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5
Research Agenda
J
ransnational crime is clearly a social and legal problem worthy of
attention; there are too many documented instances and too much
~ credible theory to dismiss it as mere journalistic sensationalism.
However, it is less clear as to just how large it is, whether it is expanding
rapidly, poses important new threats to American society, or requires major
changes in U.S. law enforcement. Nor is there much understanding of
what conditions foster it. A research agenda must address all of these mat-
ters: how it should be described and measured, how it affects American
society, and what are the means of controlling it.
The underlying question is what can the United States do to keep
transnational organized crime to a low level. A research agenda with this
theme would have at least three elements: problem identification, develop-
ment of data sources and possible methodologies for empirical and theo-
retical analysis, and assessment of the consequences of regulation and con-
trol. Separating the elements is, of course, not so neat. For example, the
identification of the problem to be studied has implications for the appro-
priate choice of datasets and methodologies, and what can be studied is
very much a function of the datasets that are likely to be available. The
following agenda draws on discussions characterized by divergent views;
hence it allows for alternative emphases among and within the various
topics.
40
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RESEARCHAGENDA
41
PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION
Scope
The focus of the workshop was on transnational organized crime, pri-
marily as it affects the United States, either domestically or in terms of U.S.
foreign interests. In Mexico and Russia, internal organized crime is impor-
tant since it raises issues of specific concern to the United States.
It is increasingly evident that Mexico has a major organized crime prob-
lem. Not only are large sums being earned by drug-trafficking organiza-
tions, but also those organizations are corrupting very high levels of the
government and may be responsible for a number of important political
assassinations.] Some U.S. officials are more willing to collaborate even
with Colombian enforcement agencies than with those of Mexico, because
the corruption of the latter has been so pervasive. Given that the United
States and Mexico are so intertwined economically, politically, and cultur-
ally, a Mexican organized crime problem becomes a major U.S. concern.
For example, the United States, even in the face of the requirements for
open borders of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), has
continued to inspect Mexican truck trafficking because of concerns about
the lack of integrity in Mexican border controls).
The concern with Russia has related origins. It is not as former adver-
sary but as the owner of a substantial nuclear stockpile under weak security
conditions that the United States has a special interest in how organized
crime weakens the governance of Russia. Russia's biological weapons pro-
gram is also a concern. The U.S. government has a variety of programs
aimed at strengthening the institutions of government and civil society in
Russia in order to prevent either the rise of a hostile government or the
leakage ofthe nuclear (or biological weapons) capability (materials or skilled
personnel) to other adversaries, such as Iran, Iraq, and Libya, or to terrorist
groups. Thus an American research program on transnational organized
crime should include coverage of organized crime in Mexico and Russia.
A second issue of scope needs to be addressed. Many important issues
involved in transnational organized crime are more appropriately the sub-
ject of investigation rather than research, usually because they involve clas
~A useful source on these matters are the Mexico chapters of the U.S. Department of
State's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report.
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TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
sifted materials or require the peculiar legal capabilities of law enforcement
agencies. For example, U.S. intelligence organizations have in the past
collaborated with drug-smuggling organizations, in both Asia and Latin
America. Social scientists may contribute to understanding these phenom-
ena and what mechanisms generate them or could lead to earlier detection,
but the basic task of developing knowledge is likely to be the province of
Congress or agencies such as the inspector general of the Central Intelli-
gence Agency.
Harms of Transnational Organized Crime
A research agenda aimed at policy making should include research on
the nature of the adverse consequences of various forms of transnational
organized crimes, which would help guide resource allocation decisions,
both between transnational organized crime and other crimes and within
transnational organized crime. Here we identify the harms that prior re-
search suggests deserve more attention.
National Security
As reflected in Presidential Decision Directive 42, already mentioned.
transnational organized crime is asserted to be a national security threat.
For example, Jonathan Winer, a senior State Department official, testified
that "transnational organized crime threatens America's national security
and foreign policy interests in a number of regions of the world, undermin-
ing legitimate economies and threatening emerging democracies."2 This is
offered as a justification for the leadership role that the State Department
has taken in various overseas programmatic activities in this functional area,
such as the International Law Enforcement Training Academy in Budapest.
