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Work Now and In the Future
Pages 330-348

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From page 330...
... We begin the discussion with an overview of the growth and decline of occupations in the past and the projected trends for the future. This discussion focuses on the types of jobs that have produced the highest percentage of musculoskeletal disorders injury reports in the last decade those associated with materials handling and the expected changes anticipated in these jobs in the next decade.
From page 331...
... For our purposes, it is important to note that there are many physical jobs in the service industry (e.g., nursing, parcel delivery, maintenance) and many jobs with no physical demands beyond those traditionally associated with office work in the goods-producing industries (managers, accountants, etc.~.
From page 332...
... , and is therefore not directly comparable with data published in Employment and Earnings. CExcludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector SIC 08.09 (forestry and fisheries)
From page 333...
... 333 Type of Stressor Overrepresented Sectors Heavy dynamic work Active light work Static work Proprioceptive input Information load Mental stress Environmental stress Building, agriculture, home Manufacturing, home Transportation, communications Building, public sector Service, public sector Service, public sector Mining, manufacturing, building TABLE 9.3 Employment by Major Occupational Group, 1986, 1996, and Projected 2006 (after Silvestri, 1997) Numbers in Thousands of Jobs Employment Number Percent Distribution Occupational Group 1986 1996 2006 1986 1996 2006 Total, all occupations Executive, administrative, and managerial Professional specialty Technicians and related support 3,724 Marketing and sales 11,496 Administrative support, including clerical Service Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations Precision production, craft, and repair 111,375 10,568 13,542 13,589 18,173 20,871 24,019 17,427 21,294 3,661 4,618 5,558 14,633 16,897 3,785 13,832 14,446 132,353 150,927 100.0 15,866 22,998 12.2 25,825 18.7 25,174 15.6 3,823 3.3 15,448 12.4 00.0 100.0 10.2 13.7 3.3 3.5 10.3 11.1 18.1 16.1 2.9 10.9 10.5 15.2 3.7 11.2 17.1 16.7 2.5 10.2 Operators, fabricators, and laborers 16,206 17,843 19,365 13.6 13.5 12.8 of workers will fall into the latter three categories in 2007.
From page 334...
... It is clear from these projections that the future of work will still include a large number of employees performing highly physical jobs involving manual materials handling tasks. This suggests that the workplace of the future will continue to contain risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders.
From page 335...
... These trends, coupled with the continued promise of automation of heavy industrial tasks, suggest a decrease in workplace risk factors associated with manual lifting tasks. EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE NATURE OF WORK This section provides a general overview of factors that have influenced work in the past and are expected to have a continuing effect in the
From page 336...
... In 1998, there were over 16 million Americans age 55 or older still working; by 2006, workers 55 years and older will constitute 20 percent of the entire workforce. By 2010, the baby boom generation will start to reach age 65, and between now and then there will be a 16 percent growth in jobs but only a 4 percent growth in population.
From page 337...
... Note that all of these demographic considerations are for increased workforce participation. At current historical lows in overall unemployment, more of the population as a whole is now working and thus potentially exposed to musculoskeletal disorder risk factors.
From page 338...
... From the point of view of musculoskeletal disorders, the rise of technology not only increases the exposure of the workers to computer interfaces (including keyboards and screens) , but also it creates more variability in work tasks and more psychosocial demands for quick turnaround performance.
From page 339...
... It is anticipated that these types of advances and others will be encouraged as long as managers believe that improved speed and efficiency in production will more than compensate for the cost of such equipment and that the number of lost hours from disabilities experienced by production line employees will decline. A prime example of materials handling jobs in the future is the type of work performed in the growing number of distribution centers.
From page 340...
... However, the pervasive time stress and the social isolation in these jobs may result in negative psychosocial pressures that can adversely affect worker productivity and job satisfaction. A1though there are many shifts away from heavy lifting jobs, there are jobs such as picking and placing that could increase the risk factors for upperextremity musculoskeletal disorders.
From page 341...
... As the office of the future evolves and a greater number of individuals engage in computer-interactive work (from a variety of remote locations, including home offices) , there will be a need to carefully examine the implications of new interface devices for musculoskeletal disorder risk factors.
From page 342...
... First, round-the-clock operations require round-the-clock support. This implies increased shift work, as well as the stresses and satisfaction that may arise from direct customer interaction.
From page 343...
... Downsizing 1 J For industrial workers, major overall results are job loss in developed economies, temporary jobs, longer hours of work, more people with two jobs, and subcontract jobs instead of regular employment (Rifkin, 1995~. Global competition has forced many companies to downsize their workforce to remain competitive and increase shareholder value.
From page 344...
... . Long working hours, particularly in manual labor jobs, can lead to fatigue and greater exposure to musculoskeletal disorder risk factors.
From page 345...
... The Shift Is from Manufacturing to Service But Manual Labor Jobs Remain Manual materials handling jobs are moving from manufacturing to service/delivery organizations as more repetitive tasks in production systems are automated. When there is little variability between task cycles,
From page 346...
... Thus, exposure to musculoskeletal disorder risk may be increasing in service industries even as it declines in manufacturing. The high variability of manual materials handling tasks in the service industry provides some variety in postures and loads from cycle to cycle.
From page 347...
... These trends have implications for an increase in the role of negative psychosocial factors in reports of illness or injury in the workplace. Other factors contributing heavily to the psychosocial environment include reduced job security, more temporary jobs, and outsourcing.
From page 348...
... 1997. Risk factors for carpal tunnel syndrome In a general population.


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