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OCR for page 17
Chapter 3
SOCIOECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE
SUMMARY
Electrochemical devices and processes represent a major market force
in the United States today. They affect our society in three general
ways: (a) as a major industry for materials and chemicals production,
(b) as an enabling technology for other industries (for example,
corrosion control and batteries for vehicles), and (c) as a means of
promoting personal well-being over and above economic considerations
(for example, in the field of health care). This chapter identifies
major socioeconomic contributions, both current and future; these
include metal winning, chemicals and semiconductor production,
electroplating, corrosion cost avoidance, batteries and fuel cells,
sensors (for health systems, industrial use, home applications), and
membranes. The current domestic annual electrochemical markets are
nearly $30 billion, excluding corrosion; new markets that seem likely to
develop in the period from 1990 to 2000 are estimated at an additional
$20 billion annually.
INTRODUCTION
This chapter identifies socioeconomic benefits in major electro-
chemical market sectors, both present and future. These sectors include
energy, industry, national security, and health, among others. The
domestic economic contribution, excluding costs of corrosion, approaches
$30 billion per year, or about three-fourths of 1 percent of the gross
national product (which amounted to $3800 billion in 1984~. Within a
decade, substantially greater sales are projected for batteries, fuel
cells, semiconductors, sensors, corrosion control, and membranes. In
addition, introduction of new technology could slow the loss of major
markets in electrochemical production of metals and chemicals and in
electroplating.
Impacts of electrochemical technology are seen in three areas. The
first involves the economic value of materials produced by electro-
chemical methods. A summary of market estimates is given in Tables 3-1,
3-2, and 3-3 and in Figure 3-1; the dollar amounts represent conser-
vative dollar values, since only a few selected markets were evaluated
and the estimate for each one was based only on verifiable sales. In
17
OCR for page 18
18
TABLE 3-1 Production of Major Electrochemicals in the United States
in 1984
Domestic
ProductionApproximate
(thousands ofPrice per Annual Market
Producttons per year)Ton ($) ($ billion)
Aluminum4,0001~000 4.0
Caustic1 3,000250 3.3
Chlorine12,000200 2.4
Copper (electrolytic)1,5001,500 2.2
Magnesium1302,500 0.3
Soda ash8,300100 0.8
Zinc (electrolytic)2601,000 0.3
Total 1 3.3
SOURCE: Reference 3.
TABLE 3-2
Electrochem
Estimated Current Major Domestic
cat Markets
Market Sector
Annual Market
($ billion)
Semiconductor production and processing
Metals and chemicals
Batteries
Electroplating
Corrosion control (see text)
Total
13
4
10
28
SOURCE: References 2, 3, 10, and 12.
OCR for page 19
19
TABLE 3-3 Estimates of New or Increased Domestic Markets for
Selected Electrochemical Products
Application
Annual Market,
1990-2000
($ billion)
Batteries and Fuel Cells
Vehicles and stationary energy storage
Utility power generation
Semiconductor Production and Processing
Microelectronic devices
Sensors
Health care
Industrial--food and chemical processing
Home and auto
Electrochemical Industries
Production of basic metals and chemicalsa 3
Corrosion Control
Cost avoidance with new technologyb
Membranes
Various processes--e."., electrodialysis,
retrofit for chloralkali plants
Total
2-10
1 -2
2
11-2
11-2
1 -2
4
13-24
aCommittee estimate of value of retention of domestic industries
through electrochemistry advances leading to improved international
competitiveness.
bCommittee estimate of corrosion costs that can be avoided with
new electrochemical technology (unavailable today); the estimate is
1 to 2 percent of the total annual unavoidable cost (1~.
SOURCE: Except for electrochemical industries and corrosion control,
information was obtained from sources listed in reference 12.
OCR for page 20
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21
addition, the dollar values for metals and chemicals were assigned to
the product just after electrochemical processing (e.g., for aluminum,
the value of ingots was used rather than plates or tubes fabricated in
subsequent steps).
