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OCR for page 3
/ Youth Unemployment
in a Changing Economy
OVERVIEW
Unemployment among young Americans is currently a serious and complex
problem. Some of the nearly 3 million people ages 16-21 who could not find
full-time or part-time jobs in 1982 are victims of the ailing U.S. economy.
Presumably some of them will be able to get and hold jobs once the current
recession has eased. Some of them are simply engaged in looking for jobs
and will find them in time. Others may be the victims of various social
conditions structural changes in the economy; lingering discrimination on
the basis of racial or ethnic background, gender, or age; or an education
system that has not kept pace with technological change or has not taught all
students basic educational or occupational skills. These latter young peo-
ple, many of whom are high-school dropouts, are unemployed and
perhaps unemployable because they lack the basic skills, the occupational
skills, or the attitudes necessary in the workplace. They represent a major
failing of the education system, even though some may have passed
"successfully" through that system. It is this system, in particular vocation-
al education in the public high schools, that is the focus of this report.
Our goal in this report is to recommend ways in which the education
system, particularly the public vocational education system, can be im-
proved in order to enhance the employability of its graduates. We recom-
mend strengthening the ties between vocational education and employers as
a means of improving vocational education programs. We outline in-
stitutional changes that will be required of the vocational education system
before effective collaborative efforts with business and industry can be
made. We believe also that education and training constitute a lifelong
3
OCR for page 4
4
EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
endeavor to keep every person's knowledge and skills up-to-date and that
education and employment policies should be made consistent with that
view. Because of the rapid rate of technological change in our society, it is
no longer practical or feasible to consider that people receive all the training
they will need throughout their careers while they are young and in school.
We begin by presenting the economic context of the study. In this first
chapter we discuss structural changes in the U. S. economy, changes in the
nature of jobs, and changes in the skills required in jobs that affect people's
employment prospects. We then narrow the scope of the discussion to youth
unemployment, describing its nature and extent and putting it in the context
of national economic conditions. We highlight the education implications
of these different types of employment conditions. We try to portray the
complexity and severity of the problem by examining employment ex-
periences for different groups of young people, their educational back-
grounds, the types of work they are seeking, and other relevant social
factors. Clearly, unemployment has vastly different meanings for different
groups of young people. For example, a 17-year-old high-school student
living with his or her middle-class parents may be looking for a part-timejob
principally to earn extra spending money. In contrast, unemployment
would have much more serious implications for a 19-year-old male high-
school dropout trying to support his family and himself or for a 20-year-old
divorced mother trying to support her child and herself.
We go on to describe the current vocational education system in Chapter
2, highlighting the diversity of offerings and the variable quality of its
programs. We describe the institutional and administrative arrangements
typical of vocational education programs. Working from recent evaluative
studies, we describe those programs that tend to expand and improve the
education and employment prospects of their graduates. We observe that
good vocational education programs are often distinguished by their close
ties with business, a theme that is developed more fully in Chapter 3. We
also analyze problems relating to limited access to high-quality programs
available to the students most in need of education and employment oppor-
tunities.
In Chapter 3 we discuss collaborative ventures involving vocational
education, private-sector employers, labor unions, and community-based
organizations. Collaboration is not a novel idea; such efforts have been
made for years, but they could be expanded considerably to improve the
education and the employability of the students. We outline some economic
development strategies involving education and training that are intended to
accommodate technological changes and restore health to the economies of
depressed areas. Such strategies are characterized by collaboration between
vocational education programs and private-sector employers.
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Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
The committee then presents its conclusions regarding the strengths and
weaknesses of the vocational education system and its diverse programs in
Chapter 4. We present our argument for using an improved system of
vocational education as an available, practical, and effective means of
combating the employment problems of many American young people. We
present recommendations for strengthening vocational education so that it,
in turn, can help young Americans and, ultimately, the economy. We argue
that links between school and work should be strengthened because they
will help improve the quality and increase the relevance of the training that
vocational education students receive. We describe features of the many
forms of collaborative efforts that appear to be necessary for success, and
we outline measures designed to reduce rigidities within the vocational
education system so that collaborative efforts can occur without impedi-
ment. We emphasize our belief in the value of supervised work experience
for vocational education students by describing the important features of
beneficial arrangements, recommending expanded opportunities for stu-
dents to work, and recommending some modifications in work experience
programs.
We present two sets of recommendations for improving vocational edu-
cation, especially in high schools. The first concerns teachers their
certification, their training (both pre-service and in-service), their pay
scales, and the use of part-time teachers. The second deals with the financ-
ing of vocational education funding formulas, pooling equipment, and
funding for program improvement. We conclude by suggesting ex-
perimental approaches to improve the access of disadvantaged students to
high-quality vocational education programs.
