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Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

Index

Abortion, 5, 57, 102

Accuracy of projections, vii, 1-2, 3-4, 10, 12, 17, 34

age structures, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148

elderly persons, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149

young persons, 38, 45, 49, 50-51

Australia, 44, 132

baseline data, 29, 42-44, 48, 49, 51

Canada, 44, 45(n.12), 132

country-level forecasts, general, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133

developing countries, general, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135

fertility, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91

historical perspectives, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176

industrial countries, general, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177

Japan, 44

Middle East, 44, 48, 132-133

migration, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183

mortality, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149

New Zealand, 44, 132

North Africa, 44, 48, 132

past projections, 32-33, 37-52

population size factors, 44, 46

regional, general, 44, 51

U.N., 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135

U.S.A., 44, 45, 132, 134, 135

World Bank, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135

see also Forecast length;

Uncertainty

Afghanistan, 126, 163, 168, 171

Africa, 2, 20, 199, 200, 211

fertility, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78

HIV/AIDS, 69, 128, 141, 174

migration, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174

mortality, 24, 69, 124

see also Middle East;

North Africa;

Sub-Saharan Africa;

specific countries

Age structure, 1, 2, 3, 23, 198

accuracy of projections, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148

China, 45

cohort-component method, 29, 30

developing countries, general, 23, 27, 28-29, 45

fertility, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101

childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190

marital age, 57, 72-73

replacement, 27-28

growth rates and, 27-29

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

India, 45

industrial countries, general, 28, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122

elderly persons, 2, 121-122

migration, 27-28, 49, 175, 181, 183, 191

mortality, 7, 23, 49, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122, 128, 135-138, 148, 197

elderly persons, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148

young persons, 117, 122

population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29

scenarios, 191, 193-194

UN forecasts, 45

Western Europe, 28, 45, 136

see also Birth-cohort analysis;

Elderly persons;

Infants;

Population momentum;

Young persons

Aggregation, 10, 38, 51, 189, 192

AIDS, see HIV/AIDS

Albania, 84, 87, 167

Algeria, 125

Angola, 70

Argentina, 89, 124, 139, 156, 163, 164, 171

Asia, 2, 20, 199, 200

fertility, 25, 53, 54-55, 74, 78, 86

historical perspectives, 24

HIV/AIDS, 174, 195

marital age, 57

migration, 8, 158, 160, 161, 162-163, 164, 165, 167, 171, 173

mortality, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132

replacement fertility, 25

see also East Asia and the Pacific;

Middle East;

specific countries

Australia, 20, 208, 209, 211

accuracy of projections, 44, 132

fertility, 84, 85, 86

migration, 8, 156, 160, 161, 164-165, 170, 175

mortality, 116, 132

Bangladesh, 5, 22, 57, 59, 61, 70, 90(n.7), 171

Baseline data, 29, 42-43, 48, 49, 51

Behavioral factors, 194

HIV/AIDS, 143-144

mortality, 7, 123, 140-141, 143-144

smoking, 123, 140

see also Family planning;

Social and cultural factors

Biomedical research, 13, 32, 33, 104-106, 120, 122, 123, 127, 147, 148-149

Birth-cohort analysis, 48-49

cohort-component method, 3, 27, 29-32, 201

fertility, 29-30, 31, 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12)

life expectancy, 114(n.1), 149

Birth control, see Abortion;

Contraception;

Family planning

Birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106

Births, see Fertility

Bosnia-Herzegovina, 167, 168, 171

Botswana, 162

Brazil, 22, 55, 71, 125, 156, 164, 171, 209

Bulgaria, 167

Bureau of the Census, see U.S. Census Bureau

Burkina Faso, 162

Burma, 125

Burundi, 143

Cambodia, 126, 142-143, 163

Canada

accuracy of projections, 44, 45(n.12), 132

age structure, 45(n.12)

migration, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175

mortality, 132

Caribbean region, see Latin America and the Caribbean

Census Bureau, see U.S. Census Bureau

Censuses, 12

age structures, 45

baseline error, 42

cohort-component method, 29

migration, 157(n.1)

Children, see Infants;

