NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This study was supported by Order No. 95-55 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The immigration debate : studies on the economic, demographic, and fiscal effects of immigration / James P. Smith and Barry Edmonston, editors.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-309-05998-4 (pbk.)
1. United States—Emigration and immigration—Economic aspects. 2. United States—Emigration and immigration—Case studies I. Smith, James P. (James Patrick), 1943- II. Edmonston, Barry.
JV6471 .I445 1998
330.973—ddc21
97-45468
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Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PANEL ON DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON IMMIGRATION
JAMES P. SMITH (Chair),
RAND, Santa Monica, California
ALAN J. AUERBACH,
Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
GEORGE J. BORJAS,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
THOMAS ESPENSHADE,
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
RICHARD FREEMAN,
Department of Economics, Harvard University, and Labor Studies, National Bureau of Economic Research
JOHN F. GEWEKE,
Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
CHARLES HIRSCHMAN,
Department of Sociology, University of Washington
ROBERT INMAN,
Department of Finance, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania
GUILLERMINA JASSO,
Department of Sociology, New York University
RONALD D. LEE,
Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley
MARY WATERS,
Department of Sociology, Harvard University
FINIS R. WELCH,
Department of Economics, Texas A&M University
BARRY EDMONSTON, Study Director
KRISTIN McCUE, Research Associate
JOEL ROSENQUIST, Senior Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION 1997
RONALD D. LEE (Chair),
Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
JOHN BONGAARTS,
The Population Council, New York
JOHN B. CASTERLINE,
The Population Council, New York
LINDA G. MARTIN,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
JANE MENKEN,
Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder
ROBERT A. MOFFITT,
Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
MARK R. MONTGOMERY,
The Population Council, New York
W. HENRY MOSLEY,
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
ALBERTO PALLONI,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison
JAMES P. SMITH,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
BARNEY COHEN, Director
JOHN HAAGA, Director (through November 1997)
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1997
NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair),
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
JULIE DAVANZO,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
WILLIAM F. EDDY,
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
JOHN F. GEWEKE,
Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
JOEL B. GREENHOUSE,
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
ERIC A. HANUSHEK,
W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy and Department of Economics, University of Rochester
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE,
Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
CHARLES F. MANSKI,
Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS,
Department of Economics, Yale University
JANET L. NORWOOD,
The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.
EDWARD B. PERRIN,
School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington
PAUL R. ROSENBAUM,
Department of Statistics, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania
KEITH F. RUST,
Westat, Inc., Rockville, Maryland
FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO,
Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis
MIRON L. STRAF, Director
CONTRIBUTORS
JAY BHATTACHARYA,
Department of Economics, Stanford University
SUSAN B. CARTER,
Department of Economics, University of California, Riverside
MICHAEL S. CLUNE,
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
THOMAS J. ESPENSHADE,
Department of Sociology and Office of Population Research, Princeton University
WILLIAM H. FREY,
Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
EDWARD FUNKHOUSER,
Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
DEBORAH L. GARVEY,
Department of Economics, Princeton University
JOHN HAGAN,
Faculty of Law, University of Toronto, Canada
RONALD D. LEE,
Departments of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley
KAO-LEE LIAW,
Department of Geography, McMaster University, Ontario, Canada
THOMAS MaCURDY,
Department of Economics and Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution
TIMOTHY W. MILLER,
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
THOMAS NECHYBA,
Department of Economics, Stanford University
ALBERTO PALLONI,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison
JAMES P. SMITH,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
RICHARD SUTCH,
Departments of Economics and History and Institute of Business and Economic Research, University of California, Berkeley
DANIEL TREFLER,
Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto, and Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago
STEPHEN J. TREJO,
Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
Acknowledgments
In 1990, Congress appointed a bipartisan Commission on Immigration Reform to review the nation's immigration policies and laws. In turn, the commission asked the National Research Council to convene a panel of experts to assess the demographic, economic, and fiscal consequences of immigration. The panel was not asked to answer all the current questions about immigration or to recommend policy. Rather, the goal was to improve the scientific foundation for public discussion and policy making around a few key issues. In 1997, the panel released its report, entitled The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration , which contains its main findings and conclusions. This companion volume contains the detailed background papers that the panel commissioned along the way.
This book is the product of a great deal of hard work by a set of dedicated authors, to whom I am very grateful. In addition, I thank the U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform for its financial support and commission staff members Susan Forbes Martin, Lindsay Lowell, and David Howell for their efforts during the development of the project. At the National Research Council, Barbara Boyle Torrey, executive director of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, was an important source of help and encouragement. The work took place under the general direction of John Haaga and Miron Straf. Barry Edmonston provided a constant intellectual and managerial presence, aided by several other current and former staff members including Kristin McCue, Karen Foote, and Barney Cohen. Elaine McGarraugh skillfully edited the manuscript. LaTanya Johnson prepared the papers for publication. I thank them all.
James P. Smith, Chair
Panel on the Demographic and Economic Impacts of Immigration
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Contents
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Fiscal Studies |
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The Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants: A California Case Study Michael S. Clune |
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Labor Market Studies |
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Immigrants and Natives in General Equilibrium Trade Models Daniel Trefler |
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Historical, Demographic, and Social Consequences |
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Historical Background to Current Immigration Issues Susan B. Carter and Richard Sutch |
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Immigration and Crime in the United States John Hagan and Alberto Palloni |
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