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(but discussed in the supplement to this volume) may soon need to be reassessed.

Although the outcome of scientific investigations cannot be predicted, the committee believes that the estimates and probabilities in Tables 5.1 and 5.2 are reasonable because they are based more on developmental than basic research investigations. The factors considered in arriving at each prediction have been stated in as much detail as possible, in the belief that regular reappraisal of these factors is essential. The flexibility of the model described in this report makes it easy to substitute alternative or updated predictions as they become available.


Institute of Medicine. 1985. New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities, Volume I. Diseases of Importance in the United States. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

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