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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities

Climate Research Committee

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agency.

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Cover: The cover design represents the environmental, human, and computational elements that underlie climate modeling. The equations in the design are a form of the so-called “primitive equations,” which are included in all dynamical climate models. The photograph is by Peggy June Ostrom Schultz, an artist in Newark, Delaware.

Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Climate Research Committee

Members

THOMAS R. KARL (Chair), National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina

ROBERT E. DICKINSON (Vice Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson

MAURICE BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

BERT BOLIN, Osterskar, Sweden

JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara

JAMES GIRAYTYS, Consultant, Winchester, Virginia

JAMES E. HANSEN, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, N.Y.

PHILIP E. MERILEES, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California

ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN, Columbia University, New York

S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of New Hampshire, Durham

STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula

EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle

WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

KARL E. TAYLOR, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

ANNE M. THOMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

Ex Officio Members

W. LAWRENCE GATES, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson

PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder

NRC Staff

PETER SCHULTZ, Study Director

LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer (ending September 31, 1998)

TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Members

ERIC J. BARRON (Co-chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park

JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.

SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder

LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany

MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook

DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson

JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island

CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts

THOMAS J. LENNON, Sonalysts, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia

MARK R. SCHOEBERL, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

JOANNE SIMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland

NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts

NRC Staff

ELBERT W. (Joe) FRIDAY, Jr., Director

H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer (ending December 31, 1998)

DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer

LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer

PETER SCHULTZ, Program Officer

DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant

ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate

TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant

CARTER FORD, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Page v

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

Members

GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville

PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle

B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California

THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.

KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts

JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.

HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia

RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario

H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens

THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park

VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida

E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park

MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California

NRC Staff

ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director

GREGORY H. SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director

JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer

SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate

MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Page vi

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Preface

This report responds to an oral request by two U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) agency program managers, Michael Hall of NOAA and Jay Fein of NSF, made at the Climate Research Committee (CRC) meeting held on October 15-17, 1997, and as part of an understanding with Mike MacCracken of the USGCRP Program Office. In June 1996, the CRC and the USGCRP co-hosted a forum on the status and infrastructure needs of climate modeling in the United States. Prior to the forum, public discussion on the organization of the U.S. climate modeling community and the adequacy of resources available to it had been spurred by four prominent climate research scientists in an open letter (October 1995) to USGCRP principals and widely circulated to the climate research community (See Appendix A). In this letter they asserted that the “American [climate modeling] effort is falling seriously behind that of Europe and, perhaps, Japan,” and expressed concern that the United States was in danger of being “relegated to permanent second-class status in this critical area of Earth science research.” They went on to outline three strategic options for regaining the lead in global climate modeling. The issues raised in this letter remain largely unresolved and, subsequently, other related issues have also been raised. In particular, some have questioned the adequacy of the present organization of the U.S. climate modeling community to respond to the

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Page viii

challenge of participation in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the sufficiency of computer facilities available within the United States to serve this purpose.

This report is intended to inform USGCRP agencies on issues related to the capability of U.S. climate modeling efforts to support national and international climate assessments, and the sufficiency of computational resources available for this purpose. In this report, the committee will address three specific questions:

1. Do USGCRP agencies have a coordinated approach for prioritizing from a national perspective their climate modeling research and assessment efforts?

2. Are resources allocated effectively to address such priorities?

3. How can the U.S. climate modeling community make more efficient use of its available resources?

The Climate Research Committee hopes that federal agencies and the USGCRP will find this report useful as they work to enhance the contribution that the U.S. climate research community can make to national and international assessments of climate change.

THOMAS KARL, CHAIR

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Page ix

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson

JERRY MAHLMAN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

LINDA MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

ROGER PIELKE, Jr., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Page x

CHESTER F. ROPELEWSKI, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York

MICHAEL SCHLESINGER, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

JOHN M. WALLACE, University of Washington, Seattle

WARREN WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

TOM WIGLEY, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Page xi

Contents

Executive Summary

1

Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling

7

Background

7

Policy Context

8

Current Small and Intermediate Modeling Capabilities

9

Current High-End Modeling Capabilities and Needs

10

Access to Foreign Model Output

13

Priority Setting

15

Coordination

16

Allocating Resources

20

Recent Developments Relevant to this Report: Computational Capabilities and Coordination

22

Conclusions

24

References

30

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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Appendix A-Letter from Barnett, Randall, Semtner, and Somerville

31

Appendix B-Statement of Task

37

Appendix C-CRC Climate Modeling Workshop Invitation and Agenda

39

Appendix D-Examples of Access Restrictions on Foreign Atmospheric Data

45

Appendix E-Correspondence from Bill Buzbee

47

• Letter to Tom Karl

47

• NCAR Measurements of Single Processor Performance

49

• A Sampling of Computing Systems in Major Atmospheric Modeling Centers Around the World

50

• Comments from UCAR to the International Trade Commission Hearing

57

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/6365.
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The U.S. government has pending before it the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is largely based on the threat GHGs pose to the global climate. Such an agreement would have significant economic and national security implications, and therefore any national policy decisions regarding this issue should rely in part on the best possible suite of scenarios from climate models.

The U.S. climate modeling research community is a world leader in intermediate and smaller climate modeling efforts-research that has been instrumental in improving the understanding of specific components of the climate system. Somewhat in contrast, the United States has been less prominent in producing high-end climate modeling results, which have been featured in recent international assessments of the impacts of climate change. The fact that U.S. contributions of these state-of-the-art results have been relatively sparse has prompted a number of prominent climate researchers to question the current organization and support of climate modeling research in the United States, and has led ultimately to this report.

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