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OCR for page 51
3. Basic Biomedical Sciences
Abstract
A reduced number of new entrants to the supply of
basic biomedical scientists and increased employment in
the industrial sector have combined to produce a better
balanced market in 1983. Bachelor's degrees awarded in
the biosciences have been falling steadily since 1976,
and graduate enrollment started declining in 1978.
Ph.D. production fell in 1983, and the number of
bioscientists serving on postdoctoral appointments in
1983 failed to increase for the first time in 10 years.
Over half of the bioscience Ph.D.s in the labor
force was employed in colleges and universities in
1983, but there has been little growth in this sector
since 1981. The most rapid growth is taking place in
the industrial sector where the emphasis on commer-
cialization of recent developments in biotechnology
and genetic engineering have increased the demand for
biomedical scientists. Industrial employment of
biomedical Ph.D.s increased by over 9 percent per year
from 1981 to 1983. Industry continues to rely on
academia to produce the scientists it needs,
especially those with training in the latest
techniques of modern bioscience.
The committee expects little net growth in the
academic sector in the next few years, but the age
structure of the bioscience Ph.D. labor force is such
that retirement rates are expected to increase in the
second half of the 1980 decade. Continued growth in
the industrial sector is expected.
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
In previous reports issued since 1976, this committee has cited
the rapid growth in the number of biomedical scientists serving on
postdoctoral appointments as an indicator of insufficient opportunity
for these individuals to move into more permanent academic positions.
There was evidence that a postdoctoral holding pattern had developed
during the 1970s which resulted in many postdoctoral appointees
remaining in that status for prolonged periods. As tenure-track
faculty positions became more difficult to obtain, the postdoctoral
trainees began moving into less traditional career paths such as
nonfaculty research staff and other nontenure-track academic
positions, and also into nonacademic sectors. Almost all of them
either found employment in one of these situations or remained in
51
OCR for page 52
52
postdoctoral status and were primarily involved in R and D
activities. The unemployment rate for biomedical Ph.D.s has not been
more than 1.5 percent since 1972.
The most recent data indicate that a better balance has been
achieved between the inflow and outflow affecting the postdoctoral
pool. Bioscience Ph.D. production and graduate enrollment have
decreased while industrial employment has accelerated. This suggests
another side of the postdoctoral issue--the vital role that they play
in the nation's biomedical research effort. Many experts in the field
have cited the importance of having this reservoir of highly trained
young scientists available to work on research projects while at the
same time receiving training and experience in the latest techniques,
equipment, and methodology. Despite the declining growth in demand
for faculty, the demand for postdoctoral trainees to participate in
research projects continues to be strong.
A postdoctoral appointment of at least 3 years has become almost a
prerequisite for a faculty position at many universities. Furthermore,
a previous study has shown that biomedical Ph.D.s with postdoctoral
training tend to be more successful and productive in their subsequent
careers than those without such training (NRC, 1976a).
So, as pointed out by this committee in its 1979 report (NRC,
1975-81, p. 20), the issue of postdoctoral training is a complex one
involving some important trade-offs. On the one hand, it is in the
national interest to promote and encourage the availability of an
ample supply of young scientists with extended training for biomedical
research who contribute to a research effort in which government
funding plays a major role. On the other hand, if the postdoctoral
pool is large relative to the number of jobs expected to become
available for biomedical scientists where their training can be fully
utilized, then the resources devoted to their training will have been
partially misallocated and some career aspirations will not be
realized. Support for postdoctoral training under NRSA programs is a
regulating mechanism for helping to achieve the proper balance between
these points of view, which often pull in different directions.
In this chapter, we present our assessment of the current market
for basic biomedical scientists with Ph.D. degrees and the outlook for
the next 5 years. Because postdoctoral research training is an
integral part of the system under which these scientists are trained
and absorbed into the pool of established investigators and teachers,
it becomes central to our analysis. We first describe the current
market situation as revealed by the most recent data and then outline
our view of the prospects for the remainder of the decade.
It should be noted that there is some overlap between the
scientists we discuss in this chapter and those basic biomedical
scientists who have appointments in clinical departments of medical
schools. The latter are included in the data of Chapter 2 as well as
in this one. In 1982, about 5,800 out of about 70,000 basic
biomedical Ph.D.s in the labor force had faculty appointments in
clinical departments of medical schools. This overlap in the data
presents a logistical problem for our analyses but is not likely to
materially affect our findings and conclusions.
OCR for page 53
53
CURRENT SUPPLY/DEMAND INDICATORS
The committee's assessment of the need for basic biomedical
scientists and the level of training that should be provided by the
federal government under NRSA programs depends heavily on an analysis
of the academic labor market, since that is the dominant sector both
in terms of the number of bioscientists employed and the amount of
federally-sponsored research performed.
In the committee's last report published in 1983, the latest
available data for most of the factors that affect the supply and
demand for biomedical scientists were for 1981. Additional surveys
have since provided data through 1983. The items that we monitor are
those that our previous work has shown to determine the market for
biomedical Ph.D.s--namely, degrees awarded, enrollments, postdoctoral
appointments, R and D funding, and the distribution of biomedical
Ph.D. labor force by employment sector. Recent trends in these
variables from 1975 to 1983 are shown in Table 3.1 and are summarized
below. More detailed data may be found in Appendix Tables Bl-B18.
