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Executive Summary This study assesses the potential of new technology to reduce logistics support requirements for future Arrny combat systems. It describes and recommends areas of research and technology development in which the Arrny should invest now to field systems that will reduce logistics burdens and provide desired capabilities for an "Army After Next (AAN) battle force" in 2025. In requesting this study, the Arrny asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake the following tasks: Understand the importance of logistical considerations to successful battlefield operations and the likely impact of different enabling technologies on logistics support. Review concepts under consideration for soldier and battlefield systems for the AAN time frame. Analyze enabling technologies on which capabilities contemplated for the AAN will depend, and propose alternative technologies that would reduce the need for logistics support. Identify and evaluate areas of research that would reduce the logistics requirements for systems and operational concepts in the 2025 time frame of the AAN. Develop specific recommendations for the Army's science and technology (S&T) investment strategy, including research objectives and a road map for achieving them. The NRC established the Committee to Perform a Technology Assessment Focused on Logistics Support Requirements for Future Army Combat Systems to complete these tasks. LOGISTICS AND THE ARMY AFTER NEXT The activities required to transport and sustain a military force, collectively known as logistics, are central to success on the battlefield. The Arrny envisions that by 2025 it should be capable of rapidly inserting a highly effective battle force (referred to as the AAN battle force) practically anywhere on Earth to engage an enemy in any environment, including an urban center. Combat systems used by the battle force would require only a minimum of logistics support. The AAN battle force would be followed by conventional forces (requiring much more time to deploy and substantially more logistics support) only if necessary.

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REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT Combat forces have traditionally depended on a logistics "tail" of combat ~ _ support and service support units to transport supplies, maintain systems, and provide food, water, and medical support. The AAN battle force, however, will be self-sustaining for up to 14 days. It must have the unprecedented operational and tactical mobility to move up to 1,000 km from a staging area and engage an enemy force at speeds averaging 200 km/in. The committee determined that the logistics burdens of fuel and ammunition would overshadow all other logistics demands of the battle force. Burden reduction goals identified include: reducing fuel demand; increasing fuel energy density; improving energy systems and energy management; reducing the weight of vehicles and ammunition; reducing the number of rounds per target; increasing system reliability; lightening soldier systems and increasing soldier effectiveness; and optimizing system designs. ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS The broad functional categories of operational and tactical mobility and combat engagement were used throughout the study for the committee's analysis and discussion of burden-reducing technologies. Two other groupings of burden-reducing technologies technologies to reduce fuel and energy and technologies to improve the reliability of combat systems emerged from analyses of the technologies involved in the sustainment of combat systems. A fifth technology category, modeling and simulation tools to support logistics tradle-o~ analysis, emerged during the committee's investigation of mobility requirements and was considered to play an essential role in elevating logistical considerations to the same level as other performance factors in the design and acquisition of AAN combat systems. Unless major improvements are made in the Army's capability to mode! the logistics demands of systems while they are still in the concept stage and to quantify the impact of technological and design alternatives on those demands, logistics support requirements will probably not be reduced or even held to present-day levels. General themes that emerged from the assessment of each of the five functional technology categories are discussed below. Recommendations on technology development and research needed to meet the burden reduction goals follow in the section on Road Map Objectives for Research and Technology Development. Logistics Trade-off Analysis To achieve substantial reductions in logistics burdens, new AAN systems will require that systems engineering trade-off studies be per foe before design decisions are made. Given limited resources, M&S tools are the only known means of conducting the requisite analyses in time (by 2010 for AAN systems to be fielded by 20251. However. the existing M&S tools are largely inadequate for making quantitative comparisons and system performance trade-offs. Significant improvements and extensions of M&S capabilities will be necessary, particularly for modeling logistics demands under AAN battle force operating scenarios. Ideally, extensions to existing , ,

