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OCR for page 119
119
Benefit-cost analysis can be used over a broad spectrum
of projects and at different levels of detail. The scope of
this study should cover highway projects ranging from
individual intersection improvements and Transportation
Systems Management (TSM) projects to major road up-
gradings and construction of new roads connecting to the
interstate or other major facilities. Comprehensive life-
cycle cost evaluation techniques should also be included.
The focus of the effort will be directed to analyses at the
project level and its immediate area impacts rather than
at a highway system level.
Task 1. Review the literature for procedures used in
highway user benefit-cost and related noise and air pol-
lution emission analyses and identify sources of support
data for use in the determination of vehicle operating
costs, accident reduction benefits, travel-time values, and
any other appropriate factors.
Task 2. Assess the support data and procedures iden-
tified in Task 1 and select for inclusion in the computer
program those most appropriate in terms of their cur-
rency, completeness, general use, and ease of updating.
In addition, provide a comparative analysis of the selected
procedures with those found in the 1977 AASHTO Man-
ual on User Benef t Analysis of Highway and Bus Transit
Improvements.
Task 3. Develop procedures for updating support data
to the current analysis year, and propose default values
where appropriate.
Task 4 Develop a preliminary design for the micro-
computer program that accurately reflects the anticipated
context and degree of user friendliness. The design should
address at least the following: screen layouts, menus, input
requirements and procedures from the user and from
support data sources, modular structure, process flow
diagrams, and output formats and compatibility. In ad-
dition, develop a preliminary design for a program vali-
dation plan, a user's manual, and program documentation
report.
Task 5. Prepare and submit to NCHRP an interim
report on Tasks 1 through 4. NCHRP approval is required
before subsequent tasks are initiated.
Task 6. Develop the comprehensive user friendly soft-
ware, adapting the selected techniques to microcomputer
use. The program should contain at least the following
features:
a. Capability to conduct life-cycle cost analysis.
b. Both default values and user-provided data input
capability.
c. Procedures for updating support data and parameter
values to the analysis year.
d. Informative error messages.
e. Capability to operate on a fully IBM-compatible
microcomputer at a reasonable speed, in a portable
and commonly available language that does not re-
quire additional end user hardware or software ac
. . .
qu~s~t~on.
Task 7. Validate the software using the validation plan
identified in Task 4. The purpose of the validation plan
is to ensure that all calculations are performed correctly
with adequate checking of data, parameter values, and
ranges. Prepare a program validation report that: (a) de-
scribes the methodology used in developing the validation
plan, (b) provides a description of the test data sets used
to validate the computer program, and (c) documents the
results obtained by "hand" and by the computer program.
Task 8. Prepare a user's manual, a program docu-
mentation report, and a brief, applications-oriented
primer on benefit-cost analysis and economic evaluation
of highway user benefits.
Task 9. Provide to five states selected by the NCHRP
copies of the software, documentation developed in Tasks
7 and 8, and all other necessary materials to test the
implementation capabilities of the software. These states
will critique the materials provided and transmit written
evaluations to the contractor who will make necessary
modifications to the program and documentation.
Task 10. Prepare a final report documenting the re-
search effort. It should contain the modified applications-
oriented primer; a description of the computer program
and its application, including examples; the user's manual;
and the program documentation report including the ex-
ecutable program and its source code.
AREA 8: FORECASTING
Project 8-1 FY '64
Social and Economic Factors Affecting Travel
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Vogt, Ivers and Associates
Robert S. Vogt
February 1, 1964
September 23, 1966
$94,558
The purpose of this research was to develop means of
estimating intercity travel using known traffic volumes
and available economic and social data between selected
cities and testing it by application to other pairs of cities
between which travel is also known.
Knowledge gained by this research is useful to trans-
portation planners and design engineers. Extensive use of
electronic computers and existing computer programs to
extract and classify summarized pertinent origin-desti-
nation data from existing studies has been accomplished.
A nationwide network has been produced for trip distri-
bution purposes. More than 3,000 centroids representing
each county or county equivalent with basic population,
employment, income, bank deposit, and other social-eco-
nomic information have been assigned. The centroids are
connected by links representing the highway system. Ex-
ternal O-D data were acquired and processed for 22 cities
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120
in Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Missouri. From these data,
regression analyses were run to test various equation
forms and the correlation between variables, combination
of variables, and transformation of variables for total trips
and for trips by purpose. The trips predicted from the
regression equations have been compared to actual survey
trips.
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 70, "Social and Economic Factors Affecting
Travel."
Project 8-2 FY '64 and FY '65
Factors Influencing Modal Trip Assignment
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
IIT Research Institute
Dr. F. C. Bock
February 1, 1964
August 31, 1966
$298,033
The intent of this research was to improve methods of
assigning urban area traffic to the various modes of travel.
It involved the identifying of factors underlying choice
of travel mode, the determination of the relationships of
these factors, and also the development of a method of
analysis and forecasting. Methods were tested and found
to be practicable for use under real-life conditions. Such
methods would be applicable in making better trip as-
signments in urban transportation systems.
The project report contains a survey of existing modal
split models, and analysis of five metropolitan areas hav-
ing rail rapid transit, a study of factors influencing choice
in travel mode, and prediction models for modal choice
based on discriminant functions with a comparison of
reported trips and computed paths.
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 57, "Factors Influencing Modal Trip Assign-
ment."
Project 8-3 FY '64
Individual Preferences for Various Means of
Transportation
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
University of Pennsylvania
Dr. Russell L. Ackoff
February 1, 1964
March 31, 1965
$63,282
This project was designed to probe individuals' trans-
portation preferences as contrasted to the more objective
studies that Project 8-2 is concerned with. It was expected
that the research would develop additional knowledge as
to why and under what conditions persons will use or
shift from one form of transportation to another. Better
information and estimating bases are needed in order to
obtain broad community agreement on plans for transit
and highway improvement.
The final report was not published; however, microfiche
of the report may be purchased (see final page of this
section for ordering information).
Project 8-4 FY '65
Criteria for Evaluating Alternative Transpor-
tation Plans
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Northwestern University
Dr. Edwin N. Thomas
Dr. Joseph L. Schofer
February 1, 1965
August 1, 1967
$89,900
This project was intended to identify and evaluate the
broad array of factors which should be considered in
making an intelligent choice among alternative transpor-
tation plans. A system for using these factors should be
devised.
The multi-volume report consists of a section in three
parts entitled "Strategies for the Evaluation of Alternative
Transportation Plans," and a section entitled "Evaluation
of Engineering Projects Using Perceptions of and Pref-
erences for Project Characteristics."
In response to comments of the project panel, some
additional material was found to be desirable to be added
to the final report. Certain modifications were deemed
necessary to relate the findings of the research more
closely to the immediate needs of transportation planners.
A continuation contract was executed under NCHRP
Project 8-4A for the purpose of modifying the final report
for publication.
Project 8-4A FY '65
Criteria for Evaluating Alternative Transpor-
tation Plans
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
University of Illinois
Dr. Joseph L. Schofer
October 14, 1968
January 10, 1969
$5,000
See Project 8-4 for objective of the research.
To improve the flow of ideas throughout the document,
the final report of Project 8-4 was modified. In addition,
more extensive descriptions of strategies for treating
streams of cost and effectiveness indicators were prepared
and integrated into the text. Also, several illustrative ex-
amples of the application of cost-effectiveness analysis to
transportation-plan evaluation were prepared to demon-
strate the use of the methodology, as well as to support
some of the broader concepts described in the final report.
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 96, "Strategies for the Evaluation of Alternative
Transportation Plans."
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Project 8-5 FY '65 and FY '68
Transportation Aspects of ·and-Use ControIs
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Victor Gruen Associates
Harold Marks
April 1, 1965 Aug. 7, 1967
May 31, 1966 Jan. 15, 1970
$25,967 $99,571
The objective of this research was to provide a better
understanding of the effectiveness of existing land-use
controls on the continuing utility of transportation sys-
tems.
A first technical report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 31, "A Review of Transportation Aspects of Land-
Use Control."
