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119 Benefit-cost analysis can be used over a broad spectrum of projects and at different levels of detail. The scope of this study should cover highway projects ranging from individual intersection improvements and Transportation Systems Management (TSM) projects to major road up- gradings and construction of new roads connecting to the interstate or other major facilities. Comprehensive life- cycle cost evaluation techniques should also be included. The focus of the effort will be directed to analyses at the project level and its immediate area impacts rather than at a highway system level. Task 1. Review the literature for procedures used in highway user benefit-cost and related noise and air pol- lution emission analyses and identify sources of support data for use in the determination of vehicle operating costs, accident reduction benefits, travel-time values, and any other appropriate factors. Task 2. Assess the support data and procedures iden- tified in Task 1 and select for inclusion in the computer program those most appropriate in terms of their cur- rency, completeness, general use, and ease of updating. In addition, provide a comparative analysis of the selected procedures with those found in the 1977 AASHTO Man- ual on User Benef t Analysis of Highway and Bus Transit Improvements. Task 3. Develop procedures for updating support data to the current analysis year, and propose default values where appropriate. Task 4 Develop a preliminary design for the micro- computer program that accurately reflects the anticipated context and degree of user friendliness. The design should address at least the following: screen layouts, menus, input requirements and procedures from the user and from support data sources, modular structure, process flow diagrams, and output formats and compatibility. In ad- dition, develop a preliminary design for a program vali- dation plan, a user's manual, and program documentation report. Task 5. Prepare and submit to NCHRP an interim report on Tasks 1 through 4. NCHRP approval is required before subsequent tasks are initiated. Task 6. Develop the comprehensive user friendly soft- ware, adapting the selected techniques to microcomputer use. The program should contain at least the following features: a. Capability to conduct life-cycle cost analysis. b. Both default values and user-provided data input capability. c. Procedures for updating support data and parameter values to the analysis year. d. Informative error messages. e. Capability to operate on a fully IBM-compatible microcomputer at a reasonable speed, in a portable and commonly available language that does not re- quire additional end user hardware or software ac . . . qu~s~t~on. Task 7. Validate the software using the validation plan identified in Task 4. The purpose of the validation plan is to ensure that all calculations are performed correctly with adequate checking of data, parameter values, and ranges. Prepare a program validation report that: (a) de- scribes the methodology used in developing the validation plan, (b) provides a description of the test data sets used to validate the computer program, and (c) documents the results obtained by "hand" and by the computer program. Task 8. Prepare a user's manual, a program docu- mentation report, and a brief, applications-oriented primer on benefit-cost analysis and economic evaluation of highway user benefits. Task 9. Provide to five states selected by the NCHRP copies of the software, documentation developed in Tasks 7 and 8, and all other necessary materials to test the implementation capabilities of the software. These states will critique the materials provided and transmit written evaluations to the contractor who will make necessary modifications to the program and documentation. Task 10. Prepare a final report documenting the re- search effort. It should contain the modified applications- oriented primer; a description of the computer program and its application, including examples; the user's manual; and the program documentation report including the ex- ecutable program and its source code. AREA 8: FORECASTING Project 8-1 FY '64 Social and Economic Factors Affecting Travel Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Vogt, Ivers and Associates Robert S. Vogt February 1, 1964 September 23, 1966 $94,558 The purpose of this research was to develop means of estimating intercity travel using known traffic volumes and available economic and social data between selected cities and testing it by application to other pairs of cities between which travel is also known. Knowledge gained by this research is useful to trans- portation planners and design engineers. Extensive use of electronic computers and existing computer programs to extract and classify summarized pertinent origin-desti- nation data from existing studies has been accomplished. A nationwide network has been produced for trip distri- bution purposes. More than 3,000 centroids representing each county or county equivalent with basic population, employment, income, bank deposit, and other social-eco- nomic information have been assigned. The centroids are connected by links representing the highway system. Ex- ternal O-D data were acquired and processed for 22 cities

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120 in Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Missouri. From these data, regression analyses were run to test various equation forms and the correlation between variables, combination of variables, and transformation of variables for total trips and for trips by purpose. The trips predicted from the regression equations have been compared to actual survey trips. The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 70, "Social and Economic Factors Affecting Travel." Project 8-2 FY '64 and FY '65 Factors Influencing Modal Trip Assignment Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: IIT Research Institute Dr. F. C. Bock February 1, 1964 August 31, 1966 $298,033 The intent of this research was to improve methods of assigning urban area traffic to the various modes of travel. It involved the identifying of factors underlying choice of travel mode, the determination of the relationships of these factors, and also the development of a method of analysis and forecasting. Methods were tested and found to be practicable for use under real-life conditions. Such methods would be applicable in making better trip as- signments in urban transportation systems. The project report contains a survey of existing modal split models, and analysis of five metropolitan areas hav- ing rail rapid transit, a study of factors influencing choice in travel mode, and prediction models for modal choice based on discriminant functions with a comparison of reported trips and computed paths. The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 57, "Factors Influencing Modal Trip Assign- ment." Project 8-3 FY '64 Individual Preferences for Various Means of Transportation Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: University of Pennsylvania Dr. Russell L. Ackoff February 1, 1964 March 31, 1965 $63,282 This project was designed to probe individuals' trans- portation preferences as contrasted to the more objective studies that Project 8-2 is concerned with. It was expected that the research would develop additional knowledge as to why and under what conditions persons will use or shift from one form of transportation to another. Better information and estimating bases are needed in order to obtain broad community agreement on plans for transit and highway improvement. The final report was not published; however, microfiche of the report may be purchased (see final page of this section for ordering information). Project 8-4 FY '65 Criteria for Evaluating Alternative Transpor- tation Plans Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Northwestern University Dr. Edwin N. Thomas Dr. Joseph L. Schofer February 1, 1965 August 1, 1967 $89,900 This project was intended to identify and evaluate the broad array of factors which should be considered in making an intelligent choice among alternative transpor- tation plans. A system for using these factors should be devised. The multi-volume report consists of a section in three parts entitled "Strategies for the Evaluation of Alternative Transportation Plans," and a section entitled "Evaluation of Engineering Projects Using Perceptions of and Pref- erences for Project Characteristics." In response to comments of the project panel, some additional material was found to be desirable to be added to the final report. Certain modifications were deemed necessary to relate the findings of the research more closely to the immediate needs of transportation planners. A continuation contract was executed under NCHRP Project 8-4A for the purpose of modifying the final report for publication. Project 8-4A FY '65 Criteria for Evaluating Alternative Transpor- tation Plans Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: University of Illinois Dr. Joseph L. Schofer October 14, 1968 January 10, 1969 $5,000 See Project 8-4 for objective of the research. To improve the flow of ideas throughout the document, the final report of Project 8-4 was modified. In addition, more extensive descriptions of strategies for treating streams of cost and effectiveness indicators were prepared and integrated into the text. Also, several illustrative ex- amples of the application of cost-effectiveness analysis to transportation-plan evaluation were prepared to demon- strate the use of the methodology, as well as to support some of the broader concepts described in the final report. The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 96, "Strategies for the Evaluation of Alternative Transportation Plans."

