Executive Summary

This is the fourth report by the National Research Council's Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). The PNGV program is a cooperative research and development program between the federal government and the United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR), whose members are Chrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and General Motors Corporation. One of the aims of the program, referred to as the Goal 3 objective, is to develop technologies for a new generation of vehicles that could achieve fuel economies up to three times (up to 80 mpg) those comparable 1994 family sedans. At the same time, these vehicles should maintain performance, size, utility, and cost of ownership and operation and should meet or exceed federal safety and emissions requirements. The intent of the program is to develop concept vehicles by 2000 and production prototype vehicles by 2004. To meet this demanding schedule, a major PNGV milestone was the selection of the most promising technologies by the end of 1997 (sometimes referred to as the technology downselect).1

The committee's major tasks were to examine the overall balance and adequacy of the PNGV research program to meet the program goals and requirements (i.e., technical objectives, schedules, and rate of progress), examine the PNGV 1997 technology selection process, comment on the role of the government after the technology selection process and on how the PNGV program should interface, if appropriate, with other federal research programs. In assessing

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Goal 1 was to improve national competitiveness in manufacturing significantly, and Goal 2 was to implement commercially viable innovations from ongoing research on conventional vehicles. At the request of the PNGV, the sponsor of this study (see Appendix C), this report is focused on Goal 3 and the 1997 technology selection process.



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Executive Summary This is the fourth report by the National Research Council's Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). The PNGV program is a cooperative research and development program between the federal government and the United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR), whose members are Chrysler Corporation, Ford Motor Company, and General Motors Corporation. One of the aims of the program, referred to as the Goal 3 objective, is to develop technologies for a new generation of vehicles that could achieve fuel economies up to three times (up to 80 mpg) those comparable 1994 family sedans. At the same time, these vehicles should maintain performance, size, utility, and cost of ownership and operation and should meet or exceed federal safety and emissions requirements. The intent of the program is to develop concept vehicles by 2000 and production prototype vehicles by 2004. To meet this demanding schedule, a major PNGV milestone was the selection of the most promising technologies by the end of 1997 (sometimes referred to as the technology downselect).1 The committee's major tasks were to examine the overall balance and adequacy of the PNGV research program to meet the program goals and requirements (i.e., technical objectives, schedules, and rate of progress), examine the PNGV 1997 technology selection process, comment on the role of the government after the technology selection process and on how the PNGV program should interface, if appropriate, with other federal research programs. In assessing 1   Goal 1 was to improve national competitiveness in manufacturing significantly, and Goal 2 was to implement commercially viable innovations from ongoing research on conventional vehicles. At the request of the PNGV, the sponsor of this study (see Appendix C), this report is focused on Goal 3 and the 1997 technology selection process.

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progress and the efficacy of the program to meet its schedules and goals, the committee addresses several broad program issues. The committee also continues to review the PNGV systems analysis, which is essential (1) for making vehicle performance and cost comparisons for alternative vehicle configurations that incorporate widely different technology subsystem and component combinations and (2) for guiding the orderly selection and development of subsystem technologies with specific performance requirements for meeting the Goal 3 vehicle objectives. This Executive Summary highlights the committee's principal findings and recommendations. More detailed recommendations in each of the areas addressed by the committee can be found in the body of the report. The major areas addressed in this summary are: (1) progress in research in each technical area, (2) the technology selection process, (3) the economic viability of the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), (4) emission controls for the compression ignition direct injection (CIDI) engine, (5) the initiation of a comprehensive fuels strategy, (6) systems analysis, (7) safety, (8) the cost challenge, (9) adequacy and balance of the PNGV program, and (10) government involvement in post-concept vehicles. PROGRESS IN RESEARCH The PNGV Technical Roadmap details performance objectives and lays out milestones and schedules in each major technology area; the Roadmap has been updated for most of the PNGV technologies and provides a good summary of program goals. Although some technologies have now been dropped, the principal technology areas under development in the PNGV program are energy converters (CIDI engines and fuel cells), energy storage devices (batteries and flywheels), power electronics and electrical systems, and materials. In the committee's opinion, in spite of a shortfall in resources in many areas, good progress has been made in assessing the potential of each candidate system and identifying critical technologies necessary to make each system viable. In spite of this progress, however, the committee is concerned that the pace and funding of PNGV developments may not be a level for the United States to remain competitive on an international basis. In early January 1998, individual news releases from USCAR partners recognized this possibility by announcing aggressive new technology programs that involve substantial investments. A combination of PNGV and in-house company and foreign developments no doubt provided an effective stimulus for the USCAR partners to move more aggressively. Important technical advances during the past year are listed below: Internal Combustion Engines. Excellent progress has been made in the past year in all aspects of the four-stroke direct injection (4SDI) engine program, which has focused on the CIDI engine. A lightweight CIDI engine architecture study and a dimethyl ether (DME) alternative fuel design study were completed for CIDI engines. However, as is noted below, a recent stretch research objective for particulate emissions would require major changes in CIDI technology and fuels.