Young persons

Chile, 124

China, 22-23, 208, 209

age structure, 45

fertility, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194

migration, 158, 169, 183

mortality, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194

Climate, see Weather

Cohorts, see Birth-cohort analysis

Colombia, 72, 125

Communications technology, see Telecommunications

Component rates, general, 29-30, 31, 46-50

see also Fertility;

Growth rates;

Migration;

Mortality;

Vital rates

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

Computer applications, 30, 32, 34

Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207

Confidence intervals, see Probability distributions

Congo, 22, 23, 68, 70

Contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69, 104, 199

see also Abortion;

Family planning

Costa Rica, 55, 58, 124

Côte d'Ivoire, 55, 68, 162, 171

Country-level forecasts, general, 16, 17

accuracy, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133

fertility, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91

mortality, 24, 114, 115, 117, 131-133, 138

uncertainty, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216

see also Developing countries;

Industrial countries;

Migration;

specific countries

Crisis migration, see “migration” under Disasters and crises

Crisis mortality, 8, 9, 10, 118-119, 120-121, 127-128, 135, 137, 141-148, 149

famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162

influenza, 119, 128, 143, 147

political upheaval, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143

see also HIV/AIDS

Cuba, 124

Cultural factors, see Social and cultural factors

Czech Republic, 167

Death rates, see Mortality

Definitional issues

forecast, 15-16(n.1)

growth rates, 24

life expectancy, 114(n.1)

migration, 184

population momentum, 27

population projection, 15(n.1)

posttransition fertility, 83

regions, 207-208

replacement fertility, 24

Denmark, 45(n.12)

Developed countries, see Industrial countries;

specific countries and regions

Developing countries, 15, 22-23, 211

accuracy of projections, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135

age structure, 23, 27, 28-29, 45

fertility, 5, 85

abortion, 5, 57

contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69

migration, 172-173

replacement, 24-25, 64

transitional, 34, 53-78

migration, 158, 159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184

mortality, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139-141

regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 28

standards of living, 58, 59, 69, 124, 125, 170-171, 183

time-series analysis, 201-202

see also specific countries and regions

Diet, see Nutrition

Disasters and crises, 195

famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162

migration, 9, 10, 13, 48, 50, 162-168 (passim), 171-172, 178, 184

see also Crisis mortality

Diseases and disorders, 26, 47, 118, 119-120, 122, 123, 124, 135-136, 148-149, 188, 194

infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105

migration, 174

transitional fertility, 59

see also HIV/AIDS;

Medical science;

Mortality

East Asia and the Pacific, 21, 22, 211

age structure, 23

fertility, 54-55, 85

migration, 158-159

Eastern Europe, 211

fertility, 85, 101, 199

HIV/AIDS, 31

migration, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173

mortality, 8, 128, 194, 199

see also specific countries

East Timor, 126

Economic factors, 3

cohort-component method, 30-31

fertility, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim), 70-76 (passim), 78, 98, 101-102, 107, 108

migration, 9, 162, 163-164, 166, 167, 169, 171, 179-182

mortality, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149

opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

replacement fertility, 25

taxation, 103

uncertainty, 32, 188, 198-199

see also Developing countries;

Employment factors;

Industrial countries;

Standards of living

Educational attainment, fertility and, 58, 59, 69, 72, 199

literacy, 59, 62, 70, 75

women, 72, 140

Egypt, 125, 209

Elderly persons, 2, 8, 11, 13, 23, 194-195, 198

accuracy of projections, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149

industrial countries, 2, 121-122

migration, 175

mortality, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148

transitional fertility, 59

El Salvador, 125, 143

Emigration and immigration, see Migration

Employment factors, 194

migration, 162, 166, 168, 169, 178, 179-181

women, 58, 100-101

Energy supply and demand, 1, 189

England, see United Kingdom

Environmental feedback, 31-32, 184

Environmental protection, 1, 13, 16, 188, 189

Errors, see Accuracy of projections;

Uncertainty

Ethiopia, 22, 23

Europe, see Eastern Europe;

Western Europe;

specific countries

Expert-based probabilistic projections, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215

Ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215

Family planning, 3, 33, 56-57, 58, 60, 62, 69, 78, 94

genetic selection, 105-106

government programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78

international programs, 56-57, 74, 76

proception technology, 104-105

sex selection, 105

uncertainty, 33

see also Abortion;