Although the current supply of well-trained biomedical scientists
appears adequate, most of the indicators of the flow of new entrants
to the future supply have turned down. There is evidence that the
size of the Ph.D. labor force in biomedical fields is fast approaching
a peak and the prospects for the next few years are for little, if
any, growth. The postdoctoral pool of biomedical scientists--which
has acted to buffer the system since 1972--appears adequate for
current needs. For the rest of the 1980s, we may see a gradual
reduction in the size of the postdoctoral pool as Ph.D. production
declines and more opportunities open up in the nonacademic sectors.
This analysis is based on the following observations.
.
Enrollments and degrees granted in the biomedical fields show
declines from previous years. Generally, these declines
continue a trend of several years but, in some cases, they
constitute the first drop in a long series of increases.
Bioscience Ph.D. production reached an all-time high in 1982
and dropped slightly in 1983.
Bachelor's degrees and first-year graduate enrollments in
bioscience fields have been falling since 1976.
The size of the postdoctoral pool appears to have dropped in
1983 for the first time in over 10 years.
Academic employment of biomedical Ph.D.s increased very
slightly in 1983--industrial employment grew most rapidly.
These and other developments in the biomedical fields are
discussed more fully in the sections below.
OCR for page 54
54
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OCR for page 55
55
Ph.D. Production (Table 3.1, line la and Figure 3.1 )
The annual number of Ph.D. degrees awarded in the biomedical
fields, which has been increasing gradually since the mid-1970s,
reached an all-time high in 1982 before dropping in 1983 to 3,775. As
was pointed out in the committee's 1983 report (IOM, 1983b, pp. 64-65),
the peak production in 1982 and subsequent decline was an expected
result of corresponding patterns of first-year graduate enrollments 6
years earlier. These enrollments peaked around 1976 and have
continued to decline each year since then through 1983 (Figure 3.1~.
If the past relationship between first-year graduate enrollments and
Ph.D. production prevails, we would expect Ph.D. production to
continue to decline for the rest of the 1980 decade at least.
Of course the rate of decline is critically important, and at this
point, we are not sure just how fast the drop will be. If Ph.D.
production is in fact closely tied to first-year graduate enrollments,
then the data would indicate a drop of about 3 percent per year for
the next several years. This would bring the level of biomedical
Ph.D. production in 1990 to about 3,050, which is below the 1970 level.
Whether or not this would lead to serious shortages depends, of course,
on what happens to the demand for biomedical Ph.D.s. The committee's
estimate of demand in turn depends on what assumptions are made about
trends in total graduate and undergraduate enrollments and R and D
funding for the next few years. These assumptions and projections are
presented in the Market Outlook section of this chapter.
Postdoctoral Appointments (Table 3.l, line lc and Figure 3.1 ~
The number of biomedical scientists serving on postdoctoral
appointments apparently declined slightly in 1983 for the first time
in over 10 years, perhaps as a consequence of the drop in Ph.D.
production in that year.
Throughout the 1960s, the postdoctoral pool tracked quite closely
with Ph.D. production. But in the 1970s, the postdoctoral pool
continued to grow while Ph.D. production leveled off. The committee
noted this disparity in its 1983 report (IOM, 1983b, p. 57) and
presented evidence showing that it was due to slower absorption of
postdoctoral trainees into more permanent jobs in the academic
sector. The fact is that employment of bioscientists in the academic
sector slowed dramatically in the mid-1970s after a long period of
rapid expansion since 1960 (see Appendix Table Bed. Between 1960 and
1973, academic employment of biomedical Ph.D.s increased by more than
9 percent per year on the average, but only at 4.5 percent per year
between 1973 and 1981. This slowdown caused some pressure to build up
in the system which has manifested itself by the bulge in the postdoc-
toral pool. Continued expansion of employment in the industrial
sector is apparently helping to relieve some of that pressure.
About 31 percent of bioscience postdoctoral appointees in FY 1983
were foreign citizens, the same percentage as in FY 1982 and up
slightly from the 28 percent in FY 1980 {NSF 1973-85a).
OCR for page 56
56
10, 000
9 ,000
8 ,000
7, 000
6,000
5, 000
4, 000
3, 000
First-Year Full-Time Graduate
Enrol lments in Doctorate-Grantinq -
Insti tutions
Postdoctoral Appointments
~ ~ ~ Ph. D. s Awarded
60
h4
~ ' I I - ~ ~ I ' I l
66 68 70 72 74 76
F I SCAL Y EAR
78 80 82 84
FIGURE 3.1 Ph.D. production, postdoctoral appointments, and first-year graduate enrollments
in doctorate-granting institutions in basic biomedical science fields, 1960-83. See Appendix
Tables B2 and B3.
Bachelor's Degrees (Table 3.], line Id and Figure 3.2)
After a long period of sustained growth from the early 1960s
through 1976, the number of bachelor's degrees granted in the
biomedical sciences has declined for 6 straight years. The bio-
sciences are not alone in this regard--many fields have experienced
similar patterns, with the notable exceptions of business, engineering,
and computer sciences. These occupationally-oriented fields have
proven to be very popular with students lately. Business, and
management in particular, has had exceptionally strong growth in B.A.s
since the mid-1960s. Currently more than 200,000 business B.A.S are
produced annually, far above the second most popular field, education.
The ratio of biomedical bachelor's degrees to total bachelor 'S
degrees awarded annually has fallen to its lowest level since 1960
(Appendix Table By. This has an ominous implication for future Ph.D.
production and also affects our estimate of undergraduate enrollment
in bioscience fields as explained in the next section.
OCR for page 57
1 ,000
9oo
800
700
600
500
400
-
~ 300
o
~ 200
L~^
3 (~
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~ V
100
C3 ~ 90
C) ~ 80
<' =, 70
— 0
O _
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1:
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~:
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csC
L~
z
60
50
40
30
20
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~7
_
~L
-
/~Total B.A.s
_,~
J
_'
,,f.
