GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project

A REVIEW OF PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Panel

Climate Research Committee

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1998



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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project A REVIEW OF PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITIES Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Panel Climate Research Committee Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1998

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-5-00015. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-85699 International Standard Book Number 0-309-0608108 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) www.nap.edu Cover: Saarinen's Gateway Arch (1965) on the banks of the Mississippi River at the Jefferson National Expansion Memorial Park in St. Louis, Missouri, commemorates the westward expansion of the United States after Thomas Jefferson's purchase of the Louisiana Territory (1803) from Napoleon. St. Louis, a crossroads for the early French, British, and Spanish empires in North America, was a focal point for Mississippi River trade and a principal marshaling ground for the pioneer wagon trains setting out to the West on the Santa Fe and Oregon trails. The artist, Grace Roads (b. 1921), met her husband, Paul, in St. Louis (1944). They now reside in Lafayette, Colorado, part of the original Louisiana country comprising all the lands draining into the Mississippi—claimed in 1682 by René-Robert Cavelier, Sieur de La Salle, in the name of King Louis XIV. Mrs. Roads is the mother of John Roads, a member of the GEWEX panel. Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT (GEWEX)PANEL SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN (Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson BRUCE A. ALBRECHT, University of Miami, Florida JOHN J. BATES, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Environmental Research Laboratories, Boulder, Colorado RICHARD E. CARBONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado SAMUEL EPSTEIN, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena KAREN S. HUMES, University of Oklahoma, Norman JAMES W. HURRELL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DEVENDRA LAL, University of California at San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER, University of Washington, Seattle P. CHRIS D. MILLY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey PIERRE MOREL, University of Paris, France HAROLD D. ORVILLE, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City JOHN O. ROADS, University of California at San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey JAMES A. SMITH, Princeton University, New Jersey ROBERT A. WELLER, Princeton University, New Jersey EDWARD J. ZIPSER, Texas A&M University, College Station Staff H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer PETER SCHULTZ, Program Officer KELLY NORSINGLE, Senior Project Assistant

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE THOMAS R. KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado BERT BOLIN, Osterskar, Sweden JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia JAMES E. HANSON, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, N.Y. PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network, University Center, Michigan S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of New Hampshire, Durham STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina KARL E. TAYLOR, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California ANNE M. THOMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland Staff LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer KELLY NORSINGLE, Senior Project Assistant

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Co-chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C. SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia MARK R. SCHOEBERL, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts Staff GREGORY SYMMES, Acting Director H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (IPA) ELLEN F. RICE, Program Officer/Reports Officer LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer PETER SCHULTZ, Program Officer DORIS BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant KELLY NORSINGLE, Senior Project Assistant TENECIA BROWN, Project Assistant

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C. HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities Foreword The very nature of weather and climate demands an international perspective and a comprehensive research approach. For more than a decade, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) has provided the context and vision for international collaboration directed toward the study of the key areas of uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Our efforts to understand climate variability and to predict future climate change have highlighted many aspects of the hydrologic cycle and the exchange of energy and water at the atmosphere-surface interface as areas of critically needed study. In response to this need, the international partners of the WCRP developed GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Experiment) as a major focus of international study. The objectives of GEWEX are challenging, particularly since the nature of water and energy exchange at the atmosphere-land surface is so dependent on a wide variety of geographic factors. No single comprehensive regional experiment can yield sufficient information to describe and characterize water and energy budgets. For this reason, the GEWEX effort to join atmospheric and hydrologic sciences is based on a research strategy that includes a number of regional studies across the world. The Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP), which has as its objective the characterization of water and energy cycling in the Mississippi Basin, is one of the major GEWEX regional study areas. GCIP focuses on understanding annual, interannual, and spatial variability, the development and evaluation of regional coupled hydrologic/atmospheric models, the development of data assimilation schemes, and the development of accessible, comprehensive data bases. Improved water resource management on seasonal to interannual time scales is a key GCIP goal.

