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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
REVIEW OF THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURUEY’S VOLCANO HAZARDS PROGRAM
Committee on the Review of the USGS Volcano Hazards Program
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, under assistance award No. 98HQAG2218. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. government.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07096-1
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800–624–6242 202–334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu
Cover: Eruption of Mount St. Helens, courtesy of InterNetwork Media.
Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE VOLCANO HAZARDS PROGRAM OF THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
JONATHAN H.FINK, Chair,
Arizona State University, Tempe
CHARLES B.CONNOR,
Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, Texas
W.GARY ERNST,
Stanford University, California
RICHARD S.FISKE,
Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.
CATHERINE J.HICKSON,
Geological Survey of Canada, Vancouver, British Columbia
HARRY KIM,
Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency, Hilo
STUART A.ROJSTACZER,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
PAUL SEGALL,
Stanford University, California
JOHN STIX,
McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
FREDERICK J.SWANSON,
U.S. Forest Service, Corvallis, Oregon
NRC Staff
TAMARA L.DICKINSON, Study Director
REBECCA E.SHAPACK, Research Assistant
JUDITH L.ESTEP, Administrative Assistant (through January, 2000)
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
RAYMOND JEANLOZ, Chair,
University of California, Berkeley
JOHN J.AMORUSO,
Amoruso Petroleum Company, Houston, Texas
PAUL B.BARTON, JR.,
U.S. Geological Survey (emeritus), Reston, Virginia
BARBARA L.DUTROW,
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge
ADAM M.DZIEWONSKI,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
RICHARD S.FISKE,
Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.
JAMES M.FUNK,
Shell Continental Companies (retired), Houston, Texas
WILLIAM L.GRAF,
Arizona State University, Tempe
SUSAN M.KIDWELL,
University of Chicago, Illinois
SUSAN W.KIEFFER,
Kieffer & Woo, Inc., Palgrave, Ontario, Canada
PAMELA D.LUTTRELL,
Dallas, Texas
ALEXANDRA NAVROTSKY,
University of California, Davis
DIANNE R.NIELSON,
Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City
JONATHAN G.PRICE,
Nevada Bureau of Mines & Geology, Reno
MILTON H.WARD,
Hapibo Corporation, Tucson, Arizona
NRC Staff
ANTHONY R.DE SOUZA, Director
TAMARA L.DICKINSON, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A.FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M.LINN, Senior Program Officer
JENNIFER T.ESTEP, Administrative Associate
REBECCA E.SHAPACK, Research Assistant
VERNA J.BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M.HORNBERGER, Chair,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARD A.CONWAY,
Union Carbide Corporation (retired), South Charleston, West Virginia
LYNN GOLDMAN,
Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
THOMAS E.GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J.GRAFF,
Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY,
University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
JOHN B.MOONEY, JR.,
J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C.MORRIS,
El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia
H.RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL,
University of Tennessee (retired), Knoxville
ROBERT J.SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANDREW R.SOLOW,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
NRC Staff
ROBERT M.HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H.SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making their published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Grant Heiken
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos, New Mexico
George M.Hornberger
Unviersity of Virginia,
Charlottesville
Donald Hull
Partners for Loss Prevention
Portland, Oregon
R.Wally Johnson
Australian Geological Survey
Canberra, Australia
Peter Mouginis-Mark
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Honolulu
John Pitlick
University of Colorado
Boulder
Michael Sheridan
State University of New York,
Buffalo
John Trapp
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Rockville, Maryland
David Walker
Columbia University
Palisades, New York
Although the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
PROLOGUE 1
9
PROLOGUE 2
13
1
INTRODUCTION
15
Context,
15
Volcano Hazards Program Setting,
16
Budget History,
22
Staffing History,
22
Program Approaches,
25
Study and Report,
27
2
RESEARCH AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT
29
Research,
29
Hazard Assessment,
31
What Is Volcano Hazard Assessment?,
32
Why Does the USGS Do Volcano Hazard Assessments?,
33
What Hazards are Assessed?,
33
What Is the Status of Assessment Within VHP?,
34
The State of Volcano Hazards Assessment at USGS Observatories,
39
Future of Hazard Assessment,
46
Summary,
48
3
VOLCANO MONITORING
51
What Is Volcano Monitoring and Why Should the VHP Do It?,
51
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
What Is the Status of Monitoring within the VHP?,
52
Monitoring Approaches and Issues,
55
Other Monitoring Issues,
62
Summary,
64
4
CRISIS RESPONSE AND OUTREACH
65
What Is Volcano Crisis Response and Why Should the VHP Do It?,
65
What Is the Status of Crisis Response Within the VHP?,
67
What Are the Obstacles to Successful Crisis Response by the VHP?,
69
Training and Knowledge Dissemination,
70
Infrastructure and Budget,
71
Partnership Issues,
72
How Does Crisis Response Relate to Public Outreach?,
75
What Are Some Obstacles to Successful Outreach?,
76
Summary,
77
5
PROGRAMMATIC AND INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES
79
Human Resources,
79
Integration and Communication,
81
Students,
83
Extramural Grants Program,
84
Personnel Exchanges,
85
Federal Coordination,
85
Priority Setting and Accountability,
86
Overall VHP Priorities,
86
Observatory Priorities,
87
Interdivisional Issues,
88
Data Access and Management,
89
6
A VISION FOR THE USGS VOLCANO HAZARDS PROGRAM
93
An Alternate Scenario for the 2010 Eruption of Mount Rainier,
93
7
PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
103
Research,
105
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Review of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program
Hazard Assessment,
106
Monitoring,
108
Crisis Response,
110
Programmatic and Institutional Issues,
112
REFERENCES
115
APPENDIX A:
Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
119
APPENDIX B:
Oral Presentations and Written Statements
123
APPENDIX C:
USGS Volcano Hazard Assessments
127
ACRONYMS
137
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