Index

Abortion, 5, 57, 102

Accuracy of projections, vii, 1-2, 3-4, 10, 12, 17, 34

age structures, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148

elderly persons, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149

young persons, 38, 45, 49, 50-51

Australia, 44, 132

baseline data, 29, 42-44, 48, 49, 51

Canada, 44, 45(n.12), 132

country-level forecasts, general, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133

developing countries, general, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135

fertility, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91

historical perspectives, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176

industrial countries, general, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177

Japan, 44

Middle East, 44, 48, 132-133

migration, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183

mortality, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149

New Zealand, 44, 132

North Africa, 44, 48, 132

past projections, 32-33, 37-52

population size factors, 44, 46

regional, general, 44, 51

U.N., 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135

U.S.A., 44, 45, 132, 134, 135

World Bank, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135

see also Forecast length;

Uncertainty

Afghanistan, 126, 163, 168, 171

Africa, 2, 20, 199, 200, 211

fertility, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78

HIV/AIDS, 69, 128, 141, 174

migration, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174

mortality, 24, 69, 124

see also Middle East;

North Africa;

Sub-Saharan Africa;

specific countries

Age structure, 1, 2, 3, 23, 198

accuracy of projections, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148

China, 45

cohort-component method, 29, 30

developing countries, general, 23, 27, 28-29, 45

fertility, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101

childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190

marital age, 57, 72-73

replacement, 27-28

growth rates and, 27-29



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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Index Abortion, 5, 57, 102 Accuracy of projections, vii, 1-2, 3-4, 10, 12, 17, 34 age structures, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148 elderly persons, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149 young persons, 38, 45, 49, 50-51 Australia, 44, 132 baseline data, 29, 42-44, 48, 49, 51 Canada, 44, 45(n.12), 132 country-level forecasts, general, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133 developing countries, general, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135 fertility, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91 historical perspectives, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176 industrial countries, general, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177 Japan, 44 Middle East, 44, 48, 132-133 migration, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183 mortality, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149 New Zealand, 44, 132 North Africa, 44, 48, 132 past projections, 32-33, 37-52 population size factors, 44, 46 regional, general, 44, 51 U.N., 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135 U.S.A., 44, 45, 132, 134, 135 World Bank, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135 see also Forecast length; Uncertainty Afghanistan, 126, 163, 168, 171 Africa, 2, 20, 199, 200, 211 fertility, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78 HIV/AIDS, 69, 128, 141, 174 migration, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174 mortality, 24, 69, 124 see also Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; specific countries Age structure, 1, 2, 3, 23, 198 accuracy of projections, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148 China, 45 cohort-component method, 29, 30 developing countries, general, 23, 27, 28-29, 45 fertility, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101 childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190 marital age, 57, 72-73 replacement, 27-28 growth rates and, 27-29

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population India, 45 industrial countries, general, 28, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122 elderly persons, 2, 121-122 migration, 27-28, 49, 175, 181, 183, 191 mortality, 7, 23, 49, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122, 128, 135-138, 148, 197 elderly persons, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148 young persons, 117, 122 population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29 scenarios, 191, 193-194 UN forecasts, 45 Western Europe, 28, 45, 136 see also Birth-cohort analysis; Elderly persons; Infants; Population momentum; Young persons Aggregation, 10, 38, 51, 189, 192 AIDS, see HIV/AIDS Albania, 84, 87, 167 Algeria, 125 Angola, 70 Argentina, 89, 124, 139, 156, 163, 164, 171 Asia, 2, 20, 199, 200 fertility, 25, 53, 54-55, 74, 78, 86 historical perspectives, 24 HIV/AIDS, 174, 195 marital age, 57 migration, 8, 158, 160, 161, 162-163, 164, 165, 167, 171, 173 mortality, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132 replacement fertility, 25 see also East Asia and the Pacific; Middle East; specific countries Australia, 20, 208, 209, 211 accuracy of projections, 44, 132 fertility, 84, 85, 86 migration, 8, 156, 160, 161, 164-165, 170, 175 mortality, 116, 132 Bangladesh, 5, 22, 57, 59, 61, 70, 90(n.7), 171 Baseline data, 29, 42-43, 48, 49, 51 Behavioral factors, 194 HIV/AIDS, 143-144 mortality, 7, 123, 140-141, 143-144 smoking, 123, 140 see also Family planning; Social and cultural factors Biomedical research, 13, 32, 33, 104-106, 120, 122, 123, 127, 147, 148-149 Birth-cohort analysis, 48-49 cohort-component method, 3, 27, 29-32, 201 fertility, 29-30, 31, 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12) life expectancy, 114(n.1), 149 Birth control, see Abortion; Contraception; Family planning Birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106 Births, see Fertility Bosnia-Herzegovina, 167, 168, 171 Botswana, 162 Brazil, 22, 55, 71, 125, 156, 164, 171, 209 Bulgaria, 167 Bureau of the Census, see U.S. Census Bureau Burkina Faso, 162 Burma, 125 Burundi, 143 Cambodia, 126, 142-143, 163 Canada accuracy of projections, 44, 45(n.12), 132 age structure, 45(n.12) migration, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175 mortality, 132 Caribbean region, see Latin America and the Caribbean Census Bureau, see U.S. Census Bureau Censuses, 12 age structures, 45 baseline error, 42 cohort-component method, 29 migration, 157(n.1) Children, see Infants; Young persons Chile, 124 China, 22-23, 208, 209 age structure, 45 fertility, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194 migration, 158, 169, 183 mortality, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194 Climate, see Weather Cohorts, see Birth-cohort analysis Colombia, 72, 125 Communications technology, see Telecommunications Component rates, general, 29-30, 31, 46-50 see also Fertility; Growth rates; Migration; Mortality; Vital rates

