ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH

I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN

Committee on Earth Studies

Space Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN Committee on Earth Studies Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by National Aeronautics and Space Administration contract NASW-96013, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration contracts 50-DGNE-5-00210 and 50-DKNA-6-90040. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06985-8 Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN COMMITTEE ON EARTH STUDIES MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University, Chair OTIS B. BROWN, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science JOHN R. CHRISTY, University of Alabama, Huntsville CATHERINE GAUTIER, University of California at Santa Barbara DANIEL J. JACOB, Harvard University CHRISTOPHER O. JUSTICE, University of Virginia BRUCE D. MARCUS, TRW M. PATRICK McCORMICK, Hampton University DALLAS L. PECK, U.S. Geological Survey (retired) R. KEITH RANEY, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory DAVID T. SANDWELL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography LAWRENCE C. SCHOLZ, West Orange, New Jersey GRAEME L. STEPHENS, Colorado State University FAWWAZ T. ULABY, University of Michigan SUSAN L. USTIN, University of California at Davis FRANK J. WENTZ, Remote Sensing Systems EDWARD F. ZALEWSKI, University of Arizona Staff INA B. ALTERMAN, Senior Program Officer ART CHARO, Senior Program Officer CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Senior Project Assistant (to April 1999) THERESA M. FISHER, Senior Project Assistant (from April 1999)

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN SPACE STUDIES BOARD CLAUDE R. CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University FRAN BAGENAL, University of Colorado DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado ROBERT E. CLELAND, University of Washington MARILYN L. FOGEL, Carnegie Institution of Washington BILL GREEN, Former Member, U.S. House of Representatives JOHN H. HOPPS, JR., Morehouse College CHRIS J. JOHANNSEN, Purdue University RICHARD G. KRON, University of Chicago JONATHAN I. LUNINE, University of Arizona ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, Columbia University GARY J. OLSEN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign MARY JANE OSBORN, University of Connecticut Health Center GEORGE A. PAULIKAS, The Aerospace Corporation JOYCE E. PENNER, University of Michigan THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology PEDRO L. RUSTAN, JR., Ellipso, Inc. GEORGE L. SISCOE, Boston University EUGENE B. SKOLNIKOFF, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MITCHELL SOGIN, Marine Biological Laboratory NORMAN E. THAGARD, Florida State University ALAN M. TITLE, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center RAYMOND VISKANTA, Purdue University PETER W. VOORHEES, Northwestern University JOHN A. WOOD, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS PETER M. BANKS, ERIM International Inc. (retired), Co-Chair WILLIAM H. PRESS, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Co-Chair WILLIAM F. BALLHAUS, JR., Lockheed Martin Corporation SHIRLEY CHIANG, University of California at Davis MARSHALL H. COHEN, California Institute of Technology RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University SAMUEL H. FULLER, Analog Devices, Inc. MICHAEL F. GOODCHILD, University of California at Santa Barbara MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, JR., Carnegie Institution CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc. KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota JOHN R. KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company (retired) MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado DUSA M. McDUFF, State University of New York at Stony Brook JANET L. NORWOOD, Former Commissioner, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics M. ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL, Stanford University NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory ROBERT J. SPINRAD, Xerox PARC (retired) JAMES F. HINCHMAN, Acting Executive Director

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN Foreword This is the first of two reports that address the complex issue of incorporating the needs of climate research into the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). NPOESS, which has been driven by the imperative of reliably providing short-term weather information, is itself a union of heretofore separate civilian and military programs. It is a marriage of convenience to eliminate needless duplication and reduce cost, one that appears to be working. The same considerations of expediency and economy motivate the present attempts to add to NPOESS the goal of climate research. The technical complexities of combining seemingly disparate requirements are accompanied by the programmatic complexities of forging further connections among three different agencies with different mandates, cultures, and congressional appropriators. Yet the stakes are very high, and each agency gains significantly by finding ways to cooperate, as do the taxpayers. Beyond cost savings, benefits include the possibility that long-term climate observations will reveal new phenomena of interest to weather forecasters, as happened with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Conversely, climate researchers can often make good use of operational data. Necessity is the mother of invention, and the needs of all the parties involved in NPOESS should conspire to foster creative solutions to make this effort work. Although it has often been said that research and operational requirements are incommensurate, this report and the phase two report (Implementation) accentuate the degree to which they are complementary and could be made compatible. The reports provide guidelines for achieving the desired integration to the mutual benefit of all parties. Although a significant level of commitment will be needed to surmount the very real technical and programmatic impediments, the public interest would be well served by a positive outcome. Claude R. Canizares, Chair Space Studies Board

