NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. William A.Wulf is chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This study was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract No. NASW-4938. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE ON STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF U.S. AERONAUTICS
ROBERT G.LOEWY, chair,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
KATHY ABBOTT,
Federal Aviation Administration, Hampton, Virginia
EUGENE COVERT,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
EARL DOWELL,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
JOHN FABIAN,
Analytic Services Inc. (retired), Port Ludlow, Washington
ULF G.GORANSON,
The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington
MICHAEL S.HUDSON,
Rolls-Royce Allison, Indianapolis, Indiana
CLYDE KIZER,
Airbus Service Company, Herndon, Virginia
DAVID MOWERY,
University of California, Berkeley
G.KEITH RICHEY,
Universal Technology Corporation, Dayton, Ohio
Staff
ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director
GEORGE M.LEVIN, Director,
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
JENNIFER PINKERMAN, Assistant Study Director
DOUGLAS BENNETT, Research Associate
LINDA VOSS, Technical Writer
CHRIS JONES, Administrative Assistant
MARVIN WEEKS, Administrative Assistant
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
WILLIAM W.HOOVER, chair,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia
A.DWIGHT ABBOTT,
Aerospace Corporation, Los Angeles, California
RUZENA BAJSCY,
NAE, IOM, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
AARON COHEN,
NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
RAYMOND S.COLLADAY,
Lockheed Martin Astronautics, Denver, Colorado
DONALD C.FRASER,
NAE, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
JOSEPH FULLER, JR.,
Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland
ROBERT C.GOETZ,
Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, Palmdale, California
RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI,
GRA Inc., Jenkintown, Pennsylvania
JAMES M.GUYETTE,
Rolls-Royce North American, Reston, Virginia
FREDERICK HAUCK,
AXA Space, Bethesda, Maryland
BENJAMIN HUBERMAN,
Huberman Consulting Group, Washington, D.C.
JOHN K.LAUBER,
Airbus Service Company, Miami Springs, Florida
DAVA J.NEWMAN,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JAMES G.O’CONNOR,
NAE, Pratt & Whitney (retired), Coventry, Connecticut
GEORGE SPRINGER,
NAE, Stanford University, Stanford, California
KATHRYN C.THORNTON,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
DIANNE S.WILEY,
Northrop Grumman, Pico Rivera, California
RAY A.WILLIAMSON,
George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
Staff
GEORGE M.LEVIN, Director
Preface
In 1999, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) commissioned the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB) of the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a four-month evaluation of the U.S. aeronautics program. Accordingly, an ad hoc Committee on Strategic Assessment of U.S. Aeronautics was convened to assess recent trends in the U.S. aeronautics research and technology (R&T) program. The assessment included work supported by government agencies and industry. The resulting report contains a summary of the information collected by the committee, findings on the impact of program trends on current programs, and recommendations for enhancing their effectiveness. The complete statement of task appears in Appendix B.
As specified in the statement of task, the intent of this study was to provide a timely review of national support of R&T in traditional aeronautics. Traditional aeronautics was defined as including both fixed- and rotary-wing aviation but excluding space operations, space launch and reentry, and some of the new air-breathing hybrid technologies proposed for hypersonic entry into space flight. Time constraints limited data collection and analysis and precluded site visits. In addition, NASA, which supplied much of the data upon which the committee based its deliberations, provided data that focused on topics of highest priority to NASA. In some cases, the priorities reflected in the statement of task had changed by the time the committee first met. The findings and recommendations of the committee, therefore, relied heavily on the collective knowledge, expertise, and judgment of the committee members and their combined experience. Also, the committee was unable to respond to all elements of the statement of task as thoroughly as it would have liked. For example, the committee did not obtain adequate information on how funds have been allocated to government, industry, and university researchers, and it was limited in its ability to undertake a comparable assessment of foreign investment in aeronautics R&T because of difficulty in obtaining relevant data. The committee also did not obtain enough information to develop a comprehensive view of the current content of aeronautics R&T programs, and so it made no findings in this area.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Alexander Flax, Aerospace Consultant
John Hansman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Hans Mark, Department of Defense
James Mattice, Universal Technology Corporation
Brian Rowe, GE Aircraft Engines
Robert Spitzer, The Boeing Company
Gregory Tassey, National Institute of Science and Technology
Ronald Yates, U.S. Air Force (retired)
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
The committee is grateful to everyone who supported this study, especially those who took the time to participate in committee meetings (see Appendix C).
Robert G.Loewy, Chairman
Committee on Strategic Assessment of U.S. Aeronautics
Tables, Figures, and Boxes
TABLE
1 |
Economic Impact of the Aeronautics Industry-1999, |
FIGURES
1 |
Market shares of international aerospace manufacturing, |
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2 |
European vs. U.S. orders for large commercial transport aircraft, |
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3 |
Aeronautics sales history, |
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4 |
Total R&D performed by industry as a percentage of net sales, |
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5 |
Aeronautics industry trends, 1988–1997, |
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6 |
NASA aeronautics and R&D funding history, |
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7 |
Department of Defense aeronautics R&T funding (total and fixed wing vehicles), |
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8 |
Public support for European Union aerospace R&D, |
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9 |
Trade balance by industry, 1997, |
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10 |
Projected world aircraft market by segment: 1999–2008, |
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11 |
Percentage of the U.S. population that has flown commercially, |
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12 |
On-time rate for U.S. Air Force airlift missions during the 1999 Balkan Campaign, |
BOX
1 |
NASA’s Aeronautics Goals, |