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PHYSICS THROUGH THE 1990s
An Overview
Physics Survey Committee
Board on Physics and Astronomy
Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1986
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of
the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to
procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the
National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences
in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's
purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council
operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the
authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a
private, nonprofit, self- governing membership corporation. The Council has become the
principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the
Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Physics through the 1990s: An overview
(Physics through the 1990s)
Includes index.
1. Physics. I. National Research Council (U.S.).
Physics Survey Committee. II. Series.
QC21.2.P4794 1986 530'.072073 85-30999
1SBN 0-309-03578-3, soft cover
ISBN 0-309-03581-3, hard cover
Printed in the United States of America
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PHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE
WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN, Sandia National Laboratories, Chairman
JOSEPH CERNY, University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence
Berkeley Laboratory
RONALD c. DAVIDSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN M. DAWSON, University Of California, LOS Angeles
MILDRED s. DRESSEEHAUS, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology
VAL L. FITCH, Princeton University
PAUL A. FLEURY, AT&T Bell Laboratories
WILLIAM A. FOWLER, w. K. Kellogg Radiation Laboratory
THEODOR w. HANSCH, Stanford University
VINCENT JACCARINO, University of California, Santa Barbara
DANIEL KEEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
AEEXE! A. MARADUDIN, University of California, Irvine
PETER D. MACD. PARKER, Yale University
MARTIN L. PERK, Stanford University
WATT w. WEBB, Cornell University
DAVID T. WILKINSON, Princeton University
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Sta.ffDirector
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Sta~Of~cer
CHARLES K. REED, Consultant
. . .
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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
HANS FRAUENFEEDER, University Of Illinois, Chairman
FELIX H. BOEHM, California Institute of Technology
RICHARD G. BREWER, IBM San Jose Research Laboratory
DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
JAMES E. GUNN, Princeton University
LEO p. KADANOFF, The University of Chicago
w. CARE LINEBERGER, University of Colorado
NORMAN F. RAMSEY, Harvard University
MORTON s. ROBERTS, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARSHALL N. ROSENBEUTH, University of Texas at Austin
WILLIAM p. SEICHTER, AT&T Bell Laboratories
SAM B. TREIMAN, Princeton University
DONALD c. SHAPERO, Sta~Director
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Sta~O.fficer
HELENE PATTERSON, Sta~Assistant
SUSAN WYATT, Sta~Assistant
1V
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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS,
AND RESOURCES
HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Chairman
THOMAS D. BARROW, Standard Oil Company (Retired)
ELKAN R. BLOUT, Harvard Medical School
WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University
BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University
CHARLES L. DRAKE, Dartmouth College
MILDRED s. DRESSEEHAUS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOSEPH L. FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of
Virginia
JAMES c. FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh
WILLIAM A. FOWLER, California Institute of Technology
GERHART FRIEDEANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory
EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
MARY L. GOOD, Signal Research Center
J. Ross MACDONALD, University of North Carolina
THOMAS F. MALONE, Saint Joseph College
CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey
PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University
WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS, Mallinckrodt, Inc.
ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado
JOHN D. SPENGEER, Harvard School of Public Health
GEORGE w. WETHERIEL, Carnegie Institution of Washington
RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director
LAWRENCE E. MCCRAY, Associate Executive Director
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Contents
FOREWORD
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
SUMMARY
Background, I
Physics and the Nation, 2
Universities and Small-Group Research, 3
Large Facilities and Major Programs, 3
Supporting Physics Research, 4
Manpower, 4
International Position of U.S. Physics, 5
1 PHYSICS AND SOCIETY
2 PROGRESS IN PHYSICS
Introduction, 11
Elementary-Particle Physics, I I
Nuclear Physics, 12
V11
. . .