Contraception

Famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162

Females, see Fertility;

Gender factors

Fertility, viii, 2, 3, 5-7, 17, 24, 34

accuracy of projections, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91

Africa, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78

age structure and, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101

childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190

marriage age, 57, 72-73

replacement, 27-28

Asia, general, 25, 53, 54-55, 74, 78, 86

Australia, 84, 85, 86

baseline data, 48, 49

birth-cohort analysis, 29-30, 31, 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12)

birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106

China, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194

cohort-component method, 29-30, 31

country-level forecasts, general, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91

definitional issues, 24, 83

developing countries, general, 5, 85

abortion, 5, 57

contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69

migration, 172-173

replacement, 24-25, 64

transitional, 34, 53-78

East Asia, 54-55, 85

Eastern Europe, 85, 101, 199

economic factors, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim), 70-76 (passim), 78, 98, 101-102, 107, 108

educational attainment, 58, 59, 69, 70, 72, 75, 140, 199

elderly persons, 59

forecast length, 13, 41, 46, 65, 66, 90, 91

gender factors, 58, 70, 72, 100-101, 105, 140

HIV/AIDS and, 55, 69, 78

IIASA, 19, 65, 69, 202

illustrative forecasts, 204-206

India, 5, 67

industrial countries, general, 2, 5, 11, 13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206

migration and, 172-173

posttransition, 6, 83-108, 190

infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105

Japan, 73, 84, 85, 86, 87, 98

Latin America and the Caribbean, 25, 53, 54, 55, 61, 71, 84, 85, 86

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

marriage and marital status, 6, 32, 41, 57, 70, 72-73, 78, 87, 92, 99-100, 175

methods of projection, 63-68, 87-88, 94(n.12)

Middle East, 54, 55, 60, 61, 70

migration and, 2, 71, 172-173, 205-206

modeling, 13, 64, 65

mortality and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 194, 199

New Zealand, 84, 85, 86, 87

North Africa, 54, 55

Northern America, 53, 84, 85, 86

opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106

political factors, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101-104, 107

family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78

population projection defined, 15(n.1)

posttransition, 6-7, 34, 83-108, 190

regional populations, general, 5, 54, 55, 85, 205

rural areas, 61, 73, 74, 75

social and cultural factors, 6, 25, 57, 58-63 (passim), 69, 70-71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10), 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172

South Asia, 25

Soviet Union, 199

standards of living and, 58, 59, 69

Sub-Saharan Africa, 5, 6, 54, 55, 68, 69-70, 76, 78

time-series analysis, 88, 93, 200-202, 204-206

transitional, 34, 53-78, 83, 106, 190

U.N., 25, 63-65, 67, 68, 69-70, 75, 76, 86, 87-88

uncertainty, 4, 32, 188, 190, 194-195, 196, 201, 202, 204-206

scenarios/variants, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190, 191, 202

urban areas, 57, 60, 70, 72

U.S.A., 87, 95-100 (passim), 103

U.S. Census Bureau, 64-65, 191

Western Europe, 53, 84, 85, 86, 199

World Bank, 64, 65, 67, 69-70, 71, 75, 88

see also Abortion;

Contraception;

Family planning;

Higher-order births;

Replacement fertility

Food supply and demand, 1, 32, 189

famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162

Malthusian theory, 15

mortality and, 118

see also Nutrition

Forecast length, 5, 12, 38, 41-42, 50, 189-190, 192, 206, 208, 209, 214, 215

baseline error, 43, 48

cohort-component method, 29-32 (passim)

fertility, 13, 41, 46, 65, 66, 90, 91

migration, 41, 176-177

mortality, 13, 41, 122, 129-130, 131, 136, 137

regional, 10, 44

France, 178, 209

Gabon, 89-90

Gaza Strip, 163

Gender factors, 3, 100-101

cohort-component method, 29, 30

education of women, 72, 140

employment of women, 58, 100-101

fertility, 58, 70, 72, 100-101, 105, 140

migration, 175, 181, 191

mortality, 26, 115-117, 121, 122, 129, 197

scenarios, 191

sex selection of children, 105

uncertainty, 32, 191, 197

Genetic factors, 105-106

Germany, 87, 98-99, 103, 157, 178, 209

Ghana, 55, 68, 70, 125

Government role, 5-6

family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78

HIV/AIDS, 143

migration, 178

taxation, 103

see also Political factors and policy;

