Index
A
Africa, 16, 42, 43, 44, 48, 114
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 9, 40
Agency for International
Development, 70
Agricultural sector, ix, 11-12, 13, 14, 19, 26
climate parameters, general, 40, 90
coping strategies, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99
effects of climate variability, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 32, 68-70
encroachment on forests, 47
global warming, beliefs of farmers, 72-73
“green revolution” as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83, 119
information dissemination to, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109
insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138
market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58
usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117
see also Drought;
Food supply;
Rural areas
Asia
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8
monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90
see also specific countries
Atlantic Ocean, 16
North Atlantic Oscillation, 34
Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions
Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30
Attitudes see Beliefs;
Cultural factors
B
Beliefs, 3, 13, 16, 71-73, 118, 124, 134
fishery management, 46
human information processing, 73-74, 77, 81, 94
see also Cultural factors
Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37
see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions
Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68
C
California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50
Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134
Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22
Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131
information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127
ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37
sector/group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131
skill of forecasts, 37
traditional forecasts, 72
usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127
see also Atmospheric pressure;
Precipitation;
Temperature factors
Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48
see also Tropical storms
Communication
between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84
see also Information dissemination;
Participatory approaches;
Risk communication
Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125 , 126, 136-140
El Niño, 7-10
see also Distribution of costs and benefits;
Effects of climate variations/forecasts
Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126-127, 129, 130-131
agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49-50, 51, 58, 98-99
cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68
cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62
decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62
developing countries, general, 42-43, 51
disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61
drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58
effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138
ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99
fisheries management, 45-46
flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59
forests and other ecosystems, 47-48
hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62
information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134
institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139
market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58;
see also "hedging" supra
organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57
theory of, 130-131
value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137
water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69
see also Emergency preparedness and response;
Insurance and reinsurance
Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119 , 120, 122-123
coping strategies, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 97
see also Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts;
Distribution of costs and benefits;
Effects of climate variations/forecasts
Cultural factors, 3, 4, 13, 40
beliefs about weather, 71-73, 77
coping strategies, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62
"green revolution" as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83
information dissemination and, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133
risk perception/behavior, 77
see also Beliefs
D
Decision making, general, x, xi, 12, 34, 35-36, 100, 101-102, 103-108, 111-112, 114-116
coping strategies, 38, 50-51, 59, 62
human information processing, model of, 73-74, 94
information dissemination, 63, 64-65
response to forecasting, 71, 72, 73-74, 90, 94
see also Uncertainty
Department of Energy, xi
Department of the Interior, see Bureau of Reclamation
Developing countries, general, ix, 8, 108
Global Telecommunications System, 20
see also Famine;
specific countries
Diet and nutrition, see Nutrition
Disasters, general, 1
emergency preparedness, 6, 53, 55-57
warnings, 80, 82-93, 85, 87, 88
see also Drought;
Emergency preparedness and response;
Emergency warning systems;
Famine;
Fires;
Floods;
Insurance and reinsurance;
Tropical storms;
Vulnerability to climate variations
Diseases and disorders, see Health effects
Dissemination of information, see Information dissemination
Distribution of costs and benefits
of climate variation, 97, 105-106
coping strategies, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61
forecast information, 66-67, 82-83, 86, 93-94
of improved forecasts, 6, 119, 122-123, 129, 139-140
Diversification, as coping strategy, 41, 44, 60
Drought, 14, 67-68, 83, 102, 140
coping strategies, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70
forecasts, 68-70
E
infectious diseases, 51-52
see also Fisheries;
Forests
Economic factors, 6, 8, 14, 35, 96, 113
models, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117
sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 93, 96, 97, 104 , 120, 133;
see also specific sectors
see also Agricultural sector;
Cost
and cost-benefit factors;
Developing countries;
Fisheries;
Forests;
Insurance and reinsurance;
Market forces;
Water supply
Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program, x
Education, see Information dissemination
Educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139
Effects of climate variations/forecasts, 5, 6, 95-123, 126, 136-140
agricultural sector, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123
coping strategies, general, 98-99, 108, 137, 138
defined, 96
El Niño, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134
insurance sector, 96, 97, 112, 139
models, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139
regional factors, 96, 104, 120
value of forecasting vs, 95-96
see also Consequences of climate variations/forecasts;
Distribution of costs and benefits
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, x, 1-2, 7-10, 16, 19, 23-34, 64, 68-70, 101, 109, 110, 127, 141
agricultural sector, 8, 32, 68-70
cost and cost-benefit factors, 8, 97
effects of forecasts, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134
information dissemination, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134
nowcasting, 31-32
precipitation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34
sea surface temperature, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34
spatial factors, 32-33
Emergency preparedness and response, 6, 35, 55-57, 59, 67, 70, 78-79, 82-83, 109
refugees, 8
Emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87, 88
Environmental protection, see Ecology;
Pro-environmental behavior
Ethical issues, see Legal/ethical issues
Europe, 16
F
Federal Emergency Management Agency, 112
Federal government, 95
agricultural insurance, 43, 64
funding, general, 95
reinsurance, 55
see also specific departments and agencies
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47
Fisheries, 32, 33-34, 45-46, 47-48, 62, 111
Floods, 7, 8, 13, 35, 50-51, 70, 97, 105
coping strategies, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59
cost and cost-benefit factors, 51, 112
forecasts, 51
warning systems, 86
Florida, 62
Food supply, ix, 14, 40, 57, 108
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9
see also Agricultural sector;
Famine;
Nutrition
Forecasting, general, x, 1-2, 7, 9-10
benefits of, 3, 10, 12-13, 15, 95, 101, 119, 130-133;
see also "usefulness" infra
consequences of, 2, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140
coping strategies and, general, 38, 39, 42-43, 44-45, 46, 50-51, 52, 54, 59, 60, 63
disparities of benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139
drought, 68-70
failures, 4, 10, 67-68, 69-70, 76, 113-114, 135
famine, 70-71
flood, 51
hindcasts, 24
response to forecasts, 67-77, 91-92, 138-139
sea surface temperature, 23
sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 93, 96, 97, 120, 133;
see also specific sectors
short-term, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134;
see also "nowcasting" supra
skill, general, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138;
see also "failures" supra
technology of, 18-29
traditional, 71-73
usefulness, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 125, 126, 127-128, 130
see also Information dissemination;
Information in climate forecasts;
Interannual variability;
Seasonal factors;
Uncertainty
Foreign countries
see also Developing countries;
International programs;
specific countries
agricultural encroachment, 47
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47
Foundation for Meteorological and Hydrological Resources (Brazil), 69
G
Global Change Research Program, 1
Global Telecommunications System, 20
Global warming, x, 13, 35, 72-73
disaster transfer payments, 13, 138
funding, 95
information dissemination, 87
see also Emergency preparedness and response;
Federal government;
State government
Greenhouse effect, see Global warming
H
Health effects, 35, 39, 51-52, 59-60, 66
coping strategies, general, 39, 51-52
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9, 51-52
emergency preparedness and response, 55, 90
see also Famine;
Food supply
public health information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88
risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88
Healthy behaviors, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88
Hedging strategies, 41-42, 44, 57-58, 60, 62
Hindcasts, 24
Historical perspectives, ix, 27-28, 38, 140-141
agricultural insurance, 43
climate indicators, 35
forecasting, general, 22-23
human information processing, 73-74
interannual changes, 11
numerical forecasting, 21
response to forecasts, 67-72, 91
Holdridge Life Ozone Classification, 35
Households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106
Human Relations Area Files, 71
Hurricanes, see Tropical storms
I
Impacts
see Consequences of climatic variations/forecasts;
Effects of climatic variations/forecasts
India, 32, 40, 42, 43-44, 82, 90, 103-104, 106
Individual responses, 4, 17, 38-39, 61, 66-67, 127
beliefs about weather and climate, 71-72
households, 11, 53, 62, 81, 85, 106
informational analogs to forecasts, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92
information processing, 73-77
see also Educational attainment;
Socioeconomic status
Indonesia, 47
Information dissemination, 2, 3-4, 36, 63-94, 111, 127-128, 133-136, 139
agricultural sector, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 80-83 (passim), 90, 109
analogies from fields outside climate forecasting, 79-87, 89, 91-92, 119
risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88
case studies of, 67-71
climate parameters, general, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127