5
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY
Fundamental changes in the American economy over the last 40 years in
the types of goods manufactured here, in the ways in which those goods are
produced, in the types of services that are rendered, in the balance between
the manufacturing and service sectors, in the position of the United States in
the world economy, and in the responses of the private sector to technologi-
cal innovation have had dramatic effects on the nature of jobs. Many
education and training programs have not kept pace with these structural
changes and with technological advances affecting large numbers of
occupations.
The Shift from Manufacturing to Service Jobs
Discussion about unemployment currently turns rather quickly to the topic
of changes in the types of jobs in the American economy the widely
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6
EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
discussed shift from manufacturing to service jobs. Manufacturing is gener-
ally taken to include the production of goods (everything from paper clips,
bakery goods, and automobiles to industrial equipment) as well as the
processing of materials (petroleum products, metals, plastics, and chemi-
cals, for example). The service sector includes such a diversity of jobs that
some economists discourage grouping them together under the term service
sector because of its illusion of uniformity (see Stanback et al., 19811. One
classification scheme, used by the Committee on National Urban Policy
(Hanson, 1983), divides the service sector into the following categories:
distributive services, the complex of corporate activities and producer
services (such as finance, insurance, real estate), nonprofit services (health
and education), retail services, consumer services (for example, hotels,
auto repair, amusements), and government and government enterprises.
Furthermore, as we shall see, not all jobs in the manufacturing sector are
directly involved in the production process; some of them are very similar to
jobs in the service sector.
The proportion of jobs in the manufacturing sector has been declining
since the end of World War II, while the proportion in the service sector has
been increasing (Table 11. In 1940, 34 percent of nonagricultural workers
were engaged in manufacturing. This proportion decreased to 22 percent in
1980. Between 1940 and 1980 employment in the service sector rose from
59 percent to 72 percent of all those employed outside agriculture. From
Table 1 we can calculate that approximately 84 percent of all new jobs
introduced into the economy between 1940 and 1980 were in the service
sector.
Changes in union membership over time give further testimony to these
economic shifts. The National Commission for Employment Policy ~ 1982)
noted that in 1960 the United Auto Workers and the United Steelworkers of
America were the two largest unions in the AFL-CIO. By 1980 the two
largest unions were the United Food and Commercial Workers and the
American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees.
Compared with the period before World War II, manufacturing indus-
tries currently employ proportionately fewer workers to actually make
products, while more workers are involved in invention, design, manage-
ment, and sales. And the changes continue, many say at an accelerating
rate. Some jobs currently filled by workers will be performed by robots, and
other jobs will involve working with the robots. An increasing proportion of
manufacturing jobs require some education or training, and there are fewer
jobs for low-skilled manual laborers (Hanson, 19831. Some jobs now
require more knowledge, while others are being broken into discrete,
routine components that require little thought and even less imagination.
OCR for page 7
Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
TABLE 1 Percentage Distribution of Employees on Nonagricultural
Payrolls, by Industry Division, 1940-1980
7
Industry Division19401950196019701980
Total100100100100100
(32,361)(45,197)(54,189)(70,880)(90,406)
Goods-producing4141373328
(13,221)(18,506)(20,434)(23,578)(25,658)
Mining32111
(925)(901)(712)(623)(1,027)
Construction45555
(1,311)(2,364)(2,926)(3,588)(4,346)
Manufacturing3434312722
(10,985)(15,241)(16,796)(19,367)(20,285)
Service-producing5959626772
(19,140)(26,691)(33,755)(47,302)(67,748)
Transportation and99766
public utilities(3,038)(4,034)(4,004)(4,515)(5,146)
Wholesale and2121212122
retail trade(6,750)(9,386)(11,391)(14,040)(20,310)
Finance, insurance,54556
real estate(1,485)(1,888)(2,629)(3,645)(5,160)
Services1112141620
(3,665)(5,357)(7,378)(11,548)(17,890)
Government1313151818
(4,202)(6,026)(8,353)(12,554)(16,241)
Federal34443
(996)(1,928)(2,270)(2,731)(2,866)
State and local109111415
(3,206)(4,098)(6,083)(9,823)(13,375)
NOTE: Numbers in parentheses represent thousands.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1983, Employment and Earnings 30(3) March:
Table B-1.
There is diversity and change in the service sector as well. Some jobs
require considerable knowledge or education, but others do not. The more
knowledge-intensive jobs, having higher status, offer good incomes and
opportunities for advancement. Stanback et al. ( 1981 ) present an analysis of
OCR for page 8
8
EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
data from the 1970 census showing that in general those employed in
service jobs have higher education levels than those working in manufactur-
ing (Table 24. Of course in some service jobs, such as cleaning and
maintenance of dwellings and other buildings, education levels are roughly
the same as or lower than levels in manufacturing jobs. They conclude that
most young people today enter the labor market through jobs in retailing and
consumer services rather than through jobs in farming or manufacturing, as
they did before World War II. Since these service jobs generally require
more education than those in manufacturing, we conclude that structural
shifts in the economy will probably require, on the average, more rather
than less education of employees than in the past.
