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Index A Accuracy of offender classifications INSLAW scale, 186-190 Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, 183-186, 188-190 mean cost rating, 174 Rand Inmate Survey Scale, 178-181,188-190 relative improvement over chance (RIOC), 133,171-174,180-182,186-189 Salient Factor Score, 181-183,188-190 Active offenders, definition, 17,18; see also In- dividual offending frequency Aggravated assault, see Offenses, index Arrest probability (g) definition, 20 estimates of, 34,59-61,338 factors that increase, 157-158,335 offense-specific estimates of, 59-60,332-333, 408-409 Arrest rates, see Individual arrest frequency Arrest records, see Official records, arrests Arrests, see Arrest probability (q); Criminal jus- tice decision making, police decisions; Official records, arrests B Behavior modification, see Interventions; Reha- bilitation Burglary, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property C Career criminal units, 159-160,186 Career criminals, see Offenders, serious 451 Career initiation definition, 20-22,32,213-215 probability by age, 13,22,41-42,253 Career length and incarceration, 15,26,85,92-93,126-128, 133-134 definition and characterization of, 13,18,20 dropout rate, 20,85-89 estimates of, 18,22,94-95,293 measures of biases in, 90-91 by age, 86-89 by number of arrests, 89-91 in years, 91-94 persistence probabilities, 86-91 recommendations for studies of, 206 residual, 18,20,92-95,126 Career modification behavioral interventions, 116-117 community-based and family treatment pro- grams, 115-1 18 definition, lS-16, 109-110 employment programs, 120-122 individual and group counseling, 116,118 Job Corps, 120-121 optimal age for, 111 Outward Bound, 118 recommendations for studies of, 117-118,202- 204 strategies for, 15-16 substance abuse treatment programs, 118-120 training schools, 116

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452 Career termination, 85-86; see also Career length Chaiken, J., and Chaiken, M., see Self-report studies, Rand inmate surveys Chronic offenders, see Offenders, serious Classification, see Offender classification, pre- diction-based Convictions, see Official-record studies Crime control policies and strategies use of criminal career knowledge for, 15-16, 24, 26, 88, 109-110, 366 use of parole, 135-139 use of selective incapacitation, 130-135 see also Career modification; Criminal justice decision making; Deterrence; Incapacita- tion; Incarceration; Prevention of criminal careers; Rehabilitation Crime rates, aggregate as measure of crime, 12-13 interpreting, 13, 22-24, 49, 213 reduction of, 123-124 see also Individual offending frequency; Par- ticipation in offending Crimes, see Offenses Criminal activity, see Participation in offending; Individual offending frequency Criminal careers definition and model of, 18-22, 24-26, 28-30 recommendations for research on, 10-11, 67, 198-209 sample designs for research on, 101-104 studies of, see Longitudinal studies; Official records; Self-reports see also Career initiation; Career length; Indi- vidual offending frequency; Offense seri- ousness; Participation in offending; Pre- vention of criminal careers Criminal justice decision making parole, 135, 162-163 police decisions, 157-158 pretrial release, 160-161 prosecution, 158-160 records useful to, 190-195 sentencing based on offender characteristics, 130-135; see also Offender classification, predic- tion-based charge-based policies, 139-141 determinants of, 161-162 use of criminal career information in, 6-7, 155-157, 163, 195-197 use of current offense, L29, 157, 161, 163 use of demographic correlates in, 94 Cross-sectional data, 33, 104-105; see also Self- report studies D Dangerous offenders, see Offenders, serious INDEX Delinquency definition, 19 n.3 family influences on, 43 self-report studies of, 32 see also Participation in offending Desistance, false, 91; see also Career length Deterrence definition, 15, 28 evaluations of, 26, 28, 295-296 measurement of, 313 see also Career modification Differential association theory, 53 Duration of offending, see Career length E Elliott, D.S., see Self-report studies, National Youth Survey Employment/unemployment career modification programs based on, 120 122 in criminal justice decision making, 157-163 in prediction scales, 166, 180, 183, 186 individual offending frequency and, 75, 303 304, 348 participation in offending and, 13, 51-53, 286 289 pretrial release decisions based on, 161, 195 Ethical issues blameworthiness, 166 equal protection, 166-167 in prediction, 8, 17, 128-130, 156, 164-167, 171, 180, 195-197 in