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities The United States provides scientific expertise, leadership, and resources to ensure that WCRP research programs continue to be some of the most successful research programs in the earth sciences. In the case of GCIP, a major international study within the boundaries of North America, U.S. vision and commitment are essential. In achieving GCIP objectives, we improve our ability to predict future climate change and variability globally, while substantially improving our ability to assess the nature of climate and hydrologic variability within the U.S. Thus, our contributions have international significance while being of immense practical importance to our nation. We can expect GCIP to yield a number of clear, practical accomplishments in addition to improved capability to manage water and water resources. GCIP objectives specifically address the requirements needed to improve regional predictions. Regional predictions are of critical importance in assessing the impacts of climate variability and climate change. This report of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Panel provides both leadership and vision by clearly reviewing our progress to date and by describing the opportunities for future progress. Eric J. Barron Co-chair Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities Preface A review of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental Scale International Project (GCIP) is provided in this report. The concept of GCIP was conceived in 1990 as the United States' contribution to the overall scientific strategy of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and GEWEX. As the first of the five Continental Scale Experiments (CSE), GCIP was established to quantitatively determine the hydrologic cycle and energy fluxes of the Mississippi River basin. The other continental-scale experiments will have similar objectives but for different geographic regions. The development and evaluation of coupled hydrologic-atmospheric models at resolutions appropriate to large-scale continental basins are critical to the successful achievement of the GCIP goal. The resulting coupled models will assist scientists and engineers in testing scenarios and making predictions which are more relevant at scales useful for water resources management, including drought and flood risk assessments. Our review of the GCIP program shows that, while a great deal of progress has been made, the linking of hydrologic processes at different temporal and spatial scales remains a complex problem. It is encouraging to observe that both the atmospheric and hydrologic communities further recognize that an interdisciplinary approach and joint cooperation are required to ensure progress in developing advanced schemes which represent the hydrologic cycle in coupled models. Additional progress will also require improvement in the use of available measurement technologies for precipitation, surface radiation fluxes, wind and humidity, and soil moisture. A number of remote-sensing observation programs being planned by the international community and scheduled for launch in the first decade of the new millennium [i.e., NASA's Earth Observing Satellites

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities (EOS)] will greatly enhance the opportunity for progress in this area. However, realization of the full potential of these new measurements will require planning and cooperation among scientists and agencies. Participation by NASA, NOAA, NSF, and USGS is particularly important. It is imperative that GCIP's scientific contributions not be viewed in a purely disciplinary context, because GCIP was intended primarily to be an interdisciplinary program. The GEWEX Panel realizes that there are many other critical and high-priority, single-discipline hydrologic and atmospheric problems which are not addressed under the GCIP research program. For example, improvements in cloud-resolving models and modeling of rainfall-runoff processes are but two of such critical problems. Further progress in rainfall-runoff models, for instance, is critical for accurate catchment-scale flood prediction and water resources management purposes. GCIP researchers must be ready to apply these advances when they become available. In addition, initial reports from a series of climate assessment workshops being held throughout the United States indicate that interdisciplinary studies directed at water resources are one of the primary needs in most regions of the country. Therefore, improvements of operational hydrologic and water resources management tools are critical in helping to bring global and GCIP/GEWEX-scale climate predictions down to a scale important for addressing local and regional water resources issues. The directions outlined in this report will assist agencies in implementing efforts toward meeting these critical needs. Finally, on behalf of all panel members I wish to acknowledge the contributions of many colleagues during the course of this review: S. Benjamin, E. Berbery, R. Carbone, H. Gupta, B. Imam, Z. Janjic, R. Lawford, J. Leese, D. Lettenmaier, K. Mitchell, M. Moncrieff, E. Rasmusson, H. Ritchie, J. Schaake, D.-J. Seo, J. Shuttleworth, E. Wood, and Q. Zhao. I would also like to offer special acknowledgment on behalf of the GEWEX panel to the following staff of the National Research Council: William Sprigg, Frank Eden, Peter Schultz, and Kelly Norsingle. Soroosh Sorooshian Chair, GEWEX Panel

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Wilfried Brutsaert, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York Thomas Dunne, University of California, Santa Barbara William L. Fisher, University of Texas, Austin Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis James Hurrell, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City The report was also reviewed by one reviewer who preferred to remain anonymous. While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1     INTRODUCTION   5 1   WATER AND ENERGY CYCLES   13     Background,   13     General Characteristics,   13     Balance Equations,   17     Diagnostic Methods,   19     Accomplishments,   22     Precipitation Estimation,   22     Radiative Flux Estimation,   23     Land-Atmosphere Interactions,   24     Atmospheric Water and Energy Transport,   25     Characterization of Random Variability of Precipitation and Soil Water,   25     Recommendations,   26 2   COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE MODELS   30     Atmospheric Models,   30     Land Surface Parameterizations,   31     Hydrologic Models,   33     Accomplishments,   34     Regional Focus,   34     Land Surface Parameterization Improvements,   35

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities     Project for Intercomparison of Land Surface Parameterization Schemes,   38     Other Model Improvements,   38     Recommendations,   39 3   DATA ASSIMILATION   43     Background,   43     GCIP Accomplishments,   44     Regional Model Analysis Archives,   44     Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS),   46     Precipitation,   48     Recommendations,   48 4   DATA COLLECTION AND MANAGEMENT   53     Background,   53     Accomplishments,   53     Special Data Sets,   53     Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Products,   55     Data Management and Service System,   55     Recommendations,   57 5   APPLICATION TO WATER RESOURCES   59     Background,   59     Management Issues,   59     Hydrological Models for Water Resources Management,   63     Deterministic Precipitation Runoff Models,   63     Statistically Based Hydrologic Models,   65     Accomplishment,   67     Recommendations,   67     REFERENCES   70     APPENDIXES     A   Background and Linkages,   79 B   Acronyms and Abbreviations,   90

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GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project: A Review of Progress and Opportunities GCIP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project

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