Electrochemical processes provide the only commercially viable means
by which humanity can obtain certain essential materials. There are no
alternate methods for most metals obtained by electrowinning or electro-
refining. Without aluminum, a product of electrochemical technology,
commercial air travel would be impossible. Efficient electrical
machinery depends on copper of high purity, a product of electrowinning
and electrorefining. The most powerful oxidizing agent, fluorine, is
produced solely by electrolysis; its applications are essential to a
wide variety of useful purposes. The only economically viable method
for producing chlorine and caustic, both essential chemicals, is
electrolysis. Electroplating, or the deposition of thin metallic
layers, provides a unique and often low-cost means for upgrading metal
performance in cosmetic as well as structural uses. Electrochemical
reactions are highly efficient, since their chemical energy is converted
directly into electrical energy and vice versa. Consequently, these
reactions may have an energy efficiency far exceeding that of ordinary
heat engines, which are subject to the Carnot-cycle limitation.
The second area is the contribution to the success of other
industries or products that have a socioeconomic impact far greater than
the dollar value of associated electrochemical processes. Several
examples will serve to illustrate this "value added":
Automobiles cost more than 100 times the price of the battery, but
the battery permits easy, reliable starting, allowing it to be a
convenient mode of transportation for normal lifestyles. Indeed,
batteries provide the only efficient small-scale devices for the storage
of instantly available electrical energy. Dependent on batteries are
all automobiles; all telephone circuits; most modern watches, calcu-
lators, and standby power sources; most modern weapons systems for
propulsion (torpedoes, for example), communication, and guidance
systems; space exploration (which also uses fuel cells); and implanted
heart pacers.
· The annual market for microelectronic devices, the backbone of
many consumer and business products, is about 400 times the cost
associated with electrochemical processing and production of semi-
conductors, the"brains" of the devices (2~.
· Corrosion control technology is a mainstay of automobile coatings
as well as household appliances; for example, the lifetime of water
heaters is extended and often governed by the presence of a magnesium
sacrificial anode that represents a small fraction of the appliance price.
OCR for page 22
22
Finally, the third area represents socially important aspects that
are impossible to quantify. Thus, for example, the "value" of electro-
chemistry to medical science far exceeds its dollar market size.
Several areas where electrochemical phenomena play a significant
role are discussed in the following sections.
ELECTROCHEMICAL INDUSTRIES
Electrochemical processes provide the basis for numerous chemical
industries that are important both in the dollar value of the product,
as in the case of aluminum, and in the value of the derived products.
For example, chlorine, a large-volume chemical, is an essential inter-
mediate in the production of polyvinyl chloride plastics, a $5 billion
industry. The sizes of individual industries (3,4) are indicated in
Tables 3-1 and 3-2. The large contributors are the more mature
industries that are on a plateau of their growth curves. Research and
development in those mature industries can have significant dollar
value, and the commercial basis for R&D funding already exists.
Existing Industry
Trends in aluminum production technology offer an excellent example
of emerging opportunities and the critical role of electrochemical R&D
therein. Aluminum ingot production consumes about 5 percent of the
electricity generated in the United States, and this constitutes 15 to
25 percent of the ingot metal cost. Successful commercialization of
developments in two areas could reduce energy consumption by 15 to
20 percent (5) and ingot costs by $150 to $200 million, based on
current annual aluminum production (Table 3-2~. The first area is
electrolytic cell design coupled with improved anode and cathode
materials. Limiting factors appear to be finding (a) a stable
(nonconsumable), low-resistance, readily fabricated anode material to
replace the carbon anode and (b) a cathode chemically stable in the
electrolyte; these two items would permit cell designs with smaller
interelectrode spacings.
The second area is development of a molten-salt fuel cell. The
limiting problems are materials (electrode and separator stability, for
example), and these are discussed later in this report (Chapter 6) and
elsewhere (6~. A third area where there could be a significant
impact on ingot costs is in waste processing specifically, converting
.. ~ , _
. . . . · · . . ~ · . ~
scrap potllnlng t~rom aluminum production Into usable products such as
graphite, aluminum fluoride, and caustic that could be sold or recycled
into the process (7~. The key technical problem involves ion-
specific membrane technology in concentrated waste stream treatment;
cost reductions comparable to those noted above appear likely.