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY capabilities will become part of a distributed M&S environment that can be used for multiple purposes in support of AAN systems. Fuel and Energy Fuel is stored energy. To decrease the logistics burden of fuel, either energy can be supplied in a more compact form (less tonnage and transport volume) or the battle force's demand for energy can be reduced. The committee studied a high-risk, but potentially high-payoff, alternative to the current energy supply system based on petroleum fuels. Portable nuclear power plants at the staging area could be used to produce electricity, which could be used to electrolyze locally obtained water to produce hydrogen. Assuming safe storage and distribution mechanisms are developed, hydrogen could become the primary battlefield fuel. The assessment of this risk-laden alternative, which is unlikely to be ready for implementation before 2025, illustrates the importance of being able to evaluate the entire fuel supply and demand structure as a system to achieve logistics savings. A more certain approach to reducing the fuel burden is to reduce energy demand, principally by reducing the weight of AAN combat vehicles. For this, vehicle developers will need better information about lighter weight alternatives to conventional materials and design approaches. innovative materials and structural components must be sought to reduce overall system weight without compromising other system requirements. Fuel demand can also be reduced by better management of vehicles as energy systems and by requiring that vehicle developers meet elemental system-level fuel consumption specifications. To reduce the energy demand of combat vehicles, survivability and lethality capabilities will have to be improved. Fuel requirements of the AAN battle force will be profoundly affected by how the combat vehicle is used on the battlefield. The Army will have to decide whether equipping a vehicle both to fire kinetic-energy penetrating (KEP) projectiles and to withstand KEP hits is worth the additional weight. Once desired capabilities are determined, the duty cycles for the vehicles will have to be modeled to determine whether alternative concepts, such as a hybrid-electric engine, can reduce overall energy consumption. Operational and Tactical Mobility Operational mobility for AAN means transporting a battle force from the staging area to the area of operations, or battle space. The tiltrotor and rotary-wing transporters under development can only meet AAN objectives for operational mobility with an extremely large number of transporters and an immense fuel burden. Tactical mobility will have to depend on ground-traction vehicles (e.g., moving on wheels or tracks) unless novel concepts for off-the-ground mobility can be developed. Off-the-ground concepts could also provide a fuel-efficient option for operational mobility. The surest way to meet the combination of high cross-country mobility and reduced weight desired for tactical mobility would be a family of wheeled vehicles with advanced technology for active suspension, look-ahead terrain awareness, and subsystem automation to reduce crew size. A distributed, hierarchical M&S environment that can

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4 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMY AFTER NEXT model mobility system and technology alternatives will be essential for the Army to make rational choices about AAN mobility systems. Combat Engagement AAN battle force engagement systems will be dependent on situational awareness (SA) technologies (the same technologies used for command, control, communications, computing, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance tC4TSR]) functions) and on lethal weapon mechanisms, either projectile or directed energy systems. The effectiveness of these engagement systems will depend on near-perfect SA. Given the dynamic pace and short life cycle of SA technologies, the committee is concerned about the increasing vulnerability of Anny combat systems to "technology overmatch." Technologies that ensure that every round fired is effective against its target will have the greatest impact on the ammunition logistics burden, as well as providing formidable lethal effectiveness for an AAN battle force. Improved precision guidance and increased lethality are thus key performance objectives for projectile weapon systems. Directed energy weapons may have antisensor and anti-SA applications in the AAN timeframe, but they should complement rather than replace projectile weapons and their associated ammunition burdens. Reliability Concepts Improved system reliability will have a multiplier effect on reducing logistics burdens. For reliability (and related concepts, such as availability or maintainability) to be engineered into AAN system designs and retained during system optimization, objective, quantifiable measures for these system-level characteristics must be derived from operational requirements. The term "ultrarelliability" is misleading unless it can be defined in the context of likely AAN operations (for example, duty cycles for typical missions). Performance measures that incorporate reliability requirements can be defined for each functional or structural level of the design hierarchy, from mission reliability to system and subsystem reliability, all the way down to the properties of the materials selected or designed for components. A distributed M&S environment can be used to design reliability into AAN systems, if validated data on desired and achievable reliability-related characteristics can flow up and down a functional and structural hierarchy of M&S tools. Because system failures cannot usually be attributed to a single cause, reliability models will be necessary at all levels of the hierarchy. SOLDIER SUSTAINMENT Increasing the combat effectiveness of soldiers by meeting soldier-level logistics requirements will be as important as reducing logistics support requirements for vehicles and weapons systems. The soldier's logistics support requirements cannot be addressed by focusing on the total weight (tonnage) and transport volume of provisions and supplies. Increases in the range, speed, and variety of AAN operations will require that physical Toads borne by soldiers be reduced dramatically. Soldiers will require compact