It is not clear that young people need a great deal of education and training
for the jobs they will hold while they are young. According to analysis of the
spring 1981 survey of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) of Youth
Labor Market Experience (Bows, 1983), about 28 percent of the jobs held
by people ages 16-21 required only an elementary-school education. Just
over half required less than a high-school diploma, about 14 percent
required a diploma, and 7 percent required some college education.
According to the NLS, almost half the jobs held by people ages 16-21
required no more training than a short demonstration, 22 percent required
less than 30 days of on-thejob training, and another 19 percent demanded
no more than three months of training. This means that 87 percent of the
jobs required less than 3 months of training.
It is not safe to conclude from these data, however, that young people do
not need or would not benefit from more education and training. Given the
aspirations of most people to advance in their careers and given the structur-
al changes in the economy affecting the skills required in jobs, it may well
be that young people need better education and training to prepare for their
careers. The jobs they hold as teenagers or young adults are likely to require
less education and training than the jobs they will hold later.
TABLE 2 Percentage Distribution of Employed People, by
Employment Sector and Number of Years of Education
Years of Years of
Elementary and Years of Graduate
Secondary School College Work
Sector 0-8 9-12 1-2 3-4 1-2
Manufacturing 28.8 57.7 3.0 6.0 4.0
Services 15.1 45.6 10.5 15.3 13.6
SOURCE: Stanback et al. (1981: Table 4.9). Reprinted by permission.
OCR for page 9
Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
9
Technological Changes in the Workplace
Virtually no part of the U.S. economy has been untouched by technological
advances. One indication of the pervasiveness of technological change is
the September 1982 issue of Scientific American, which is devoted entirely
to the mechanization of work. Among other topics, the articles discussed
the mechanization of agriculture, mining, design and manufacturing, com-
merce, and office work. Vocational education programs are available in all
of these areas. The importance of technological innovation for vocational
education programs can scarcely be overestimated.
While all agree that the nature of jobs changes as a result of technological
innovation, there seems to be little agreement among analysts regarding the
likely nature of those changes over the next 20 years or so and their effects
on the education and training required for the new or altered jobs. On one
side are those who argue that the adoption of technological innovations will
increase the skill levels required for jobs (Ayres and Miller, 19811. They
argue that the workers so displaced will be the lower-skilled workers and
that the newly created jobs will require more sophisticated technical train-
ing or managerial or other typically white-collar skills. (Whether the work-
ers who are displaced can be retrained for the new jobs that would presum-
ably be created is another question.) On the other side are those who believe
that the widespread use of computerized systems will routinize jobs and
increase the demand for low-skilled workers (see Levin and Rumberger,
1983; Vedder, 19821. Levin and Rumberger note that, while the fastest
growth may be in computer-related occupations, the figures on percentage
growth may be misleading because such jobs account for a very small
proportion of the total work force. They cite figures from the U. S. Depart-
ment of Labor projecting that 150,000 new jobs for computer programmers
would be created in the 1980s; however, the estimate for janitors, nurse's
aides, and orderlies is 1.3 million new jobs. They argue further that most of
the jobs altered by computers will require only the most rudimentary of
skills and certainly no high level of competence with computers. As
computers become more sophisticated, those who use them can be less
sophisticated.
The potentially disruptive effects of the automation of manufacturing on
workers has been aptly described by the National Commission for Employ-
ment Policy ~ 1982:71:
Workers may be threatened in the short term by loss of their jobs due to rapid
automation of manufacturing plants and in the long term by the possible crippling of
whole industries if manufacturers fail to automate rapidly enough or otherwise
change their production techniques or wage costs to meet foreign competition. That
OCR for page 10
10
EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
the nation's unemployment rate exceeded 10 percent for the first time in 4 decades
in September 1982, reflects not only the current recession, but also the dis-
appearance of thousands of jobs in traditional "smokestack industries" such as iron,
rubber, and steel, as well as in automobile manufacturing and other basic industries.
Many workers in these industries who previously enjoyed both security and high
salaries have consequently been left without work and often without applicable
skills to compete in an emerging high-technology economy [emphasis added).
The potential effects of technological change on jobs are much more
complex and pervasive than they may at first appear. The work of assembly-
line employees, product designers, inventory clerks, managers, and execu-
tives can be revolutionized. Gunn (1982) notes that adopting new methods
in one part of the manufacturing process has implications for other parts and
for the cost and efficiency of the entire process. For example, using
computers to facilitate the design of products is estimated to improve
productivity in the drafting room by a factor of three or more. In addition, it
results in higher-quality components that can be assembled faster and more
easily and that ultimately result in a better product.