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Computer applications, 30, 32, 34 Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207 Confidence intervals, see Probability distributions Congo, 22, 23, 68, 70 Contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69, 104, 199 see also Abortion; Family planning Costa Rica, 55, 58, 124 Côte d'Ivoire, 55, 68, 162, 171 Country-level forecasts, general, 16, 17 accuracy, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133 fertility, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91 mortality, 24, 114, 115, 117, 131-133, 138 uncertainty, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216 see also Developing countries; Industrial countries; Migration; specific countries Crisis migration, see “migration” under Disasters and crises Crisis mortality, 8, 9, 10, 118-119, 120-121, 127-128, 135, 137, 141-148, 149 famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162 influenza, 119, 128, 143, 147 political upheaval, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143 see also HIV/AIDS Cuba, 124 Cultural factors, see Social and cultural factors Czech Republic, 167 Death rates, see Mortality Definitional issues forecast, 15-16(n.1) growth rates, 24 life expectancy, 114(n.1) migration, 184 population momentum, 27 population projection, 15(n.1) posttransition fertility, 83 regions, 207-208 replacement fertility, 24 Denmark, 45(n.12) Developed countries, see Industrial countries; specific countries and regions Developing countries, 15, 22-23, 211 accuracy of projections, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135 age structure, 23, 27, 28-29, 45 fertility, 5, 85 abortion, 5, 57 contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69 migration, 172-173 replacement, 24-25, 64 transitional, 34, 53-78 migration, 158, 159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184 mortality, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139-141 regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 28 standards of living, 58, 59, 69, 124, 125, 170-171, 183 time-series analysis, 201-202 see also specific countries and regions Diet, see Nutrition Disasters and crises, 195 famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162 migration, 9, 10, 13, 48, 50, 162-168 (passim), 171-172, 178, 184 see also Crisis mortality Diseases and disorders, 26, 47, 118, 119-120, 122, 123, 124, 135-136, 148-149, 188, 194 infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105 migration, 174 transitional fertility, 59 see also HIV/AIDS; Medical science; Mortality East Asia and the Pacific, 21, 22, 211 age structure, 23 fertility, 54-55, 85 migration, 158-159 Eastern Europe, 211 fertility, 85, 101, 199 HIV/AIDS, 31 migration, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173 mortality, 8, 128, 194, 199 see also specific countries East Timor, 126 Economic factors, 3 cohort-component method, 30-31 fertility, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim), 70-76 (passim), 78, 98, 101-102, 107, 108 migration, 9, 162, 163-164, 166, 167, 169, 171, 179-182 mortality, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149 opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population replacement fertility, 25 taxation, 103 uncertainty, 32, 188, 198-199 see also Developing countries; Employment factors; Industrial countries; Standards of living Educational attainment, fertility and, 58, 59, 69, 72, 199 literacy, 59, 62, 70, 75 women, 72, 140 Egypt, 125, 209 Elderly persons, 2, 8, 11, 13, 23, 194-195, 198 accuracy of projections, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149 industrial countries, 2, 121-122 migration, 175 mortality, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148 transitional fertility, 59 El Salvador, 125, 143 Emigration and immigration, see Migration Employment factors, 194 migration, 162, 166, 168, 169, 178, 179-181 women, 58, 100-101 Energy supply and demand, 1, 189 England, see United Kingdom Environmental feedback, 31-32, 184 Environmental protection, 1, 13, 16, 188, 189 Errors, see Accuracy of projections; Uncertainty Ethiopia, 22, 23 Europe, see Eastern Europe; Western Europe; specific countries Expert-based probabilistic projections, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215 Ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215 Family planning, 3, 33, 56-57, 58, 60, 62, 69, 78, 94 genetic selection, 105-106 government programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78 international programs, 56-57, 74, 76 proception technology, 104-105 sex selection, 105 uncertainty, 33 see also Abortion; Contraception Famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162 Females, see Fertility; Gender factors Fertility, viii, 2, 3, 5-7, 17, 24, 34 accuracy of projections, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91 Africa, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78 age structure and, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101 childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190 marriage age, 57, 72-73 replacement, 27-28 Asia, general, 25, 53, 54-55, 74, 78, 86 Australia, 84, 85, 86 baseline data, 48, 49 birth-cohort analysis, 29-30, 31, 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12) birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106 China, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194 cohort-component method, 29-30, 31 country-level forecasts, general, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91 definitional issues, 24, 83 developing countries, general, 5, 85 abortion, 5, 57 contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69 migration, 172-173 replacement, 24-25, 64 transitional, 34, 53-78 East Asia, 54-55, 85 Eastern Europe, 85, 101, 199 economic factors, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim), 70-76 (passim), 78, 98, 101-102, 107, 108 educational attainment, 58, 59, 69, 70, 72, 75, 140, 199 elderly persons, 59 forecast length, 13, 41, 46, 65, 66, 90, 91 gender factors, 58, 70, 72, 100-101, 105, 140 HIV/AIDS and, 55, 69, 78 IIASA, 19, 65, 69, 202 illustrative forecasts, 204-206 India, 5, 67 industrial countries, general, 2, 5, 11, 13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206 migration and, 172-173 posttransition, 6, 83-108, 190 infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105 Japan, 73, 84, 85, 86, 87, 98 Latin America and the Caribbean, 25, 53, 54, 55, 61, 71, 84, 85, 86

