Click for next page ( 243


The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page 242

OCR for page 242
JEROME NAMIAS March 19, 1910-February 10, 1997 BY JOHN O. ROADS rEROME NAMIAS WAS one of the worlcl's greatest long-range forecasters of what he likes! to call the worlcl's seconc! ~ Lost complex problem.1 Hecht (1986) clescribec! him as "a man who gives goof! reasons for any long-range forecast en c! even better reasons for why it fails . . . a man who is an infinite source of goof! icleas . . . who thinks fast on his feet . . . is always a scholar . . . en c! a gentleman." While lacking formal meteorological training, Namias eventually receiver! the highest awards of the American Meteorological Society en c! helper! to fount! the long-range forecasting branch of the U.S. National Weather Service en c! the Climate Research Division en c! the Experimental Climate Precliction Center at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. In November 1989 Namias sufferer! a stroke. Although he was aware of events arounc! him, he was partially paralyzer! en c! was un- able to speak or write thereafter. His loving wife Edith, ciaugh- ter Juclith Immenschuh, ant! grancichilciren Dylan en c! Sionna ~ survive . film. FALL RIVER Jerome Namias grew up in Fall River, Massachusetts, the son of Joseph en c! Saclie Jacobs) Namias. He became en 243

OCR for page 242
244 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS thusiastic about the weather because of a high school phys- ics teacher en c! the town's amateur meteorologist, who was a cooperative observer for the weather bureau en c! a wealthy broker. Eventually Namias set up his own weather station, using instruments he bought from his earnings as a cloor- to-cloor salesman en c! a jazz drummer. When Namias heart! about the American Meteorological Society, founclec! by Charles F. Brooks in 1919 en c! that its requirements for membership were moclest ("a sincere interest en c! annual dues of $2 per year"), he immediately joined. Although his friends thought that Namias was getting into meteorology because of the money,2 his father initially saw little or no chance of Namias making a living on what he thought was a hobby.3 Namias began his "hobby" by keeping records en c! cirawing weather maps from reports publisher! in the tinily newspaper, but soon he began making forecasts for his friencis, a practice he was to carry out to the extreme for the rest of his life.4 On graduation from high school, Namias was offered a four-year scholarship to Wesleyan University in Connecti- cut, however, because of his father's illness and the Great Depression, Namias cleciclec! to stay home en c! try to fins! a job to help his family out. Namias subsequently became ill with tuberculosis en c! was confiner! to his home. Even so, his appetite for self-study soon emerged and he took many correspondence courses, inclucling a course in meteorol- ogy given at Clark University by Charles F. Brooks. Although Namias was never to receive an unclergracluate clegree,5 he eventually receiver! an M.S. in 1941 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 1972 the University of Rhocle IsTanc! awarclec! him an honorary Ph.D., as clic! Clark Uni- versity in 1975.

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS FIRST METEOROLOGICAL JOB 245 At the enc! of his confinement, Namias wrote letters to many meteorologists asking for a job, citing his stucly of their papers en c! books. He was unsuccessful until H. H. Clayton at the Blue Hill Observatory, who was working with Charles G. Abbot, secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, finally offerer! Namias a job. Clayton interviewoc! Namias by asking him to extract station pressures from the isobars on some random weather maps. Clayton took the same test and, when the results were in, he fount! that both he en c! Namias macle one mistake. Namias was hirer! on the spot en c! sent to the weather bureau in Washington, D.C., where the ciata was (anc! still is). This position involves! getting ciata for compilation of worIc! weather records, an interna- tionally known series put out by the Smithsonian, en c! for solar weather studies. Namias took this opportunity to react en c! meet the many famous meteorologists whose articles en c! books he hac! previously react. In the weather bureau library, Namias soon cliscoverec! the many scholarly papers of the Norwegian or Bergen School,6 en c! these papers were to influence his later research. Namias also fount! the ini- tial set of scientific reports issues! by Car! G. Rossby's newly founclec! department of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) en c! with colossal nerve wrote a letter to Rossby politely questioning a couple of his state- ments in one of his papers. Soon Namias receiver! a re- sponse from Rossby saying that Namias was partially cor- rect, en c! wouic! Namias stop by en c! see him when he got a chance. MIT Rossby was to have a major influence on Namias's life. To help out with unclergracluate tuition, Rossby arranger! a job

