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10 Investment Strategy for Research and Technology Development This chapter provides a road map for achieving future combat systems with reduced logistics support requirements. It describes the central role played by defense research and development programs in advancing U.S. technology and summarizes the target areas for research and technology development discussed in Chapters 3 through 9. Each of the target areas is related to reduction goals for specific logistics burdens and to associated road map objectives for AAN research and technology development. Overall, the chapter outlines an investment strategy for achieving AAN capabilities and significantly reducing logistics demand. ROLE OF DEFENSE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT The political and economic context of DoD's basic research has changed dramatically. Industrial competition has become global, and the commercial market has become much larger than the military market. These changes have had several implications for defense-related research and development. First, the commercial sector is driving many, if not most, of the near-term advances in components and systems. Second, DoD must incorporate commercial products into defense systems, adding ruggedness and military specialization as an overlay, rather than developing military- specific components. Third, international competition and the desire for near-term profits have reduced longer-term investments by industry in many areas of basic and applied research. Figure 10-1 shows how these changes have affected one specific area, semiconductor integrated circuits (IC), which are a critical aspect of the information dominance and near-perfect SA on which the AAN is predicated. Similar examples could be cited in other technology areas, such as wireless communications and turbine engines. In 1976, U.S. military purchases accounted for 17 percent of IC sales worldwide ($700 million out of total sales of $4.2 billions a significant market share that gave DoD leverage in defining product specifications and directions. In the next 20 years, the U.S. military market increased only marginally, to $1.l billion, while the commercial market exploded to $160 billion (ICEC, 1998~. The military market now accounts for less than 1 percent of sales, and the commercial market has become the dominant force in setting {C product directions. Although lower prices have resulted, the DoD is now compelled to use commercial IC products and adapt them to meet military requirements, as necessary. 137

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138 100 _` o ._ Q 10 , In ID - 1 0.1 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMY AFTER NEXT I ~ Commercial HI DoD ~ DoD% \ _ 1 1 976 1986 Year 1 996 20 ~3 co co i_ 10 o o O FIGURE 10-1 DoD's decreasing share of the market for integrated circuits. From 1976 to 1996, the percentage of sales to DoD decreased from 17 percent to less than 1 percent of the market. (ICEC, 1998~. At the same time, competitive pressures have shortened industry's development horizons to one or two product cycles. As former director of defense research and engineering, Dr. Anita K. [ones, has observed, ". . . industry research and development horizons are increasingly near term." The horizon for the information technology industry sector, for example, is typically three years or less (Signal, 1997~. In a cycle that begins with S&T (science and technology) and runs through development and production to life-cycle support, DoD has little to gain by adding a few additional dollars to industry's profit-driven, near-te~ development. Except for requirements that are truly unique to defense applications, DoD can exert much more influence by leveraging its dollars either at the front end in the enabling S&T phase or at the back end by adapting commercial technology to meet DoD needs. Nevertheless, commercial industry remains dependent on the federal government for investments in long-term, higher risk S&T research. Historically, DoD has provided 15 to 20 percent of the total federal investment. In fiscal year 1997, expenditures by all of the services accounted for almost $8 billion in basic and applied research and advanced technology development (Touhy, 1998~. This amount represents 40 percent of federal spending for basic research and includes more than 70 percent of all federal investment in microelectronics and electrical engineering (Signal, ~ 997~. U.S. industry has become increasingly dependent on the crucial leverage of- government-funded research conducted at universities and in federal laboratories.

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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR RESEARCHA ND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 139 Although DoD's research investment has declined in constant dollars, the percentage of the DoD budget has remained stable since World War IT because the relationship with industry has served the needs of the DoD, the research community, and the commercial sector. The imperatives of national defense have enabled DoD to invest directly in important new ideas with adequate resources to make a difference. Although this focused approach has not led to success in every project, it has led to enough successes to foster enormous progress in new technologies for both the military and commercial sectors. Early-stage development of new technologies is almost always applicable to both sectors. Therefore, by investing wisely, DoD can influence the directions of research and guarantee an adequate research base for technologies to meet its future needs. DoD can also leverage its investments by coordinating teams drawn from federal laboratories, industry, and universities for demonstration projects to develop new defense applications based as much as possible on commercially available components and software. The S&T advantage of U.S. forces will increasingly depend on adaptations of commercial products with a defense overlay, rather than on expensive military- specific designs. ARMY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM Army and DoD S&T programs include basic research (budget line item 6.1), which increases scientific understanding, applied research (budget line item 6.2), which identifies and exploits technology opportunities based on new knowledge and evaluates their technical feasibility to increase war-fighting capabilities, and advanced technology development (budget line item 6.3), which demonstrates applications to specific military systems, to speed the transition to maturity and insertion. The Army share of DoD funding for research in all three categories is shown in Figure 10-2. Like overall DoD investments, funding for research has remained a constant 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 - o ._ = ._ ax 0.80 ._ LL 0.60 0.40 0.20 1~:: ~ ~ 6.3 err 5~ 0.00 997 1 998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fiscal Year FIGURE 10-2 Army funding for research. Source: DA, 1998.