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121 Project 8-5 FY '65 and FY '68 Transportation Aspects of and-Use ControIs Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Victor Gruen Associates Harold Marks April 1, 1965 Aug. 7, 1967 May 31, 1966 Jan. 15, 1970 $25,967 $99,571 The objective of this research was to provide a better understanding of the effectiveness of existing land-use controls on the continuing utility of transportation sys- tems. A first technical report has been published as: NCHRP Report 31, "A Review of Transportation Aspects of Land- Use Control." This project was continued to establish principles or guidelines for developing land-use controls and other techniques that will be stable and effective in the protec- tion of highway utility. The research effort was conceptual in nature and presented a variety of ideas and proposals by which the highway investment can be protected. Some of the guidelines were developed in considerable detail. These can be incorporated into the procedures and prac- tices of land-use and highway administrators. Other prin- ciples were developed as a base from which more detailed analyses can be undertaken. The project report discusses basic interrelationships be- tween transportation facilities and land use and how such relationships can cause transportation facility break- downs. The effects of changing land-use controls on the utility of highways are discussed, with special attention being given to large traffic generators located near freeway interchanges. The continuation research has been completed, and the project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 121, "Protection of Highway Utility." Project 8-6 FY ,66 Individual Preferences for Alternative DwelI- ing Types and Environments Research Agency: University of North Carolina Principal Invest.: F. Stuart Chapin, Jr. Elective Date: February 14, 1966 Completion Date: March 13, 1968 behavior which will have the capability of dealing with both the mobility and choice processes as components of residential changes. The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 81, "Moving Behavior and Residential Choice- A National Survey." Project 8-7 FY ,69 Evaluation of Data Requirements and Collec- tion Techniques for Transportation Plan neng Research Agency: Creighton-Hamburg Principal Invest.: Roger L. Creighton Elective Date: September 13, 1968 Completion Date: August 28, 1970 Funds: $190,000 The purpose of the research project was to see what data were needed, first, for the basic transportation plan- ning process such as was required to be undertaken for metropolitan areas by the Highway Act of 1962, and, second, for new kinds of transportation planning that are developing. A very limited number of transportation stud- ies were selected for careful and detailed data analysis to establish recommendations on guidelines for data require- ments and collection techniques. The project defined data requirements for both basic and continuing urban trans- portation studies with regard to travel, transportation facility, land-use, and socioeconomic data. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine variations of the trans- portation data for assessing the impact that data errors have on the output of the transportation planning process. The research included a comprehensive study of the transportation planning process in five cities to determine data collected, how they were used for planning and re- search, and their times and costs. Sensitivity tests of these data were conducted. Studies of data needs for new types of transportation-planning processes and alternate means of collecting data were also undertaken. Research was conducted on data needs of related planning processes, such as TOPICS Planning and Transit Planning. The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 120, "Data Requirements for Metropolitan Trans- portation Planning." Funds: $99 897 ' Project 8-7A FY ,71 In predicting the future demand for transportation, it is imperative that future densities of residential areas be projected. In order that this may be done with confidence, a better understanding must be acquired for the prefer ences of various housing types and environments. The project report deals with a summary of findings on housing choice of the households interviewed; an anal ysis of the residential mobility process; an analysis of the housing-choice process; and, drawing on these analyses, a discussion of the elements needed for a model of moving Data Requirements and Transportation Plan- ning Procedures in Small Urban Areas Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: University of Tennessee Dr. William L. Grecco June 1, 1973 June 14, 1975 $98,005 The initial focus of this research was to develop a simplified transportation planning process for small urban

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122 areas of less than 250,000 population that is sufficiently flexible so that travel forecasts can be based on a small- sample home-interview survey or simulation. It was found that the existing standardized procedures were incom- patible with the possible variations in the nature of the problems, available resources, and expectations of the participants. The digest of responses from the small urban areas examined typifies the difficulty faced when attempt- ing to adapt the planning problem to the planning process, rather than fitting the process to the specific problem. The need for a customization of planning procedures was established, and the current organizational framework and technical practices in both land-use and transporta- tion planning were evaluated from that standpoint. Land-use planning in small communities was found to be highly standardized in format and content, but not in procedures, which varied significantly in terms of so- phistication. It was found to be appropriate for planners to forego elaborate procedures in favor of various hand methods that are heavily dependent on the planner's knowledge of the community and the exercise of profes- sional judgment in an ad hoc, or opportunistic, fashion. The transportation planning procedures appeared to be relatively more standardized. The research identified and presented four types of transportation planning techniques for application in small urban areas: (a) network simulation based on syn- thetic models and a small-sample household survey, (b) consumer-oriented transit planning procedure, (c) simple techniques for corridor analysis, and (d) hand-computa- tion-oriented procedure for estimating localized impacts of major traffic generators. Existing techniques were re- viewed and tested (to varying levels) within each category. Examples include cross-classification and synthetic models, corridor-growth traffic-forecasting models, use of work-trip data from employers to update continuing transportation studies, development of a consumer-ori- ented approach to determining local transit needs and providing activity-center traffic estimates to assist in as- sessing the localized impact of land-use changes on the transportation system. Research has been completed, and the project has been published as: NCHRP Report 167, "Transportation Plan- ning for Small Urban Areas." Project 8-8(1) FY '69 The Impact of Highways upon Environmental Values (Study Design) Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Massachusetts Institute of Technol- ogy Dr. Marvin L. Manheim September 16, 1968 March 14, 1969 $29,654 The increased emphasis on social and esthetic values has focused attention on the need for improving integra- tion of the highway with the community. The scope of this project was to develop an independent study design to be used as the research plan for the second- phase work. The study design was completed, and the report received but not published. Refer to Project 8-8~3) for description of the over-all project objectives and details of the second phase of this study. Project 8-8(2) FY ,69 The Impact of Highways upon Environmental Values (Study Design) Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Daniel, Mann, Johnson & Menden- hall S. R. Sludiko~ September 9, 1968 March 7, 1969 $28,950 The increased emphasis on social and esthetic values has focused attention on the need for improving integra- tion of the highway with the community. The scope of this project was to develop an independent study design to be used as the research plan for the second- phase work. The study design was completed, and the report received but not published. Refer to Project 8-8~3) for description of the over-all project objectives and details of the second phase of this study. Project 8-8(3) FY '69 The Impact of Highways upon Environmental Values Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Massachusetts Institute of Technol- ogy Dr. Marvin L. Manheim September 15, 1969 July 31, 1974 $470,000 The increasing emphasis on social and environmental values has focused attention on the need for improving integration of a transportation facility with both the nat- Oral and the human environment. To achieve desirable levels of integration, research was programmed by AASHTO to (a) develop a practical method for evaluating the immediate and long-term effects of highways on the social and environmental considerations of communities and (b) test, evaluate, and refine the method by applying it to specific cases covering a range of situations. Because the design process must maximize the probability that significant community values will be considered, even if the state of the art does not allow all of these values to be measured quantitatively or precisely, the research em- phasizes development of an approach in the context of

