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OCR for page 75
APPENDIX B
UPDATED MORTALITY STUDY (SUMMARY)
by
Robert J. Keehn
The mortality analysis reported in Possible Lona-Term Health
Effects of Short-Term Exposure to Chemical Agents: Volume 1 was based
on 12,195 chemical exposures reported by the Army, including 548
exposures to unclassifiable substances (chemicals of uncertain
identity). Further searching by the Army has established the identity
of most of the unclassifiable chemicals, reducing the number from 548
to 187. In its search, the Army found 1,454 tests that had not been
included in the reported mortality analysis (see Table B-1~. As a
result, the total number of exposures has increased from the 20,851 of
the reported mortality analysis to 22,305. Of the 1,454 additional
exposures, 1,024 were to some chemical and 430 involved equipment
testing without chemicals. Increases in numbers of exposures to the
various types of chemicals range from zero (analgesics) to 379
(irritants and vesicants). Percentage increases in numbers of
exposures were large in the cases of stimulants (356%), psycho-
chemicals (185%), LSD derivatives (51Yo), and miscellaneous exposures
(31%~.
The number of volunteers who participated in the tests did not
change. However, the reporting of 1,454 additional tests by the Army
has changed the numbers of men in the various groups used in the mor-
tality comparisons (Table B-2~. The number of men who participated
only in tests of equipment (no chemical exposure) decreased from 1,719
to 1,587. The number of men exposed to each class of chemicals,
except the unclassifiable, increased; the numbers of participants
exposed only to the cholinesterase Deactivators, the irritants and
vesicants, and the LSD derivatives increased; and numbers of parti-
cipants exposed only to the anticholinesterases and the anticholin-
ergics decreased.
The shifting of men and the corresponding deaths among the
comparison groups necessitated that the experience be reanalyzed
(Tables B-3 and B-4~. The numbers of observed and expected deaths and
the standard mortality ratios differ somewhat from those previously
reported. But the conclusion in Volume 1 is unchanged: "It can be
concluded that
over the time span examined here, there is no evidence
that volunteer participation in the testing programs had any long-term
adverse effect on mortality."
-75-
OCR for page 76
TABLE B-1
Numbers of Test Exposures Reported to the Army
Initially and in Revision
No. Test Exposures
Reported by Army
Initial Revised Changes
Type of Exposure Report Report No. %
Chemical 12,195 13,219 1,024 8.4
Anticholinesterase 1,697 1,820 123 7.2
Anticholinergic 2,656 2,739 83 3.1
Cholinesterase deactivator 1,004 1,072 68 6.8
Psychochemical (Sernyl) 40 114 74 185.0
Irritant or vesicant 2,482 2,861 379 15.3
Analgesic 47 47 0 0.0
Stimulant 18 82 64 355.6
Cannabinoid 259 260 1 0.4
Miscellaneous 118 155 37 31.4
LSD derivative 511 772 261 51.1
Innocuous chemical 502 562 60 12.0
Approved drug 1,636 1,786 150 9.2
Control substance 677 762 85 12.6
Unclassifiable 548 187 -361 -65.9
Equipment (no chemical) 8 , 656 9, 086 430 5.0
Total 20,851 22,305 1,454 7.0
a From initially reported numbers; unclassifiable
chemical exposures decreased, and all other categories
except analgesics increased.
-76-
OCR for page 77
TABLE B-2
Numbers of Test Subjects Included in
First and Second Mortality Analysesa
No. Subjects in
First AnalYsis
No. Subjects in
Second Anal~sis
Type of Exposure Total Onlv Not Onlv Total Only Not Onlv
Anticholinesterase
Anticholinergic
Cholinesterase reactivator
Psychochemical (Sernyl)
Irritant or vesicant
Analgesic
Stimulant
Cannabinoid
Miscellaneous
LSD derivative
Innocuous or
control chemical
Approved drug
Unclassifiable
Equipment (no chemical)
1,465
1,749
690
NI
1,901
NI
NI
252
NI
NI
NI
NI
NI
NI
507
570
83
NI
855
NI
NI
NI
NI
103
958
1,179
607
NI
1,046
NI
NI
NI
NI
NI
106 NI
159 NI
NI NI
1,719 NI
1,567
1,794
745
NI
2,125
NI
NI
253
NI
NI
NI
NI
NI
NI
496 1,071
544 1,250
92 653
NI NI
877 1,248
NI NI
NI NI
NI NI
NI NI
184 NI
101 NI
160 NI
NI NI
1,587 NI
Total 6,620 4,102 2,518 6,620 4,041 2,579
a NI = test group not included in mortality study
-77-
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TABLE B-4
Observed and Expected Deaths
Among Test Subjects, by Chemical
No. No. Deaths
Chemical Subjects Observed Expected O/E
Anticholinesterase only 496 20
28.9 0.69
Sarin only 135 9 10.0 0.90
VX only
290 11 15.7 0.70
Remainder of group 71 0
3.2 0.0
Anticholinergic only 544 21 17.0 1.24
BZ only 102 5 5.4 0.93
EA 3443 only 27 . 1 1.1 0.91
EA 3580 only 38 0 1.1 0.0
Scopolamine only 58 4 1.4 2.86
Atropine only 40 3 1.3 2.31
EA 3834 only 56 1 1.1 0.91
Remainder of group 223 7 5.6 1.25
Irritant only
Mustard only
Remainder of group
877 14 31.0 0.45
52 2 ~ 2.0 1.00
825 12
-81-
29.0 0.41
OCR for page 82
Representative terms from entire chapter:
exposures reported
