The following HTML text is provided to enhance online
readability. Many aspects of typography translate only awkwardly to HTML.
Please use the page image
as the authoritative form to ensure accuracy.
One such analog is in the public health field, in which
information has been used in efforts to promote numerous kinds of
healthy behaviors, including cessation of cigarette smoking, change
in diet to reduce fat and add fiber, and reduction of behaviors
that increase the risk of infection by the human immunodeficiency
virus (e.g., Green, 1984; Green et al., 1986; Becker and
Rosenstock, 1989; Green and Kreuter, 1990; Aggleton et al., 1994).
Another analog exists in energy and environmental policy, in which
information has been an important element of efforts to promote
energy conservation, recycling, and other so-called
proenvironmental behaviors by individuals and households and
hundreds of empirical studies have been examined to learn their
lessons (e.g., National Research Council, 1984; Katzev and Johnson,
1987; Lutzenhiser, 1993; Gardner and Stern, 1996).
A third analog is in the area of disaster warning, in which
information is used, for example, to induce people to construct
tornado shelters, raise levees, and protect their lives and
property from oncoming storms (Mileti and Sorenson, 1987, 1990;
Mileti et al., 1992). Contemporary disaster warning systems based
on improved capabilities in prediction and forecasting have
dramatically reduced the loss of life and injuries from all hazards
in the United States, including climatic hazards. A fourth analog,
commonly called risk communication, involves the design and
distribution of messages about public health, safety, and
environmental hazards that are designed to generate levels of
concern and behavior change considered appropriate by those
designing the messages (e.g., National Research Council, 1989).
Because of certain issues raised by risk communication research, we
return to this topic only at the end of this section.
The "green revolution" in agriculture, which developed knowledge
and technology as well as spreading information, attempted to
induce farmers to adopt new seeds and cultural practices in order
to dramatically increase grain production. It shares some of the
distinctive features of climate forecasting and is particularly
interesting because it induced farmers to do things they may also
do in response to climate forecasts. The experience of the green
revolution may therefore also yield hypotheses worth systematic
examination in the context of climate forecasting. This experience
is summarized in Box 4-1.
General Principles for Designing
Each of these analogs shares most of the distinctive
characteristics of climate forecasts information listed above. In
each field, there have been numerous studies of the effectiveness
of information and of the systems for delivering it, and reliable
concepts and methods have been developed for conducting studies to
assess how scientific information is interpreted