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PART I
OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES ENTERING
THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
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1
Introduction
We live in an atmosphere that shapes our activities and states
of mind, an atmosphere whose storms threaten our lives and
property, and whose climate and composition influence the nature
and vitality of our societies. Today we see accelerating progress
as the atmospheric sciences develop improved understanding of the
atmosphere and thus an increasing capability to help society
anticipate atmospheric events. Observational technology and
strategies are advancing to provide improved understanding of
interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, and land. Enhanced
physical and mathematical understanding allows use of increasingly
powerful computers to organize observations and convert them into
predictions of weather, climate, and air quality. These advances
will enable the atmospheric sciences to develop notable new and
improved capabilities for serving society these and lead to a
vision for the science entering the twenty-first century:
Improvements in atmospheric observations,
further understanding of atmospheric processes, and advances in
technology will continue to enhance the accuracy and resolution of
atmospheric analysis and prediction. As a consequence, society will
enjoy greater confidence in atmospheric information and forecasts
and will be able to act more decisively and effectively.
Realizing this vision requires a focus on the observational and
modeling infrastructure, on research tasks with the greatest
promise, and on mechanisms to ensure that federal investments in
atmospheric research and operations are effective and produce
results significant to the nation in the early decades of the
twenty-first century.
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Four Centuries of Progress
The theoretical bases of the contemporary atmospheric sciences
have been established over the past four centuries, beginning in
the seventeenth century with the study of gases and the formulation
of Newton's laws of motion and continuing in the late nineteenth
century with the formalization of thermodynamics and radiation
theory. In North America, the study of meteorology and climate
began in the colonial period with Benjamin Franklin's investigation
of the passages of large-scale fronts and storms on the East Coast
and the relationship of lightning to electricity.
Early in the twentieth century, telegraphic transmission of
observations and the demands of aviation, agriculture, and other
activities stimulated meteorological research and the development
of conceptual models of storm and frontal systems that made crude
short-range predictions possible. Steady progress ensued, with
important advances often arising from technological developments.
Contemporary technologies being applied to atmospheric analysis and
prediction include remote sensing satellites, radars that measure
precipitation and wind, laser systems, and powerful digital
computers. The classical cycle continues: observations stimulate
theory, and, in turn, theory and new understanding stimulate new
observations and new capabilities for understanding and
prediction.
In recent decades, the emphases in the atmospheric sciences have
moved simultaneously in two directions: toward the smaller space
and time scales involved with physical processes and toward the
larger scales involved in the evolution and prediction of climate
and environmental change. Moreover, there is an increasing emphasis
on atmospheric chemistry and on the prediction of upper atmosphere
processes. In all cases, observations, theory, and computer models
combine to provide new understanding and prediction.
The Atmospheric Sciences and Other
Disciplines
To appreciate the key role of the atmospheric sciences in
understanding our world, imagine a planet without an atmosphere.
The surface is rough and torn, battered by meteor impacts.
Ultraviolet radiation and streams from solar flares impinge freely
on the surface, making life there impossible. The temperature
contrasts between day and night, between equator and pole, are
astonishingly large. The differences between this stark planet and
our own blue and green Earth arise from the presence of a
substantial atmosphere.
The atmosphere shelters life on Earth from the hazards of space
and provides the global transport system that maintains the
resources necessary for life. In addition to addressing their own
scientific challenges, the atmospheric sciences illuminate
important issues in a range of disciplines, while in turn drawing
on these disciplines to create more realistic portraits of the
forces and constraints that shape atmospheric behavior.
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Oceanography is perhaps the closest scientific partner of the
atmospheric sciences. The ocean surface is a critical boundary for
the atmosphere, which in turn provides a critical boundary for the
oceans. Across their common interface, the atmosphere and ocean
exchange energy, momentum, and some important chemical
constituents, most notably water in various forms. Because the
ocean and atmosphere interact so intimately in shaping and
controlling the planetary environment, many major initiatives today
concerned with climate and climate change are collaborative efforts
between the two sciences.
Improved understanding of atmospheric and oceanic circulations
has opened new areas of research for the geological sciences by
providing independent, physically based climate estimates that
stimulate new ideas and validate conclusions. Research in
atmospheric chemistry provides new understanding of chemical
reactions, sources, and sinks that enhance understanding of the
chemical evolution of the planet. Climate conditions shape the
distribution of life and must be taken into account by scientists
defining optimum conditions and limits of flora and fauna, as
species or as ecosystems.
Today, human health responses to weather and climate are
becoming apparent. Direct connections related to heat stress and
respiratory problems are augmented by climate variations that
modify disease vectors and affect carriers of infectious diseases.
Moreover, both the occurrence of skin cancer and the vigor of
immune systems appear to be related to the intensity of ultraviolet
radiation reaching the Earth's surface and hence are subject to
variations in atmospheric chemical constituents.
In 1963, the noted physicist Alvin M. Weinberg argued that the
relative scientific merit of disciplines could be assessed by their
impact on other disciplines, saying ''that field has the most
scientific merit which contributes most heavily to and illuminates
most brightly its neighboring scientific disciplines.'' On this
basis, the atmospheric sciences stand high among the disciplines
that study the Earth and its biological systems.
Looking Forward to the Twenty-First
Century
As the century turns, new areas of emphasis are enriching the
atmospheric sciences and sharpening their contributions to society.
At the same time, fundamental and worldwide changes in economic
activity and public policy are being driven at unprecedented rates
by the information revolution. Some aspects of contemporary society
are increasingly sensitive to atmospheric events. Thus, timely and
accurate information to support critical decisions is increasingly
valuable. Moreover, as the Earth's population grows and its
economic engines accelerate, human activities may force the
atmosphere-ocean-land system in ways and directions that we do not
yet completely comprehend.
As atmospheric issues become more complex and interdisciplinary,
the implications more critical, and federal funds more scarce, it
becomes especially
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pressing to set priorities for the atmospheric sciences so that
they simultaneously develop fundamental understanding and serve
national needs effectively. The improved benefits of atmospheric
science achieved through the synergy of increasing capability and
greater user confidence will be the measure of success as the
twenty-first century unfolds.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
sciences entering
