|
Items in cart [1] |
Questions? Call 888-624-8373 |
| Copyright © 2009. National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Terms of Use and Privacy Statement |
Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter.
Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page R1
Population
Growth and
Economic
Development:
Policy
Sons
Working Group on Population Growth
and Economic Development
Committee on Population
Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1986
OCR for page R2
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue NW Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineenng, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of
furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. 7 he Council operates in accordance
with general policies detained by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of
1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corpora-
tion. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Engineenng in the conduct of their services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly
by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineenng and the
Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences.
Library of Congress Cataloging Publication Data
Population growth and economic development.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. Developing countries Population. 2. Developing countries Economic conditions. I. Na-
tional Research Council (U.S.). Working Group on Population Growth and Economic Develop-
ment.
HB884.P6655 1986
ISBN 0-309-03641-0
304.6'09172'4 86-862
Cover photograph ~ Don Rutledge, Taurus Photos, Inc.
We gratefully acknowledge the assistance we received from the TyX Corporation, Reston,
Virginia, which provided access to electronic pagination and laser-pnnter technology for
producing camera copy.
Printed in the United States of Amenca.
First Priming, Marchl986
Second Priming, July 1988
Third Printing, December1989
Fourd~Prinung, Novemberl990
Fifth Printing, (October 1991
OCR for page R3
Working Group on Population Growth
and Economic Development
D. GALE JOHNSON (Cochair), Department of Economics, University of
Chicago
RONALD D. LEE (Cochair), Graduate Group in Demography, University
of California, Berkeley
NANCY BIRDSALL, Population, Health, and Nutrition Department, The
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
RODOLFO A. BULATAO, Population, Health, and Nutntion Department,
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EVA MUELLER, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan
SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
T. PAUL SCHULTZ, Department of Economics, Yale University
T. N. SRINIVASAN, Department of Economics, Yale University
ANNE D. WILLIAMS, Department of Economics, Bates College
KENNETH M. CHOMITZ, National Research Council Fellow
GEOFFREY GREENE, Research Associate
. . .
OCR for page R4
Committee on Population
1983-1985
EUGENE HAMMEL (Chair), Graduate Group in Demography, University
of California, Berkeley
RUDOLF ANDORKA, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest
NANCY BIRDSALL, Population, Health, and Nutrition Department, The
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
RODOLFO A. BULATAO, Population, Health, and Nutrition Department,
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
RONALD FREEDMAN, Population Studies Center, University of
Michigan
SIDNEY GOLDSTEIN, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown
University
PHILIP LEE, Institute of Health Policy Studies, University of California,
San Francisco ~
GEOFFREY MCNICOLL, Center for Policy Studies, The Population
Council, New York
JANE MENKEN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
ANN MILLER, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
JOAN NELSON, Overseas Development Council, Washington, D.C.
SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
GEORGE B. SIMMONS, Department of Health Planning and
Administration, University of Michigan
CHARLES F. WESTOFF, Office of Population Research, Princeton
University
ANNE D. WILLIAMS, Department of Economics, Bates College
ROBERT I. LAPHAM, Study Director
1V
OCR for page R5
Contents
Preface
Introduction
.... V11
1 Will slower population growth increase the growth
rate of per capita income through increasing per
capita availability of exhaustible resources?
2 Will slower population growth increase the growth
rate of per capita income through increasing per
capita availability of renewable resources? ....
3 Will slower population growth alleviate pollution
and the degradation of the natural environment?
4 Will slower population growth lead to more
capital per worker, thereby increasing per worker
output and consumption?
18
..... 35
... 40
OCR for page R6
V1
Do lower population densities lead to lower per
capita incomes via a reduced stimulus to
technological innovation and reduced exploitation
economies of scale in production and
infrastructure? ...............................
6 Will slower population growth increase per capita
levels of schooling and health? ..................
7 Will slower population growth decrease the degree
of inequality in the distribution of income?
Will slower population growth facilitate the
absorption of workers into the modern economic
sector and alleviate problems of urban growth?
9 Can a couple's fertility behavior impose costs on
society at large? .............................
Conclusion
References . . .
Index
CONTENTS
..... 47
.... 53
.. 62
..... 66
78
85
94
.... 105
OCR for page R7
Preface
This report summarizes evidence on the relationships between population
growth and economic development, concentrating on the developing nations.
Following an introduction that sets forth the problem, the report addresses nine
relevant and currently debated major questions bearing on these relationships
and then summarizes the conclusions in a final chapter.