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140 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT proportion of Anny appropriations, although investment in constant real dollars has declined steadily since the end of the Cold War along with the rest of the defense budget. The research and technology development needed for the AAN will require a cooperative effort. As the Arrny has fewer and fewer dollars to invest, it will become increasingly important for the Army to leverage the research activities of industry, government, and the other services. Army dollars should be invested principally in projects that will meet Army-specific requirements or that will be undertaken only if they are funded by the Anny. Strategic Research Objectives and S&T Objectives The Anny and DoD use the term "Strategic Research Objective" (SRO) to refer to an area of scientific research selected for emphasis because of its potential relevance to military operations, particularly for Tong-range, high payoff applications. The initial DoD SROs originated as Army SROs and are described in Box 10-1. The relatively small number of Army (and DoD) SROs should not be confused with the roughly 200 Army Science and Technology Objectives (STOs). An STO states a specific, measurable technology advance funded by applied research or exploratory development dollars (budget line items 6.2 or 6.3) and is to be achieved by a specific fiscal year. By contrast, Anny SROs focus and guide the S&T community on predominantly basic research (budget line item 6.1) that can be linked, although more tentatively than an STO, to Army requirements for technology development (DA, 1 997c). Strategic Research Objectives and AAN Situational Awareness Based on the critical role of the technologies for enabling the near-perfect SA required to achieve "one-round, one-target" lethality for the ANN, as well as other operational efficiencies, including terrain awareness, operational energy management, and just-right logistics support, the committee believes that the current SROs in nanoscience, mobile wireless communications, intelligent systems, and compact power have the potential to support logistics burden reduction. The research areas that should be given the most emphasis are discussed below. Nanoscience Appendix F describes how the historical trend of increasing computational power at decreasing cost (according to Moore's Law) has been based entirely on the integration of increasingly large numbers of metal-oxide-on-silicon semiconductor devices on a given area of silicon substrate. For this trend to continue beyond the presently perceived physical limits on decreasing the size of silicon-based transistors (e.g., approximately 50-nm gate widths for CMOS Complementary-metal oxide on silicon! devices1. new device concepts and computing architectures will have to be ,, ~Ha, . . . .. . Ad, , . . . , . . . . - , . -. . invented. L)ecreas~ng the size ot transistor devices below these physical limits Is likely to involve quantum devices with scales on the order of electronic wave functions (1 to 10 rim) or devices based on Coulomb blockade effects.

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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR RESEARCHA ND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 141 Box 10-1 Army Strategic Research Objectives Biomimetics. novel synthetic materials, processes, and sensors through advanced understanding and exploitation of the design principles found In nature Nanoscience. innovative enhancements in the properties and performance of structures, materials, and devices that have controllable features on the nanoscale (tens of angstroms) Smart Structures. advanced capabilities in modeling, predicting, controlling, and optimizing the dynamic responses of complex, multi-element, deformable struc- tures used In vehicles and systems Mobile Wireless Communications. rapid, secure transmissions of large quantities of multimedia communications Intelligent Systems. systems that can sense, analyze, ream, adapt, and function In changing hostile environments Compact Power Sources. improved batteries and fuel cells, as well as the identi- fication of new concepts relating to energy density, operating characteristics, reliability, and safety of portable power (DA, 1997c) So far, no device has emerged as a clear competitor to conventional silicon technology, although alternatives do exist (e.g., gallium-nitride for wide-bandgap semi- conductor applications). Also, decreasing the size of interconnections between the devices, referred to as packaging, will become as significant a challenge to engineers as decreasing the size of the individual devices. Even if nanoscience does not lead the way to new paradigms for the fundamental elements of computing circuitry, it will have an impact on a wide range of sensor technologies. Especially important areas for research include (~) detectors for chemical and biological agents and (2) materials for focal plane arrays to detect and image electromagnetic radiation, particularly in the infrared region. Mobile Wireless Communications AAN SA will rely heavily on communications, and the Army urgently needs a total systems simulation of these communications needs, along the lines of a distributed M&S environment that can realistically simulate functionality under combat conditions. The engagement and system level simulations need to be linked to the protocols for available and projected hardware and software subsystems, so that modeling results can flow up and down the structural hierarchy. These simulations should be updated as experience is gained from Army XXI and as planning for the AAN continues. An important SA issue that the Army must address for both Army XXI and the AAN is the communications burden of new sensor systems. Proliferation of sensor systems with high data-link requirements on platforms, such as UAVs or UGVs, located

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142 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT remotely from the point where the sensor information is used, will compete for available communications bandwidth with other essential communication functions, such as command and control. Sensor fusion and advanced signal processing on the remote platform will add complexity and cost to the individual sensor applications but may be essential for capacity and robustness of the overall C4ISR system. Intelligent Systems and Compact Power The intelligent systems SRO is directly applicable to autonomous vehicles as AAN sensor platforms and to automated subsystems to reduce AAN crew size and manage energy demands. AAN soldiers can be expected to play critical roles as sources, processors, and recipients of sensor data under battlefield conditions even more fluid than those anticipated for Army XXI. Compact power sources could reduce the logistics burden for the AAN battle force and increase the effectiveness of soldier systems. Combined with energy-eff~cient technologies in future soldier systems, research under the compact power SRO should lead to the development of compact power technologies that would simplify soldier-level logistics requirements (NRC, 1997a). Strategic Research Objectives and Lightweight Materials Two of the SROs, biomimetics and smart structures, could lead to the development of new and novel lightweight materials, but the time frame for incorporating the resulting innovations into fielded systems extends beyond the rapidly approaching date required for initial operational capability of AAN systems. If research is directed toward reducing weight and increasing reliability, the results could significantly reduce overall logistics burden. Some of the applicable materials research will be undertaken by the civilian sector in pursuit of commercial aims, but the impetus and direction for the development of military materials, especially new armor building blocks and architectures for incorporation into protective systems, must come from the Army, perhaps with joint-service participation. Strategic Research Objectives for Logistics The Army sponsor of this study asked the committee to identify candidate re- search topics for a new SRO that would focus on reducing logistics demand for the AAN. Representatives of the Army logistics community further suggested to the com- mittee that an SRO dedicated to logistics technologies and incorporating research into areas such as "ultrareliable" systems, prognostics, or fuel efficiency might be an appro- priate focus for basic research. However, the committee was asked to address technologies to reduce the logistics demands of AAN systems, not technologies to improve logistics operations. Fuel economy and system reliability are important objectives for reducing logistics burdens, but the committee's analysis shows that they should be considered broad performance objectives of an entire system, and should be designed into AAN systems at every level of subsystem and component analysis (see Chapters 4 and 7), rather than as guides for research or S&T development. Prognostics could improve