record-keeping, 190-195 in selective incapacitation, 129-130, 140 just deserts, 122, 129, 141, 165, 190 F False arrests, 14 n.l; see also Official records, errors and distortions in Farrington, D.F., see Longitudinal studies, Cam- bridge Study in Delinquent Development FBI Uniform Crime Report index offenses, see Offenses, index Felony, definition, 19 n.3 G Greenwood, P.W., see Offender classification, prediction-based Group offending and participation, 53 eect on incapacitation, 27, 123, 126, 135 recommendations for studies of, 205-206 H Habitual offender statutes, 128, 165 Habitual offenders, see Offenders, serious Hazard rate for initiation, 22, 41-42, 253 for career termination, 20, 85-89 see also Participation in offending Homicide, see Offenses, index

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INDEX Imprisonment, see Incarceration Incapacitation charge-based, see Criminal justice decision making, sentencing, charge-based policies collective, 122-128, 142-143, 146-151 definition, 15, 110 estimates of effects, 133, 141-142 for crime control, 15, 26-27, 85 selective definition, 16-17 in parole decisions, 135-139 estimating effects of, 122-123, 131-135, 142- 154, 311-312 n.6 operational issues, 141-142 see also Ethical issues; Incarceration; Of- fender classification, prediction-based Incarceration criminogenic eects of, 28 estimates of effects of, 12~128, 302 inefficient use of, 15, 26, 92-93, 128 length and parole decisions, 162-163 see also Prison populations Incidence, definition, 17 n.2; see also Individual offending frequency Individual arrest frequency age-specific patterns in, 23-24, 330, 344-345 definition, 59-60, 295 measurement of, 59, 330, 335, 339, 346-347, 363 offense-specific estimates of, 57-59, 328-332, 334 race-specific patterns in, 25, 41, 330 relationship to individual offending frequency, 59-61, 98-100 sex-specific differences in, 24, 25 sources of estimates, 55-57; see also Self-re port studies, Rand inmate surveys; OfFi cial-record studies Individual offending frequency behavioral models of, 365-366 correlates of age at career initiation, 72-74, 341, 344-346 employment/unemployment, 75, 303-304, 348 prior criminal involvement, 75-76, 304, 308, 341, 346 substance abuse, 67, 74-75, 106, 349~352 definition, 12, 18-19, 55, 293, 295, 306 distinguished from incidence and participa tion, 56, 294-296 estimates of accuracy of, 61 age-specific differences in, 67-70, 302-303, 307~11, 325, 327, 341, 344-345, 347~48 cross-state differences in, 67, 213 for inmates, 125-128 from arrest histories, 5~61, 66, 70-71, 92, 294, 325-327 453 from conviction records, 73-74 from self-reports, 302-325 offense-specific, 59-68, 74, 305, 314-316, 333-352 race-specific differences in, 70-72, 308, 310, 325, 327, 341, 347-348 sex-specific differences in, 67-68, 327, 347- 348 sources of, 56-58, 102, 296 - 302, 342-343; see also Individual arrest frequency; Offi- cial-record studies; Self-report studies measurement of adjustments of, 326 methodological issues in, 105-106, 332-337, 353-366 strategies for, 319-321 time at risk, 302 recommendations for studies of, 204-205 spurts in, 22, 64-65, 67, 74, 107, 308, 323 - 324, 349-352, 361 Initiation, see Career initiation INSLAW scale, see Accuracy of offender classifi- cation; Offender classification, prediction- based Intervention, see Career modification; Preven- tion Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classifi- cation, prediction-based Just deserts, see Ethical issues, just deserts Juvenile offenders, see Participation in offending Juvenile records participation studies based on, 32-33, 35, 39 recommendations on access and storage of, 193-194 use in criminal justice decision making, 159, 162, 166, 192-194 Lambda (A), see Individual offending frequency Larceny, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property Longitudinal studies British National Survey, 43, 227-228 Cambridge Study in Delinquent Develop- ment, 43, 227, 359 Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study, 43, 78, 224, 229, 234, 245, 277, 282, 294 design and strengths of, 32-33, 104-105, 217- 218 Marion County, Oregon, cohort, 225 of adoptees and their parents, 44, 234-235, 277-279 of child guidance clinic patients, 229, 248, 279, 286 Philadelphia cohorts career length of, 86-89, 91 individual arrest frequencies from, 56, 59, 70, 72, 339-341, 345-347