Bu s i ness and
- Management B.A.s
_ f
_ ~
f
r" .~ .~.
x~ ~ ~x
_ ,,.~ ~ ~%
,~xx Bi omedi cal Sc i ence B . A. s
x.
. x
_ x
xx
x
xx .~
— $
:~~
~ Physical Science B. A. s
l ~ ~ ~ I I ~ I J I
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82
F I SCAL Y EAR
FIGURE 3.2 Bachelor's degrees awarded in biomedical science fields com-
pared to other fields, 1962-82. See Appendix Tables B3 and B4. Business and
management and physical sciences degrees are from the U.S. Department of
Education (1948-84~.
OCR for page 58
58
Enrollments (Table 3.l, line 4 and Figure 3.3)
For purposes of this study, it is necessary to have an estimate of
undergraduate enrollment in bioscience fields, mainly because such
enrollment helps to determine the demand for bioscience Ph.D.s in the
academic sector. Yet the U.S. Department of Education, whose surveys
collect most of the country's data on enrollments and degrees, does
not provide undergraduate enrollment figures by such detailed fields.
Therefore, we have developed a procedure for estimating bioscience
undergraduate enrollment from the ratio of bioscience bachelor's
degrees to total bachelor's degrees (Bb/Bt). This ratio in year t
is multiplied by total undergraduate enrollment in year t-2 to provide
an estimate of bioscience enrollment in year t-2.
Boo
700 _
600
In
~ 500
o
4~
100
Actual
_______ Projected
Al l Sc hoof s
1
1
I li gh Estimate ( 1%/yr . )
- -A - Ml Od l e tst.
(-1%/Yr. )
_~
~ Publ i c School s
Pri vate School s
~ V+~+ I+~+ ~ ~ ~ ~ ++~+ F+~+
-_ ~ Ilila te
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
60 62
64 66 68 70 72 74 76
F I SCAL YEAR
78 80 82 84 86 88 90
FIGURE 3.3 Total biomedical science undergraduate and graduate enrollments in colleges and univer-
sities, by control of institution, 1960-81, with projections to 1990. See Appendix Table B1.
OCR for page 59
59
As noted in the previous section, the ratio B ~ Bt has been
falling since 1976, and so even though total undergraduate enrollment
has increased almost without interruption since 1960 and reached an
all-time high in 1983, estimated bioscience undergraduate enrollment
has been declining since 1976. The latest estimate for 1981 is almost
1 percent below the 1980 level.
Since we cannot measure bioscience undergraduate enrollment
directly, there is some uncertainty that our estimating procedure is
detecting the trends accurately. Yet there is also some corroborating
evidence from graduate enrollment to support our estimates. Graduate
enrollment in bioscience fields (which is measured directly by the
National Science Foundation) reflects the pattern shown by estimated
bioscience undergraduate enrollment--it reached a peak in 1978 and has
been falling steadily since then through 1983 (Table 3.1, line 4a).
Although enrollments in medical and dental schools have leveled
out, as of 1983 they had not fallen (Table 3.1, line 4b). But the
1983 increase over 1982 was only 16 students, and it is anticipated
that 1984-85 data will show the first yearly decline in these
enrollments in more than 20 years.
Overall, total graduate and undergraduate enrollment in bioscience
fields, as best we can estimate it, reached an all-time high in 1976
and has declined steadily through 1981. This pattern is illustrated
in Figure 3.3 along with the committee's projections through 1990.
R and D Funding (Table 3.1, line 2 and Figure 3.4)
Biomedical science R and D expenditures at colleges and universi-
ties are generally following the pattern anticipated by the committee.
These funds increased by 2 percent in 1983 after adjusting for
inflation. The committee expects these funds to grow at about 1.5
percent per year in real terms through 1990 as shown in Figure 3.4.
NIH research grant expenditures rose substantially in 1983 after
successive real declines in 1981 and 1982 (Table 3.1, line 2c).
LaborForce(Table3.1,line3)
The labor force of Ph.D.s employed in biomedical science fields
totaled more than 71,000 in 1983. Slightly more than half of these
scientists are employed in academic institutions, but there was almost
no growth of this sector between 1981 and 1983. It would appear that
declining bioscience enrollments and slower growth in R and D
expenditures are diminishing academic demand for biomedical
scientists. Industrial employment of biomedical Ph.D.s is increasing
rapidly but this sector is still small relative to the academic
sector. The distribution of the labor force has shifted somewhat
toward the industrial sector since 1975--it has increased from 13.2
percent of the biomedical Ph.D. labor force in 1975 to 16.5 percent in
1983. At the same time, academic employment has declined from 56
percent to about 52 percent of the labor force. The remaining sectors
have generally retained their respective shares.
OCR for page 60
60
2,000
,800
,600
,400
,200
1 ,000
800
600
400
200
o
Actual
Pro jected
All School s .
Publ i c School s -
-
~_
-
-
_~- s~—
~ ~ ++ - ,
. ^~ .
~ ~ +4~+
~ ~ Pri vate School s
1
Chow 1
ti-.5%1Yr )
LOW ED ~ i me ~ ~ ( 0%/yr . )
1 1 1 1 1 1
64 66 68 70 72
74 76 78
F I SCAL YEAR
80 82 84 86 88 90
FIGURE 3.4 Biomedical science R and D expenditures in colleges and universities, by control of
institution, 1964-83, with projections to 1990 (1972 $, millions). See Appendix Table B9.
