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OCR for page 34
4
Management and Operational Support
LEADERSHIP
NWS leaders have expended substantial efforts to plan
the current modernization and acquire new technology. In
particular, the committee commends the NWS for the great
strides made in the modernization of the NWS hydrology
program, especially when one considers the funding uncer-
tainties and the pressures of many oversight groups. Not-
withstanding these efforts, the committee identified a num-
ber of issues that require attention from NWS leaders; these
issues surfaced during briefings at the NWS headquarters,
visits to field offices, and in other interactions with field
personnel.
Program Responsibilities and Perceptions
In contacts with field office personnel, including a review
of questionnaire responses, the committee found many
misperceptions, misunderstandings, or distrust of modern-
ization activities related to hydrologic and hydrometeoro-
logical functions, products, and services. In particular, the
benefits of the integration of certain hydrologic and meteo-
rological duties and responsibilities are neither clearly un-
derstood nor readily accepted in many field offices. As de-
scribed in Chapter 2, the coupling of hydrologic and hydro-
meteorological service components in the RFCs (River Fore-
cast Centers) and WFOs (Weather Forecast Offices) will re-
quire efficient working relationships in all RFC and WFO
operations to provide timely and accurate products and ser-
vices to public, private, and government users.
Conclusion. Misunderstandings about the roles and respon-
sibilities of personnel within these operational elements of
the NWS particularly with respect to hydrometeorological
duties need to be resolved at all levels of the organization.
The committee found, for example, that flash flood fore-
casting is not perceived by NWS personnel in some field
offices as having high-priority support from NWS headquar-
ters. Part of that perception stemmed from delays in pro-
gram testing and risk-reduction efforts caused by the
34
unavailability of hardware and software programs to handle
the vast amounts of hydrologic and hydrometeorological
data and the local models for flash flood products. Another
source of that perception was the seeming lack of "owner-
ship" of flash flood programs. Program and development
responsibilities are seen by field offices as being split
between the Office of Hydrology and the Office of Me-
teorology, with neither in total charge of the entire hy-
drology and hydrometeorology modernization program
for flash floods.
Recommendation 4-1. The NWS must communicate the
objectives of the hydrologic and hydrometeorological as-
pects of the modernization program and progress that has
been made in the program more effectively to its employees
as well as to users of its services. In particular, the NWS
should ensure that responsibilities for the integrated hydrol-
ogy and hydrometeorology programs are clearly assigned
and understood at all levels of the NWS. Interdisciplinary
advisory or working groups such as the Service Hydrologist
Working Group could be essential intermediaries in this
communication process.
Availability of Advanced Weather Interactive
Processing System
The AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing
System) is an essential element of data collection, quality
control, processing, and electronic dissemination of hydro-
logic and hydrometeorological data. The AWIPS is also es-
sential to the integration of data, analyses, and models that
enable improvements in river and flash flood forecasting
programs. Although NWS leaders have pressed consistently
to implement the AWIPS, a variety of technical, funding,
and political setbacks have slowed the development and
implementation program. As of November 1996, only 9 out
of 147 planned units had been delivered to field offices. At
this point in the modernization and restructuring, the relative
absence of the AWIPS is preventing full realization of the
benefits of the modernization program. As data from other
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MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL SUPPORT
new technology systems have become available, the lack of
AWIPS work-station capabilities continues to cause grow-
ing inefficiencies in data processing and data integrations
which, in fast-breaking weather situations, will result in less
accurate and timely warnings than those possible with the
newer work-station technologies. Indeed, it appears that
some of the dissatisfaction with the modernization found
among field office staff is due to the slow pace of the AWIPS
implementation and the problems it has engendered.
Conclusion. Should the national implementation of the
AWIPS continue to be delayed, it is certain that the volumi-
nous data streams now being produced will not be used to
their full potential. It is even possible that they will have a
negative impact on hydrologic operations in a modernized
NWS because the sheer volume of new data will at times
overwhelm human processing capabilities.
Recommendation 4-2. The AWIPS implementation pro-
gram should be expedited to enable NWS offices to ex-
ploit the use of data from new technologies and to realize
improvements in the river and flash flood forecasts and
warnings.
