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OCR for page 79
4. Behavioral Sciences
Abstract
The academic labor market for behavioral science
Ph.D.s continues to expand at a moderate rate of
growth. Academic employment of Ph.D.s and post-
doctoral training increased in 1983 and are higher
than they were in the mid-1970s. Most of the growth
has occurred in the field of clinical psychology.
Behavioral Ph.D. production rebounded in 1983 from the
decline in 1982, but the number of new doctorate
recipients is only a slight fraction above the level
recorded in the late 1970s. Concurrent with the
continued expansion of the academic labor market are
continuing declines in R and D funding, undergraduate
enrollments, and first-year graduate enrollments.
Recently, total graduate enrollments in the behavioral
sciences have begun to fall. However, there appears
to be a substantial amount of behavioral science
courses being taught to graduate students at
professional schools--public health, law, medicine,
and business--which tends to increase the demand for
behavioral scientists.
The shift toward clinical psychology that began
in the mid-1970s is continuing. In 1977, clinical
psychology became the dominant behavioral science
Ph.D. employment field and now accounts for about 45
percent of the behavioral Ph.D. labor force, up from
38 percent in 1975.
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Within the behavioral science fields, it is evident that a strong
movement into clinical psychology has occurred in recent years. There
has been an increase, both absolute and relative to other areas, in
the number of Ph.D.s who identify themselves as clinical psychologists
and in the number of new Ph.D. degrees being granted in that field.
From the standpoint of the federal government's research program in
the behavioral sciences, this trend is cause for some concern since
most clinical psychologists work outside the academic sector and many
do not contribute to the research effort. Even within the academic
sector, clinical psychologists are more likely than other
psychologists to be involved in the provision of services and other
79
OCR for page 80
80
non-research activities. One of the principal purposes of the
government's research training programs is to provide an adequate
supply of scientists with current knowledge of their fields who can be
relied on to carry out the agencies' research agenda competently and
productively. Practically all of this research is done by Ph.D.
scientists in colleges and universities, so we are especially
concerned in this study about the career prospects and opportunities
in the academic sector. Academic employment of behavioral science
Ph.D.s has increased without interruption since the early 1960s (which
is as far back as our data go). However, this growth has not been
uniform throughout the behavioral sciences. Academic positions in
nonclinical fields of psychology have decreased since 1981. Since the
bulk of psychological research has been carried out in the academic
sector by nonclinical psychologists, this trend is of some possible
significance for future research. In this chapter we will examine
these trends more closely and make some projections of academic demand
and training needs through:1990.
As a result of suggestions made at public hearings and in private
communications, the data on behavioral scientists are disaggregated In
this report to a greater degree than has been done in the past. In
the early work of this committee, the behavioral sciences--psychology,
sociology, anthropology, and speech and-hearing sciences--were treated
as a single group. In 1978 the behavioral sciences were divided into
clinical and nonclinical fields. This disaggregation proved helpful
because it enabled the identification of divergent market trends
within the behavioral sciences. In the current report we carry the
disaggregation one step further and divide the nonclinical fields into
nonclinical psychology and other behavioral sciences. This yields
three behavioral science subdivisions:
--clinical psychology;
--nonclinical psychology; and
--other behavioral science fields (sociology, anthropology,
and speech pathology/audiologyj.~
CURRENT SUPPLY/DEMAND INDICATORS
With this additional level of disaggregation, substantial
differences among disciplines and education levels {graduate and
undergraduate) begin to emerge. For example, undergraduate
enrollments in psychology have not been subject to the decline
experienced by the other behavioral fields. Here are some other
highlights:
iThe nomenclature used in the NRC surveys was changed in 1983.
Speech pathology/audiology replaced speech and hearing sciences. This
field is more clinically oriented than either sociology or
anthropology but it is not part of clinical psychology, and is too
small (113 Ph.D.s awarded in 1983) to be considered separately.
OCR for page 81
81
Graduate enrollments in the behavioral sciences have been
less susceptible to attrition than have undergraduate
enrollments. Enrollments at the graduate level rose every
year from 1978 through 1981 and only in 1983 did enrollments
fall by more than a fraction of a percentage point. In 1983
graduate enrollments in psychology declined less than those
in other behavioral science fields.
R and D funding for behavioral science research decreased in
1983. Research funding for psychology did not decline,
however. It remained at its 1982 level which (after
adjusting for inflation) was about equal to the 1975 funding
levels. The decline in R and D funding occurred in
behavioral fields outside of psychology.
Employment in the behavioral sciences continued to grow along
the same lines observed in earlier reports. The
self-employment and business sectors were the most rapidly
expanding areas. These patterns were general across all
C! 1 phi; `, i c i mn c: of Ph ~ huh AN; or a 1 .~ i annex . Academic employment
.
continued to grow in 1983, but the increases were
.
concentrated in the fields outside of psychology: sociology,
anthropology, and speech pathology/audiology.