Within the academic sector there is a rapid diffusion of new
concepts and techniques from basic research to agriculture and
clinical disciplines. This transfer of knowledge has been facilitated
by the large postdoctoral group of scientists through which new idea S
and techniques are quite easily transmitted. Thus, there is
widespread enthusiasm for the opportunities created by recent advances
in this fast moving field of science.
OCR for page 61
61
SURVEY OF BIOTECHNOLOGY FIRMS
In 1983, this committee collaborated with the Congressional Office
of Technology Assessment in a joint effort to collect information about
employment of biomedical scientists in the developing biotechnology
industry. That survey of 265 firms obtained responses from 138, of
which 20 said they were not engaged in biotechnology as defined on the
questionnaire (the application of novel biological strategies such as
rDNA, cell fusion or immobilized cells or enzymes, for biochemical
processing). The results--described more fully in the committee's
1983 report--showed that most of the firms were formed after 1977, and
in 1983 employed about 12 biomedical Ph.D.s per firm. Total
employment in the industry is difficult to estimate because there are
no precise data on the actual number of biotechnology firms. The
Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) estimates that about 5,000
scientists were employed by 219 biotechnology firms in 1983 (OTA,
1984~. Probably half of these scientists were Ph.D.s.
This survey was repeated in 1985 as a joint effort of the
committee and the American Society for Microbiology. A total of 336
potential biotechnology firms were contacted. Responses were received
from 168 firms {50 percent) and 27 indicated that they were not engaged
in biotechnology activities, leaving 141 usable responses. The
questionnaire and a summary of responses are presented in Appendix E.
There are some signs that the formation of new firms has slowed
from the rapid pace of the 1970s. The peak was reached in 1981 when
26 of the respondents started operations in biotechnology {Figure 3.5~.
Since then there has been a pronounced fall off, with 17 firms
starting in 1982 and only 4 each in 1983 and 1984. Although there
appear to be more firms in the industry in 1985 than there were in
1983, we don't know the extent to which the apparent expansion is real
or simply due to better identification of biotechnology firms.
3n _
_
25 _
20 _
In
n
Pre-72 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
YEAR COMPANY STARTED BIOTECHNOLOGY R AND D
82 83 84
FIGURE 3.5 Percentage distribution of the year of firms' initiation of operations in the biotech-
nology industry. Data are from the Committee/ASM survey, 1985.
OCR for page 68
68
Total bioscience enrollments
High Middle Low
11/yr. -0.5%/yr. -satyr.
Bioscience R and D expenditures
in colleges & universities Satyr. 1.5~/yr. 0
Applying these growth rates to the latest data, we derive the 1990
levels under the above assumptions:
S = total bioscience enrollments
(492,900 in 1981)
US = 3-yr. moving average of
undergraduate enrollments
(369,100 in 1981)
GS = 3-yr. moving average of
graduate enrollments
(130,800 in 1983)
RD = bioscience R and D expenditures
($1,514 milt in 1982)
M = 3 yr. weighted average of R and D
($1,477 milt in 1982)
WS = 0.25 US ~ 0.75 GS
(189,600 in 1981)
High Middle Low
523~180 471,160
384,300 346~080
140/250 126,300
$1t890
199 r 274 182~160
423 J 630
311rl70
113 r 560
$1,536
$1'680 $1 r 536
166/313
Using these projections as input to the model, we now derive
estimates of the annual number of faculty positions expected to become
available each year during the period 1983-90 from expansion and
attrition due to death, retirement, and other causes (field-switching
and job changes). First we estimate demand created by expansion of
faculty (Figure 3.8~. To that we add demand created by attrition.
Our attrition estimates are based on data from the Survey of Doctorate
Recipients conducted every 2 years by the Office of Scientific and
Engineering Personnel of the National Research Council (Table 3.3),
augmented by a detailed study of faculty attrition rates by the
committee on Continuity in Academic Research Performance (NRC,
1979b). Attrition rates shown in Table 3.3 are 6 percent per year for
all causes in the 1981-83 period. This is up sharply from the 4.1
percent rate of the 1979-81 period (IOM, 1983b, p. 77~.
Most college and university faculties expanded rapidly in the
1960s to accommodate the surge in enrollments. Growth during the
1970s and 1980s has been slower. As a result, faculty age distribu-
tions have shifted upward. In the biosciences, the proportion of
academically employed Ph.D.s over age 60 has increased from 6.7
percent in 1977 to 8.6 percent in 1983 (see Appendix Table Boy. our
projections indicate that this proportion will be over 12 percent by
1991. One implication of this trend is that faculty attrition rates
will be higher in the late 1980s.
For projections to 1990, attrition of academically employed Ph.D.s
is estimated at 1.5 percent per year due to death and retirement. In
OCR for page 69
_________ Projected
° 20
45
40
35
30
25:
15t
10
5 _
O I , ~ 1 ~
62 64 66 68 70
~5 10lOlyr
titrate
~ As ~
__-~~~ Mi ddl e Est . ( 1. 80/0/yr . )
~c: _________________
Id te (-1 83,
Al 1 School,'
69
p,~` Publ i c School s
bar.
+~+ Private Schools
I 1 1 ' ' 1 1 1 1 ~
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
PI SCAL YEAR
FIGURE 3.8 Ph.D.s employed in the biomedical sciences at colleges and universities, by control of
institution, 1960-83, with projections to 1990. See Appendix Table BS.
the case of attrition due to other causes, we use high, middle, and
low estimates of 4 percent, 3.5 percent, and 3 percent,
respectively.