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population marriage and marital status, 6, 32, 41, 57, 70, 72-73, 78, 87, 92, 99-100, 175 methods of projection, 63-68, 87-88, 94(n.12) Middle East, 54, 55, 60, 61, 70 migration and, 2, 71, 172-173, 205-206 modeling, 13, 64, 65 mortality and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 194, 199 New Zealand, 84, 85, 86, 87 North Africa, 54, 55 Northern America, 53, 84, 85, 86 opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106 political factors, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101-104, 107 family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78 population projection defined, 15(n.1) posttransition, 6-7, 34, 83-108, 190 regional populations, general, 5, 54, 55, 85, 205 rural areas, 61, 73, 74, 75 social and cultural factors, 6, 25, 57, 58-63 (passim), 69, 70-71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10), 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172 South Asia, 25 Soviet Union, 199 standards of living and, 58, 59, 69 Sub-Saharan Africa, 5, 6, 54, 55, 68, 69-70, 76, 78 time-series analysis, 88, 93, 200-202, 204-206 transitional, 34, 53-78, 83, 106, 190 U.N., 25, 63-65, 67, 68, 69-70, 75, 76, 86, 87-88 uncertainty, 4, 32, 188, 190, 194-195, 196, 201, 202, 204-206 scenarios/variants, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190, 191, 202 urban areas, 57, 60, 70, 72 U.S.A., 87, 95-100 (passim), 103 U.S. Census Bureau, 64-65, 191 Western Europe, 53, 84, 85, 86, 199 World Bank, 64, 65, 67, 69-70, 71, 75, 88 see also Abortion; Contraception; Family planning; Higher-order births; Replacement fertility Food supply and demand, 1, 32, 189 famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162 Malthusian theory, 15 mortality and, 118 see also Nutrition Forecast length, 5, 12, 38, 41-42, 50, 189-190, 192, 206, 208, 209, 214, 215 baseline error, 43, 48 cohort-component method, 29-32 (passim) fertility, 13, 41, 46, 65, 66, 90, 91 migration, 41, 176-177 mortality, 13, 41, 122, 129-130, 131, 136, 137 regional, 10, 44 France, 178, 209 Gabon, 89-90 Gaza Strip, 163 Gender factors, 3, 100-101 cohort-component method, 29, 30 education of women, 72, 140 employment of women, 58, 100-101 fertility, 58, 70, 72, 100-101, 105, 140 migration, 175, 181, 191 mortality, 26, 115-117, 121, 122, 129, 197 scenarios, 191 sex selection of children, 105 uncertainty, 32, 191, 197 Genetic factors, 105-106 Germany, 87, 98-99, 103, 157, 178, 209 Ghana, 55, 68, 70, 125 Government role, 5-6 family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78 HIV/AIDS, 143 migration, 178 taxation, 103 see also Political factors and policy; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Social Security Administration Greece, 87, 166 Growth rates, vii, 19, 206 age structure, 27-29 defined, 24 developing countries, 22 forecast length, 42 historical perspectives, 15, 17-19, 24, 42 industrial countries, 22 Malthusian theory, 15, 31 regional, 20, 22, 24 see also Fertility; Migration; Mortality; Population momentum Guinea, 162