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123 the location process. Although the scope encompasses all types of highways, the study findings are applicable to all types of transportation facilities, many other public works projects, and all phases of planning. In the initial phase, funded in 1969, MIT prepared a study design that served as the working plan to develop a pragmatic approach to the problem. The conclusion to the first phase was an unpublished draft report, "Com- munity Values in Highway Location and Design: A Pro- cedural Guide." The second and final phase included (1) working with selected State highway departments to implement the pro- posed approach and adapt it to specific situations; (2) extending the approach for use in metropolitan area and statewide multimodal, systems-level planning; (3) extend- ing, testing, and refining the techniques set forth in the draft Procedural Guide; and (4) revising the Procedural Guide to reflect the additional knowledge. The approach developed recognizes and considers ten elements basic to the consideration of environmental and social values in transportation planning. They are: (1) Differential erects. (2) Community values. (3) Community interaction. (4) Evaluation and reporting. (5) Consideration of alternatives. (6) Identification of impacts and affected interests. (7) Process management. (8) Interrelation of system and process planning. (9) Institutional arrangements and decision making. (10) Implementation of the approach. These elements are described in an overview and discussed individually in detail. To assist in incorporating these elements into the transportation planning process, specific immediately implementable techniques that can be used by transportation agencies are described. Most of the techniques can be adopted individually without difficulty. (They are intended for use in developing and evaluating alternative transportation plans with the participation of other state and federal agencies and local citizens and officials.) Some of these techniques are already current practice in some agencies. Several have been tried in other professions; others have been recommended in the pub- lished literature or were suggested in discussions with federal and State highway officials. Many more stemmed from direct observation of the problems transportation . . . agencies are lacing. Research has been completed, and the project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 156, "Transpor- tation Decision-Making A Guide to Social and Envi- ronmental Considerations." The report is closely related to the requirements of the Process Guidelines for the development of Environmental Action Plans as specified in Volume 7, Chapter 1, Section 1 of the Federal Highway Administration's Federal-Aid Highway Program Manual. It is structured to assist in the revision and implementation of Action Plans. The overview discussion of the ten elements is roughly anal- ogous in scope and level of detail to the FHWA Process Guidelines. The remaining sections of the report corre- spond in many ways to the content of an Action Plan. Project 8-9 FY '72 Comparative Economic Analysis of Alterna- tive Multimodal Passenger Transportation Systems Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Creighton-Hamburg F. F. Frye September 1, 1971 January 31, 1973 $ 100,000 The objective of this research was to develop improve- ments and expansion of existing processes that evaluate alternative multimodal transportation system plans. These improvements were sought on the basis of increas- ing the number of relevant criteria used in the evaluation framework and ensuring that the measuring techniques (economic evaluation criteria) developed represented ac- curately the impacts of alternative transportation plans. Research has been completed, and the project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 146, "Alternative Multimodal Passenger Transportation Systems Com- parative Economic Analysis." Project 8-10 FY '72 Planning and Design Guiclelines for Efficient Bus Utilization of Highway Facilities Research Agency: Wilbur Smith and Associates Principal Invest.: Herbert S. Levinson Elective Date: September 1, 1971 Completion Date: July 31, 1973 Funds: $ 149,907 This research was designed to develop a single reference source of bus priority measures to increase the person- carrying capacity of urban highways. The interim report, "Bus Use of Highways State of the Art," published as NCHRP Report 143, contains a literature search and correlative analysis of more than 200 bus priority treatments throughout the world. The final report, "Bus Use of Highways Planning and Design Guidelines," published as NCHRP Report 155, contains planning and design guidelines for efficient bus use of highways based on the experience gained from the literature search and state-of-the-art survey. It identifies significant policy implications, contains relevant planning criteria and warrants for various bus priority treatments, suggests measures of effectiveness, presents bus design parameters, and sets forth detailed planning and design guidelines for both freeway-related and arterial-related

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124 bus priority treatments and for terminals. For measuring effectiveness, it was found that the variance of bus times is an important descriptor of bus reliability. To aid the designer, vehicle design and performance characteristics are given, together with bus capacity con- siderations. These include queue behavior parameters, bus unloading and loading times, and bus capacity ranges. Bus priority treatments should be complemented by appropriate policies that encourage and reinforce transit use, such as low bus fares, downtown commuter parking supply and rate adjustments, and strict enforcement of bus priority treatments. Within this policy framework, that recognizes public transport as an essential commu- nity service, various types of bus preferential treatments can be applied to specific urban situations. Project 8-11 FY '73, FY '76, and FY '77 Social, Economic, Environmental Conse- quences of Not Constructing a Transpor- tation Facility Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: DACP, Inc. Jonathan S. Lane Lance R. Grenzebach September 16, 1974 November 30, 1979 $364,363 This project had as its general objective the strength- ening of transportation impact assessment and evaluation procedures; the mechanism for this was the no-action alternative. The research was to define the no-action al- ternative, determine its role in project evaluation and impact assessment, and review techniques available for assessing the impacts of no-action and other project al- ternatives. It was found that existing agency procedures regarding the no-action alternative were inconsistent and confusing. Definitions and role of the no-action alternative varied widely. Reports on a plethora of impact assessment meth- ods were scattered throughout the literature. From these findings came the strong recommendation that the no- action alternative be defined as the maintenance of exist- ing facilities and services in the study corridor and region and that the role of the no-action alternative be that of a benchmark against which all other alternatives be eval- uated and assessed. A December 1975 two-volume interim report is avail- able in microfiche and covers the then existing state of the art: (a) illustrations of alternative definitions; (b) ex- panded discussion and illustration of alternative methods of plan evaluation and of techniques in current use for social, economic, and environmental impact assessment; and (c) reporting of the four case studies of facilities where no-build decisions had been made (see final page of this section for ordering information). Research has been completed, and the project report has been published in two volumes, as follows: NCHRP Report 216, "The No-Action Alternative: Research Re- port," highlights the findings of the research and docu- ments the research activities, including summary reports of case studies, surveys, and pilot program activities un- dertaken with nine state agencies. NCHRP Report 217, "The No-Action Alternative: Im- pact Assessment Guidelines," details how the research findings may be applied and provides recommended policy and procedural changes to strengthen both assessment and evaluation of all alternatives, presents the recom- mended approach for the definition and use of the no- action alternative, and includes methods for assessing 13 categories of impacts and evaluating the results. Although the recommendations may require adjustment and "tai- loring" by each user agency, the net effect of the Guide- lines should be to encourage standardization of practice and more effective use of the no-action alternative. Project 8-12 FY '75 Travel Estimation Procedures for Quick Re- sponse to Urban Policy Issues Research Agency: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Principal Invest.: George V. Wickstrom Arthur B. Sosslau Elective Date: September 3, 1974 Completion Date: December 31, 1975 Funds: $39,895 Most techniques for estimating urban travel demand were developed to evaluate alternative transportation sys- tems for an entire region. Application of these compre- hensive techniques to provide timely answers to current policy questions has proven very difficult. This research effort was initiated to assemble and modify existing tech- piques, as well as to develop new approaches, for use by transportation planners faced with the need to be more responsive to current issues. Research has been completed, and the major findings have been incorporated into the research report emanating from Project 8-12A and published as: NCHRP Report 186, "Travel Estimation Procedures for Quick Response to Urban Policy Issues." Project 8-12A FY '75 and FY '76 Travel Estimation Procedures for Quick Re- sponse to Urban Policy Issues Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Comsis Corporation Arthur B. Sosslau George V. Wickstrom November 1, 1975 October 31, 1978 $239,33 1