The increasing use of robots in industry raises concerns about the dis-
placement of workers and the reshaping of training programs. Industrial
robots are not the humanlike androids seen in science fiction movies.
Instead, they are machine tools that can be programmed to move parts or
tools through a specified series of motions. Some robots can be reprogram-
med to perform different tasks without changing their hardware. Robots are
best used in highly structured manufacturing situations in which there is
virtually no variability or need for making decisions. The most common
current applications include spot welding, spray painting, and loading and
unloading metal cutting or forming machines, all of which have historically
been taught in trade and industrial programs in vocational education.
Robots are valued because of their predictability, reliability, and relative
insensitivity to unpleasant environments. One of their major disadvantages
is that, unlike humans, they are unable to react to unexpected situations or
changes in their routines or environments, and they do not learn from past
experience. Although robots are available that have rudimentary "senses"
of sight and touch and that "learn" in a limited way, they are not yet
commonly used in industry.
The Robotics Institute of Carnegie-Mellon University surveyed the
members of the Robot Institute of America (robot users and producers)
regarding their use of robots in various occupations, almost all in
metalworking (Ayres and Miller, 19811. The results showed that robots are
used most in nine occupations, which currently employ 3 million workers.
A predicted half million of these workers could potentially be replaced by
the type of robots currently used in industry. The most severely affected
OCR for page 11
Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
11
would be production workers engaged in welding, painting, and operating
machine tools. One million more could possibly be replaced with the more
sophisticated sensing robots. The researchers estimate that as many as 3
million workers in the areas of assembling, packaging, grinding, electro-
plating, and inspecting could potentially be replaced by sensing robots but
that this displacement would take at least 20 years. They also note that six
metalworking occupational categories for which vocational education
offers training are likely to be seriously affected by robotization. These six
categories accounted for approximately 3 percent of all vocational educa-
tion enrollments in 1978 (almost a half million students).
While some believe that the widespread use of robots will lead to
unemployment, others are not convinced and focus instead on the retraining
of workers displaced by robots. As noted in a staff report on robotics and the
economy prepared for the Joint Economic Committee of the U. S. Congress,
"the challenge to policymakers due to increased use of robots is not unem-
ployment but retraining" (Vedder, 1982:21. Vedder argues that robots will
not increase unemployment but will instead improve productivity and
thereby create more jobs. He reasons that the people who will be displaced
by robots can be retrained to manage them or repair them or to do other
production jobs that cannot be accomplished by robots.
Others see potentially far-reaching and long-term benefits of the in-
creased automation of American industry (National Commission for Em-
ployment Policy, 19821. If manufacturers can decrease the price of goods
by increasing the efficiency of production, the demand for such products
could actually increase employment. (But the skill requirements of the new
jobs, of course, would differ from those of the old.) If robots assume the
most difficult and dangerous jobs, working conditions for people could be
improved. In addition, automation could help to restore America's in-
dustrial base.
Regardless of which analysis one prefers, there are education and train-
ing implications for educators and students as well as the people currently
employed in affected industries. Clearly, educators should maintain close
contact with employers who use or are likely to begin using robots to
determine the training implications for their programs.
Changes in the ways in which information is processed are also affecting
a large portion of jobs in the U. S. economy. The National Commission for
Employment Policy (1982) cited one estimate of the pervasiveness of
telecommunication and computer technologies on occupations: approxi-
mately 55 percent of all U.S. workers in 1980 were employed in informa-
tion-related occupations generating, storing, transmitting, or manipulat-
ing data. The effects of changes in information processing on jobs and their
skill requirements are complex and changing. For example, file and billing
OCR for page 12
12 EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
clerks and operators of older office machines are finding themselves with
obsolete skills, while computer programmers and installers of cable televi-
sion lines are in high demand. Yet not all computer-related jobs are increas-
ing in number. As computerized equipment becomes more sophisticated,
some of the earliest computer-related jobs, such as keypunching, are being
phased out.
Some analysts view these technological changes with great optimism,
both for specific geographic areas and for the health of the entire U.S.
economy. A report on economic trends in New York City (Design for
Academic Progress for the 80's Task Force #5, no date) expresses the view
that jobs created by the "information revolution" can help revitalize the
economy of that city. The jobs that have expanded in the last decade or so in
New York City have been related to the creation, processing, and distribu-
tion of information the media, telecommunications, printing, publishing,
banking, insurance, the stock market, and others. The report notes that,
although New York has lost many of its routine manufacturing jobs to
overseas locations such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, the knowledge-
intensive components of those industries-managing, design, marketing,
and clerical work have remained in New York. Thus, the nature of the
jobs in the city has changed and has resulted in a change in the skills needed
from employees. The need for unskilled workers has been reduced and that
for technically skilled workers has increased, posing a challenge to the
education system to train residents to fill the newly created jobs.