OCR for page 242
246 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS for Namias. Namias began to take en c! analyze the recorcI- ings of the research aircraft instruments user! by the cle- partment at the East Boston Airport. Sometimes, Namias's work entailec! fourteen-hour clays, which incluclec! tracking balloon runs with the help of a theoclolite to determine wine! directions en c! speecis at various altitucles. This was sometimes dangerous work. According to Namias (1986), "On one occasion, a hometown frienc! came to visit at the airport, en c! I encouragec! him to watch me sent! up the pilot balloons. He came into the shot! where balloons were inflated. Shortly thereafter I notes! that he was smoking, while I was inflating the balloons from the tank of hyciro- gen! " Namias became interested especially in the structure of air masses en c! fronts as cleterminec! by the rapicIly expancI- ing aerological network of airplane soundings and pilot bal- loon wine! soundings macle in Boston, as well as at other places like Detroit en c! Chicago. These new sounclings macle it possible for Namias to construct cross-sections through the fronts by combining ascents in time en c! space (1934~. Some of the central icleas for Namias's analysis of the fron- tal structure stemmer! from the work of l. Bjerknes, who hac! pioneered aerological studies of cyclones over Europe en c! from research carrier! on at MIT by Prof. Hurt! Willett, an authority on American air masses en c! fronts. Namias eventually was to write a series of introductory articles on stability en c! air mass properties (1936~.7 In 1934, with the advent of the rapidity expanding airline industry en c! its desire to establish meteorological clepart- ments,8 Namias (on the acivice of Rossby) acceptec! a job at Trans Woric! Airlines, first at Newark en c! then at Kansas City. In these assignments, Namias got a taste of the real worIc! of meteorology: rouncI-the-clock work shifts en c! stressful forecasting for early transcontinental flights. Problems in

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 247 volvec! icing on aircraft, Tow ceilings, zero visibility clue to fog, blowing crust in the Dust Bow! area, en c! hazardous wincis. There was no time for scientific investigations or for Namias to continue his unclergracluate education. He even- tually got the impression that airline meteorologists were "seconcI-cIass citizens arounc! the air terminals, who often servec! as scapegoats for weather-relatec! accidents." There- fore, when TWA hac! to downsize temporarily clue to the curtailment of government airmail service, Namias was happy to return to part-time work at MIT en c! Blue Hill Observa- tory, even though he hac! to learn to live on student pay once Kiln. a- Namias, by this time, was known as an expert forecaster. He gave acivice to Piccarcis in connection with his recorcI- setting high-altitucle balloon flights. He helpec! out at the national glicling en c! soaring contest in New York, where DuPont macle a distance recorc! for the Uniter! States by using Namias's forecast of a strong frontal passage to glicle all the way to Boston. According to Namias (1986), "I still marvel at his courage en c! my colossal nerve in proposing such a dangerous flight path!" Namias was not infallible. Asker! to forecast for the Harvarc! tercentennial, Namias forecast a light rain, which turner! into a ruinous clown- pour. Bac! forecasts9 wouIc! disappoint, but they wouIc! never stop Namias, who felt that forecasts were one of the best teaching tools a meteorologist hacI. Oilman (1986), who succeeclec! Namias as chief of the weather bureau, wouIc! later stress the probabilistic nature of forecasts, which is especially important when clearing with the growing uncer- tainty at long ranges. Namias then cleciclec! to finally get his unclergracluate cle- gree, enrollee! at the University of Michigan, where tuition was more afforciable than at MIT. Unfortunately, serious physical problems (pleural effusion) forcer! him once again