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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR RESEARCHA ND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 143 system maintainability, but the committee considers prognostics to be one of several components of the broader area of materials research and structural design that could improve the maintainability and reliability of AAN systems (Chapter 7~. During the course of the study, the Army proposed establishing a new SRO focused on designing new alienor materials. The committee believes that advanced materials with lightweight, protective, high-performance characteristics will have to be available well before 2025 to be incorporated into AAN systems. Successful candidates within that time frame are, therefore, more likely to result from applied research and advanced development of known technologies, rather than from basic research. Whether or not the Army proceeds with an SRO in this area, which would be valuable in the long term, the Arrny should focus on applied research and technology development that facilitates the integration of new materials into future system designs because of the importance of reducing weight to logistics savings. INVESTMENTS TO REDUCE LOGISTICS SUPPORT REQUIREMENTS FOR AAN SYSTEMS The preceding section described the research emphases of the Army's existing S&T program. This section describes areas of research and technology development that the committee recommends for investment because of their importance for reducing logistics support requirements for AAN systems. Road Map Objectives The committee derived road map objectives based on the burden reduction goals discussed in Chapter 2 from the technology assessments presented in Chapters 3 through 9. Whereas burden reduction goals are broad and can be pursued in various ways, the road map objectives require moving in the direction of reducing logistics demand. Through the technology assessments, the committee identified several areas of research or technology development as key enablers for achieving the road map objectives. Table 10-1 lists the burden reduction goals, the road map objectives for each goal, and the recommended areas for research and technology development. For many of the reduction goals, the committee identified several road map objectives. The last two columns in Table 10-! list the areas of technology development and research with the most potential for meeting the road map objectives listed in the middle column. The committee focused most of its efforts on ways to reduce the principal weight-and-volume logistics burdens of fuel and ammunition; however, it also considered maintenance, repair, and refitting (particularly reducing the personnel and infrastructure needed to provide support capabilities), and spare parts. As shown in Table 10-l, the associated reduction goals for fuel are reduced fuel demand, improved system energy management, increased fuel energy density by weight, and reduced weight of lethal systems. The reduction goals for the ammunition burden are fewer rounds of ammunition per target and reduced ammunition weight. Improved reliability of systems was identified as the key goal for reducing maintenance and spare parts burdens. Logistics support for individual soldiers is a critical burden for any army, past, present, or future. The significance of this burden cannot be measured in terms of total weight or transport volume. The committee identified two goals for reduction of soldier

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146 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT logistics: lightweight, compact systems for individual soldiers and increased soldier effectiveness. The Army has begun a major effort to improve logistics delivery systems in response to Joint Vision 2010 (see Chapter 2), and the Statement of Task for this study required that the committee focus on technologies that would reduce logistics support requirements of ANN combat systems (see Appendix A). Because of this, the committee did not assess technological opportunities to improve the logistics supply and distribution process itself. Nevertheless, technologies to improve logistics operations are very important. The reduction goal of "just-right" logistics is included in Table 10-1 to underscore the importance of SA technologies to logistics operations, as well as to combat operations. Finally, a major theme of this report is the importance of system analysis of the kind associated with systems engineering. System analysis should begin early in the design process and continue through the stages of prototyping, testing, engineering development, and manufacturing. This capability is critical for weighing all of the requirements for reducing logistics burdens against one another, as well as for weighing the larder coal of logistics burden reduction against other AAN performance goals and . . . . . requirements. Specialized forms of system analysis are also necessary for achieving many of the other road map objectives. Beginning in Chapter 3 and in various contexts throughout the other technical assessment chapters, M&S technology is discussed as supporting general and particular requirements for systems analyses and trade-off studies. Because M&S is relevant, and even essential, to so many of the road map objectives, it is treated first in the following summaries of the recommended research and technology areas. For many important road map objectives, the key S&T needs identified by the committee are primarily technology developments or applied research for specific technology applications, rather than basic research. The committee identified a number of areas where basic research is essential to fill gaps in what is known (e.g., advances in hydrogen storage that might allow much higher energy per mass of storage system or innovative concepts for operational or tactical air mobility). However, some of these basic research areas are fairly narrow and limited (e.g., hydrogen storage). Others are better suited to strong Army participation in joint research (e.g., operational mobility) or to leveraging limited Army resources through partnering, rather than becoming a major focus of Army research. Distributed M&S Technology The committee found that distributed M&S technology, in various forms, can contribute to nearly all of the road map objectives listed in Table 10-1. This finding was not a presumption when the study began; it emerged gradually, in one functional area after another, from the inflation gathered and assessed by committee members. Although calls for increasing support for M&S have become commonplace in studies for the Army and other defense agencies, this report focuses on improving and extending existing M&S tools to provide a useful and reliable environment for making system trade-offs that incorporate burden reductions with the Derformance coals of other primary systems. . ~ Trade-off analyses must be done at several stages prior to making the decision to field a system, especially in the early stages of requirements definition and design, as