This project was continued to establish principles or
guidelines for developing land-use controls and other
techniques that will be stable and effective in the protec-
tion of highway utility. The research effort was conceptual
in nature and presented a variety of ideas and proposals
by which the highway investment can be protected. Some
of the guidelines were developed in considerable detail.
These can be incorporated into the procedures and prac-
tices of land-use and highway administrators. Other prin-
ciples were developed as a base from which more detailed
analyses can be undertaken.
The project report discusses basic interrelationships be-
tween transportation facilities and land use and how such
relationships can cause transportation facility break-
downs. The effects of changing land-use controls on the
utility of highways are discussed, with special attention
being given to large traffic generators located near freeway
interchanges.
The continuation research has been completed, and the
project report has been published as: NCHRP Report
121, "Protection of Highway Utility."
Project 8-6 FY ,66
Individual Preferences for Alternative DwelI-
ing Types and Environments
Research Agency: University of North Carolina
Principal Invest.: F. Stuart Chapin, Jr.
Elective Date: February 14, 1966
Completion Date: March 13, 1968
behavior which will have the capability of dealing with
both the mobility and choice processes as components of
residential changes.
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 81, "Moving Behavior and Residential Choice-
A National Survey."
Project 8-7 FY ,69
Evaluation of Data Requirements and Collec-
tion Techniques for Transportation Plan
neng
Research Agency: Creighton-Hamburg
Principal Invest.: Roger L. Creighton
Elective Date: September 13, 1968
Completion Date: August 28, 1970
Funds: $190,000
The purpose of the research project was to see what
data were needed, first, for the basic transportation plan-
ning process such as was required to be undertaken for
metropolitan areas by the Highway Act of 1962, and,
second, for new kinds of transportation planning that are
developing. A very limited number of transportation stud-
ies were selected for careful and detailed data analysis to
establish recommendations on guidelines for data require-
ments and collection techniques. The project defined data
requirements for both basic and continuing urban trans-
portation studies with regard to travel, transportation
facility, land-use, and socioeconomic data. Sensitivity
analysis was performed to examine variations of the trans-
portation data for assessing the impact that data errors
have on the output of the transportation planning process.
The research included a comprehensive study of the
transportation planning process in five cities to determine
data collected, how they were used for planning and re-
search, and their times and costs. Sensitivity tests of these
data were conducted. Studies of data needs for new types
of transportation-planning processes and alternate means
of collecting data were also undertaken. Research was
conducted on data needs of related planning processes,
such as TOPICS Planning and Transit Planning.
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 120, "Data Requirements for Metropolitan Trans-
portation Planning."
Funds: $99 897
' Project 8-7A FY ,71
In predicting the future demand for transportation, it
is imperative that future densities of residential areas be
projected. In order that this may be done with confidence,
a better understanding must be acquired for the prefer
ences of various housing types and environments.
The project report deals with a summary of findings
on housing choice of the households interviewed; an anal
ysis of the residential mobility process; an analysis of the
housing-choice process; and, drawing on these analyses,
a discussion of the elements needed for a model of moving
Data Requirements and Transportation Plan-
ning Procedures in Small Urban Areas
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
University of Tennessee
Dr. William L. Grecco
June 1, 1973
June 14, 1975
$98,005
The initial focus of this research was to develop a
simplified transportation planning process for small urban
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areas of less than 250,000 population that is sufficiently
flexible so that travel forecasts can be based on a small-
sample home-interview survey or simulation. It was found
that the existing standardized procedures were incom-
patible with the possible variations in the nature of the
problems, available resources, and expectations of the
participants. The digest of responses from the small urban
areas examined typifies the difficulty faced when attempt-
ing to adapt the planning problem to the planning process,
rather than fitting the process to the specific problem.
The need for a customization of planning procedures was
established, and the current organizational framework
and technical practices in both land-use and transporta-
tion planning were evaluated from that standpoint.
Land-use planning in small communities was found to
be highly standardized in format and content, but not in
procedures, which varied significantly in terms of so-
phistication. It was found to be appropriate for planners
to forego elaborate procedures in favor of various hand
methods that are heavily dependent on the planner's
knowledge of the community and the exercise of profes-
sional judgment in an ad hoc, or opportunistic, fashion.
The transportation planning procedures appeared to be
relatively more standardized.
The research identified and presented four types of
transportation planning techniques for application in
small urban areas: (a) network simulation based on syn-
thetic models and a small-sample household survey, (b)
consumer-oriented transit planning procedure, (c) simple
techniques for corridor analysis, and (d) hand-computa-
tion-oriented procedure for estimating localized impacts
of major traffic generators. Existing techniques were re-
viewed and tested (to varying levels) within each category.
Examples include cross-classification and synthetic
models, corridor-growth traffic-forecasting models, use of
work-trip data from employers to update continuing
transportation studies, development of a consumer-ori-
ented approach to determining local transit needs and
providing activity-center traffic estimates to assist in as-
sessing the localized impact of land-use changes on the
transportation system.
Research has been completed, and the project has been
published as: NCHRP Report 167, "Transportation Plan-
ning for Small Urban Areas."
Project 8-8(1) FY '69
The Impact of Highways upon Environmental
Values (Study Design)
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Massachusetts Institute of Technol-
ogy
Dr. Marvin L. Manheim
September 16, 1968
March 14, 1969
$29,654
The increased emphasis on social and esthetic values
has focused attention on the need for improving integra-
tion of the highway with the community.
The scope of this project was to develop an independent
study design to be used as the research plan for the second-
phase work. The study design was completed, and the
report received but not published.
Refer to Project 8-8~3) for description of the over-all
project objectives and details of the second phase of this
study.
Project 8-8(2) FY ,69
The Impact of Highways upon Environmental
Values (Study Design)
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Daniel, Mann, Johnson & Menden-
hall
S. R. Sludiko~
September 9, 1968
March 7, 1969
$28,950
The increased emphasis on social and esthetic values
has focused attention on the need for improving integra-
tion of the highway with the community.
The scope of this project was to develop an independent
study design to be used as the research plan for the second-
phase work. The study design was completed, and the
report received but not published.
Refer to Project 8-8~3) for description of the over-all
project objectives and details of the second phase of this
study.
Project 8-8(3) FY '69
The Impact of Highways upon Environmental
Values
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Massachusetts Institute of Technol-
ogy
Dr. Marvin L. Manheim
September 15, 1969
July 31, 1974
$470,000
The increasing emphasis on social and environmental
values has focused attention on the need for improving
integration of a transportation facility with both the nat-
Oral and the human environment. To achieve desirable
levels of integration, research was programmed by
AASHTO to (a) develop a practical method for evaluating
the immediate and long-term effects of highways on the
social and environmental considerations of communities
and (b) test, evaluate, and refine the method by applying
it to specific cases covering a range of situations. Because
the design process must maximize the probability that
significant community values will be considered, even if
the state of the art does not allow all of these values to
be measured quantitatively or precisely, the research em-
phasizes development of an approach in the context of
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123
the location process. Although the scope encompasses all
types of highways, the study findings are applicable to all
types of transportation facilities, many other public works
projects, and all phases of planning.
In the initial phase, funded in 1969, MIT prepared a
study design that served as the working plan to develop
a pragmatic approach to the problem. The conclusion to
the first phase was an unpublished draft report, "Com-
munity Values in Highway Location and Design: A Pro-
cedural Guide."
The second and final phase included (1) working with
selected State highway departments to implement the pro-
posed approach and adapt it to specific situations; (2)
extending the approach for use in metropolitan area and
statewide multimodal, systems-level planning; (3) extend-
ing, testing, and refining the techniques set forth in the
draft Procedural Guide; and (4) revising the Procedural
Guide to reflect the additional knowledge.
The approach developed recognizes and considers ten
elements basic to the consideration of environmental and
social values in transportation planning. They are:
(1) Differential erects.
(2) Community values.
(3) Community interaction.
(4) Evaluation and reporting.
(5) Consideration of alternatives.
(6) Identification of impacts and affected interests.
(7) Process management.