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Haiti, 126 Health factors, 41, 47, 61, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 140-141 migration, 173-174 see also Diseases and disorders; Medical science; Mortality Higher-order births, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106 Historical perspectives, vii, 2, 5, 15, 18 accuracy of past projections, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176 childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96 cohort-component method, 30, 31, 32 ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215 fertility, 5, 6 posttransition, 84, 86-87, 89-108 transitional, 34, 53-78 forecast length, 41-42 growth rates, 15, 17-19, 24, 42 Malthusian theory, 15, 31 migration, 8, 9, 156-168, 171, 172, 175-177, 181-182, 183, 184 mortality, 24, 114, 115-129, 130-134, 139, 141-145, 146, 147 policy feedback, 33 uncertainty, 32-33, 194-195 U.N. projections, 4-5 HIV/AIDS, 10, 31, 32, 69, 126, 127, 128, 133, 135, 143-145, 146, 149 Africa, general, 69, 128, 141, 174 Asia, general, 174, 195 behavioral factors, 143-144 Eastern Europe, 31 fertility and, 55, 69, 78 migration and, 174 regional impacts, general, 144-145 Sub-Saharan Africa, 8, 47, 55, 69, 133, 141, 143, 144-145, 146, 147, 195 uncertainty, 194, 195, 199, 201 U.S.A., 144 World Bank, 144, 145 Hungary, 167 Iceland, 87 IIASA, see International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Immigration Act (U.S.), 164 Immigration and emigration, see Migration Immigration Reform and Control Act, 164(n.5), 165 India, 22-23, 209 age structure, 45 fertility, 5, 67 migration, 171, 172 mortality, 125 Indonesia, 22, 59, 71, 125, 209 Industrial countries, 2, 12, 211 accuracy of projections, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177 age structure, 28, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122 elderly persons, 2, 121-122 fertility, 2, 5, 11, 13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206 migration and, 172-173 posttransition, 6, 83-108, 190 growth rate, 22 migration, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180 mortality, 7, 8, 115, 117-123, 125, 128, 132, 135, 139 regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 22 standards of living, 119, 124, 170-171, 183 see also specific countries and regions Infants, 4, 45, 51 mortality, 48, 57, 63, 72, 114, 120, 125, 127 Influenza, 119, 128, 143, 147 International Conference on Population and Development, 74 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 11, 17-18, 19, 202 baseline data, 51 fertility, 19, 65, 69, 202 methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 65 mortality, 19 regional projections, 1, 21, 22 International organizations, general, 16 baseline data, 51 family planning programs, 56-57, 74, 76 see also specific organizations Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207 Iran, 171 Iraq, 171 Israel, 87, 124 Italy, 6, 87, 96, 97, 99-100, 166 Ivory Coast, see Côte d'Ivoire Japan, 16, 20, 22, 23, 209 accuracy of projections, 44 fertility, 73, 84, 85, 86, 87, 98