OCR for page 242
248 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS to abandon his unclergracluate plans en c! return to Fall River, where he again proceeclec! with self-stucly en c! also publisher! a seminal paper on atmospheric inversions (1936~. Again impressed, Rossby offered Namias a graduate assistantship beginning with the 1936 fall term at MIT. Rossby hac! just begun working on his theory of long waves on the wester- lies en c! was trying to convince people of its vaTiclity. One of the main difficulties in applying Rossby's ideas involved the lack of ciata aloft, particularly over the oceans. At Rossby's suggestion, Namias constructor! a trial upper-level man by juclicial extrapolations, estimating quantitatively the flow patterns aloft over the North Atlantic, as well as the Uniter! States. Namias was later one of the unnamec! contributors to Rossby's paper (1939~.~ At MIT Namias met Edith Paipert, who was to become his wife in the fall of 1938. Harry WexTer, his best frienc! since grammar school, hac! marries! her sister Hannah, en c! years earlier Namias hac! introclucec! Harry to Rossby en c! the field! of meteorology. Eclith was an artistic en c! hac! a feel for symmetry, balance, en c! aesthetics, en c! wouIc! com- ment on the aesthetics (or lack thereof of Namias's weather maps. "It soon became clear that the parts of my analysis that she clic! not like were incorrect en c! conic! be macle both more artistically satisfying en c! scientifically correct by mollification. It was then that I reaTizec! the close associa- tion between art en c! science. In fact, in a couple of courses I taught at MIT, this philosophy was stressed, much to the chagrin of a few or mv contemporaries 1- 1 1 1 1 ~ ~ e~ OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 249 clear en c! easily iclentifiecI. Isentropic trajectories often car- riec! the high-level moisture southwarc! into the southern states, even though the surface wincis were blowing from the south. Thunderstorms occurrec! where the creep moist air enhancer! convection, which normally is impeclec! by entrainment of ciry air aloft. Summer thunderstorms over the Great Plains of the Uniter! States clic! not occur haphaz- arcIly, but they frequently mover! in clusters in upper-air moist currents that flower! in great anticyclonic systems in micI-troposphere. Eliassen (1986) notes! later that he en c! his contemporaries, who hac! stucliec! Namias's aerological papers before the war, were amazes! to see that someone their age (twenty-three) hac! written such extraordinary pa- pers. Eliassen further notes! that isentropic analysis has pro- viclec! the basis for much of moclern meteorological insta- bility theory developed later by Charney and others. EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTS It was another aspect of Namias's research, though, that was to capture his attention en c! eventually become part of his identity. Namias was the junior member Graduate assis- tant) of the team that was trying to clevelop extenclec! fore- casting on time scales on the order of a week. According to Hecht (1986), this was reporter! in the New York Times as: "The weather bureau has enTistec! the air! of experts from several universities in starting a study of long-range fore- casting." According to Namias (1986), "It soon became clear that none of us knew what we were cloing, other than color- ing charts with rec! en c! blue crayons." In fact, Namias was instrumental in cleveloping the scientific basis for experi- mental forecasts for times (then) as far as five clays into the future.~3

OCR for page 242
250 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS WORLD WAR II The military services became especially interested in MIT's extenclec! forecast work (1941), en c! it was eventually cle ciclec! to shift the extenclec! forecasting project to Washing- ton, where it wouIc! be closer to defense preparations for the looming war. Namias was asker! to take a one-year leave of absence from MIT en c! heat! up the controversial project. According to Namias (1986), "Our reception by some of the weather bureau personnel was not exactly corclial . . . attempting forecasts for a perioc! of five clays in advance was Thought to be] utterly foolish." Namias was to heat! the extenclecI-range forecast ct~v~s~on tor the next thirty years, en c! he wrote a monograph on extenclec! forecasting tech- niques, which was promptly stamper! conficlential. A few years later, this monograph was declassified, brought up to ciate, en c! printer! for general distribution ~947). During the war, Namias supervisec! an historical sea-level map project,~4 lectured Air Force cadets, Navy officers, and civilians at various university training centers, en c! macle extenclec! predictions for many wartime events. Namias re- ceivec! a citation from Navy Secretary Frank Knox for his sea-state forecasts for the North African invasion.~5 Namias also macle forecasts for favorable periods for the transfer of clisablec! vessels to other ports for repair, estimates of the likely course of incendiary balloons from Japan, favorable en c! unfavorable conditions for the possible invasion of {a- pan, and certain aspects of the meteorology for bombing raids. i6 ~ . . . ~ . .. . . NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION After the war, meteorology changer! to a more computa- tional science. At the Institute of Acivancec! Stucly in Princeton, Johnny von Neumann initiates! a project in nu