In order to learn about current practices in education and training relating
to automation in manufacturing, the Office of Technology Assessment
conducted a survey in 1982 of firms likely to use programmable automation
in manufacturing (those making electric and electronics equipment, in-
dustrial machinery, and transportation equipment); producers of pro-
grammable automation equipment and systems; and educators and others
involved in instruction, including labor unions. Results of the survey are
reported in a technical memorandum (Office of Technology Assessment,
1983~. About 40 percent of the manufacturing firms use programmable
automation and about 22 percent sponsor or conduct training in the new
technologies. Of those who do not offer training, only about 18 percent plan
to do so in the future. This figure, the report notes, seems surprisingly low,
given that virtually all the respondents manufacturers and those involved
in education or training felt that industries should bear the cost of training
employees to work with the new technologies. This finding could indicate
that, while industries are reluctant to conduct their own programs, they are
willing to pay for training conducted by others. Alternatively, it could mean
that the changes in jobs caused by automation are not yet sufficient to
warrant establishing formal training programs.
OCR for page 13
Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE 1980S
13
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in 1982 the annual
average unemployment rate for the country as a whole was 9.7 percent, and
the rate for people ages 16- 19 was 23.2 percent. The unemployment rate for
blacks in that age bracket reached a staggering 48.0 percent and that for
people of Hispanic origin was 29.9 percent (see Table 31. These 1982
figures represent a seasonal adjustment of the monthly data gathered in the
Current Population Survey of households across the United States.
Table 4 gives the 1982 BLS figures for people ages 16-21, showing a
slightly different picture. The unemployment rate for the entire civilian
labor force for that age group is 20.5 percent, while that for blacks and
others is 38.5 percent. The figures are lower than those cited above because
people ages 20 and 21 as a group are unemployed less often than those ages
16-19. Of those ages 16-21 who report that their major activity is going to
school, almost 24 percent are unemployed. The corresponding figure for
blacks and others is 47.3 percent. Of those unemployed while in school,
most are looking for part-time work-about 85 percent of whites and about
74 percent of blacks and others. While it is undoubtedly true that many
students who are looking for work are doing so primarily so they can have
more spending money, there are also some who need the money to support
themselves or their families for whom the lack of a part-time job is quite
serious.
TABLE 3 Annual Unemployment Rates by Gender, Age, and Race or
Ethnic Origin, 1981 and 1982 (Household Data)
Total White Black
Hispanic
Total, age 16 and over
1981 7.6 6.7 15.6 10.4
1982 9.7 8.6 18.9 13.8
Ages 16-19
1981 19.6 17.3 41.4 24.0
1982 23.2 20.4 48.0 29.9
Males, ages 16-19
1981 20.1 17.9 40.7 24.3
1982 24.4 21.7 48.9 31.2
Females, ages 16- 19
1981 19.0 16.6 42.2 23.5
1982 21.9 19.0 47.1 28.2
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1983, Employment and Earnings 30(1) January:
Table 51.
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14
EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
TABLE 4 Employment Status of the Noninstitutionalized Population
Ages 16-21, Annual Averages for 1982 (Numbers in Thousands)
Black
TotalWhiteand Other
Total noninstitutionalized
population24,69020,5204,170
Total labor force15,24013,2332,007
Percent of population61.764.548.1
Civilian labor force14,54712,7061,841
Employed11,56110,4291,132
Agriculture55752433
Nonagricultural industries11,0059,9051,100
Unemployed2,9862,227709
Looking for full-time work2,0181,499519
Looking for part-time work968778190
Percent of labor force20.517.938.5
Not in labor force9,4507,2872,163
Major activity going to school
Civilian labor force3,4763,100376
Employed2,6462,448198
Agriculture1191154
Nonagr~culture industries2,5272,333194
Unemployed830652178
Looking for full-time work1429646
Looking for part-time work688556132
Percent of labor force23.921.047.3
Not in labor force6,3974,9731,432
Major activity other
Civilian labor force11,0719,6071,465
Employed8,9157,981934
Agriculture43740929
Nonagricultural industries8,4787,573905
Unemployed2,1561,625531
Looking for full-time work1,8761,403473
Looking for part-time work28022258
Percent of labor force19.516.936.2
Not in labor force3,0532,313740
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1983, Employment and Earnings 30(1) January:
Table 7.
The BLS unemployment figures cited above, which are the ones most
often seen in the media, are calculated by dividing the number of unem-
ployed individuals by the number in the labor force-that is, those either
working or looking for work. Using instead ratios calculated by dividing the
number of employed people by the total population for a given group gives a
rather different picture, because of differences in the proportion of people in
OCR for page 15
Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
15
any group who are in the labor force. Table 5 gives employment/population
ratios by age and race for 1981 and 1982. In all groups there are at least
modest decreases in the employment ratios between 1981 and 1982. All
people ages 16-19 are employed at about 60 percent the rate for the
population as a whole, at least in part because the teenagers are in school.