These computations are shown in Table 3.4. The three assumptions
about enrollment growth together with the three assumptions about
R and D expenditures give nine combinations of assumptions to be used
as input to the model.
Under the most optimistic assumptions, bioscience R and D expendi-
tures at academic institutions would grow by 3 percent per year through
1990 (assumption I of Table 3.4), driving the F/WS ratio to 0.254.2
These are higher than the 1 percent and 3 percent estimates used for
projections to 1988 in the last report.
2The 95 percent confidence limits on this estimate are 0.274 and 0.236,
respectively. Since the most optimistic assumptions attempt to define an
upper limit on our projections, we use the upper 95 percent confidence limit
on the F/WS ratio (0.274) as the most optimistic estimate.
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TABLE 3.3 Inflows and Outflows from Academic Employment for Biomedical Science Ph.D.sq
1981-83
I. Average Annual Attrition from Academic Employment in the Biomedical Sciences 1981-83
1. Total biomedical Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1981: 36,482
2. Leaving academic employment in the biomedical sciences each year to:
% of Academic
N Employment
a. nonacademic sectors 904 2.5
b. postdoctoral appointments 152 0.4
c. death and retirement 432 1.2
d. unemployed 212 0.6
e. other fieldsa 462 1.3
f. total attrition 2,162 6.0
II. Average Annual Accessions to Academic Employment in the Biomedical Sciences 1981-83
1. Total biomedical Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1983: 36,963
2. Entering academic employment in the biomedical sciences each year from:
% of Total
_N Accessions
a. nonacademic sectors 527 21.9
b. postdoctoral appointments 1,197 49.8
c. unemployed 110 4.6
d. Ph.D. recipients 1981-82b 569 23.7
e. total annual accessions 2,403 100.0
III. Balancing: 1981 academic employment—attrition + accessions = 1983 academic employment
36,482 - 2(2,162) + 2(2,403) = 36,964C
a These individuals were all academically employed in 1981 and 1983. The number shown represents the estimated net outflow
from biomedical fields to other fields.
b Based on postdoctoral plans of Ph.D. recipients, it is estimated that 70% of these new Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral
appointment before taking an academic position.
c Does not agree with line II.1 because of rounding.
SOURCES: National Research Council (1958-85, 1973-84).
We project academic demand by using the most optimistic estimate
of enrollment growth--1 percent per year (assumption A in Table
3.4--together with the estimated F/WS ratio. This produces an upper
estimate of faculty size of 54,700 bioscience Ph.D.S in 1990, for a
faculty growth rate of 5.7 percent per year. About 2,530 positions
per year would be created by faculty expansion, 690 per year would be
generated by attrition due to death and retirement, and 1,830 per year
would be generated by other attrition. The total number of academic
positions that would become available each year under these high
growth conditions is 5,050.
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TABLE 3.4 Projected Growth in Biomedical Science Ph.D. Faculty, 1983-90, Based on
Projections of Enrollment and R and D Expendituresa
Assumptions about Real R&D Expenditures (in
constant 1972 dollarsb) in the Biomedical Sciences in
Assumptions about Graduate Colleges and Universities ($1.5 billion in 1982)
and Undergraduate I II III
Enrollments in the Biomedical Will remain at
Sciences and Medical and Will grow at Will grow at current level
Dental Schools (493,000 3%/year to $1.9 1.5%/year to $1.7 ($1.5 billion)
students in 1981) billion in 1990 billion in 1990 through 1990
A. Will grow at 1%/yr., Expected size of biomedical Ph.D.
reaching 523,000 students faculty (F) in 1990 54,700 45,800 38,900
by 1990 Annual growth rate in F from
1983 to 1990 5.7% 3.1% 0.7%
Average annual increment due to
faculty expansion 2,530 1,270 270
Annual replacement needs due to:
death and retirements 690 620 570
other attritiond 1,830 1,450 1,140
Expected number of academic
positions to become available
annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 5,050 3,340 1,980
B. Will decline by 0.5%/yr. to Expected size of biomedical Ph.D.
471,000 students by 1990 faculty (F) in 1990 50,000 41,900 35,500
Annual growth rate in F from
1983 to 1990 4.4% 1.8% -0.6%
Average annual increment due to
faculty expansion 1,860 700 - 200
Annual replacement needs due to:
death and retirements 650 590 540
other attritiond 1,740 1,380 1,090
Expected number of academic
positions to become available
annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 4,250 2,670 1,430
C. Will decline by 2%/yr. to Expected size of biomedical Ph.D.
424,000 students by 1990 faculty (F) in 1990 45,600 38,200 32,400
Annual growth rate in F from
1983 to 1990 3.0% 0.5% - 1.8%
Average annual increment due to
faculty expansion 1,240 180 -650
Annual replacement needs due to:
death and retirements 620 560 520
other attritiond 1,650 1,320 1,040
Expected number of academic
positions to become available
annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 3,510 2,060 920
a Faculty is defined in this table as all academically employed Ph.D.s in biomedical fields, excluding postdoctoral appointees.
These projections are based on the following relationship:
(F/WS)~ = 0.395 [exp(-exp(2.013 - 0.001114M))] + 0.05, where F = faculty; WS = weighted average of last 3 years of
enrollments, i.e., (WS)~ = 0.25(US)~ + 0.75(GS)~, where (US)~ = 3-year moving average of bioscience undergraduate
enrollments and (GS)~ = 3-year moving average of bioscience graduate enrollments; M = weighted average of last 3 years
of biomedical science R and D expenditures in colleges and universities, i.e., M' = ~/4(R~ + 2R~ ~ + Rat 2). See Appendix
Tables B1, B6, and B9.
b Deflated by the Implicit GNP Price Deflator, 1972 = 100.0. See Appendix Table B7.
c Based on an estimated replacement rate of 1.5% annually due to death and retirement.