Responsiveness and Follow-Through Activities
The NWS has expended substantial time and effort in
conducting national disaster surveys, usually in conjunction
with representatives from other federal agencies. However,
the committee found no cohesive effort to document NWS
progress or follow-on activities in hydrologic or hydro-
meteorological operations or programs in response to rec-
ommendations in previous national disaster survey reports.
The same is true for hydrology recommendations made in
previous National Research Council reports on the NWS
modernization program. The committee also found no sys-
tematic procedures to update planning documents, such as
Hydrometeorological Service Operations for the 1990s
(NWS, 1991,1996a), as technology and development activi-
ties progress. Such external inputs and reviews provide valu-
able feedback on the modernization and restructuring effort.
Conclusion. It is not enough to respond to external over-
sight with ad hoc adjustments that are recognized only inter-
nally; more-formal responses and follow-up reports are war-
ranted and will improve the support the modernization and
restructuring receives from the meteorology and hydrology
community at large.
Recommendation 4-3. The NWS should establish a sys-
tematic method to report formally on activities related to
recommendations for changes in its operations, products, or
services that appear in disaster surveys and other policy-
related oversight reports. NWS planning documents should
be updated routinely to reflect such changes.
35
Funding
Some of the misunderstandings and criticisms of delays
or priorities in the modernization of hydrology and hydro-
meteorology programs can be traced to inadequate or incon-
sistent funding of these programs. NWS management often
has few alternatives other than to stretch programs or delay
acquisition, tests, or other modernization activities. The re-
sultant turbulence ripples through the management and op-
erational echelons to field offices, where the application of
new technologies is sorely needed to improve products and
services. Continued inefficiencies in the use of old technolo-
gies frustrate field office personnel because the effective-
ness of their operations and services is hampered. These is-
sues have been documented in various national disaster sur-
vey reports (NOAA, 1994c).
Funding cuts or reallocations by Congress, the U.S. De-
partment of Commerce, and the NOAA (NOAA, 1994b,
1995b) have caused delays in the development and imple-
mentation programs for the Geostationary Operational En-
vironmental Satellite, NEXRAD, and AWIPS (NRC, 1994,
1995~. As a result, NWS forecasters have had to rely on old
workstation technologies and outdated forecasting practices
to provide forecasts and warnings. Needed improvements in
forecast accuracy and in the efficiency of forecast operations
have been delayed. Risk-reduction activities for hydrology
and hydrometeorology were also delayed several years be-
cause of insufficient hardware and software assets in the
NWS. Prior reports of this committee urged that funding
commitments be kept and even increased to enable the mod-
ernization to proceed smoothly and on schedule (NRC,
l991b, 1992~.
Conclusion. Inadequate or inconsistent funding of NWS
hydrology and hydrometeorology programs yields additional
costs, not only in the programs themselves, but also in prop-
erty losses and even human lives.
Recommendation 4-4. Congressional action is needed to
assure continuity of the funding required to complete the
NWS modernization as expeditiously as possible.
RESEARCH, DEVELOPM ENT, TESTING,
AND EVALUATION
According to NWS plans (NWS, 1996a), the Office of
~~ ~ ~ ~~ ^ ~ ~ ~ ^ national pro
flydrology will focus on the development of
gram policy, procedures, and service directives in support of
the NWS hydrology program. The Office of Hydrology will
also provide technical development, implementation guid-
ance, and maintenance support for nationally supported hy-
drologic systems and procedures at both RFCs and WFOs. A
major focus of the Office of Hydrology will continue to be
the development and support of applications software to
capitalize on the new hydrometeorological technologies of
the modernized NWS. A significant effort will continue in
the Hydrology Research Laboratory to develop and improve
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36
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OPERATIONS AND SERVICES
hydrologic and hydrometeorological techniques for river and
flash flood forecasting on both an areal and site-specific ba-
sis. The committee commends the Office of Hydrology and
the Hydrology Research Laboratory for establishing an ex-
tensive and aggressive software development effort for new
tools and techniques for hydrology and hydrometeorology
applications at RFCs and WFOs.