U.S. Census Bureau;

U.S. Social Security Administration

Greece, 87, 166

Growth rates, vii, 19, 206

age structure, 27-29

defined, 24

developing countries, 22

forecast length, 42

historical perspectives, 15, 17-19, 24, 42

industrial countries, 22

Malthusian theory, 15, 31

regional, 20, 22, 24

see also Fertility;

Migration;

Mortality;

Population momentum

Guinea, 162

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

Haiti, 126

Health factors, 41, 47, 61, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 140-141

migration, 173-174

see also Diseases and disorders;

Medical science;

Mortality

Higher-order births, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106

Historical perspectives, vii, 2, 5, 15, 18

accuracy of past projections, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176

childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96

cohort-component method, 30, 31, 32

ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215

fertility, 5, 6

posttransition, 84, 86-87, 89-108

transitional, 34, 53-78

forecast length, 41-42

growth rates, 15, 17-19, 24, 42

Malthusian theory, 15, 31

migration, 8, 9, 156-168, 171, 172, 175-177, 181-182, 183, 184

mortality, 24, 114, 115-129, 130-134, 139, 141-145, 146, 147

policy feedback, 33

uncertainty, 32-33, 194-195

U.N. projections, 4-5

HIV/AIDS, 10, 31, 32, 69, 126, 127, 128, 133, 135, 143-145, 146, 149

Africa, general, 69, 128, 141, 174

Asia, general, 174, 195

behavioral factors, 143-144

Eastern Europe, 31

fertility and, 55, 69, 78

migration and, 174

regional impacts, general, 144-145

Sub-Saharan Africa, 8, 47, 55, 69, 133, 141, 143, 144-145, 146, 147, 195

uncertainty, 194, 195, 199, 201

U.S.A., 144

World Bank, 144, 145

Hungary, 167

Iceland, 87

IIASA, see International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Immigration Act (U.S.), 164

Immigration and emigration, see Migration

Immigration Reform and Control Act, 164(n.5), 165

India, 22-23, 209

age structure, 45

fertility, 5, 67

migration, 171, 172

mortality, 125

Indonesia, 22, 59, 71, 125, 209

Industrial countries, 2, 12, 211

accuracy of projections, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177

age structure, 28, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122

elderly persons, 2, 121-122

fertility, 2, 5, 11, 13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206

migration and, 172-173

posttransition, 6, 83-108, 190

growth rate, 22

migration, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180

mortality, 7, 8, 115, 117-123, 125, 128, 132, 135, 139

regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 22

standards of living, 119, 124, 170-171, 183

see also specific countries and regions

Infants, 4, 45, 51

mortality, 48, 57, 63, 72, 114, 120, 125, 127

Influenza, 119, 128, 143, 147

International Conference on Population and Development, 74

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 11, 17-18, 19, 202

baseline data, 51

fertility, 19, 65, 69, 202

methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 65

mortality, 19

regional projections, 1, 21, 22

International organizations, general, 16

baseline data, 51

family planning programs, 56-57, 74, 76

see also specific organizations

Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207

Iran, 171

Iraq, 171

Israel, 87, 124

Italy, 6, 87, 96, 97, 99-100, 166

Ivory Coast, see Côte d'Ivoire

Japan, 16, 20, 22, 23, 209

accuracy of projections, 44

fertility, 73, 84, 85, 86, 87, 98

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

historical perspectives, 24

migration, 8, 164

mortality, 7, 114, 115

Jordan, 163

Kazakhstan, 167, 171

Kenya, 125, 144

Kuwait, 163, 168, 171

Laos, 126

Latin America and the Caribbean, 2, 20, 21, 22, 24, 199, 211

age structure, 23

fertility, 25, 53, 54, 55, 61, 71, 84, 85, 86

migration, 159, 161, 163-164, 173

mortality, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132, 146

replacement fertility, 25

see also specific countries

Lebanon, 163

Lesotho, 162

Liberia, 48, 70, 143, 147, 162, 168

Libya, 162

Life expectancy, see Mortality

Literacy, 59, 62, 70, 75

Living standards, see Standards of living

Macedonia, 87

Malawi, 7, 68, 114

Malaysia, 87, 171

Males, see Gender factors

Mali, 162

Malthus, Thomas, 15, 31

Marriage and marital status, 6, 32, 41, 57, 70, 72-73, 78, 87, 92, 99-100, 175

Mass media, 5, 16, 71

Mauritius, 125

Medical science, 3, 13

mortality and, 7, 26, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 127, 135, 136-137, 147, 194

uncertainty, 32, 33

see also Biomedical research;