. X111
XV
. . XVI
. 1
. 11
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· · —
Vlll CONTENTS
Condensed-Matter Physics, :13
Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physics, 13
Plasma Physics, 14
Cosmology, Gravitation, and Cosmic Rays, 14
Interfaces and Applications, 15
The Unity of Physics, 15
Progress in Particle Physics, IS
Quarks and Leptons as Elementary Particles, IS
Unification of the Forces of Nature, 20
Progress in Nuclear Physics, 21
Progress in Condensed-Matter Physics, 24
Surfaces, Interfaces, and Artificially Structured
Materials, 24
Phase Transitions and Disordered Systems, 25
Progress in Atomic, Molecular, and Optical
Physics, 28
Progress in Plasma and Fluid Physics, 31
Progress in Plasma Physics, 31
Fusion, 32
Space Plasmas, 34
Fluid Physics, 35
Progress in Gravitation, Cosmology, and
Cosmic-Ray Physics, 35
Gravitational Physics, 35
Cosmology, 37
Cosmic-Ray Physics, 38
Interfaces and Applications, 39
Interface Activities, 39
Chemistry, 39; Biophysics, 40; Geophysics, 40; Materials
Science, 41
Applications, 42
Energy and the Environment, 42; Medicine, 42; National
Security, 43; Industry, 43
3 MAINTAINING EXCELLENCE.
The Funding Process, 45
Educating the Next Generation of Physicists, 46
Primary and Secondary Education, 46
Undergraduate Education, 47
. 44
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CONTENTS iX
Education at the Graduate Level, 48
Research in Small Groups, 49
Large Facilities and Major Programs, 53
Elementary-Particle Physics, 58
The Superconducting Super Collider, 58; Extensions of the
Capabilities of Existing Accelerators, 60; Support of
Existing and Extended Facilities, 61
Nuclear Physics, 61
The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility,
62; The Relativistic Nuclear Collider, 62; Extensions of
Existing Facilities, 62
Condensed-Matter Physics, 63
Synchrotron Radiation Facilities, 63; Neutron Facilities,
64; High Magnetic Fields, 65
Plasma Physics, 65
Magnetic Fusion Research, 65; Inertial Fusion
Research, 66
Space and Astrophysical Plasmas, 67
Gravitation, Cosmology, and Cosmic-Ray
Physics, 67
Search for Gravitational Radiation, 68; Relativity Gyro-
scope Experiment, 68; Vigorous Space Program in
Astrophysics, 68; Long-Duration Cosmic-Ray
Experiments, 69; Ground-Based Cosmic Rays, 69;
Neutr~no Astronomy, 69
Manpower and Excellence, 69
Policy Issues Connected with Maintaining
Excellence, 70
Role of Industry and Mission Agencies in Basic
Research, 71
Freedom of International Communication and
Exchange, 71
Computation and Data Bases, 72
Computers, 72
Data Bases, 73
SUPPLEMENT
1 INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF PHYSICS: THE U.S.
POSITION IN THE WORLD COMMUNITY . . . . 75
Expenditures for Scientific Research in the
United States and Abroad, 76
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x
CONTENTS
General Trends, 76
Trends in Specific Areas of Physics, 79
The U.S. Position in Basic Physics Research, 81
International Competition and Cooperation, 85
Increased Internationalization of the Physics
Community, 85
Scale and Costs, 85
Avoiding Duplication, 86
Maintaining Breadth and Depth in Forefront
Areas, 86
Freedom for Scientists and the Free Flow of
Information, 87
Education of Foreign Phys
United States, 87
Summary, 90
icists in the
SUPPLEMENT
2 EDUCATION AND SUPPLY OF PHYSICISTS .
Producing Trained Young Physicists A Historical
Overview, 92
Enrollments and Degrees: The Prolonged
Decline, 95
U.S. and Foreign Composition, 95
Women and Minorities, 95
Declining Enrollments in Physics Subfields, 98
Retention of Physics Degree Holders Mobility, 98
An Aging Community, 99
Changing Patterns of Employment, 101
Projections, 102
Demand Projections, 103
Academe, 103; Demand Scenarios Universities, 105;
Demand Scenarios~-Year Colleges, 105; Demand
Scenarios- Industrial and Other Nonacademic Sectors, 106
Supply Projections, 108
Physics Ph.D. Production, 109; Supply of Physics Ph.D.s:
1981-2001,111
The Demand-Supply Balance, ~14
Conclusion, II4
. 91
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CONTENTS X1
SUPPLEMENT
3 ORGANIZATION AND SUPPORT OF PHYSICS 115
The Diversity of Institutions for Research in
Physics, 115
Major Facilities and National Laboratories, 116
University Research, 117
Industrial Research, 117
The Complementary Roles of Our Research
Institutions, 118
Funding Support for Physics Research, 119
Organization and Decision Making, 135
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
GLOSSARY OF PHYSICAL TERMS
APPENDIX A: PANEL MEMBERS
INDEX
·
· ·
. 139
. 142
.
