnic suburbs Yuppie, fringe-city condo and apartment developments Child-rearing, outlying suburbs Upscale frontier boomtowns The wealthiest blue-collar suburbs Inner-city bohemian enclaves a la Greenwich Village Aging, post-World War II tract subdivisions Upper-middle-class retirement communities Predominantly black, middle- and upper-middle class neighborhoods Fringe-city areas of singles complexes, garden apartments and trim bungalows Middle-class, child-rearing towns Exurban boom towns of young, midscale families New immigrant neighborhoods, primarily in the nation's port cities America's college towns Older, blue-collar, industrial suburbs Midscale, midsize towns Working-class rowhouse districts Small towns based on light industry and farming Crossroads villages serving the nation's lumber and breadbasket needs Rustic cottage communities located near the coasts, in the mountains or alongside lakes Agri-business Small towns surrounded by large-scale farms and ranches 0.9 3.2 0.5 3.4 0.7 2.9 5.3 2.7 6.0 1.1 3.1 2.9 0.8 4.3 2.2 4.2 0.9 1.2 1.4 3.2 1.6 2.0 1.9 5.2 2.1 27 Emergent Minorities Predominantly black, working-class, city 1.7 neighborhoods 28 Single City Blues Downscale urban singles districts 3.3 29 Mines & Mills Struggling steeltowns and mining villages 2.8 30 Back-Country Folks Remote, downscale, farm towns 3.4 31 Norma Rae-ville Lower-middle-class milltowns and industrial 2.3 suburbs, primarily in the South 32 Smalltown Downtown Inner-city districts of small industrial cities 2.5 33 Grain Belt The nation's most sparsely populated rural 1.3 communities

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS ~ United 69 % U.S. Median Home % College Household Income Value Graduate Les 1.1 $70,307$200,000+a 50.7 s [os 0.9 45,798150,755 45.5 orbs 3.2 50,086132,725 38.1 0.5 36,838200,000+a 50.5 unities 3.4 35,89599,702 28.2 0.7 31,263117,012 28.3 2.9 30,398106,332 36.0 5.3 38,58293,281 23.8 2.7 36,72899,418 25.8 6.0 32,21872,563 13.1 ch Village 1.1 21,916110,669 38.8 .s 3.1 28,74270,728 15.7 s 2.9 25,25983,630 18.3 riddle- 0.8 33,14968,713 16.0 ten 4.3 24,84775,354 19.3 2.2 30,07767,281 10.2 families 4.2 25,90967,221 15.9 in the 0.9 22,142113,616 19.1 1.2 17,86260,891 27.5 1.4 26,28359,363 9.2 3.2 24,43155,605 10.7 1.6 24,80876,406 11.0 rming 2.0 23,99451,604 10.4 nber and 1.9 24,29153,222 9.1 e coasts, 5.2 20,14051,537 12.8 ns and 2.1 21,36349,012 11.5 1.7 22,02945,187 10.7 3.3 17,92662,351 18.6 2.8 21,53746,325 8.7 3.4 19,84341,030 8.1 Lal 2.3 18,55936,556 9.6 2.5 17,20642,225 10.0 1.3 21,69845,852 8.4 continued on next page