Based on high, middle, and low attrition rates of 4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively.
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Under the middle or best-guess assumptions (II-B in Table 3.4),
bioscience R and D expenditures at academic institutions would grow by
1.5 percent per year through 1990--yielding an F/WS ratio of 0.230--
and bioscience enrollment would decline by 0.5 percent per year to
471,000 students by 1990. The best estimate of bioscience Ph.D.
faculty size under these assumptions is 41,900, an increase of 700
positions or 1.8 percent per year over the 1983 level. Attrition
would add another 1,970 positions to give a total annual academic
demand of about 2,670 positions.
Under the low growth assumptions (III-C in Table 3.4), bioscience
and D expenditures at academic institutions would remain at the 1982
level through 1990 and consequently the bioscience F/WS ratio would
also remain at the 1982 level of 0.207 · 3 Bioscience enrollment
would decline by 2 percent per year, yielding a Ph.D. faculty size in
1990 of 32,400. That represents a drop of 650 positions per year, but
attrition would add 1,560, for a net demand of 920 per year.
ESTIMATING PREDOCTORAL AND POSTDOCTORAL
SUPPORT LEVELS UNDER NRSA PROGRAMS
Having obtained an estimate of the size of the academic market for
biomedical Ph.D.s through 1990, we are now in a position to assess the
level of predoctoral and postdoctoral training needed to satisfy that
demand. For this, we must consider how the system works at several
crucial stages of the process by which biomedical scientists are
trained and absorbed into career positions.
Postdoctoral Training Levels
The features of the postdoctoral training system which must be
considered in addition to the projections of faculty growth are as
follows:
the number of accessions to faculty positions who have {or
should have) postdoctoral research training,
2. the appropriate length of the postdoctoral research training
period,
the proportion of individuals in the postdoctoral research
training pipeline who are expected to choose academic careers,
the proportion of support to the total pool of postdoctoral
research trainees that should be provided by the federal
government.
3 The 95 percent confidence limits on this estimate are 0.220-0.195.
We use the lower limit of 0.195 to represent the most pessimistic
estimate of F/WS.
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It will be noted that some of these features reflect decisions by
individuals regarding career choice, and in that sense they are
independent of the system. However, there are other features--such as
the proportion of the total support for the postdoctoral pool that
should be assumed by the federal government--that can be controlled by
policy and program decisions.
Using the projections of academic demand derived in Table 3.4 and
the same set of conditions specified in the 1981 and 1983 reports, we
calculate in Table 3.5 the range of basic biomedical science postdoc-
toral trainees that should be supported by NRSA programs under the
specified conditions.
Line 1 of Table 3.5 is a summary of the projections of academic
demand for the extreme cases and the best-guess estimate derived in
Table 3.4.
Line 2 shows the number of academic positions to be filled by
individuals with postdoctoral research training experience. From the
data on inflows and outflows from academic employment in the
biosciences between 1981 and 1983 shown in Table 3.3, we-estimate that
70 percent of all vacancies will be filled by former postdoctoral
trainees. In the best-guess case, this number is estimated to be
1,870 per year between 1983 and 1990.
Line 3 indicates the size of the biomedical postdoctoral pool
required to supply the necessary number of individuals with
postdoctoral training under certain assumptions about the length of
the postdoctoral training period and the proportion of the pool
seeking academic employment. Currently, bioscience Ph.D.s are
typically spending about 3 years in postdoctoral appointments, up from
2 years in the early 1970s.
If the appropriate length of postdoctoral training is assumed to
be 3 years, then the pool size needed to produce 1,870 trained
scientists each year is three times 1,870 or 5,610. Further, if 60
percent of the trainees seek academic appointments after completing
their training, then the necessary pool size must be 9,350.
Line 4 shows the estimated number of biomedical science postdoc-
toral trainees that should be supported annually by NKSA programs under
different assumptions about the proportion of total support provided
by that source. The resulting range Is between 1,100 under the lowest
set of assumptions, and 5,890 under the highest set. The best-guesS
assumptions yield a range of 3,200-4,670 postdoctoral trainees.
Predoctoral Training Levels
A similar procedure can be used to estimate the level of
predoctoral training to be supplied under NRSA programs. Starting
with the number of postdoctoral trainees needed under the most likely
projections {Table 3.5, line 3--middle estimate), we may determine in
turn the number of Ph.D.s to be produced each year, the level of
graduate enrollments needed, and finally the number of predoctoral
trainees that should be in the pipeline. The calculations are shown
in Table 3.6. They depend on certain parameters that describe how the
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TABLE 3.5 Estimated Number of Basic Biomedical Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to
Meet Expected Academic Demand Through 1990 Under Various Conditions
Projected 198~90
High
Estimate
Middle Low
Estimate Estimate
2,670
Annual
Average
1981-83
1. Academic demand for biomedical Ph.D.s annual average: 5,050
920
2,400
a. due to expansion of faculty 2,530 700 - 640 240
b. due to death and retirements 690 590 520 430
c. due to other attritions 1,830 1,380 1,040 1,730
2. Total accession with postdoctoral research training-
annual average (assuming 70% of all accessions have
postdoctoral research training)
3. Size of biomedical postdoctoral pool annual average
~ . . . . . . . ~ . .