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125 This continuation of Project 8-12 has provided a user's guide of travel estimation techniques having quick re- sponse capabilities. The techniques are applicable for use by transportation and land-use planners, giving emphasis to the impacts of land-use changes on transportation al- ternatives and the magnitude of urban activities consistent with differing levels of transportation service. Problems of scale are addressed; e.g., the applicability of techniques to regions, subregions, and corridors. Detailed descriptions of manual techniques for use in each aspect of travel demand estimation (i.e., trip gen- eration, trip distribution, modal choice, auto occupancy, time-of-day distribution, traffic assignment, capacity anal- ysis, and development density versus highway spacing relationships) were developed in this research. Numerous charts, tales, and Homographs were prepared to simplify each analysis step. Data requirements were also reduced by making maximum use of transferable parameters de- veloped from other studies and urban areas. Three sce- nario applications of the manual techniques were conducted to illustrate the potential usefulness of the var- ious analysis techniques. The presentation of the proce- dures in the final report is structured to allow their utilization by transportation planners with various levels of experience. Instructional materials for use in training sessions or workshops were developed based on the manual tech- niques described in the user's guide. These materials in- clude more than 400 slides, 50 transparencies, an instructor's notebook, and a student's notebook. The training package is available from NCHRP on loan upon written request or may be purchased. Requests should be directed to NCHRP. The research report and user's guide have been pub- lished, respectively, as: NCHRP Report 186, "Travel Es- timation Procedures for Quick Response to Urban Policy Issues," and NCHRP Report 187, "Quick-Response Ur- ban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Pa- rameters User's Guide." Project 8-13 FY '75 Disaggregate Travel Demand Models Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Charles River Associates William B. Tye September 15, 1974 January 31, 1976 $ 100,000 The over-all objective of this research was to develop, in separately funded phases extending over several years, operational travel demand forecasting models consistent with travel choice behavior and with coefficients estimated by use of data at the level of households or individual travelers. It was anticipated that such models will form the basis of improved travel demand estimation proce- dures. Models were developed in Phase I using Pittsburgh and Minneapolis/St. Paul data bases. Binary logit models were estimated for (1) the mode choice for work, (2) the mode choice for shopping, (3) the destination choice for shopping, and (4) the trip frequency choice for shopping. A report, "Disaggregate Travel Demand Models: Phase I Report," presents the major findings and is available in microfiche (see final page of this section for ordering information). In the report, the models are appraised in terms of their advantages in travel demand analysis, their low data collection costs, their transferability, and their flexibility in application. Several hypothetical applications are provided. Research was continued as Project 8-13~2~. Project 8-13~2) FY ,77 Disaggregate Travel Demand Models Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Affective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Charles River Associates, Inc. William B. Tye May 1, 1976 December 31, 1980 $200,000 This project was a continuation of Project 8-13. The overall objective of the research was to develop opera- tional travel demand forecasting models consistent with travel choice behavior and with coefficients estimated by use of data at the level of households or individual trav- elers. Phase II extended the Project 8-13 research program: (1) to conduct one or more demonstrations of the dis- aggregate models applied to policy issues at a state or local planning agency; and (2) to determine an approach to be used in solving problems that will be incurred in application (such as application of disaggregate models to aggregate data and aggregate forecasting). A worktrip mode-choice model, developed with Pittsburgh, Pa., data was used to predict the share of trips attracted to a new park-and-express-ride bus service in Baltimore. The pre- dicted ridership was approximately one-half of the ob- served trips. The application uncovered potential pitfalls in the application of disaggregate models, particularly when using aggregate data, that provided valuable infor- mation for the preparation of recommendations in the final report. To meet Objective 2, a market segmentation approach was developed to overcome bias problems, when aggregating from households to a subregion and when using aggregate time and cost variables. The Phase II report is available on microfiche (see final page of this section for ordering information). The project was concluded in a third phase in which disaggregate models were developed for the work trip using the Baltimore Disaggregate Data Set. Guidance on the transferability of these models together with those developed previously using Pittsburgh and Twin Cities (MN) data sets is provided in a final report intended as

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126 an "entry point" for transportation planners interested in applying disaggregate models. In addition to transfera- bility, guidance is given on other impediments to the implementation of disaggregate models such as how to aggregate the results for a corridor or urban area and how to overcome problems in using the multinomial logit form of models. The report is in two parts. Part I is oriented to the technologist with a familiarity of travel demand fore- casting techniques who desires to apply disaggregate models. Part II, Appendixes to Part I, is directed to the expert who already has some knowledge of some major issues in the field. The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 253, "Application of Disaggregate Travel Demand Models." Project 8-14 FY '75 New Approaches to Understanding Travel Be- havior Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Boston College Marc A. Fried John Havens January 1, 1975 April 30, 1977 $144,135 The over-all objective of this research was to develop, test, and operationalize a behavioral theory of travel based on needs and constraints, system availability, and activity site accessibility of potential travelers. This theory will be responsive to today's policy questions and hold poten- tial for being responsive to future policy questions. A careful review and evaluation was made of the trans- portation planning, economics, sociology, geography, and psychology literature to identify theoretical elements re- lated to individual travel. This work was synthesized into a travel behavior theory comprised of two components a microtheory and a macrotheory. The microtheory con- cept proposes that individuals in similar social status positions, in similar life stages, living in similar environ- ments, will adapt in similar and partially predictable ways. Important to this theory are role patterns and attitude structures. The macrotheory is concerned with how the existence of activity opportunities and constraints mod- ifies or reinforces behaviors specified in the microtheory. The microtheory deals with the individual's demand for activity opportunities; the macrotheory, with the gener- ation of the activity opportunity sets (i.e., transportation supply). Microfiche of the project report, "Travel Behavior: A Synthesized Theory," is available (see final page of this section for ordering information). The Summary from the project report has been published in Appendix G of NCHRP Report 250, "New Approaches to Understand- ing Travel Behavior." The following unpublished, working papers were writ ten and are available on a loan basis upon written request to the NCHRP: 1. Classification and Evaluation of Social Science and Transportation Issues; Marc Fried and John Ha- vens. ,. Preliminary Dimensions for Classification and Eval- uation; Marc Fried and John Havens. 3. Toward a Mathematical Framework for Modelling Ur- ban Travel Behavior; John Havens. 4. Issues in the Analysis of Attitudes (Attitude Theory); Marc Fried. 5. Attitudes toward Transportation; Marc Fried. 6. The Theory of Decision Dilemmas and Directions; John Havens. 7. Residential Mobility, Residential Location and Travel Behavior; Matthew Thall. 8. Spatial Cognition and Transportation; Deana D. Rhodeside. 9. A Review of Temporal Cognition; Daniel Rogan. Research was continued as Project 8-14A. It is incor porating key elements of the synthesized theory into pres ent travel demand forecast methods. Project 8-14A FY '77 New Approaches to Unclerstanding Travel Be- havior: Phase I! Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Charles River Associates Peter Allaman January 1, 1978 June 30, 1982 $221,250 NCHRP Project 8-14 initiated development of a new approach to understanding travel behavior, concentrating on social and psychological relationships between indi- viduals and their households as they exist in spatial lay- outs. The research carefully reviewed sociology and psychology literature as well as related fields that pertain to travel behavior. From this, a number of elements were identified that would assist in development of a theory, or theories, of travel behavior. Because of the complexity and extensiveness of the elements proposed, it was further determined that research (Phase II) would concentrate on testing three key elements relating to individual and household behavior and incorporating those elements into operational travel forecasting procedures, such as the Ur- ban Transportation Planning System. The key elements (or concepts) tested included the following: 1. Activity and travel patterns can be related to de- mographic descriptors such as social class, ethnicity, life cycle, and lifestyle.