The number of behavioral scientists on postdoctoral
appointments rose in 1983. Clinical psychology had the
greatest increase followed by large increases for the
combined category of sociology, anthropology and speech
pathology/audiology. Nonclinical psychology had fewer
postdoctoral appointments in 1983 than in 1981. The number
of nonclinical psychologists with postdoctoral appointments
fell to its lowest level since the committee began monitoring
these data. While some of these shifts may be due to
sampling fluctuations, 2 the change could signal an imporant
decline in research potential. Clinical psychologists on
postdoctoral appointments are often being trained in clinical
skills; nonclinical psychologists on postdoctoral
appointments are more likely to augment the pool of
researchers in the behavioral sciences.
In the following sections the supply and demand outlook for
behavioral scientists is examined in greater detail.
2The data on the PheDe labor force came from a 16 percent sample of
the doctorate population. See NRC, 1985 for a discussion of sampling
error.
OCR for page 82
82
Enrolknents(Tables4.~-4.3 and Figured)
Total enrollments in the behavioral sciences (graduate and
undergraduate) declined steadily from 1976 through 1980 (Table 4.1,
line 4a). 3 In 1981, the downward trend was halted and behavioral
science enrollments rose for the first time since the early 1970s.
The long-term decline in enrollments is due exclusively to trends for
undergraduate majors. Graduate enrollments in the behavioral sciences
increased during the late 1970s and have remained stable (near 64,000)
since 1978. Only in 1983 was there a non-tr ivial decline in
behavioral science graduate enrollments.
800
700
600
500
400
300
Z 200
100
o
I I I I 1 1
64 66 68 70 72 74
FISCAL YEAR
/ Total Behavioral
Psychol onyx
Other Behavi oral ~ ~`
76 78 80 82
FIGURE 4.1 Behavioral science undergraduate and graduate enrollments in
colleges and universities, 1964-81. See Appendix Tables C1, C4-C8.
3The enrollment data in Tables 4.1 through 4.3 come from two
sources. Undergraduate enrollments are estimated from U.S. Department
of Education Higher Education General Information Surveys (HEGIS).
Graduate enrollments are from National Science Foundation Surveys of
Graduate Students and Postdoctorals.
OCR for page 83
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OCR for page 84
84
TABLE 4.2 Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators for Clinical and Nonclinical
Psychology Ph.D.s
Fiscal Year
Growth
Rate Latest
from 1975 to Annual
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Latest Year Change
1. SUPPLY INDICATORS (New Entrants):
Nonclinical Psychology:
a. Ph.D. production 1,607 1,590 1,637 1,591 1,582 1,517 1,615 1,477 1,545 - 0.5% 4.6%
b. % of Ph.D.s without specific
employment prospects at graduation 13.1% 16.3% 15.5% 16.3% 14.6% 13.1% 12.2% 15.6% 16.3% 2.8% 4.5%
c. Postdoctoral appointments 398 n/a 394 n/a 527 n/a 511 n/a 302 - 4.4% - 23.1%
Clinical Psychology:
d. Ph.D. production 1,144 1,293 1,353 1,464 1,509 1,581 1,743 1,681 1,762 5.5% 4.8%
e. % of Ph.D.s without specific
employment prospects at graduation 14.7% 14.8% 16.0% 17.6% 16.3% 14.6% 14.8% 15.7% 16.9% 1.8% 7.6%
f. Postdoctoral appointments 156 n/a 357 n/a 302 n/a 262 n/a 466 14.7% 33.4%
2. DEMAND INDICATOR:
a. Psychology R&D at colleges and
universities (1972 $, milt) 63.1 58.2 60.1 59.0 60.7 62.3 65.9 63.7 63.6 0.1% -0.2%
3. LABOR FORCED
Ph.D.s employed in nonclinical psychology
fields:
a. Total 15,387 n/a 16,102 n/a 16,688 n/a 18,791 n/a 19,431 3.0% 1.7%
b. Academic (excl. postdocs.) 10,863 n/a 10,905 n/a 11,538 n/a 12,586 n/a 12,404 1.7% - 0.7%
c. Business 1,218 n/a 1,344 n/a 1,355 n/a 1,827 n/a 2,258 8.0% 11.2%
d. Governments 1,170 n/a 1,404 n/a 1,164 n/a 1,235 n/a 1,320 1.5% 3.4%
e. Hospitals/clinics 470 n/a 447 n/a 401 n/a 905 n/a 1,328 13.9% 21. 1%
f. Nonprofit 560 n/a 519 n/a 574 n/a 507 n/a 629 1.5% 11.4%
g. Self-employed 401 n/a 443 nla 321 n/a 631 n/a 451 1.5% - 15.5%
h. Other (incl. postdocs.) 527 n/a 649 n/a 961 n/a 806 n/a 635 2.4% - 11.2%
i. Unemployed and seeking 178 n/a 391 n/a 374 n/a 294 n/a 406 10.9% 17.5%