Size needed to meet academic demand assuming a 3-yr.
training period and portion of trainees seeking academic
positions is: 7,920
a. 60~o 11,780 9,350 3,200
b. 70% 10,100 8,010 2,740
4. Annual number of biomedical postdoctoral trainees to be
supported under NRSA programs:
a. If 40% of pool is supported under NSRA
b. If 50% of pool is supported under NSRA
3,535 1,870 640 1 20~1,600C
2,855 (1981-82)
4,040 4,710 3,20~3,740 1,10~1,280
5,05~5,890 4,00 - ,670 1,37~1,600
a Assumes an attrition rate due to death and retirement of 1.5% per year.
b Assumes replacement demand created by other attrition under the high, middle, and low estimates will be 4%, 3.5%, and
3%, respectively.
c Assumes that 70% of the 1981~2 Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral appointment before taking an academic position.
See Table 3.3.
SOURCES: Tables 3.3 and 3.4.
system works in the biomedical fields. For example, it is known that
almost 70 percent of each biomedical Ph.D. cohort plans to take a
postdoctoral appointment after graduation (Table 3.6, line 3~. our
data also show that about 9 or 10 percent of all bioscience graduate
students complete the Ph.D. program each year (Table 3.6, line 4), and
that NRSA programs recently have provided sunnort for 5 to 10 percent
of bioscience predoctoral students.
~ , _ _ ,= ~
Applying these system parameters, we derive the estimated number of
NRSA predoctoral trainees that should be in the pipeline, given our
projections of academic demand and the current status of the training
system (Table 3.6, line 5~. The result is a range of about 1,900-5,780
predoctoral trainees per year in the biosciences during the period
1983-90.
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TABLE 3.6 Estimated Number of Basic Biomedical Science Predoctoral Trainees to be
Supported Under NRSA Programs
Projected
198~90
Actual
1983
1. Estimated number of postdoctoral trainees
needed to satisfy demand under the
committee's most likely estimate (from
Table 3.5)
2. Annual attrition from postdoctoral pool if
average length of appointment is 3 years
3. Number of Ph.D.s needed each year to
maintain postdoctoral pool level if
percentage of Ph.D.s seeking a
postdoctoral appointment is:
a. 60%
b. 70%
4. Average graduate enrollment needed to
produce the required number of Ph.D.s if
annual completion rate is:a
a. 9%
b. 10%
5. Number of NRSA predoctoral traineeships
needed if percentage of graduate students
to be supported under NRSA programs is:
a. 5%
b. 10%
8,01~9,350
2,67~3,120
4,45~5,200
3,81~4,460
42,33~57,780
38,10~52,000
1,90~2,890
3,81~5,780
7,827
2,609
3,775
41,532
3,673 (1982)
a The completion rate is defined here as the ratio of Ph.D.s awarded in any year to graduate enrollments in the same year.
This ratio has varied in a narrow range generally between 0.09 and 0.1 since 1960. It is likely that many graduate students
in this field are candidates for the M.A. rather than the Ph.D. degree. See Appendix Tables B1 and B3.
SOURCES: Table 3.5, Appendix Tables B1 and B3.
SUMMARY
The committee's determination of the appropriate number of
trainees to be supported under NRSA programs in the basic biomedical
sciences has been based on estimates of academic demand and certain
assumptions about how the training system operates. Projections of
demand are derived from a model in which faculty size is dependent
upon enrollment and research funding. Graduate enrollment is thought
to have more influence on faculty demand than undergraduate enrollment,
so the previous model has been modified in this report to allocate
more weight to graduate enrollment.
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The resulting projections show a somewhat higher annual academic
demand through 1990 compared to previous projections through 1988.
This is true despite the fact that enrollment and research funding
assumptions are lower than previous ones. One reason is that the most
recent data for 1983 show that biomedical Ph.D. faculty has continued
to grow moderately even though enrollments are declining. Therefore,
the faculty/student ratio shows sharp increases in recent years, and
this has the effect of raising the projections of faculty size in
1990. However, the outlook is heavily dependent on the last few data
points and could change drastically with the next one or two
observations.
Another reason is the increase in attrition that is expected in
the late 1980s. Based on the faculty age distribution and data from
another study, we now estimate attrition due to death and retirement
at 1.5 percent per year through 1990, and 3.5 percent per year for
other reasons. These are up from the 1.0 percent per year and 3.0
percent, respectively, that we had projected through 1988.
Finally, there is the question of predoctoral support and how to
assess it in terms of national need. This task is made even more
difficult by the fact that the time horizon involved in predoctoral
training is longer than in postdoctoral training. Also, since
practically all predoctoral support comes from training grants rather
than fellowships, the issue of institutional support becomes another
factor to consider along with enrollment trends, Ph.D. production, the
postdoctoral pool size, alternate sources of support, and the
long-term outlook. Using the parameters of the current system as
guides, and with stability of the system as an important criterion, we
have estimated the level of predoctoral support that NRSA programs
should provide.
EVALUATION OF THE MARC HONORS UNDERGRADUATE
RESEARCH TRAINING PROGRAM
The Minority Access to Research Careers (MARC) program was created
by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) to
increase the number of biomedical scientists from minority groups.
The largest component of the MARC program is the Honors Undergraduate
Research Training Program. Trainees (junior and senior level honor S
students at schools with enrollments drawn substantially from minority
groups) receive tuition and stipend support and participate in a
specially structured curriculum. Exposure to ongoing research in the
biomedical sciences is a central component of the training experience.