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Continuous Combustion Engines. As anticipated, the gas turbine and Stirling cycle engines have not reached a state of development suitable for use in the year 2000 concept vehicles, and both engines now fall into the post-PNGV technology development time frame. Progress has been made on the Stirling engine, except in the long-term retention and containment of the hydrogen working fluid; for gas turbines, the development of ceramic components has not progressed to the point that a low-risk, ceramic automotive gas turbine development program can be initiated. Nevertheless, the recent stretch research objective for particulate emissions may lead to the reevaluation of continuous combustion engines as potential energy to converters. Fuel Cells. Significant accomplishments and excellent progress have been made on fuel cells. A carbon monoxide (CO) tolerant fuel cell stack (at a CO concentration of 50 ppm) and a partial oxidation gasoline processor integrated with a fuel cell stack for gasoline-to-electricity conversion were demonstrated. Cost is still a major issue, along with many other engineering developments. Electrochemical Energy Storage. Considerable progress has been made in the development of full-size cells of lithium-ion batteries and of nickel metal hybrid batteries, although analysis via modeling is still at an early stage of development. One form of abuse tolerance was demonstrated for lithium-ion 6-Ah cells. Battery costs are still significantly high, and meeting the PNGV cost goals within the PNGV time frame will be an enormous challenge. Flywheels. Issues of safety, cost, and size are still barriers but are yielding to development programs. Recent data and design approaches have shown promise in overcoming a major safety issue, namely, containment of a flywheel failure for low-energy flywheels. Power Electronics and Electrical Systems. The PNGV technical team focused on this area has made considerable progress in organizing and coordinating its efforts, and a full-time leader has been appointed, as recommended by the committee in the Phase 3 report. Most targets for 1997 have been met or exceeded, and projected costs have been lowered substantially. An industry-wide specification was developed for an integrated power module. Meeting the PNGV cost targets is still a major challenge. Materials. The PNGV materials technology team and the vehicle engineering team have made a thorough evaluation of the lightweight candidate materials in preparation for the Goal 3 technology selection process. Weight-reduction potential has been determined for selected body structures. Aluminum is a leading candidate for the vehicle structure, and promising cost reduction initiatives are under way to bring the costs of an aluminum-intensive vehicle to a level competitive with today's steel vehicles. Glass-reinforced thermoplastic polymer is also a promising material for weight reduction because of the relatively low cost of the fiber, its fast cycle time, and its ability to integrate parts. Graphite-reinforced polymer is another candidate material but will require breakthroughs in cost and manufacturing techniques to be cost effective.