Ph.D.s em~ployed in clinical psychology
fields:
j. Total 14,846 n/a 17,578 n/a 21,268 n/a 23,775 n/a 26,285 7.4% 5.1%
k. Academic (excl. postdocs.) 5,140 n/a 5,438 n/a 5,790 n/a 6,172 n/a 6,370 2.7% 1.6%
1. Business 165 n/a 409 n/a 417 n/a 880 n/a 1,004 25.3% 6.8%
m. Government. 1,252 n/a 1,216 n/a 1,671 n/a 1,653 n/a 1,854 5.0% 5.9%
n. Hospitals/clinics 4,425 n/a 5,102 n/a 5,702 n/a 5,937 n/a 5,737 3.3% - 1.7%
o. Nonprofit 363 n/a 662 n/a 1,093 n/a 1,032 n/a 1,165 15.7% 6.2%
p. Self-employed 2,292 n/a 3,201 n/a 4,785 n/a 6,264 n/a 7,999 16.9% 13.0%
q. Other (incl. postdocs.) 1,151 n/a 1,468 n/a 1,674 n/a 1,629 n/a 1,995 7.1% 10.7%
r. Unemployed and seeking 58 n/a 82 n/a 136 n/a 208 nta 161 13.6% - 12.0%
4. PSYCHOLOGY ENROLLMENTS:
a. Total undergraduate and graduate 425,000 434,000 419,000 422,000 408,000 415,000 426,000 n/a n/a 0.04% 2.7%
b. Est. undergraduates 392,000 399,000 384,000 383,000 369,000 375,000 385,000 n/a n/a —0.3% 2.7%
c. Total graduate 32,794 35,318 35,363 38,628 39,207 39,786 40,636 40,691 40,098 2.5% - 1.5%
d. Est. nonclinical graduate 17,954 18,393 18,099 18,915 18,856 18,608 18,985 19,039 18,761 0.6% -1.5%
e. Est. clinical graduate 14,840 16,925 17,264 19,713 20,351 21,178 21,651 21,652 21,337 4.6% - 1.5%
a Since labor force data are not available for 1982, latest annual change represents average annual growth rate from 1981-83.
b Also includes FFRDC laboratories.
c Estimate~d by the formula U; = (Aj+2/Bj+21C;, where U; = psychology undergraduate enrollment in year i; Ai+2 = psychology B.A. degrees awarded in year i+2; Bi+2 = total
B.A. degrees awarded in year i + 2; C; = total undergraduate enrollment in year i. The FY 1981 figure is a preliminary estimate.
SOURCES: NRC (1958-85, 1973-84); NSF (1973-85a, 1975-85); U.S. Department of Education (1948-81, 1948-84, 1959-79, 1961-84a, 1961-84b, 1973-82, 197~83).
OCR for page 85
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OCR for page 86
86
Psychology Enrollments
Most of the decrease in behavioral science enrollments is found in
disciplines other than psychology. Psychology enrollments have been
very stable since 1975 while enrollments in the other behavioral
sciences have declined (Figure 4.1~. Total psychology enrollment
(graduate and undergraduate combined) was approximately 425,000 in
1975 and approximately 426,000 in 1981 (Table 4.2, line 4a).
Undergraduate psychology enrollments declined in 1977, 1978, and 1979
and rose again in 1980 and 1981. At the same time that undergraduate
enrollments were declining, graduate enrollments in psychology rose.
The number of psychology graduate students grew rapidly from 1975
through 1978 and smaller gains in enrollments continued through 1982.
Only in 1983 did the graduate enrollments in psychology decline.
almost all of the growth in psychology graduate enrollments was
due to students in clinical specialties. The clinical fields grew
each year from 1975 through 1982. During this period the average
growth rate for clinical psychology enrollments was 5.6 percent (Table
4.2, line 4e). In more recent years the clinical growth rate has
slowed. Nonclinical psychology graduate enrollments have been
extremely stable, rising from 17,954 in 1975 to 19,039 in 1982 (Table
4.2, line 4d). In 1983 both clinical and nonclinical psychology
graduate enrollments fell by 1.5 percent.
Other Behavioral Science Enrollments
Total graduate and undergraduate enrollments in behavioral science
disciplines other than psychology have declined steadily since 1975.
The rate of decline in recent years is only slightly smaller than the
average decline over the entire period (Table 4.3, line 4a). Most of
the decline is due to trends in undergraduate enrollments which fell
from 276,000 in 1975 to 197~000 in 1981. Graduate enrollments in
these behavioral science fields rose at the end of the 1970s and have
begun to fall in 1982 and 1983. Over the entire 1975 to 1983 period,
the average growth rate for other behavioral science graduate
enrollments has been 0~2 percent (Table 4.3, line 4c).
In summary, the trends in behavioral science enrollments vary by
field and by educational level. Undergraduate enrollments have fallen.