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70 TABLE 3-5 Continued ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION % U.S. Househo ZQ Cluster Description 34 Heavy Industry Lower-working-class districts in the nation's older 2.8 industrial cities 35 Share Croppers Primarily southern hamlets devoted to farming and 4.0 light industry 36 Downtown Dixie-Style Aging, predominantly black neighborhoods, typically 3.4 in southern cities 37 Hispanic Mix America's Hispanic barrios 1.9 38 Tobacco Roads Predominantly black farm communities throughout 1.2 the South 39 Hard Scrabble The nation's poorest rural settlements 1.5 40 Public Assistance America's inner-city ghettos 3.1 National Median NOTE: The source document does not report the year for which the data apply or the price unit. The household percentages are based on 1987 data, but the values appear to be for 1986 in current prices. The table shows a median household income of $24,269; this com- pares with figures of $23,618 for 1985 and $24,897 for 1986, according to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States (1994), Table No. 707. The ZQ (zip qual lifestyle changes in the developing countries surround those households whose work is unregistered and untaxed, and who are largely not reached by social services. Their ways of life are being rapidly altered by urban- ization and industrialization. The objective of scenario analysis in this context is to anticipate the nature and magnitude of these changes in terms, for example, of the future demand for education, health care, sani- tary facilities, or small loans. REFERENCES Becker, G.S. 1981 A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press. Boulding, K. 1973 The economics of the coming spaceship earth. Pp. 253-263 in H.E. Daly, ea., Economics, Ecology, Ethics. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman. Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia lsso Social Accounting Matrix for Indonesia, 1985. Jakarta, Indonesia. Central Bureau of Statistics of Norway 1992 Natural Resources and the Environment 1991. Oslo, Norway. Daly, H. 1977 Steady-State Economics. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

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TRACKING THE FLOWS OF ENERGY AND MATERIALS 71 % U.S. Median Home % College Household Income Value Graduate 's older 2.8 18,325 39,537 6.5 Sing and 4.0 16,854 33,917 7.1 i, typically 3.4 15,204 35,301 10.7 1.9 16,270 49,533 6.8 oughout 1.2 13,227 27,143 7.3 1.5 12,874 27,651 6.5 3.1 10,804 28,340 6.3 $24,269 $64,182 16.2 ity) index, based on income, home value, education, and occupational status, measures socioeconomic rank. aThe upper census limit for home values is $200,000+; the figures for Blue Blood Estates and Urban Gold Coast are estimates. SOURCE: Duchin (1995), based on Weiss (1988) pp. 4, 5, 12, 13. de Haan, M., S. Keuning, and P. Bosch 1993 Integrating Indicators in a National Accounting Matrix Including Environmental Ac- counts. Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, No. NA-060. Duchin, F. 1988 Analyzing structural change in the economy. In M. Ciaschini, ea., Input-Output Analysis: Current Developments. London: Chapman and Hall. 1995 Global Scenarios about Lifestyle and Technology. Paper prepared for the Sus- tainable Future of the Global System conference, United Nations University, To- kyo, Japan. Household Lifestyles: The Social Dimension of Structural Economics. Paper press prepared for the United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. Duchin, F., C. Hamilton, and G. Lange 1993 Environment and Development in Indonesia: An Input-Output Analysis of Natu- ral Resource Issues. Final report for Indonesian Ministry of Planning. U.S. Agency for International Development and Canadian International Development Agency. Duchin, F., and G. Lange 1994 The Future of the Environment: Ecological Economics and Technological Change. New York: Oxford University Press. Hirsch, F. 1977 Social Limits to Growth. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul. Kenning, S., and W. De Ruijter 1988 Guidelines to the construction of a social accounting matrix. Review of Income and Wealth. Series 34. [(March): 71-100. in

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72 ENVIRONMENTALLY SIGNIFICANT CONSUMPTION Lange, G., and F. Duchin 1994 Integrated Environmental-Economic Accounting. Natural Resource Accounts, and Natural Resource Management in Africa. Washington, D.C: Winrock Interna- tional Environmental Alliance. Leontief, W. 1986 Input-Output Economics, 2nd ed. New York: Oxford University Press. Mishan, E.J. 1967 The Costs of Economic Growth. New York: Penguin Books. Scitovsky, T. 1976 The Joyless Economy. New York: Oxford University Press. Stone, R. 1986 Social accounting: The state of play. Scandinavian Journal of Economics: 453-472. U.S. Bureau of the Census 1994 Statistical Abstract of the United States. Table No. 707. Washington D.C.. Department of Commerce. Weiss, M.J. 1988 The Clustering of America. New York: Harper and Row. U.S.