TABLE H-1 Monthly Indices of Seasonal Variations in Crude Oil Exports, 1990-1995

Month

Oceanborne Crude Oil Exports from Arabian Gulf (past Hormuz)

Crude Oil Exports from Arabian Gulf to Red Sea or Mediterranean

Total Crude Oil Exports from Arabian Gulf

Jan.

101.90

117.10

102.10

Feb.

101.20

138.53

102.20

Mar.

100.90

92.53

101.10

Apr.

97.05

94.22

97.72

May

97.87

92.83

98.66

Jun.

99.16

91.60

99.15

Jul.

99.20

92.42

100.40

Aug.

98.79

91.09

97.63

Sept.

101.40

90.83

99.92

Oct.

100.80

93.86

99.64

Nov.

100.40

102.78

99.66

Dec.

102.38

102.20

101.80

Average

100.00

100.00

100.00

In the case of Suezmax tankers (Table H-3), the same seasonal pattern is present, although somewhat moderated in that the maximum spread of indices is lower. Similar trends are observed for Aframax tankers (Table H-4). For both Suezmax and Aframax tankers, data for the period since 1990 are insufficient to permit conclusions to be drawn.

Data for product tankers trading from the Caribbean to the east coast of the United States are given in Table H-5. Despite the fact that such tankers are smaller and operate in totally different trades from the VLCCs, Suezmax tankers, and Aframax tankers discussed earlier, the impact of the seasonal pattern on freight rates is very strong.

TABLE H-2 Quarterly Indices of Seasonal Variations in Freight Rates of VLCCs Trading from Rotterdam, 1970-1995

 

 

Quarter

Period

Number of Years

I

II

III

IV

Average for Year

Maximum Spread between High and Low Indices

1970-1995

26

82.99

85.28

116.06

115.67

100.00

33.07

1970-1989

20

72.05

82.64

121.19

124.12

100.00

52.07

1990-1995

6

90.81

72.67

119.67

116.85

100.00

47.00



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