The notion of a casebook of examples is especially appealing. It could help educate test managers about the approaches to simulation of the operational performance of a defense system that work (and which do not), based on field use data, how these simulations were designed, and what statistical issues arise in relating information from the simulation to the field testing.

Recommendation 9.6: Modeling and simulation successes and failures for use in operational test design and evaluation should be collected in a casebook so that information on the methods, benefits, risks, and limitations of modeling and simulation for operational test can be developed over time.

The effectiveness of modeling and simulation for operational testing and evaluation is idiosyncratic. Some methods that work in one setting might not work in another. Indeed, it is unclear whether a simulation model could be declared to be working well when there is in fact limited information on operational performance prior to operational testing. Experiments need to be run for systems for which operational testing is relatively inexpensive and simulation models (which in this case would be redundant) developed to see if they agree with the field experience. Problems that are identified in this way can help analysts understand the use of models and simulations in situations in which they do not have an opportunity to collect full information on operational performance. Even in situations when operational testing is limited, it will be important to reserve some test resources to evaluate any extrapolations. For many types of systems, the state of the art for modeling and simulation is lacking, and field testing must stand on its own.

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