Research and Development
Given its small size, the NWS supports a relatively sig-
nificant research and development program that has pro-
duced very useful results. The interactive hydrology forecast
applications for pre-AWIPS workstation platforms are inno-
vative and path breaking. Both the NWSRFS (NWS River
Forecast System) and the WHFS (WFO Hydrologic Fore-
cast System) are key contributions to the modernization, and
their early completion represents two major milestones for
the AWIPS.
The Office of Hydrology is also involved in climate re-
search related to global change. The observation network
maintenance, data quality control, and data assimilation ac-
tivities of the NOAA and NWS personnel contribute to the
national global change research program through the Global
Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental-Scale In-
ternational Project. (This project is a multiyear hydrology
and climate research initiative focused on the Mississippi
River Basin.) An improved understanding of the interannual
variability of the global energy and water cycle is relevant to
the main objectives of the Water Resources Forecasting Sys-
tem as well as to ensemble and long-range forecasting pro-
grams in the NOAA. Furthermore, the tasks related to the
improvement of land-surface boundary representation (soil
and vegetation) in numerical models of the atmosphere will
contribute to improvements in guidance products from nu-
merical weather prediction models that are used in opera-
tional hydrology and meteorology.
However, considerably less effort is under way on re-
search issues related to the scientific bases of hydrologic
procedures and models used in day-to-day operations. Of the
existing research programs, few are related to operational
flood forecasting. Limited work is under way to:
.
test and incorporate new and innovative algorithms and
parameterizations for the NWSRFS and WHFS hydro-
logic components
· develop improved algorithms to estimate precipitation
based on NEXRAD measurements
· test the performance and validate the use of quantita-
tive precipitation forecast and probabilistic quantitative
precipitation forecast in hydrologic models
· develop and evaluate operationally topography-based
or distributed flood forecasting procedures
Conclusion. Although a modest level of NWS hydrology
research is in progress or planned, the overall objectives,
priorities, relevance, and cohesiveness of research activities
within the Office of Hydrology are unclear or absent. In ad-
dition, information on NWS research and development ac-
tivities is not received at field offices in a timely manner and
often is not considered credible by field office staff.
Recommendation 4-5. The NOAA and the NWS should
establish a formal, long-term plan for hydrologic science re-
search that includes priorities and is relevant to river flood
and flash flood forecasting. The NWS should request suffi-
cient funding to implement and sustain the research. The
plan should be communicated to field personnel so as to
improve the overall NWS vision for hydrologic services in
the twenty-first century. In addition, NWS headquarters
should disseminate regularly to its field offices updates on
research and development activities, their specific objec-
tives, and timetables.
Operational Test and Evaluation
Test and risk-reduction activities are in progress at sev-
eral sites in the central and northeastern United States
(e.g., pre-AWIPS systems at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,
and Taunton, Massachusetts).
Conclusion. The committee agrees with concerns expressed
at field offices that some procedures and techniques used in
these activities are tailored and modified for specific geo-
graphic areas and need to be tested for the full range of ad-
verse weather experienced in other areas of the United States.
Recommendation 4-6. NWS operational test and evalua-
tion for hydrology applications, especially flash floods,
should be conducted in various regions around the country
that experience different types of weather.
Recommendation 4-7. Updated information on NWS hy-
drology operational test and evaluation activities should be
provided to field offices on a routine basis, both to keep
employees informed and to encourage broader participation
in development and test efforts.
ADVISORY GROUPS
Early in the modernization planning, the NWS established
various working groups (e.g., the Service Hydrologist Work-
ing Group, the WFO Hydrologic Systems Group, the AWIPS
Requirements Task Team, and Build-9 for NEXRAD) to re-
view requirements and to develop plans to improve products
and services in hydrology and hydrometeorology. Personnel
at all echelons of NWS operations judged the contributions
of these groups to be beneficial and effective in the estab-
lishment of a sound modernization program. Earlier National
Research Council reports (NRC, l991b, 1992) stated that
consultation with field personnel would benefit the modern-
ization program throughout its development and implemen-
tation phases; such benefits were realized. An advisory
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MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL SUPPORT
group, the Service Hydrologist Working Group, was estab-
lished in July 1994 to assist with AWIPS software develop-
ments pertaining to hydrology.