The teenagers may lack the skills for available jobs or they may not be able
to work the hours required because of conflicts with school schedules. The
employment/population ratio for black and other teenagers ages 16-19 is
about half that for whites in the same age group. If we focused instead on
unemployed people and calculated unemployment/population ratios, we
would find that the difference between white teenagers and black and other
teenagers is markedly smaller than that difference in the BLS unemploy-
ment rates cited above. These differences are attenuated by the differences
in the proportions of the two groups that are in the labor force: proportion-
ately fewer blacks and others ages 16-19 are either working or looking for
work.
Analysis of a different data set, the spring 1981 survey of the National
Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) of Youth Labor Market Experience, enriches
our picture of youth unemployment. This section draws on a paper prepared
for the committee by Michael E. Borus (19831. Selected tables from this
paper are presented in Appendix A.
The unemployment rate for this group, composed of people ages 16-21 at
the time of the interview, was 20 percent, a slightly higher rate than that
found for the same time period in the Current Population Survey by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure from the NLS implies that about 3.5
million young people ages 16-21 were unemployed in spring 1981. Al-
though the unemployment rate for young men was generally higher than
that for young women, some groups of young women have especially high
TABLE 5 Employment/Population Ratios by Age and Race for 1981
and 1982 (Household Data)
1981 1982
Total
Total, ages 16-19
White, ages 16-19
Black and other, ages 16-19
.70 .67
.44 .41
.48 .45
.23 .21
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1983, Employment and Earnings 30(1 ) January: Table
2 and Table 6.
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16
EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
unemployment rates: blacks; high-school dropouts; those with less than a
high-school education; those who were married, divorced, or separated;
those with children in the household; and those in the Northeast. Borus also
found that the rate of unemployment declines as the young people grow
older: 16-year-olds have a 31 percent unemployment rate, compared with a
13 percent rate for 21-year-olds.
Borus's analysis revealed a direct relationship between unemployment
rates and lack of schooling, indicating that young people who drop out of
high school have greater difficulty finding jobs than do their peers who
graduate. High-school dropouts have extremely high unemployment
rates-37 percent for female dropouts and 29 percent for male dropouts.
They are often seen as lacking the skills, discipline, and motivation neces-
sary to hold jobs. The unemployment rates for high-school students are only
slightly lower-26 percent for females and 29 percent for males. Presum-
ably students have difficulty getting jobs, in part because the hours they can
work are constrained by their schooling and study.
The less education young people have, the more trouble they have in the
labor market. The unemployment rate for those ages 16-21 with less than
one year of high school was 40 percent in the NLS sample; the rate for those
who had not finished high school was 28 percent; and it was 15 percent for
high-school graduates. Those who had completed college (albeit a very
small group of those ages 16-21) was only 3 percent. These findings are
consistent with those of Meyer and Wise (1982a, 1982b) and Ellwood and
Wise (19831.
Unemployment rates for minority young people in the spring 1981 NLS
sample are higher than those for whites. The rate for blacks was 37 percent;
for Hispanics, 24 percent; and for whites, 18 percent. Blacks constituted 23
percent of the unemployed but only 14 percent of the population of those
ages 16-21.
As might be expected, youth unemployment rates are generally higher in
localities with higher unemployment rates for the population as a whole and
lower in areas with lower overall unemployment. Borus's analysis fails to
support the commonly held view, however, that youth unemployment is
highest in inner cities. Borus found that the youth unemployment rates in
central cities of standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) are approx-
imately the same as the rates in the areas of SMSAs outside the central
cities. As we shall see below, however, the central cities have a higher
percentage of hard-core unemployed young people.
Borus defined the hard-core unemployed as those who were out of
school, who live either on their own or in a household in which the family
income is below the poverty level, and who have been looking for work for
10 or more weeks. About 9 percent of the unemployed meet this definition.
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Youth Unemploymerlt in a Changing Economy
17
There were about as many men as women, but there were few 16- or
17-year-olds. There were about equal numbers of people ages 18, 19, 20,
and 21 . The rates did not vary greatly by race or ethnic background. About
21 percent of those with no education past the eighth grade were classified
as hard-core unemployed, compared with 5 percent of those with some
high-school education (presumably many of whom were still in school),
and 14 percent of those who had graduated from high school. Of those
unemployed, 13 percent in the central city of an SMSA were hard-core
unemployed, compared with 6 percent of those in an SMSA but not in the
central city.
What factors tend to distinguish discouraged workers those no longer
looking for work presumably because they believe no jobs are available-
from the young people who are looking for work? In Borus's analysis, more
discouraged workers were dropouts and fewer were high-school graduates.