Contraception;

Diseases and disorders

Men, see Gender factors

Methods of projection, 17, 29-32, 51

aggregation, 10, 38, 51, 189, 192

averaging percentage errors, 39-40

cohort-component method, 3, 27, 29-32, 201

fertility, 63-68, 87-88, 94(n.12)

migration, 174-182, 184

mortality, 138, 140, 148, 200-202

probability distributions, 10, 188, 189, 195-198, 200-206, 216

expert-based, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215

ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215

stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208

time-series analysis, see Time-series analysis

see also Accuracy of projections;

Forecast length;

Models and modeling;

Scenarios;

Uncertainty;

“methods of project” under International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis;

United Nations;

U.S. Census Bureau;

World Bank

Mexico, 27, 55, 71, 164, 171, 181, 209

Middle East, 21, 22, 60, 211

accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132-133

age structure and momentum, 29

fertility, 54, 55, 60, 61, 70

migration, 48, 156, 163

mortality, 115, 116, 132-133

see also specific countries

Migrant stock, 156-167 (passim)

Migration, viii, 3, 8-9, 11, 12, 17, 24, 26-27, 34, 156-184

accuracy of projections, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183

Africa, general, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174

age structure, 27-28, 49, 181, 183, 191

elderly persons, 175

young persons, 49, 172-173, 175

Asia, general, 8, 158, 160, 161, 162-163, 164, 165, 167, 171, 173

Australia, 8, 156, 160, 161, 164-165, 170, 175

baseline data, 48, 49

Canada, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175

censuses, 157(n.1)

China, 158, 169, 183

cohort-component method, 29, 30, 31

crisis, 9, 10, 13, 48, 50, 162-168 (passim), 171-172, 178, 184

defined, 184

developing countries, general, 158, 159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184

disease factors, 174

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

East Asia, 158-159

Eastern Europe, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173

economic factors, 9, 162, 163-164, 166, 167, 169, 171, 179-182

employment factors, 162, 166, 168, 169, 178, 179-181

fertility and, 2, 71, 172-173, 205-206

forecast length, 41, 176-177

gender factors, 175, 181, 191

growth rates and, 26-27

health factors, 173-174

historical perspectives, 8, 9, 156-168, 171, 172, 175-177, 181-182, 183, 184

HIV/AIDS and, 174

India, 171, 172

individual choices, 41

industrial countries, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180

Japan, 8, 164

Latin America and the Caribbean, 159, 161, 163-164, 173

methods of projection, 174-182, 184

Middle East, 48, 156, 163

modeling, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184

mortality and, 172-173

New Zealand, 156, 160

North Africa, 48, 158, 161, 162

Northern America, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173

political factors, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184

population projection defined, 15(n.1)

regional populations, general, 3, 27, 48, 156, 158-159, 160-167, 171, 173, 192-193

rural areas, 167, 179-180

social and cultural factors, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183

South Asia, 158, 161, 163

Soviet Union, 157, 159, 165, 166, 167, 169, 172

standards of living, 170-171, 183

Sub-Saharan Africa, 158, 161, 162, 171

theory, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184

time-series analysis, 191

U.N., 27, 165, 168, 174, 184

refugees, 162, 163, 166, 178

uncertainty, 32, 156, 178, 188, 190, 192-193, 196, 202, 205-206

scenarios/variants, 190, 191, 192-193, 202

urban areas, 179-180

U.S.A., 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175, 182(n.12)

U.S. Census Bureau, 174, 191

see also “migration” under Disasters and crises

Models and modeling, 12, 13

cohort-component method, 30, 92(n.9)

ex post analysis, 207-208, 215

fertility, 13, 64, 65

migration, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184

mortality, 135, 136

stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208, 213

uncertainty, 34, 198, 214, 215

see also Methods of projection;