(8) Interrelation of system and process planning.
(9) Institutional arrangements and decision making.
(10) Implementation of the approach.
These elements are described in an overview and discussed
individually in detail. To assist in incorporating these
elements into the transportation planning process, specific
immediately implementable techniques that can be used
by transportation agencies are described. Most of the
techniques can be adopted individually without difficulty.
(They are intended for use in developing and evaluating
alternative transportation plans with the participation of
other state and federal agencies and local citizens and
officials.) Some of these techniques are already current
practice in some agencies. Several have been tried in other
professions; others have been recommended in the pub-
lished literature or were suggested in discussions with
federal and State highway officials. Many more stemmed
from direct observation of the problems transportation
. . .
agencies are lacing.
Research has been completed, and the project report
has been published as: NCHRP Report 156, "Transpor-
tation Decision-Making A Guide to Social and Envi-
ronmental Considerations."
The report is closely related to the requirements of the
Process Guidelines for the development of Environmental
Action Plans as specified in Volume 7, Chapter 1, Section
1 of the Federal Highway Administration's Federal-Aid
Highway Program Manual. It is structured to assist in
the revision and implementation of Action Plans. The
overview discussion of the ten elements is roughly anal-
ogous in scope and level of detail to the FHWA Process
Guidelines. The remaining sections of the report corre-
spond in many ways to the content of an Action Plan.
Project 8-9 FY '72
Comparative Economic Analysis of Alterna-
tive Multimodal Passenger Transportation
Systems
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Creighton-Hamburg
F. F. Frye
September 1, 1971
January 31, 1973
$ 100,000
The objective of this research was to develop improve-
ments and expansion of existing processes that evaluate
alternative multimodal transportation system plans.
These improvements were sought on the basis of increas-
ing the number of relevant criteria used in the evaluation
framework and ensuring that the measuring techniques
(economic evaluation criteria) developed represented ac-
curately the impacts of alternative transportation plans.
Research has been completed, and the project report
has been published as: NCHRP Report 146, "Alternative
Multimodal Passenger Transportation Systems Com-
parative Economic Analysis."
Project 8-10 FY '72
Planning and Design Guiclelines for Efficient
Bus Utilization of Highway Facilities
Research Agency: Wilbur Smith and Associates
Principal Invest.: Herbert S. Levinson
Elective Date: September 1, 1971
Completion Date: July 31, 1973
Funds: $ 149,907
This research was designed to develop a single reference
source of bus priority measures to increase the person-
carrying capacity of urban highways.
The interim report, "Bus Use of Highways State of
the Art," published as NCHRP Report 143, contains a
literature search and correlative analysis of more than
200 bus priority treatments throughout the world.
The final report, "Bus Use of Highways Planning and
Design Guidelines," published as NCHRP Report 155,
contains planning and design guidelines for efficient bus
use of highways based on the experience gained from the
literature search and state-of-the-art survey. It identifies
significant policy implications, contains relevant planning
criteria and warrants for various bus priority treatments,
suggests measures of effectiveness, presents bus design
parameters, and sets forth detailed planning and design
guidelines for both freeway-related and arterial-related
OCR for page 124
124
bus priority treatments and for terminals. For measuring
effectiveness, it was found that the variance of bus times
is an important descriptor of bus reliability.
To aid the designer, vehicle design and performance
characteristics are given, together with bus capacity con-
siderations. These include queue behavior parameters, bus
unloading and loading times, and bus capacity ranges.
Bus priority treatments should be complemented by
appropriate policies that encourage and reinforce transit
use, such as low bus fares, downtown commuter parking
supply and rate adjustments, and strict enforcement of
bus priority treatments. Within this policy framework,
that recognizes public transport as an essential commu-
nity service, various types of bus preferential treatments
can be applied to specific urban situations.
Project 8-11 FY '73, FY '76, and FY '77
Social, Economic, Environmental Conse-
quences of Not Constructing a Transpor-
tation Facility
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
DACP, Inc.
Jonathan S. Lane
Lance R. Grenzebach
September 16, 1974
November 30, 1979
$364,363
This project had as its general objective the strength-
ening of transportation impact assessment and evaluation
procedures; the mechanism for this was the no-action
alternative. The research was to define the no-action al-
ternative, determine its role in project evaluation and
impact assessment, and review techniques available for
assessing the impacts of no-action and other project al-
ternatives.
It was found that existing agency procedures regarding
the no-action alternative were inconsistent and confusing.
Definitions and role of the no-action alternative varied
widely. Reports on a plethora of impact assessment meth-
ods were scattered throughout the literature. From these
findings came the strong recommendation that the no-
action alternative be defined as the maintenance of exist-
ing facilities and services in the study corridor and region
and that the role of the no-action alternative be that of
a benchmark against which all other alternatives be eval-
uated and assessed.
A December 1975 two-volume interim report is avail-
able in microfiche and covers the then existing state of
the art: (a) illustrations of alternative definitions; (b) ex-
panded discussion and illustration of alternative methods
of plan evaluation and of techniques in current use for
social, economic, and environmental impact assessment;
and (c) reporting of the four case studies of facilities where
no-build decisions had been made (see final page of this
section for ordering information).
Research has been completed, and the project report
has been published in two volumes, as follows: NCHRP
Report 216, "The No-Action Alternative: Research Re-
port," highlights the findings of the research and docu-
ments the research activities, including summary reports
of case studies, surveys, and pilot program activities un-
dertaken with nine state agencies.
NCHRP Report 217, "The No-Action Alternative: Im-
pact Assessment Guidelines," details how the research
findings may be applied and provides recommended policy
and procedural changes to strengthen both assessment
and evaluation of all alternatives, presents the recom-
mended approach for the definition and use of the no-
action alternative, and includes methods for assessing 13
categories of impacts and evaluating the results. Although
the recommendations may require adjustment and "tai-
loring" by each user agency, the net effect of the Guide-
lines should be to encourage standardization of practice
and more effective use of the no-action alternative.
Project 8-12 FY '75
Travel Estimation Procedures for Quick Re-
sponse to Urban Policy Issues
Research Agency: Metropolitan Washington Council
of Governments
Principal Invest.: George V. Wickstrom
Arthur B. Sosslau
Elective Date: September 3, 1974
Completion Date: December 31, 1975
Funds: $39,895
Most techniques for estimating urban travel demand
were developed to evaluate alternative transportation sys-
tems for an entire region. Application of these compre-
hensive techniques to provide timely answers to current
policy questions has proven very difficult. This research
effort was initiated to assemble and modify existing tech-
piques, as well as to develop new approaches, for use by
transportation planners faced with the need to be more
responsive to current issues.
Research has been completed, and the major findings
have been incorporated into the research report emanating
from Project 8-12A and published as: NCHRP Report
186, "Travel Estimation Procedures for Quick Response
to Urban Policy Issues."
Project 8-12A FY '75 and FY '76
Travel Estimation Procedures for Quick Re-
sponse to Urban Policy Issues
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Comsis Corporation
Arthur B. Sosslau
George V. Wickstrom
November 1, 1975
October 31, 1978
$239,33 1
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125
This continuation of Project 8-12 has provided a user's
guide of travel estimation techniques having quick re-
sponse capabilities. The techniques are applicable for use
by transportation and land-use planners, giving emphasis
to the impacts of land-use changes on transportation al-
ternatives and the magnitude of urban activities consistent
with differing levels of transportation service. Problems
of scale are addressed; e.g., the applicability of techniques
to regions, subregions, and corridors.
Detailed descriptions of manual techniques for use in
each aspect of travel demand estimation (i.e., trip gen-
eration, trip distribution, modal choice, auto occupancy,
time-of-day distribution, traffic assignment, capacity anal-
ysis, and development density versus highway spacing
relationships) were developed in this research. Numerous
charts, tales, and Homographs were prepared to simplify
each analysis step. Data requirements were also reduced
by making maximum use of transferable parameters de-
veloped from other studies and urban areas. Three sce-
nario applications of the manual techniques were
conducted to illustrate the potential usefulness of the var-
ious analysis techniques. The presentation of the proce-
dures in the final report is structured to allow their
utilization by transportation planners with various levels
of experience.