OCR for page 23
23
The production of aluminum is an outstanding example of a
multibillion-dollar industry created by an invention that was sparked by
a small research and development effort. In 1986 the aluminum industry
celebrates the 100th anniversary of the invention of the Hall
electrolytic cell, which provided a commercially feasible method of
reducing alumina, thus allowing the growth of per capita consumption of
aluminum to the point where today it is second only to steel. Indeed,
aluminum production has increased exponentially since the Hall cell was
developed, and this in turn has been improved significantly by research
and development. Thus, the aluminum production of one cell has
increased from 100 pounds per day in 1920 to 1000 pounds per day in 1980
to 3800 pounds per day for the largest cell in 1986, and continued
improvements are projected.
Opportunities parallel to that for aluminum exist in chlorine and
caustic production and certainly exist for production in emerging
materials markets. Small rapidly growing industries, or new embryo
industries, are difficult to identify because of small dollar volume,
and yet in 10 to 20 years they may become significant. These
industries are the ones most likely to be advanced", and even be created",
by the support of the research and development identified in this
report. For example, the magnesium industry has a small volume at
present; however, its potential for growth is large. Magnesium is the
lightest structural metal (about two-thirds the weight of aluminum for
comparable strength and fracture resistance) and with its excellent
castability should find growing application in the automotive,
aerospace, and electronics industries.
Another area of great potential involves the production of
high-value-added organic chemicals by electrochemical methods of
synthesis. The high yield of these routes is particularly attractive
for specialty chemical markets. Larger scale processes that have been
commercialized include tetraalkyllead (8) and adiponitrile.
The important points are that (a) new technology is needed to
maintain international competitiveness of domestic industries producing
basic chemicals and metals, (b) this technology will result from a
strong R&D program, and (c) there is substantial economic leverage in
such a program in helping to retain domestic industries, which
contribute so heavily to the nation's economy.
Corrosion
The economic cost of corrosion in the United States has been
estimated (l) to be about $120 billion (in 1982~. This staggering
figure amounts to about 4 percent of the gross national product, or more
than $500 per person annually in the United States. The broad
OCR for page 24
24
categories examined are shown in Table 3-4 along with the losses that
could be avoided by implementation of known corrosion control
technology. It is noteworthy that new technology will be required to
avoid most of the costs. Corrosion control underpins other
technologies, as discussed later for the electric power industry. From
examples given earlier in this chapter, corrosion control would be
expected to have an economic impact from fifty- to a hundred-fold
greater than its own dollar value. Therefore, in Table 3-3, its future
annual "market value" was estimated at $1 to $2 billion.
TABLE 3-4 Estimated 1982 Corrosion Costs for the
United States
Category
Cost
($ billion)
Avoidable
Cost
($ billion)
Energy industries
Electric power
Material production
Government operations
Personally owned automobiles
Total
67.5
6.6
13.9
17.8
16.2
1 22.0
1.4
0.2
0.4
4.5
_0.5
17.0
It is interesting to note in Table 3-4 that the smallest avoidable
cost is assigned to the electric power industry, where there has been
considerable research and development to mitigate corrosion problems,
especially in nuclear generation systems. Costs attributable to
corrosion in nuclear power plants are highly leveraged because of the
loss of generating capacity (the capacity factor loss), which is
expensive to replace. During the period from 1980 to 1982, the capacity
factor loss in U.S. nuclear plants due to corrosion problems was about
5 percent of total capacity (9) and cost about $1 billion annually;
the costs are attributable solely to corrosion. Several million dollars
per year are invested in R&D programs to develop countermeasures to
these corrosion problems; these programs are funded by vendors of
nuclear systems, by the Electric Power Research Institute, representing
many public utilities, and by government agencies (Nuclear Regulatory
Commission and Department of Energy).
OCR for page 25
25
Batteries and Fuel Cells
Electrochemical power sources are a multibillion-dollar-per-year
business. Automobile starting batteries represent about $2 billion per
year in the United States and over $5 billion per year worldwide. Other
types of batteries and fuel cells have sales of over $1.5 billion per
year in the United States and over $6 billion per year worldwide
(10~. In developing countries the market is growing because in many
remote areas batteries provide the only electrical power.
