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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries (1986)
Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice (BPH)

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. "5. Predictions of Vaccine Development." New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1986.

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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities, Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries

Pathogen (Target Population)

Type of Vaccine

Cost of Development ($ millions)

Probability of Successful Development

Rabies virus

(Individuals at high risk, plus post-exposure prophylaxis)

Vero cell

5

0.90

(Same)

Glycoprotein produced by rDNA technology in mammalian cells

3–5

0.85

(Birth cohort in areas of high risk)

Attenuated live vector virus containing gene for protective glycoprotein antigen

10–20

0.50

Respiratory syncytial virus

(Infants at earliest possible age)

Polypeptides produced by recombinant DNA technology

25

0.80

Attenuated live virus

25

0.80

Rotavirus

(Infants at earliest possible age, preferably with oral polio vaccine)

Attenuated high passage bovine rotavirus

10

0.90

Attenuated low passage bovine rotavirus

30

0.80

Rhesus monkey rotavirus

30

0.80

Salmonella typhi

(Children; young adults at risk; travelers from developed countries to endemic areas)

Attenuated ga1E mutant S. typhi strain TY21a

2

0.90

Aromatic amino acid dependent strains of S. typhi

2

0.50

Shigella spp.

(Infants at birth or earliest possible age; elderly for epidemic strains)

Probably plasmid mediated outer membrane protein invasion determinant (small number of promising options need investigation to determine best approach)

25–50

0.70

for polyvalent vaccine

(0.85 for targeted S. dysenteriae and S. flexneri strains)

Streptococcus A

(Children,<3 to 4 years)

Synthetic M protein segment (excluding portions cross-reacting with human tissue)

50

0.80

Streptococcus pneumoniae

(Infants)

Conjugated polysaccharides, polyvalent

30

0.80

Vibrio cholera

(Children, especially <2 years)

Genetically defined live mutant V. cholerae (A−B+ or A−B− with respect to toxin subunit synthesis

25

0.75

Inactivated antigens

10

0.65

Yellow fever virus

(Young children)

Attenuated live virus produced in cell culture

15

0.95

Page
66
Front Matter (R1-R16)
1. Summary (1-18)
2. Priority Setting for Health-Related Investments: A Review of Methods (19-29)
3. Overview of the Analytic Approach (30-43)
4. Comparison of Disease Burdens (44-62)
5. Predictions of Vaccine Development (63-75)
6. Assessing the Likely Utilization of New Vaccines (76-81)
7. Calculation and Comparison of the Health Benefits and Differential Costs Associated with Candidate Vaccines (82-105)
8. Additional Issues in the Selection of Priorities for Accelerated Vaccine Development (106-120)
9. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations (121-142)
Appendix A: Selection of Vaccine Candidates for Accelerated Development (143-148)
Appendix B: The Burden of Disease Resulting from Acute Respiratory Illness (149-158)
Appendix C: The Burden of Disease Resulting from Diarrhea (159-169)
Appendix D-1: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Dengue Virus (170-177)
Appendix D-2: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Escherichia coli (178-185)
Appendix D-3: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hemophilus influenzae Type b (186-196)
Appendix D-4: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis A Virus (197-207)
Appendix D-5: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis B Virus (208-222)
Appendix D-6: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Japanese Encephalitis Virus (223-240)
Appendix D-7: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Mycobacterium leprae (241-250)
Appendix D-8: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Neisseria meningitidis (251-266)
Appendix D-9: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Parainfluenza Viruses (267-274)
Appendix D-10: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Plasmodium spp. (275-286)
Appendix D-11: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Rabies Virus (287-298)
Appendix D-12: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (299-307)
Appendix D-13: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Rotavirus (308-318)
Appendix D-14: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Salmonella typhi (319-328)
Appendix D-15: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Shigella spp. (329-337)
Appendix D-16: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus Group A (338-356)
Appendix D-17: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus pneumoniae (357-375)
Appendix D-18: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Vibrio cholerae (376-389)
Appendix D-19: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Yellow Fever (390-402)
Appendix E: Questionnaire for Assessing Morbidity-Mortality Trade-Offs (403-411)
Appendix F: Technical Notes (412-412)
Appendix G: Biographical Notes on Committee Members (413-417)
Appendix H: Additional Sources of Advice to the Committee (418-419)
Appendix I: Contents of Supplement to Volume II (420-420)
Appendix J: Preface to Volume I (421-422)
Appendix K: Contents to Volume I (423-423)
Index (424-432)