Instructional materials for use in training sessions or
workshops were developed based on the manual tech-
niques described in the user's guide. These materials in-
clude more than 400 slides, 50 transparencies, an
instructor's notebook, and a student's notebook. The
training package is available from NCHRP on loan upon
written request or may be purchased. Requests should be
directed to NCHRP.
The research report and user's guide have been pub-
lished, respectively, as: NCHRP Report 186, "Travel Es-
timation Procedures for Quick Response to Urban Policy
Issues," and NCHRP Report 187, "Quick-Response Ur-
ban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Pa-
rameters User's Guide."
Project 8-13 FY '75
Disaggregate Travel Demand Models
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Charles River Associates
William B. Tye
September 15, 1974
January 31, 1976
$ 100,000
The over-all objective of this research was to develop,
in separately funded phases extending over several years,
operational travel demand forecasting models consistent
with travel choice behavior and with coefficients estimated
by use of data at the level of households or individual
travelers. It was anticipated that such models will form
the basis of improved travel demand estimation proce-
dures.
Models were developed in Phase I using Pittsburgh and
Minneapolis/St. Paul data bases. Binary logit models
were estimated for (1) the mode choice for work, (2) the
mode choice for shopping, (3) the destination choice for
shopping, and (4) the trip frequency choice for shopping.
A report, "Disaggregate Travel Demand Models: Phase
I Report," presents the major findings and is available in
microfiche (see final page of this section for ordering
information). In the report, the models are appraised in
terms of their advantages in travel demand analysis, their
low data collection costs, their transferability, and their
flexibility in application. Several hypothetical applications
are provided.
Research was continued as Project 8-13~2~.
Project 8-13~2) FY ,77
Disaggregate Travel Demand Models
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Affective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Charles River Associates, Inc.
William B. Tye
May 1, 1976
December 31, 1980
$200,000
This project was a continuation of Project 8-13. The
overall objective of the research was to develop opera-
tional travel demand forecasting models consistent with
travel choice behavior and with coefficients estimated by
use of data at the level of households or individual trav-
elers.
Phase II extended the Project 8-13 research program:
(1) to conduct one or more demonstrations of the dis-
aggregate models applied to policy issues at a state or
local planning agency; and (2) to determine an approach
to be used in solving problems that will be incurred in
application (such as application of disaggregate models
to aggregate data and aggregate forecasting). A worktrip
mode-choice model, developed with Pittsburgh, Pa., data
was used to predict the share of trips attracted to a new
park-and-express-ride bus service in Baltimore. The pre-
dicted ridership was approximately one-half of the ob-
served trips. The application uncovered potential pitfalls
in the application of disaggregate models, particularly
when using aggregate data, that provided valuable infor-
mation for the preparation of recommendations in the
final report. To meet Objective 2, a market segmentation
approach was developed to overcome bias problems, when
aggregating from households to a subregion and when
using aggregate time and cost variables. The Phase II
report is available on microfiche (see final page of this
section for ordering information).
The project was concluded in a third phase in which
disaggregate models were developed for the work trip
using the Baltimore Disaggregate Data Set. Guidance on
the transferability of these models together with those
developed previously using Pittsburgh and Twin Cities
(MN) data sets is provided in a final report intended as
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an "entry point" for transportation planners interested in
applying disaggregate models. In addition to transfera-
bility, guidance is given on other impediments to the
implementation of disaggregate models such as how to
aggregate the results for a corridor or urban area and
how to overcome problems in using the multinomial logit
form of models.
The report is in two parts. Part I is oriented to the
technologist with a familiarity of travel demand fore-
casting techniques who desires to apply disaggregate
models. Part II, Appendixes to Part I, is directed to the
expert who already has some knowledge of some major
issues in the field.
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 253, "Application of Disaggregate Travel Demand
Models."
Project 8-14 FY '75
New Approaches to Understanding Travel Be-
havior
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Boston College
Marc A. Fried
John Havens
January 1, 1975
April 30, 1977
$144,135
The over-all objective of this research was to develop,
test, and operationalize a behavioral theory of travel based
on needs and constraints, system availability, and activity
site accessibility of potential travelers. This theory will
be responsive to today's policy questions and hold poten-
tial for being responsive to future policy questions.
A careful review and evaluation was made of the trans-
portation planning, economics, sociology, geography, and
psychology literature to identify theoretical elements re-
lated to individual travel. This work was synthesized into
a travel behavior theory comprised of two components
a microtheory and a macrotheory. The microtheory con-
cept proposes that individuals in similar social status
positions, in similar life stages, living in similar environ-
ments, will adapt in similar and partially predictable ways.
Important to this theory are role patterns and attitude
structures. The macrotheory is concerned with how the
existence of activity opportunities and constraints mod-
ifies or reinforces behaviors specified in the microtheory.
The microtheory deals with the individual's demand for
activity opportunities; the macrotheory, with the gener-
ation of the activity opportunity sets (i.e., transportation
supply).
Microfiche of the project report, "Travel Behavior: A
Synthesized Theory," is available (see final page of this
section for ordering information). The Summary from the
project report has been published in Appendix G of
NCHRP Report 250, "New Approaches to Understand-
ing Travel Behavior."
The following unpublished, working papers were writ
ten and are available on a loan basis upon written request
to the NCHRP:
1. Classification and Evaluation of Social Science and
Transportation Issues; Marc Fried and John Ha-
vens.
,. Preliminary Dimensions for Classification and Eval-
uation; Marc Fried and John Havens.
3. Toward a Mathematical Framework for Modelling Ur-
ban Travel Behavior; John Havens.
4. Issues in the Analysis of Attitudes (Attitude Theory);
Marc Fried.
5. Attitudes toward Transportation; Marc Fried.
6. The Theory of Decision Dilemmas and Directions;
John Havens.
7. Residential Mobility, Residential Location and Travel
Behavior; Matthew Thall.
8. Spatial Cognition and Transportation; Deana D.
Rhodeside.
9. A Review of Temporal Cognition; Daniel Rogan.
Research was continued as Project 8-14A. It is incor
porating key elements of the synthesized theory into pres
ent travel demand forecast methods.
Project 8-14A FY '77
New Approaches to Unclerstanding Travel Be-
havior: Phase I!
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Charles River Associates
Peter Allaman
January 1, 1978
June 30, 1982
$221,250
NCHRP Project 8-14 initiated development of a new
approach to understanding travel behavior, concentrating
on social and psychological relationships between indi-
viduals and their households as they exist in spatial lay-
outs. The research carefully reviewed sociology and
psychology literature as well as related fields that pertain
to travel behavior. From this, a number of elements were
identified that would assist in development of a theory,
or theories, of travel behavior. Because of the complexity
and extensiveness of the elements proposed, it was further
determined that research (Phase II) would concentrate
on testing three key elements relating to individual and
household behavior and incorporating those elements into
operational travel forecasting procedures, such as the Ur-
ban Transportation Planning System.
The key elements (or concepts) tested included the
following:
1. Activity and travel patterns can be related to de-
mographic descriptors such as social class, ethnicity, life
cycle, and lifestyle.
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2. Intervening factors between activity and travel pat-
terns include social roles and resource constraints.
3. Household activity choice, duration, scheduling, and
location determine travel.
Explicitly excluded from consideration were potential
models developed from theories of adaptive processes.
Although this is a valid subject for future research, the
timeliness of useful travel forecasting techniques coming
from these theories was questionable.
The interim report, entitled "Behavioral Science Con-
cepts for Transportation Planners," is available on mi-
crofiche (see final page of this section for ordering
information).
The project report has been published as: NCHRP
Report 250, "New Approaches to Understanding Travel
Behavior."
Project 8-15 FY '75
State and Regional Transportation Impact
Identification and Measurement
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Bigelow-Crain Associates
Charles D. Bigelow
September 1, 1974
May 31, 1976
$80,000
The general objective of this research was to develop
an improved understanding of specific, and operational,
impact identification and measurement techniques, for use
by transportation agencies in contributing to a variety of
State and regional transportation decisions. To achieve
the stated objective, the research was conducted in two
phases.