An appropriate research task is assessing what forms of transnational
organized crime threaten national security and in what ways. For example,
it is asserted that money laundering threatens global liquidity and the
soundness of the global financial system. Although in theory money laun-
dering on a large-enough scale could indeed pose such a threat, it is worth
examining whether in any instance it has had a major impact and the cir-
cumstances under which that might yet occur.
2Winer Testimony before the Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control of the
Subcommittee on Trade of the Senate Finance Committee, July 30, 1996.
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RESEARCHAGENDA
43
Clearly drug trafficking has had a substantial impact on some pro-
ducer nations' security. The government of Burma over a 30-year period
has been engaged in a struggle with irredentist (rebel) groups that are fi-
nanced substantially by the drug trade; the Sendero Luminoso movement
in Peru was better able to fight the government in the 1 980s because of its
taxation of the local coca industry. Colombia, with many sources of large-
scale violence, has had its internal security efforts further compromised by
drug traffickers. But apart from Mexico and Russia, it is much more diffi-
cult to see how these phenomena imperil U.S. national security, except
under the very broadest of definitions, and that U.S. research is needed.
International Treaties
The rising concern about global environmental protection has created
new international regulations and treaties that are dependent on compli-
ance by many nations. The Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) is an early example of a successful treaty of this type. Any regula-
tion offers the opportunity for profitable evasion, but, since treaties often
impose lighter restrictions on poorer nations, niches are created for
transnational organized crime activities that undermine the agreement. The
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora
and Fauna (CITE) is another agreement, intended to control a trade that
usually involves purchasers in rich countries buying from suppliers in very
poor nations. Understanding the impact of transnational organized crime
on the effectiveness of these agreements may be an important topic.
In a perverse way, transnational organized crime also sometimes repre-
sents a threat when barriers are being lowered. NAFTA was designed to
facilitate trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico and the
elimination of numerous barriers. That should have reduced the role of
criminal organizations. However, NAFTA's continuation is dependent on
popular support, which may be withdrawn in the United States to the
extent that drug traffickers and smugglers of immigrants seem able to ben-
efit from the easier rules for crossing the U.S.-Mexican border.
Increasing U.S. Criminal Victimization
As a rich nation, the United States is an attractive target for crime. For
example, cars stolen for sale in poorer countries, by expanding the demand
for car theft, worsen the crime problem in the United States. Such theft
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TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
presents lower risk for the thieves than does sale to domestic purchasers of
stolen cars, because recovery from the ultimate buyer is so much less likely
once the car has left the country. Insurance spreads that cost but also raises
. . . . . · · · . · .
it oy insurers aamlnlstratlve and managerial expenses.
Intellectual property theft constitutes perhaps the most significant of
these transnational losses for the United States. Industry estimates, which
partake of advocacy but surely have some foundation, are that the interna-
tional piracy of software and recordings results in the loss of billions of
dollars for U.S. corporations (Dertouzos et al., 1999~. Here the interaction
of criminal and legitimate organizations is particularly troubling. The mar-
keting of these pirated products in the United States or elsewhere is done
primarily by legal business corporations. How many and what kinds of
firms are involved in these activities and how much is known by the owners
or senior executives are reasonable questions.
Worsening Americans Drug Problem
No doubt the removal of foreign supplies from the U.S. market for
illicit drugs would result in some substitution of domestically produced
synthetics. However, analysis of changes in drug abuse indicators following
three incidents of disruption of foreign drug supplies suggests that the sub-
stitution is far from complete; for example, more opiate users sought treat-
ment after the mid-1970s reduction in heroin imports, even though phar-
macological substitutes were available from domestic sources (Renter,
19921. Thus the extent to which transnational organized crime increases
crime and drug-related mortality and morbidity in the United States should
. . .
receive some research attention.
Corruption
Transnational organized crime may have a substantial impact on gov-
ernment corruption, particularly at the federal level. Cross-border smug-
gling of many kinds exposes border agents, including military personnel, to
considerable temptation. Transnational organized crime may facilitate cor-
ruption by lowering transaction costs; a single negotiation can establish the
schedule of payments for a series of shipments, rather than expose the agent
to the risks of repeated contact and negotiations with individual smugglers.