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In addition to the advances listed above, systems analysis has been completed on fuel economy trade-offs for major vehicle configurations, and driveable hybrid propulsion test vehicles (''mules") are running at all three USCAR partners' development facilities. TECHNOLOGY SELECTION PROCESS During the first four years of the PNGV program, both the USCAR partners and the government research managers have examined hundreds of possible technologies and avenues that might contribute to the success of the program. The first major milestone for the program, targeted for the end of calendar year 1997, is the selection of the most promising technologies for the Goal 3 concept vehicles. The PNGV has reached its milestone for the initial technology selection process on schedule, and the USCAR partners can now continue with the design and construction of their year 2000 concept vehicles (see Appendix F). The committee notes and commends this progress, which is an important step toward meeting the demanding PNGV goals and schedule. Each USCAR partner—Chrysler, Ford and General Motors—will develop separate concept vehicles, drawing from the spectrum of technologies developed under the PNGV. Based on the PNGV time frame and the level of maturity of the various technologies under consideration, the committee is not surprised that for the year 2000 concept vehicle the PNGV has focused on major weight reductions, reduced aerodynamic drag, reduced accessory loads, low-loss tires, CIDI engines, and a parallel HEV configuration that allows some level of recovery of braking energy. At the same time, the government will continue to work on high-risk enabling technologies that could be incorporated into subsequent concept vehicles between the year 2000 and 2004. From the inception of the program and with limited resources, the PNGV program has not been able to bring alternative energy converters and storage devices—notably fuel cells, gas turbines, Stirling cycle engines, flywheels, and ultracapacitors—to the state of development at which they could be selected for the year 2000 concept vehicles. Furthermore, the committee found no evidence that the PNGV program has stimulated an increase in resources for the development of these alternative systems and devices for automotive applications, with the exception of a recent acceleration of U.S. investment in fuel cells. Observers

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who expected to see accelerated development of these higher-risk concepts by PNGV may be disappointed. The committee recognizes, however, that added resources might not have lowered the risk or increased the payoff of any of these emerging technologies to the point that they would have been selected. The committee also recognizes that PNGV has no agreed-upon schedule or specified levels of resources for the development of alternative technologies that were not selected for the initial (year 2000) concept vehicles. The committee anticipates that longer-term, possibly revolutionary advanced automotive technologies may emerge beyond the PNGV time frame. Some of the year 2000 vehicle attributes will probably fall short of the established targets, but the preproduction prototypes are expected to meet the targets by 2004. Given the potential uncertainties in performance, utility, and cost of the concept vehicle, PNGV established the following criteria for its technology selection: Fuel Economy. The vehicle must have a fuel economy of up to 80 mpg. Emissions. The vehicle must meet the Tier II Clean Air Act Amendments gaseous emission standards and applicable ultra-low emission particulate standards. Safety. The vehicle design must meet federal motor vehicle safety standards. Performance. The vehicle should be within ± 30 percent of Goal 3 targets. Utility.2 The vehicle should be within ± 30 percent of Goal 3 targets. Cost Potential. The cost should be within 30 percent of the cost of the baseline vehicle. Table ES-1 lists the most promising technologies chosen by the PNGV in 1997. PNGV will discontinue development of gas turbine engines, Stirling engines, and ultracapacitors as energy storage devices. Based on calculations and assessments, PNGV computed the relative potential fuel economy of a number of vehicle power train configurations (see Figure ES-1). The projected fuel economies of these configurations range from 27 mpg to more than 80 mpg. The priority will be to reduce emissions from CIDI engines through combustion development, after-treatment, and fuel modifications. The development of a low-cost, low-mass vehicle, a low-cost, high-efficiency electric drive, and fuel cells will also be priorities. Excellent progress has been made in the development of CIDI engines. PNGV has identified a stretch research objective3 of 0.01 g/mile for particulate emissions that poses a significant challenge, in addition to the already difficult 2   Utility refers to the degree to which a given vehicle is useful to the individual car buyer and includes such attributes as passenger space, trunk capacity, seating capacity, and ergonomics. 3   A level of 0.01 g/mile is approximately equivalent to gasoline engine emissions.