Phase I documented specific identification and mea-
surement techniques in contrast to issues of impact eval-
uation. The investigation considered the direct and
indirect impacts of economic development; land use and
housing; air, noise, and water quality; energy utilization;
natural resources and ecosystems; and social and com-
munity structure.
The Phase I report, "State and Regional Transportation
Impact Identification and Measurement," was not pub-
lished. Loan copies are available upon written request to
the NCHRP or microfiche may be purchased (see final
page of this section for ordering information).
Project 8-1 5A FY '75
Economic Impacts of State Transportation
Policies and Programs
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
E~echre Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Regional Science Research Institute
Dr. Benjamin H. Stevens
October 1, 1977
March 31, 1980
$1 17,852
The identification of social, economic, environmental,
and energy impact measurement techniques for use by
state and regional transportation agencies was undertaken
in NCHRP Project 8-15, "State and Regional Transpor-
tation Impact Identification and Measurement." This first
phase of a two-phase project resulted in an extensive
summary of existing impact measurement techniques and
identified a wide range of related research needs.
The objective of the second phase, NCHRP Project
8-15A, was to demonstrate the usefulness of available
techniques that estimate the impact of alternative trans-
port policies and/or programs on economic activities, and
to document the techniques in the form of operating
guidelines and demonstration results. The scale of analysis
was at the statewide and/or economic region levels rather
than urban, and the techniques selected for demonstration
included regional input-output analysis and econometric
simulation models.
The final report contains a set of guidelines to petit
state and/or regional agencies to apply the techniques to
policy and/or program alternatives. Two handbooks were
prepared: (1) basic input-output analysis, and (2) fore-
casting and policy simulation.
The final report and handbooks were not published;
however, loan copies are available upon written request
to the NCHRP or microfiche may be purchased (see final
page of this section for ordering information).
Two computer programs are also available from the
NCHRP. The input-output model, including two com-
puter tapes, may be purchased for $60 if NCHRP provides
the tapes or $20 if the requester provides blank tapes.
The forecasting and policy simulation model may be pur-
chased for $30 on NCHRP's tape or $10 on the requester's
tape.
Project 8-16 FY ,76
Guidelines for Public Transportation Levels of
Service and Evaluation
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
University of Tennessee
Ray A. Mundy
Kenneth W. Heathington
January 1, 1976
December 31, 1980
$489,952
Project 8-16 was initiated in order to develop a method
that would be used by planners to provide public officials
with the desired information and direction for local pub-
lic-transportation actions. The initial 12-month period of
the project was spent conducting an in-depth analysis of
present procedures and practices of the urban mass transit
industry. Included in this effort were research team visits
to 18 urban areas within the United States. From this
research process, a descriptive, comprehensive, planning
model was developed depicting the necessary information
and procedural steps required for the application of mar
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Let opportunity analysis (from the private business world)
to the planning of short-range public transportation. As
depicted in the model, the application of market oppor-
tunity analysis requires both direction from policy deci-
sion areas and data from an engineering data base. When
applied, the market segments are identified, the trans-
portation needs are determined, a transportation system
is developed to meet the needs, and the system is tested.
The model was tested in a neighborhood of Jacksonville,
Florida, and is considered applicable to cities in the 50,000
to 500,000 population range.
Research was completed, and the project report pub-
lished in five volumes, as follows: NCHRP Report 208,
"Market Opportunity Analysis for Short-Range Public
Transportation Planning Procedures for Evaluating Al-
ternative Service Concepts," presents a suggested general
procedure to match desirable service attributes resulting
from a market segmentation study with alternative service
concepts to determine which alternative services are ap-
propriate for a local area. Alternative service concepts
were classified as to vehicle type, degree of right-of-way
control, and operational strategy (routing, scheduling,
and stop location). Also presented are generalized break-
even curves for conventional bus, express bus, demand
responsive, and ridesharing services. Because various in-
stitutional factors (e.g., work rules, public vs. private pro-
vider) can greatly affect costs, it is recommended that the
planner first complete a rough feasibility analysis to limit
the range of alternatives and then perform a "customized"
cost analysis. It is proposed that many institutional bar-
riers can be overcome if a viable cost-effective concept
can be identified.
NCHRP Report 209, "Market Opportunity Analysis
for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning Trans-
portation Services for the Transportation Disadvan-
taged," addresses issues arising from the provisions of
recent legislation and regulations. Social and economic
impacts are substantial. Recommendations are developed
on the premise that existing legislation and regulations
are susceptible to change. Through an elucidation of the
issues and alternative courses of action, this report should
help in future selection of more efficient, economical, and
socially acceptable approaches.
NCHRP Report 210, "Market Opportunity Analysis
for Short Range Public Transportation Planning-Eco-
nomic, Energy, and Environmental Impacts," contains
the recommendation that impact analyses be based on
expected market utilization instead of theoretical system
capacities. Information is provided both for the Engi-
neering Data Base and the Service Design sections of the
model. The findings described in the report will assist the
analyst in structuring information to permit an analysis
of various public transportation service alternatives in
meeting specified objectives even though the objectives
may be in conflict.
NCHRP Report 211, "Market Opportunity Analysis
for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning
"Goals and Policy Development, Institutional Con-
straints, and Alternative Organizational Arrangements,"
presents discussions of the rationale and procedural steps
necessary to develop workable goals for urban public
transportation. Without such direction, little guidance is
given to the decision-maker as to what markets to con-
centrate on and how to measure systemwide performance.
The report addresses the task of determining goals and
policies, as well as the issues involved in preparing a
goal/policy statement, for public transportation in an
urban community. The information developed should
serve as a guide for planners responsible for coordinating
goal/policy development activities in an urban commu-
nity.
Also addressed are the critical institutional issues that
transportation planner and decision-makers must face
when attempting to provide new or improved public trans-
portation services. Various federal, state, and local reg-
ulatory and institutional patterns have developed for the
provision of urban public transportation services. A thor-
ough understanding of these issues is necessary in order
to involve both public and private operators in the pro-
vision of public transportation services. The prospective
opportunities for new private and minority firms to begin
public transportation services have been developed as an
integral part of this report.
The report also provides information from which policy
decisions can be made regarding appropriate organiza-
tional arrangements for providing public transportation
services. This material should be of use to two major
groups: (a) agencies having the responsibility for devel-
oping and implementing the organizational structure for
planning and providing public transportation and services
at the local level, and (b) agencies having the responsibility
for planning, designing, implementing, and operating pub-
lic transportation services at the local level. It is stressed
in this report that with a market-oriented public trans-
portation system management approach the organiza-
tional structure must be tailored to the needs of the local
area's needs and political environment.
NCHRP Report 212, "Market Opportunity Analysis
for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning
Method and Demonstration," adds substantially to the
body of knowledge concerning short-range public trans-
portation planning for cities in the 50,000 to 500,000
population range. A descriptive comprehensive planning
model was developed depicting the necessary information
and procedural steps required for the application of mar-
ket opportunity analysis (from the private business world)
to public transportation planning. As depicted in the
model the application of market opportunity analysis re-
quires both direction from policy decision areas and data
from an engineering data base. When applied, the market
needs are determined, a transportation system is devel-
oped to meet the needs, and the system is tested. The
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model was tested in a neighborhood of Jacksonville, Flor-
ida, at a cost of approximately $100,000. The report con-
cludes that further demonstration of the planning model
will be required to determine whether the benefits from
application outweigh the costs of data collection. If the
entire process were duplicated in another test city, the
costs would be expected to be 50 to 60 percent of the
initial effort.
Each report is aimed at one specific segment of the
overall concept model; together they provide comprehen-
sive guidelines for public transportation officials covering
the three primary activities described in the model
policy, marketing, and engineering.
Project 8-17 FY '76
Freight Data Requirements for Statewide
Transportation Systems Planning
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Roger Creighton Associates, Inc.