New civilian markets for batteries appear to be substantial. In the
United States, the electric utility industry is estimating a market by
the year 2000 of $0.3 billion per year for battery off-peak energy
storage systems, provided new battery technology is available (11~.
This corresponds to a total installed battery capability of 40,000 MW by
the year 2000. The U.S. market for batteries for over-the-road consumer
electric vehicles is projected to be $4 billion per year if only
10 percent of new vehicles would be battery-powered. More research is
needed to enter this potential market. Realization of that market
requires that battery prices be reduced to about $100/kWh and lifetimes
be extended to more than 3 years. Multibillion-dollar annual markets
for associated equipment such as electric drive motors, microprocessor
controls, and related electronics would be created by the successful
penetration of the market by electric automobiles.
Information is available on forklifts and commercial fleet vehicles,
so that potential domestic markets can be estimated (12,13~. The
current number of forklifts in the United States is approximately
1.5 million, and annual purchases are approximately 100,000 (based on
1985 and projected 1986 figures). Approximately half of the new lifts
are battery-powered, with the battery costing $4000 to $5000. Thus, the
current annual market for these batteries is roughly $200 to
$250 million, and the potential market is about twice as large.
In commercial fleets there are approximately 13 million light-duty
"over-the-road" vehicles, slightly more than half of which are trucks
(including light vans), the remainder being cars (including station
wagons). Analysis (13) of the characteristics of the vehicles and
their use patterns shows that trucks offer the greatest potential for
substitution of electric battery power for the internal combustion
engine. The prime candidates for electric vehicles number 1.5 to
3.5 million (20 to 25 percent of the truck fleet). If a battery cost
comparable to that for forklifts and a 5-year vehicle life are assumed,
the potential annual market is on the order of $1 to $2 billion.
As fuel cell research and development brings down the cost of these
systems, new market possibilities emerge (12,14~. Market analyses
have been made for using fuel cells for increased electricity
OCR for page 26
26
generating capacity (in contrast to replacement of current capacity).
The near-term market (up to the year 2000) was found to be dominated by
cogeneration using phosphoric acid fuel cells because of factors such as
break-even cost and commercialization status. The predicted market is
sensitive to assumptions in the analysis and thus varies two- to
six-fold; therefore, a range of capacities and market values is
indicated in Table 3-5.
TABLE 3-5 Domestic Market Potential
for Electric Utility Fuel Cells
MW
Year Installed
Market
Value
($ billion)
1985 nil
nil
2000 1000-2000 1 -2
2015 5700-44,500 6-45
Comparison of the capacity in the year 2000 versus that in 2015
shows that the annual growth in fuel cell capacity is projected to be in
the range of 500 to 4000 MW. At the cost of $1000 per kilowatt of
capacity, the market value is $0.5 billion to $4 billion per year for
domestic utilities. The international market is estimated to be two to
three times larger. Market penetration will be assisted with the
development of another fuel cell concept based on molten-salt
electrolytes. In comparison to the phosphoric acid cell, the
molten-salt fuel cell is a simpler engineering system, has a greater
operating efficiency (50 to 60 percent versus 40 to 45 percent), but
lags 5 to 10 years in commercialization status.
In addition to the potential market for fuel-cell systems,
other significant benefits would also accrue. For example, the savings
due to reduced SOX and NO emissions with fuel cell systems
installed would be about $1.~ billion over the next 25 years. The
higher efficiency of the fuel cell compared to conventional systems
would save about 90 million barrels of oil per year (for an installed
capacity of 40,000 MWe).
The electrochemical power source business is rather fragmented,
and most of it operates at a low profit margin because of intense
competition. The research performed by this industry is estimated to be
OCR for page 27
27
about $30 million per year, less than 1 percent of sales. This is an
extremely low figure, and it serves to point out the need for additional
research that would allow the United States to maintain its competitive
position in the world market. Foreign competition is keen. Countries
such as Japan and Germany have been extremely effective in competing
with the United States in the introduction of new, high-performance
electrochemical power sources. The most direct and effective manner for
the United States to retain a leading market share would be to develop a
strong federal research program that interacts effectively with U.S.
industry.