cultural factors, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133
delivery systems, 3-4, 59, 81-84, 92-93, 128, 135-136
disaster warning as analog, 80, 82-86
educational attainment and, see Educational attainment
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134
emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 , 87
ethical and legal issues, 40, 136
see also Internet
green revolution as analog, 80, 82-83
hedging and, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62
individuals' responses, 4, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92
models of, 86-89
organizational responses, 4, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131 , 134-135, 139
participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133
persuasive communication, 85-86, 87, 93, 128
proenvironmental behavior as analog, 80-86
public health as analog, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88
redundancy, 81-82
risk communication as analog, 80, 87-88
socioeconomic status, and see Socioeconomic status
vulnerability and, 68, 83, 90, 94
see also Decision making;
Distribution of costs and benefits;
Information in climate forecasts;
Internet;
Learning theory;
Risk communication
Information in climate forecasts, 2-3, 63-67
authoritarian approaches, 87, 88
characteristics of, 79
coping strategies and, 60, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134
fishery management, 46
human information processing and, 73-77, 94
matching to recipient, 63-67, 81, 89-91, 127, 130-133
and nonclimatic information, 62
organizational responses, 77-79, 134-135
sources of, 81-82
uncertainty, 4, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135
understanding of, 3, 73-77, 133-134
See also Forecasting;
Information dissemination
Institute for Business and Home Safety, 55
Institutional factors
coping, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim), 54, 60, 99, 139
usefulness of forecasts, 64, 65, 122
see also Market forces;
Organizational factors
Insurance and reinsurance, 6, 7, 13, 14, 39, 42, 54-55, 59, 60, 123
agricultural sector, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138
effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 112, 139
industry organizational response, 78
informal, 43-44
usefulness of forecasts, 65-66, 67, 110, 120
Interannual variability, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 125
climate defined, 19
climate indices, 35
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
North Atlantic Oscillation
International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, 106
International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 105
International perspectives, see also Developing countries;
Foreign countries;
Regional factors;
specific countries and continents
International programs, x, 21, 105, 106
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, xi
Internet
beliefs about weather, 71
seasonal/interannual prediction, other, 19, 31, 55
L
Learning theory, 4, 30, 74, 75, 78, 79, 82, 92, 104, 128
Legal/ethical issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136
M
agricultural sector, coping strategies, 41-42, 44, 49, 57, 58
hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62
see also Insurance and reinsurance
Mass media, ix, 4, 7, 10, 16, 85-86, 92, 110, 134, 136
Mexico, 8, 47, 82-83, 88-89, 106, 109
Models and modeling, 1-2, 3, 114-115, 128-129
computable general equilibrium, 107-108
coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125
deterministic, 75, 79, 101, 102-103, 135
economic, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117
effects of climate variation, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139
firm-level decision models, 106-108
human information processing, 73-77, 94
individual's perceptions, 4, 17, 79-80, 81, 91
mesoscale, 33
NINO3 and, 27-28
see also "coupled..." supra
organizational responses to information, 77-78, 91-92, 131
participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133
scientific capability of, 100-108, 111-113, 121-122, 128-129
social factors, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125
value of climate forecasts, 110-111, 114-120
see also Statistical analyses
Monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90
N
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, xi
National Bureau of Economic Research, 35
National Flood Insurance Program, 55, 112
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, x-xi, 1-2
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 7
see also Office of Global Programs
National Science Foundation, xi
North Atlantic Oscillation, 34
El Niño, 31-32
Numerical models, see Statistical analyses
see also Famine;
Food supply
O
Ocean-atmosphere interactions, x, 23-24, 37
models, 1-2, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125
sea ice, 21
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
North Atlantic Oscillation;
Sea surface temperature
Office of Global Programs, x, xii, 52
Organizational factors, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 71, 106-107
coping strategies, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57
"groupthink," 78
new information, responses to, 77-79, 94, 128
response to information, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134-135, 139
Overconfidence in forecasts, 76, 92, 127
P
Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 34
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Parameters, climate, see Climate parameters
Poverty, see Developing countries;
Socioeconomic status
Precipitation, 11, 12, 22, 25, 26, 30, 36, 81, 90, 105
El Niño/Southern Oscillation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34
sector-based forecasts, 32
see also Drought;
Floods;
Monsoons
Pressure, see Atmospheric pressure
Private sector, general, 21, 134