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TABLE ES-1 Most Promising Technologies Selected by PNGV in 1997 Category Technical Area and/or Technology Power trains parallel hybrid electric drive Energy converters CIDI engine fuel cells Energy storage nickel metal hybrid batteries lithium batteries Emission controls lean Nox catalyst exhaust gas recirculation particulate traps Fuels fuel with less than 50 ppm sulfur Fischer-Tropsch fuel dimethyl ether fuel Electrical systems and electronics induction, reluctance, permanent magnet motors PEBB, IGBT, MOSFET, MCT semiconductors ultracapacitors Materials aluminum and/or reinforced polymer body-in-white Reduced energy losses low rolling resistance tires reduced HVAC requirements and more efficient components Source: Based on York (1997) and the PNGV Technology Selection Announcement (see Appendices D and F). Acronyms: PEBB = power electronic building block; HVAC = heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; IGBT = insulated gate bipolar transistor; MOSFET = metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor; MCT = MOS (metal oxide semiconductor) controlled thyristor. Body-in-white constitutes the primary structural frame of the vehicle not including bolt on pieces, such as the hood, doors, front fenders, and deck lids. problem of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. The prospects for developing a CIDI engine that would meet this stretch objective would change from encouraging to high risk. Given the stretch emissions objective, PNGV will need to reevaluate other candidate engines and system configurations. For example, Mitsubishi has published and reported to the committee that the fuel economy for its gasoline direct-injection engine may approach the fuel economy of the CIDI engine while achieving low-emission vehicle standards. As the PNGV program moves into the concept vehicle development phase, priorities among different technologies must be established. Recommendation. In light of the published improvements in gasoline direct-injection engines, it would be prudent for the PNGV partners to continue to assess developments in this technology against PNGV targets and the CIDI

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FIGURES ES-1 Relative fuel economy projections for various vehicle/power train configurations. All configurations except the current chassis/body include PNGV-class light-weight body, chassis, and interior (2,000 lbs); advanced aerodynamics; and low rolling resistance tires. The PFI/SI (port fuel injection/spark ignition) conventional vehicle is the baseline. Key: = current vehicle chassis/body; = future efficient vehicle body/chassis [light weight (2,000 lbs), sleek aerodynamics, and low rolling resistance]. Variance denotes downward uncertainty from unmodeled energy losses and upward uncertainty from improvement as technology matures. CIDI = compression ignition/direct injection; AdvSI = advanced spark ignition. AdvXM = advanced transmission. Source: Provided to the committee by PNGV. engine, whether or not the gasoline direct-injection engine is chosen as a potential PNGV power plant. Recommendation. The relationship between the criteria for technology selection and the critical requirements of Goal 3 should be made more explicit to facilitate the proper distribution of resources for an ongoing, well structured research and development program. ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF THE HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE Although significant progress continues to be made in technology development, the economic viability of the HEV remains to be demonstrated. HEVs are

