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CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Priority Fields Summary of Current Outlook Recommendations Training Data National Research Service Awards for 1981 and 1982 AddendumPublic Meeting, June 2,1982 2. CLINICAL SCIENCES Introduction and Overview Maintaining the Flow of New Clinical Investigators Monitoring the Clinical Investigator Pool Short-Term Research Training Medical Scientist Training Program Involvement of Ph.D. Scientists in Clinical Investigations The Market Outlook - 3. BASIC BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES Introduction and Overview The Training System in Biomedical Science Fields Expansion of the Postdoctoral Population Career Outcomes of Former NIH Predoctoral Trainees and Fellows The Market Outlook 4. BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Introduction and Overview The Training System in Behavioral Science Fields The Market Outlook 5. HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH Introduction The Scope of Health Services Research The Supply of Investigators Demand for Health Services Researchers Long-Term Considerations 6. NURSING RESEARCH Introduction Examples of Nursing Research Future Nursing Research Agenda The Supply of Research Personnel and Demand for Nurses with Doctorates BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIXES A. Clinical Sciences Data B. Biomedical Sciences Data C. Behavioral Sciences Data D. Miscellaneous Data E. Biotechnology Survey Questionnaire X1 4 s 7 9 9 16 18 18 22 23 24 24 26 34 50 50 51 57 66 68 88 88 91 94 117 117 118 121 124 129 131 131 132 134 134 143 153 153 173 193 209 216
TABLES CHAPTER 1 2.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 TABLE 1.1 Aggregated Numbers of NIH/ADAMHA/HRSA Trainee~hip and Fellowship Awards for FY 1981 and FY 1982 NIH Traineeship and Fellowship Awards for FY 1981 and FY 1982 ADAMHA Traineeship and Fellowship Awards for FY 1981 and FY 1982 Committee Recommendations for NIH/ ADAMHA/HRSA Predoctoral and Postdoctoral Traineeship and Fellowship Award. for FY 1985-87 Estimated Cost of Recommended NIH/ ADAMHA/HRSA Training Programs for FY 1985-87 (millions of dollars) Estimated Training Costs Per Award in FY 1982 (dollars) CHAPTER 2 TABLE 2.1 Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators in the Clinical Sciences 2.2 Distribution of NIH Postdoctoral Trainees and Fellows, by Degree Type, 1971-81 2.3 Statistical Profile of Full-Time Ph.D. Faculty in Medical School Departments, 1982 2.4 Statistical Profile of Full-Time M.D. Faculty in Medical School Departments, 1982 2.5 Projected Growth in Medical School Clinical Faculty, 1980-88, Based on Projections of Medical School Enrollment, Clinical R and D Expenditures, and Medical Service Income in Medical Schools Estimated Number of Clinical Research Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected Demand for Clinical Faculty Through 1988 Under Various Conditions 11 12 13 14 20 28 30 31 45 47 CHAPTER 3 TABLE 3.1 Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators for Biomedical Science Ph.D.s 52 3.2 Estimated Percent of Biomedical Ph.D. Recipients Entering Postdoctoral Training Immediately After Graduation Who Still Held Appointments 3, 4, and 5 Years Later 3.3 Employment Situations of Biomedical Ph.D. Recipients Who Had Entered Postdoctoral Training Between 5 and 7 Years Earlier, 197S-81 3.4 Projected Growth in Biomedical Science Ph.D. Faculty, 1980-88, Based on Projections of Enroll- ment, and R and D Expenditures 3.5 Estimated Number of Basic Biomedical Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected Academic Demand Through 1988 Under Various Conditions 3.6 Inflows and Outflows from Academic Employment for Biomedical Science Ph.D.s, 1979-81 77 3.7 Ph.D.s Employed by Business and Industry in the Biomedical Sciences, 1973-81 3.8 Biomedical Ph.D.s Employed by Biotechnology Firms Responding to Survey CHAPTER 4 TABLE 4.1 4.2 Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators for Behavioral Science Ph.D.s Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators for Clinical and Nonclinical Behavioral Science Ph.D.s 4.3 Behavioral Scientists Employed in Colleges and Universities, 1961-81 4.4 Projected Growth in Behavioral Science Ph.D. Faculty, 1980-88, Based on Projections of Enrollment and Faculty/Student Ratios 4.5 Estimated Number of Behavioral Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected Academic Demand Through 1988 Under Various Conditions 4.6 Inflows and Outflows from Academic Employment for Behavioral Science Ph.D.s, 1979-81 4.7 Employment Situations of Behavioral Ph.D. Recipients Who Had Received Their Doctorates Within the Previous 2 Years, 1973-81 4.8 Field Switching into and out of Clinical and Nonclinical Areas of the Behavioral Sciences by FY 1971-80 Ph.D. Recipients 6.2 60 63 74 76 79 83 95 96 102 106 107 109 CHAPTER 6 TABLE 6.1 Average Percent of Time Spent in Research by Work Setting and Percent of Nurses with Doctorates, 1980 136 Actual and Recommended MRSA Training Awards in Nursing Research, FY 1979-81 140 X 1 1 1