In 1963 the Panel on Population Problems of the Committee on Science and
Public Policy of the National Academy of Sciences published a report entitled
The Growth of World Population. The appointment of that panel and the
publication of its report were expressions of concern then felt by scientists, as
well as by other informed persons in many countries, about the implications of
population trends. At that time, the most consequential trend was the pro-
nounced and long-continued acceleration in the rate of increase of the popula-
tion of the world, especially in the poorer countries. It was estimated in 1963
that the annual rate of increase of the global population had reached 2 percent,
a rate that would lead to a doubling of Me population every 35 years. The
disproportionate contribution of low-income areas to that acceleration was
caused by rapid declines in mortality combined with high fertility that re-
mained almost unchanged.
Since 1963, however, the peak of the rate of growth in the world's popula-
tion has been passed. A dramatic decline in the birth rate in almost all the
developed countries has lowered their aggregate annual rate of increase to well
below 1 percent, and the rate of increase has also declined in the developing
countries as a whole. In some low-income areas, a sham decline in fertility has
more than offset the growth-inducing effect of the generally continued reduc-
tion in the death rate, although the rate of population increase remains high in
many developing countries.
. .
V11
OCR for page R8
. . .
V111
PREFACE
Debate continued about the relationships between population growth and
economic development. The National Academy of Sciences, through a study
committee of the Office of the Foreign Secretary chaired by Roger Revelle,
and with support from the Agency for International Development (AID),
examined the issue and in 1971 published a two-volume report entitled Rapid
Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications.
A dozen years later, in response to the ongoing debate about population
growth, associated especially with the publication of several major works
discussed in the introduction to this report, AID again asked the Academy to
undertake an assessment. The Rockefeller Foundation and the William and
Flora Hewlett Foundation also supported the work, as did the National Acade-
my of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering through the NRC
Fund.* With this support, the report presented here was prepared by the
Working Group on Population Growth and Economic Development of the
Committee on Population. The report follows a series of publications by the
predecessor Committee on Population and Demography, which evaluated
evidence on levels and trends of fertility and mortality in selected developing
nations, worked on the improvement of technologies for estimating fertility
and mortality where only incomplete or inadequate data existed, and evaluated
the factors determining the changes in birth rates in developing countnes. (A
list of reports produced under this work Dro~rarn is found on the inside back
, ~
cover.)
This report considers the consequences of population growth for economic
systems. Historically, the issue originated as one of concern for the deleterious
consequences of rapid population growth: some analysts clearly saw disaster in
the offing if the then-current rates of growth continued; others saw no problem
at all. Those positions which might be called the extreme environmentalist
and extreme mercantilist views-are considered herein, as well as the more
moderate positions favored by many scholars. This report finds little support
for either the most alarmist or the most complacent views concerning the
economic effects of population grown.
The Working Group on Population Growth and Economic Development
The National Research Council (NRC) Fund is a pool of private, discretionary, nonfederal funds
that is used to support a program of Academy-initiated studies of national issues in which science and
technology figure significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from a consortium of private
foundations including the Carnegie Corporation of New Yorlc, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; the
Academy Industry Program, which seeks annual contributions from companies that are concerned with
the health of U.S. science and technology and with public policy issues with technological content; and
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering endowments.
OCR for page R9
PREFACE
1X
also commissioned a group of background papers that cover in technical detail
the topics summarized here; these are cited throughout. In addition, a second
activity of the Committee on Population, the Working Group on Family
Planning Effectiveness, is completing a major assessment on what is known
about the operation and management of family planning programs in the
developing world.
In carrying out its mandate, the Working Group on Population Growth and
Economic Development met several times and conducted a workshop to
review early drafts of background papers and to begin to synthesize the
findings for this report. Several authors of the papers attended the workshop
along with working group members. The committee and the National Research
Council are grateful to these authors and especially to the members of the
working group for their diligence in struggling with complex issues. All the
working group members contributed ideas and reactions as the report pro-
gressed through many drafts. Particular appreciation is due to working group
member Samuel Preston, who had principal responsibility for the initial
drafting of the report; to cochair Ronald D. Lee and research associate
Geoffrey Greene, who were also instrumental in early drafts of the report; and
to Kenneth M. Chomitz, NRC fellow, who assisted with the drafting and
coordination of the final text.
Thanks are also expressed to the other members of the committee staff, who
helped organize the working group and provided necessary support throughout
the project. These include Robert J. Lapham and Peter J. Donaldson, study
directors at the beginning and end of the project; Diane Lindley, research
assistant; and Cheryl Halley, administrative secretary. In addition, Eugenia
Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education, and Elaine McGarraugh, production editor,
applied their unusual editorial talents to the report.
The committee is grateful to all the working group members and committee
staff for their efforts on this report.
Eugene Hammel, Chair
Committee on Population
OCR for page R10
OCR for page R11
Population
Growth and
Economic
Development:
PoUcy
~1 t
OCR for page R12