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population historical perspectives, 24 migration, 8, 164 mortality, 7, 114, 115 Jordan, 163 Kazakhstan, 167, 171 Kenya, 125, 144 Kuwait, 163, 168, 171 Laos, 126 Latin America and the Caribbean, 2, 20, 21, 22, 24, 199, 211 age structure, 23 fertility, 25, 53, 54, 55, 61, 71, 84, 85, 86 migration, 159, 161, 163-164, 173 mortality, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132, 146 replacement fertility, 25 see also specific countries Lebanon, 163 Lesotho, 162 Liberia, 48, 70, 143, 147, 162, 168 Libya, 162 Life expectancy, see Mortality Literacy, 59, 62, 70, 75 Living standards, see Standards of living Macedonia, 87 Malawi, 7, 68, 114 Malaysia, 87, 171 Males, see Gender factors Mali, 162 Malthus, Thomas, 15, 31 Marriage and marital status, 6, 32, 41, 57, 70, 72-73, 78, 87, 92, 99-100, 175 Mass media, 5, 16, 71 Mauritius, 125 Medical science, 3, 13 mortality and, 7, 26, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 127, 135, 136-137, 147, 194 uncertainty, 32, 33 see also Biomedical research; Contraception; Diseases and disorders Men, see Gender factors Methods of projection, 17, 29-32, 51 aggregation, 10, 38, 51, 189, 192 averaging percentage errors, 39-40 cohort-component method, 3, 27, 29-32, 201 fertility, 63-68, 87-88, 94(n.12) migration, 174-182, 184 mortality, 138, 140, 148, 200-202 probability distributions, 10, 188, 189, 195-198, 200-206, 216 expert-based, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215 ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215 stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208 time-series analysis, see Time-series analysis see also Accuracy of projections; Forecast length; Models and modeling; Scenarios; Uncertainty; “methods of project” under International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; United Nations; U.S. Census Bureau; World Bank Mexico, 27, 55, 71, 164, 171, 181, 209 Middle East, 21, 22, 60, 211 accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132-133 age structure and momentum, 29 fertility, 54, 55, 60, 61, 70 migration, 48, 156, 163 mortality, 115, 116, 132-133 see also specific countries Migrant stock, 156-167 (passim) Migration, viii, 3, 8-9, 11, 12, 17, 24, 26-27, 34, 156-184 accuracy of projections, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183 Africa, general, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174 age structure, 27-28, 49, 181, 183, 191 elderly persons, 175 young persons, 49, 172-173, 175 Asia, general, 8, 158, 160, 161, 162-163, 164, 165, 167, 171, 173 Australia, 8, 156, 160, 161, 164-165, 170, 175 baseline data, 48, 49 Canada, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175 censuses, 157(n.1) China, 158, 169, 183 cohort-component method, 29, 30, 31 crisis, 9, 10, 13, 48, 50, 162-168 (passim), 171-172, 178, 184 defined, 184 developing countries, general, 158, 159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184 disease factors, 174

