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TABLE 4.2 Estimated 1984 Population by Age Groups for Regions in Which Developing Countries Predominate (thousands)

 

Age Group (years)

Region

Under 1

1–4

Under 5

5–14

15–59

60 and Over

Total

Latin America

12,736

44,499

57,235

100,220

214,415

25,130

397,000

Africa

23,040

73,762

96,802

141,459

265,451

27,288

531,000

Asia

73,400

270,300

343,700

666,402

1,472,242

179,656

2,662,000

Oceania

187

635

822

1,285

2,620

273

5,000

Total

109,363

389,196

498,559

909,366

1,954,728

232,347

3,595,000

(Percentage)

(3)

(11)

(14)

(25)

(54)

(6)

 

treatment averted by vaccine candidates in the developing world. This does not mean that these techniques cannot be applied in developing regions. Individuals setting priorities for a single country or region who have access to information (or reliable estimates) necessary to calculate treatment costs and potential cost savings from vaccines could employ the methods presented in Volume I (Institute of Medicine, 1985).

ELEMENTS OF THE SYSTEM FOR COMPARING MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY BURDENS ARISING FROM VARIOUS DISEASES

The system described below was designed not only to incorporate information relating to a disease (i.e., incidence, severity, complications, sequelae, duration, and distribution), but also to allow expression of individual value judgments on the undesirability (disutility) of various consequences resulting from that disease. Such value judgments are an inevitable part of the ranking process, whether they are explicit or implicit. The committee chose to make them explicit.

A format was devised with generic categories for estimates of the annual number of cases, complications, sequelae, and deaths associated with each disease. The scheme was designed to cover all major conditions that result from infectious diseases. Three levels of severity were established for both acute and chronic morbidity, and provision was made for recording the duration of an acute illness. The scheme also was designed to allow distribution of cases, complications, sequelae, and deaths among four age groups. An example of the matrix used to compile these estimates is shown in Table 4.3; the methods used to determine the entries are described below. Data on individual diseases are presented in Appendixes D-1 through D-19.



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