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 25 merical forecasting with the use of the supercomputer of the clay. This project involves! rule Charney, Phil Thomp- son, Johnny Freeman, Hans Panofsky, Ragnar Fjortoft, Arnt Eliassen, Joe Smagorinsky, Norm Phillips, en c! many others. Charney clevelopec! the first successful numerical forecast using the barotropic moclel, which Namias hac! been em- ploying for several years following Rossby's classical 1939 work. Namias (1986) was font! of noting that "at the first meeting to discuss the new Princeton endeavor, to which about 35 of the nation's top meteorologists were invites! to give acivice, no one suggested, as a starting point, the barotropic model!" Although Namias was photographed with the group that macle the first forecast (see Namias, 1986), he was really only peripherally involvecI. His role was mainly to make sure the computer-generatec! forecasts resembles! the real atmosphere.~7 CONFLUENCE Rossby, who returnee! to Swollen after the war to fount! the International Institute of Meteorology, subsequently in- vitec! Namias to Stockholm. There Namias investigates! variations in upper airflow patterns. Particularly notewor- thy was his study (1949) of confluence with his long-time colleague Phil CIapp. Confluence en c! cliffluence qualita- tively describe asymmetric variations in the upper-level wincis. At the upper levels, the strongest climatological wincis or jets occur off the coast of Eurasia en c! North America (anc! over North Africa). In the entrance region to these jets, a thermoclynamically direct circulation occurs. That is, warm air rises in the south en c! sinks in the north. In the clifflu- ent regions over the ocean, an opposite indirect circulation occurs. As cliscussec! by Newton (1986) confluence theory has been increasingly stucliec! in recent meteorological lit

OCR for page 242
252 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS erasure (jet streaks) en c! its popularity will grow as we gain more experience unclerstancling vertical circulations. INDEX CYCLE Namias's stay in Swollen resultec! in another notable pa- per, a stucly of the inclex cycle (1950), the slow wintertime phenomenon when the westerlies first slowly Electing en c! then recover in a cycle of about four to six weeks. As notes! by Lorenz (1986) the zonal influx, or blocking variations, appears to happen at about the same time each spring en c! carry with it alterations in the positions en c! intensities of the centers of action. Implicit in this en c! other work was the fact that synoptic scale systems often went through a cycle in about a week, only to return in similar form in the following week or so, suggesting quasi-perioclicity, although Lorenz notices! that the motions were actually chaotic. Lorenz further noted that these kinds of studies were forgotten for some time because of the advent of numerical prediction. It was only much later that people began to realize that even these kinds of slowly varying and seemingly predict- able phenomena were in fact quite sensitive to initial con- ditions. Models to date have not been wholly successful in predicting the onset or clemise of high en c! low inclex con- ditions. Because of their potential for prediction, people will con- tinue to search for these en c! other perioclicities. Namias (1986) wrote that Irving Langmuir, the Nobel laureate, had trier! to show that his seecling of cloucis in New Mexico was responsible for establishing a weekly perioclicity in many meteorological elements as far away as the Ohio Valley. Langmuir became greatly interested! in Namias's work en c! invites! him to spenc! a few clays with him at General Elec- tric Company's Knolls Laboratories near Schenectady, N.Y. "Although he worked hard to convince me that the period o