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INVESTMENTSTRATEGYFOR RESEARCHA ND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 147 well as in the prototyping and other phases of design implementation. The committee recognizes that not enough is known about logistics support requirements, which are characteristics of entire systems, to predict them accurately from basic design elements (i.e., from first principles). Nevertheless, experience has shown that when logistical considerations are not addressed until the engineering and manufacturing development phases, design alternatives that could have significantly reduced logistics while maintaining adequate levels of other essential characteristics have already been eliminated from consideration. Given the time frame and resource constraints of fielding AAN systems, M&S appears to be the best way for the Army to perform the requisite systems analyses. However, the tools must be adequate to the task. Only a few of the existing tools can provide realistic, quantitative modeling of the logistics associated with the operating conditions being modeled for a system or subsystem. Unless M&S tools have the capability to relate logistics impacts to other performance characteristics, they will be unusable for most of the purposes advocated in this report. For this reason, the committee believes that developing adequate analysis tools is a matter of the highest urgency and priority for achieving AAN capability by 2025. The committee does not advocate that the Arrny develop one large M&S system, or even a tightly integrated "system of systems." In any given area, M&S tools must be able to pass data back and forth, creating a "distributed M&S environment." In some instances, closer coupling of several models, using one simulation or modeling "run" on coupled models, may be advantageous or even essential. But for most M&S applications discussed in this report, tight integration of modeling tools is not necessary, or even desirable. Furthermore, M&S environments (sets of M&S tools) will vary, depending on the application area in which logistics burdens must be analyzed to optimize burden reduction and other performance goals. For example, Chapter 4 argues for an environment in which energy supply and distribution logistics can be effectively simulated, along with details of the AAN operational concepts that determine the "when, where, and how much" of energy demands. Chapter 4 also calls for an energy system management approach, incorporating M&S, for assessing technology options for reducing vehicle fuel demand. These two applications for M&S probably constitute two different "distributed M&S environments," with some capability for exchanging results and assumptions. The environment for modeling vehicle fuel demand is, however, the same as the distributed environment for vehicle design described in Chapter 5. Another application area in which one or more M&S environment will be needed is in the analysis of alternative lethal systems discussed in Chapter 6. The M&S tools in this area must not only give realistic results about the logistics burdens associated with various options, but must also correlate the energy demand for these options with the overall energy supply and distribution M&S environment. Assumptions and results from lethal systems M&S can then be translated into operation-wide energy demands, and vice versa. Despite the necessity for data to be moved back and forth, the two environments are distinct with respect to the kinds of tools they must have to resolve logistics trade-offs. Assumptions and results of the lethal systems M&S environments and the vehicle system M&S environment must also be transferable because the lethal systems will ultimately be subsystems of a vehicular platform.

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148 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMY AFTER NEXT Lightweight Materials for Air and Ground Vehicles Technology Development Areas The most important factor in reducing the demand for fuel on the battlefield is reducing the weight of battlefield vehicles. However, deciding how to reduce vehicle weight and still meet other performance requirements will require systems analysis using a distributed M&S environment for vehicle design (described in Chapters 3 and 5~. Substituting lighter weight materials for more conventional materials should be one of the objectives of vehicle design, as should increased reliability, defined in terms of ANN battle force mission requirements (see Chapter A. A frequent obstacle to the evaluation of lightweight substitute materials is the lack of information or the difficulty of accessing information about them. The Army should promote and support the development of information resources to help system designers obtain data on alternative materials. The substitution of lightweight materials that also offer improved reliability or other performance advantages over more conventional choices is an area of broad applicability for reducing logistics burdens. Designing systems with lightweight, multifunctional materials and knowing how to manufacture them with high reliability and cost effectiveness are essential for developing combat systems with lower fuel burdens, as well as the other system performance characteristics required for AAN operations. Research Areas lightweight materials in vehicle systems. One is advanced armor and protection concepts; the other is the use of M&S tools to design microstructural versions of materials and the processing techniques to manufacture them efficiently. The diversity of projectile threats and of possible combinations of technological approaches to protecting a ground or air vehicle will require designers of AAN vehicles to think in terms of a vehicle protection as a subsystem of the vehicle (see Chapter 4 and Appendix D). For instance, the protection system of an AAN vehicle might combine components of stealth and active protection with a lighter weight reactive armor. The Army should explore options for an optimal protection subsystem considering the mission requirements of the vehicle and taking into account the full range of projectile threats. The weight of the protection subsystem components and the implications for fuel demand must be design criteria. New armor building blocks and new architectures for armor should be investigated in the context of this broad perspective. Some elements of biomimetics are relevant to this broad perspective, but other approaches to materials research, such as the development of lightweight alloys and functional-gradient intermetallics, ceramics for both organic-matrix and metal-matrix composites, and microstructured ceramics, should also be included. In the future, materials for components and substructures should be chosen to meet the full complement of performance objectives, such as structural and low-observable values, reduction in fuel demand through lighter system weight, and greater mission reliability, as well as the more traditional projectile defeat (armor) values. The committee selected two research areas related to substituting

