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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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APPENDIX A

WORKSHOP AGENDA

Workshop on Improving Models of Forecasting Demand and Supply for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers

MARCH 19-20, 1998

Lecture Room

National Academy of Sciences

2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.

Washington, DC

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

National Research Council

MARCH 19, 1998

1:00pm

Welcome

Michael Teitelbaum

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Daniel McFadden

University of California, Berkeley

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

Jeanne Griffith

National Science Foundation

1:30-3:00pm

Panel I

Forecasting Models: Objectives and Approaches

What would the characteristics of good models of supply and demand for scientists and engineers be? Such models would likely recognize that adjustment can occur in three dimensions: quantity, price, and quality. To date, models have focused only on quantity. What models can actually be estimated, however, depend on what data is available, not just rich specification. This session will focus on alternative approaches to models and describe what models could be estimated, given available data. It will also look at what additional data would make possible improvement in the kinds of models used to describe adjustment in these labor markets.

Presenter:

Burt S. Barnow

Johns Hopkins University

Panel:

Ronald Ehrenberg

Cornell University

George Walker

Indiana University

John A. Armstrong

IBM, retired

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

Chair:

Ronald Oaxaca

University of Arizona

3:15-4:45pm

Panel II

Neglected Margins: Substitution and Quality

Much modeling of labor markets for scientists and engineers neglects price, price elasticity, substitution among different types of labor and other variables (corporate restructuring, use of different kinds of academic workers, effects of immigration, etc.). What are the external drivers of substitution? What data might serve as indicators?

Presenter:

Sherwin Rosen

University of Chicago

Panel:

Michael Finn

Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education

Eric Weinstein

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Paula Stephan

Georgia State University

Chair:

Daniel Hamermesh

University of Texas, Austin

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

5:00-7:00pm

Reception

Members Room

MARCH 20, 1998

8:30am

Continental Breakfast

Lecture Anteroom

9:00-10:30am

Panel III

Models of Scientific and Engineering Supply and Demand: History and Problems

This session will focus on shortage/surplus or “gap” models that have been estimated in the past. Have they been useful? For what purposes? Given the importance of external shocks in these markets, how should the importance of inherent uncertainty be conveyed to non-expert users? Could these models be modified to take into account the simultaneous adjustments of quantity, quality, and price in either equilibrium or adjustment models?

Presenter:

George Johnson

University of Michigan

Panel:

Geoff Davis

Dartmouth College

Charles A. Goldman

RAND

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

Robert Dauffenbach

University of Oklahoma

Sarah E. Turner

University of Virginia

Chair:

Brett Hammond

TIAA-CREF

10:45-12:30pm

Panel IV

Presentation of Uncertainty and Use of Forecasts with Explicit Uncertainty

What is the best way to communicate the sensitivity of model outputs to assumptions and to uncertainty? How should uncertainty be presented and explained to policymakers and others who are educated but not expert users? How and why are policymakers likely to misunderstand and “misuse” forecasts and what can be done about it by modelers/forecasters?

Presenter:

Nancy Kirkendall

Office of Management and Budget

Panel:

Daniel Greenberg

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Neal Rosenthal

Science & Government Report

Johns Hopkins University

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

Chair:

Caroline Hoxby

Harvard University

12:30-1:30pm

Lunch

1:30-3:00pm

Discussion Panel

Should we continue forecasting S&E supply and demand?

Should forecasts be presented differently?

Should we continue forecasting supply and demand for scientists and engineers? Should forecasts be presented differently?

Moderator:

Daniel McFadden

University of California, Berkeley

Participants:

Alexander H. Flax

Institute for Defense Analysis, retired

Skip Stiles

Committee on Science

U. S. House of Representatives

Open discussion

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
Page 65
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
Page 66
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
Page 67
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
Page 68
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
Page 69
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A Workshop Agenda." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
Page 70
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This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.

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