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 257 SST anomalies, whereas these same early GCM experiments at least shower! some sensitivity to tropical SSTs. Namias sometimes has been iclentifiec! as a strict propo- nent of only micI-latitucle SST effects, in part because he was somewhat skeptical that influences from remote tropi- cal SSTs conic! overwhelm influences from local SST anoma- lies. According to Smagorinsky (1986), this discounting of tropical effects was clue in part to the stanciarc! weather bureau Northern Hemisphere maps, to which Namias hac! access.25 Still, when the TOGA (Tropical Ocean, Global At- mosphere) program was launchecI, Namias was a strong sup- porter, although he probably would have been a stronger supporter if it had been named GOGA (global ocean, gio- bal atmosphere). Namias's many teleconnection en c! micI- latitucle air-sea studies hac! convincer! him that knowlecige of the global ocean en c! global atmosphere ultimately wouic! be required. Despite Namias's tropical skepticism, he clic! clo some seminal ENSO (El Nino Southern OscilIation) work. As notes! by van Loon (1986), Namias (1976) was the first person to describe both extremes of the ENSO cycle, as well as its association with temperate latitucle wine! systems over the North Pacific. Perhaps more characteristically though, Namias en c! Dan Cayan (1984) clemonstratec! the lack of uniqueness in micicIle latitucles for different El Nino years. In much of his work (micI-latitucle en c! equatorial), Namias hac! the encouragement of I. Bjerknes, the great pioneer in El Nino en c! Southern Oscillation studies, who was stationer! nearby at the University of California, Los Angeles, en c! who worker! with Namias on the NORPAX program.26 SEASONAL FORECASTS Even though Namias officially hac! retiree! from govern- ment service in 1971, several requests for forecast informa

OCR for page 242
258 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS lion from high government sources continuccI. Among these requests were estimates of the character of the forthcoming winter over the East cluring the oil embargo of 1974. After several cold winters, Namias predicted that this critical win- ter would be mile! en c! on the basis of that prediction, the Carter administration cleciclec! not to issue gas-rationing carcis. More weather en c! climate aberrations occurrec! cluring the winter of 1976-77, when the Far West sufferer! a severe drought en c! the eastern two-thircis of the nation was very coicI, with frequent snows. These abnormalities were associ- atec! with large anomalies in upper-air wine! patterns en c! in North Pacific sea-surface temperatures. The pressure pat- terns hac! a strong ricige in the Far West en c! a strong trough over the East. Namias wrote, "These patterns were remark- ably stable from month to month over a six-month interval from fall to winter, so that a persistence forecast wouic! have been quite successful. Of course, one wouIc! have hac! to know in advance that the period was to be so persistent." Namias (1978) suggested that several premonitory signs shower! up in the fall of 1976, inclucling the forcing Pacific SST patterns, atmospheric flow patterns with strong tele- connections, an E! Nino in the tropics, and some early snows, providing enhanced baroclinicity along the eastern seaboard. All of these factors and the suggested enhancement by the normal general circulation led to an excellent forecast for the 1976-77 winter. Many numerical studies of this abnormal winter have since been concluctecI. At a large NATO-sponsorec! workshop in Italy both foe Smagorinsky of GFDL en c! Namias were in- vitec! to speak. Namias cliscussec! the synoptic en c! statistical characteristics of the meteorological situation, as well as his intuitive forecast. Smagorinsky then clescribec! the results obtained by Miyakoda, a member of Smagorinsky's staff at Princeton, which employer! a sophisticates! mocle! to pre

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 259 clict the weather for the entire month of January 1977, us- ing the ciata of January I, 1977, as initial ciata. Impressed by Miyakoda's predictions, Namias stated that he felt privi- legec! to be present at this public unveiling, much as he hac! been present on the occasion of the first numerical forecast macle a few clecacles earlier in Princeton. Later, less skillful numerical forecasts reinforcec! his often-statec! opin- ion that machines wouIc! never replace human forecasters, rather, they wouIc! be only a too! forecasters user! at long ranges. To conclucle, one of Namias's major accomplishments at Scripps was to help clevelop an experimental climate fore- cast center where novel techniques conic! be clevelopec! en c! restec! before being put into operation by the weather ser- vices. Namias was among several meteorologists who testi- fiec! before congressional committees about the clesirability of passage of this act, en c! he was especially impressed by the interest en c! questions of Senator Hubert Humphrey en c! Representative Charles Mosher, as well as those of Sena- tors Alan Cranston, AcIlai Stevenson, {r., among others. Even- tually the National Climate Act was passed, ant! in the , , ~1 ,1 ensuring competition among peers, Namias en c! Scripps col- leagues obtainer! the first such center for Scripps begin- ning in 1981. This center has continues! to thrive, as has the Climate Research Division, which he founclec! earlier. Namias's work thus hac! come full circle. From the earli- est beginnings at MIT, where he was a junior member of a project devoted to making experimental five-day forecasts, to the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center, where he starter! experimental seasonal forecasting efforts, Namias was the extreme forecaster. Namias was so much more than his moclest description of himself (Namias, 1986~: "A goof! synoptic meteorologist who was fortunate enough to have been on the scene when