It is also possible that transnational organized crime can purchase protec-
tion more efficiently at the local level for the same reason, but its compara
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RESEARCHAGENDA
45
rive advantage in that respect looks less distinctive. The nature and scope of
government corruption related to transnational crime is an appropriate sub-
ject for future research.
Loss of Border Control
A nation is partly defined by its ability to control who and what crosses
its borders. Smuggling is inevitable for a large, wealthy country with in-
creasingly strong trading relations with the rest of the world. Powerful
transnational organized crime may substantially exacerbate both illegal bor-
der crossings (whether for the purpose of immigration or for more oppor-
tunistic criminal activities) and smuggling of goods either prohibited (e.g.,
protected species) or subject to other restrictions (textiles from a nation
whose legal imports already meet quota levels). Better estimates of illicit
goods and illegal immigrants smuggled across U.S. borders is an important
element of a research agenda on transnational crime.
Beneficiaries
Transnational organized crime, precisely because it so often involves
the servicing of markets, is not simply an involuntary transfer of assets. It
also is income-generating. Thus some foreign governments are ambivalent,
because some forms of transnational organized crime create employment
and bring in dollars. For example, in Bolivia a substantial fraction of its
peasant population has weak economic alternatives, particularly in areas,
such as the Chapare, that have developed specifically for coca growing
(Clawson and Lee, 19961. The Bolivian government has manifested a re-
luctance to take strong actions to reduce this production. Similarly, some
Asian nations, including China, have clearly been ambivalent about the
suppression of software piracy, as demonstrated in U.S.-China trade nego-
tiations in recent years. In that case, it is not only producers who benefit
but also customers in those countries in which software is so much more
cheaply available.
This list, though incomplete, suggests that the consequences of
transnational organized crime are potentially many and varied. Describing
and classifying them are preliminary steps to measurement and should form
r 1 . . .
an important part or research activities.
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46
i,
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
DATA SOURCES
Official Records
Official records such as court and regulatory proceedings must be an
mportant source of information. They are frequently highly detailed and,
at least in the United States, accessible public information. The trials of the
major U.S. Mafia figures in the 1980s generated a vast number of public
records, although apparently they have been little used for research.3 In
Italy, similar records, augmented by interviews with the principal infor-
mants jentitti), have already generated a number of studies that provide
considerable insight into the workings, both national and international, of
Italian organized crime (e.g., Gambetta, 1993; Paoli, 19971.
Some caveats are in order when using such data, however. Court
records report on a small and unrepresentative set of activities, usually the
most serious ones. Even in the population of actual prosecutions, itself
unrepresentative of all criminal activities of these enterprises, most cases do
not go to trial but are settled through plea bargains, which generate little
public information beyond the indictment itself. Most indictments iden-
tify a set of specific criminal acts that provide only modest illumination of
the underlying organization, although some prosecutors do use the indict-
ment document to reveal much of the relevant evidence.
Nevertheless, official, agency-generated records are currently one of
the best sources of useful data on transnational crime.
Investigative Records
Some scholars have been able to obtain investigative records from agen-
cies for purposes of researching organized crime (e.g., Cressey, 1969; Hailer,
19911. Such access is highly opportunistic, dependent on the whims ofthe
agency and on the personal skills and connections of the researcher, even
with industrious use of the Freedom of Information Act. These records
may indeed constitute an important source of data, though these access
problems may stymie their extensive use in a research program. Also, like
court records, they present problems of agency bias. Investigation is not
3More from these transcripts can be found in the popular literature; see, for example,
Blum and Todd (1995).
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RESEARCHAGENDA
47
random (and should not be) but it is difficult to determine the conse-
quences of the agency's choices as a sampling strategy, so to speak.