Scenarios

Moldova, 87

Momentum,

see Population momentum

Mortality, viii, 3, 7-8, 11, 17, 26, 34, 114-149

accuracy of projections, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149

Africa, 24, 69, 124

age structure and, 7, 23, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148

elderly persons, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148

young persons, 117, 122

Asia, general, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132

Australia, 116, 132

baseline data, 48, 49

behavioral factors, 7, 123, 140-141, 143-144

birth-cohort analysis, 114(n.1), 149

Canada, 132

China, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194

cohort-component method, 29-30, 31

country-level forecasts, general, 24, 114, 115, 117, 131-133, 138

definitional issues, 15(n.1), 114(n.1)

developing countries, general, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139-141

Eastern Europe, 8, 128, 194, 199

economic factors, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149

fertility and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 199 194,

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

food supply, 118;

see also Famine

forecast length, 13, 41, 122, 129-130, 131, 136, 137

gender factors, 26, 115-117, 121, 122, 129, 197

historical perspectives, 24, 114, 115-129, 130-134, 139, 141-145, 146, 147

IIASA, 19

India, 125

industrial countries, 7, 8, 115, 117-123, 125, 128, 132, 135, 139

infant, 48, 57, 63, 114, 120, 125, 127

Japan, 7, 114, 115

Latin America and the Caribbean, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132, 146

medical science and, 7, 26, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 127, 135, 136-137, 147, 194

methods of projection, 138, 140, 148, 200-202

Middle East, 115, 116, 132-133

migration and, 173-174

modeling, 135, 136

North Africa, 116, 132-133

political factors, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143

population projection defined, 15(n.1)

regional populations, general, 24, 115, 116, 127, 132-133

social and cultural factors, 7, 127, 141-143

Soviet Union, 128, 137, 142, 143-144, 194, 199

standards of living, 7, 118, 119, 124, 125, 133, 139, 140, 146

Sub-Saharan Africa, 8, 47, 115, 116, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 146, 147

time-series analysis, 138, 140, 148, 200-202

transitional fertility, 57-58, 62, 63, 76

U.N., 26, 129, 130, 131, 135

uncertainty, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206

scenarios/variants, 129, 190, 202

urban areas, 119, 120

U.S.A., 116, 132, 134, 135, 144, 200-201

U.S. Census Bureau, 191

weather factors, 118, 128, 194;

see also Famine

Western Europe, 116, 118, 119, 136, 199

World Bank, 26, 129-130, 131, 135, 144, 145

see also Crisis mortality;

Diseases and disorders

Mozambique, 68

Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, 15(n.1)

Natural resources, see Environmental protection

Nepal, 59, 126

Netherlands, 45(n.12)

New Zealand, 20

accuracy of projections, 44, 132

fertility, 84, 85, 86, 87

migration, 156, 160

mortality, 132

Nigeria, 22, 45, 55, 68, 70, 130, 209

North Africa, 21, 22

accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132

fertility, 54, 55

migration, 48, 158, 161, 162

mortality, 116, 132-133

see also specific countries

Northern America, 20, 21, 22, 199, 200, 211

age structure, 45

fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86

migration, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173

transitional fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86

see also Canada;

United States of America

Norway, 45(n.12)

Nutrition, 7, 24, 118, 120, 141

see also Food supply and demand

Older persons, see Elderly persons

Opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 167

Pakistan, 22, 71, 75, 171

Philippines, 75, 171

Poland, 167

Political factors and policy, 3, 188-189

fertility, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101-104, 107

family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78

migration, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184

mortality, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143

see also Family planning;

Government role

Population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29

defined, 27

Portugal, 166

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

Probability distributions, 10, 188, 189, 195-198, 200-206, 216

expert-based, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215

ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215

stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208

see also Time-series analysis

Projection length, see Forecast length

Projection variants, see Scenarios

Qatar, 163

Refugees, see “migration” under Disasters and crises

Regional populations, 12, 16, 17, 19, 20-22

accuracy of projections, 44, 51

definitional issues, 207-208

developing countries, general, 2, 20, 21, 28

elderly, 11

fertility, 5, 54, 55, 85, 205

forecast length, 10, 44

growth rates, 20, 22, 24

HIV/AIDS, 144-145

industrial countries, general, 2, 20, 21, 22

IIASA, 1, 21, 22

migration, 3, 27, 48, 156, 158-159, 160-167, 171, 173, 192-193

momentum, 28

mortality, 24, 115, 116, 127, 132-133

U.N., 20, 21, 22, 197, 198, 205

uncertainty, 197, 198, 199, 203, 205, 207, 210-211, 212

scenarios, 192-193

U.S. Census Bureau, 19, 22

World Bank, 19, 21, 22, 27

see also Developing countries;