Proportionately more lived in the South, in rural areas, or outside SMSAs.
They tended to be concentrated in areas with high unemployment rates for
the population as a whole.
The NLS sample includes questions of the young people regarding their
reasons for looking for work, the types of jobs they sought, the lowest wage
they would accept, and their perceptions of barriers to employment. About
half the young people said they were looking for work because they needed
money. An additional 20 percent had either lost or quit their previous job.
Only about 7 percent said they needed to support themselves or help with
family expenses.
Not quite half the young people who were unemployed were looking for
full-time jobs. They tended to be older and not in school.
The NLS queried young people about their perceptions regarding the
main reasons for their own unemployment or difficulties in getting a good
job. About 45 percent of the respondents said they had been affected by age
discrimination, the percentages understandably declining as the age of the
respondents increased. High-school dropouts who were 16 or 17 years old
perceived age discrimination more frequently than other groups. Sex dis-
crimination was cited by 14 percent of the young women and 5 percent of
the men. About 20 percent of the blacks and Hispanics felt that they had
suffered racial or ethnic discrimination.
Lack of transportation was the most frequently mentioned structural
barrier to employment, cited by 30 percent of the young people. Lack of
experience was cited by 14 percent of the sample. Interestingly, lack of
experience became a more commonly cited problem for the older respon-
dents. Lack of education was said to be a problem by 6 percent of the sample
overall and by 21 percent of the high-school dropouts.
In general, Borus's analysis of the NLS data on youth unemployment
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EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
reveals that unemployment among Americans ages 16-21 is concentrated
among certain groups. The groups with the highest unemployment rates
include 16- and 1 7-year-olds, blacks, Hispanics, and high-school dropouts.
The jobs typically held by young people require little education or specific
training. One cannot conclude from this analysis, however, that education
and training are unimportant factors in youth unemployment. Unemploy-
ment rates tended to drop with increasing educational attainment, suggest-
ing that education and training are important in helping young people
prepare for jobs.
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
Finding jobs may be difficult for young people for a variety of reasons. They
may lack basic skills (such as facility with spoken and written English, with
reasoning, and with basic mathematical computations). They may lack the
general or specific skills demanded in certain jobs. They may lack appropri-
ate work habits and attitudes. And they may not have contacts with employ-
ers or know how to locate suitable jobs and apply for them. Some young
people may be handicapped by deficits in one or another of these areas, and
others may be deficient in several or all of them.
To read with understanding, to write clearly, to speak and listen effec-
tively, and to perform basic mathematical computations are abilities gener-
ally considered essential to adequate performance in many if not most jobs
today. These same abilities are necessary to satisfactory performance in
most postsecondary education programs, which young people may choose
in lieu of employment or as a means to better jobs. While most would agree
that the ability to interact knowledgeably with computers is an important
communication or computation skill, whether it is a basic skill is open to
debate. Certainly, familiarity with computers is an asset in many education-
al and employment settings, but it is far from a universal requirement for
either education or employment in the early 1980s.
Virtually all agree that these basic skills should be taught to students in
elementary and secondary schools and that a high-school diploma should
signify competence in these skills (see, for example, the report of the
National Commission on Excellence in Education, 1983, and the report of
the Twentieth Century Fund, 1983~. For many entry-level jobs, employers
require a high-school diploma or a demonstration of competence in basic
skills. Some jobs inarguably require those skills; in other cases, a high-
school diploma may be a proxy for other attributes that employers want,
such as reliability, ability to get along with coworkers, or willingness to
accept the authority of a supervisor (Corman, 19801. Regardless of the
reasons for these requirements or their validity, this committee is concerned
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Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
19
that many young people lack the basic skills so often required in entry-level
jobs. We are not alone in our concern. A report of the Task Force on
Education for Economic Growth (1983) concludes that the poor quality of
American education its inadequate job of preparing students for work-
threatens this country's economy.
Schools face immense problems in trying to keep their education
programs general, vocational, or academic-current at the elementary,
secondary, and postsecondary levels. In this era of rapid technological
change and its similarly rapid diffusion into virtually all aspects of life, it
has been argued that the skills that constitute basic competence or functional
literacy change. Not only have new occupations opened up and others
declined markedly, but also many jobs that have existed for decades have
changed in nature. In an increasing number of jobs, employees must be able
to interact with computers on at least a rudimentary level. While not
everyone must be able to program a computer, knowing how to interact with
them (or with those who program them) is important in an increasing
number of occupations. For example, secretaries who use word processors
work most effectively and efficiently if they understand at least a little about
how the central processing unit of the system works and "reasons"; real
proficiency with such systems involves more than the rote following of
rules in a users' handbook. Parallel statements could be made about many
other computer-driven systems, such as industrial robots, computerized
devices for the diagnosis of automotive problems, and computers used in
banking.