OCR for page 242
260 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS great advances were being macle en c! one who natec! in some of the advances." Namias was an inspiration to several generations27 of meteorologists en c! climatolo- gists, not only from the podium of a large lecture hall, but also in one-on-one conversations. He, therefore, rightly gath- erec! a number of honors over the years. The most gratify- ing of all these honors was his election to the National Academy of Sciences. Namias wrote, "Something I thought would never happen because of the fuzzy nature of my field of research en c! my poor formal background.... It is an honor that strengthens my belief in our system, where a person is jucigec! solely on the basis of his contributions." r . . . partici EDUCATION Durfee High School, Fall River, Massachusetts Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1932-34, 1940-41, M.S. degree University of Michigan, 1934-35 University of Rhode Island, honorary D.Sc Clark University, honorary D.Sc., 1984 AWARD S ., 1972 1938 Meisinger Award, American Meteorological Society 1943 Citation from Navy Secretary Frank Knox for weather forecasts in connection with the invasion of North Africa 1950 Meritorious Service Award, U.S. Department of Commerce 1955 Award for Extraordinary Scientific Accomplishment, American Meteorological Society Rockefeller Public Service Award 1965 Gold Medal Award, U.S. Department of Commerce 1972 Rossby fellow, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 1977 Visiting scholar, Rockefeller Study and Conference Center, Bellagio, Italy 1978 Headliner Award (Science), San Diego Press Club 1981 Sverdrup Gold Medal, American Meteorological Society 1984 Compass Distinguished Achievement Award, Marine Technology Society

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 261 Associates Award for Research, University of California, San Diego 1985 Department of Commerce Certificate of Appreciation SOCIETIES American Academy of Arts and Sciences (fellow) American Association for the Advancement of Science (fellow) American Geophysical Union (fellow) American Meteorological Society (fellow), councilor 1940-42, 1950-53, 1960-63, and 1970-73 Board of Editors, Geofisica Internacional, Mexico Explorers Club (fellow) Mexican Geophysical Union National Academy of Sciences National Weather Association Royal Meteorological Society of Great Britain Sigma Xi Washington Academy of Sciences (fellow) NOTES 1. Namias liked to say that predicting human behavior was the most complex problem. 2. The cooperative observer was a millionaire. 3. His father was an optometrist for the immigrant New England Mill Workers and wanted Terome to follow in his footsteps much like his older brother. 4. Namias would give a detailed exposition to anyone who would listen on where the climate system had been and where it was headed, while pointing out many pertinent features on some of the many synoptic maps covering his office walls. 5. Namias may be the only member of the National Academy of Sciences with no undergraduate degree. 6. C. Rossby and T. Bjerknes were members of this school. 7. As noted by Fultz (1986), Namias was instrumental in intro- ducing air mass concepts to the U.S. community. 8. The aviation industry has always been highly dependent on and a strong supporter of the National Weather Service. Standard products and forecasts are tailored precisely for that industry. 9. A number of other bad forecasts are mentioned in Namias's

