Evaluating Welfare Reform in an Era of Transition (2001) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-12
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Second, what types of data are needed to measure the effects of welfare reform? Are federal and state data sources currently available sufficient to carry out needed evaluations, and, if not, what investments in that infrastructure are needed?
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There are many important questions that have not been addressed at all or not adequately addressed. Little is known about the effects of specific individual reform strategies, for example, a human capital approach versus a work-first approach or a set of relatively strict work requirements versus a set of less strict work requirements.
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National-level survey data sets are of limited sample size, have significant problems of nonresponse, and are not readily able to adjust the content of questions on welfare program participation to the devolved structure of programs. Moreover, serious delays in producing key data sets have limited publicly available data for the post-PRWORA period, making it very difficult to examine TANF outcomes.
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There have been some studies on these special need groups but much more is needed. Outcomes of Interest The welfare reform act of 1996 had many goals, ranging from increasing work and self-sufficiency for poor families, to reducing out-of-wedlock births and promoting marriage, to reducing welfare caseloads, and to giving states more flexibility and control over their own programs.
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Nevertheless, the main limitations in studying different outcomes have been related to gaps in methods and data availability, not lack of interest in the outcomes themselves. Research Questions of Interest In outlining a broad research agenda for understanding the effects of welfare reform and for future assessments of reform, the panel has identified three types of questions of interest for understanding welfare reform: monitoring questions, which concern trends in the well-being of the low income population and its subgroups; questions about what rules govern recipients and how welfare reform has affected state and local welfare systems themselves; and formal evaluation questions, which assess the effect of welfare reform on individuals and families relative to what would have happened in its absence.
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Recommendation 3.1 The panel recommends that ASPE take primary responsibility for publicly defining the questions of interest for welfare reform research and evaluation, identifying emerging issues for social welfare programs, and defining alternative detailed strategies and policies that address the what-works-and-for-whom questions. In doing so, ASPE should expand its current activities in seeking input from states, private foundations, and other stakeholders on emerging policy and evaluation issues.
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Conclusion 4.3 Experimental methods are a powerful tool for evaluating the effects of broad components and detailed strategies within a fixed overall reform environment and for evaluating incremental changes in welfare programs. However, experimental methods have limitations and should be complemented with nonexperimental analyses to obtain a complete picture of the effects of reform.
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ACE is primarily a programmatic department charged with administering social welfare programs aimed at families and children. It is also responsible for collecting administrative data on TANF and related programs from the states, but these data are collected to assess state performance and compliance with federal mandates; they are not collected with the primary purpose of research or program evaluation.
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The need for methodological leadership. oil en we r, ncreased capacity for data collection and analysis, technical assistance to states for developing their own surveys and administrative data, leadership in addressing data confidentiality issues, and guidance in the development of data archives dedicated to social program data leads the panel to recommend that alternative administrative mechanisms be considered.
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National Surveys The organizational entity that is assigned responsibility would be the primary sponsor of the national surveys used to monitor and evaluate human service and social welfare programs and, in general, content related to the low income population. It would contract with the Census Bureau or with private survey organizations to conduct these surveys.
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One set of reports would be based on the data submitted by the states through the cooperative data collection effort mentioned above. It should also collect and publish social welfare program rules and policies, particularly for TANF and related separate state programs, for every state and every sub-state area where appropriate.
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The charge to the pane! is to review methods and data needed to evaluate the outcomes of changes in social welfare programs on families and individuals.
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