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127 2. Intervening factors between activity and travel pat- terns include social roles and resource constraints. 3. Household activity choice, duration, scheduling, and location determine travel. Explicitly excluded from consideration were potential models developed from theories of adaptive processes. Although this is a valid subject for future research, the timeliness of useful travel forecasting techniques coming from these theories was questionable. The interim report, entitled "Behavioral Science Con- cepts for Transportation Planners," is available on mi- crofiche (see final page of this section for ordering information). The project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 250, "New Approaches to Understanding Travel Behavior." Project 8-15 FY '75 State and Regional Transportation Impact Identification and Measurement Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Bigelow-Crain Associates Charles D. Bigelow September 1, 1974 May 31, 1976 $80,000 The general objective of this research was to develop an improved understanding of specific, and operational, impact identification and measurement techniques, for use by transportation agencies in contributing to a variety of State and regional transportation decisions. To achieve the stated objective, the research was conducted in two phases. Phase I documented specific identification and mea- surement techniques in contrast to issues of impact eval- uation. The investigation considered the direct and indirect impacts of economic development; land use and housing; air, noise, and water quality; energy utilization; natural resources and ecosystems; and social and com- munity structure. The Phase I report, "State and Regional Transportation Impact Identification and Measurement," was not pub- lished. Loan copies are available upon written request to the NCHRP or microfiche may be purchased (see final page of this section for ordering information). Project 8-1 5A FY '75 Economic Impacts of State Transportation Policies and Programs Research Agency: Principal Invest.: E~echre Date: Completion Date: Funds: Regional Science Research Institute Dr. Benjamin H. Stevens October 1, 1977 March 31, 1980 $1 17,852 The identification of social, economic, environmental, and energy impact measurement techniques for use by state and regional transportation agencies was undertaken in NCHRP Project 8-15, "State and Regional Transpor- tation Impact Identification and Measurement." This first phase of a two-phase project resulted in an extensive summary of existing impact measurement techniques and identified a wide range of related research needs. The objective of the second phase, NCHRP Project 8-15A, was to demonstrate the usefulness of available techniques that estimate the impact of alternative trans- port policies and/or programs on economic activities, and to document the techniques in the form of operating guidelines and demonstration results. The scale of analysis was at the statewide and/or economic region levels rather than urban, and the techniques selected for demonstration included regional input-output analysis and econometric simulation models. The final report contains a set of guidelines to petit state and/or regional agencies to apply the techniques to policy and/or program alternatives. Two handbooks were prepared: (1) basic input-output analysis, and (2) fore- casting and policy simulation. The final report and handbooks were not published; however, loan copies are available upon written request to the NCHRP or microfiche may be purchased (see final page of this section for ordering information). Two computer programs are also available from the NCHRP. The input-output model, including two com- puter tapes, may be purchased for $60 if NCHRP provides the tapes or $20 if the requester provides blank tapes. The forecasting and policy simulation model may be pur- chased for $30 on NCHRP's tape or $10 on the requester's tape. Project 8-16 FY ,76 Guidelines for Public Transportation Levels of Service and Evaluation Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: University of Tennessee Ray A. Mundy Kenneth W. Heathington January 1, 1976 December 31, 1980 $489,952 Project 8-16 was initiated in order to develop a method that would be used by planners to provide public officials with the desired information and direction for local pub- lic-transportation actions. The initial 12-month period of the project was spent conducting an in-depth analysis of present procedures and practices of the urban mass transit industry. Included in this effort were research team visits to 18 urban areas within the United States. From this research process, a descriptive, comprehensive, planning model was developed depicting the necessary information and procedural steps required for the application of mar

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128 Let opportunity analysis (from the private business world) to the planning of short-range public transportation. As depicted in the model, the application of market oppor- tunity analysis requires both direction from policy deci- sion areas and data from an engineering data base. When applied, the market segments are identified, the trans- portation needs are determined, a transportation system is developed to meet the needs, and the system is tested. The model was tested in a neighborhood of Jacksonville, Florida, and is considered applicable to cities in the 50,000 to 500,000 population range. Research was completed, and the project report pub- lished in five volumes, as follows: NCHRP Report 208, "Market Opportunity Analysis for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning Procedures for Evaluating Al- ternative Service Concepts," presents a suggested general procedure to match desirable service attributes resulting from a market segmentation study with alternative service concepts to determine which alternative services are ap- propriate for a local area. Alternative service concepts were classified as to vehicle type, degree of right-of-way control, and operational strategy (routing, scheduling, and stop location). Also presented are generalized break- even curves for conventional bus, express bus, demand responsive, and ridesharing services. Because various in- stitutional factors (e.g., work rules, public vs. private pro- vider) can greatly affect costs, it is recommended that the planner first complete a rough feasibility analysis to limit the range of alternatives and then perform a "customized" cost analysis. It is proposed that many institutional bar- riers can be overcome if a viable cost-effective concept can be identified. NCHRP Report 209, "Market Opportunity Analysis for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning Trans- portation Services for the Transportation Disadvan- taged," addresses issues arising from the provisions of recent legislation and regulations. Social and economic impacts are substantial. Recommendations are developed on the premise that existing legislation and regulations are susceptible to change. Through an elucidation of the issues and alternative courses of action, this report should help in future selection of more efficient, economical, and socially acceptable approaches. NCHRP Report 210, "Market Opportunity Analysis for Short Range Public Transportation Planning-Eco- nomic, Energy, and Environmental Impacts," contains the recommendation that impact analyses be based on expected market utilization instead of theoretical system capacities. Information is provided both for the Engi- neering Data Base and the Service Design sections of the model. The findings described in the report will assist the analyst in structuring information to permit an analysis of various public transportation service alternatives in meeting specified objectives even though the objectives may be in conflict. NCHRP Report 211, "Market Opportunity Analysis for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning "Goals and Policy Development, Institutional Con- straints, and Alternative Organizational Arrangements," presents discussions of the rationale and procedural steps necessary to develop workable goals for urban public transportation. Without such direction, little guidance is given to the decision-maker as to what markets to con- centrate on and how to measure systemwide performance. The report addresses the task of determining goals and policies, as well as the issues involved in preparing a goal/policy statement, for public transportation in an urban community. The information developed should serve as a guide for planners responsible for coordinating goal/policy development activities in an urban commu- nity. Also addressed are the critical institutional issues that transportation planner and decision-makers must face when attempting to provide new or improved public trans- portation services. Various federal, state, and local reg- ulatory and institutional patterns have developed for the provision of urban public transportation services. A thor- ough understanding of these issues is necessary in order to involve both public and private operators in the pro- vision of public transportation services. The prospective opportunities for new private and minority firms to begin public transportation services have been developed as an integral part of this report. The report also provides information from which policy decisions can be made regarding appropriate organiza- tional arrangements for providing public transportation services. This material should be of use to two major groups: (a) agencies having the responsibility for devel- oping and implementing the organizational structure for planning and providing public transportation and services at the local level, and (b) agencies having the responsibility for planning, designing, implementing, and operating pub- lic transportation services at the local level. It is stressed in this report that with a market-oriented public trans- portation system management approach the organiza- tional structure must be tailored to the needs of the local area's needs and political environment. NCHRP Report 212, "Market Opportunity Analysis for Short-Range Public Transportation Planning Method and Demonstration," adds substantially to the body of knowledge concerning short-range public trans- portation planning for cities in the 50,000 to 500,000 population range. A descriptive comprehensive planning model was developed depicting the necessary information and procedural steps required for the application of mar- ket opportunity analysis (from the private business world) to public transportation planning. As depicted in the model the application of market opportunity analysis re- quires both direction from policy decision areas and data from an engineering data base. When applied, the market needs are determined, a transportation system is devel- oped to meet the needs, and the system is tested. The