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454 offense seriousness patterns of, 78-79,81- 84,377-378,385-387,390,401-402,410 participation estimates from, 35-37,40-41, 48,219-226,229-234,245,247,251-252, 254-255,257,282,290,335 prospective compared with retrospective, 104- 105 Racine, Wisconsin, cohorts career length calculations from, 86,88-89 offense seriousness, 86-90,368,375-376 participation estimates from, 36-37,40,48, 224-225,229-234,245,247,251,375-376 recommendations for, 199-202 St. Louis, Mo., arrestees, 369,374-375 Youth-in-Transition study, 244 M McCord, J., see Longitudinal studies, Cam- bridge-Somerville Youth Study Mednick, S., see Longitudinal studies, of adopt- ees and their parents Misdemeanor, definition, 19 n.1 Models failure-rate, 168,170-171 mover-stayer, 415,417 of collective incapacitative effects, 124-127, 143-151 of criminal careers, 20-22,106-107 of individual offending frequency, 107-108, 365-366 of offender heterogeneity, 90 of offense switching, 383-384,405-406,413, 415-418 of selective incapacitative effects, 131-135, 143-146,151-154 of spurts in criminal activity, 107 recommendations for research on, 207-208 stochastic-process, 15 Motor vehicle theft, see Offenses, index; Of- fenses, property Murder, see Offenses, index o Offender classification, prediction-based effectiveness of, 188-190 errors in, 111, 171-172,180-182,188; see also Accuracy of offender classifications methodological issues cut points, 171-174,180-181 scoring, 156,171-174 record-keeping implications of, 190-191,195- 197 scale development candidate risk factors, 165-166,168-169 criterion variables, 167-168 least-squares methods for, 169-170 validation, 170-171,174-176,180,183-184 INDEX scales Burgess, 169,176,179 failure-rate, 168,170-171,182 Greenwood seven-factor scale, see Rand In mate Survey Scale INSLAW, 178,186-189 Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, 177-178, 183-186,189 Rand Inmate Survey Scale, 130-135,171 173,177-181,186,188-189 Salient Factor Scale, 135-139,178-179, 181-184,189-190 use of in decisions, 155-156,164 in parole release, 135-137 transferring scales between jurisdictions, 176-178 see also Accuracy of offender classifications; Ethical issues Offender rate, see Participation in offending, hazard and initiation rates Offenders characterization of, 317-319 generalists, 18,22,293; see also Offense switching persisters distinguished from Resistors, 90 selective treatment of, see Criminal justice de- cision making; Incapacitation, selective; Offender classification, prediction-based serious characteristics of, 75,89,94,319 sampling strategy for detecting, 102,364- 365 vulnerability to incarceration, 304 specialists, 18,22; see also Offense serious- ness, specialization Offending, see Individual offending frequency; Participation in offending Offense clusters age-related patterns of offending in, 395-396 assessment by geometric scaling technique, 376 characterization of offenders by, 317 definition, 80,395 identification of, 80,395-396 in transition matrices, 383 race-specific variation in, 80 switching within and between, 396-397 Offense mix, 77-79 Offense seriousness characterization and definition of, 13,18,76, 376 demographic variables and, 36,41,53-54,376, 379-382 escalation age-specific trends in, 84-85,94 definition, 366

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INDEX measurement approaches, 376 modeling of, 22 race-specific patterns in, 401 relationship between record length and, 403_404, 412 Sellin-Wolfgang scale for detecting, 401 transition matrix analysis of, 397, 401-404 in criminal justice decision making parole release, 163 police decisions, 157 pretrial release, 161 sentencing, 129, 161 methodological issues in studying, 77, 84, 105, 402, 406-408, 418 offender classification on basis of, 165 self-reports for study of, 409 specialization among adult offenders, 392 definition, 81, 366, 374-375, 390 demographic characteristics in, 81-84, 375, 391, 393, 394, 411 offense type, 83, 415-416 transition matrix analysis of, 390-395 studies of, 76-77, 368-374, 409; see also Offi- cial-record studies; Self-report studies see also Offense switching Offense switching between personal and property categories in, 81, 396-397 characteristics inter-arrest intervals, 413-414 prior offense type, 81, 396-397 definition, 77 demographic patterns in, 79-81, 385-390 from status offenses, 81, 397 methodological issues in studying biases in sample selection, 105, 374, 407 413 distortions from use of official records, 408 409 duration dependence, 417-418 Markov/non-Markov modeling of, 383-384, 405-406, 413, 41~418 population heterogeneity, 105, 384-387, 412-413, 415, 417 test for offense clusters in, 398-399 test of independence among offense types, 400 sources of data on, 366-367 to Resistance, 81, 397 transition matrices in studying, 77, 79, 376 404 see also Offense clusters Offenses arrest