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY s power supplies; lightweight and nonrestrictive protection from ballistic, chemical, and biological threats; and improved physical and mental fitness through preventive medicine and nutrition. JOINT FORCE REQUIREMENTS The committee identified areas of research and technology development important for reducing AAN logistics demand that should be joint programs with the other military services or conducted through agencies of the U.S. Depa~ent of Defense (DoD). The Army will depend on the Air Force and Navy to ferry the battle force and sustaining supplies to the staging area, to provide coordinated fire support, and to assist with C4TSR. Therefore, the Army should participate in planning for this support to ensure that AAN operational and logistical needs are met. Technology developments necessary to enable strategic lift of the battle force will overlap with the technology requirements for operational, and possibly tactical, mobility. The Army should identify the overlapping requirements and encourage DoD to establish responsibilities as soon as possible among the services for satisfying these requirements. CHANGING PATTERNS IN TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION The rapid growth and global competition in commercial markets for complex technological products, coupled with decreases in defense spending, are challenging the role DoD has played since World War IT in determining the direction of product development, although DoD is still the principal sponsor of high-risk, innovative research at universities and federal laboratories. In their roles as consumers of technology, DoD and the Army must take full advantage of cooperative endeavors involving industry, academia, and the other services. The committee's recommendations for research and technology investment adhere to the principle that Army dollars should be invested primarily in projects that address Army-specific requirements or projects that would not be undertaken without Army support. The committee also reviewed and commented on several aspects of the current Strategic Research Objectives included in the Army S&T program. ROAD MAP OBJECTIVES FOR RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Table ES-1 summarizes the committee's findings on the research and technology areas to reduce AAN logistics burdens. Road map objectives in the middle column provide feasible routes to meeting the logistics burden reduction goals, listed in the second column. The two right-hand columns list the specific areas of technology development and research (basic or applied) that will be essential to achieving each road map objective. Distributed M&S environments are an essential technology for several of the road map objectives. M&S tools are needed to support systems design and trade-off analyses to weigh logistics demands equally with other performance objectives.

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8 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMY AFTER NEXT Although the Army and DoD have already invested a good deal in M&S tools, these tools will have to be significantly extended and enhanced to support logistics trade-off analyses. There are three reasons for this. First, existing tools do not enable realistic, quantitative modeling of the logistics demands associated with the operating conditions being modeled. Second, even in an application area such as ground mobility, where many tools already exist, results from one level of modeling cannot be used as input to models at another structural level. These functional and structural levels ought to form a simulation hierarchy extending from high-level simulations of force-on-force engagements down to engineering models of individual systems, subsystems, and components. The capability to link input data and results among tools at different levels in this hierarchy is essential for the iterated testing and assessment of logistics demands in relation to other performance characteristics, before major system decisions are made. Third, even in functional areas where the Army and other agencies have a range of active research and development programs such as projectile weapon technologies these programs are not producing the data on logistics demand necessary to analyze performance trade-offs. Reducing the Fuel Burden Substituting lightweight materials with equivalent or superior functionality in designs for air and ground vehicles is the most promising approach for reducing total system weight. The committee identified vehicle system weight as the most important factor in reducing AAN fuel demand. Careful systems-level evaluations will be necessary to make these substitutions, but designers are often constrained by a lack of information on nontraditional alternative materials. Adequate information resources to support materials selection must accompany the development of M&S technology. The two areas of research that would be most valuable for meeting this objective are (~) research on multifunctional materials that provide