Conclusion. Continuing involvement of field personnel in
the modernization is vital. One or more similar advisory or
working groups need to be reestablished with reference to
the hydrometeorological aspects of the modernization and
restructuring. Such a group could provide important feed-
back on data quality control, forecast verification, hydro-
logic modeling, and precipitation processing techniques.
Recommendation 4-8. The NWS should use internal advi-
sory groups consistently throughout major planning, devel-
opment, test, and implementation phases of the hydrology
modernization program. These groups should include field
office members and be encouraged to advise NWS head-
quarters on matters relating to research and development,
operational test and evaluation, and overall modernization
implementation.
Fl ELD I N ITIATIVES
During visits to field offices, the committee found several
examples of initiatives in which new flash flood forecasting
methodologies had been developed that were potentially use-
ful to other offices. Field forecasters who developed these
new initiatives had received some help and encouragement
from their regional office, but the perception in the field was
that they had received little or no support for their efforts
from NWS headquarters. More recently, centrally developed
or modified site-specific and area-wide hydrologic predic-
tion systems have been tested at several locations, and the
feedback on their utility is encouraging.
Conclusion. The committee perceives that the seeming lack
of support for local initiatives has resulted in part from
competition for resources designated for centrally managed
research and development activities. Local initiatives can be
productive, both in the development of useful technologies
and in building morale. Such initiatives deserve support at
the highest levels.
Recommendation 4-9. The NWS should ensure that suffi-
cient technical support and resources are available to sup-
port a modest level of local initiatives to develop forecasting
techniques and methodologies at field offices.
INTERNATIONAL PROJECTS
The NWS has a long history of supporting international
technology transfer activities that make U.S. hydrologic fore-
casting methods available worldwide. In recent years the
NWS, through its Office of Hydrology, has contributed sub-
stantial technology and leadership to river forecasting and
water resources management programs in other countries. For
example, the modernized NWSRFS has been implemented
37
and tested for river basins in China (Huai River) and Egypt
(the Nile). Implementation of state-of-the-art observing and
forecasting systems is the main objective of this initiative.
These are valuable transfer-of-technology pilot projects for
developing countries; the activities use tools and techniques
developed by NOAA personnel for operations and training
programs.
These projects are supported fully by international reim-
bursable arrangements. The projects have also benefited the
NWS in that it has applied lessons learned in satellite pre-
cipitation estimation and other assessment techniques to ap-
plications in its national programs.
Conclusion. Although the committee was unable to deter-
mine clearly whether NWS resources that support interna-
tional programs have had a positive or negative impact on
the overall hydrology modernization programs, it is con-
cerned that this type of activity could compete for key per-
sonnel or operational resources during critical development
and implementation phases of the modernization.
Recommendation 4-10. The NWS participation in interna-
tional water resources and climate studies projects should be
reevaluated to ascertain its impact on scientific research
needs that are more directly related to NWS modernization
and hydrologic operations.
PERSONNEL
Given the substantial changes in hydrology-related roles
and functions, both within and across field offices in the
modernized NWS, assignment of sufficient numbers of ap-
propriately qualified personnel to hydrologic duties is essen-
tial to the success of modernized operations.
Qualifications
The qualification standard for hydrometeorologists re-
quires those hydrometeorological personnel with duties that
have a meteorological emphasis to have 24 semester hours
of core meteorology courses augmented by 6 semester hours
in hydrology. Those personnel having duties with a hydrol-
ogy emphasis are required to have only 15 hours of core
hydrology augmented with 6 semester hours of meteorology
(NWS, 1996a).
Because of the complexity of hydrologic science and
operations in today's modernized weather service, many
field office personnel feel strongly that all hydrologist and
hydrology-emphasis positions should require a degree
directly relevant to hydrology.
Conclusion. The committee concludes that NWS forecast-
ers with a degree or extensive formal education in meteorol-
ogy but no comparable training in hydrology usually are not
qualified for hydrologist positions. A more substantial edu-
cational background in hydrology is necessary for personnel
working in such positions.
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38
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OPERATIONS AND SERVICES
Recommendation 4-11. The NWS should review and, if
warranted, modify its qualification standards for hydrology
positions. The NWS should require a degree or extensive
formal education in hydrology for positions that involve a
hydrology emphasis.