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129 model was tested in a neighborhood of Jacksonville, Flor- ida, at a cost of approximately $100,000. The report con- cludes that further demonstration of the planning model will be required to determine whether the benefits from application outweigh the costs of data collection. If the entire process were duplicated in another test city, the costs would be expected to be 50 to 60 percent of the initial effort. Each report is aimed at one specific segment of the overall concept model; together they provide comprehen- sive guidelines for public transportation officials covering the three primary activities described in the model policy, marketing, and engineering. Project 8-17 FY '76 Freight Data Requirements for Statewide Transportation Systems Planning Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Roger Creighton Associates, Inc. Frederick W. Memmott Richard B. Blackwell Julyl5,1975 February 15, 1977 $231,147 The general objective of this research was, first, to determine the type, amount, and relative importance of freight data required to develop statewide transportation system plans; and, second, to design and develop tech- niques, methods, and procedures for assembling these data. This research was conducted in two phases. Specific tasks completed in Phase I were to: 1. Identify the types of freight data necessary for state- wide transportation systems planning purposes. Recom- mend what type of data and the scale of detail that will be required in view of the current and proposed planning methodologies. 2. Rank these data requirements in terms of their rel- ative importance to statewide transportation systems planning. 3. Given the data requirements, catalogue and deter- mine the existence of available data in reference to the planning data requirements determined in Task 1. Inves- tigate the institutional problems and constraints in the use of freight data (e.g., disclosure restrictions, proprie- tary nature of shipper and carrier data, and joint use and reciprocity agreements among private and public parties). 4. Identify deficiencies in existing freight data and eval- uate the criticality of such deficiencies to statewide trans- portation systems planning. 5. Develop and evaluate alternative strategies for re- solving such deficiencies. Specific tasks completed in Phase II were to: 1. Prepare a manual describing in detail appropriate techniques for the assembly and understanding of existing freight data and the collection and understanding of such additional data as may be required by statewide trans- portation systems planning. 2. Provide illustrative, realistic examples of how to apply these techniques to typical problems encountered in statewide transportation systems planning. Research has been completed, and the two-volume proj- ect report has been published as: NCHRP Report 177, "Freight Data Requirements for Statewide Transporta- tion Systems Planning Research Report;" and NCHRP Report 178, "Freight Data Requirements for Statewide Transportation Systems Planning User's Manual." Project 8-18 FY '76 Techniques for Evaluating Options in State- wide Transportation Planning/ Program- ming Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Planning Environment Interna- tional, A Division of Alan M. Voorhees & Associates Dr. Salvatore J. Bellomo Dr. Joseph R. Stowers September 1, 1975 June 30, 1978 $300,393 The general objective of this research was to provide transportation planning methodologies that are policy- sensitive, allowing the testing and evaluation of options to produce timely results for decision-making. This re- search addressed reasonable-cost, sketch-planning-type techniques having an application to issues of statewide transportation planning as part of the programming proc- ess. This research was conducted in two phases. Phase I has been completed, and the final report has been published as: NCHRP Report 179, "Evaluating Op- tions in Statewide Transportation Planning/Program- ming Issues, Techniques, and Their Relationships." A comprehensive classification of transportation issues, data requirements, and existing techniques is included. Phase II, consisting of test applications in Maryland (priority programming system PPS), Georgia (energy conservation forecasting techniques), and Kentucky (highway user revenue model HURM, and short-range capital resource availability model SCRAM), has also been completed, and the final report has been published as: NCHRP Report 199, "Evaluating Options in State- wide Transportation Planning/Programming Tech- niques and Applications." The computer programs for PPS, HURM, and SCRAM may be purchased upon writ- ten request to the NCHRP.

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130 Project 8-19 FY ,77 The Relationship of Changes in Urban High- way Supply to Vehicle-Miles of Travel Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Earl R. Ruiter December 1, 1976 November 30, 1978 $199,954 The objective of this project was to determine whether a relationship exists between measures describing urban highway supply and vehicle-miles of travel (VMT) and, if so, to quantify the relationship for practicing planners through preparation of appropriate graphs and nomo- graphs. The research approach hypothesized that VMT can only be expressed and predicted in terms of its compo- nents vehicle trips and vehicle trip lengths if it is to be validly predicted. These components, in turn, were predicted using a structural model system one which employs both travel demand and supply models in a framework which approximates network equilibrium. The recognition of trips, and not VMT, as the appropriate unit for measuring demand was the key to the research approach. The research results indicate that VMT changes do occur as highway supply changes, but the changes are small (e.g., 72 percent in the peak hour for a new urban freeway) and the relationship is a complex one. To quan- tify the relationship, the following variables must be con- sidered: trip frequency, trip distance, auto occupancy, and mode split. Different results may be anticipated depending upon (1) the type of highway supply change, (2) the scale of the highway supply change, (3) the context within which the supply change takes place, and (4) the time scale. The complexity of the relationship has two impor- tant consequences: first the direction of VMT change for a given highway supply change can vary; second, there are many variables that affect both the direction and the magnitude of VMT changes. Because the model system was applied to only two highway supply cases, it was not possible to develop the graphs and Homographs needed to quantify the relation- ship. Nevertheless, short-range results for two urban ra- dial freeway cases (1) new construction and (2) expansion were obtained. For the new freeway case, VMT increased as highway supply increased, both in peak and off-peak periods. In the freeway expansion case, peak-period VMT increases were offset by off-peak decreases to produce a slight, overall decrease in VMT. The most important com- ponents of VMT changes for both facilities were total person trips, which increased; and average trip distance, which decreased. Less important (by an order of mag- nitude) were the auto mode split and auto occupancy components. None of the existing, aggregate, areawide VMT models was successful in matching the model system results ob tained in this project for both test facilities. Although this fact in itself did not invalidate either modeling approach, it did suggest that areawide models are severely limited in their potential usefulness because they fail to consider differences in types of highway supply changes. Although VMT increased for one test facility, and slightly decreased for the other, VMT-related impacts for both cases generally improved when studied at the urban area level. Measures of urban mobility, quality of travel service, air quality (with the exception of the relatively less critical level of NOX pollutants), fuel consumption, and travel safety all were improved. Two measures, directly relating VMT and highway supply, were recommended. These were the fraction of new capacity "used" (A VMT/A VMC) and the elasticity of VMT with respect to vehicle-miles of capacity (E [VMT/VMC]~. Microfiche of the agency final draft report is available and the results are summarized in Research Results Di- gest 127 (see final page of this section for ordering in- formation). Project 8-20 FY '78 Improved Methods for Vehicle Counting and Determining Vehicle-Miles of Travel Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effechre Date: Completion Date: Funds: John Hamburg & Associates Charles C. Francis, Jr. January 2, 1978 July31,1980 $200,000 The objective of this research was to develop improved cost-effective procedures for conducting highway vehicle counting programs and determining vehicle-miles of travel (VMT). Research addressed the collection of traffic counts, processing of such counts, and production and use of traffic information. Although the primary thrust of the research was directed toward state-level programs, the findings include appropriate applications at sub-state, rural, and urban jurisdictional levels. A three-volume final report was prepared: (1) State of the Art, (2) Traffic Counting Program Design, and (3) Idealized Traffic Volume Information System. Loan cop- ies are available or microfiche of the report may be pur- chased (see final page of this section for ordering information). Project 8-21 FY ,79 Guidelines for Use of Vanpools and Carpools as a Transportation System Management Technique Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: George Washington University Marian Misch Joseph Margolin March 1, 1979 June 30, 1981 $265,486