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more complex than nonhybrid vehicles because of their added energy storage and recovery devices, electrical drive, and electronic controls for electric power. Despite the projected improvement in fuel economy of an HEV with a CIDI engine over a nonhybrid vehicle, the committee believes the difference is probably not enough to offset the higher cost of the HEV. Recommendation. The PNGV should continue to refine its detailed cost of ownership analyses of hybrid vs. nonhybrid vehicles. If the economic and performance benefits of the hybrid vehicle do not exceed or warrant its additional costs, the concept demonstration vehicle program should be expanded to include nonhybrid vehicles to accelerate the development and commercial introduction of economically viable technologies. EMISSIONS CONTROL FOR COMPRESSION IGNITION DIRECT INJECTION ENGINES The committee (and the PNGV 4SDI engine team) noted in its Phase 3 report that the most technically challenging aspect of the CIDI engine program will be meeting the NOx and particulate emission standards. In addition, meeting a more severe particulate matter emissions stretch research objective (0.01 g/mile) instead of the 0.04 g/mile target would require additional technological breakthroughs for the CIDI engine to meet PNGV milestones. Achieving these low emission levels will require significant advances in combustion control, as well as exhaust after-treatment and fuel composition changes. The extent to which combustion can be controlled through the use of electronic, high-pressure, fuel injection systems in small diesel engines is not known, but ongoing cooperation between the PNGV and the heavy-duty diesel engine industry should help to address this issue. Another very challenging area is exhaust-gas after-treatment, which will be required both for NOx and particulate emissions for CIDI engines to meet the PNGV goals. Both lean NOx catalysis and plasma-assisted after-treatment are being investigated, but progress in both areas has been slow. Despite the significant technical challenges, PNGV plans to continue to focus on exhaust-gas after-treatment. The PNGV recognizes the importance of the interaction between fuel properties and engine performance and emissions and is involved in programs to assess the potential for reducing emissions through fuel changes. For CIDI engines to meet the existing target of 0.2 g/mile for NOx and a research objective of 0.01 g/mile for particulate matter, PNGV will have to focus on alternative fuels. Recommendation. The PNGV should devote considerably more effort and resources to the exhaust-gas after-treatment of oxides of nitrogen and particulates. PNGV should consider greatly expanding its efforts to involve catalyst manufacturers.

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INITIATION OF A COMPREHENSIVE FUELS STRATEGY As the committee noted in previous reports, the PNGV Goal 3 is focused almost exclusively on vehicle issues, and no consensus has been reached on how to weigh trade-offs between the energy consumed or emissions produced by the vehicle and the energy consumed or emissions produced throughout the fuel processing and distribution infrastructure. Fuels will be critical to PNGV meeting the emission targets for the CIDI engine; for example, lowering the sulfur content of the fuel will lead to lower particulate emissions. Sulfur levels will also have to be low for a fuel cell with an onboard petroleum reformer. Modifying current refinery processes or synthesizing liquid fuels from natural gas could produce low-sulfur fuels. Widespread distribution of hydrogen will be a major infrastructure issue in the practicality of a fuel cell powered by hydrogen carried on the vehicle. An ample supply of properly tailored fuel will be critical to the success of any automotive energy converter. If a fuel significantly different from the ones now in use will be needed for future automobiles, extensive consideration of the feasibility and economics associated with its production and distribution should be undertaken early in the development process. If a major change in the fuel system infrastructure is required, even longer lead-time will be required. If the PNGV determines that a sequence of changes will be necessary, the economics of the industries involved should be studied carefully. The study may indicate that only one major change is economically feasible for the foreseeable future. If so, PNGV's choice of automotive energy converters will be restricted to converters that are compatible with a fuel that could be used for all of them. Recommendation. The PNGV should propose ways to involve the transportation fuels industry in a partnership with the government to help achieve PNGV goals. Recommendation. PNGV's choices of energy conversion technologies should take full account of the implications for fuel development, supply, and distribution (infrastructure), as well as the economics and timing required to ensure the widespread availability of the fuel. SAFETY New structural materials, power plants, fuels (including hydrogen), energy storage devices, and glazing materials are being considered by the PNGV to improve power train efficiency, energy storage, and weight reduction. Each new technology is likely to introduce new failure modes and new safety concerns in crash performance, flammability, potential for explosions, electrical shock, and toxicity. The committee decided not to review safety issues in depth with the PNGV technical teams until after the technology selection milestone had been reached; however, the committee is satisfied that the technical teams are aware of