Staffing
Overall, the NWS has done a thorough and exemplary job
of defining the requirements and planning the staffing needed
in the modernized hydrology and hydrometeorology func-
tions of the NWS. There are two exceptions. First, service
hydrologists will manage the hydrology programs at all fu-
ture WFOs; however, only 80 of the planned 119 WFOs will
have a service hydrologist assigned on station. Various
workload factors such as the frequency of flash floods, prox-
imity to other WFOs, number of RFC service locations, num-
ber of communities with flood problems, training of hydro-
meteorologists, etc., were used to determine which WFOs
would be assigned a full-time service hydrologist.
Conclusion. The committee remains concerned about the
vital and increasingly important role that the service hydrolo-
gist will play in the modernized NWS. It is possible that
most, if not all, WFOs may require a service hydrologist on
station. Second, at offices where operational tests and evalu-
ations are conducted, additional hydrologic expertise may
be needed to ensure a thorough, effective test of the new
systems and techniques.
Recommendation 4-12. The NWS should continue to re-
view and adjust hydrology staffing to meet specific opera-
tional needs as the modernization progresses.
TRAINING
Anticipating that the new technologies and scientific ad-
vances associated with the modernization would require a
massive restructuring of its training methods and courses,
the NWS developed a comprehensive master training plan
for the hydrometeorological service organizations for the
1990s (NWS, 1996a). An outline of this plan for hydrology
and hydrometeorology training is presented in Table 4-1.
The table lists the basic education courses and their contents;
most courses are required of entry-level hydrologists at RFCs
and WFOs. The list also includes a mix of correspondence
courses, distance learning modules, and training on new sys-
tems as they are implemented at weather offices.
The plan requires RFC and WFO personnel to take a va-
riety of hydrology and hydrometeorology training courses
and modules. The Basic Operational Hydrology (B OH)
course, which is offered at the National Weather Service
Training Center (NWSTC) in Kansas City, Missouri, con-
sists of 104 classroom hours and is intended mainly for hy-
drology interns and hydrologists who are new to the NWS.
The principal focus of BOH is on operational and procedural
topics. It provides an overview of hydrometeorology networks
and sensors, data quality control, operational river forecast-
ing, snow modeling, unit hydrograph theory, and basic top-
ics in heavy precipitation and flash flooding.
At the NWSTC, the existing Flash Flood Course has been
revised to include considerably more material on the mod-
ernized flash flood guidance and the WHFSs. The new
course, entitled "WFO Operational Hydrometeorology Fore-
castin~." teaches AWIPS-era hydrometeorology to meteo-
rologists. This course chiefly provides practical training on
the WHFS for meteorological forecasters who will use this
system to Generate flood warnings and advisories. Service
hydrologist personnel will also complete this course.
The Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology,
Education, and Training (COMET) (conducted by the Uni-
versity Center for Atmospheric Research) and its component
modules are also available to NWS personnel. The COMET
course is taught over three weeks and offers basic training in
the hydrologic sciences. It is specifically designed for hy-
drometeorological analysis and support forecasters, but other
RFC forecasters may also enroll. The COMET provides
training on basic hydrometeorological theory, with a focus
on meteorological and hydrometeorological conditions im-
portant to hydrologic forecasts. The course is also designed
to enable WFO science operations officers and service hy-
drology personnel to couple the hydrologic and meteorologi-
cal functions at the WFO effectively.
NWS personnel working on hydrologic operations have
also relied on correspondence courses; nearly 55 percent
have taken at least one correspondence course in a hydrology-
related discipline. However, these courses are of varying
quality, and the material is often dated or not relevant to the
operational duties of NWS personnel.
Other sources of specialized training exist for various
hydrology and hydrometeorology positions in the NWS.
Development and operations hydrologist personnel receive
training at the Hydrology Research Laboratory, and work-
shops are organized occasionally to meet other needs.
NEXRAD, Automated Surface Observing System User, and
RFC Gateway courses are available to RFC forecasters. In
addition, AWIPS User Training, Computer Operations and
Systems Training, the COMET Field Office Managers'
Course, and Hydrologic and Climatological Networks
courses satisfy additional specialized training needs.