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131 The general objective of this research was to identify effective policies and their impacts to encourage van- pooling and carpooling use based on an understanding of individual and household preferences and behavior. Spe- cifically, the research analyzed individual and household attitudes, preferences, and behaviors related to rideshar- ing. The goal was to use the analysis results to develop a manual for transportation practitioners and policy-mak- ers for selecting techniques that are compatible with other TSM strategies and were likely to result in significant increases in ridesharing over the short term (2 to 5 years). The manual is designed to assist both existing and new ridesharing agencies in their continuing development as successful, community-oriented service organizations. It integrates the results of literature search, contacts with local ridesharing agencies, and findings from decision analysis panels and surveys conducted in four metropol- itan areas of the United States. The manual provides guidelines for the several stages that any local ridesharing agency will experience in setting up a community ride- sharing program; it also details these stages, which are briefly described as follows: . Understanding the goals and nature of ridesharing and of ridesharers. . Understanding the community conditions and char- acteristics that affect ridesharing programs. . Adopting program design guidelines or policies suited to the community and its commuters. . Planning the ridesharing program. . Implementing the program. . Operating the program while encouraging and/or responding to indirect incentives, such as high occupancy vehicle lanes. . Evaluating and improving the program. Research has been completed and the manual has been published as: NCHRP Report 241, "Guidelines for Using Vanpools and Carpools as a TSM Technique." Appendix D of the project report summarizes the research findings on which the manual is based. Detailed findings and sur- vey data are documented in the agency's final report, "Using Vanpools and Carpools as a Transportation Sys- tem Management Technique: Research Report." The agency research report may be purchased for $1 1.50. Mi- crofiche is also available. See final page of this section for ordering information. Project 8-22 FY ,79 Transportation Financing Within the Context of Energy Constraints Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: System Design Concepts, Inc. Dr. Joseph R. Stowers March 26, 1979 February 27, 1981 $100,000 The general objective of this research was to determine the impacts of energy conservation policies and proposals on state transportation financing. A methodology was developed to enable States to assess the impact of existing and proposed energy conservation policies on travel and fuel consumption and to determine user and non-user impacts on the various revenue sources currently used to finance highway construction, operation, and mainte- nance. The research identified possible modifications of exist- ing State-level revenue sources and/or proposed new sources which would lend themselves to creating some stability and reasonable growth in future over-all highway transportation funding. The researchers reviewed procedures used at the na- tional and state levels to estimate vehicle-miles of travel and fuel consumption. The procedures included trend- based methods, econometric models, and less complex techniques. Also, revenue sources for each state were summarized. A catalog and description of applicable methodologies and supporting state and national baseline data that are available to the states to predict highway travel and fuel consumption in their jurisdictions under existing and proposed energy conservation policies were developed. Research has been completed, and the findings have been published as: NCHRP Report 231, "State Trans- portation Finance Within the Context of Energy Con- straints." Project 8-23 FY '79 Fuel Supply Limitations and Passenger Travel Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Charles River Assoc., Inc. Timothy Tardiff April 2, 1979 September 1, 1980 $1 10,000 The research project synthesized planning methods, appropriate for use by professional planners, to evaluate policy alternatives for likely future energy shortfall sce- narios. These methods were applied to four energy-defi- cient scenarios and the resulting changes in travel estimated. The four scenarios were based on a literature review and evaluation of current events during the course of the research. These scenarios considered magnitude, frequency, and duration of shortfall, gasoline price, and government actions to conserve gasoline (odd/even pur- chasing, gasoline rationing, etch. Methods chosen were incremental logit models for work trips and linear equa- tion models for nonwork trips. For the four scenarios, policy alternatives were evaluated in terms of modal shares, VMT, bus miles of travel, private vehicle fuel consumption and transit fuel consumption. A comparison of scenario testing results with the selected models pro- vided an indication of the relative effects of price, con

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132 tingency actions, and sticker plan on fuel consumption. Contingency actions included free tolls for carpools, bus priority treatment at intersections and traffic signals. ex- clusive contraflow bus lanes on highways, increases in parking fees, and reductions in on-street parking. Driving restriction imposed by the sticker plan led to the highest reduction in private vehicle fuel consumption. The second highest reduction resulted from higher gasoline prices in the range of $2.00 to $3.00 per gallon. Research has been completed, and the project report has been published as: NCHRP Report 229, "Fuel Supply Limitations and Passenger Travel." Project 8-24 FY '80 Forecasting the Basic Inputs to Transporta- tion Planning Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Effective Date: Completion Date: Funds: John Hamburg & Associates, Inc. Dr. George T. Lathrop January 21, 1980 April30, 1982 $8 1,000 The research has produced a concise reference for transportation planners concerned with using projected socioeconomic and demographic characteristics in trans- portation planning. Guidance is provided on the accuracy and usefulness of various projection techniques for various levels of aggregation and periods of time. Two general areas of research were pursued: 1. The sensitivity of the transportation planning proc- ess, particularly trip generation, to variation in input socioeconomic and demographic variables. 2. Review and evaluation of methodology for produc- ing study area level projections either on the basis of other projections or independently. Research has been completed and results have been published in NCHRP Report 266, "Forecasting Inputs to Transportation Planning." Project 8-24A FY '83 Forecasting the Basic Inputs to Transporta- tion Planning at the Tonal Level Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: COMSIS Corporation Arthur B. Sosslau April 1, 1987 June 1, 1989 $200,000 Transportation planners forecast travel demand on the basis of anticipated changes in socioeconomic variables such as population, employment, vehicle availability, in- come, and household size. Errors in the forecasts of these variables can lead to substantial errors in information provided to decision-makers in the evaluation of trans- portation alternatives. NCHRP Project 8-24 investigated and reported on a portion of this problem area, specifically the preparation of aggregate forecasts for sub-state areas. It examined the sensitivity of the process (and particularly its first step, trip generation) to differences (or errors) in input. However, no analysis of the sensitivity of the proc- ess to disaggregation or variation in aggregation was performed. This continuation project investigates the availability and utility of methods to produce forecasts for units of sub-county levels of geography, typically traffic zones, either by downward allocation of sub-state forecasts or by direct means. A problem that frequently arises is that the various techniques used to forecast socioeconomic variables pro- duce significantly different results. Some forecasting tech- niques produce data that are incomplete or lack sufficient detail for travel estimates and impact assessments. Recent demographic trends have demonstrated that extraordinary changes in the relationships between pop- ulation, households, and labor force are not effectively treated in many existing forecasting procedures. Many jurisdictions are encountering more volatile growth pat- terns that demand a great sensitivity in forecasting meth- ods. Moreover, changing demands on the planning process, including more project-oriented activities, and a frequent need for quick response have changed forecasting requirements. Planning agencies face three types of circumstances in forecasting for sub-county areas: (1) top-down allocation mandated by the state in cooperation with the localities; (2) competing forecasts for localities, which must be rec- onciled; and (3) a lack of available forecasts from outside authorities. State and local planners need assistance in choosing techniques to respond to these problems. Research is needed to document techniques that: (1) have been usefully applied by planning agencies, (2) are applicable at any sub-county level of aggregation, (3) are accurate for intended purposes, (4) are responsive to cur- rent planning needs, (5) have well-defined areas of ap- plication, and (6) can be implemented and updated by users who do not possess a sophisticated demographic, economic, or statistical background. The objective of this research is to extend the work documented in NCHRP Report 266 to describe and eval- uate techniques for determining and forecasting the input variables critical for estimating transportation demand at the sub-county geographic level. To accomplish this ob- jective, the following tasks will be performed: Task 1- Representative methods for allocating or otherwise forecasting socioeconomic variables at the zonal level for large and small urban areas will be selected. At least, the following variables will be considered: popula- tion, households, employment by place of residence, workers by place of work, automobiles, and income. Agency sources, such as state DOTs and MPOs, will be used as well as traditional literature sources. The effec- tiveness of the selected methods will be briefly described ~, .