Frederick W. Memmott
Richard B. Blackwell
Julyl5,1975
February 15, 1977
$231,147
The general objective of this research was, first, to
determine the type, amount, and relative importance of
freight data required to develop statewide transportation
system plans; and, second, to design and develop tech-
niques, methods, and procedures for assembling these
data.
This research was conducted in two phases. Specific
tasks completed in Phase I were to:
1. Identify the types of freight data necessary for state-
wide transportation systems planning purposes. Recom-
mend what type of data and the scale of detail that will
be required in view of the current and proposed planning
methodologies.
2. Rank these data requirements in terms of their rel-
ative importance to statewide transportation systems
planning.
3. Given the data requirements, catalogue and deter-
mine the existence of available data in reference to the
planning data requirements determined in Task 1. Inves-
tigate the institutional problems and constraints in the
use of freight data (e.g., disclosure restrictions, proprie-
tary nature of shipper and carrier data, and joint use and
reciprocity agreements among private and public parties).
4. Identify deficiencies in existing freight data and eval-
uate the criticality of such deficiencies to statewide trans-
portation systems planning.
5. Develop and evaluate alternative strategies for re-
solving such deficiencies.
Specific tasks completed in Phase II were to:
1. Prepare a manual describing in detail appropriate
techniques for the assembly and understanding of existing
freight data and the collection and understanding of such
additional data as may be required by statewide trans-
portation systems planning.
2. Provide illustrative, realistic examples of how to
apply these techniques to typical problems encountered
in statewide transportation systems planning.
Research has been completed, and the two-volume proj-
ect report has been published as: NCHRP Report 177,
"Freight Data Requirements for Statewide Transporta-
tion Systems Planning Research Report;" and NCHRP
Report 178, "Freight Data Requirements for Statewide
Transportation Systems Planning User's Manual."
Project 8-18 FY '76
Techniques for Evaluating Options in State-
wide Transportation Planning/ Program-
ming
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Planning Environment Interna-
tional, A Division of Alan M.
Voorhees & Associates
Dr. Salvatore J. Bellomo
Dr. Joseph R. Stowers
September 1, 1975
June 30, 1978
$300,393
The general objective of this research was to provide
transportation planning methodologies that are policy-
sensitive, allowing the testing and evaluation of options
to produce timely results for decision-making. This re-
search addressed reasonable-cost, sketch-planning-type
techniques having an application to issues of statewide
transportation planning as part of the programming proc-
ess. This research was conducted in two phases.
Phase I has been completed, and the final report has
been published as: NCHRP Report 179, "Evaluating Op-
tions in Statewide Transportation Planning/Program-
ming Issues, Techniques, and Their Relationships." A
comprehensive classification of transportation issues, data
requirements, and existing techniques is included.
Phase II, consisting of test applications in Maryland
(priority programming system PPS), Georgia (energy
conservation forecasting techniques), and Kentucky
(highway user revenue model HURM, and short-range
capital resource availability model SCRAM), has also
been completed, and the final report has been published
as: NCHRP Report 199, "Evaluating Options in State-
wide Transportation Planning/Programming Tech-
niques and Applications." The computer programs for
PPS, HURM, and SCRAM may be purchased upon writ-
ten request to the NCHRP.
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130
Project 8-19 FY ,77
The Relationship of Changes in Urban High-
way Supply to Vehicle-Miles of Travel
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Earl R. Ruiter
December 1, 1976
November 30, 1978
$199,954
The objective of this project was to determine whether
a relationship exists between measures describing urban
highway supply and vehicle-miles of travel (VMT) and,
if so, to quantify the relationship for practicing planners
through preparation of appropriate graphs and nomo-
graphs.
The research approach hypothesized that VMT can
only be expressed and predicted in terms of its compo-
nents vehicle trips and vehicle trip lengths if it is to
be validly predicted. These components, in turn, were
predicted using a structural model system one which
employs both travel demand and supply models in a
framework which approximates network equilibrium. The
recognition of trips, and not VMT, as the appropriate
unit for measuring demand was the key to the research
approach.
The research results indicate that VMT changes do
occur as highway supply changes, but the changes are
small (e.g., 72 percent in the peak hour for a new urban
freeway) and the relationship is a complex one. To quan-
tify the relationship, the following variables must be con-
sidered: trip frequency, trip distance, auto occupancy, and
mode split. Different results may be anticipated depending
upon (1) the type of highway supply change, (2) the scale
of the highway supply change, (3) the context within
which the supply change takes place, and (4) the time
scale. The complexity of the relationship has two impor-
tant consequences: first the direction of VMT change for
a given highway supply change can vary; second, there
are many variables that affect both the direction and the
magnitude of VMT changes.
Because the model system was applied to only two
highway supply cases, it was not possible to develop the
graphs and Homographs needed to quantify the relation-
ship. Nevertheless, short-range results for two urban ra-
dial freeway cases (1) new construction and (2) expansion
were obtained. For the new freeway case, VMT increased
as highway supply increased, both in peak and off-peak
periods. In the freeway expansion case, peak-period VMT
increases were offset by off-peak decreases to produce a
slight, overall decrease in VMT. The most important com-
ponents of VMT changes for both facilities were total
person trips, which increased; and average trip distance,
which decreased. Less important (by an order of mag-
nitude) were the auto mode split and auto occupancy
components.
None of the existing, aggregate, areawide VMT models
was successful in matching the model system results ob
tained in this project for both test facilities. Although this
fact in itself did not invalidate either modeling approach,
it did suggest that areawide models are severely limited
in their potential usefulness because they fail to consider
differences in types of highway supply changes.
Although VMT increased for one test facility, and
slightly decreased for the other, VMT-related impacts for
both cases generally improved when studied at the urban
area level. Measures of urban mobility, quality of travel
service, air quality (with the exception of the relatively
less critical level of NOX pollutants), fuel consumption,
and travel safety all were improved.
Two measures, directly relating VMT and highway
supply, were recommended. These were the fraction of
new capacity "used" (A VMT/A VMC) and the elasticity
of VMT with respect to vehicle-miles of capacity (E
[VMT/VMC]~.
Microfiche of the agency final draft report is available
and the results are summarized in Research Results Di-
gest 127 (see final page of this section for ordering in-
formation).
Project 8-20 FY '78
Improved Methods for Vehicle Counting and
Determining Vehicle-Miles of Travel
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effechre Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
John Hamburg & Associates
Charles C. Francis, Jr.
January 2, 1978
July31,1980
$200,000
The objective of this research was to develop improved
cost-effective procedures for conducting highway vehicle
counting programs and determining vehicle-miles of
travel (VMT). Research addressed the collection of traffic
counts, processing of such counts, and production and
use of traffic information. Although the primary thrust
of the research was directed toward state-level programs,
the findings include appropriate applications at sub-state,
rural, and urban jurisdictional levels.
A three-volume final report was prepared: (1) State of
the Art, (2) Traffic Counting Program Design, and (3)
Idealized Traffic Volume Information System. Loan cop-
ies are available or microfiche of the report may be pur-
chased (see final page of this section for ordering
information).
Project 8-21 FY ,79
Guidelines for Use of Vanpools and Carpools
as a Transportation System Management
Technique
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
George Washington University
Marian Misch
Joseph Margolin
March 1, 1979
June 30, 1981
$265,486
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131
The general objective of this research was to identify
effective policies and their impacts to encourage van-
pooling and carpooling use based on an understanding of
individual and household preferences and behavior. Spe-
cifically, the research analyzed individual and household
attitudes, preferences, and behaviors related to rideshar-
ing. The goal was to use the analysis results to develop
a manual for transportation practitioners and policy-mak-
ers for selecting techniques that are compatible with other
TSM strategies and were likely to result in significant
increases in ridesharing over the short term (2 to 5 years).
The manual is designed to assist both existing and new
ridesharing agencies in their continuing development as
successful, community-oriented service organizations. It
integrates the results of literature search, contacts with
local ridesharing agencies, and findings from decision
analysis panels and surveys conducted in four metropol-
itan areas of the United States. The manual provides
guidelines for the several stages that any local ridesharing
agency will experience in setting up a community ride-
sharing program; it also details these stages, which are
briefly described as follows:
. Understanding the goals and nature of ridesharing
and of ridesharers.