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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR RESEARCHAND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 149 The Army is currently considering a new SRO focused on advanced armor and protection concepts that reduce or eliminate dependence on heavy materials and vehicle structures. The SRO should include materials research to increase the overall mission reliability of AWN systems as well as reducing weight. A substitute material that can reduce the weight of a vehicle system must also meet all of the performance requirements of the particular application and must add less mass to the total system than conventional options. if known materials lack one or more of the required characteristics, computational approaches and modeling tools can be used by materials scientists to study, and even design, new materials with microstructures that can be controlled during processing. Electronic substrates, for example, depend on M&S tools for design and assessment of candidate microstructures and processing methods so that they can be efficiently produced in large quantities. The current SRO in biomimetics addresses some aspects of this research. It includes research, for example, in which a biologically formed microstructured material is the starting point for replicating or adapting structural patterns that have been selected through natural evolution to provide high values in certain functional properties. Often the structural patterns of these biological materials are the reason these functional characteristics can be achieved with much less weight than conventional industrial materials with the same characteristics. In computational approaches to materials design and in M&S of innovatively structured materials, as well as in biomimetics, the Army should continue to stimulate research, continue to be involved in the information and application-development networks with academic and industrial partners, and Took for opportunities to leverage its resources by actively participating in joint-service and other programs to increase the knowledge base in this field. One opportunity for leverage might be in the commercial development and use of microstructural models to design manufacturing processes. Airframe and Engine Designs In Chapter 5, the committee discussed the problem of providing an AAN battle force with the operational mobility required by the AAN concepts. There are no airborne (or off-the-ground) candidates for providing tactical mobility for an entire AAN battle force that can maneuver in three dimensions at five times the speed of current ground combat vehicles, and use less fuel. To meet these requirements, the Army will have to find novel, nonconventional air mobility concepts. Even a demonstrated technology like the WIG (wing-in-ground) aircraft will require a great deal of both basic and applied research. Therefore, the committee listed airframe and engine design as a research area in Table 10-~. Whether or not the Army finds promising novel options for operational and tactical air vehicles, reducing the fuel demand of air vehicles must be an objective. A distributed, hierarchical M&S environment can help in designing airframes and engines for increased fuel economy. Chapters 4 and 5 focused on the importance of this kind of M&S environment for ground vehicles, but an analogous argument can be made for air vehicle system design and logistics trade-off analyses. Foundations for some of the engineering-level components of this environment already exist-for example, the {HPTET program for the commercial development of high-performance turbine engines and the airframe design environments used by the aviation industry.

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150 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT The Army should ensure that it has access to tools that can simulate the logisti- cal performance, as well as other performance characteristics, of its airborne systems. Like the M&S environment for ground mobility, the "air mobility M&S environment" must provide links from the engagement levels described in Chapter 3 down to the sub- system and component levels of air vehicle design, with the capability of feeding design results from Tower levels back up to the vehicle system and engagement levels. if a search for nonconventional air mobility does turn up promising candidates, the M&S environment will be essential for maturing the technology and fielding logistically com- petent systems by 2025. Unmanned and Minimally Crewed Vehicles Reducing crew size can reduce the fuel demand of battlefield vehicles primarily by decreasing the amount of vehicle structure (hence weight) required for substructures, such as the cockpit and the protection subsystem (armor). The potential for reducing the total system weight and the design trade-offs with other performance objectives will have to be analyzed and optimized using a distributed M&S environment. Although UGVs are likely to have many uses in both AAN and Army XXT operations, subsystem automation appears to be a more reasonable, evolutionary approach to reducing the crew complement in general-purpose combat vehicles. if a combat unit of vehicles (a squad) is considered as a "fighting system," one or more of the vehicles could be an uncrewed subsystem controlled and supervised by a human unit commander in another vehicle. As Army and DARPA technology demonstrations of UGVs for specialized functions continue, the technology of subsystem automation can be converged with the technology of specialized uncrewed vehicles with a human controller/commander nearby. For the sake of simplicity, the general field of research relevant to subsystem automation and autonomous mobility is listed in Table 10-! as "robotics." Relevant aspects of research include control theory and control system engineering, which are considered a part of the field of artificial intelligence. Mobility Systems Designing and fielding AAN combat vehicles that incorporate highly efficient energy management while meeting other performance requirements will require thorough evaluations of the vehicle as a system from the concept design forward. Although some technologies, such as hybrid drive vehicles, have been widely accepted in the Army community as increasing vehicle fuel economy, the committee believes that total system evaluations shad! be done in the context of ANN mission requirements and operational concepts. Evaluations should not be focused on maximizing any one performance goal, even fuel economy. With new technologies in intelligent engines, energy storage and recovery, active suspension, and terrain SA, system energy demands can be managed more efficiently. The capability of dynamic management must be designed into the vehicle system. For ground vehicles, the capabilities of the driver will be a significant factor. Driver training for AAN operations will have to include the management of energy demand in the context of the cross-country mobility goals for the AAN battle force.