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these issues and are addressing them on an ongoing basis as part of the overall program. For example, failure modes are under investigation for all promising technologies; the issues associated with handling and storing onboard hydrogen for fuel-cell-powered vehicles are being addressed; and computer simulations are being used to examine the crash performance of hybrid vehicles. In light of the role of the U.S. Department of Transportation-National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to regulate vehicle safety and its recent study on vehicle size and weight as related to safety, the committee believes it is appropriate that the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration become involved in studies of the crashworthiness of lightweight vehicles comparable to PNGV designs. Recommendation. PNGV and the USCAR partners should continue to make safety a high priority as they move toward the realization of the concept vehicles. SYSTEMS ANALYSIS The committee has been very critical in past reports of the lack of progress and timeliness of the PNGV systems analysis, which is critical to analyzing vehicle engineering trade-offs and to setting the performance and cost priorities of subsystem technologies. The committee is pleased to see that considerable progress has been made in the past year and that efforts are under way to provide effective design support to the PNGV technical teams through systems analysis. As the technology selection process for the concept vehicles continues between now and the year 2000, as well as beyond 2000, and as second-generation concept vehicles emerge and production prototypes are developed, the need for a robust and strong systems engineering and analysis team will increase. At this point, the PNGV has done little to incorporate cost modeling, and the committee believes that probabilistic models of vehicle and subsystem costs, with confidence levels, will be important tools for making decisions in the future. Another area that deserves more attention is reliability studies because every new sub-system being considered for the Goal 3 vehicles introduces new failure modes, which should be evaluated. Recommendation. Systems analysis and computer modeling are essential tools for making system trade-offs and optimizing performance. The PNGV should create detailed, rigorous cost and design reliability models as soon as possible to support ongoing technology selection. These models should be continuously upgraded as new information becomes available. FUEL CELL DEVELOPMENT Of the known technologies, fuel cells have the best long-term potential for automotive energy converters with high efficiency and low emissions; several impressive advances have been made in the performance of fuel cell stacks and

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fuel-to-hydrogen reformers. Nevertheless, fuel cells still face substantial obstacles to meeting performance and cost goals within the 2000 to 2004 time frame. Interesting developments have occurred both abroad and in the private sector. The most visible foreign developments have been made by Ballard Power Systems, Inc., of Canada, and Daimler-Benz, of Germany. A $450 million (Canadian) joint venture between these two companies has been formed to develop fuel-cell technology for vehicles. Ford Motor Company announced in the fall of 1997 that it would join this partnership with an investment of $420 million in cash, technology, and assets. The committee believes significant government-industry investments in fuel-cell technologies for transportation are also being made elsewhere in Europe and in Japan. Given this worldwide interest, the committee believes the PNGV should continue to make substantial efforts and investments in this potential automotive energy converter. Recommendation. Because of their high efficiency and low emission potential, fuel-cell systems for transportation could become vitally important to the United States. U.S. government and industry investments in research and development should, therefore, be continued at current levels or even be increased for an extended period. THE COST CHALLENGE Although significant technical progress has been made in many of the technologies that will be incorporated into the PNGV Goal 3 vehicles, meeting the cost targets remains a formidable challenge. A review of the proprietary cost models and analyses of two of the USCAR partners confirmed the magnitude of the Goal 3 cost challenge. The committee members who reviewed the cost data were fully satisfied that substantial in-depth cost analyses were being performed by two of the USCAR partners and that these analyses had influenced their product designs. The results of these analyses should be communicated to the PNGV systems analysis team for use in their cost modeling efforts without compromising the USCAR partners' proprietary interests. Recommendation. Because cost is a significant challenge to PNGV, the USCAR partners should continue to conduct in-depth cost analyses and to use the results to guide new development initiatives on components and subsystems. ADEQUACY AND BALANCE OF THE PNGV PROGRAM The committee found it difficult to assess the efforts and resources applied to the PNGV program because no funding plan was made available. However, the program to date has supported the selection of technologies for the concept vehicles with high potential for approaching the 80 mpg fuel economy target within the