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN Preface National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) officials have long planned that Earth Observing System (EOS) missions would complement operational weather satellite systems, especially the Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).1 Based on a close collaboration between NASA and NOAA, the early plans for EOS were made with the expectation that many of the EOS sensors would eventually become part of the operational observing system. However, as the plans matured, it became evident that the large facility-class instruments such as MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), desired by NASA to meet the research needs of Earth system science, would not be affordable for NOAA. In 1996, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee on Earth Studies (CES) was approached by NASA to review its plans for the second series of EOS missions. Although the original plans for EOS called for repeated flights of the same sensors on all three phases to ensure data continuity,2 NASA was then in the midst of redesigning its strategy to incorporate more flexibility so that it could take advantage of new scientific understanding as well as new technology. However, there was still an underlying need to ensure continuity of critical data sets to study climate-related processes. At the same time, NOAA and the Department of Defense had been tasked with developing a “converged” system of polar-orbiting satellites, rather than continuing to operate separate polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems (POES and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program—DMSP). Thus there appeared to be an opportunity to foster closer collaboration between NASA, NOAA, and DOD through the emerging National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). Such collaboration could facilitate insertion of NASA-developed technology into the NPOESS missions as well as fulfillment of some of the EOS science requirements by the NPOESS measurements. To this end, the Integrated Program Office (IPO) for NPOESS was established to develop a joint program. The fundamental objective of the task statement guiding this study (Appendix A) was exploration of the opportunities for a stronger relationship between the developing EOS second series (now canceled) and NPOESS to maximize the scientific opportunities for climate research. At that time, NASA's plans for EOS revolved around the continuation of 24 critical data sets. However, subsequent to definition of the original statement of 2   EOS missions were planned to provide at least 15 years of continuous observations. After launch, each of the principal EOS spacecraft, which had an on-orbit design life of 5 years, was planned to be repeated twice. 1   See, for example, the chapter “EOS Program” in Ghassem Asrar and Reynold Greenstone, eds., 1995 MTPE/EOS Reference Handbook, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., 1995.

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN task, NASA moved to a different approach based on key scientific questions to be developed by the Earth science community. These questions may or may not require continuity of the 24 critical data sets; NASA has engaged the Earth science community in a process to define these continuity requirements. Changes also occurred in the IPO's plans for NPOESS; in particular, the complement of sensor concepts for the satellite was fixed, thereby defining the limits of the planned observing system. The scope of the committee's potential recommendations that would be thought practical by the IPO was similarly affected, as described below. In its letter report of May 27, 1998, “On Climate Change Research Measurements from NPOESS,” CES noted that there are many scientific, technical, and programmatic issues associated with integrating the measurement responsibilities of research agencies with those of operational agencies. Using as a framework the broad area of climate research, which includes monitoring climate change as well as understanding climate processes and impacts, the committee has continued its study of these issues. The committee uses the notion of climate observation in its broadest sense, to include monitoring climate change, understanding underlying processes, and estimating the impacts of climate change. Thus its definition extends far beyond the physical climate system; it includes biological processes as well as the linkages between the ocean, atmosphere, and land system. In this context, a satellite observing system will be required that combines elements of long-term measurements in an operational setting, systematic measurements using research satellites, and exploratory, process-oriented research missions.3 The committee notes that it has focused on issues relevant to climate research and acknowledges that this represents but one aspect of the broad spectrum of Earth observations for research and applications. The others also represent areas imbued with both compelling scientific merit and pressing societal urgency. Nevertheless, the committee 's charge and perspective focus on climate research. With regard to the original charge (Appendix A), the committee modified its study in response to changes in both the NASA and NPOESS strategies. Although the focus remains on the integration of research and operational missions for Earth science, the study does not consider the EOS AM-2 or PM-2 missions, which are no longer part of the NASA plan. Since IPO/NPOESS has determined its measurement suite, the study does not explicitly examine issues regarding new sensors for NPOESS. The study focuses on the additional capabilities that are required to meet climate research goals and their technical and programmatic implications, particularly for NPOESS. This phase one report also examines issues of program synchronization with regard to schedule as well as maintaining sufficient program flexibility. Lastly, the committee studied science requirements for data interoperability and continuity in the context of climate research. To accomplish this, the committee selected for review eight representative measurement sets based on their breadth of implementation with regard to research and operational satellite missions. Some of the measurement sets have been part of the operational missions for decades, while others are just now being proposed for a transition from research to integration with the operational program. While these eight measurement sets are important for climate research, the committee is not implying that they were selected because they are the most critical measurements. Instead, these eight were reviewed to identify and highlight common issues associated with the integration of operational and research missions. This report identifies and discusses issues related to the challenges posed by EOS and NPOESS integration; it also suggests an approach to achieve a rational balance of the available observing resources and assets that can be leveraged for climate research. The committee 's forthcoming phase two report examines technical approaches to data continuity and interoperability, sensor replenishment, and the infusion of new technology.4 The phase two report also considers issues in instrument calibration and data product validation. 3   National Research Council (NRC). 1998. Overview, Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 4   National Research Council, Space Studies Board. 2000. Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research: II. Implementation, forthcoming.