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population East Asia, 158-159 Eastern Europe, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173 economic factors, 9, 162, 163-164, 166, 167, 169, 171, 179-182 employment factors, 162, 166, 168, 169, 178, 179-181 fertility and, 2, 71, 172-173, 205-206 forecast length, 41, 176-177 gender factors, 175, 181, 191 growth rates and, 26-27 health factors, 173-174 historical perspectives, 8, 9, 156-168, 171, 172, 175-177, 181-182, 183, 184 HIV/AIDS and, 174 India, 171, 172 individual choices, 41 industrial countries, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180 Japan, 8, 164 Latin America and the Caribbean, 159, 161, 163-164, 173 methods of projection, 174-182, 184 Middle East, 48, 156, 163 modeling, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184 mortality and, 172-173 New Zealand, 156, 160 North Africa, 48, 158, 161, 162 Northern America, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173 political factors, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184 population projection defined, 15(n.1) regional populations, general, 3, 27, 48, 156, 158-159, 160-167, 171, 173, 192-193 rural areas, 167, 179-180 social and cultural factors, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183 South Asia, 158, 161, 163 Soviet Union, 157, 159, 165, 166, 167, 169, 172 standards of living, 170-171, 183 Sub-Saharan Africa, 158, 161, 162, 171 theory, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184 time-series analysis, 191 U.N., 27, 165, 168, 174, 184 refugees, 162, 163, 166, 178 uncertainty, 32, 156, 178, 188, 190, 192-193, 196, 202, 205-206 scenarios/variants, 190, 191, 192-193, 202 urban areas, 179-180 U.S.A., 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175, 182(n.12) U.S. Census Bureau, 174, 191 see also “migration” under Disasters and crises Models and modeling, 12, 13 cohort-component method, 30, 92(n.9) ex post analysis, 207-208, 215 fertility, 13, 64, 65 migration, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184 mortality, 135, 136 stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208, 213 uncertainty, 34, 198, 214, 215 see also Methods of projection; Scenarios Moldova, 87 Momentum, see Population momentum Mortality, viii, 3, 7-8, 11, 17, 26, 34, 114-149 accuracy of projections, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149 Africa, 24, 69, 124 age structure and, 7, 23, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148 elderly persons, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148 young persons, 117, 122 Asia, general, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132 Australia, 116, 132 baseline data, 48, 49 behavioral factors, 7, 123, 140-141, 143-144 birth-cohort analysis, 114(n.1), 149 Canada, 132 China, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194 cohort-component method, 29-30, 31 country-level forecasts, general, 24, 114, 115, 117, 131-133, 138 definitional issues, 15(n.1), 114(n.1) developing countries, general, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139-141 Eastern Europe, 8, 128, 194, 199 economic factors, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149 fertility and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 199 194,

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population food supply, 118; see also Famine forecast length, 13, 41, 122, 129-130, 131, 136, 137 gender factors, 26, 115-117, 121, 122, 129, 197 historical perspectives, 24, 114, 115-129, 130-134, 139, 141-145, 146, 147 IIASA, 19 India, 125 industrial countries, 7, 8, 115, 117-123, 125, 128, 132, 135, 139 infant, 48, 57, 63, 114, 120, 125, 127 Japan, 7, 114, 115 Latin America and the Caribbean, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132, 146 medical science and, 7, 26, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 127, 135, 136-137, 147, 194 methods of projection, 138, 140, 148, 200-202 Middle East, 115, 116, 132-133 migration and, 173-174 modeling, 135, 136 North Africa, 116, 132-133 political factors, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143 population projection defined, 15(n.1) regional populations, general, 24, 115, 116, 127, 132-133 social and cultural factors, 7, 127, 141-143 Soviet Union, 128, 137, 142, 143-144, 194, 199 standards of living, 7, 118, 119, 124, 125, 133, 139, 140, 146 Sub-Saharan Africa, 8, 47, 115, 116, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 146, 147 time-series analysis, 138, 140, 148, 200-202 transitional fertility, 57-58, 62, 63, 76 U.N., 26, 129, 130, 131, 135 uncertainty, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206 scenarios/variants, 129, 190, 202 urban areas, 119, 120 U.S.A., 116, 132, 134, 135, 144, 200-201 U.S. Census Bureau, 191 weather factors, 118, 128, 194; see also Famine Western Europe, 116, 118, 119, 136, 199 World Bank, 26, 129-130, 131, 135, 144, 145 see also Crisis mortality; Diseases and disorders Mozambique, 68 Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, 15(n.1) Natural resources, see Environmental protection Nepal, 59, 126 Netherlands, 45(n.12) New Zealand, 20 accuracy of projections, 44, 132 fertility, 84, 85, 86, 87 migration, 156, 160 mortality, 132 Nigeria, 22, 45, 55, 68, 70, 130, 209 North Africa, 21, 22 accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132 fertility, 54, 55 migration, 48, 158, 161, 162 mortality, 116, 132-133 see also specific countries Northern America, 20, 21, 22, 199, 200, 211 age structure, 45 fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86 migration, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173 transitional fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86 see also Canada; United States of America Norway, 45(n.12) Nutrition, 7, 24, 118, 120, 141 see also Food supply and demand Older persons, see Elderly persons Opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 167 Pakistan, 22, 71, 75, 171 Philippines, 75, 171 Poland, 167 Political factors and policy, 3, 188-189 fertility, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101-104, 107 family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78 migration, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184 mortality, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143 see also Family planning; Government role Population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29 defined, 27 Portugal, 166

