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OCR for page 155
Appendix D
Excerpts From an Analysis of the
Expected I'm pact of Various
Electrotechnologies on
Electricity Demand
The following material identifies various electrotechnologies that may
affect electricity use from the present to the year 2000. The material
considers separately certain industrial, commercial, residential, and
transportation applications and comments on their timing and impact.
TERMS USED IN THE TABLES
Particular terms used in the tables are explained below.
Technology: New electrotechnologies or improvements in existing
. .
electrotechnologies that can be expected to make an impact on
electricity consumption.
Market Pull: Time in which technology becomes marketable, requiring no
subsidization or major research and development for market
acceptance. Conceptually, this is the first major upward inflection
on a market penetration "S" curve. Timing of market pull stages is
classified as follows:
Near Term 1984 to 1989
Mid-Term 1990 to 1995
Long Term 1996 to 2000
Distant Future beyond 2000 or never.
*Excerpted by permission from O. Zimmerman and A. Faruqui,
Electrotechnologies--Impact on Electric Demand: Selected Applications
in the Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electric Transportation
Sectors. Palo Alto, California: Electric Power Research Institute.
Internal Report. August 21, 1984.
155
OCR for page 156
156
Intact (Table D-11: Change in electricity consumption for the
technology relative to 1980 consumption, measured in megawatt hours
(M~h), for years 1990 and 2000.
Relative I - act (Table D-11: Increase in a specif ic technology' s
electricity consumption in the year 2000 is classified as follows
Small
Moderate
less than or equal to 1-percent inc rease ove r
1980 consumption
greater than 1-percent and less than 10-percent
increase over 1980 consumption
Significant equal to or greater than 10-percent increase
over 1980 consumption.
I - act {Tables D-2, D-3 , and D-4~: Expected impact on electricity
consumption in years 1990 arid 2000 relative to current consumption
is classif fed as follows:
Small
less than or equal to 1-percent change relative
to existing end use or class load, as
appropriate
greater than 1-percent and less than 10-percent
change relative to existing end use or class
load, as appropriate
Signif icant equal to or greater than 10-percent change
relative to existing end use or class load,
as appropr i ate .
NOTE: Infracts are assessed f rom a net tonal perspective . Some
technologies may have signif icant utility or regional impacts
with only moderate or insignif icant national impacts.
Impact Type (Tables D-2, D-3, and D-4: Classified as follows :
D peak demand af f ec ted more than total ki lowatt hours
E total kilowatt hours affected more than peak demand
B proportional demand/energy impact.
OCR for page 157
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