This decline is less pronounced in psychology and more concentrated in
the other behavioral science fields. Graduate enrollments increased
in the late 1970s and have not declined appreciably in recent years.
Most of the expansion in graduate enrollments has been due to the
growing number of graduate students in clinical psychology.
OCR for page 87
87
Reliability of Behavioral Science Undergraduate Enrollment Estimates
In the preceding discussion, the estimates of undergraduate enroll-
ments were based on earned baccalaureate degrees and thus tend to
measure the number of students majoring in behavioral sciences. Some
observers have suggested that the role of the behavioral sciences in
undergraduate education may be underestimated by relying on number of
majors rather than on number of course enrollments. The argument is
based on the view that behavioral science courses are frequently taken
as requirements or electives by non-majors. Thus, the proportion of
students in behavioral science courses may exceed the proportion of
behavioral science majors and it is possible that the committee's
estimates of enrollments in these fields underestimate the true
teaching loads. We have undertaken an examination of that possibility.
Course enrollment data are not collected in a systematic and
comprehensive manner by federal agencies. However, a 1982 survey by
the American Council on Education (ACE) collected course enrollment
data in science, engineering, and the humanities for the fall of 1980
(Atelsek and Anderson, 1982~. The ACE data were obtained from a
stratified sample of 698 institutions, of which 498 (71 percent)
provided usable responses.
The hypothesis that the number of behavioral science majors is not
a good estimator of teaching loads in these fields can be tested by
comparing course enrollments with the number of B.A. degrees granted
in each field. If the service load is heavy, course enrollments in a
field--expressed as a percentage of total course enrollments--should
be greater than B.A. degrees in the field--expressed as a percentage
of total B.A. degrees. In other words, one would expect that for
fields with heavy service loads:
where:
CEi ~ BAi
GET BAT
CEi = course enrollments in field i
CET = total course enrollments in all fields
BAi = B.A. degrees awarded in field i
BAT = total B.A. degrees awarded.
The relevant data are shown in Table 4.4. Course enrollment data
are shown for fall 1980 and B.A. degrees are shown for 1982. Note that
in math and English, fields known for high service loads, the shares
of undergraduate course enrollments are much higher than the shares of
bachelor's degrees. In the behavioral fields that is not the case.
OCR for page 88
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OCR for page 89
89
In psychology, CEi = 8.3% and BAi = 10.6%
CET B. ~
In the social sciences, 4 CEi = 16.0% compared to BAi = 22.2%
CET BAT
These data do not seem to support the hypothesis that the service
load in behavioral fields when measured by course enrollments is
greater than when measured by majors. However, more conclusive
evidence may be needed. The data cover only a single year and perhaps
the relationships have been changing over time.
At the graduate level, the situation may be different. There
appears to be a substantial number of behavioral sciences courses
being offered to graduate students in professional schools such as
public health, law, medicine, and business. In schools of public
health, for example, the accreditation rules require behavioral
science courses to be included in the core curriculum. In business
schools, courses are offered in marketing and industrial psychology,
and sociology of organizations. Law students may take courses in
research on jury selection, and medical students are offered courses
in psychopathology, death and dying, and public health.
Ph.D.Production(Tables4.~-4.3 and Figure4.2)
In 1983, 4,318 Ph.D.s were granted in the behavioral sciences
(Table 4.1, line la). This represents an increase of 3.1 percent over
the 1982 level. All of the growth in behavioral science Ph.D.
production is due to the rising number of psychology Ph.D.s (Table
4.2, lines la and ld). The number of new Ph.D.s in clinical psychology
rose by 4.8 percent in 1983; the rate of increase for nonclinical
psychology Ph.D.s was only slightly lower (4.6 percent). In both
cases the 1983 gains reversed the drop in Ph.D. production observed in
1982. It is only when long-term growth--e.g., 1975 to present--is
considered that a difference between clinical and nonclinical
psychology Ph.D. production is found (Figure 4.2~. The number of new
doctorates in clinical psychology had a growth rate of 5.5 percent,
while in nonclinical areas of psychology the rate of growth was -0.5
percent.
In the behavioral science fields other than psychology there was a
decline in Ph.D. production in 1983. The number of new Ph.D.s fell
from 1,030 in 1982 to 1,011 in 1983 (Table 4.3, line la). This
decline of 1.8 percent is roughly equivalent to the annual rate of
change from 1975 through 1983.
4The following fields were included in the social sciences in the
ACE survey: agricultural economics, anthropology, archeology,
economics, geography, history of science, linguistics, political
science, and sociology.
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94
In the other behavioral sciences, employment in hospitals,
businesses, and self-employment continued to grow in 1983, but at a
much higher rate than before (Table 4.3, lines 3a-3i). Academic
employment also rose for this group at a level slightly greater than
the average growth rate for the 1975 to 1983 period. Fewer persons
were employed by government and nonprofit corporations and (like
nonclinical psychologists) unemployment rose in 1983 for other
behavioral scientists. Similar trends are reported by Huber (1985),
who examined the employment patterns of sociologist separately from
those of other behavioral scientists.