frequencies by type of, 57, 60-61, 68 definition, 19 n.3, 29 distribution among adult arresters, 380-381 455 distribution among juvenile offenders, 378 drunkenness, 79 index age-specific patterns in, 18, 23, 37, 78-79, 244-245, 253 definition, 19 n.3 individual offending frequencies for, 65-66, 313 lifetime participation in, 229, 248 participation by age 18, 219-224, 226, 246 247 participation by high school age, 38-39, 235-240 race- and sex-specific arrest rates for, 24-25, 53 race- and sex-specific patterns of participa tion in, 40-41, 67, 249-251 reduction through increased incarceration, 128, 140 switching patterns, see Offense switching indictable, participation in, 227, 234 non-index, participation by age 18, 219-224, 226 nontragic age-specific participation in, 18, 37, 219 224, 234, 240-241, 247 definition, 35 lifetime participation, 228-229, 247-248 race- and sex-specific participation in, 41, 251-253 personal definition, 19 n.3 lifetime participation, 229 probability of arrest for, see Arrest probability probability of committing, 253-256 property age-specific patterns in, 39, 77-79 definition, 19 n.3 individual offending frequencies for, 66 lifetime participation in, 229, 248 race- and sex-specific arrest rates for, 25 recording of, 33, 98-100 serious, see Offenses, index status definition, 19 n.3 switching from, 81 variation with career length, 93-94 see also Offense clusters; Offense switching Official-record studies based on arrests, 102, 224, 241 convictions, 102-103, 224, 227, 268-269, 279 court referrals, 225 - 226, 251 juvenile court adjudications, 240 juvenile court convictions, 227 juvenile court records, 32~3, 35, 39, 220, 224, 241

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456 police cautions, 227 recorded police contacts, 35, 219-225, 241 combined with self-report data, 38-39, 240- cumulative 241, 356-3S7, 364 design of, 32-35 of individual offending frequency, 59-61 of offense seriousness, 76-77, 366-406 of participation, 35-38, 250-252 research strategies for, 100-101 sample selection for, 218 see also Longitudinal studies Official records adult, use in criminal justice decision making, 161, 163, 190-192 arrests incomplete reporting of, 99, 330-331, 363 individual offending frequencies derived from, 65-67, 102 nonrecording rates for, 59, 99 definition, 14 errors and distortions in, 14 n.l, 22, 33, 55, 77, 81, 98-100, 102-104, 191, 362-364, 367, 408-409 estimating offending frequencies from, 59-61, 362-364 estimating participation from, 33-38, 216, 219 227, 240-241, 245-248 juvenile, see Juvenile records self-report, comparison with, 38-39, 101, 240 241, 248, 356-357 separation of juvenile and adult, 34, 192-194 sources of, 32~3, 212, 219 see also Arrest records; Victim reporting Onset of delinquency; see Career initiation p Parole, see Criminal justice decision making, pa- role Participation in offending as component of individual offending and ar- rest frequency, 19-20, 30~303 correlates of early antisocial behavior, 46-47, 279-282 employment/unemployment, 13, 51-53, 286- 289 family structure and disruptions, 45-46, 264-269 general, 42-43, 249, 256-257 genetic influence, 44, 277-279 intelligence, 49~50, 257, 264, 282-286 parental antisocial behavior, 273 parental criminality, 44-45, 273-279 parenting behavior, 43-44, 269-273 peer group influences, 53, 287-289 physiological factors, 287 school performance, 49-50, 28~286 sibling criminality, 264, 273 INDEX socioeconomic status, 47-49, 257-264, 268 substance abuse, 50-52, 118, 287-289 arrest projections based on, 228-229 by age 18, 32, 35-37, 106, 219-228 by high school age, 38, 235-241 calculation of, 213-215 estimation approaches to, 32, 214 current age distributions of, 41-42 arrest-specific measures of, 215 n.3 estimates of, 39, 241-245, 256 definition and terminology, 12, 17-19, 31-32, 211-213, 292 distinguished from individual offending fre quency, 17 n.2, 295 distinguished from prevalence and incidence, 17 n.2, 211-212 ecological studies of, 48-49, 257, 262 estimates of age-specific, 35, 41-42, 85, 219-235, 253 256 based on comparisons of official records and self-reports, 38-39, 240-241, 248 for adoptees, 234-235, 277-279 offense-specific, 33, 106, 305, 314-316 race-specific, 25-26, 36-37, 40-41, 219-226, 228-229, 252-253 sex-specific, 25, 35-40, 67, 219-228, 249 251 initiation and hazard rates, 32, 41, 214, 225 226, 248, 253-254 life-table studies, 32-33, 215-217, 225-227, 234, 246, 251 lifetime calculation of, 34, 106, 214 estimates of, 37, 228, 234-235 literature reviewed for estimates, 33-35, 21 219 measurement of age-specific, 214-215, 226 analytic framework for, 212-215 calculation from official records, 33~34 cohort effects, 216, 256 effect of data sources, 34-35, 39-40, 235 236, 245-249 general, 31-35, 212 observation period, 17 using multiple data bases, 34, 226, 228, 248 policy implications of findings on, 24, 109-111 prevention of, see Prevention of criminal ca reers recommendations for research on, 206-207 risk factors of, 15, 53-54, 110-111, 290 study designs of, 33-35, 217-219 Persistence in offending, 86-89; see also Career length