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133 relative to extent of use, cost, simplicity, documentation, and software availability. Task 2-The evaluation criteria to be used in Task 4 for each of the techniques to be considered will be iden- tified. Task 3-An interim report presenting the findings of the first two tasks will be prepared. This report will pro- vide the basis for panel determination as to whether or not to proceed with the remainder of the research. Task 4-This evaluation task will expand on the find- ings of Tasks 1 and 2: Subtask 4.1 Applicable procedures and techniques for allocation or other forecasting procedures concerning population, jobs, households, vehicle ownership and avail- ability, employment characteristics, income, and such other variables as are necessary for applications in trans- portation planning at the sub-county geographic level will be described and characterized. The descriptions and characterizations will clarify differences among and ap- propriateness of each procedure identified. Constraints or conditions under which each procedure is applied will be listed and described. Subtask 4.2 For each of the procedures described in Subtask 4.1, discuss conditions of applicability, i.e., where and under what circumstances can such procedures be applied, and how universal or limited is the application. Subtask 4.3-For each of the procedures described, discuss the types and level of skill necessary to apply the forecasting techniques in transportation planning situa- tions. In addition, effectiveness of performance of these techniques (for example, the adequacy of forecasts for the desired levels of application) will be addressed. Subtask 4.4 Concise numerical examples illustrating how each method is applied will be provided. The ex- amples will clearly show data inputs and sources, step- by-step procedures of application, and output and its for- mat. The data sources will be completely described and serve as guides to application by local planners (e.g., census data, local surveys, other sources). Where com- puter application is involved, software references will be provided. Subtask 4.5 The advantages and disadvantages of each technique will be discussed. The discussion will in- clude but not be limited to data needs, required skills, ease of application, output products, and costs. Task 5 Research on zonal disaggregation problems will be addressed. The researcher will examine the sen- sitivity of final estimates of travel demand, i.e., link and line volumes, to changes in values, definitions, and di- mensions of socio-input variables at the zonal level. Task 6 A final report will be prepared documenting the research findings. To the extent practical the report will be prepared in a format suitable for use as a manual of practice for state and local transportation planners, specifically showing the individual steps to be taken in applying each method. Tasks 1 through 4 have been completed and work is underway on Task 5 sensitivity testing. The project com- pletion date was extended 6 months because of problems encountered in the selection, arranging, and scheduling of the sensitivity tests. Project 8-25 FY '80 intermits Bus Transportation Planning Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. John F. DiRenzo April 1, 1980 January 31, 1982 $200,000 The objective of this research was to investigate in- tercity travel requirements, including those of small urban and rural areas, and to evaluate the role and potential of intercity bus services in meeting those requirements. Procedures were developed to determine appropriate level-of-service requirements for intercity bus services. The procedures are designed for use by state and local transportation planners as a means of identifying the rel- ative needs of communities or sets of communities for intercity bus transportation, and as a tool for prioritizing the potential recipients of public assistance for the pro- vision of such services. Alternative bus service designs were developed that utilize the potential resources of intercity bus carriers to satisfy the public transportation requirements. The alter- native service options include using smaller size vehicles, employing student or part-time drivers, truncating or ex- tending a route, changing service frequencies, using local or regional operators, adding new stops, altering sched- ules, and coordinating service with local rural transit operations. The feasibility of these options was tested through case study applications in selected intercity cor- ridors in California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina. Actions state and local agencies can take to help the intercity bus operators meet the intercity service require- ments were also identified. These actions include financial assistance such as fuel tax relief, registration fee reduc- tions, and direct terminal equipment and operating grants; technical assistance such as distribution of intercity bus information, marketing, providing input to terminal lo- cation decisions, and coordination with other modes; and removal of regulatory and other barriers to intercity bus travel, as well as initiation of positive incentives to en- courage greater utilization of services. Research has been completed. The agency report has been distributed to the Program sponsors and other in- terested persons. It will not be published in the regular NCHRP report series but is available on a loan basis or microfiche of the report may be purchased (see final page of this section for ordering information).

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134 Project 8-26 FY '81 Development of Highway Traffic Data for Project Planning and Design in Urbanized Areas Research Agency: JHK & Associates Principal Invest.: Neil J. Pedersen Elective Date: May 15, 1981 Completion Date: December 31, 1982 Funds: $100,000 The objectives of this research were to (1) identify, review, and evaluate typical procedures currently being used to develop highway traffic data for project planning and design in urbanized areas; and (2) using existing techniques to the maximum extent possible, develop a user-oriented manual containing procedures for the full range of planning and design needs together with illus- trative case studies. Procedures and analysis techniques that have been proven reasonably successful were grouped and critiqued in terms of criteria including required degree of precision, resource requirements, ability to replicate the effort, and rationale. In addition, input data requirements such as system-level assignments, historical traffic count data, land-use information, and other factors were addressed. A user-oriented manual was developed describing rec- ommended procedures. Each procedure includes a com- mentary describing the benefits, shortcomings, and the circumstances that may require alternative steps. Design project "cases" with appropriate traffic estimating steps are described. Cases were selected to ensure coverage of the full range of applications and include: (1) use of re- finement procedures for upgrading of a limited access highway, (2) use of windowing procedures for evaluating an arterial improvement, and (3) application of proce- dures to highway design. Research has been completed, and the final report has been published as: NCHRP Report 255, "Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized Area Project Planning and Design." Project 8-27 FY '80 Cost-Effectiveness of Transportation Services for Handicapped Persons Research Agency: Principal Invest.: Elective Date: Completion Date: Funds: Transportation Center University of Tennessee Kenneth W. Heathington Frederick J. Wegmann September 1, 1981 April30, 1983 $199,543 The objectives of this research were to determine the cost effectiveness of alternative transportation services for handicapped persons and to develop guidelines for state and local planners, transportation providers, and decision- makers on determining the most cost-effective way of meeting the transportation needs of handicapped people. The research conducted under NCHRP Project 8-27 has resulted in the publication of two documents: NCHRP Report 261, "Cost-Effectiveness of Transportation Ser- vices for Handicapped Persons Research Report," and NCHRP Report 262, "Planning Transportation Services for Handicapped Persons User's Guide." NCHRP Re- port 261 documents the results of a study of the cost- effectiveness of alternative transportation services for handicapped persons. The companion document (NCHRP Report 262) provides planners and decision- makers with guidelines on how to evaluate alternative transportation services for handicapped persons and to identify the most cost-effective solutions for their com- munities. Project 8-28 FY '87 Strategic Planning and Management for Transportation Agencies Research Agency: Ernst & Whinney Principal Invest.: Gene Tyndall Elective Date: June 1, 1987 Completion Date: September 30, 1988 Funds: $ 180,000 Unlike the period from the end of World War II through the mid-1960's, which was generally character- ized by stable economic growth and social and public policy environments, the 1970's and 1980's have been affected by an accelerating pace of change in economic, social, technological, and public policy factors. These fac- tors interact in ways that require new efforts to properly position organizations in future operating environments. Institutions must develop mechanisms to assure adapta- tion to the ever-changing environment. The need for new management systems incorporating more effective means of identifying new directions for organizations and shifts in allocation of resources to im- plement change was first recognized by the private sector. Strategic planning was initiated by large U.S. corporations in the late 1960's and early 1970's. Because of dissatis- faction with the results of strategic planning when it was conceived and applied only as a planning function, many corporations are expanding their approach to strategic management. In applying strategic management, the skill of strategic planning is practiced at all levels of the or- ganization and is integrated into all other management systems to assure the "fit" of strategy to an organization. The expected result is a major improvement in organi- zational effectiveness. By the late 1970's strategic approaches had begun to be applied in a few public transportation agencies. Re- search is now needed to determine the status of strategic planning and management in public sector transportation agencies, to develop an understanding of which ap- proaches are applicable and effective in public agencies, and to identify potential pitfalls. The results of the re- search should provide transportation agencies with guide