Since 1973 there has been only slight growth in the academic
employment of behavioral scientists. Areas of rapid growth have been
in the nonacademic sectors. The changing employment distribution of
behavioral scientists (favoring clinical and other nonacademic
settings) may have important implications for the future of behavioral
science research. Psychologists in human service settings devote a
much smaller portion of their time to research than do psychologists
in academic settings (Pion and Lipsey, 1984~. The shifting employment
picture has had a subsequent effect on academic departments. Pion and
Lipsey report that the percentage of "academic" programs in psychology
has decreased while the percentage of clinical and counseling programs
has increased.
The Behavioral Ph.D. Faculty/Student Ratio
In the biomedical and clinical fields, faculty/student ratios have
had a strong positive correlation with R and D expenditures, but no
such relationship can be found for the behavioral sciences--faculty/
student ratios have continued to rise while R and D expenditures and
enrollments have declined (Figure 4.5~.
In its 1983 report, the committee speculated on the reasons for
these apparently conflicting trends. Several possibilities were
considered--enrichment of faculty by Ph.D.s, graduate enrollment
trends, increasing part-time employment, and inaccurate enrollment
estimates. Evidence has accumulated on each of these considerations,
and we are now in a better position to assess the significance of each
of these potential factors.
Part-time Employment
Part-time academic employment of behavioral science Ph.D.s has
been increasing much more rapidly than full-time employment since
1973. However, it still constitutes only a very minor portion of
total employment and does not seem to be an important factor in the
growth of Ph.D. faculty.
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95
Academically Employed Behavioral Science Ph.D.s
FY Total Full-time Part-Time ~ Part-Time
1973 19,928 19,220 708 3.6
1983 29,776 28,091 1,685 5.7
SOURCE: Appendix Table C17.
0.046
0.042
0.038
lo
-
~ 0.034
z
Lo
~ 0.030
-
0.026
0.022
0.018
_
,
l
_
O. 000-L 1 1 1
Psychology ~<
Tota ~ /
Behavioral
i/
/
f
f
-
f
if Behavioral
64 66 68 70 72 74
FISCAL YEAR
76 78 80 82
FIGURE 4.5 Behavioral science Ph.D. faculty/student ratio, 1964-81.
See Appendix Table C16.
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96
Accuracy of Enrollment Estimates
The argument that the committee's data on behavioral science
majors underestimates the behavioral science undergraduate course
enrollment was discussed earlier. From the examination of enrollment
data for 1984, it appears that the use of data on majors as an
approximation for enrollments does not underestimate the share of the
undergraduate teaching load attributed to the behavioral sciences.
Enrichment
As the number of behavioral scientists employed by colleges and
universities has expanded over the past 20 years, an increasing
proportion of them have been Ph.D.s. This process is known as
enrichment. It occurs as Ph.D.s replace non-Ph.D.s on the faculty, or
as non-Ph.D. faculty members receive Ph.D. degrees. Much of the
increase of Ph.D.s on behavioral science faculties indecent years can
be explained by this process. In 1966 only 57 percent of the
academically employed behavioral scientists had Ph.D.s; by 1983, the
figure had risen to 79 percent (Table 4.5~. More importantly, the
Ph.D. component has continued to increase since 1977 even though total
academic employment of behavioral scientists has declined.
Enrichment is likely to have had its greatest impact at colleges
and universities without doctoral programs. Doctorate-granting
universities have had a high percentage of Ph.D.s on their faculty for
several decades. However, some of the increase in the proportion of
Ph.D. faculty could be due to changes in the timing of entry into the
academic labor market. During the period of rapidly rising behavioral
science enrollments, young scholars frequently took faculty positions
without having completed their dissertation. Data from the Doctorate
Records File indicate that 24.1 percent of the new behavioral science
Ph.D.s in 1972 had been employed on college or university faculties
during the year prior to receipt of their doctorate degree. As they
finished their degrees, the number of Ph.D. faculty members rose.
With the passing of the period of high enrollments and the onset of a
much more competitive market, the employment of scholars without
completed degrees became steadily less common. Only 10.2 percent of
the 1982 behavioral science Ph.D. recipients reported faculty
employment in the year prior to the receipt of their doctorate. This
would also serve to increase the proportion of faculty members with
Ph.D.s.
Graduate Enrollment Trends
Behavioral science graduate enrollments have only recently begun
to decline after growing steadily throughout the 1970s. The table
below shows that the graduate component has almost doubled in size
relative to total behavioral science enrollments since 1970.
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97
Behavioral Science Enrollments
.