Electrochemical Sensors
Sensors are devices with behavior that responds to physical,
mechanical, or chemical changes in the environment and with properties
that can be quantitatively and reliably measured. Applications for
sensors span the health, agriculture, industry, and personal-use sectors
of the economy. With few exceptions (e.g., pH sensors), today's
electrochemical sensors are associated with laboratory systems because
their complexity and fragility require operation by trained technicians
under controlled conditions. The potential markets for instrumentation
systems containing electrochemical sensors that are simple, rugged,
reliable, and low in cost are large and are outlined in Table 3-6.
Although they represent a small percentage of the dollar value of
markets for instrumentation systems that use them, sensors are the
enabling technology that gives the system its needed sensitivity,
selectivity, and reliability.
Health Care
Devices based on electrochemical phenomena represent a
multimillion-dollar market annually for health care (15~.
Applications are probably most important in the sphere of population
well-being. For example, experience with heart pacemakers shows that
the typical use is for those in the 60- to 80-year age bracket who will
lead a relatively active and normal life and have a "statistically
average" life expectancy with the assistance of a pacemaker. Without
this device, the person would be debilitated and have a life expectancy
of only 1 to 2 years. The current market for pacemakers is estimated at
nearly 300,000 per year worldwide, about half that in the United States
(15~. With a battery cost on the order of $100 for an implanted
pacemaker, the dollar value ranges from $15 to $30 million for the
batteries alone (predominantly lithium-iodine systems). The total cost
associated with implanting pacemakers is a hundred times greater.
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28
TABLE 3-6 Market Potentials for Electrochemical Sensors
Distributed (D)
or Potential
Centralised (C) Market
Class of Sensors Facility ($ million) Comments
Bioelectrochemical
l
Health--Critical care C (relatively 500 Need small self
(e.g., monitoring marital small number of contained devices
functions where units)
information is needed on
"real-time" basis)
Health--Routine analyses D 500-1000 Need rugged,
(e.g., blood analysis reliable, low-cost
directly in physician's sensors
office)
Health--Specialty markets C 500
Industrial--Food processing C 100 Need sensors for
(e.g., fermentation) use in continuous
flow streams
Industrial--Processing C 100
involving measurement
of complex molecules
Other Than Bioelectrochemical
Industrial--Chemical processing D 100 Current market
(predominantly pH sensors)
Industrial--Chemical processing D 1000 Need sensors with
improved reliabil
ity, longevity,
and stability
Industrial--Environmental D 100
monitoring (e.g., pollution
control)
Vehicular--Monitoring operating D (-107 units 100 Need low-cost
conditions per year) sensore($1-$10)
Home and Office--Heat and D (>108 units in 1000 Need low-cost
humidity control place in United sensors compatible
States) with central
microprocessor
control
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29
The overall performance and reliability of both implanted and
external medical devices depend strongly on the battery characteristics
(including chemical composition of the electrodes as well as the battery
design and electrolyte). Lithium-based batteries are the current choice
for pacemakers, where continuous power requirements are on the order of
10-4 W; battery duration depends on demand factors and is about
7 years for continuous service (16~. Other devices are being
developed that have higher power needs and serve specialty markets
(probably smaller than that for pacemakers). Some of these are the
following:
Implanted drug dispensers are sought to permit timed release of
medicines, such as insulin, on a steady-state basis or as needed if
coupled with an appropriate sensor. (For example, a glucose sensor
would operate in conjunction with an insulin dispenser for diabetics.)
The "drug pump" power requirements are approximately 10-3 W.
· Neural stimulators are battery-powered electrodes useful for
several treatments pain, some mental disorders, and accelerated healing
of bone fractures, for example. These systems have power requirements
up to a hundred times that of dispensers.
Defibrillator systems apply electrical shocks through two
electrodes attached to the heart. Current analyses specify power needs
at 10-3 W (continuous) and 1 W peak power for developing a
sufficient shock. The estimates show that current lithium batteries
will be depleted after 100 shocks and need to be replaced every 2 to
3 years.