OCR for page 242
262 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS (1986) autobiography, including one on his honeymoon. 10. According to Lorenz (1986), the paper by Rossby and col- laborators (1939) may be one of the best-known meteorological papers ever published. 11. Harry Wexler would eventually go on to become chief of re- search at the National Weather Service. 12. Among the many paintings of Edith Namias is the cover of the National Academy of Sciences' "GOALS" document. 13. Extended-range forecasts at five days are standard weather service medium-range forecast products; the weather service, as well as many other groups, are now making even longer range seasonal forecasts. 14. As noted in a Namias memorial talk given by van den Dool at the 22nd Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, this was really the first major reanalysis project. All the major numerical weather pre- diction centers have since carried out major reanalyses, which now involve both model predictions as well as observations. 15. Sverdrup and Munk developed the oceanographic prediction techniques, which depended on estimates of the wind systems over much of the North Atlantic several days in advance. 16. According to Edith Namias, because men's lives were at stake, this was the most stressful period of Namias's life. 17. Many years previously (ca. 1920) the great British scientist Richardson made the world's first numerical forecast and was nota- bly wrong by many orders of magnitude. 18. According to Edith Namias, because of Rossby and all his parties, their stay in Sweden was very pleasant. 19. Later re-named the Rossby Research Medal. 20. Rasmusson (1998) noted that the field of numerical weather prediction then developing eclipsed empirical research for the next several decades, which resulted in a real decline in budget dollars for Namias's empirical efforts. 21. His long-time collaborator Phil Clapp was also retiring at the same time, and Clapp also passed away in 1997, a few weeks after Namias. 22. As noted by Cayan (1998), Namias's collected works (1984) contain the same number of papers before Scripps (73) as the num- ber written after his work began there (72). 23. Namias was among the first to describe interdecadal variabil

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 263 ity, which was later amplified by other collaborators (e.g., Dickson and Namias, 1976; Douglas et al., 1982) and is now being reinvestigated with modern coupled models and improved data sets. 24. Some of this insensitivity was probably due to the model used, which was part of the early generation of general circulation mod- els. Other models have since shown greater sensitivity to global SSTs. 25. Not too many years ago, only information north of 20N was included in almost all weather map displays. 26. NORPAX was an outgrowth of the Scripps North Pacific Stud- ies started earlier by John Isaacs. 27. Namias often mentioned the time when someone came up to him after a lecture and congratulated him on following in his father's footsteps. REFERENCES Anthes, R. A., and Y.-H. Kuo. 1986. The influence of soil moisture on circulations over North American on short time scales. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Ocean- ography Reference Series 86-17. Cayan, D. 1998. Tribute to Jerome Namias: The Scripps era. Namias Symposium on the Status and Prospects for Climate Prediction. 78th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix, Ariz. d'Ursin, P., and J. O. Roads. 1988. Jerome Namias: The world and I. Time Magazine Publications. Eliassen, A. 1986. A method pioneered by Jerome Namias: Isen- tropic analysis and its aftergrowth. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Se- ries 86-17. Fultz, D. 1986. Residence times and other time scales associated with Norwegian air mass ideas. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17. Gilman, D. L. 1986. Expressing uncertainty in long-range forecasts. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17. Ghil, M. 1988. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 69:418-19.

OCR for page 242
264 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS Haney, R. L. 1986. Some SST anomalies I have known, thanks to T. Namias. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. T. O. Roads. Scripps Insti- tution of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17. Hecht, A. D. 1986. Certificate of achievement. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. T. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Refer- ence Series 86-17. Lorenz, E. N. 1986. The index cycle is alive and well. Namias Sym- posium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanogra- phy Reference Series 86-17. Newton, C. 1986. Global circulation to frontal scale implications of the confluence theory of the high tropospheric jet stream. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. T. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Ocean- ography Reference Series 86-17. Rasmusson, E. 1998. Tribute to Jerome Namias: The pioneering years. Namias Symposium on the Status and Prospects for Cli- mate Prediction. 78th annual meeting of the American Meteoro- logical Society, Phoenix, Ariz. Smagorinsky, T. 1986. The long-range eye of Terry Namias. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. T. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Ocean- ography Reference Series 86-17. Taba, H. 1988. The Bulletin interviews Dr. Jerome Namias. WMO Bull. 37:156-69. van Loon, H. 1986. The characteristic of sea level pressure and sea surface temperature during the development of a warm event in the southern oscillations. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17. Walsh, T. 1986. Surface-atmosphere interactions over the continents: The Namias influence. Namias Symposium, 1986, ed. J. O. Roads. Scripps Institution of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17.