Total Graduate
Behavioral Behavioral
FY Enrollments Enrollments
# % of Total
1970 637 ~ 000 36 t 500 5 e 7
1975 723~000 55~400 7~7
1980 645~000 64~200 lO.Q
1981 648 ~ 000 65 ,200 10 el
TABLE 4.5 Behavioral Scientists Employed in Colleges and Universities, 1961-83
Totala Ph.D.sb Non-Ph.D.sC
F~scal
Year N % N % N %
1961 13,700 100.0
1962 n/a 5,339
1963 n/a n/a
1964 n/a 8,143
1965 15,691 100.0 n/a
1966 17~304d 100.0 9,783 56.5 7,521 43.5
1967 18,916 100.0 n/a ~Ja
1968 21,574d 100.0 12,915 59.9 8,659 40.1
1969 24,231 100.0 n/a n/a
1970 26,180d 100.0 16,175 61.8 10,005 38.2
1971 28~129 100.0 n/a n/a
1972 29,744d 100.0 n/a n/a
1973 31,359 100.0 19,928 63.1 11,572 36.9
1974 32,980 100.0 n/a n/a
1975 35,883 100.0 23,624 65.9 12,252 34.1
1976 38,121 100.0 n/a n/a
1977 39,237 100.0 25,582 65.2 13,655 34.8
1978 39,159 100.0 n/a n/a
1979 38,458d 100.0 26,896 69.9 11,562 30.1
1980 37,758 100.0 n/a n/a
1981 38,074 100.0 28,235 74.5 9,839 25.5
1982 38,335 100.0 n/a n/a
1983 37,875 100.0 29,776 78.6 8,099 21.4
a Includes psychologists and sociologists only.
b Includes psychologists, sociologists, anthropologists, and speech pathologists/audiologists.
c Obtained by subtracting number of Ph.D.s from total behavioral scientists employed in colleges and universities.
d Interpolated.
SOURCES: NRC (197~84); NSF (1965 84).
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98
Since graduate education traditionally puts greater demands on
Ph.D. faculty members than does undergraduate education, it seems
reasonable to conclude that the relative growth of graduate
enrollments has helped to maintain the growth of behavioral science
Ph.D. faculty.
The best explanation for the steady growth in behavioral science
Ph.D.s employed at colleges and universities is that it is due mainly
to the enrichment process. The growing importance of graduate
education in the behavioral sciences, and its more intensive demands
on faculty time, can also be seen as a contributing factor.
THE MARKET OUTLOOK
Projections of Academic Demand for Behavioral Ph.D.s
The number of behavioral science Ph.D.s employed in the academic
sector from 1962 to 1983 forms a typical growth pattern--rapidly
increasing in the early stages and slowly increasing in the later ones
{Figure 4.6~. To obtain projections of academic demand, a Gompertz-
type curve has been fitted to the time series from 1962 to 1983, and
extrapolated to 1990 as shown in Figure 4.6. This provides estimates
of the size of the Ph.D. faculty in 1990 from which we can estimate
the average annual demand due to expansion of faculty. The 95 percent
confidence limits are used as the upper and lower bounds on this
estimate.
35
30
Ed or
n3 Cal
i)
:~
o
Cat
4~
20
15
10
5
Am/
/~'
62 64 66 68 70 72
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90
F I SCAL YEAR
FIGURE 4.6 Behavioral science Ph.D.s employed in colleges and universities, 1962-83. Solid
line represents a growth curve of the form: Y = (K-C)exp(-ea~bt) + C fitted to the data for
1962-83. Parameters derived from these 11 observations are: K= 35,000; C = 2,500;
a = 1.73314; b = 0.12466; R2 = 0.997. Curve has an inflection point at 1968. Broken lines
represent 9570 confidence limits on the estimated curve. See Appendix Table C12.
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99
Additional demand is generated by attrition due to death, retire-
ment, field-switching, and job changes. Estimates for these attrition
rates are derived from the National Research Council's biennial Survey
of Doctorate Recipients and are shown in Table 4.6. Because of
expected increases in the age distribution of academically employed
behavioral Ph.D.s in the next few years (Appendix Table C24), we
expect faculty attrition rates to increase. Previously we have
assumed a 1 percent per year attrition rate due to death and
retirement through 1988. For projections to 1990, we use an attrition
rate of 1.5 percent per year for death and retirement, and 3.5 percent
per year (+0.5 percent) for other causes as suggested by the data in
Table 4.6. The calculations are shown in Table 4.7.