The MARC Honors program has as its principal objective the
encouragement of minority students in the pursuit of graduate training
leading to the Ph.D. degree. It began in 1977 with 74 trainees at 12
participating schools. By 1984, there were 389 undergraduate trainees
at 52 programs involving 56 undergraduate institutions. As of August
1984, there were nearly 800 program alumni.
At the suggestion of NIGMS, this committee has undertaken an
evaluation of the Honors Undergraduate Research Training Program. A
complete report describing that evaluation will be published
separately. The central findings of the MARC Honors Evaluation are
described below.
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The MARC Honors program was established in response to the small
number of minority group members holding research doctorates in the
biomedical sciences. Examination of the most current data on
scientific employment and training demonstrates that minority group
members are still underrepresented at all stages of the scientific
career. While some reduction of the minority/nonminority disparity
has taken place, substantial underrepresentation of minorities remains
the rule.
Site visits to five MARC Honors training programs reveal a diverse
array of program activities adapted to the needs of the recipient
institutions and their students. The program (often working in
conjunction with another NIH program, the Minority Biomedical Research
Support Program) brings guest speakers to campus, develops new
courses, purchases laboratory equipment, and fosters institutional
connections between program schools and major research centers. Most
of these activities benefit the entire scientific community on campus.
Individual trainees receive stipends and work closely with faculty
members on laboratory research projects. As part of their training,
they also attend scientific seminars, conferences, and meetings. A
summer research project (usually at a major research university) is a
significant part of the MARC Honors experience. Trainees report that
the laboratory exposure and close contact with faculty members is an
important part of their academic and professional development. Many
credit these experiences with shaping their decision to pursue
research careers.
Faculty members report high levels of motivation among the MARC
Honors students and note several examples of published research by
undergraduate trainees. At almost every institution, the faculty
members identified highly talented students who might not have been
able to finish school without the availability of MARC stipends.
Two important issues emerged from the site visits. There seems to
be some disagreement over the optimal location of the trainees' summer
research experience. Some MARC faculty members feel that the student
is best served by continuing a research project at the home
institution. Others find the benefits of external placement (personal
growth as well as broader research experience) to be significant.
Emphasis on external placement varies within and across program
institutions.
A second issue concerns the selection of trainees. The MARC
Honors program was designed explicitly to prepare students for
research careers, yet many talented undergraduate science majors plan
to pursue professional (but not necessarily research) careers. The
question of how to treat students with professional career plans is a
crucial issue in the selection of MARC Honors applicants.
A questionnaire inquiring about educational and occupational
status was sent to all MARC Honors program alumni. Sixty-five percent
of the 821 former trainees in the study population returned the
questionnaires. Survey results show that 76.1 percent of the former
trainees have enrolled in graduate programs at some point. As of
November 12, 1984 (the survey reference date), 43.5 percent of the
former trainees were enrolled in doctorate programs (128 in M.D. or
D.D.S. programs, 86 in Ph.D. programs and 3 in M.D./Ph.D. programs).
Another 15.1 percent were enrolled in master's degree programs. Since
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the first MARC Honors cohort graduated in 1978 (and the first full,
two-year trainee cohort in 1979), there has been limited time in which
to complete work on a Ph.D. degree. By the fall of 1984, 22 people
from the first 3 trainee cohorts (21.2 percent) had earned doctorate
degrees. Of the completed doctorates, the vast majority were M.D.S;
only one respondent had completed a Ph.D. at the time of the survey.
Most of the former trainees who were no longer in school were employed
in science or engineering fields {62.4 percent). The unemployment
rate of former trainees was 9.2 percent and was concentrated among
those without graduate degrees. while exact comparisons cannot be
made, the rates of graduate school attendance and employment in
science fields for the former MARC Honors trainees are above the
levels found in the most closely comparable national data.
Overall, 35.7 percent of the respondents expected to be in
research careers by the time they are 35 years old. Among those
planning careers in the health professions, a smaller fraction (13.0
percent) expected to be doing research at age 35. Only a small
fraction of the former trainees (7.4 percent) expect to be in jobs
unrelated to science or engineering.
The survey did not reveal any serious deficiencies in the MARC
Honors program. While some students left graduate or professional
programs before receiving a degree (22.2 percent), nearly half are
currently enrolled in another graduate program. More students
withdrew from master's degree programs than from doctorate programs.
Students reported a high level of satisfaction with the MARC Honors
program in general and with the research component in particular.
In an attempt to gauge the institutional impact of the MARC Honors
program, the percentage of graduates majoring in biology was examined
at MARC and nonMARC institutions. The percentage of biology majors
has remained level since the late 1970s for minority students and has
decreased for white students. At MARC schools, however, the
percentage of biology majors increased (especially among minority
students). Both the size and the length of the programs were
associated with higher rates of degrees earned in biology. These
effects persisted after the impact of other institutional
characteristics were taken into consideration.
A FOLLOW-UP STUDY OF FORMER NIH POSTDOCTORAL TRAINEES AND FELLOWS
A study of the career achievements of NIH postdoctoral trainees
and fellows is currently being conducted. The employment, grant, and
publication activity of biomedical scientists with NIH postdoctoral
appointments is being compared to that of biomedical scientists
without NIH postdoctoral appointments. Due to the differences in
career patterns and sources of data, separate analyses will be
conducted for M.D. and Ph.D. scientists.
For Ph.D.s, the NIH group will be divided into trainees and
fellows based on the terms of the most recent NIH appointment. The
non-NIH group will be subdivided according to their plans for
postdoctoral training at the time they completed their Ph.D.
It is expected that this follow-up study will be completed in 1986
and a separate report on it will be published by the committee.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
biomedical scientists