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Probability distributions, 10, 188, 189, 195-198, 200-206, 216 expert-based, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215 ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215 stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208 see also Time-series analysis Projection length, see Forecast length Projection variants, see Scenarios Qatar, 163 Refugees, see “migration” under Disasters and crises Regional populations, 12, 16, 17, 19, 20-22 accuracy of projections, 44, 51 definitional issues, 207-208 developing countries, general, 2, 20, 21, 28 elderly, 11 fertility, 5, 54, 55, 85, 205 forecast length, 10, 44 growth rates, 20, 22, 24 HIV/AIDS, 144-145 industrial countries, general, 2, 20, 21, 22 IIASA, 1, 21, 22 migration, 3, 27, 48, 156, 158-159, 160-167, 171, 173, 192-193 momentum, 28 mortality, 24, 115, 116, 127, 132-133 U.N., 20, 21, 22, 197, 198, 205 uncertainty, 197, 198, 199, 203, 205, 207, 210-211, 212 scenarios, 192-193 U.S. Census Bureau, 19, 22 World Bank, 19, 21, 22, 27 see also Developing countries; Industrial countries; specific regions Replacement fertility, 2, 3, 7, 11, 17 above, 24-25 age structure, 27-28 defined, 24 migration and, 172 posttransition fertility, 83, 86, 88, 89 transitional fertility, 72, 77 Romania, 102, 195 Rural areas, 60 fertility, 61, 73, 74, 75 migration, 167, 179-180 Russian Federation, 20, 21, 22, 23, 57, 87, 161, 167, 209 Rwanda, 143, 147, 162, 168, 171 Saudi Arabia, 125 Scenarios, vii, 10, 33, 73, 190-194, 214, 215 age structures, 191, 193-194 fertility, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190, 191, 202 gender factors, 191 high, 25, 33-34, 88, 129, 190, 191, 192-194, 214, 215 low, 33, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 213, 214, 215 medium (standard), 15-16(n.1), 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190, 191, 193, 215 migration, 190, 191, 192-193, 202 mortality, 129, 190, 202 regional populations, 192-193 U.S. Census Bureau, 190, 191, 193-194 vital rates, 191-192 World Bank, 190 See also Variants (U.N.) Senegal, 55, 68 Sex differences, see Gender factors Singapore, 124 Smoking, 123, 140 Social and cultural factors, 3 cohort-component method, 30-31 ethnographic research, 78 fertility, 6, 25, 57, 58-63 (passim), 69, 70-71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10), 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172 migration, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183 mortality, 7, 127, 141-143 uncertainty, 32, 188, 189, 198-199 see also Economic factors; Educational attainment; Gender factors; Political factors and policy; Standards of living Social Security Administration, see U.S. Social Security Administration Somalia, 68, 143 South Africa, 125, 144, 162, 171 South America, see Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia, 22, 211 migration, 158, 161, 163 replacement fertility, 25 South Korea, 58, 71, 90(n.7), 105, 171

