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TABLE 5.1 Predictions Table—Primary

Pathogen (Target Population)

Type of Vaccine

Cost of Development ($ millions)

Probability of Successful Development

Dengue virus (Infants and children in endemic areas; travelers to endemic areas)

Attenuated live vector virus containing gene for broadly cross-reacting protective antigen

25

0.75

Escherichia coli (enterotoxigenic) (Infants<6 months)

A combination of purified colonization factor antigens and possibly other antigens

25

0.50

Genetically engineered attenuated strains

25–50

0.70

Hemophilus influenzae type b (Infants)

Conjugated polysaccharide

15

0.90

Hepatitis A virus (Susceptibles of all ages; routine for preschool children)

Attenuated live virus

15

0.95

Polypeptide recombinant vaccine produced in yeast

25

0.95

Hepatitis B virus (Areas with high perinatal infection: all infants at birth (if possible). Other areas: all infants, simultaneous with other vaccinations, at earliest possible age)

Polypeptide produced by recombinant DNA technology

5

0.99

Japanese encephalitis virus (Children in epidemic and endemic areas; foreign visitors to epidemic regions)

Inactivated virus produced in cell culture

50

0.50

Mycobacterium leprae (Immunoprophylactic: all children in endemic areas. Immunotherapeutic: all recently infected individuals)

Armadillo-derived M. leprae

25

0.50

Neisseria meningitidis (Infants, 3 to 6 months)

Conjugated capsular polysaccharides. Groups A,C,Y, and W135

30

0.50 (dependent upon success in developing conjugation procedures with other vaccines)

Parainfluenza viruses (Infants)

Trivalent, subunit vaccine (which must contain fusion proteins)

25

0.80

Plasmodium spp. (All infants at risk, military personnel, travelers)

Plasmodium falciparum, synthetic or recombinant sporozoite antigen preparation

25

0.50

Multivalent synthetic or recombinant sporozoite antigen preparation (P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. ovale, P. malariae)

35

0.50



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