superior performance for protection and structural functions while reducing system weight, and (2) the use of M&S research tools to design new microstructured versions of materials and the processing techniques to manufacture them efficiently. The committee concluded that the Army lacks an affordable concept for transporting the battle force to the battle area from a staging area. The road map objective of airborne systems with lighter airframes and light, fuel-efficient engines is intended to meet this operational mobility requirement with minimal logistics support requirements. The committee also found no technology development candidates, consistent with fuel demand reduction goals for an airborne platform that could serve as the principal vehicle to enable tactical mobility for the battle force. To realize the AAN vision of a battle force maneuvering in a three-dimensional battle space at speeds several times faster than the speed of current ground forces but with reduced fuel demand, the Briny must look for novel mobility concepts, such as surface ground-effects vehicles. if the necessary basic and applied research does produce promising candidates, a distributed M&S environment that can model logistics demands for air and ground mobility systems will be essential for designing and developing battle-competent systems within the AAN time frame. Minimally crewed vehicles could decrease vehicle weight, although the trade- offs among fuel demand and other performance objectives will require the kind of

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 quantitative analysis that only a distributed M&S environment could~ provide. In the long term, unmanned ground vehicles might be effective as components of a squad that includes human commanders in some squad vehicles. Research in robotics, artificial intelligence and related areas (primarily control theory) would sunnort this mad man objective. --r r -- - ~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ---fir The mobility systems evaluation objective in Table ES-l refers to the need for total systems evaluations of the many technology options for AAN ground vehicles. Technologies such as hybrid drive, intelligent engines, active suspension, terrain sensors, and energy storage and recovery shoulder be incorporated into system designs and evaluated for their impact on fuel consumption and other logistics burdens in scenarios typical of AAN missions. A straightforward way to force the innovative use of technologies to reduce fuel consumption is to include specific constraints on fuel consumption as a functional specification for a system, thereby requiring interested developers to engineer a competitive integration of technologies. New energy delivery systems could increase the amount of fuel energy delivered per unit of transported weight and volume. A fuel supply mode! that can be realistically coupled with models of fuel demand for AAN system concepts being evaluated in war games is needed as soon as possible. This modeling capability should be adaptable for use in trade-off analyses for improving fuel systems, mission planning, and training exercises that include realistic logistics constraints. it will also be essential for evaluating radical innovations, such as the high-risk, high-payoff possibility of coupling a modular nuclear reactor located at the AAN staging area with conversion to hydrogen as the primary battlefield fuel. Some of the technologies being developed for improving lethal systems performance could reduce ammunition weight while increasing fuel demand, either by replacing propellant with fuel as an energy source or by moving a heavier system around the tactical battle space. The committee found no evidence that these implicit trade-offs have been acknowledged, much less analyzed systematically. The associated burden reduction goal of "reducing lethal system weight" is a reminder that weight is ~ common ~. , O ~O ~1 ~' ~ _ ~. . ~ a factor In reducing tuel demands tor all AAN combat systems and subsystems. Reducing the Ammunition Burden The committee found that situational awareness technologies and underlying research on alternative lethal systems and precision-guided munitions have the most potential to reduce the ammunition logistics burden. Many of the electronics, electro- optical, and data processing technologies used in SA applications are also relevant to compact, affordable, integrated guidance systems for missiles and munitions. Continued research in command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4TSR) supportability and robustness is imperative because any loss or degradation in the near-perfect SA that the Army will require for successful battle force engagements could have cascading consequences. Reducing the rounds required per target depends on improving the precision of projectile propulsion systems. The committee found little data from the ongoing development programs that would be useful for making quantitative comparisons among alternative systems on this aspect of performance. Energetics, materials with high energy density, and improved warhead materials for projectiles can reduce the weight per round for a projectile weapon system, as can less sensitive munitions. The committee found