Industrial countries;

specific regions

Replacement fertility, 2, 3, 7, 11, 17

above, 24-25

age structure, 27-28

defined, 24

migration and, 172

posttransition fertility, 83, 86, 88, 89

transitional fertility, 72, 77

Romania, 102, 195

Rural areas, 60

fertility, 61, 73, 74, 75

migration, 167, 179-180

Russian Federation, 20, 21, 22, 23, 57, 87, 161, 167, 209

Rwanda, 143, 147, 162, 168, 171

Saudi Arabia, 125

Scenarios, vii, 10, 33, 73, 190-194, 214, 215

age structures, 191, 193-194

fertility, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190, 191, 202

gender factors, 191

high, 25, 33-34, 88, 129, 190, 191, 192-194, 214, 215

low, 33, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 213, 214, 215

medium (standard), 15-16(n.1), 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190, 191, 193, 215

migration, 190, 191, 192-193, 202

mortality, 129, 190, 202

regional populations, 192-193

U.S. Census Bureau, 190, 191, 193-194

vital rates, 191-192

World Bank, 190

See also Variants (U.N.)

Senegal, 55, 68

Sex differences, see Gender factors

Singapore, 124

Smoking, 123, 140

Social and cultural factors, 3

cohort-component method, 30-31

ethnographic research, 78

fertility, 6, 25, 57, 58-63 (passim), 69, 70-71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10), 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172

migration, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183

mortality, 7, 127, 141-143

uncertainty, 32, 188, 189, 198-199

see also Economic factors;

Educational attainment;

Gender factors;

Political factors and policy;

Standards of living

Social Security Administration, see U.S. Social Security Administration

Somalia, 68, 143

South Africa, 125, 144, 162, 171

South America, see Latin America and the Caribbean

South Asia, 22, 211

migration, 158, 161, 163

replacement fertility, 25

South Korea, 58, 71, 90(n.7), 105, 171

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

Soviet Union, 32, 199, 207, 208

fertility, 199

migration, 157, 159, 165, 166, 167, 169, 172

mortality, 128, 137, 142, 143-144, 194, 199

see also Eastern Europe;

former constituent republics

Spain, 87, 166

Sri Lanka, 124

Standards of living

developing countries, general, 58, 59, 69, 124, 125, 170-171, 183

fertility, 58, 59, 69

industrial countries, 119, 124, 170-171, 183

migration, 170-171, 183

mortality, 7, 118, 119, 124, 125, 133, 139, 140, 146

see also Economic factors;

Educational attainment;

Food supply and demand;

Nutrition

Stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208, 213

Stocks of migrants, see Migrant stock

Sub-Saharan Africa, 2, 8, 21

age structure and momentum, 29

fertility, 5, 6, 54, 55, 68, 69-70, 76, 78

growth rate, 22

HIV/AIDS, 8, 47, 55, 69, 133, 141, 143, 144-145, 146, 147, 195

migration, 158, 161, 162, 171

mortality, 8, 47, 115, 116, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 146, 147

see also specific countries

Surveys, 15, 29, 77

Swaziland, 162

Sweden, 87, 115-117, 121, 195

Taiwan, 58, 72

Taxation, 103

Technological factors, 3, 104-106

see also Biomedical research;

Medical science;