TABLE 4.6 Inflows and Outflows from Academic Employment for Behavioral Science Ph.D.s,
1981-83
I. Average Annual Attrition from Academic Employment in the Behavioral Sciences 1981-83
1. Total behavioral science Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1981: 28,235
2. Leaving academic employment in the behavioral sciences each year to:
% of Academic
N Employment
a. nonacademic sectors 875 3.1
b. postdoctoral appointments 53 0.2
c. death and retirement 338 1.2
d. unemployed 205 0.7
e. total attrition 1,471 5.2
II. Average Annual Accessions to Academic Employment in the Behavioral Sciences 1981-83
1. Total behavioral science Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1983: 29,776
2. Entering academic employment in the behavioral sciences each year from:
% of Total
N Accessions
a. nonacademic sectors 601 26.8
b. postdoctoral appointments 107 4.8
c. unemployed 151 6.7
d. Ph.D. recipients 1981-82a 1,164 51.9
e. other fieldsb 219 9.8
f. total annual accessions 2,242 100.0
III. Balancing: 1981 academic employment - attrition + accessions = 1983 academic employment
28,235 - 2(1,471) + 2(2,242) = 29,777c
a Based on postdoctoral plans of Ph.D. recipients, it is estimated that 15% of these new Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral
appointment before taking an academic position.
b These individuals were all academically employed in 1981 and 1983. The number shown represents the net number switching
from nonbehavioral to behavioral fields.
c Does not agree with line II.1 because of rounding.
SOURCES: National Research Council (1958-85, 197~84).
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100
TABLE 4.7 Projected Growth in Behavioral Science Ph.D. Faculty, 1989
High Estimate Middle Estimate
Expected size of behavioral science Ph.D.
faculty (F) in 1990
Annual growth rate in F from 1983 to 1990
Average annual increment due to faculty
expansion
Annual replacement needs due to:
death and retirements
other attritions
Expected number of academic positions to
become available annually for behavioral
science Ph.D.s
III
Low Estimate
32,930
1.45%
450
470
1,250
2,170
32,740
1.36%
420
470
1,090
1,980
32,530
1.26%
390
470
930
1,790
a Faculty in this table is defined as all academically employed Ph.D.s, excluding postdoctoral appointees, regardless of tenure
status. These projections are based on the following relationship:
(F)' = (32,500)exp(-e~ 733~0 0~2466~) + 2,500, where F = size of behavioral faculty in year t. See Appendix Table C12.
b Based on an estimated annual replacement rate of 1.5% due to death and retirement.
c Based on high, middle, and low attrition rates of 4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively.
The best estimate of behavioral science Ph.D. faculty size in 1990
is 32,740, an increase of 420 positions per year from the 1983 level
of 29,780. Attrition due to death and retirement would add 470
· .
1,090. Total annual
~ .. _~ __ positions. An upper
bound 2,170 is derived from using attrition rates of 4.0 percent per
year for "other causes." A lower bound of 1,790 is computed using
attrition rate of 3.0 percent per year for "other causes. n
positions, and other attrition would add another
demand expected under thrum ~c:~mnt-;^nc: ; c: 1 Clan
ESTIMATING PREDOCTORAL AND POSTDOCTORAL SUPPORT LEVELS
UNDER NRSA PROGRAMS
The next step in our quantitative analysis of the market is to
attempt to translate the projections of academic demand into
recommended levels of postdoctoral training under NRSA programs. This
step requires certain additional assumptions about how the system has
functioned in recent years with regard to postdoctoral training and
its sources of support.
an
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101
PostdoctomlTraining Levels
The features of the postdoctoral training system which must be
considered in addition to the projections of faculty growth and
attrition are shown in Table 4.S and are described as follows:
1)
The number of accessions to academic positions who have
(or should have) postdoctoral research training, (line 2~.
We estimate that 20 percent of all vacancies will be filled
by former postdoctoral trainees. In the best-guess case,
this number is estimated to be about 400.
TABLE 4.8 Estimated Number of Behavioral Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet
Expected Academic Demand Through 1990 Under Various Conditions
Projected 1983 90 Annual
High Middle Low Average
Estimate Estimate Estimate 1981-83
1. Academic demand for behavioral science Ph.D.s annual
average:
a. due to expansion of faculty
b. due to death and retirements
c. due to other attritions
2. Total vacancies filled by individuals with postdoctoral
research training annual average:C
3. Size of behavioral science postdoctoral pool annual
average
Size needed to meet academic demand assuming a 2-yr.
training period and portion of trainees seeking
academic positions is:
a. 60%
b. 70%
4. Annual number of behavioral science postdoctoral trainees
to be supported under NRSA programs:
a. if 40% of pool is supported under NRSA
b. if 50% of pool is supported under NRSA
c. if 60% of pool is supported under NRSA
49~570
620-720
740-860
a Assumes annual attrition rate due to death and retirement of 1.5%.
b Assumes high, middle, and low annual attrition rates due to other causes of 4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively.
c Assumes that 20% of all vacancies will be filled by individuals with postdoctoral research training in the behavioral sciences.
d Assumes that 15% of the 1981-82 Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral appointment before taking an academic position. See
Table 4.6.
2,170
450
470
1,250
4
1,980
420
470
1,090
400
1,790
390
470
930
360
1,430 1,330 1,200
1,230 1,140 1,030
460-530
570-670
680~00
2,241
770
338
1,133
1 10 - 285d
1,005
365 (1981-82)
410-480
520-600
620-720
SOURCES: Tables 4.6 and 4.7.