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10 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT that the best opportunities for reducing weight per round are in improving the performance of an energetic as a propellant or explosive while decreasing its sensitivity to heat or shock during transport, storage, and handling. Reducing Other Burdens Systems design for reliability depends on incorporating reliability-related metrics into the distributed M&S environments used to analyze the logistics demands of candi- date designs and to make trade-offs with other performance objectives. At the lower lev- els of the structural hierarchy, the materials and substructure properties that contribute to overall system reliability should be identified, and materials selection should be based on those properties, in addition to other performance-related properties. The committee also foresees a long-term research requirement for modeling innovative material structures and the processes for producing and fabricating them efficiently, so that future Army combat systems can meet operational reliability requirements, use lighter materials to reduce total system weight, and still achieve superior combat effectiveness. In keeping with its Statement of Task, the committee focused on technologies to reduce logistics demands of combat systems and did not study technologies to improve logistics systems; however, the table includes an entry for technologies and research to support logistics SA to emphasize the ubiquitous role of SA technologies in the AAN time frame. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS In addition to detailed findings and recommendations on research and technology development in which the Army should invest, the committee formulated general conclusions about reducing logistics support requirements for Army After Next systems. Each conclusion is followed by one or more recommendations. Conclusion 1. The Army can reduce logistics demand for Army After Next combat systems. Fuel and ammunition will continue to be the dominant logistics burdens of an AAN battle force. Investments in research and technology development can achieve specific burden reduction goals. Reducing or eliminating the demand for fuel, ammunition, and spare parts will have a ripple effect by reducing the need for separate logistics units and personnel to support the battle force. The primary ways to reduce logistics demand for fuel and ammunition include research and technology developments in modeling and simulation, lightweight vehicles and systems, and improved precision guidance systems. The demand for spare parts and maintenance support can be reduced by including reliability as a performance requirement at all levels of system design. Recommendation I. The Army should invest in the research and technology development areas listed in the last two columns of Table ES-1 to reduce logistics demand for Army After Next systems.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 Conclusion 2. Technologies for improving situational awareness (SA) are critical to reducing logistics demands for AAN systems. SA is essential for fuel-efficient, high- speed mobility and for engaging targets efficiently and effectively, thereby reducing battlefield requirements for both fuel and ammunition. AAN systems will be even more dependent on SA technologies than those developed for Army XXI. Recommendation 2. The Army should assume that currently contemplated standards of command, control, communications, computing, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) will not be adequate to support the near-perfect situational awareness requirements of an Army After Next battle force. The Army should ensure adequate funding for research and development of secure, robust, and supportable C4ISR systems and should adapt new information technologies to meet Army After Next requirements as they are identified. Conclusion 3. The development of joint-service capabilities wit! affect the Army's ability to reduce AAN logistics burdens. Because future operational concepts for the Arrny and the other services will be derived from the DoD Joint Vision 2010, the AAN should be planned to take full advantage of research and technology developments sponsored by DoD and the other services. Promising commercial programs are under way in both heavy-lift aircraft and high-speed ships that might provide the AAN with unprecedented strategic mobility from the continental United States to forward staging areas and, by 2025, perhaps even into the battle area. If the Air Force and Navy adopt new aircraft and ships, strategic lift capabilities provided to the AAN battle force and follow-on forces would be significantly improved. Prospective enhancements in C4ISR and weapons systems developed by the other services can be integrated into AAN planning, thereby reducing the need for deploying parallel capabilities. Technologies developed to support SA and force projection for the other services might also be used for AAN systems. Recommendation 3a. The Army should work to influence commercial developments in strategic mobility to ensure that new capabilities include military add-one to the commercial designs. The Army should participate in design reviews with commercial developers to ensure that battle force requirements are met. (A similar approach was recommended in STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century.) Recommendation 3b. The Army should integrate the situational awareness and fire support capabilities of the other services into the Army After Next concept. Conclusion 4. Revolutionary changes in battlefield mobility for an AAN battle force are unlikely to be attained before 2025. The committee found no combination of technologies that would be capable of simultaneously meeting hypothesized requirements for speed, weight, fuel consumption, survivability, and lethality for AAN fighting vehicles.