Transportation systems

Telecommunications, 9

Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207

Thailand, 58, 59, 71

Time horizon, see Forecast length

Time-series analysis, 13, 30, 204, 206, 214, 215

developing countries,general, 201-202

fertility, 88, 93, 200-202, 204-206

migration, 191

mortality, 138, 140, 148, 200-202

see also Birth-cohort analysis

Transportation systems, 9, 125

Turkey, 125, 166

Uganda, 68, 143

Ukraine, 167

Uncertainty, vii, 3, 9-13 (passim), 16, 17, 32-34, 135, 188-216

country-level forecasts,general, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216

economic factors, 32, 188, 198-199

family planning, 33

gender factors, 32, 191, 197

historical perspectives, 32-33, 194-195

HIV/AIDS, 194, 195, 199, 201

medical science, 32, 33

migration, 156, 178, 190, 192-193;

see also “migration” under Disasters and crises

modeling, 34, 198, 214, 215

mortality, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206;

see also Crisis mortality

social and cultural factors, 32, 188, 189, 198-199

U.N., 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214;

see also Variants (U.N.)

vital rates, 191-192, 198-199

World Bank, 190, 197, 204, 207

see also Accuracy of projections;

Probability distributions;

Scenarios

United Arab Emirates, 48, 163

United Kingdom, 45(n.12), 122, 123

United Nations, vii, 1, 3, 4-5, 11, 16, 18, 19, 60

accuracy of projections, 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135

age structure, 45

baseline error, 42, 43

developing countries, 22

fertility projections, 25, 63-65, 67, 68, 69, 69-70, 75, 76, 86, 87-88

methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 63-65, 87-88, 129, 174-175;

see also Variants (U.N.);

“uncertainty” infra

migration, 27, 165, 168, 174, 184

refugees, 162, 163, 166, 178

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
×

mortality, 26, 129, 130, 131, 135

regional projections, 20, 21, 22, 197, 198, 205

replacement fertility, 25

uncertainty, 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214;

see also Variants (U.N.)

United States of America, 22, 23, 209

accuracy of projections, 44, 45, 132, 134, 135

age structure, 45

fertility, 87, 95-100 (passim), 103

HIV/AIDS, 144

migration, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175, 182(n.12)

mortality, 116, 132, 134, 135, 144, 200-201

Social Security Administration, 134, 189, 191

see also U.S. Census Bureau

Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 169

Urban areas and urbanization, 17

fertility, 57, 60, 70, 72

migration, 179-180

mortality, 119, 120

Uruguay, 124

U.S. Census Bureau, vii, 1, 11, 17

fertility, 64-65, 191

methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 64-65, 130(n.7), 174(n.10), 174, 201

scenario approach, 190, 191, 193-194

migration, 174, 191

mortality, 191

regional projections, 19, 22

U.S. Social Security Administration, 134, 189, 191, 201, 206(n.6)

Variants (U.N.), vii, 33, 190

fertility, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190

high, 25, 33-34, 88, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 214

low, 33, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 213, 214

medium (standard), 15-16(n.1), 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190

migration, 190, 192-193

mortality, 129, 190

see also Scenarios

Venezuela, 163, 164

Vital rates

cohort-component method, 30

scenarios, 191-192

uncertainty, 191-192, 198-199

see also Fertility;

Growth rates;

Migration;

Mortality

Vital registration, 12, 77, 122

Weather, mortality and, 118, 128, 194

see also Famine

Western Europe, 2, 16, 20, 21, 22, 24, 211

age structure, 28, 45, 136

fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86, 199

migration, 8, 27, 159, 161, 164, 165-66, 170, 172, 173

mortality, 116, 118, 119, 136, 199

see also specific countries

Women, see Fertility;

Gender factors

World Bank, vii, 1, 4, 11, 16, 17-18, 38(n.3)

accuracy of projections, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135

baseline error, 43

fertility, 64, 65, 67, 69-70, 71, 75, 88

HIV/AIDS, 144, 145

methods of projection, 29, 64, 88, 129-130, 175, 197, 204, 207

migration, 168, 175

mortality, 26, 129-130, 131, 135, 144, 145

regional projections, 19, 21, 22, 27

scenario approach, 190

uncertainty, 190, 197, 204, 207

World Wide Web, see Internet

Y

Young persons, 3, 28

accuracy of projections, 38, 45, 49, 50-51

developing countries, 27

migration, 49, 172-173, 175

mortality, 117, 122

see also Infants

Yugoslavia, 166, 172

Zambia, 144

Suggested Citation:"Index." National Research Council. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9828.
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Next: Appendix A: Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population »
Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population Get This Book
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Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question.

Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened.

Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail.

How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections.

The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

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