· The artificial heart has the greatest power requirements for
implanted devices, exceeding 10 W; there are no acceptable implantable
batteries for this application at present.
Ire addition to use in implanted devices, small batteries are the
power source for hand-held and portable instruments; some applications
are telemetry receivers, pacer system analyzers, pacemaker programmers,
and Hotter monitors.
Electrochemical corrosion is important to the stability and
longevity of implants. Evidence suggests that uniform attack and
crevice and pitting corrosion are the most important degradation modes
with multipart orthopedic devices (17~. Corrosion of devices with
blood contact is more complex, due to the oxygenated flowing
electrolyte. The cost of this corrosion has not been estimated, but it
could be substantially greater than the battery market because the
latter is a small fraction of the total cost of the device and
associated medical operations.
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30
REFERENCES
1. Meredith, R. E. The Cost of Corrosion and the Need for Research.
Report to Office of Energy Systems, U.S. Department of Energy,
Washington, D.C., 1983.
2. VLSI Manufacturing Outlook. San Jose, California: VLSI Research
Inc., 1985, pages 13-18 and 113-150.
Hall, D., and E. Spore. Report of the electrolytic industries for
the year 1984. J. Electrochem. Soc., 132:252C, 1985.
4. Saxman, Donald B. Electrochemistry: Commercial Developments and
Trends. Stamford, Conn.: Business Communications Co., Jan. 1986.
Jones, M. Testimony before U.S. Senate Research and Development
Committee, Feb. 24, 1986.
6. Assessment of Research Needs for Advanced Fuel Cells. DOE Report
DOE/ER/30060-T 1, Nov. 1985.
Lever, G., ]. P. McGeer, and K. Mani. A membrane process to convert
spent potlining into valuable products. Paper presented at Annual
AIME Meeting, New Orleans, Mar. 9, 1986.
8. Danly, D. E. Industrial electroorganic chemistry. Organic
Electrochemistry, 2nd Ed., M. M. Baizer and H. Lund, eds. New
York: M. Dekker, 1983.
9. Koppe, R. H., E. A. J. Olson, and D. W. LeShay. Nuclear Unit
Operating Experience: 1980 Through 1982 Update. EPRI NP-3480.
Palo Alto, Calif.: Electric Power Research Institute, Apr. 1984.
10. World Battery Industry. Concord, Mass.: George Consulting
International, Inc., Dec. 1985.
11. Fickett, A. Batteries for Electric Utilities: Will There Be a
Market? EPRI EM-3631-SR. Palo Alto, Calif.: Electric Power
Research Institute, Dec. 1984.
Information sources for market information for sections of this
chapter or for Figure 3-1 and Table 3-2 and 3-3 were as follows:
Semiconductors-G. D. Hutcheson, VLSI Research, Inc.;
Electroplating William Safranek, Technical Editor, Plating and
Surface Finishing, American Electroplating and Surface Finishing
Society; Batteries and fuel cells W. J. Walsh, Argonne National
Laboratory, and John Appleby, Electric Power Research Institute;
Sensors Imants Lauks, Integrated tonics, Inc.; Membranes Anna W.
OCR for page 31
31
Crull, Chemical Technology Consultants; Health care Boone B. Owens,
University of Minnesota, and Patrick J. Moran, Johns Hopkins
University.
13. Berg, M. R. The Potential Market for Electric Vehicles. Institute
for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Aug. 9,
1984.
14. Energy Management Associates. The Application of Fuel Cells in
Utility Systems. EPR! EM-3205. Palo Alto, Calif.: Electric Power
Research Institute, Aug. 1983.
15. Salkind, A., et al. Electrically driven implantable prostheses.
Chapter 1 in Batteries for Implantable Biomedical Devices, B. B.
Owens, ed. New York: Plenum Press, 1986.
16. Kelly, Robert G. The Determination of the Rate Limiting Mechanism
in Lithium/Iodine (PZZP) Batteries. M.S. thesis. Johns Hopkins
University, Baltimore, Feb. 1986.
17. Park, J. B. Biomaterials: An Introduction. New York: Plenum
Press, 1 979.
OCR for page 32
Representative terms from entire chapter:
corrosion control