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Frederick J. Doyle, U.S. Geological Survey (retired); Charles Elachi, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Anthony W. England, University of Michigan; John E. Estes, University of California at Santa Barbara; Richard M. Goody, Falmouth, Massachusetts; Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington; Jerry D. Mahlman, Geophysics Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA; John McElroy, University of Texas at Arlington; Owen M. Phillips, Johns Hopkins University; Steven Running, University of Montana; John Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology; Robert J. Serafin, National Center for Atmospheric Research; W. James Shuttleworth, University of Arizona; and Bruce A. Wielicki, NASA Langley Research Center. Although the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1  1   INTEGRATING RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL MISSIONS IN SUPPORT OF CLIMATE RESEARCH   7      Weather and Climate,   8      Long-term Measurements,   8      NASA's Approach to Long-term Observations,   10      NOAA's Approach to Long-term Observations,   11      Joint NASA/IPO Plans,   13      Integrating Climate Research at the Federal Level,   14      Identifying Relevant Issues: Review of Eight Measurement Sets,   15      References,   15  2   ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS   17      Introduction,   17      A Brief Historical Perspective,   18      Observing Strategies,   21      Evolution Strategy,   22      Challenges Ahead,   23      References,   23  3   SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE   25      Introduction,   25      Basic Science Issues,   25      Future Directions,   28      Observing Strategy,   29      Calibration and Validation,   32      Data Management,   34      Evolution Strategy,   35      References,   35

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN  4   LAND COVER   37      Introduction,   37      Basic Science Issues,   37      Future Directions,   39      Current Satellite Sampling Strategies,   40      Current Observation Systems,   40      Observing Strategies,   42      International Aspects of Land-Cover Observation,   44      What Is Needed in Addition to What Is Planned,   45      Calibration and Validation and Mission Overlap Strategies,   49      Data Processing and Management,   51      The Necessary Observation Strategy,   51      Areas for Research and Development,   52      Bibliography,   53  5   OCEAN COLOR   57      Introduction,   57      Basic Science Issues,   57      Observing Strategy,   61      Data Products,   63      Calibration and Validation,   65      Evolution Strategy,   66      References,   67  6   SOIL MOISTURE   68      Introduction,   68      Basic Science Issues,   69      Observing Strategy of Current and Future Satellite Sensors,   78      Calibration and Validation,   78      Evolution Strategy,   80      References,   81  7   AEROSOLS   82      Introduction,   82      Basic Science Issues,   82      Observing Strategy,   86      Calibration and Validation Strategy,   93      Data Management,   95      Evolution Strategy,   95      Bibliography,   96  8   OZONE   99      Introduction,   99      Basic Science Issues,   100      Observing Strategy,   105      Calibration and Validation,   106      Evolution Strategy,   107      References,   108

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ISSUES IN THE INTEGRATION OF RESEARCH AND OPERATIONAL SATELLITE SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH: I. SCIENCE AND DESIGN  9   EARTH RADIATION BUDGET   109      Introduction,   109      Radiation Budget in the Satellite Era,   111      Observing Strategy,   111      Calibration and Validation Strategies,   114      Opportunities,   115      Limitations and the Evolution Strategy,   115      References,   116  10   ISSUES, CHALLENGES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS   117      Common Issues,   117      The Challenges of Space-based Climate Research,   119      Recommendations,   121      References,   124     APPENDIXES       A Statement of Task,   127     B Acronyms and Abbreviations,   129

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