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12 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT Current concepts for meeting AAN operational and tactical mobility goals do not provide for the desired increases in mobility or reductions in fuel consumption. The committee estimates that a future 15-ton wheeled combat vehicle able to attain cross country speeds of up to 130 km/in over moderate terrain is technically feasible. Air carriers capable of meeting operational lift requirements for a force of 15-ton vehicles are also technically feasible, but these carriers may not be affordable and would add significantly to the overall fuel burden. Recommendation 4a. If the Army After Next battle force requires a capability for cross- country mobility at speeds of more than 130 km/in, the Army will have to develop novel mobility alternatives. Research in novel technology areas, such as surface ground effects, will only be undertaken at the Army's insistence and should begin immediately. Recommendation 4b. If 130-km/h cross-country mobility is adequate for Army After Next operations, the Army should develop requirements for a family of minimally crewed wheeled vehicles to perform battlefield functions. Recommendation 4c. The Army should define its long-term requirements for operational and tactical mobility and work with the U.S. Department of Defense to clarify joint-service responsibilities. Research and technology development should be pursued on a department-wide basis to fulfill overlapping objectives of the Army and other services for the AAN time frame. Conclusion 5. Reliability considerations (including reliability, availability, maintain- ability, and durability) have been routinely sacrificed for other performance characteris- tics. To reduce logistics demand for AAN systems, reliability must be treated on an equal basis with lethality, survivability, and mobility in the design process. Recommendation 5. The Arrny should revise its design and source selection criteria for battle force systems so that reliability is considered on an equal basis with other mission- specific goals. Conclusion 6. Logistics support for soldiers requires special attention because the individual soldier will be the most essential combat system in the Army After Next. Advances that extend human physical capacity and reduce the need for medical support could lead to quantum improvements in soldier combat performance. Reducing the soldier's logistics support requirements would have a multiplier effect by increasing combat effectiveness and reducing logistics demand for medical support, water, food, and life support. Recommendation 6. The Army should focus on the "soldier as a system" by ensuring adequate funding for research and technology developments to reduce the weight and bulk of the soldier's combat Toad and to extend the soldier's physiological and psychological capacities.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 13 Conclusion 7. Technology solutions to reduce the logistics demands of Army After Next systems will not be simple. The committee does not foresee breakthroughs in technology that will alter fundamental logistical considerations by 2025 for an AAN battle force. Therefore, the Army should apply technology directly toward achieving specific burden reduction goals rather than anticipating that a magic substitute for fuel or ammunition will be found. The AAN shift away from heavy direct-engagement systems toward smaller, more versatile platforms capable of operating in diverse environments, including urban centers, will reduce the Army's traditional dependence on a "supply line" to meet fuel and ammunition requirements and will reduce the numbers of both combat and logistics personnel in the battle area. The dramatic improvements in mobility, survivability, lethality, and reliability necessary to ensure the success of a battle force will require that the Army focus now on ways of reducing the logistics support requirements of future combat systems. Analyzing logistics trade-offs during the planning and implementation of systems will be critical. Of all advanced technologies considered in STAR 21: Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century, computer simulation and visualization technology was recognized as the most relevant to the development of new Army systems. With improved modeling and simulation tools, the Army can identify, analyze, and evaluate alternatives and determine optimum system characteristics for reducing logistics demands at minimum expense. State-of-the-art modeling and simulation tools could also be used to test operational tactics and procedures, train soldiers, and verify doctrinal precepts. Recommendation 7a. The Army should develop the necessary modeling and simulation tools for conducting logistics trade-off analyses at all levels of design, from small-scare components to fully integrated systems. Recommendation 7b. To facilitate model development, logistical data from past military operations must be compiled and maintained in useful formats. Recommendation 7c. Logistics trade-off analyses should be included in the Army's system acquisition and integrated logistics support processes.

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