Ethnographic Studies and Surveys
Ko-Lin Chin has conducted a number of studies of Chinese organized
crime in the United States, using interviews with community members as a
principal data source (Chin, 1990, 19961. He has also conducted a mail
survey of gang members and was able to obtain some information about
their criminal activities by that means. Patricia and Peter Adler (Adler and
Adler, 1985) described the organization of the cocaine trade in the late
1970s by observation of participants whom they had met socially.
Ethnographic studies and surveys are considered jointly because they
derive information in the field. Both are valuable, but each has important
limitations. On one hand, surveys are expensive and subject to particularly
serious problems of nonresponse (exacerbated by the sensitivity of the sub-
ject) and gaps in the sampling frame (because many subjects are undocu-
mented aliens). On the other hand, ethnographic work is labor-intensive
and mostly suitable for the low end or street level of a trade (see, e.g., Curtis
and Svirdoff, 1994), which may not yield much information about the
transnational aspects. The multiplicity of languages used by the varied
national groups involved in transnational organized crime also complicates
this kind of research. However, when well done, ethnographic research
provides detailed knowledge that cannot be captured in surveys or other
empirical studies.
Informants
Related to ethnography is the use of informants, whether recruited
through an agency (e.g., Hailer, 1991) or by personal contacts (e.g., Ianni,
19721. The distinction is not a sharp one, but the informant may be inter-
viewed in circumstances very distant from his or her natural setting, whereas
ethnographers are generally rooted in the naturalistic setting of those pro-
viding the information. Informants may also be recruited in prisons, al-
though again there is serious question of how representative they are of the
larger participant population (see, e.g., Renter and Haaga, 19891.
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48
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Financial Records of Illegal Enterprises
Some investigations result in the seizure of the financial records of
illegal enterprises, particularly larger ones that use computers for such pur-
poses. Only a little use has been made of these for the study of domestic
drug distribution (e.g., Levitt ancl Venkatesh, 1998), but they can provide
valuable descriptive information. One of their attractions is that investiga-
tive agencies are likely to regard financial records as less sensitive than
records on inclivicluals.
Other Sources
Transcripts from electronic surveillance can provide a great clear of in-
formation about operations. Sometimes even when they are not included
in court transcripts, they can be obtained for research. Investigators, par-
ticularly those who have workocl under cover for long periocls, can prove at
least as useful as criminal informants. They may have less understanding of
the context of events, but they are likely to be more observant ancl capable
of providing analytically coherent accounts. Incliviclual prosecutors may
also provide important data concerning cases (without specific names) that
they did not pursue to court.
In summary, there are numerous potential data sources for the study of
transnational organized crime. Each has substantial weaknesses, ancl most
have an opportunistic element, since they are from operational sources.
However, taken jointly ancl using methods to combine them, they may
allow the development of a credible ancl multifaceted description of the
. . . ~ . . .
actlvltles of transnatlona . organlzec ~ crime.
TOPICS
Of course, to be useful for policy, the research would go beyond the
descriptive ancl also attempt to answer more analytic ancl causal questions,
particularly related to enforcement.
Contlitions Promoting Transnational Organized Crime
What conditions facilitate the development of transnational organized
crime? Passas (1998) has suggested that a principal factor is the existence of
cc . . . . '' 1 · 1.rr 1
crlmlnogenlc asymmetries, tnat IS, clltterences among nations in laws or
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RESEARCHAGENDA
49
regulations or in the effectiveness of enforcement. Thus one nation may
provide a safe haven, or at least a safer haven, for conducting criminal
activities in the other. Certainly this applies to the international drug mar-
ket. Coca could readily be grown in the United States (as it has been in
lava, Bengal, and Taiwan at various times in the 20th century), but the
much lower risk of sanction in the Andean nations, along with cheaper
land labor, has allowed them to be the dominant production centers for the
U.S. market. Similarly, weak efforts at vehicle identification and theft in
Eastern Europe and Latin America facilitate the exporting of stolen cars
from Western Europe and the United States. The hypothesis proposed by
Passas offers a starting point for study of what facilitates and impedes the
growth of transnational organized crime.