The Center for Public Resources (1982) conducted a national survey of
corporate, school, and trade union personnel to measure their perceptions of
the competencies in basic skills needed by employees. The areas of compe-
tence listed in the survey included reading, writing, speaking and listening,
mathematics, science, and reasoning. In general, corporate personnel iden-
tified deficiencies among employees in most job categories listed in the
survey, while school personnel believed that their graduates were adequate-
ly prepared for employment in terms of basic skills. Corporate and union
personnel reported a serious problem regarding mathematics, science, and
speaking and listening skills, which the educators did not perceive. Most
business and union respondents noted that basic skill deficiencies limit the
possibilities of job advancement for employees. Most companies repre-
sented in the survey had not estimated the business costs of these deficien-
cies in their employees but believed them to be high.
The fact that employers think that schools have the responsibility for
teaching basic skills has been documented in a survey sponsored by the
Conference Board (Lusterman, 1977~. While employers may be reluctant to
teach their employees basic skills that is, to provide education that they
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EDUCATION FOR TOMORROW'S JOBS
believe ought to be provided by the public schools-some do so. (Luster-
man reports that about 8 percent of the 610 companies with 500 or more
employees surveyed provide education in basic skills.)
The American Society for Training and Development has estimated that
employers spend about $40 billion a year on education and training pro-
grams for employees; the figure includes fees for instructors, administrative
costs, equipment costs, and employee travel expenses. The Center for
Public Resources (1982) recommended collaboration between educators
and employers to improve the basic skills of students. Such collaboration
would complement collaborative ventures focusing on vocational educa-
tion.
Some employers are increasingly reluctant to hire people directly out of
high school and with no work experience. These employers believe they
have no assurance that young people are responsible and reliable until they
have a sound employment record. They feel that, while some teenagers
have acquired these qualities at home or in school, many have not, and a
high-school diploma offers no reasonable assurance that its holder will
possess basic attitudes essential to good work habits. Supervised work
experience during the school years appears to offer students an escape from
this Catch-22 situation.
Clearly, high-school dropouts or other people with inadequate grounding
in basic skills are handicapped with especially serious problems in seeking
education and training for employment. A few programs the Job Corps
and the Youth Incentive Entitlement Pilot Projects, for example have
been aimed specifically at these groups and are discussed in Chapter 2. The
Job Corps is a federally funded program for disadvantaged young people
who are not employed. As a group, participants tend to have relatively low
levels of education and employment, to be dependent on public welfare
relatively often, and to have relatively high rates of arrest or conviction. In
addition to vocational training, a fundamental component of the Job Corps
program is remediation in basic education. Most participants in the program
leave their homes to live in residential centers in order to remove the
negative influences of their current environments. In addition to education
the participants are offered a comprehensive set of services, including
health care, health education, and counseling. Participants are encouraged
to work toward a general educational development (GED) certificate,
which is recognized by state educational agencies as equivalent to a high-
school diploma. Many analysts credit the success of the program to educa-
tion and training in a supportive environment. While some may think such a
comprehensive program expensive, analyses have shown that the benefits
of the program far exceed the costs under a wide range of assumptions and
estimates (Mallar et al., 19801.
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Youth Unemployment in a Changing Economy
21
In the past, work experience programs for people with a history of
employment difficulties have not had a strong training component. Many of
the programs funded under the Comprehensive Employment and Training
Act (CETA) fit that description. Now, in part because of the success of the
Job Corps, it is generally believed that training is an essential component of
such programs. Most programs today, including those outlined in the Job
Training Partnership Act the successor to CETA-combine training and
work experience in their attempts to increase the employability of their
participants.
As effective as the Jobs Corps, the Youth Incentive Entitlement Pilot
Projects, or similar programs may be, however, it is important to emphasize
that they are means of providing a second chance for people who were not
successful in the regular system of public education. Most would agree that
spending money on a second-chance program is better than leaving people
to be dependent on welfare or to engage in criminal activities. The existence
of successful remediation programs, however, does not decrease the im-
portance of the public schools as the principal institutions to provide
education and training.
CONCLUSION
The fact that approximately 3 million Americans between the ages of 16 and
21 were out of work in 1982 is a matter of grave concern. The lack of
appropriate habits, attitudes, and requisite skills both basic and job-
related-contributes to the problem of securing jobs for both young and
displaced workers. Public schools across the country can help in solving the
problem, but only if they offer strong grounding for all students in basic
skills and up-to-date occupational skills. All students, whether they plan to
work immediately after high-school graduation or not, should be prepared
to reenroll in education or training programs as necessary throughout their
lives in order to update their job skills. Structural changes in the economy,
especially those changes brought about by technological innovation, make
the task of the schools harder, but a close link between schools and
private-sector employers can help educational programs stay current.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
youth unemployment