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102
2) The appropriate length of the postdoctoral research training
period and the proportion of trainees who aspire to research
careers (line 3~. If the appropriate length is 2 years, then
the pool size needed to produce 400 trained scientists each
year would be 800. If only 60 percent of the trainees seek
academic appointments after completing their training, then
the necessary pool size must be 1,330.
3) The proportion of support of the total pool of behavioral
science postdoctoral appointments that should be provided by
the federal government (line 4~. We are assuming a range
between 40 and 60 percent. The resulting range of NRSA
postdoctoral trainees is between 410 under the lowest set of
assumptions, and 860 under the highest set. The best-
guess assumptions yield a range of 460-800 postdoctoral
trainees in the behavioral sciences.
Predoctoral Training Levels
This analysis of the training system may also be extended to
graduate education in the behavioral sciences and the level of
predoctoral support under NRSA programs. The size of the postdoctoral
pool needed to satisfy academic demand under specified conditions was
computed in Table 4.8 (line 3) to be between 1,140 and 1,330 in the
best-guess case. This becomes the basis for estimating NRSA
predoctoral support levels as shown in Table 4.9.
If the training system requires a postdoctoral appointment of two
years duration, then between 570 and 665 postdoctoral trainees would
be expected to leave the pool each year (Table 4.9, line 2~. To
maintain a stable system, the number of Ph.D.s entering the
postdoctoral pool each year would have to equal the attrition. And if
the number of Ph.D.s who seek postdoctoral appointments is between 14
and 16 percent of each cohort, then the annual Ph.D. production rate
must be between 3,560 and 4,750 (line 3~.
The ratio of Ph.D.s granted to graduate enrollments in behavioral
fields has varied in a narrow range between 6 and ~ percent since
1960. If this ratio holds for the next few years, graduate
enrollments would have to be between 44,500 and 79,200 (line 4~.
The percentage of graduate enrollments that receives predoctoral
support from NRSA programs is small--currently around 1 percent. To
maintain the system at this level, 450 to 790 predoctoral trainees in
the behavioral sciences would be needed each year (line 5~.
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103
TABLE 4.9 Estimated Number of Behavioral Science Predoctoral Trainees to be Supported
Under NRSA Programs
Projected
198~90
Actual
1983
1. Estimated number of postdoctoral trainees
needed to satisfy demand under the
committee's most likely estimate (from
Table 4.8) 1,14~1,330 1,039
2. Annual attrition from postdoctoral pool if
average length of appointment is 2 years 57~665 520
3. Number of Ph.D.s needed each year to
maintain postdoctoral pool level if
percentage of Ph.D.s seeking a
postdoctoral appointment is:
a. 14% - 4,07~4,750 4,318
b. 16 To 3,56~4,160
4. Average graduate enrollment needed to
produce the required number of Ph.D.s if
annual completion rate is:a
a. 6% 59,30~79,200 63,500
b. 8% 44,504}59,400
5. Annual number of NRSA predoctoral
traineeships needed if 1% of graduate
students are supported under NRSA
programs 45~790 516 (1982)
_
a The completion rate is defined here as the ratio of Ph.D.s awarded to graduate enrollments in a given year. This ratio has
varied in a narrow range generally between 0.06 and 0.08 since 1960. See Appendix Tables C1 and C10.
SOURCES: Table 4.7, Appendix Tables C1 and C10.
SUMMARY
which there has been a small
Apart from nonclinical psychology, in
reduction, behavioral science Ph.D. faculty size has continued to
increase throughout the 1970s and early 1980s.
This is not due to a
general increase in faculty size--total behavioral science faculty
(including non-Ph.D.s) leveled off around 1977--but to an increase in
the Ph.D. portion at the expense of those without doctorate degrees.
The percentage of behavioral science faculty with doctorate degrees
increased from 57 percent in 1966 to 79 percent in 1983.
Projections to 1990 indicate that this growth in Ph.D. faculty
positions will continue, but at a slower pace. Judging from the age
distribution of the faculty, attrition due to death, retirement, and
other reasons is expected to accelerate toward the end of this
decade. A portion of the vacancies created by expansion and
replacement should be filled by behavioral scientists with some
postdoctoral training experience. The fraction of faculty accessions
OCR for page 104
iO4
with such experience is currently small, but the committee has
recommended that it be increased. If we assume that 20 percent of
newly hired behavioral science faculty members should have post-
doctoral training, then the appropriate level of NRSA postdoctoral
training in the behavioral sciences for the 1988-90 period should be
in the range of 460-800 trainees and fellows annually. The committee's
last recommendations for postdoctoral training in the behavioral
sciences were for 440 trainees in 1985, rising to 540 in 1987.
to maintain the current structure of the system, a
number of predoctoral awards should be provided. currently in the
behavioral science fields about 1 percent of graduate students receive
support from NRSA programs. If the system is maintained at this
level, 450-790 predoctoral training awards should be made available
annually during the period 1988-1990.
Similarly,
Representative terms from entire chapter:
behavioral sciences
