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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries (1986)
Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice (BPH)

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. "7. Calculation and Comparison of the Health Benefits and Differential Costs Associated with Candidate Vaccines." New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities: Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1986.

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New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities, Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries

TABLE 7.1 The Basis for Estimating the Annual Number of New Potential Vaccinees and the Delay in Vaccination Benefits

Pathogen (Target Population)

Type of Vaccine

Individuals Entering Target Populationa

Delay in Vaccination Benefits

Dengue virus

(Infants and children in endemic areas; travelers to endemic areas)

Attenuated live vector virus containing gene for broadly cross-reacting protective antigen

Birth cohort in endemic areas: 48 million

Probable age of vaccination

(<1 year) to peak of DHF/DSSb (6 years), i.e., approx. 5 years

Vaccinate to peak age of dengue fever (adolescents and adults)

Escherichia coli

(enterotoxigenic)

(Infants<6 months)

A combination of purified colonization factor antigens and possibly other antigens

Birth cohort: 115.1 million

Probable age of vaccination

(<1 year) to peak age of disease (1–2 years), i.e., approx. 1 year

Genetically engineered attenuated strains

Hemophilus influenzae type b

(Infants)

Conjugated polysaccharide

Birth cohort: 115.1 million

Probable age of vaccination

(<1 year) to peak of serious disease (2–3 years), i.e., approx. 2 years

Hepatitis A virus

(Susceptibles of all ages; routine for preschool children)

Attenuated live virus

Birth cohort: 115.1 million

Probable age of vaccination

(<1 year) to peak age of disease in LTDCs (2–4), i.e., approx. 2 years

Polypeptide recombinant vaccine produced in yeast

Hepatitis B virus

(Areas with high perinatal infection: all infants at birth (if possible). Other areas: all infants, simultaneous with other vaccinations, at earliest possible age)

Polypeptide produced by recombinant DNA technology

Birth cohort: 115.1 million

Probable age of vaccination

(<1 year) to mid-point between peak of acute disease (10 years) and serious chronic illness (35–40 years), i.e., approx. 30 years

Japanese encephalitis virus

(Children in epidemic and endemic areas; foreign visitors to epidemic regions)

Inactivated virus produced in cell culture

Birth cohort in endemic/ epidemic areas: 64.8 million

Probable age of vaccination

(<1 year) to peak age of disease (approx. age 8), i.e. approx. 7 years

Mycobacterium leprae

(Immunoprophylactic: all children in endemic areas. Immunotherapeutic: all recently infected individuals)

Armadillo-derived M. leprae

Immunoprophylactic—birth cohort in endemic areas: 44.8 million

Immunotherapeutic—incidence approx. 1.5 million

6 years, based on estimated incubation period

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Front Matter (R1-R16)
1. Summary (1-18)
2. Priority Setting for Health-Related Investments: A Review of Methods (19-29)
3. Overview of the Analytic Approach (30-43)
4. Comparison of Disease Burdens (44-62)
5. Predictions of Vaccine Development (63-75)
6. Assessing the Likely Utilization of New Vaccines (76-81)
7. Calculation and Comparison of the Health Benefits and Differential Costs Associated with Candidate Vaccines (82-105)
8. Additional Issues in the Selection of Priorities for Accelerated Vaccine Development (106-120)
9. Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations (121-142)
Appendix A: Selection of Vaccine Candidates for Accelerated Development (143-148)
Appendix B: The Burden of Disease Resulting from Acute Respiratory Illness (149-158)
Appendix C: The Burden of Disease Resulting from Diarrhea (159-169)
Appendix D-1: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Dengue Virus (170-177)
Appendix D-2: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Escherichia coli (178-185)
Appendix D-3: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hemophilus influenzae Type b (186-196)
Appendix D-4: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis A Virus (197-207)
Appendix D-5: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Hepatitis B Virus (208-222)
Appendix D-6: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Japanese Encephalitis Virus (223-240)
Appendix D-7: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Mycobacterium leprae (241-250)
Appendix D-8: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Neisseria meningitidis (251-266)
Appendix D-9: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Parainfluenza Viruses (267-274)
Appendix D-10: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Plasmodium spp. (275-286)
Appendix D-11: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Rabies Virus (287-298)
Appendix D-12: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (299-307)
Appendix D-13: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Rotavirus (308-318)
Appendix D-14: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Salmonella typhi (319-328)
Appendix D-15: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Shigella spp. (329-337)
Appendix D-16: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus Group A (338-356)
Appendix D-17: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Streptococcus pneumoniae (357-375)
Appendix D-18: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Vibrio cholerae (376-389)
Appendix D-19: The Prospects for Immunizing Against Yellow Fever (390-402)
Appendix E: Questionnaire for Assessing Morbidity-Mortality Trade-Offs (403-411)
Appendix F: Technical Notes (412-412)
Appendix G: Biographical Notes on Committee Members (413-417)
Appendix H: Additional Sources of Advice to the Committee (418-419)
Appendix I: Contents of Supplement to Volume II (420-420)
Appendix J: Preface to Volume I (421-422)
Appendix K: Contents to Volume I (423-423)
Index (424-432)