. Understanding the community conditions and char-
acteristics that affect ridesharing programs.
. Adopting program design guidelines or policies
suited to the community and its commuters.
. Planning the ridesharing program.
. Implementing the program.
. Operating the program while encouraging and/or
responding to indirect incentives, such as high occupancy
vehicle lanes.
. Evaluating and improving the program.
Research has been completed and the manual has been
published as: NCHRP Report 241, "Guidelines for Using
Vanpools and Carpools as a TSM Technique." Appendix
D of the project report summarizes the research findings
on which the manual is based. Detailed findings and sur-
vey data are documented in the agency's final report,
"Using Vanpools and Carpools as a Transportation Sys-
tem Management Technique: Research Report." The
agency research report may be purchased for $1 1.50. Mi-
crofiche is also available. See final page of this section for
ordering information.
Project 8-22 FY ,79
Transportation Financing Within the Context
of Energy Constraints
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
System Design Concepts, Inc.
Dr. Joseph R. Stowers
March 26, 1979
February 27, 1981
$100,000
The general objective of this research was to determine
the impacts of energy conservation policies and proposals
on state transportation financing. A methodology was
developed to enable States to assess the impact of existing
and proposed energy conservation policies on travel and
fuel consumption and to determine user and non-user
impacts on the various revenue sources currently used to
finance highway construction, operation, and mainte-
nance.
The research identified possible modifications of exist-
ing State-level revenue sources and/or proposed new
sources which would lend themselves to creating some
stability and reasonable growth in future over-all highway
transportation funding.
The researchers reviewed procedures used at the na-
tional and state levels to estimate vehicle-miles of travel
and fuel consumption. The procedures included trend-
based methods, econometric models, and less complex
techniques. Also, revenue sources for each state were
summarized. A catalog and description of applicable
methodologies and supporting state and national baseline
data that are available to the states to predict highway
travel and fuel consumption in their jurisdictions under
existing and proposed energy conservation policies were
developed.
Research has been completed, and the findings have
been published as: NCHRP Report 231, "State Trans-
portation Finance Within the Context of Energy Con-
straints."
Project 8-23 FY '79
Fuel Supply Limitations and Passenger Travel
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Charles River Assoc., Inc.
Timothy Tardiff
April 2, 1979
September 1, 1980
$1 10,000
The research project synthesized planning methods,
appropriate for use by professional planners, to evaluate
policy alternatives for likely future energy shortfall sce-
narios. These methods were applied to four energy-defi-
cient scenarios and the resulting changes in travel
estimated. The four scenarios were based on a literature
review and evaluation of current events during the course
of the research. These scenarios considered magnitude,
frequency, and duration of shortfall, gasoline price, and
government actions to conserve gasoline (odd/even pur-
chasing, gasoline rationing, etch. Methods chosen were
incremental logit models for work trips and linear equa-
tion models for nonwork trips. For the four scenarios,
policy alternatives were evaluated in terms of modal
shares, VMT, bus miles of travel, private vehicle fuel
consumption and transit fuel consumption. A comparison
of scenario testing results with the selected models pro-
vided an indication of the relative effects of price, con
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tingency actions, and sticker plan on fuel consumption.
Contingency actions included free tolls for carpools, bus
priority treatment at intersections and traffic signals. ex-
clusive contraflow bus lanes on highways, increases in
parking fees, and reductions in on-street parking. Driving
restriction imposed by the sticker plan led to the highest
reduction in private vehicle fuel consumption. The second
highest reduction resulted from higher gasoline prices in
the range of $2.00 to $3.00 per gallon.
Research has been completed, and the project report
has been published as: NCHRP Report 229, "Fuel Supply
Limitations and Passenger Travel."
Project 8-24 FY '80
Forecasting the Basic Inputs to Transporta-
tion Planning
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Effective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
John Hamburg & Associates, Inc.
Dr. George T. Lathrop
January 21, 1980
April30, 1982
$8 1,000
The research has produced a concise reference for
transportation planners concerned with using projected
socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in trans-
portation planning. Guidance is provided on the accuracy
and usefulness of various projection techniques for various
levels of aggregation and periods of time.
Two general areas of research were pursued:
1. The sensitivity of the transportation planning proc-
ess, particularly trip generation, to variation in input
socioeconomic and demographic variables.
2. Review and evaluation of methodology for produc-
ing study area level projections either on the basis of other
projections or independently.
Research has been completed and results have been
published in NCHRP Report 266, "Forecasting Inputs
to Transportation Planning."
Project 8-24A FY '83
Forecasting the Basic Inputs to Transporta-
tion Planning at the Tonal Level
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
COMSIS Corporation
Arthur B. Sosslau
April 1, 1987
June 1, 1989
$200,000
Transportation planners forecast travel demand on the
basis of anticipated changes in socioeconomic variables
such as population, employment, vehicle availability, in-
come, and household size. Errors in the forecasts of these
variables can lead to substantial errors in information
provided to decision-makers in the evaluation of trans-
portation alternatives. NCHRP Project 8-24 investigated
and reported on a portion of this problem area, specifically
the preparation of aggregate forecasts for sub-state areas.
It examined the sensitivity of the process (and particularly
its first step, trip generation) to differences (or errors) in
input. However, no analysis of the sensitivity of the proc-
ess to disaggregation or variation in aggregation was
performed. This continuation project investigates the
availability and utility of methods to produce forecasts
for units of sub-county levels of geography, typically
traffic zones, either by downward allocation of sub-state
forecasts or by direct means.
A problem that frequently arises is that the various
techniques used to forecast socioeconomic variables pro-
duce significantly different results. Some forecasting tech-
niques produce data that are incomplete or lack sufficient
detail for travel estimates and impact assessments.
Recent demographic trends have demonstrated that
extraordinary changes in the relationships between pop-
ulation, households, and labor force are not effectively
treated in many existing forecasting procedures. Many
jurisdictions are encountering more volatile growth pat-
terns that demand a great sensitivity in forecasting meth-
ods. Moreover, changing demands on the planning
process, including more project-oriented activities, and a
frequent need for quick response have changed forecasting
requirements.
Planning agencies face three types of circumstances in
forecasting for sub-county areas: (1) top-down allocation
mandated by the state in cooperation with the localities;
(2) competing forecasts for localities, which must be rec-
onciled; and (3) a lack of available forecasts from outside
authorities. State and local planners need assistance in
choosing techniques to respond to these problems.
Research is needed to document techniques that: (1)
have been usefully applied by planning agencies, (2) are
applicable at any sub-county level of aggregation, (3) are
accurate for intended purposes, (4) are responsive to cur-
rent planning needs, (5) have well-defined areas of ap-
plication, and (6) can be implemented and updated by
users who do not possess a sophisticated demographic,
economic, or statistical background.
The objective of this research is to extend the work
documented in NCHRP Report 266 to describe and eval-
uate techniques for determining and forecasting the input
variables critical for estimating transportation demand at
the sub-county geographic level. To accomplish this ob-
jective, the following tasks will be performed:
Task 1- Representative methods for allocating or
otherwise forecasting socioeconomic variables at the zonal
level for large and small urban areas will be selected. At
least, the following variables will be considered: popula-
tion, households, employment by place of residence,
workers by place of work, automobiles, and income.
Agency sources, such as state DOTs and MPOs, will be
used as well as traditional literature sources. The effec-
tiveness of the selected methods will be briefly described
~, .
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relative to extent of use, cost, simplicity, documentation,
and software availability.
Task 2-The evaluation criteria to be used in Task 4
for each of the techniques to be considered will be iden-
tified.
Task 3-An interim report presenting the findings of
the first two tasks will be prepared. This report will pro-
vide the basis for panel determination as to whether or
not to proceed with the remainder of the research.