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INDEX Prediction, see Offender classification, predic- tion-based Predictors of offending, see Individual offending frequency, correlates of; Participation in offending, correlates of Pretrial release, see Criminal justice decision making, pretrial release Prevalence definition, 17 n.2 of delinquency, 31 n.l, 212; see also Participa- tion in offending Prevention of criminal careers definition, 15-16, 109 family-based programs, 111-112 Head Start (preschool) programs, 11~114 limits of, 110-111 recommendations for studies of, 113-114, 202 studies of, 111 Prison populations, effects of selective incapaci- tation policies on, 123, 127-128, 131, 140- 143 Prosecution, see Criminal justice decision mak- ing, prosecution R Rand inmate surveys, see Accuracy of offender classification, Rand Inmate Survey Scale; Offender classification, prediction-based, Rand Inmate Survey Scale; Self-report studies, Rand inmate surveys Rape, see Offenses, index Recidivism, 27~0 Recidivism rates demographic patterns in, 23-24 interventions for reducing, 109-110, 115-117 use of, 106; see also Offender classification, prediction-based, scale development; Of- fender classification, prediction-based, scales Rehabilitation, 15, 27-28, 295-296; see also Ca- reer modification Relative improvement over chance (RIOC), see Accuracy of offender classifications Repeat Offender Project, 158 Repeat offenders, see Offenders, serious Risk classification, see Offender classification, prediction-based Robbery, see Offenses, index S Safety crimes, definition, 19 n.3; see also Of- fenses, index Salient Factor Score, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, pre- diction-based, scales, Salient Factor Score Sample selection bias, 56, 59, 90-91, 101-105, 457 225, 304, 306, 323, 330, 332-337, 339, 353-359, 363, 374, 409-412 Self-report studies design and nature of, 21, 32~5, 56, 97-98, 212, 218-219, 302-304 estimates of participation from, see Participa tion in offending, estimates of, from self reports estimates of individual offending frequency, see Individual offending frequency, esti mates of, from self-reports National Youth Survey individual arrest frequency from, 56, 347 individual offending frequency from, 65-67, 323, 338, 348 offense mix patterns from, 76 participation estimates from, 41-42, 50-52, 65, 240, 244, 255-256, 268, 354~56 response categories and rates, 359-360 Rand inmate surveys biases in, 56, 304, 306, 323, 353 design of, 56, 97, 30~304, 306, 309-310, 312, 319 differences between two surveys, 63-65 first survey, 304~08, 310, 360 individual offending frequency estimated from, 61 - 65, 70-71, 75, 88, 126, 168, 302 offense distributions in, 417 response rates and quality, 98, 309~313, 322, 360~61 second survey, 308~25, 360~61 see also Offender classification, prediction based, scales, Rand Inmate Survey Scale research strategies for, 97-98, 101 Self-reports definition, 14 errors and distortions in, 14 n.3, 33, 55, 96-98, 101, 212, 235-236, 248, 306, 312~13, 322 estimates of arrest probability from, 60 incidents reported in, 21, 34-35, 212 obtaining valid frequency estimates from, 97, 359-362 official records, comparison with, 38-39, 101, 240-241, 248, 356-3S7 scope of, 21, 34~5, 212 Sentencing, see Criminal justice decision mak- ing, sentencing Shannon, L.W., see Longitudinal studies, Ra- cine, Wisconsin, cohorts Substance abuse delinquency and, 50-52 in identifying serious offenders, 163, 166, 180 individual offending frequency and, 67, 74-75, 106, 308, 310, 349-352 participation and, 50-51, 118, 287-289 pretrial release decisions based on, 161, 195 treatment for career modification, 118-120

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458 T Transition Aid Research Project for Ex-Offenders (TARP), 122 U Unemployment, see Employment/unemploy- ment V Victim reporting factors affecting, 34, 333 INDEX measurement problems in, 99, 361 rates of, 126, 332 Violent crimes, see Offenses, index Violent predators, see Offenders, serious W Wadsworth, M., see Longitudinal studies, British National Survey Wolfgang, M.E., see Longitudinal studies, Phila- delphia cohorts