157
.161
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Foreword
PHYSICS THROUGH THE 1990s is an eight-volume survey of
physics that documents the extraordinary accomplishments of physi-
cists over the decade since the last such survey was completed. The
survey also assesses opportunities for the next decade and addresses
some of the obstacles that must be overcome if those opportunities are
to be realized.
The breadth and diversity of physics as portrayed in these volumes
is truly breathtaking. Physics examines phenomena across an enor-
mous range, from the subatomic to the cosmic. It is concerned with
fundamental questions about the origins of the universe and the struc-
ture of matter that have applications in virtually all human endeavors.
Progress in physics has touched almost every science and every aspect
of industry and technology with new ideas, new instruments and
techniques, and new applications.
Our whole picture of the nature of space and time and the elementary
building blocks of matter is undergoing revolutionary change; the pace
of revelations has accelerated with each passing year so that the
productivity and accomplishments of physics have outstripped the
most ambitious hopes of physicists of a decade ago.
The development of new physics-based imaging technologies is
ushering in a new era in medicine in which physiological functions can
be mapped out with precision and in exquisite detail without even
touching the patient. New techniques in solid-state physics, in which
. . .
x~
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XiV FOREWORD
semiconductor devices can be tailored on the atomic scale, promise to
introduce a new generation of high-speed devices that will form the
basis for smaller, faster, and less costly computers of the future.
It is unfortunate, in a sense, that these unique advances of physics
should be occurring at a time of budgetary constraint that will affect the
nation's scientific enterprise in many ways. But this conjunction of
events does not detract from the value of the survey. Decisions must be
made about the direction of scientific programs even in difficult times;
what is more, the budgetary problems will eventually be overcome. In
any case, those who direct our scientific research efforts will always
require a clear picture of the state of the fields of science.
I commend this overview volume to you as a presentation of the full
panoply of scientific accomplishments and opportunities of physics.
The conclusions and recommendations of this volume merit thoughtful
consideration by decision makers concerned with physics and its
application in academe, industry, and the federal government. The
story it tells, fascinating in itself, cannot fail to fill us with expectations
of even more spectacular accomplishment in the coming decades.
FRAN K PRESS, Chairman
National Research Council
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Preface
The Physics Survey Committee took as its task to carry out a
research assessment of the major fields of physics. The purpose of the
assessment is to review the developments that have taken place since
the last survey and to highlight research opportunities. This task is one
of considerable scope, as the eight volumes that constitute the Physics
Survey attest. In addition to this Overview, the volumes include
Atomic, Molecular, and Optical Physic s; Condensed-Matter Physics;
Elementary-Particle Physics; Gravitation, Cosmology, and Cosmic-
Ray Physics; Nuclear Physics; Plasmas and Fluids; and Scientific
Interfaces and Technological Applications. These volumes document a
physics enterprise that is vital, creative, and productive.
A number of critical questions emerged in the course of the assess-
ment effort, including the following: What are the areas of physics that
showed the greatest progress over the past decade? What are the
problems of educating the next generation of physicists? Will physics
continue to provide the scientifically and technologically trained man-
power required by our society? What is the U.S. position in the world
physics community? Does our scientific support system still support
excellence, in small projects and large? These questions are addressed
in the present volume, Physics Through the 1990s: An Overview.
WILLIAM F. BRINKMAN, Chairman
Physics Survey Committee
xv
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Acknowledgments
The Physics Survey Committee acknowledges the contributions of
the many groups that helped to complete the survey: the panel
members (listed in Appendix A of this report); federal agencies listed
below for assistance in developing data for Supplement 3; Beverly
Fearn Porter and Roman Czujko of the American Institute of Physics
for their help in preparing Supplement 2 on education and manpower;
the National Research Council's Board on Physics and Astronomy and
its staff for advice and assistance in carrying out the study; and
Jacqueline Boraks for editing and preparing the final manuscripts for
publication.
The Board on Physics and Astronomy is pleased to acknowledge
generous support for the Physics Survey from the Department of
Energy, the National Science Foundation, the Department of Defense,
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of
Commerce, the American Physical Society, Coherent (Laser Products
Division), General Electric Company, General Motors Foundation,
and International Business Machines Corporation.
xv