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PNGV time frame. Although it is estimated to fall short of the 80 mpg goal, the projected fuel economy will represent a major achievement for either hybrid or nonhybrid vehicle configurations. Advances in HEV components and the work done to meet goals 1 and 2, as well as industry's attempts to reduce vehicle weight by using aluminum and other lightweight materials, are improving the prospects that PNGV vehicles will have high fuel efficiency. Assuming that the PNGV/USCAR partners perform as expected, that attempts to reduce costs are successful, and that the formidable challenge of emission requirements can be overcome, the committee believes that PNGV has allocated adequate resources to the selected technologies to realize, with a high degree of confidence, the year 2000 concept demonstration vehicles and the 2004 production prototype vehicles. In the future, the committee expects to see substantial progress toward the production and commercial introduction of the lower-risk technologies embodied in the concept vehicles, as well as progress toward overcoming the barriers encountered in the post-concept vehicle technologies. Increased attention worldwide to carbon dioxide levels, and the potential that an international agreement will require implementation of a national strategy, could accelerate the necessity of introducing lower risk near-term improvements in fuel consumption into the world's automotive fleets. Nonhybrid vehicles being developed globally use relatively low-risk technologies and have a potential to reduce the cost of ownership. Without minimizing the risk and the substantial efforts, large capital investment, and high infrastructure costs that will be required for further development, the committee notes the potential for the relatively early implementation of these technologies. A strategy of accelerated implementation of the technologies leading to an approximately 60+ mpg nonhybrid vehicle, coupled with an expanded research plan to reach the 80 mpg target, seems both prudent and feasible. Another committee concern is ensuring that technology developed for the PNGV midsize sedan is appropriately used for light trucks (pickups, minivans, and sport utility vehicles). The current light-truck market share has increased to almost 50 percent of sales. These vehicles are heavier and consume more fuel per mile than the average automobile. If present trends continue, making an impact on total U.S. transportation fuel consumption through the PNGV will require greater attention to light trucks. Recommendation. Government and industry policy makers should review the benefits and implications of PNGV pursuing a parallel strategy to achieve a 60+ mpg nonhybrid vehicle at an early date and should establish goals, schedules, and resource requirements for a coordinated development program. Recommendation. The PNGV should assess the implications of the growing vehicle population of light trucks in the U.S. market in terms of overall fuel economy, emissions, and safety. Wherever possible, the PNGV should develop strategies for transferring technical advances to light trucks.

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GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF POST-CONCEPT VEHICLES The committee was asked to comment on the role of government beyond the 1997 technology selection process and on how the PNGV might interact with other government research programs. Separate concept demonstration vehicles (by 2000) and production prototypes (by 2004) will be built by the USCAR partners with no significant participation by government. However, the government can and should support the development of longer-term technologies that are likely to be incorporated in subsequent concept vehicles. Beyond the demonstration of the concept vehicles and the PNGV time frame, the government should take the lead in developing high-risk, long-term technologies for vehicles with low fuel consumption and emissions. The development of these advanced vehicles will be especially important in light of concerns about climate change, concerns about maintaining U.S. competitiveness, and concerns about the country's balance of payments. The PNGV is a partnership of seven government agencies and the three USCAR partners, but it does not have the line management structure or budgetary authority to control projects by different agencies that may have different missions. One of PNGV's primary functions is to establish communications and the exchange of information on the technology and projects related to automobiles and to coordinate recommendations and jointly plan future projects. The PNGV should see that the public gets the maximum benefit from government-funded development by the various agencies and should encourage the support of high payoff technologies in automotive applications, such as low emissions, high efficiency, and low cost of ownership. Recommendation. The government should significantly expand its support for the development of long-term PNGV technologies that have the potential to improve fuel economy, lower emissions, and be commercially viable. Recommendation. The PNGV should expand its liaison role for the exchange of technological information among federal research programs that are relevant to automotive technologies and should accelerate the sharing of results among the participants in the PNGV on long-term, high-payoff technologies applicable to automobiles.