F IGU RES CHAPTER 2 FIGURE 2.1 Participation of Ph.D., M.D., and other scientists on clinical research grants sponsored by NIH, 1973-78 26 2.2 Nether of accredited and provisionally accredited U.S. medical schools, by control of institution, 1962-82 2.3 Medical students, residents, and clinical fellows at U.S. medical schools, 1961-81 35 2.4 t~ull-time clinical faculty in U. S. medical schools, 1961-82 36 2.5 Ratio of full-time clinical faculty (F) relative to total of medical students, residents, and clinical fellows ( S) at U.S. medical schools, by control of institution, 1963-82 2.6 Average funds per school for clinical R and D expenditures + fee income, by control of institution, 1962-82 ( 1972 $, thousands) 2.7 Clinical faculty/student ratio (CF/WS) vs. clinical funds per school (M) for all medical schools 2.8 Clinical faculty/student ratio (CF/WS) vs. clinical funds per school (M), by control of institution 2.9 Medical students, residents, and clinical fellows, by control of institution, 1961-81, with projections to 1988 2.10 Clinical R and D expenditures per school in U.S. medical schools, 1962-80, with projections to 1988 ( 1972 $, millions ) 2.11 Professional income per school reported by U.S. medical schools, 1962-80, with projections to 1988 (1972 $, millions) 2.12 Clinical faculty in U.S. medical schools, by control of institution, 1961-81, with pro jections to 1988 CHAPTER 3 FIGURE 3.1 Doctoral training system in the biomedical sciences 3.2 Estimated growth in the numbers of Ph.D. awards, academic postdoctoral appointments, and first-year postdoctoral appointments in the biomedical sciences, 1973-81 3.3 Percent of the postdoctoral population in the biomedical sciences who had earned their doctorates more than 2, 3, or 4 years earlier, 1973-81 3.4 First-year graduate enrollments in the biomedical sciences, pro jected Ph. D. awards, and new entrants to academic postdoctorals, 1973-87 3.5 Biomedical science Ph.D. faculty/student ratio (F/WS) vs. biomedical science R & D expenditures in colleges and universities ( D) 3.6 Total biomedical science undergraduate and graduate enrollment in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-80, with projections to 1988 3.7 Biomedical science R & D expenditures in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-80, with projections to 1988 (1972 $, millions) 3.8 Ph.D.s employed in the biomedical sciences at colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-81, with pro jections to 1988 3.9 Percentage disribution of the year of firms' initiation of operations in biotechnology industry 3.10 Distribution of the number of biomedical Ph.D.s per firm in the biotechnology industry 3.11 Number of Ph.D. biomedical scientists employed outside the academic sector (excluding postdoctoral appointments ), 1973-81 3.12 Annual number of biomedical scientists in the FY 1981 Ph.D. labor force expected to reach the age of 65 during the PY 1983-2001 period CHAPTER 4 FIGURE 4.1 Doctoral training system in the behavioral sciences 4.2 Doctoral training system in the clinical (CL) and nonclinical (LICIT) behavioral sciences 4.3 Ph.D.s employed in the behavioral sciences at colleges and universities, by control of institution, 196 2-81 4.4 Behavioral science postdoctoral appointments and awarded Ph.D. degrees, 1960-81 4.5 Behavioral science R & D expenditures in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-80 ( 1972 $, millions) 4.6 Total behavioral science undergraduate and gradute enrollment in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-80, with projections to 1988 4.7 Behavioral science Ph.D. faculty/student ratio (F/WS), 1964-80, with pro jections to 1988 4.8 Ph.D.s employed in all behavioral science fields at colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1962-81, with projections to 1988 4.9 Annual number of behavioral scientists in the FY 1981 Ph.D. labor force expected to reach the age of 65 during the FY 198 3-2001 period 4.10 Comparison of first-year full-time graduate enrollments and Ph.D. awards in the behavioral sciences, 197 3-88 XIV 35 36 37 38 40 41 42 43 44 53 58 62 65 69 71 72 73 80 81 85 86 93 94 98 99 100 104 105 105 114