Immigration, both its numbers and characteristics, is also potentially
an important factor, but much may depend on the strength and stability of
government in the sending country, especially the firmness of the rule of
law and the specificity of legislation targeting criminal activities. The
opaqueness of many immigrant communities to policing allows organized
crime networks to flourish in a relatively safe setting. The extent to which
the receiving country is open to immigrants, providing opportunities for
the learning of language, culture, and new skills and a niche in the legal
economy, may influence the extent to which organized crime can gain a
foothold in immigrant neighborhoods. It would be important to examine
the roles of the sending country's economic and political conditions, the
size and geographic distribution of immigrants in the United States, the
speed of economic and linguistic assimilation into the broader community,
and political traditions in the sender countries.
Prices
Prices are an important element of any illegal market. They affect who
purchases the incentives for participation, and the damage that the activi-
ties cause in each nation. That Chinese immigrants apparently pay smug-
glers $45,000 per person for successful entry into the United States (Chin,
1998:25), compared with quite nominal amounts paid by Mexicans seek-
ing illegal entry into the country (Cornelius, 1989) may generate more
violence (both by smugglers in protection of their cargo and in collecting
these large debts) and corruption.
Not only do price data need to be collected in a systematic fashion,
perhaps with informant debriefings as a major source, but they also need
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50
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
systematic analysis. For example, how much is enforcement able to influ-
ence price? A simple framework has been developed (though not yet tested)
for the relationship between drug prices and drug enforcement (Renter and
Kleiman, 19861. That may be generalizable to other illegal market activi-
ties, including money laundering. Prices are also essential for analysis of
demand and supply factors that might lead to identification of other factors
susceptible to regulatory control.
Enforcement
Description and Classification
A possible starting point is a listing and systematic classification of
what constitutes enforcement activities relevant to the control of
transnational organized crime. It will be primarily a list of federal efforts.
Complementary to that list is a conceptual framework that suggests how
particular programs and interventions might be expected to affect
transnational organized crime that is, by what means each may affect
particular aspects of transnational organized crime. In terms of local en-
forcement, more research attention would be needed on the nature and
frequency of transnational organized crime and white-collar crimes that
come to police attention, as well as the conditions that give rise to them.
Such epidemiological or surveillance measures might support theory devel-
opment, provide for greater clarity with respect to the goals of enforcement
and prevention responses, and lead to more precise outcome measures.
Outcome Measures
Inasmuch as a program specifically targets transnational organized
crime, it will be necessary to develop measures to assess its success beyond
the apprehension and sanctioning of the targeted individuals and organiza-
tions. These include the classic elements of deterrence, general and spe-
cific, as well as the opening (through churning) or closing (because of the
incapacitation of a critical link) of new opportunities. Attention should
also be paid to unintended consequences. Money-laundering controls may
produce transaction costs that are borne by poor persons (as with limiting
the amount of cash that can be collected at urban bodega) or that reduce
the competitiveness of U.S. financial institutions.
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RESEARCHAGENDA
Preventive Strategies
51
Recently there has developed a line of analysis and innovation focused
on "opportunity blocking" for organized crime Jacobs et al., 19941. It
represents an understanding that much organized crime activity involving
legitimate industries is the exploitation of opportunities that arise from the
structure of contracting, regulation, or markets. Careful analysis of firms
or industries to identify vulnerabilities may prevent the emergence of orga-
nized crime. This may have application to transnational organized crime
and is an appropriate subject for research.
Prevention strategies that operate at a still broader level may be appro-
priate subjects for research, for example, more strategic policing of immi-
grant communities focused on preventing criminal groups from developing
power over legitimate community institutions. This would need to be done
in a way that recognizes the sensitivity of new immigrant communities to
discriminatory enforcement, but research building on the frameworks de-
veloped in community policing may be helpful.
RESEARCH METHODS
No single research approach is likely to dominate in this area. At one
level, as a workshop participant later suggested, the discussion could be
characterized as a debate between "skeptic describers" and ''quantifiers.'' At
another level, it was about the choice of unit and the most appropriate
. . . .. . ..
socla1 science alsclpllne.
Economics must play a role because markets are such an important
element of transnational criminal activities. But the standard economic
approaches have their limits in settings in which violence and legal penal-
ties serve as very discriminating selection mechanisms for participation.