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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 151 In Chapter 4, the committee endorsed a recommendation that has been made in previous Army-sponsored studies but has not yet been implemented. This is probably the simplest way to ensure that evaluations of mobility systems take fuel demand seriously and that optimum energy management systems are incorporated into AAN vehicles. All vehicle procurements should include a clear, unequivocal, and easily measurable limit on vehicle fuel consumption. Terrain Awareness Terrain awareness, like SA generally, is very important to meeting performance goals other than in logistics supportability. For example, a high level of terrain aware- ness will be essential to tactical planning and high cross-country speeds. Terrain awareness is listed in Table 10-1 to emphasize its importance for improving the energy management of ground vehicles. The key enabling technology areas for terrain aware- ness are Took-ahead sensors and systems. Mobility models will also facilitate the design and assessment of terrain awareness technologies. Look-ahead sensor systems will be one subsystem of the SA system for terrain awareness. Real-time data on current terrain conditions in the vicinity of the vehicle and the vehicle's projected course will be used to update the terrain database and SA sensor information stored in the vehicle (Chapter 6~. Technology for terrain awareness is being developed at TARDEC, WES, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Topographic Laboratory. Potentially relevant research on new sensing methods and processing methodologies for assessing soil conditions, penetrating foliage and ground cover, and evaluating other terrain factors is being conducted by academic-industrial networks, which are motivated primarily by potential commercial applications but which offer the Army an opportunity to leverage its resources. The Army's SRO for intelligent systems is also a venue for tapping into broader research in sensing and imaging. The mobility models will provide a virtual test bed for assessing the logistical consequences of specific aspects of terrain awareness coupled with maneuver doctrine and tactics to conserve fuel while meeting other performance goals. The mobility models will have to incorporate the terrain conditions that are recognizable to the candidate terrain awareness system and realistically simulate the consequences of the vehicle's interaction with the terrain on performance (e.g., ground speed, maneuverability, and avoiding or traversing obstacles) and fuel consumption. New Energy Delivery Systems A reliable fuel supply system is critical for a modern land combat force. The Anny's exploration of significant changes in the fuel supply system to facilitate AAN operations and decrease logistics burdens should be based on an adequate model of the entire fuel supply system. The model should include a realistic simulation of the significant logistics considerations and their impacts on the fuel supply system and the war-fighting organization. The AAN war-gaming process has recently begun to incorporate modeling of fuel-supply logistics at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. An immediate objective should be the realistic coupling of a fuel-supply mokle! to the fuel demands of AAN system concepts being tested in a war-game. The techniques

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152 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT and systems used to achieve this modeling capability could also be used for fuel-system trade-off analyses, mission planning, and training exercises. The modeling of energy system capabilities and energy requirements, based on trade-off analyses, including quantified logistical savings, may lead to totally new energy delivery paradigms for the AAN battle force. As a radical alternative to the current delivery system, which is based on transporting a petroleum-based fuel (diesel) for use in internal combustion engines, the committee investigated using hydrogen as a battlefield fuel for combustion engines and fuel cells. A hydrogen production facility at the staging area could be powered by a compact nuclear reactor. Technological developments to support this radical altemative include scaling up the existing technology for compact nuclear reactors and improving the energy output per unit mass of electrolysis units that produce hydrogen from water. Although these developments seem feasible in the AAN time frame, a more difficult obstacle will be the development of lightweight, compact storage facilities for the hydrogen fuel. Unless all of these issues can be resolved in favor of this radical alternative, the existing system will be difficult to beat, although it can be improved by careful system optimization. Lethal Systems Performance and Reduced System Weight The principal focus of reducing logistics demands for lethal systems is reducing the ammunition burden. However, large lethal systems have substantial weight and require energy (fuel) to move them strategically and operationally, as well as tactically (on the battlefield). Some of the proposed alternatives to conventional chemically propelled projectile systems, such as the EM and ETC concepts, in effect trade part of the ammunition burden for increases in fuel. Both of these concepts require that fue] energy be converted to electrical power to propel the projectile, which means more fuel is required to move the heavier system, which must include an energy conversion and management subsystem. Depending on the details of the technology and its operational profile, trading ammunition weight for an increase in fuel weight may increase or decrease the total logistics burden. The committee found no evidence that these trade-offs are being considered systematically. in fact, the committee was unable to find data on the quantities of fuel and ammunition used in past military operations that would be adequate to study past burden trade-offs. The presence in Table 10-! of this objective is intended to remind the Army that the logistics trade-off analyses for any system should include all logistical considerations. Comparisons of alternative systems with respect to logistics burdens and performance characteristics including logistics should address all of the relevant burdens. Situational Awareness and Precision Guidance AAN operational concepts, as reflected in terms such as "precision maneuver and "precision fires," assume a near perfect level of SA (see Chapter 6 and Appendix F). From a logistical standpoint, this essential SA is not a burden that can be measured in weight or volume. Rather, it is a critical necessity, a logistical choke-point; any loss or degradation in the supply of SA information to AAN combat units can have cascading consequences, up to and including total defeat. Although the committee was primarily ,,

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INVESTMENTSTRATEGYFOR RESEARCHAND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 153 concerned with logistics burdens reflected in weight and volume, this critical requirement for near-perfect SA was so ubiquitous across AAN technology applications that the committee felt compelled to note areas where AAN planners seem to be taking SA for granted. In addition to the need for near-perfect SA in all aspects of AAN engagement concepts, SA technologies and their applications could significantly reduce the ammunition burden. With near-perfect SA, force dispositions and environmental conditions would be known precisely, which would improve the effectiveness of precision guided lethal systems and reduce the number of rounds required (and the number of rounds fired) per target. SA and precision guidance have the most potential to reduce the ammunition logistics burden of all technology applications assessed by the committee. Technology Development Areas There is considerable overlap in the technology development and research areas that would contribute to meeting the road map objectives of SA and precision guidance. Many of the basic electronic, electro-optical, and data processing technologies necessary for SA technology applications in Table 10-! (communications and sensor systems, decision support aids, data integration and filterings are also applicable to the affordable, small, integrated guidance systems required for precision guided missiles and munitions. In the AAN time frame, UAVs and UGVs will be important sensor platforms for a wide range of C4ISR applications, ranging from intelligence preparation of the battle space and real-time communications at all levels of command, to tactical scouting and targeting for individual fighting units. The many active development programs for UAV and UGV sensor platforms throughout DoD and other government agencies, such as the NRO and NIMA, as well as the Army, should be reviewed periodically to determine whether they are collectively addressing AAN requirements. If necessary, the Army should identify and set priorities to redirect these programs. Research Areas All of the research areas on basic and applied knowledge relevant to the SA technology applications will contribute to the near-perfect SA for AAN missions. The committee chose to highlight research on C4ISR supportability and robustness because of the significant unresolved issues in these areas. Four current Army SROs (in nanoscience, smart structures, mobile wireless communications, and intelligent systems) support some (but not all) aspects of SA technology. Also, the intelligent systems SRO should enable the Army to focus on Army-specific basic research to support UGV technology. This research will continue to draw on advances first tested and used in UAVs or undersea vehicles (assuming that support continues for defense-relevant research in robotics, control theory, and engineering for unmanned vehicles and the C4ISR enabling technologies that apply to UGVs and UAVs). Other research areas to support advances in precision guidance, include the fusion of on-board sensors, reliable, inexpensive compact packaging, and sensor-actuator integration and control.