OCR for page 242
1 S E L E C T E D JEROME NAMIAS B I B L I O G RAP H Y 1934 265 Structure of a wedge of continental polar air determined from Serological observations. MIT course. Professional notes no. 6. Subsidence within the atmosphere. Harvard Meteorological Stud- ies. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. 1936 An introduction to the study of air mass analysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. vol. 17:1-84. Structure and maintenance of dry-type moisture discontinuities not developed by subsidence. Mon. Weather Rev. 64:351-58. 1938 Thunderstorm forecasting with the aid of isentropic charts. Bull. Am.Meteorol.Soc.19~1~:1-14. 1939 With C.-G. Rossby and others. Relation between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation of the atmosphere and the dis- placement of the semi-permanent centers of action. 7. Mar. Res. 2:38-55. 1941 With H. C. Willett and R. A. Allen. Report of the five-day forecast- ing procedure, verification and research as conducted between July 1940 and August 1941. Papers in Physical Oceanography and Meteorology. MIT and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution IX(1) :1-88. 1947 Extended forecasting by mean circulation methods. Extended Fore- cast Section, U.S. Weather Bureau, pp. 1-89. 1949 With P. F. Clapp. Confluence theory of the high tropospheric jet stream. 7. Meteorol. 6:330-36.

OCR for page 242
266 BIOGRAPHICAL MEMOIRS 1950 The index cycle and its role in the general circulation. 7. Meteorol. 7~2) :130-39. 1953 Thirty-day forecasting: A review of a ten-year experiment. Meteoro- logical Monograph No. 2. American Meteorological Society. 1955 Some empirical aspects of drought with special reference to the summers of 1952-54 over the United States. Mon. Weather Rev. 83: 199-205. 1959 Recent seasonal interactions between North Pacific waters and the overlying atmospheric circulation. 7. Geophys. Res. 64:631-46. 1968 tong-range weather forecasting: History, current status and out- look. Bull Am. Meteorol. Soc. 49:438-70. 1970 With B. M. Born. Temporal coherence in North Pacific sea-surface temperature patterns. 7. Geophys. Res. 75:5952-55. 1972 Space scales of sea-surface temperature patterns and their causes. Fish. Bull. 70:611-17. 1975 Northern Hemisphere seasonal sea level pressure and anomaly charts, 1947-1974. In CalCOFI Atlas 22, eds. A. Fleminger and J. Wyllie. La Jolla, Calif.: Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 243 pp. The contributions of J. Bjerknes to air-sea interaction. In Selected Papers of facob Aall Bonnevie Bjerknes, ed. M. G. Wurtele, pp. 16-18. North Hollywood, Calif.: Western Periodical Co. 1976 With R. R. Dickson. North American i influences on the circulation

OCR for page 242
1 JEROME NAMIAS 267 and climate of the North Atlantic sector. Mon. Weather Rev. 104:1255- 65. Negative ocean feedback systems over the North Pacific in the tran- sition from warm to cold seasons. Mon. Weather Rev. 104:1107-21. Some statistical synoptic characteristics associated with E1 Nino. 7. Phys. Oceanogr. 6:130-38. 1978 Multiple causes of the North American abnormal winter 1976-1977. Mon. Weather Rev. 106:279-95. 1979 Northern Hemisphere seasonal 700-mb height and anomaly charts, 1947-79, and associated North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. In CalCOFI Atlas 27, ed. A. Fleminger. La Tolla, Calif.: Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 275 pp. 1981 Teleconnections of 700-mb height anomalies for the Northern Hemi- sphere. In CalCOFI Atlas 29, ed. A. Fleminger. La Tolla, Calif.: Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 265 pp. 1982 With A. V. Douglas and D. Cayan. Large-scale changes in North Pacific and North American weather patterns in recent decades. Mon. Weather Rev. 1 10:1851 -62. 1983 The history of polar front and air mass concepts in the United States An eyewitness account. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 64:734-55. 1984 With D. Cayan. E1 Nino: Implications for forecasting. Oceanus 27:41- 47. Short Period Climatic Variations. Collected Works of I. Namias, vols. I-IV. San Diego: UCSD Press. 1986 Autobiography. Namias Symposium, ed. T. O. Roads. Scripps Institu- tion of Oceanography Reference Series 86-17.