The visible hand of violence may make the invisible hand of competition
less effective, although there are some major illegal markets in which that
appears not to be the case (Renter, 19831.
Economic approaches emphasize systematic modeling and measure-
ment. Economists are reluctant to enter research fields without the kind of
quantitative data that allow them to use the sophisticated techniques that
are now the staple and requirements of publication in good journals. Data
on transnational organized crime are not likely to reach that richness and
density for some time. It is worth noting, however, the observation or
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52
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
injunction of Alfred Blumstein (Carnegie Mellon University) that "the way
to get good data is to do something useful with bad data."
Other social sciences with more developed traditions for dealing with
qualitative data have much to offer. Network analysis and other frames for
the study of organization may generate a great deal of insight with the
qualitative data that will be available for some time. Criminology provides
a set of tools useful for the study of sanctioning effects. Williams (1998)
has shown that international relations can offer important insights.
In a setting in which quantitative data are scarce but stories are numer-
ous, case studies may prove a fruitful way to advance knowledge. Graham
Alison's Essence of Decision, a study of decision making during the Cuban
missile crisis, helped develop a new framework for analyzing government
decision making (Alison, 19711. Its power derived in part from the rich-
ness of its description of the decision process. Case studies have a well-
established role in many other fields of social science research, particularly
related to crime (e.g., Klockars, 1975; Sutherland, 19371.
The Cuban missile crisis was atypical, perhaps the only time Armaged-
don was squarely faced by the U.S. government. That atypicality turned
out to be analytically useful, because it threw so much of the process into
stark relief. A detailed examination of a major transnational crime event or
process may have the same power. For example, the Bank of Credit and
Commerce International case, involving numerous nations, organizations,
participants, and services around a fundamentally fraudulent institution,
could serve this role. Various agencies have published detailed reports on
the investigations they conducted on specific aspects of the case, both in
the United States and elsewhere, and Passas (1993, 1996) has conducted a
careful examination of these materials. Building on the work of Passas
(1996), a reexamination of all these materials to provide a precise descrip-
tion of the evolution of the bank could help develop hypotheses about
transnational organized crime or at least some major elements of it. Inter-
views with decision makers may well be an important component of such
work, as it was for Alison's classic study.
A critical research decision is whether the unit of analysis is the offense,
the offender, or the enterprise. For measurement purposes, the offense is
the more tractable unit. For purposes of theory and case study, it is the
offender or enterprise. In criminology there has been a great deal of atten-
tion to the offender and some attention to cooffending, which allows for a
distinction between acts and offenders for purposes of enumeration. In
transnational organized crime the enterprise is also important whether it
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RESEARCHAGENDA
53
is large or small, durable or transient, motivated by greed or a cause, pro-
tected by corrupt relations or trying to operate through secrecy.
IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY
Transnational organized crime presents a long-term research issue. At
this point it is possible to map out only the beginnings of a research agenda.
Moreover, despite the political urgency of the problem, research funds for
crime generally are extremely scarce (Wilson, 1997), and transnational or-
ganized crime will have to compete with spousal abuse, the deterrent effects
of imprisonment, and a dozen other important topics.
In the short run, it is important to use available opportunities, particu-
larly as a new area of research does well to establish its bona fides early. The
growing interest of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank
in corruption as a central problem of development and governance will
probably generate some related research activities at two institutions with
strong research traditions. The United Nations Office for Drug Control
and Crime Prevention has established a modest research program in this
area; although that should not drive the U.S. effort, its existence and form
should not be ignored. In particular, the UN has selected three crime
types for its efforts: drugs, people trafficking, and corruption. The
president's speeches have also given considerable emphasis to these same
offenses.
The research agenda sketched here starts early in the process of con-
ceptual and descriptive development. To attract good scholars into the
field will require that some of the initial investment go to conceptual efforts
that will demonstrate that this is more than a project of enforcement agen-
cies with little patience or taste for scholarly work. Attracting good schol-
ars to the field also will require a considerable funding investment, so that a
long-term, systematic, rigorous, and objective program, characterized by
well-established peer review procedures, can be mounted.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
transnational organized