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154 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT Reducing the Ammunition Burden through Lethal Systems Performance Besides SA and precision guidance, other performance characteristics of weapon systems (e.g., range and reproducibility of propelling force) also contribute to reducing the number of rounds required per target. Significant trade-offs (with respect to reducing the weight of a round) among alternative designs for a given concept or competing concepts might be possible. Reductions in ammunition burden must be considered along with the fuel requirement for moving or energizing alternative weapon systems. Another Togistics-related consideration is the size of the crew required for the weapon system, compared to alternative systems with similar functionality. The factors related to reducing logistics burdens should be assessed along with lethality performance characteristics in the context of clearly identified AAN lethality requirements. The committee found no obvious winners among the potential alternatives for major weapon-systems, such as the main armament of AAN "front line" combat vehicles or the fire support systems that might be integral elements of a battle force. This absence of clear winners reflects the lack of relevant data rather than equal potential performance of the enabling technologies or system concepts. Even at the level of broad technolo~v options. such as liouid oro~eliants versus modular solid propellants the - -Cam -1- - -A ~ - -1----- r- -r -a -I r--r ---a 7 -- available ~ntormahon on AAN requirements and logist~cs-relevant performance of the competing technologies is insufficient for the Army to make an informed choice. The projectile weapon-system concepts and enabling technologies reviewed by the committee have already been in development for more than the time remaining until system choices must be made for the first generation of AAN platforms. So the lack of relevant data (even of estimates or reasonable guesses) cannot be explained by the novelty of the technologies or basic system concepts. The ongoing development programs have simply not provided the base of data for making systems-level comparisons and trade-off decisions that take logistics burdens into account. To remedy this situation, the Army should leverage the existing R&D programs in projectile weapons and supporting technologies to provide data for modeling system alternatives and making rational trade-of32s. Data on logistics support requirements should be compiled for each enabling technology or system concept. By assessing these disparate programs and development efforts from the standpoint of their contributions to a hierarchical simulation of system options and informed design trade-offs, the Army will be able to determine where modifications or additions should be made to the S&T base. Energetics and Warhead Materials Improving the performance of the energetic s (propellants and explosives) in a missile or projectile round can reduce the mass and volume per round without compromising lethality or can reduce the number of rounds required to achieve the desired effect. Improving uniformity of burn, for example, can improve precision thereby reducing the average number of rounds required to hit a target. Energetics with higher energy density may enable the delivery system to be lighter and smaller. Less obvious, but equally important in terms of burden reduction for a given technology investment, are the indirect effects of less sensitive munitions. The best chances for burden reduction are from technological advances that would improve the

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INVESTMENTSTRATEGYFOR RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 155 performance of an energetic as a propellant or explosive while decreasing its sensitivity to heat or shock. The Army should continue (or increase) its participation in the IHPRPT program while focusing on meeting the needs for AAN systems, including missile systems that can be launched from small vehicles, reach high velocity quickly (Mach 6 and greater), produce minimal smoke, and are insensitive to thermal and shock threats. These systems must also be throttleable and adaptable to various missions. Solid-fue! ramjets are an option to explore for high-speed, relatively low-cost missiles for AAN operations. The development of energetic s that are insensitive to shock and thermal threats must be based on a basic understanding of the mechanisms of insensitivity. This understanding can be achieved through studies in quantum chemistry, chemical and thermal decomposition, and improved computer modeling of shock and thermal events. The Army should keep abreast of ongoing research at the national laboratories on new, high-energy energetic materials (such as metastable interstitial composites) that may offer tailorable output and improve energy-density over current energetic fills. The Army should develop insensitive, high-energy warhead fills and novel mitigation-barrier materials to eliminate fratricide. The Army should also support the development of reactive, three-dimensional detonation physics hydrocodes for warhead design and target interactions. Systems Design for Reliability The reliability requirements for AAN systems should be defined first at the functional level of meeting mission requirements. The war-fighters and technologists engaged in the AAN process should work together to define objective, quantifiable, accountable terms for mission reliability, beginning at the highest levels of engagement analysis and proceeding down to reliability requirements for individual systems (platforms or vehicles). The S&T community should ensure that the Tower levels of system analysis include reliability-related performance metrics during design and system trade-off studies. The committee identified two technology development areas as critical for designing systems for reliability. First, the distributed M&S environments used to support system design and logistics trade-off analysis should be extended to provide the following five elements, which are not included in current M&S tools used by the Army: models that represent the system properties and environmental conditions that affect AAN mission reliability requirements measurable reliability-related requirements for models at every level in the M&S hierarchy iterative simulations up and down the hierarchy of models in the design and . . eng1neenng process provisions for obtaining valid data on lesser-known design options that could contribute to meeting combinations of AAN performance goals (including mission reliability) maintenance of mission reliability, defined by assessable reliability require- ments, as a performance objective for design and engineering development