Task 4-This evaluation task will expand on the find-
ings of Tasks 1 and 2:
Subtask 4.1 Applicable procedures and techniques for
allocation or other forecasting procedures concerning
population, jobs, households, vehicle ownership and avail-
ability, employment characteristics, income, and such
other variables as are necessary for applications in trans-
portation planning at the sub-county geographic level will
be described and characterized. The descriptions and
characterizations will clarify differences among and ap-
propriateness of each procedure identified. Constraints or
conditions under which each procedure is applied will be
listed and described.
Subtask 4.2 For each of the procedures described in
Subtask 4.1, discuss conditions of applicability, i.e., where
and under what circumstances can such procedures be
applied, and how universal or limited is the application.
Subtask 4.3-For each of the procedures described,
discuss the types and level of skill necessary to apply the
forecasting techniques in transportation planning situa-
tions. In addition, effectiveness of performance of these
techniques (for example, the adequacy of forecasts for the
desired levels of application) will be addressed.
Subtask 4.4 Concise numerical examples illustrating
how each method is applied will be provided. The ex-
amples will clearly show data inputs and sources, step-
by-step procedures of application, and output and its for-
mat. The data sources will be completely described and
serve as guides to application by local planners (e.g.,
census data, local surveys, other sources). Where com-
puter application is involved, software references will be
provided.
Subtask 4.5 The advantages and disadvantages of
each technique will be discussed. The discussion will in-
clude but not be limited to data needs, required skills,
ease of application, output products, and costs.
Task 5 Research on zonal disaggregation problems
will be addressed. The researcher will examine the sen-
sitivity of final estimates of travel demand, i.e., link and
line volumes, to changes in values, definitions, and di-
mensions of socio-input variables at the zonal level.
Task 6 A final report will be prepared documenting
the research findings. To the extent practical the report
will be prepared in a format suitable for use as a manual
of practice for state and local transportation planners,
specifically showing the individual steps to be taken in
applying each method.
Tasks 1 through 4 have been completed and work is
underway on Task 5 sensitivity testing. The project com-
pletion date was extended 6 months because of problems
encountered in the selection, arranging, and scheduling
of the sensitivity tests.
Project 8-25 FY '80
intermits Bus Transportation Planning
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.
John F. DiRenzo
April 1, 1980
January 31, 1982
$200,000
The objective of this research was to investigate in-
tercity travel requirements, including those of small urban
and rural areas, and to evaluate the role and potential
of intercity bus services in meeting those requirements.
Procedures were developed to determine appropriate
level-of-service requirements for intercity bus services.
The procedures are designed for use by state and local
transportation planners as a means of identifying the rel-
ative needs of communities or sets of communities for
intercity bus transportation, and as a tool for prioritizing
the potential recipients of public assistance for the pro-
vision of such services.
Alternative bus service designs were developed that
utilize the potential resources of intercity bus carriers to
satisfy the public transportation requirements. The alter-
native service options include using smaller size vehicles,
employing student or part-time drivers, truncating or ex-
tending a route, changing service frequencies, using local
or regional operators, adding new stops, altering sched-
ules, and coordinating service with local rural transit
operations. The feasibility of these options was tested
through case study applications in selected intercity cor-
ridors in California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania,
and South Carolina.
Actions state and local agencies can take to help the
intercity bus operators meet the intercity service require-
ments were also identified. These actions include financial
assistance such as fuel tax relief, registration fee reduc-
tions, and direct terminal equipment and operating grants;
technical assistance such as distribution of intercity bus
information, marketing, providing input to terminal lo-
cation decisions, and coordination with other modes; and
removal of regulatory and other barriers to intercity bus
travel, as well as initiation of positive incentives to en-
courage greater utilization of services.
Research has been completed. The agency report has
been distributed to the Program sponsors and other in-
terested persons. It will not be published in the regular
NCHRP report series but is available on a loan basis or
microfiche of the report may be purchased (see final page
of this section for ordering information).
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Project 8-26 FY '81
Development of Highway Traffic Data for
Project Planning and Design in
Urbanized Areas
Research Agency: JHK & Associates
Principal Invest.: Neil J. Pedersen
Elective Date: May 15, 1981
Completion Date: December 31, 1982
Funds: $100,000
The objectives of this research were to (1) identify,
review, and evaluate typical procedures currently being
used to develop highway traffic data for project planning
and design in urbanized areas; and (2) using existing
techniques to the maximum extent possible, develop a
user-oriented manual containing procedures for the full
range of planning and design needs together with illus-
trative case studies.
Procedures and analysis techniques that have been
proven reasonably successful were grouped and critiqued
in terms of criteria including required degree of precision,
resource requirements, ability to replicate the effort, and
rationale. In addition, input data requirements such as
system-level assignments, historical traffic count data,
land-use information, and other factors were addressed.
A user-oriented manual was developed describing rec-
ommended procedures. Each procedure includes a com-
mentary describing the benefits, shortcomings, and the
circumstances that may require alternative steps. Design
project "cases" with appropriate traffic estimating steps
are described. Cases were selected to ensure coverage of
the full range of applications and include: (1) use of re-
finement procedures for upgrading of a limited access
highway, (2) use of windowing procedures for evaluating
an arterial improvement, and (3) application of proce-
dures to highway design.
Research has been completed, and the final report has
been published as: NCHRP Report 255, "Highway Traffic
Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design."
Project 8-27 FY '80
Cost-Effectiveness of Transportation
Services for Handicapped Persons
Research Agency:
Principal Invest.:
Elective Date:
Completion Date:
Funds:
Transportation Center
University of Tennessee
Kenneth W. Heathington
Frederick J. Wegmann
September 1, 1981
April30, 1983
$199,543
The objectives of this research were to determine the
cost effectiveness of alternative transportation services for
handicapped persons and to develop guidelines for state
and local planners, transportation providers, and decision-
makers on determining the most cost-effective way of
meeting the transportation needs of handicapped people.
The research conducted under NCHRP Project 8-27
has resulted in the publication of two documents: NCHRP
Report 261, "Cost-Effectiveness of Transportation Ser-
vices for Handicapped Persons Research Report," and
NCHRP Report 262, "Planning Transportation Services
for Handicapped Persons User's Guide." NCHRP Re-
port 261 documents the results of a study of the cost-
effectiveness of alternative transportation services for
handicapped persons. The companion document
(NCHRP Report 262) provides planners and decision-
makers with guidelines on how to evaluate alternative
transportation services for handicapped persons and to
identify the most cost-effective solutions for their com-
munities.
Project 8-28 FY '87
Strategic Planning and Management for
Transportation Agencies
Research Agency: Ernst & Whinney
Principal Invest.: Gene Tyndall
Elective Date: June 1, 1987
Completion Date: September 30, 1988
Funds: $ 180,000
Unlike the period from the end of World War II
through the mid-1960's, which was generally character-
ized by stable economic growth and social and public
policy environments, the 1970's and 1980's have been
affected by an accelerating pace of change in economic,
social, technological, and public policy factors. These fac-
tors interact in ways that require new efforts to properly
position organizations in future operating environments.
Institutions must develop mechanisms to assure adapta-
tion to the ever-changing environment.
The need for new management systems incorporating
more effective means of identifying new directions for
organizations and shifts in allocation of resources to im-
plement change was first recognized by the private sector.
Strategic planning was initiated by large U.S. corporations
in the late 1960's and early 1970's. Because of dissatis-
faction with the results of strategic planning when it was
conceived and applied only as a planning function, many
corporations are expanding their approach to strategic
management. In applying strategic management, the skill
of strategic planning is practiced at all levels of the or-
ganization and is integrated into all other management
systems to assure the "fit" of strategy to an organization.
The expected result is a major improvement in organi-
zational effectiveness.
By the late 1970's strategic approaches had begun to
be applied in a few public transportation agencies. Re-
search is now needed to determine the status of strategic
planning and management in public sector transportation
agencies, to develop an understanding of which ap-
proaches are applicable and effective in public agencies,
and to identify potential pitfalls. The results of the re-
search should provide transportation agencies with guide
Representative terms from entire chapter:
principal invest