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Soviet Union, 32, 199, 207, 208 fertility, 199 migration, 157, 159, 165, 166, 167, 169, 172 mortality, 128, 137, 142, 143-144, 194, 199 see also Eastern Europe; former constituent republics Spain, 87, 166 Sri Lanka, 124 Standards of living developing countries, general, 58, 59, 69, 124, 125, 170-171, 183 fertility, 58, 59, 69 industrial countries, 119, 124, 170-171, 183 migration, 170-171, 183 mortality, 7, 118, 119, 124, 125, 133, 139, 140, 146 see also Economic factors; Educational attainment; Food supply and demand; Nutrition Stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208, 213 Stocks of migrants, see Migrant stock Sub-Saharan Africa, 2, 8, 21 age structure and momentum, 29 fertility, 5, 6, 54, 55, 68, 69-70, 76, 78 growth rate, 22 HIV/AIDS, 8, 47, 55, 69, 133, 141, 143, 144-145, 146, 147, 195 migration, 158, 161, 162, 171 mortality, 8, 47, 115, 116, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 146, 147 see also specific countries Surveys, 15, 29, 77 Swaziland, 162 Sweden, 87, 115-117, 121, 195 Taiwan, 58, 72 Taxation, 103 Technological factors, 3, 104-106 see also Biomedical research; Medical science; Transportation systems Telecommunications, 9 Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207 Thailand, 58, 59, 71 Time horizon, see Forecast length Time-series analysis, 13, 30, 204, 206, 214, 215 developing countries,general, 201-202 fertility, 88, 93, 200-202, 204-206 migration, 191 mortality, 138, 140, 148, 200-202 see also Birth-cohort analysis Transportation systems, 9, 125 Turkey, 125, 166 Uganda, 68, 143 Ukraine, 167 Uncertainty, vii, 3, 9-13 (passim), 16, 17, 32-34, 135, 188-216 country-level forecasts,general, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216 economic factors, 32, 188, 198-199 family planning, 33 gender factors, 32, 191, 197 historical perspectives, 32-33, 194-195 HIV/AIDS, 194, 195, 199, 201 medical science, 32, 33 migration, 156, 178, 190, 192-193; see also “migration” under Disasters and crises modeling, 34, 198, 214, 215 mortality, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206; see also Crisis mortality social and cultural factors, 32, 188, 189, 198-199 U.N., 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214; see also Variants (U.N.) vital rates, 191-192, 198-199 World Bank, 190, 197, 204, 207 see also Accuracy of projections; Probability distributions; Scenarios United Arab Emirates, 48, 163 United Kingdom, 45(n.12), 122, 123 United Nations, vii, 1, 3, 4-5, 11, 16, 18, 19, 60 accuracy of projections, 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135 age structure, 45 baseline error, 42, 43 developing countries, 22 fertility projections, 25, 63-65, 67, 68, 69, 69-70, 75, 76, 86, 87-88 methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 63-65, 87-88, 129, 174-175; see also Variants (U.N.); “uncertainty” infra migration, 27, 165, 168, 174, 184 refugees, 162, 163, 166, 178

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population mortality, 26, 129, 130, 131, 135 regional projections, 20, 21, 22, 197, 198, 205 replacement fertility, 25 uncertainty, 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214; see also Variants (U.N.) United States of America, 22, 23, 209 accuracy of projections, 44, 45, 132, 134, 135 age structure, 45 fertility, 87, 95-100 (passim), 103 HIV/AIDS, 144 migration, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175, 182(n.12) mortality, 116, 132, 134, 135, 144, 200-201 Social Security Administration, 134, 189, 191 see also U.S. Census Bureau Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 169 Urban areas and urbanization, 17 fertility, 57, 60, 70, 72 migration, 179-180 mortality, 119, 120 Uruguay, 124 U.S. Census Bureau, vii, 1, 11, 17 fertility, 64-65, 191 methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 64-65, 130(n.7), 174(n.10), 174, 201 scenario approach, 190, 191, 193-194 migration, 174, 191 mortality, 191 regional projections, 19, 22 U.S. Social Security Administration, 134, 189, 191, 201, 206(n.6) Variants (U.N.), vii, 33, 190 fertility, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190 high, 25, 33-34, 88, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 214 low, 33, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 213, 214 medium (standard), 15-16(n.1), 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190 migration, 190, 192-193 mortality, 129, 190 see also Scenarios Venezuela, 163, 164 Vital rates cohort-component method, 30 scenarios, 191-192 uncertainty, 191-192, 198-199 see also Fertility; Growth rates; Migration; Mortality Vital registration, 12, 77, 122 Weather, mortality and, 118, 128, 194 see also Famine Western Europe, 2, 16, 20, 21, 22, 24, 211 age structure, 28, 45, 136 fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86, 199 migration, 8, 27, 159, 161, 164, 165-66, 170, 172, 173 mortality, 116, 118, 119, 136, 199 see also specific countries Women, see Fertility; Gender factors World Bank, vii, 1, 4, 11, 16, 17-18, 38(n.3) accuracy of projections, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135 baseline error, 43 fertility, 64, 65, 67, 69-70, 71, 75, 88 HIV/AIDS, 144, 145 methods of projection, 29, 64, 88, 129-130, 175, 197, 204, 207 migration, 168, 175 mortality, 26, 129-130, 131, 135, 144, 145 regional projections, 19, 21, 22, 27 scenario approach, 190 uncertainty, 190, 197, 204, 207 World Wide Web, see Internet Y Young persons, 3, 28 accuracy of projections, 38, 45, 49, 50-51 developing countries, 27 migration, 49, 172-173, 175 mortality, 117, 122 see also Infants Yugoslavia, 166, 172 Zambia, 144