fishery resource ownership, 45
Pro-environmental behavior, 35, 50, 87
fisheries, 45-46
forests and other ecosystems, 47-48
"green revolution", 80, 82-83, 119
information systems, 80, 82-83, 85, 86
Psychological factors, see Beliefs;
Cultural factors
Public health, see Health effects
Public information, see Information dissemination;
Information in climate forecasts
R
Rain, see Floods;
Monsoons;
Precipitation
Refugees, 8
Regional factors, x, 3, 33, 128, 133
coping strategies, 48, 49, 51, 55, 56
effects of climate variation, 96, 104, 120
value/usefulness of forecasts, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130 , 133
see also Atlantic Ocean;
Pacific Ocean;
specific continents and countries
Reinsurance, see Insurance and reinsurance
Risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88
Risk management, see Coping strategies and systems;
Insurance and reinsurance
see also Agricultural sector
S
Satellite technology, 70-71
Global Telecommunications System, 20
Seasonal factors, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15, 16, 21-22, 69-71, 117 , 136
climate indices, 35
usefulness of forecasts, 66, 125
Sea surface temperature, 21, 23, 25-27, 29, 37, 69
coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1, 23, 24-33 (passim), 37, 125
El Niño, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34
Sensitivity to climate variations, 5, 13-14, 15, 36, 40, 61-62, 71 , 89, 96, 110, 112, 119, 120, 121, 125, 126, 128, 131
coping strategies, 54, 60, 61-62, 126
defined, 14
Short-term climate prediction, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134
see also Emergency warning systems;
Nowcasting
Skill of climate forecasts, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138
defined, 26-27
failures, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135
see also Uncertainty
Social factors, xi, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11-16, 18, 35, 38, 69, 109, 113 , 127, 137-138
case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134
coping strategies, 43-45, 53, 60-61, 62, 98-99
models of, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125
public health as analog to information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87
see also Beliefs;
Coping strategies and systems;
Cultural factors;
Distribution of costs and benefits;
Economic factors;
Refugees;
Vulnerability to climate variations
Socioeconomic status, ix-x, 6, 61, 120, 126
disparities of forecast benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139
educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139
effects of climate variability, models of, 103-104, 106
information dissemination, 81, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 136
see also Developing countries
South America
see also specific countries
Spatial factors, general, 2-3, 91, 120, 122, 127
El Niño, 32-33
geographic information systems, 103
see also Regional factors
State government, 7-8, 48, 50, 62
Statistical analyses, 21, 22-28, 100, 102, 128
stochastic processes, 103, 106-107
time series, 26-28, 101, 113, 120
Stochastic processes, 103, 106-107
Surface conditions, see Boundary conditions;
Sea surface temperature
T
Temperature factors, 25, 26, 36, 90
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
North Atlantic Oscillation;
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Time factors, general, 2-3, 5, 32, 37, 120, 122, 127
effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 125
information dissemination, timing/updating of, 78, 90, 93, 127
sensitivity/vulnerability to climate change, 15
see also Nowcasting;
Interannual variability;
Seasonal factors
Time-series analysis, 26-28, 101, 113, 120
Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) Array, 23-24
Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, 21
Tropical storms, 58, 62, 86, 140
El Niño/Southern Oscillation and, 8, 32, 109
urban areas, 15
U
Uncertainty, general, 2, 4, 10, 36-37, 37-39, 65, 88, 118, 125
accuracy thresholds, 91
ethical/legal issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136
failures in forecasting, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135
fishery management, 45-46
in forecasts, 4, 75-76, 92, 118
human information processing, 75-76, 79
information dissemination, 65, 75-76, 77-78, 79, 81, 87-93 (passim), 111-112, 133, 134, 135
nowcasting, 27
organizational responses to, 77-78
trust, levels of, 81, 87, 89, 92
see also Coping strategies and systems;
Skill of climate forecasts
USAID, see Agency for International Development
V
Value of climate forecasting, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 130-133, 140
agricultural sector, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim), 81, 113-115, 117
climate parameters, general, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127
coping strategies and, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137
disparities forecast benefits, ix-x, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131
effects of forecasting vs, 95-96
institutional factors, 64, 65, 122
insurance, 65-66, 67, 110, 120
regional, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133
sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 130, 131-132, 133;
see also specific sectors
see also Uncertainty
Vulnerability to climate variations, x, 2, 5, 6, 14-15, 51, 61-62, 105-106, 121, 122, 125, 128, 139
climate indicators, general, 35
coping strategies, 60, 61-62, 126
defined, 14-15
information dissemination, 68, 83, 90, 94
see also Sensitivity to climate variations
W
Warning systems, see Emergency warning systems;
Nowcasting
Water supply, 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 26, 67-68, 108, 113-114
coping strategies, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69
see also Drought
World Wide Web, see Internet
Y
Yakima Valley, 67-68