Because of the controversy about congestion pricing proposals, careful analyses of how the policy would work at the local level, who would benefit, and how to compensate those disadvantaged by the policy are essential to informing the public deliberations about this policy. The Bay Area proposal benefited by having been subject to extensive modeling efforts to estimate the potential impacts.

The best available estimates from models, though still approximate, indicate that a $0.06/km ($0.10/mi) charge on all major corridors in the Bay Area and a $0.09/km ($0.15/mi) charge in the greater Los Angeles area would reduce total automobile travel and trips during the peak period by about 10 to 15 percent. The benefits to motorists traveling in congested conditions and willing to pay the fee would be tangible. On average they would save 10 to 15 min per round trip. Society as a whole would gain from the more efficient use of resources.

The travel reductions in the Bay Area and in the greater Los Angeles area would result in about a 3 to 9 percent reduction in different vehicular emissions regionwide. (The local effects on some pollutants, particularly carbon monoxide, would be much greater.) These estimates may appear to indicate a small effect on traffic and regional emissions from areawide congestion pricing. Other policies aimed at changing motorist behavior, however, have even smaller effects at the regional level. A combination of reasonably available demand management efforts such as improved transit services, lower transit fares, improved bicycle access, expansion of high-occupancy-vehicle lanes in the Bay Area, and other measures might approximate the effect that congestion pricing alone would have on trips and emissions, but would do so at a much higher cost.

The estimates of the regional effects of congestion pricing are only approximations. Empirical information is not available for some important

Front Matter (R1-R10)

Executive Summary (1-15)

1 Introduction (16-26)

2 Theory and Experience (27-38)

3 Possible Effects (39-57)

4 Technical and Political Feasibility (58-80)

5 Design, Evaluation, and Research (81-96)

6 Summary (97-103)

Appendix A: Traffic Congestion (104-116)

Appendix B: Theory, Experience, and Estimated Effects (117-139)

Study Committee Biographical Information (140-146)