Conclusion. After reviewing the training plan and course
contents in light of the operational duties and responsibili-
ties of hydrologists and hydrometeorologists, and based on
the reactions of NWS personnel to their participation in vari-
ous courses and training programs (see the appendix), the
committee concludes that new, specialized hydrology train-
ing modules are necessary to prepare hydrologic forecasters
for their new and complex duties and to fulfill the potential
of the modernization.
The committee also notes that technical materials in
the NWSTC BOH course, applicable U.S. Department of
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MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL SUPPORT
TABLE 4-1 Summary of Basic Training Courses Available for the Modernized Hydrology Program
University Education
College and/or university courses necessary to meet the Hydrometeorologist Qualification Standard (i.e., qualify as
Type A or Type B hydrometeorologist) and to advance to higher positions in the NWS hydrology program.
WSR-88D Operations Course
Theory of Doppler weather radar technology operational use of WSR-88D products.
~ , ~
Automated Surface Observing System Training
Operational use of Automated Surface Observing System training data
AWIPS User Training
Operational use of AWIPS.
AWIPS Systems Training
Systems, software, and database features of AWIPS.
RFC-Unique Systems Training
Operational use of Gateway II computer systems.
Computer Operations and Systems Training
NWS-identified courses and manuals on programming languages, operating systems, telecommunications packages,
and applications procedure design.
Specialized Development and Operations Hydrologist Training
Annual one-week workshop at Office of Hydrology covering advanced hydrology and hydrometeorology applications.
NWS Basic Operational Hydrology Course National Weather Service Training Center
Overview of hydrometeorological networks and sensors; introduction to hydrologic modeling principles including
river and reservoir routing, snowpack modeling, and model calibration; and overview of administrative reports and
forms used for the NWS hydrology program.
COMET Hydrometeorology Course
Operational application of advanced hydrometeorological networks and sensors; introduction to hydrologic modeling
principles including river and reservoir routing, snowpack modeling, and model calibration; and overview of
administrative reports and fonns used for the NWS hydrology program.
NWS WFO Operational Hydrometeorological Forecasting Course National Weather Service Training Center
Operational application WFO hydrometeorological AWIPS forecasting techniques.
Advanced Hydrology and Hydrometeorology Workshops
Background and theory of hydrometeorological analysis techniques, hydrologic modeling systems, model calibration,
interactive hydrologic forecasting, and operational applications.
Meteorological Training for Hydrologic Forecasters
Training in the basic principles of meteorology. Tended for individuals with hydrology backgrounds.
Hydrologic Training for Meteorologists
Distance leaning module in basic science of hydrology. Intended for individuals with meteorology backgrounds.
Hydrologic Services (Correspondence) Course II
History and current policies of the NWS hydrologic services program.
Hydrologic and Climatologic Networks Training
Distance learning modules providing knowledge on hydrologic and climatologic networks.
Field Office Managers Course National Weather Service Training Center
Management and administrative responsibilities of meteorologists-in-charge and hydrologists-in-charge in the
modernized NWS.
39
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40
ASSESSMENT OF HYDROLOGIC AND HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OPERATIONS AND SERVICES
Agriculture correspondence courses, and COMET modules
are far behind the development and implementation of new
tools and techniques in the RFCs and WFOs. The committee
agrees with the NWS that service hydrologists are central to
effective hydrologic operations in the modernized NWS in-
sofar as WFO meteorological forecasters do not have the
experience base or the educational foundation to deal with
hydrographs in complex watersheds especially those con-
taining water control structures (such as dams).
Conclusion. Although the new WFO Operational Hydro-
meteorology Forecasting course may be adequate for WFO
meteorological forecasters, it does not adequately meet the
needs of service hydrologists, who also serve as the scien-
tific liaisons for WFO hydrology.
Recommendation 4-13. The NWS should develop new, spe-
cialized hydrology training modules for RFC staff and WFO
service hydrologists that are compatible with the new mod-
els and procedures in the interactive hydrologic forecast en-
vironment. This training should include new quantitative
forecast techniques and the use of distributed observations
from a variety of new sensors and sources.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
flash flood