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156 RED UCING THE L OGISTICS B URDEN FOR THE ARMY AFTER NEXT As the committee noted in the discussion of the road map objective of lightweight materials for air and ground vehicles, necessary improvements in informa- tion resources for materials selection at the component level of the hierarchy include improved data and representations for assessing the reliability-related features of mater- ials. The discussion of lightweight materials also covered a research area that is important for the long-term innovation of materials that are more reliable for specific applications, as well as lighter in weight and able to meet other performance require- ments. If reliability requirements are conveyed down the structural hierarchy from the systems level to the level of requirements for materials for components and structures, materials research could contribute decisions about a range of candidates already avail- able to designers. The areas of materials research relevant to improving reliability are (~) the mechanisms of failure and the incorporation of this knowledge into M&S tools, (2) the selection or design of materials that can meet AAN requirements, including reliabil- ity requirements, that familiar materials cannot meet, and (3) embedded prognostic sensing technology in designing structures and components. The Army should continue to leverage its resources in these areas of research through networking with industry and academic partners and through active participation in joint-services programs. Compact Power Personal power sources for the dismounted soldier is a major logistics concern, not because of the tonnage involved but because the effectiveness of individual soldiers is a combat necessity. For meeting this objective, the committee supports the recommendations on research areas and relevant technologies of an in-depth NRC study of energy-efficient technologies for the dismounted soldier (NRC, 1 997a). Long-term research to increase dramatically the amount of energy stored per unit weight carried by soldiers will require a different approach than traditional electrochemical batteries. The compact power SRO has focused research on fuel cells and on microturbines, a high-risk, high-payoff alternative to batteries. Prototypes of rechargeable fuel cell systems with high potential for soldier application have already been demonstrated. A fundamental departure from electrochemical batteries would be nuclear batteries providing for direct conversion of low-level nuclear energy to electrical power, which may be feasible with icosahedral borides or another semiconductor with photovoltaic properties. Lightweight Protection Systems for Individual Soldiers The ideal protective garment for the soldier of the future will have to be multifunctional. In addition to preventing or minimizing injury from small-caliber rounds and shrapnel, it should also protect the wearer from biological and chemical threats and from residual radiation following a nuclear blast. Protection from the NBC (nuclear, biological, and chemical) threats requires a barrier to air exchange with the external environment, which implies that thermal management and purification of respirable air will also be necessary. At the same time, this garment or protective system must not impede the soldier's ability to see and hear or to move and react quickly to the physical demands of a combat environment. Indeed, the advantages of personal sensor

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INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT 157 systems and exoskeleton arrays is to enhance the perceptions and physical strength of soldiers. For each of these functional requirements in isolation, there are technologies that at least offer promise, if not near-term practical implementation. From the perspective of decreasing logistics demand, the more difficult challenge is to meet all of the functional requirements and objectives in one set of protective gear. A suitable level of functionality in each area must be integrated into an optimally performing, highly reliable, protective and supportive system of combat gear. Since weight is a primary consideration for soldier logistics, the system may have to be modular so different combinations of functionality could be supplied and distributed for use on the AAN battlefield. The Army has been successful in meeting Army XXI soldier requirements by approaching the "soldier as a system." Technology development programs to address these needs, including programs in chemical and biological defense and the Twenty-First Century Land Warrior Program, are developing technologies that can be inserted into functional open-system architectures. A similar strategy that incorporates AAN logistics trade-off analyses is recommended to minimize logistics support requirements for AAN soldier systems. Advances in Combat Medicine, Nutrition, and Soldier Fitness The logistics of sustaining an individual soldier physiologically for the duration of an AAN combat pulse or mission are more complicated than identifying technological possibilities for meeting one or another requirement or advancing toward one or another desirable capability. The human soldier is the Anny's most complicated system. Attempts to alter radically the proven methods of sustaining soldiers under combat conditions will require a careful assessment of the effects on overall performance. The consequences may be indirect, delayed, or cumulative and may have little or no immediate or easily observable effects. The Army is pursuing many avenues in this area; most of those briefed to committee members should be ready for extensive testing well before the AAN time frame. The area clearly has high potential for increasing the combat effectiveness of AAN soldiers. However, the committee did not have the expertise to make an in-depth assessment of technological opportunities in this area. AAN Logistics Trade-off Analyses across Burden Reduction Goals This report has repeatedly emphasized that burden reduction goals should not be pursued in isolation from other performance objectives, and vice versa. It is equally true that any burden reduction goal cannot be pursued in isolation from other logistics burdens that affect the perfonnance profile of a system. The small unit and force-on- force engagement levels of the distributed M&S environment described in Chapter 3 can be particularly valuable for the design analyses for assessing consequences in terms of logistics burdens (as well as other performance objectives) and for making necessary trade-offs. However, the results will only be as realistic and dependable as the relationships built into each level of the M&S hierarchy.

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158 REDUCING THE LOGISTICS BURDEN FOR THE ARMYAFTER NEXT Situational Awareness for Logistics Operations Technology to improve logistics operations was not part of this study. However, the committee was briefed on the Army's ongoing plans for a revolution in military logistics to achieve the concept of focused logistics for Joint Vision 2010. The basic technologies that underlie these planned advances in logistics operations overlap considerably with the technologies that will enable the SA required to support precision guidance terrain awareness, and many other AAN performance objectives that this report does address. Furthermore, many of the same issues related to the supportability and robustness of military C4ISR systems have significant implications for logistics operations.